EDUCTION SIMULATION MODEL FORM

The purpose of this form is to guide in the assessment of a particular education simulation
model (ESM) to be listed in the inter-agency portal on ESM, hosted by UNESCO. The form
will allow determining the contexts and environment of the development and application of
an ESM, as well as its specific features in terms of data requirements, decision points,
coverage of education levels, supporting software, stages of planning cycle for use. Some of
the questions below may overlap, please indicate whatever information you deem most
relevant. A selected number of ESMs will be listed as examples (max. 10) and others will be
stored in the database for being searched and downloaded by other users.

1. NAME: Provide the name (if any) under which the model or modelling approach is
generally known.

MNF (Modelo de Necesidades Financieras) Financial Needs Model

2. YEAR OF CREATION: Specify the year when the model or modelling approach
was first created.

2003

3. YEAR OF LATEST USE: Specify the latest year when the model was designed,
applied or used for a specific country or planning context.

2008

4. COUNTRY: List a country or a group of countries in which the model or modelling

approach was used (write NA, if the modelling approach is “generic”, applicable to a
number of countries).

Nicaragua, Guatemala, and Guyana

5. LANGUAGE: List the languages in which the model or modelling approach is

available.

Spanish and English

6. SCOPE OF UTILISATION: Indicate if the model or modelling approach is applied

or applicable to national level and/or sub-national planning contexts, institution level
(school, university, etc.), MTEF, FTI, a particular sub-sector, a set of sub-sectors or
sector-wide planning, etc.

It has been used for sector wide planning of all school levels except the tertiary
education level. In Guatemala, the model was replicated at a subnational level.

7. BRIEF DESCRIPTION (1/2 page max.): Describe briefly what the model or
modelling approach is designed to do, for what type of audience, for what planning

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 purpose and stage, for what levels of education, at what level of detail (e.g. overall
formal primary—or grade by grade detail), which projections (e.g. enrolment only,
other resources, mere projections, and/or finance simulation inclusive) and which
policy initiatives it best supports (e.g. EFA, gender parity, SWAps, etc.).

The MNF model was developed in 2003 by a team at the Ministry of Education of
Nicaragua to determine the financial requirements of the Nicaraguan government to
achieve its education policy and goals. In Nicaragua, the MNF allowed the Ministry of
Education to improve its planning capacity and establish a budget with a results-based
approach. The MNF became an essential instrument to facilitate policy dialogue
between donors and government in the establishment of a sector wide approach
(SWAp). The Nicaraguan education SWAp led to the mobilization of more than 100
million dollars in international grants to support the implementation of the Common
Work Plan (CWP) that was put in place by using the MNF. In 2006, it was also applied
to Guatemala with some new capabilities and updates and currently is has been
adapted to cost the new Education Sector Strategy of the government of Guyana. It
also important to point out, that the government of Nicaragua is in the process of
updating their MNF model to fit the new policy objectives of the government (in 2006
a new government was elected and policy objectives were changed).

MNF uses the system dynamics approach, which has been applied successfully in the
business world as well as in ecological modeling. The system dynamics approach is
characterized by the inclusion of feedback mechanisms. It also requires the developer
to break the system down into smaller constituent pieces, each of which may be
relatively simple on its own, but which, together, produce a complex, dynamic system.
The software used is specifically designed to simulate such a system.
The commercial software, iThink, is used for the model. iThink allows the developer
to build the model as a flow-diagram, with boxes and arrows that represent live
variables and algorithms. The results are displayed in line and bar charts (tabulations
are also possible). The graphical approach facilitates, both for the modeler and user,
tracking the assumed relationships. The user can change assumptions and display
multiple simulations on the graphs, showing trade-offs between alternate future
developments. The tool also allows a modeler to perform a sensitivity analysis to
identify which variables in a system are most important to a particular outcome.

8. DECISION POINTS: Indicate the major decision points to operate the model and to
generate projections. For example, note if major decision variables are GIR, GER,
PTR, student flow rates, class size, etc., and if same requirements apply to all sub-
sectors or part of them. Explain also the level of disaggregation required for human,
material and physical resources.

The core of the MNF model is a set of student-flow calculations (following

assumptions on intake, promotion and repetition, the model calculates the flow of
students through each grade). For future values of intake, promotion and repetition,
there is no linear interpolation between the benchmark and target value; rather, the
users are presented with a time-series graph on which they can draw the assumed
future trend.

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 The unique structural feature of MNF is its fine operational detail in the calculation of
physical resource requirements and costs and the dynamic graphical presentation of
results. In both applications (to Nicaragua and Guatemala), the close collaboration
with the ministries in Nicaragua and Guatemala resulted in customized models that
represent categories that are of greater interest to a particular country and thus tend to
have greater “verisimilitude” and tend to generate more interest. While each
application contains unique aspects and was built with the respective ministries, they
also both share a large set of core equations.
The Nicaragua application of MNF contains 27 submodels that, together, reproduce
the essential relationships of the Nicaraguan Ministry of Education budget by school
program and school type. The different submodels of MNF estimate the financial
needs for: school furniture, infrastructure, expansion of school autonomy, legalization
of school properties, food programs, scholarship programs, school libraries, students
text books, school supplies, teachers salaries, incentive program for school and
teachers, teacher training, recurrent school expenditures, school transfers, pensions,
teachers social benefits, adult literacy program, special education program,
supervising, monitoring and evaluation of school system, administrative cost, social
communication campaigns, and pedagogical innovations. A high-level aggregation of
all the submodels provides the total education budget for the Nicaraguan Ministry of
Education.

9. SOFTWARE REQUIREMENTS: Indicate the software needed to operate the model

(e.g. Excel, Vensim, etc.) and explain if special training in a program language or
software is needed and for what purpose.

For running the program you need iSee player (free software) for adapting the model
you can use iThink or Stella. The company that produces this software has plenty
documentation and offers various training courses. For more information visit:
http://www.iseesystems.com/

10. AVAILABLE TRAINING MATERIALS: Include or reference the location of any

training materials related to the model or models (especially web links)—these may
include a User’s Manual, but may also be training syllabi or on-line training modules.
If training is largely delivered in a face-to-face mode, please indicate how that is
conducted.

A paper describing the MNF can be downloaded at:

http://www.mined.gob.ni/document.php
The paper for the Guatemala model is attached.

11. HISTORY OF USE: Note the countries, organizations, dates, experiences of

development/use of the ESM (if available, attach or provide the web link to a
document elaborating on the question).

It has been used in Nicaragua, Guatemala and Guyana.

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 12. DIAGRAM: Provide a flow/process char/diagram of the key elements of the model,
indicating sub-sectors covered, decision-points (or main decision parameters), and
specific outcomes (enrolment, resources, financing gaps, etc.).

13. CONTACTS: Organization or persons to contact for further information or

clarification (including email address, telephone and fax numbers).

Emilio Porta: eporta@gmail.com

14. FURTHER COMMENTS: Provide any comments, remarks and enquiries, especially
those that are not addressed above.

N.B. Enclose the model itself (if, zipped, its size is less than 2MB) or provide the web link
to the location of the model or set of models. Include any relevant documents or web
links on the model or modelling approach (including experiences of application or
knowledge transfer).

Send to gc.chang@unesco.org