BUILDING ATTACK SCENARIOS 1 FOR COMPLEX SYSTEMS 2 Protection strategy validation3 or offensive reaction4 exercises

G. BOUGET, J-P CHAPUIS, J-G VINCENT

LGST4D 59, Rue des Cailloux 45430 MARDIE g.bouget@lgst4d.com; j-p.chapuis@lgst4d.com; j-g.vincent@lgst4d.com

Summary Scenario generation for exercises or for crisis management is a multi-facetted task. It should allow exploring the intended exercise or end-result objectives sought in the resolution of a crisis. In our modern societies, everything is interdependent and a sole element variation can lead to abrupt or irreversible changes: let us remember Marie-Antoinette and her Let them eat cake," in times of food scarcity, which triggered the French Revolution on the 14th of July 1789 and an irreversible long-term progression of the populations attitude toward the elective systems. It is now essential to build smart scenarios that - throughout their generation - are liable to use simulation. They will integrate events/incidents favoring the study of interactions between systems in degraded situations and creating conditions that are conducive to dialogue with political powers taking into consideration infrastructure and social link restoration issues in managing the crisis from the beginning of an exercise or a real disaster.

Attack: any internal or external, natural, human or material intervention that is likely to affect citizens security and well being in the short, medium or long term. 2 As part of this article the word system refers to a technology, to a set of objects or to any form of social organization (a government and its appendages, local communities, associations) that contribute to providing a specific service (transportation, communication, collection, information processing and dissemination, energy production, healthcare, police, team sports etc.). The word system also means an artificial or natural study object that is immersed in an environment with changing intrinsic properties. 3 A defensive strategy includes all actions aimed at strengthening the resilience of a human or technical system and its infrastructures; it also includes contingency plans for emergency procedures. 4 An offensive reaction aims at reducing or eliminating a threat or an attack.

1.

Preliminary article

rehabilitation in order to restore acceptable living conditions for a community.

The validation of protection and defense plans (in a public or business sphere) depends primarily on the quality of the exercises designed to test them. Scenarios (in a spatial temporal framework whose key points are connected by a script describing attack sequences) are expected to be developed according to a systemic approach. Integrating events and incidents to these scenarios and promoting the study of interacting systems in a degrading situation will create the necessary conditions for dialogue between the political powers by taking into account problems related to the reconstruction of essential services, infrastructures and social networks from the very beginning of an exercise. What happens when a major event undermines plans and operation conduction by overflowing capacities is they public or private, by breaking chains of command and social bonds? The following paper summarizes the main safety organization operating modes; it introduces the complex systems, the machinery and the essential components of our modern societies. After a short note on the exercises, it initiates food for thought on the generation of scenarios dedicated to the organization of exercises involving multiple systems or implying an offensive or preventive reaction facing concerted attacks.

Preparation and reality are often quite different. Training to support a coherent action with growing stress and fatigue for all actors involved in a crisis during these three phases can only be achieved through exercises whose scenarios integrate action frameworks. All states and organizations operate in legal frameworks with various outlines: - de lege: o interdepartmental management provided by law FranceSwitzerland-Australia. o ministerial management by a sole state department or agency specializing in risk management USA - Russia - China - ipso facto: o management without having to cope with a constraining legislation Belgium o the coexistence of a specialized State Agency and Permanent National and International Committees with overlapping responsibilities.

2.1

France, a hierarchical model

2.

Safety - Organization

Laws No. 2003-239 of March 18, 2003 for homeland security and Laws No. 2004-811 of 08/13/04 on the modernization of civil security determine the legal frameworks, organizational principles and policy guidelines contributing to ultimate citizen safety. The corpus of laws and organizational texts proceed from a hierarchical view based on multiplying and piling up coordination and command centers, to which one can add the creation of Crisis Management Centers within each State Department. The Jacobin vision avoids the potential use of existing social networks and does not plan to organize massive public training, but only to keep the population informed and under control. Provided that the integrity of these centralized organizations is not affected and that the relations among them has been previously tested and organized - this model is probably the most effective as regards the perception of a global vision of an ongoing crisis for the management of resources dedicated in priority to saving human lives and to protecting and later to restoring the infrastructures.

So as to be able to deal with the diversity of possible attacks, whether the have natural, technological or human origins, to face their frequency, their magnitude and their geographic distribution, many international (intergovernmental and nongovernmental) and state organizations have implemented strategies to limit damage done both to the population and to the environment. Some organizations have specific mandates giving them global responsibilities in well defined areas, e.g. the World Health Agency, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the International Maritime Organization, the International Civil Aviation Organization. As regards the specificity of the actions and programs implemented by the stakeholders altogether, the following phases and interventions areas are taken into account: risk prevention; the organization of relief operations so as to meet emergencies;

2.2 Belgium, a binding agreements

model

of

non-legally

In addition to a federal government, Belgium has three Communities (French, Flemish and German-speaking) and

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three Regions (Wallonia, Flanders and Brussels) with territorial jurisdictions. For these reasons, the Belgian organization is complex, for there is no hierarchy among these different entities (the Federal State, the Regions and the Communities). The fundamental texts are the Royal Decree of June 23, 1971 organizing civil security missions and the Royal Decree of April 18, 1988 establishing the Government Coordination and Crisis Center. These two decrees are currently subject to background studies for their adaptation to changing international agreements and guidelines. In terms of risk management, the Federal Government and the three regions are concerned. Three large blocks of competence can be distinguished: - environmental protection: regional jurisdiction exercised by the Regional Ministries of Environment; - protection of the population: federal jurisdiction exercised by the Home Federal Public Service, for emergency planning and crisis management; - workers protection: federal jurisdiction exercised by the Federal Public Service for Employment and Labor. Where jurisdictions are shared, different levels sometimes need to conclude cooperation agreements; - the Cooperation Agreement of June 21, 1999 among the Federal Government, the Flemish and Walloon Regions and the Brussels-Capital Region concerning the control of hazards related to major accidents involving dangerous substances. - the Walloon Region RAIN plan, which gathers 5 fields of activity to fight against floods and their effects. Without going into detail, these agreements show that it is possible to combine various authorities concerned having no hierarchy among them in order to achieve common goals; Let us note, however, that in the event a major attack extended beyond these two agreements framework the Government Coordination and Crisis Centre would be activated.

These systems are based on an information exchange network making it possible to receive and trigger alerts and to circulate information. Among these systems one can name: the Management Information Centre or MIC designed to organize and facilitate mutual assistance among participating countries; the European Community Urgent Radiological Information Exchange or ECURIE system in case of radiological emergencies; Biological and Chemical Attacks or BICHAT, for biological and chemical attacks and threats; the Rapid Alert System for Non-Food Consumer Products or RAPEX and the RASFF or Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed, for consumers health; the EWRS or Early Warning Response System, for contagious diseases; the European Network of Plant Health Information or EUROPHYT, a phytosanitary network meant to intercept plants pests and diseases the System to assist with the Health controls of Import of items of veterinary concern at Frontier inspection posts from Third countries or SHIFT, for health controls on imports of veterinary concern; The Animal Disease Notification System or ADNS, for animal health a warning system for critical infrastructures called Critical Infrastructure Warning Information Network or CIWIN the Europol Information System the rapid information system on critical infrastructures; the EU Joint Situation Centre (2005) and the general rapid alert system or ARGUS, which has a central crisis center gathering representatives from all Commission Services concerned by an emergency situation.

2.4

Companies

Some companies and public institutions are required to organize exercises: ports, airports, tunnels and those concerned by the SEVESO II directive. Operators of critical importance (see Code of Defense and decrees made pursuant to Article L.1332-1 et seq) must generate a security system at two levels: a security plan for all their activities related to the relevant sector(s), and specific protection plans for each of its points of vital importance. A EU draft directive on the protection of vital European infrastructures is under discussion. Its objective is to impose a number of safety requirements on the operators of critical infrastructures that are classified as European,

2.3 European protection

cooperation

in

civil

At the European level, civil protection is based on a community mechanism whose foundations were established by the Commission in October 2001. The mechanism includes a set of regulations, instruments, standards (maritime, air and land transportation, infrastructures) and Rapid Action Systems to improve the preparedness of the countries involved and facilitate mutual assistance in case of disaster.

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i.e. whose destruction or damage would have a significant cross-border impact. Furthermore, every country in the world (the United States of America, Switzerland and Russia) have or are about to develop security plans for their key facilities. Each facility or network is in fact composed of element interacting with each other to the point that they form a body which is difficult to comprehend as a whole.

The failing system alters its environment by inducing positive and/or negative effects on other systems, even if its impact on these other systems is for a short period, the results of these effects are usually observed with a timelag, and this time-lag is liable to generate excessive or inappropriate reactions. Finally, in the case of a major event, we may experience the reorganization of the structures and evolution of the systemsix so as to serve their purpose, which is to provide a service. Reorganization will be done mainly according to three types of constraints: financial (excluding requisitioning) for corporations; political arbitration for structures such as local and state authorities; societal factors for social groups. . A clear perception of these constraints is essential in building a scenario because they shape organizations when they are overtaken by events. Here, one can observe complex system dynamicsx developing from resistance to an attack to the loss of functions and to operating in degraded mode, then to reconstruction with a possible reconfiguration and/or the creation of new systems. For computer specialists and software system architects, one could compare these dynamics to that of two synchronized computer programs in normal mode (A requests a service from B, the B program runs, in return A receives the requested service, treats it and sends it back to B) which, triggered by an attack would switch to asynchronous mode (A requests a service and expect a response. After a period of time, even without a response from B, A requests a service again). The most dangerous case in running complex systems in degraded situations is linked to the activation of dormant or embedded systems, because it is similar -for the user to the management of a dynamic situation in which he knows neither the components nor the outcome. 3.2.1 Dormant systems These so-called dormant systems remain inactive or minimally active for very long periods and are solicited or awakened at random for outstanding and even dangerous actions or combinations of actions. Having little information on their operation, users typically experience difficulties in understanding the systems behavior and in redefining their own behavior in response to changes in the system. These will mainly be security systems for industrial plants (power stations and structures) and aircraft.

3.
3.1

Complex systems
Definitions

The word system - defined above - also means an artificial or natural study object that is immersed in an environment with changing intrinsic properties. On appelle systmes complexes ceux dont les interactions des composants sont non linaires (les effets ne sont pas proportionnels la cause). Il est souvent extrmement difficile, voire impossible, de prdire directement le comportement global ; tous les constituants concourent simultanment la dynamique dun comportement devenu holistique : on doit tudier le systme comme un tout et non pas comme un ensemble de parties indpendantes.5 (Quote: Jean Lemoigne / Herv Zwirn). Usually, systemsi are virtually invisible to users. Generally, they only perceive the service provided but not the system providing it. These systems enable them for instance to phone, watch television, access to water, gas, electricity, conduct transactions, book trips etc.

3.2

System Dynamics

Whenever a major event occurs: a local or national strikeii, a major climatic hazardiii, an involuntary failure in a key positioniv or even a deliberate and organized attackv, whether it is terrorist or not... and the existence of a complex systemvi is revealed behind the total or partial paralysis of a function that is sometimes essential to a local or national communityvii, or to the survival of a businessviii or a social group.

Literally What we call complex systems are those whose components have non-linear interactions (the effects are not proportional to the cause). It is often extremely difficult or even impossible to predict a global behavior directly; each component simultaneously contributes to the dynamics of a behavior that has become holistic: one needs to study the system as a whole and not as a set of independent parts.

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Training operators is therefore imperative, mainly on simulators. 3.2.2 Embedded systems Here, we mean all the applications used by an operator that are launched without his needing to interfere or control them and therefore with no access to the causal chain of information governing the system. The danger is the users inability to understand system behavior in crisis situations. 3.2.3 SCADA SCADA stands for supervisory control and data acquisition. SCADA refers to a system that collects data from various sensors - sometimes located thousands of kilometers away - and sends this data to a central computer which manages, controls the data, analyzes it then gives orders to work components (high water level: opens a water gate; local electrical overload: commutates a network; breakdown on a railway: reconfigures the switches; etc.). These systems are mainly data acquisition and control systems and distribution control systems. They interfere with all areas of our daily lives. 3.2.4 Cooperative systems They are those whose data can be exchanged automatically. There are two operating methods: one whose data is freely accessible and processed by the receiving system and one whose data is formatted it is made available to another previously approved system. A recent and unfortunate example illustrates the effects of non-cooperating systems: emergency and health services. The first did not know in real time the number of beds available and their locations, the second did not know the number and positioning of the ambulances that requested or were going to request beds; nobody coordinated, nor sorted out priorities. 3.2.5 Social interaction systems

to that suggested by Luhmann, Niklas (1984) in his book Soziale Systeme: Grundriss einer allgemeinen Theorie.

The interaction system only allows one social group to speak at a time. Thus, the change of theme can only be done in a chronological relationship, at the cost of additional time. This linear sequence compels this type of system only to process the most complex communications. Organized systems (societal organizations) are formed around membership regulations to these systems under conditions determined by their rules. It excludes those who do not belong to it; a dialogue is only possible through an interaction system. A society is a higher-order system that allows communication between absent entities as well as face-to-face communication. its own boundaries are bordered by possible means of communication; they are above all the boundaries of accessibility to others and mutual understanding. (unofficial translation).

Societal interaction systems are complex and affect the very heart of modern societies - and megacities in particular. Understanding the interactions, organizations and societies that populate them should allow simulating of social system and creating crisis scenarios integrating the two following questions: What is the best way to maintain or even enforce the measures that are necessary to the proper functioning of critical services in case of crisis? Are there any thresholds above which the population will no longer tolerate gaps in these critical services? If yes, which ones will threaten the stability of our society and the power of the State?

4.

Simulation

The evolution of an object can be either deterministic or stochastic. The first case can be transposed by a computer program as the setting of initial conditions leads to a computable evolution (chemical or radiological spreading). The second one is when no result can be predicted, either because a slight variation in the initial conditions generates a highly variable result, or because the variables cannot be solved using a predictive algorithm (chaos theories, cellular automaton and unbounded intelligent agents). Examples illustrating this can be studied by an inquiring reader: - studies on population dynamicsxi, - the game of life and its derivatives, a cellular automaton imagined by John Horton Conway in

CREA Ecole Polytechnique In our scenario studies, we adopted a system classification (interaction, organization and society) close Page 5 / 10

1970, and which is probably today the most famous of all cellular automatons; the ant model; crowd movements for intelligent agents.

However, it can be noted that graphical representations often allow detecting stable states or repetitive figures, making it possible to infer valid conclusions on a given period. The following pictures illustrate the ant model; whatever the position of the food, a corridor will always be formed. An extrapolation can be done on how to supply a population among which each seeker would be equipped with the technical equivalent of pheromones.

the problems the population is confronted with and how they face them, to try and help them, then to adjust the critical points in accordance with the analysis of the feedback. One of the best exercise patterns (which can be easily adapted to any type of situation) is the one devised by the IAEAxiii; methods that integrate the local social forces are also well described by the FEMAxiv; however it is only the documents drafted by the WHOxv that refer to the coordination between organized structures and not specifically trained actors. Our analysis has led us to identify several weak points in the exercises we have been able to observe (except for military exercises). - Lack of simulation of individuals or social groups behavior and its impact on how emergency services operate; - Drawing up of the exercise scenarios by the managers then responsible for managing them, and later to analyze them; - No real internal/external analysis of the exercise scenarios; (Voluntary?) omission of a political control by local councilors (mayors, city and regional elected officials) on the decisions taken during the management of a crisis within their field of responsibility. The method and tools used for the preparation, the management and processing of the feedback should make up a normalized, even certified, whole, that is a quality and risk evaluation approach allowing to: - Create, organize, follow and control an exercise or a military, civil or mixed crisis; - Check the state of advancement of the exercise objectives or how a past crisis has been managed; - Gather and present all the data needed to draw up learned lessons. - Group all the data from previous exercises or crisis for future reuse.

With the kind authorization of Eurobios

5.

Exercises

The feedbacks on crisis and the study of different exercises and of real life crisis show over and over again the limits of the current and future plans concerning the systems degraded mode working phase. This is the most critical issue. To this day, only the U.S.A., Switzerland and Australia seem to have integrated within their legislation and guide-lines the local systems and human factors when managing a crisis. Europe is still studying how to protect critical infrastructuresxii by expanding them to the level of more comprehensive functional networks. The Commission has planned the financing of high-scale plans meant to improve the resilience of large infrastructures and vital systems. Prevention, protection, intervention and security plans draw up and control the various actions to be taken. There is a duty for the authority that has approved a plan to perform the exercises needed so as to validate that plan and to regularly make sure it is relevant in an environment that is liable to change. We are particularly thinking of the mayors and company managers who are in the front line both on the regulatory and judiciary levels, as they will be the ones responsible in the case of lack of preparation. They are also normally responsible in front of the citizens or of their employees. The exercises on paper, functional or full-scale should allow the staff to train at applying the reaction cards, and the persons in charge to improve the interdepartment coordination in a crisis situation, to understand

6.

Building a Scenario

The true impact on our modern societies of any attack is measured through its political consequences, the scope of human losses and the damages on critical infrastructuresxvi it entails. Accidents (climatology and human errors) can be anticipated and resistance to this type of events can be planned so as to reach a high level of resilience. Attacks from human origin will aim at heightening tensions between human actors, after having studied social systems; they will use any population manipulation

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technique that can paralyze the operation of the security and population assistance services. Rumor will point at malfunctions to denigrate managers of emergency systems and all the people with power. They will add specific damages to communication nodes and common functions. On the other hand, pressure will bring public powers to be keener on making systems more cooperativexvii once exercises or real cases will have pointed at some malfunctions. When a system is no longer functional, citizens and companies try to find a substitute, first at a low price and later at all costs and means when their survival is at stake. Any scenario will have to integrate the previous remarks as well as the lessons learned from previous scenarios to make up a coherent and credible whole.

A third phase, the feedback and strengthening of experience assets, is not included within the exercise but is indispensable. Resources are constituted by the physical systems components, the organizations and the human networks that can fulfill a function or a service. Exercise Objectives are all the resources to be trained, tested and evaluated. They are grouped by hierarchical subordination.
Objective; subobjective, event,

Objectives and subobjectives

6.1

Definitions

A scenario is the description of a sequence of facts within a specific spatial temporal framework. All of it forms a whole once a script (synopsis) links all the elements together, after the environment has been described. The scenario leads to a looked for final state. Events represent the key points of a scenario; they allow initiating an evaluation of the protection and intervention plans. The MEL (Main Events List) is the list of the events linked to a specific scenario.

Non-affected events and incidents, taken in the database of previous exercises. They can be linked to objectives by the Drag and Drop function of the software, THOR Version 3 developed by LGST4D

6.2
Incidents allow a detailed description of the attack; they are grouped by events and by attacked system T. The MIL (Main Incidents List) is a list of incidents to support events. Each incident calls for one or more reaction(s) from the players. Reactions are the expected responses or initiatives of the players when an incident is injected. When all the incidents have been injected, it is essential to control all the reactions; each reaction should correspond to one of the objectives of the training. Phases are time intervals predetermined by the exercise manager; they correspond to groups of events. Two phases must always be present: The warming up phase which aims at emerging players in the exercise environment; it may allows to activate the precaution plans. The reinforcement and restoration phase allows estimating the pertinence of the implementation of the resources dedicated to the restoration of services and repairing of the material and psychosocial damages. 6.2.1

Scenarios
Generation

Generating scenarios should be done through a systemic approachxviii based on interactions and relations between the different systems concerned by an attack. Taking into account all the parameters to be integrated, the creation of scenarios must rely on a multidisciplinary expertise and as comprehensive a documentation as possible; they must all be designed in a contributive (in the meaning used for information portals) work environment. Therefore, almost all scenario designers use proprietary or commercial software, as well as open source tools. One of the most important elements is adopting a flexible Relational Data Base Management System (RDBMS), with communication connectors to other RDBMS and/or resources available on the Internet. Adopting XML offers many advantages regarding certain limitations. First of all, it a text format understood by all computer programs. It can be easily handled to allow data imports/exports. Moreover, its syntax and

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content may be analyzed in real time, thus reducing its vulnerability to hostile tools. 6.2.2 Stages in building a scenario

display a state or how it evolves. The diagram hereunder, built using the AGNA free software, shows that appealing to NATO is one of the best options. Organization of a massive air lift towards Bulgaria, Ukraine and Romania following a major disaster Scenario: meteorite in western Black Sea.

Exhaustive description of all the objectives The aim is to describe as precisely as possible the means and organizations taking part in the exercise whether they have or not an active role with the help of the cell in charge of the exercise. Creating a list of possible events This non-chronological list of approximately 6-7 items may be made of events stored in a database during previous exercises or just created when needed. Please note that when some events are imported from a historical database, an associated list of incidents should automatically be provided. Anyway, selected events should involve administrative powers, public services and the judiciary power (damages to persons and goods) as well as the local, national and cross-border authorities. The aim here is to include potential sources of confrontation between systems different in nature and values. Data collection on the exercise players and environment On the basis of a list of events, part of the exercise framework will be frozen; its environment must be defined; the data collection has to be very thorough; it will necessarily include: A cartography organized in vectorial layers which data will be translated in an Open Geographic Consortium format and which sources will come from the main national and international databases. A bibliography of the regulations, agreements and treaties related to the exercise or the crisis; A whos who grouped by organization and social network (these two points including a graphical representation) to allow the organization of an LDAP directory. It is necessary to set up a perfectly coherent and exhaustive data set. One of the main problems encountered in a crisis by deciders is the ones linked to the relevant or not data flux. Managers, as well as their collaborators, must therefore be trained to identify and sort relevant elements coming from various sources, structured or not; thus, using documents analyses and data search and display toolsxix will become a current custom in crisis management centers. The aim is to encourage deciders, or those who prepare the information they need, to use simple graphical tools to

LGST4D exploration study. Political relations in an emergency situation: the distance between flags reflects the strength of links (Chi-2 Law on ten parameters) between nations and organizations; the thickness of the lines reflects how many nationals are integrated in these organizations. Description of all the systems Systems have to be split into sub-systems, functions and links with other systems. ne approach could be to use Unified Modeling Language UML 2.0 tools and methods. A special attention should be paid to the description of local authorities, associations and international organizations that might be involved. Sequence of events It implies ordering events depending on interactions between systems and exercise objectives: progressive increase in means or on the contrary an objective reaction in the face of a limited or major scale disaster. Initial simulations They aim at checking adequacy between the databases and a sequence of events; when necessary to the exercise or a reaction to an attack, a decision tree is built taking into account several visible reactions of the systems. Linking events through a script (synopsis) The script describes the different chains of events; it adds details, relevant or not, as is done for a film scenario, with possibly flashbacks. The script is particularly important during a phase of stimulation phase, which can last for several months.

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Cutting the scenario into phases The script, the events, the environment and the phases build up the scenario. Creating a phase implies grouping different events within a same time space and no links with the exercise objectives, but with its own development conditions: work time, increase in means, or a tempo specific to the concerned organization. Creation of sets of incidents / expected reactions Each of the exercise training objectives or offensive reaction corresponds to a reaction expected after the incidents have been injected. Generally speaking, the designer will try to saturate the means of reaction and the communications between them through quantitative jumps. The organization of scenarios around databases shows here its usefulness. All the incidents and actions of the exercises or previous crisis that have been stored can be quickly added and modified to be adjusted in accordance with the reactions on the spot. Checking coherence/reactions towards objectives The scenario should include an evaluation grid of the reactions and be able to integrate unplanned actions in its structure (at the players initiative). The latter will be used to inject new incidents as unexpected initiatives may be at the origin of malfunction. Linking incidents to events Incidents exist as independent objects; for example, the incident type fire in a technical room containing dangerous products may be applied to several events or systems. You may want to test how well fire services work in case of multiple fires, but the incident type remains the same. In a pandemic scenario, there may be several events or infectious episodes in different countries; the incidents (discovery of sick persons in a school)conduct the actions to be undertaken. Checking all the chronologies This is a mandatory coherence test. Setting up of post-crisis or reconstruction elements It is not always easy to determine the starting point of the rehabilitation phase: would it be when the actions stop being a mere palliative and start concerning the longer term? Experience shows that there is no real break line between the rehabilitation period and the previous phases; such is also the case with the restoration period one of the objectives of which is to be prepared for new catastrophes: prevention and preparation are among its most important aspects.

These elements must be spread all along the scenario through incidents covering the whole societal spectrum: legal actions; all kinds of discriminations; violence to persons and goods; formal or work-to-rule strikes; intervention of insurance companies; reconstruction programs.

7.

A word on this article

This article does not aim at criticizing the different political and regulatory approaches of protection and their associated plans; unfortunately, we have noted that a great number of deciders did not know what performing an exercise associated with a scenario and built in accordance with the concepts explained in this article could bring to the evaluation of their plans. This article would simply like to help change the patterns of exercises so as to integrate the systems approach and the potential bonus or dangers represented by formal or informal social networks, as indeed those subjects are today very rarely brought up in exercise scenarios, from the village and company level up to the European level. We are of the opinion that any exercise scenario (even at the level of a village, a small infrastructure or an elementary system) should integrate a full scenario apt to start crisis cells thinking, acting and drawing lessons as proposed in this article.

Endnotes
Mr. Francis Le Gallou: "A system is a set, forming a cohesive and independent unit of real or conceptual objects (hardware, individuals, actions,) organized according to a goal (or to a set of goals, objectives, finalities, projects, ...) through a set of relationships (mutual interactions, dynamic interactions ...), while immersed in a particular environment.
ii iii i

Garbage strike in Naples in 2008

Storms in December 1999 and in January 2009 in France; Hurricane Katrina in the U.S.

Electric power failure in Italy power on September 28, 2003.

v

iv

Successful attack by an individual of the water distribution and sewage system in Queensland (Australia) in 2000.

What we call complex systems are those whose components have non-linear interactions (the effects are not proportional to the cause). It is often extremely difficult or even impossible to predict a global behavior directly; each component simultaneously contributes to the dynamics of a behavior that has become holistic: one needs to study the system as a whole and not as a set of independent parts.

vi

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An attack against Estonia in 2007, paralyzing all the government and exchange bank websites in particular.
viii

vii

Theft of 94 million credit card numbers and customer data held by JTX in the U.S. in 2007

For instance, when the private bus lines were remodeled during the RATP and SNCF (French subway and railway networks) strikes or the way truck drivers wage claims changed during that period. Dynamique des systmes complexes (Complex System Dynamics) Ecole Centrale de Paris.
xi http://www.sciences.ch/htmlfr/mathssociales/mathssdynapop 01.php#modeleproiespredateurs xii http://www.counteract.eu/default.aspx xiii x

ix

Preparation, Conduct and Evaluation of Exercises to Test Preparedness for a Nuclear or Radiological Emergency Training Materials Emergency Preparedness and Response 2006

xiv

http://training.fema.gov/emiweb/downloads/IS139ExPlan.doc
xv

ISBN 978-2-7117-9140-8 [7] Michel Bonami, Bernard de Hennin, Jean-Michel Boqu, Jean-Jacques Legrand. Management des systmes complexes - Pense systmique et intervention dans les organisations De Boeck Universit - 1993 ISBN-13: 9782804117313 [8] Niklas Luhmann. Soziale Systeme: Grundri einer allgemeinen Theorie. Suhrkamp; Auflage: Neuauflage. (5. August 2008) ISBN-13: 978-3518282663 [9] Olivier Godard, Claude Henry, Patrick Lagadec, Erwann Michel-Kerjean. Trait des nouveaux risques - Prcaution, crise, assurance. Gallimard - 2002 ISBN-13: 978-2070421039 [10] David Dufresne. Maintien de l'ordre: l'Enqute. Hachette Littrature.2007 [11] NATO. Joint Analysis Hand Book. 3rd Version 2007 [12] Le Monde. Scnarios catastrophe pour une grippe fatale 7 mai 2009 [13] Paul K. Davis. Analytic Architecture for CapabilitiesBased Planning, Mission-System Analysis and Transformation. Rand 2002 [14] Bishop, P. Hines. The Current State of Scenario Development Foresight Vol 9. A & Collins, T. (2007)

Exercise design guide meant to validate the preparation plans for a flu pandemic, WHO Western Pacific bureau

Meaning COMMUNICATION BY THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION on a European program of protection of critical infrastructure - COM(2006) final 786 Cooperative complex systems (COSY) Laboratory for systems design and integration - Pierre Mendes University France
xviii xvii

xvi

Holism taking into account the global nature of the question; it can be associated to the scholastic approach that integrates uncertainties and probabilities. It is to be opposed to the determinist approach.

IN-SPIRE developed by the National Visualization and Analytics Center of the Pacific Northwest National laboratories. i2 Analysts Notebook (de iBridge) COPLINK for analyzing criminal networks

xix

References - Bibliography
[1] Georges-Yves Kervern, Patrick Rubise. Introduction aux cindyniques. Economica - 1991 ISBN-13: 978-2717820614 [2] Georges-Yves Kervern. Elments fondamentaux des cindyniques. Economica - 1995 ISBN-13: 978-2717827569 [3] Georges-Yves Kervern, Philippe Boulenger. Cindyniques Concepts et mode demploi.Economica - 2007 ISBN-13:978-2717852875 [4] Edgar Morin. Introduction la pense complexe Prcaution, crise, assurance. Seuil - Nle edition 2005 ISBN-13: 978-2020668378 [5] James Gleick. La thorie du chaos. Flammarion - 2008 ISBN-13: 978-2081218048 [6] Chrispohe Letellier. Le Chaos dans la nature. Vuibert 2006

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