Five causes of the Arab Uprising

By Ignacio Ramonet Le Monde Diplomatique en Espaol No. 185, March 2011 What has caused the winds of liberty which, from Morocco to Bahrain, passing through Libya and Egypt, are now blowing through the Arab world? For what reasons are these simultaneous movements for democracy being expressed at this particular moment? For these two questions, the answers are diverse: historical, political, economic, environmental and social. 1. Historical. Since the end of the First World War and the implosion of the Ottoman Empire, the interest of western powers in the Arab World (the Near East and North Africa) has had two main incentives: to control oil and to guarantee a Jewish nation. After the Second World War and the universal trauma of the Holocaust, the creation of the State of Israel in 1948 had as a counterpart a rise to power, in various Arab states liberated from colonialism, anti-Zionist forces (opposed to the existence of Israel) in the style of nationalist military in Egypt and Yemen, or of the socialist Arab character in Iraq, Syria, Libya and Algeria. Three lost wars against Israel (in 1956, 1967 and 1973) led to Egypt and Jordan signing peace treaties with the Jewish state, and aligning with the United states which already controlled under the Cold War all the petro-monarchies on the Arabic peninsula like Libya, Tunisia and Morocco. In this way, Washington and its western allies maintained their two major priorities: the control of petrol and the security of Israel. At the same time, they protected the permanence of ferocious tyrannies (Hassan II, General Mubarak, General Ben Ali, the Saudi Kings Faisal, Fahd and Abdullah, etc) and sacrificed any democratic aspirations of those societies. 2. Political. In the states of alleged Arab Socialism (Iraq, Syria, Libya and Algeria), under the convenient pretext of an anti-imperialist struggle and the communist hunt, single-party dictatorships were also established, governed with an iron hand by despots (Saddam Hussein, the Assad father and son, Muammar Al-Gaddafi, the most insane of all). Dictatorships which would otherwise guarantee the provision of oil to the western powers and that wouldnt threaten Israel (when Iraq tried to do so it was destroyed). And so, a slab of silence and terror fell on the Arab people. Waves of democratization occurred in the rest of the world. In the 1970s, the dictatorships in Portugal, Spain and Greece disappeared. Then in Turkey in 1983. After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the Soviet Union collapsed along with the real socialism of Eastern Europe. In Latin America the military dictatorships fell in the 1990s. Meanwhile, scarce kilometres from the European Union, with the complicity of the western powers (Spain among them), the Arab world went on frozen in its state of autocracy.

As no form of critical expression was permitted, protest was located in the only place where meetings were not prohibited: in the mosque. And around the only book that was not censored: the Koran. In this way the Islamists were strengthened. The most reactionary were diffused by Saudi Arabia with Washingtons strong support that found in them an argument to maintain the Arab people in submission (the meaning of the word Islam). But also, especially after the Islamic Revolution of 1979 in Iran, rose a political Islam which found in the verses of the Koran argument for reclaiming social justice and denouncing corruption, nepotism and tyranny. From there sprang several more radical branches, willing to conquer power with violence and Holy War. And so arose Al Qaeda . . . After the attacks of September 11 2001, the western powers, with the complicity of the friendly dictators, found a new reason to keep Arabic societies under tight control: the fear of Islamism. Rather than understanding that this was a consequence of the lack of freedom and the absence of social justice, they added more injustice, more despotism, more repression . . . 3. Economic. Several Arabic states suffered the repercussions of the global crisis of 2008. Many workers in these countries, having emigrated to Europe, lost their jobs. The volume of the remittances sent to their families diminished. The tourist industry withered. The price of oil (rising in recent weeks due to the popular uprising in Libya) fell. Simultaneously, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) imposed, in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, programs to privatise public services, drastically reducing state budgets, cutting the number of state workers Severe adjustment plans that worsened, if possible, the lives of the poor and in particular threatened to undermine the situation of the urban middle classes (those which had access to computers, mobile phones and social networks) throwing them into poverty. 4. Environmental. In this already-explosive context, last summer, an ecological disaster was experienced in a region distant from the Arab world. But this is one planet. Over a number of weeks, Russia, one of the main exporters of grains in the world, experienced the worst wave of heat and fires in its history. A third of its wheat crops were destroyed. Moscow suspended exports of grains (which are also used for feeding livestock), the price of which immediately rose some 45%. This increase had repercussions for food: bread, meat milk, chicken Causing, starting in December 2010, the highest increase in food prices since 1990. In the Arab world, one of the main regions importing these products, protests against the high cost of living multiplied 5. Social. Add to all that: a very young population and monumental levels of unemployment. The impossibility of emigrating because Europe has closed its borders and blatantly established agreements to ensure that the Arab autocracies would take care of the dirty work of containing illegal immigrants. The grabbing of the best positions by the cliques of some of the most archaic dictatorships on the planet

It only required a spark to ignite the grasses. There were two. Both in Tunisia. First, on the 17th of December, the self-immolation of Mohamed Buazizi, a street vendor selling fruit, as a sign of the condemnation of tyranny. And secondly, passed on through mobile phones, social networks (Facebook, Twitter), Email and the Al-Jazeera network, the revelations of Wikileaks regarding the concrete reality of the shameful mafia system established by the Ben Ali-Trabelsi clan. The role of social networks has been fundamental. They have permitted the crossing of the wall of fear: to know in advance that tens of thousands of people are going to protest on day D and at hour H is a guarantee that one wont be protesting in exposed isolation against the systemic repression. This swarm strategys Tunisian success is going to shake the entire Arab world. Timo Behr and Mika Aaltola examine the causes and impacts of the recent uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia in conjunction with the subsequent uprisings seen throughout the Middle East in The Arab Uprising: Causes, Prospects and Implications. They present the similarities seen within Middle Eastern countries and how the economic, political, and dignity deficits seen in these countries could facility increased changes within the Middle East. The main findings Behr and Aaltola came to are found below.

The popular uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia have been triggered by a combination of deteriorating living standards and growing inequality (an economic deficit), a lack of political freedoms and public accountability (a political deficit), and the alienation of the demographically dominant age cohorts from the political order (a dignity deficit). While similar conditions exist in a number of Arab countries, socio-economic indicators suggest that the intensity of these deficits varies considerably across the Arab world. As a result, the nature and shape of protests across the region might differ. However, protests across the region have also been driven by a powerful contagion effect working on an ideational and emotional level. This contagion has been facilitated by satellite broadcasters, mobile phones, the internet, and new social media tools that elude government control and helped create new cleavages and loyalties. The outcome of the mass protests is likely to vary in accordance with the nature and level of cohesion of the incumbent regimes and their ability to maintain their monopoly on the use of force. While in some cases this might lead to a democratic transition from the bottom up, in other cases the outcome may be more gradual top-down reforms, a government crackdown on protestors or even a disintegration of the state. On a systemic level, the Arab uprising will create a new political and economic reality in the Middle East and transform the regional balance of power. While Western influence in the region will inevitably decline as a result, the Arab revolutions also have an undeniable potential to enhance regional cooperation, reduce the appeal of terrorism and help break the current deadlock in the peace process.