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Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code IT 219,167 1.0 1247/903 201,905 1 17,025 5,118 TCS.BO TCS@IN
`1,120 `1,220
12 months
For 2QFY2012, TCS reported modest set of numbers, lower than streets expectations on the revenue front; however, the company outperformed on the operating front. The major highlight of the result was the 6.25% qoq volume growth and addition of two new clients in the US$100mn plus revenue bracket. Management has highlighted robust growth outlook for FY2012, with the deal pipeline being strong. TCS continues to remain our preferred pick along with HCL Tech in the IT pack. We recommend Accumulate on the stock. Quarterly highlights: For 2QFY2012, TCS posted revenue of US$2,525mn, up 4.7% qoq, majorly led by volume growth. In INR terms, revenue stood at `11,633cr, up 7.7% qoq. EBITDA and EBIT margin increased by 100bp and 94bp qoq to 29.1% and 27.1%, respectively, aided by INR depreciation against USD, which absorbed the negative impact due to promotions given during the quarter. PAT came in at `2,439cr, up merely 2.5% qoq, as the company incurred forex loss of `91cr during 2QFY2012, resulting in lower other income. Outlook and valuation: Management maintained its hiring guidance at 60,000 gross employee additions in FY2012, with lateral fresher ratio of 38:62. The company bagged 10 large deals in 2QFY2012. In addition, the company is currently chasing 10 large deals. Even with aggressive hiring plans, management targets to maintain utilization levels excluding trainees at 82-84% in FY2012. Thus, over FY2011-13E, we expect TCSs revenue to post a 21% CAGR (USD terms), surpassing even the US$10bn revenue mark in FY2012 itself, after achieving the US$8bn milestone in FY2011. On account of tailwinds such as 1) strong growth even on the back of 29% growth in FY2011, 2) headroom to scale up utilization levels and 3) SGA expense optimization as a strong lever, we expect TCS to absorb the impact of wage hikes gradually. We expect the EBIT margins downside to be limited to 135bp yoy and settle at 26.7% by FY2013. We value TCS at 20x (10% premium to Infosys) FY2013E EPS of `61.0 with a target price of `1,220 and recommend Accumulate on the stock. Key financials (Consolidated, IFRS)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EBITDA margin (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY2009* 27,813 21.9 5,172 3.0 25.8 26.4 42.4 14.0 33.0 28.9 7.8 30.1 FY2010* 30,028 8.0 6,873 32.9 28.9 35.1 31.9 10.5 32.8 28.8 7.0 24.3 FY2011 37,324 24.3 8,715 26.8 30.0 44.5 25.1 8.6 34.3 32.0 5.7 18.9 FY2012E 47,750 27.9 10,506 20.5 29.5 53.7 20.9 7.0 33.5 32.4 4.4 14.9 FY2013E 55,099 15.4 11,937 13.6 28.7 61.0 18.4 5.7 30.9 29.8 3.8 13.2
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 74.1 8.1 12.6 5.2
3m (8.3) (2.5)
Srishti Anand
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6820 srishti.anand@angelbroking.com
Ankita Somani
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6819 ankita.somani@angelbroking.com
2QFY12 11,633 6,214 5,419 2,037 3,383 229 3,154 100 3,254 791 2,462 24 2,439 12.5 46.6 29.1 27.1 20.8
1QFY12 10,797 5,879 4,918 1,887 3,031 205 2,826 289 3,115 706 2,408 28 2,380 12.2 45.5 28.1 26.2 21.5
% chg (qoq) 7.7 5.7 10.2 7.9 11.6 11.6 11.6 4.5 12.0 2.2 (15.7) 2.5 2.5 103bp 100bp 94bp (69)bp
2QFY11 9,286 4,996 4,291 1,514 2,777 166 2,611 44 2,656 500 2,156 30 2,126 10.9 46.2 29.9 28.1 22.8
% chg (yoy) 25.3 24.4 26.3 34.6 21.8 37.7 20.8 22.5 58.2 14.2 (19.7) 14.7 14.7 38bp (83)bp (101)bp (200)bp
1HFY12 22,430 12,093 10,337 3,923 6,414 434 5,980 388 6,368 1,498 4,871 52 4,819 24.6 46.1 28.6 26.7 21.1
1HFY11 17,503 9,409 8,094 2,902 5,192 324 4,869 126 4,995 948 4,047 59 3,989 20.4 46.2 29.7 27.8 22.6
% chg (yoy) 28.2 28.5 27.7 35.2 23.5 34.0 22.8 27.5 58.0 20.3 (11.8) 20.8 20.8 (16)bp (107)bp (115)bp (151)bp
Broad-based growth
For 2QFY2012, TCS reported modest performance with USD revenue at US$2,525mn, up 4.7% qoq, on the back of volume growth of 6.25% qoq. USD revenue was negatively impacted due to cross-currency movement and a 50bp and 95bp qoq decline in price realization, respectively. The price decline was due to shift in the business mix to services such as enterprise solutions and assurance services; however, going ahead the company expects pricing to remain stable. In constant currency (CC) terms, revenue came in at US$2,539mn, up 5.1% qoq. The companys growth was led by growth in its international business, volumes of which grew by 7.3% qoq. In INR terms, revenue came in at `11,633cr, up 7.7% qoq registering higher growth as against USD revenue due to qoq INR depreciation against USD in 2QFY2012. The company has closed 10 large deals in 2QFY2012, of which five were from the US, four from Europe and the UK and the rest from emerging economies. These 10 deals span across industry segments two in BFSI, two in telecom, one each in retail, hi-tech, life sciences, CPG and travel and hospitality. Also, management has indicated that currently it is chasing 10 large deals.
11.7
(%)
7.4 4.7
6.3
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
More offshoring of volume (6.25% qoq growth in 1QFY2011) and steep INR depreciation against USD led to considerable INR revenue growth of 7.7% in 1QFY2012, offsetting the negative effects of a 1.0% qoq due to decline in price realization and a 0.1% dip due to offshore effort mix shift.
(%)
2.5
(0.1) (1.0) Pricing Effort mix shift offshore Total revenue growth
TCSs performance during the quarter was backed by strong demand across all industry segments (excluding telecom). BFSI, TCSs anchor industry segment, continued to generate incremental revenue and reported 5.2% qoq growth. The companys growth was led by the energy and utilities and retail and distribution industry segments, which grew by 18.5% and 9.2% qoq, respectively. Other segments such as travel and hospitality, manufacturing and lifesciences and healthcare also posted strong revenue growth of 7.5%, 7.4% and 6.7% qoq, respectively. Revenue from telecom remained sluggish during the quarter, but management has indicated that it is witnessing transformation deals in the telecom industry, majorly in emerging economies, and has signed two large deals (US$100mn plus) in this quarter in the telecom industry segment.
% chg (qoq) 5.2 7.4 (4.3) 6.7 9.2 7.5 18.5 (0.1) 6.5
% chg (yoy) 24.6 32.8 5.3 30.9 39.9 49.6 26.0 32.3 61.6
Service line wise, global consulting, asset leveraged solutions, engineering and industrial services and assurance services emerged as the primary growth drivers for the company by posting whopping 23.7%, 16.3%, 9.2% and 9.0% qoq growth, respectively. Enterprise solutions, IMS, application development and maintenance (ADM) and business intelligence grew by 7.6%, 5.8%, 1.3% and 0.4%, respectively. All this signifies that growth was across all service lines; and management has indicated that the demand landscape across all service lines is robust with healthy deal pipelines.
% chg (qoq) 1.3 0.4 7.6 9.0 9.2 5.8 23.7 16.3 4.7
% chg (yoy) 20.3 5.7 35.8 45.1 23.4 28.7 56.0 48.2 26.0
Geography wise, growth was across all geographies except India. Revenue from developed economies such as US, UK and Continental Europe grew by 5.7%, 6.1% and 6.8% qoq, respectively. Emerging economies Asia Pacific and Middle East and Africa (MEA) posted 7.6% and 4.7% qoq growth in revenue, respectively. Revenue from India declined by 6.6% qoq, which was a major growth dampener for the company.
(%)
76.4
2QFY12
For 2QFY2012, utilization level including and excluding trainees remained almost flat qoq at 76.4% and 83.1% from 76.2% and 83.2%, respectively, in 1QFY2012.
Margins decline
TCSs EBITDA and EBIT margin increased by 100bp and 94bp qoq to 29.1% and 27.1%, respectively, aided by INR depreciation against USD, which offsetted the negative impact due to promotions given during the quarter. Going forward, the company expects its margins to increase further.
(%)
28 27 26 25 24 2QFY11
4QFY11
2QFY12
EBIT margin witnessed a 166bp positive impact due to INR depreciation along with 10bp and 4bp positive impact on account of SG&A efficiencies and offshore effort shift, respectively. These effects were slightly overshadowed by the negative impact of 73bp because of a decline in price realizations. All in all, the companys EBIT margin improved by 94bp qoq during the quarter.
(bp)
10
(73) Offshore effort shift Others Pricing and productivity Total impact
228 61 65 41 17 8 936 30
and exceptional operational exuberance) FY2013E EPS of `61.0 with a target price of `1,220 and recommend Accumulate on the stock.
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Price
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Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation ratio(x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BVPS Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total assets Per share data (`) EPS Cash EPS Dividend Book value Dupont analysis Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT) Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT) EBIT margin (EBIT/Sales) Asset turnover ratio (Sales/Assets) Leverage ratio (Assets/Equity) Operating ROE Return ratios (%) RoCE (pre-tax) Angel RoIC RoE Turnover ratios(x) Asset turnover (fixed assets) Receivables days 7.4 81 7.2 71 7.2 80 7.3 79 7.1 80 28.9 33.5 33.0 28.8 41.5 32.8 32.0 41.1 34.3 32.4 41.9 33.5 29.8 38.9 30.9 0.9 0.9 0.2 1.2 1.5 33.4 0.9 1.0 0.3 1.1 1.3 33.3 0.8 1.1 0.3 1.1 1.3 34.8 0.8 1.1 0.3 1.2 1.3 33.9 0.8 1.1 0.3 1.1 1.3 31.2 26.4 29.4 8.2 80.0 35.1 38.8 11.0 107.0 44.5 48.2 23.4 129.8 53.7 58.4 23.4 160.1 61.0 66.5 23.4 197.7 42.4 38.1 14.0 0.7 7.8 30.1 9.5 31.9 28.9 10.5 1.0 7.0 24.3 7.6 25.1 23.2 8.6 2.1 5.7 18.9 6.5 20.9 19.2 7.0 2.1 4.4 14.9 5.2 18.4 16.8 5.7 2.1 3.8 13.2 4.2 FY2009*^ FY2010* FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
13
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
TCS No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
14