DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

3 October, 2011
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

M
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF
Ron William, CMT, MSTA

S-TERM
MULTI-DAY

L-TERM
MULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/ POSITION SHORT 3 Buy limit 3 LONG 3 LONG 2 LONG 3 SHORT 3

ENTRY LEVEL 1.3580 1.5420 77.20 0.8905 1.0390 0.9705

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS

STOP

1.3000/1.2860/1.2590 (Entered 22/09/2011) 1.5520/1.5869/1.6200 80.20/81.50/83.30 (Entered 25/08/2011) 0.9340/0.9776 (Entered 21/09/2011) 1.0670/1.0880/1.1130 (Entered 30/09/2011) 0.9390/0.9220/0.8770 (Entered 03/10/2011) Possibly looking to sell higher.

1.3870 1.5320 75.90 0.8885 1.0210 0.9840

USD/CAD AUD/USD GBP/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/GBP

Buy limit 3 Sell limit 3

102.20 0.8645

103.50/105.00/106.80 0.8525/0.8385/0.8200 Await fresh signal.

101.80 0.8705

Bijoy Kar, CFA

EUR/CHF GOLD SILVER

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

SHORT 1 Sell stop 3

1805 29.1000

1300 (Entered 12/09/2011) 26.0700/21.5200/19.5000

1704 32.5200

DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES

Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report

Notes:Entriesarein3unitsandobjectivesareat3 separate levelswhere1unitwillbeexited.Whenthefirstobjective(PT1)hasbeenhitthestopwillbemovedtotheentry pointforanearriskfreetrade.Whenthesecondobjective(PT2)hasbeenhitthestopwillbemovedtoPT1lockinginmoreprofit.Allordersarevaliduntilthenextreportis published,oratradingstrategyalertissentbetweenreports. CH-2008 Neuchtel info@migbank.com Switzerland www.migbank.com

MIG BANK / Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01

EUR/USD EUR/USD
EUR/USD (Daily) BERMUDA TRIANGLE
FAILED
BREAKOUTS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

3 October, 2011

Fresh lows unlock decline into 1.3000.

EUR/USDs fresh new lows, has unlocked the impulsive (wave 3) decline into 1.3000 and 1.2860.

BIG LEVEL (1.4000)

Until then, key resistance is likely to cap any potential oversold bounces around 1.3797 (22nd Sept high), then 1.3937 (15th Sept high), which is near the previous breakout zone at 1.4000 (near 200-day MA & old trend-line).

200-DMA (1.4054) TREND 2 YEARS (1.3960)

BREAKOUT TRIGGERS IMPULSIVE (WAVE 3) DECLINE INTO 1.3000 & 1.2870

Inversely, the US dollar index is continuing to rise (as most other popular risk markets fall). Dollar bulls are expected to extend their recovery into 80.00, following the previous breakout of a major trading range in the next few sessions.

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

US DOLLAR INDEX (Daily 2 years) 200-DMA (76.00) US$ INDEX (4 YEARS)

Speculative (net long) liquidity flows have also spiked above our trigger level of 15000 contracts (3 standard deviations from the yearly average),

BREAKOUT TARGETS 80.00 +27% +19%

and will help sustain the bull-run from historic oversold conditions (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).

SPECIALREPORT:EUR/USDAFallFromGrace?DeclineTargets1.3770/1.3410.
Please select link: REPORT
DEMARK BUY SIGNAL

VIDEO

DEMARK BUY SIGNALS

13

KEY SUPPORT (73.50-73.00)

TRIGGER (15000) COT LIQUIDITY

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Short 3 at 1.3580, Objs: 1.3000/1.2860/1.2590, Stop: 1.3870.

US Dollar Index daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 2

GBP/USD

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

3 October, 2011

Further recovery leg higher anticipated while above 1.5328.

GBP/USD has potentially completed an initial leg higher after peaking at 1.5716, following last weeks false break lower to 1.5328. However, a fresh swing higher is anticipated, ahead of the possible creation of a lower high. Given the swift sell off that has taken place over recent sessions there remains scope for a substantial recovery higher, back towards the 200 day moving average near 1.6128. Longer-term, a return to weakness remains favoured. However, it is noted that Sterling has already experienced a large devaluation against the US Dollar in 2008. Thus, further strengthening in the US Dollar is not Instead GBP/USD is

expected to lead to full participation of Sterling. GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

favoured to remain stronger then most, as displayed in crosses like GBP/AUD, which appears to be exhibiting signs of a longer-term reversal. (See our GBP/AUD special focus here).

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Buy limit 3 at 1.5420, Objs: 1.5520/1.5869/1.6200, Stop: 1.5320

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 3

USD/JPY
USD/JPY (Daily 1 YEAR)

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

3 October, 2011
POST INTERVENTION RETRACEMENT (PIR I)

Continues to base amidst the all-time low.

USD/JPY is maintaining a confluence of DeMark exhaustion bullish

QUAKE SHOCK! 83.30

POST G7 MOVE HIGH

signals, after the new post WWII record low which was carved out at 75.95. The reversal signals are also taking place following the second post intervention retracement in 2011, which is holding around a multi-day base pattern support, near 76.30-25.

82.00

The medium/long-term view remains bullish, watching for a sustained move above our initial upside trigger level at 77.68. This would offer a

POST BOJ MOVE HIGH

resumption of the preferred new structural bull-cycle into the all-important psychological level at 80.00, near 80.24 (post BOJ intervention II high).
80.24

Keep in mind that such a scenario would help reactivate the longer-term
PIR II
USD/JPY Weekly (2007 2011)

ENDING DIAGONAL PATTERN BREAKOUT TARGET (88-85)

technical bias, including prior monthly DeMark exhaustion signals, within the ending diagonal pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle.

DEMARK BUY SIGNAL AFTER NEW POST WWII LOW (75.95)

Only a sustained weekly close below here and 76.25 will lead to a reassessment of the view and extend temporary weakness into 74.55.

WAVE 5

MONTHLY DEMARK BUY SIGNAL

USD/JPY daily and weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Long 3 at 77.20, Obj: 80.20/81.50/83.30, Stop: 75.90

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 426 4

USD/CHF
Next targets 0.9183.

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

3 October, 2011

USD/CHF continues to edge higher towards an initial re-test of 0.9183, after managing to maintain a hold over the 50 week moving average, currently at 0.8979. Should a break over 0.9183 be realised, then a return towards 0.9340 would then be expected, followed by 0.9784 over time. A failure to hold over 0.8886 will warn of a larger corrective phase developing, particularly if a push over 0.9183 cannot be realised. Back under 0.7712 is required to change the long-term bullish bias.

USD/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Long 2 at 0.8905, Objs: 0.9340/0.9776, Stop: 0.8885.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 5

USD/CAD
USD/CAD (Daily)
August High (1.0673)

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

3 October, 2011
USD/CAD (Weekly)

Breakout targets resistance at 1.0673.

USD/CAD has powered above resistance at 1.0400. The move has helped activate our model portfolio long position which favours higher gains into BULLISH RECOVERY TARGETS 1.0680 1.0670 and 1.0880.

200-DMA (0.9784)

Meanwhile, new support (old resistance) is provided at 1.0400. Only a sustained close beneath here will offer temporary setbacks into 1.0200 and perhaps even 1.0000 (psychological level and prior trading range).

MAJOR LOW (0.9446)

TD EXHAUSTION BUY SIGNAL

Elsewhere, EUR/CAD is extending above its 200-day MA, within a large multi-month trading range. Key resistance continues to hold at 1.4379 (June swing high) which has for some time marked a strong distribution

USD/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

MAJOR RESISTANCE CHF/CAD (Daily)

pattern.
REVERSAL PATTERN

CHF/CAD is unwinding higher from initial support nearby the 200-day MA at 1.0932, following the dramatic price slide lower (triggered by the SNB intervention). The cross-rate has now retraced more than half of its 2011 gains.
50% (1.3570) 61.8% (1.3379)

200-DMA (1.3676)

200-DMA (1.0932)

EUR/CAD (Daily)

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
LONG 3: 1.0390, Obj: 1.0670, 1.0880, 1.1130 Stop: 1.0210

EURCAD and CHFCAD daily charts, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 6

AUD/USD
AUD/USD (1 YEAR)
TD EXHAUSTION SELL SIGNALS
TD RISK (1.0935) TD RISK (1.1102)

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

3 October, 2011

Bearish slide favours support at 0.9537.

AUD/USDs fresh new lows has activated our model portfolio short position and is is now extending the slide into 0.9537 (Dec 01st 2010 low). A break beneath here offers further downside scope into 0.9220.

Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains stable against the New Zealand
200-DMA (1.0391)

dollar. The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2320 and 1.2100.

The Aussie dollar also continues to weaken against the Japanese yen, resuming the pattern breakout and now targets 72.58 (50% Fib-bull market AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/NZD (Daily) 200-DMA CAPS BEAR MKT AUD/JPY (Daily)
DEMARK SELL SIGNAL

from 2008). The move reinforces current risk aversion in the global financial
13

community.

38.2% (76.70) 50% (72.58) 61.8% (68.47)

200DMA (83.56)

BREAKDOWN ADDS TO RISK AVERSION

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY SHORT 3: 0.9705, Obj: 0.9390/0.9220/0.8770, Stop: 0.9840 Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 7

KEY SUPPORT 1.2319 / 1.2100

AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily charts, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

GBP/JPY

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

3 October, 2011

Corrective phase favoured to continue.

GBP/JPY appears to have completed an initial recovery leg higher after peaking at 120.85. Given the structure present since 116.84 there is an expectation of a further recovery leg higher back towards 123.31. eventual lower high is sought for a re-test of 116.84 and then 115.00. A break back under 117.77 will warn of an earlier return to weakness, targeting 116.84 immediately. With the above in mind it is preferred to wait for a bounce towards 123.31 for a short strategy. A sustained push back over this level will warn of a larger recovery phase. An

GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Possibly looking to sell higher.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 8

EUR/JPY

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

3 October, 2011

While above 101.94 a further recovery leg is favoured.

EUR/JPY has potentially completed an initial recovery leg higher reaching 104.96 thus far. While above 101.94 there remains scope for a further recovery leg higher to test the region around the key high at 106.99 where a lower high would be favoured to form. The scenario above is tempered by the possibility of further weakness in equity markets which may impact EUR/JPY to the downside, greatly reducing the likelihood of the scenario mentioned above. In order to negate the medium-term bearish bias, we require a sustained push back over 108.03.

EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Buy limit 3 at 102.20, Objs: 103.50/105.00/106.80, Stop: 101.80.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 9

EUR/GBP

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

3 October, 2011

Breaks down towards the key low at 0.8530.

EUR/GBP has broken clear of its old hourly range of the last few weeks which had been contained between 0.8795 and 0.8652. Now trading just above the key low at 0.8530 and close to long-term trend-line support from 0.8068, warns of a return to weakness. We continue to think that the medium term structure which has seen a push under 0.8672 suggests that the rise seen since 0.8285 may be complete. We focus on trying to achieve the best trade location possible keeping the short-term bearish bias in mind. squeeze higher to sell into. EUR/GBP weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP It is thus deemed best to wait for a

EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 0.8645, Objs: 0.8525/0.8385/0.8200, Stop: 0.8705

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 10

EUR/CHF

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

3 October, 2011

Continues to trade close to the 1.2200 level.

EUR/CHF continues to trade in a tight hourly range close to 1.2200, just below the current location of the 200 day moving average (1.2342). The bias remains to the upside given the earlier false break lower from a falling daily channel and weekly wedge. Should a break over the 200 day moving average take place, an attempt at the 50 week moving average (currently at 1.2497) would then be likely. Recent trade has seen the market willing to trade with the bias of the SNB. However, should price reach the 1.2500/3000 region, further gains in this cross will become more dependent on Swiss economic releases. Sustained under 1.2148 will weaken the very near-term outlook and sustained under 1.2024 will warn of a complete change in SNB EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP strategy/economic conditions in Switzerland.

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND
Await fresh signal, with a bias to long positioning.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 11

GOLD
GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS
DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1534 UPSIDE: $1935 / $2000

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

3 October, 2011
RISK (1935)

RISK ZONE III 20% SO FAR

RISK of a larger decline beneath $1600.

Lowered final objective to 1300. Golds short-term downtrend remains bearish, after its dramatic 20% price fall, which helped confirm the extreme overbought conditions (marked by DeMark indicators), that perfectly

DEMARK SIGNAL WARNED OF GOLDS OVERBOUGHT CONDITIONS WHICH LED TO A $200 DROP IN 3 DAYS! $1704

timed with a key cycle peak, ahead of that all-important 2000 glass-ceiling. The move was also pressured by the CMEs recent 55% hike in margin requirements, which can trigger major reversals at trend extremes.

$1600

34%
$1534 BREAKOUT
200-DMA NOT TESTED IN 3 YEARS!

There is heightened risk of a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly close beneath 1600 and 1534 (200-day MA), which has not been breahed in over 3 years! This would help extend Golds throw-over signal from its 12-year bull-channel.

26% BIGGEST DRAWDOWNS 34% (2008) 26% (2006) TREND 25% (1999) CHANNEL AVERAGE = 28% (12 YEARS)

The big picture tells us that the largest price falls during Golds long-term bull-market (34% in 1999, 26% in 2006 & 34% in 2008), equates to an average drawdown of 28% downside risk. Further downside scope is found at 1300 and potentially even 1000. Remember, this would still be consistent with Golds long-term uptrend and offer a buying opportunity.
Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:

I
25%

Special Report Golds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600

MIG Bank Gold Interview on CNBC Squawk Box
(CNBC & BLOOMBERG REPORTS)

MIG Bank Gold Webinar video

GOLD Weekly LOG Chart (1999-2011)

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Short 1 at 1805, Obj: 1300, Stop: 1704

Gold, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 12

SILVER
Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! Silver (Daily)
DEMARK SELL SIGNALS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

3 October, 2011
DEMARK SELL SIGNAL 13 13

13

KEY support at 26.4000.

Silvers latest price capitulation is a painful reminder to the investment community that lightning can strike twice. Note, this marks the second time silver has crashed, following its 30% fall from April this year.

200 DMA (32.8700)

II

The move was triggered following a DeMark exhaustion sell signal and has now wiped out almost 50% of silvers prior gains (taken from Silvers

KEY SUPPORT

all-time high at 49.7900) which was last seen in 1980.

38.2% (32.3135)

Such dramatic moves traditionally produce volatile trading ranges. This

Gold/Silver Ratio 50% (26.9150)

allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.

61.8% (21.5165)

Expect a large trading range to hold between 37.0000-26.0700 over the multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into 21.5165 (61.8% Fib-1999 bull market) and 20.0000. This would still maintain silvers long-

67%
13 YEAR LEVEL UNWINDING 67% FROM OVERSOLD TERRITORY

term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual resumption higher.

OVER

30 YEAR BASE
BULL MARKET FROM 1999

Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio which has now accelerated higher by 67%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.

Silver Monthly (since 1980)

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell stop 3 at 29.1000, Obj: 26.0700/21.5200/19.5000, Stop: 32.5200

Spot Silver daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 13

LEGAL TERMS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

3 October, 2011

DISCLAIMER

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever. The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before making any investment decision. All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

Limitation of liability
MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind, including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

Material Interests
MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright
All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.

www.migbank.com

14

CONTACT

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

3 October, 2011

Howard Friend www.migbank.com Chief Market Strategist h.friend@migbank.com

Ron William Technical Strategist r.william@migbank.com

Bjioy Kar Technical Strategist b.kar@migbank.com

MIG BANK info@migbank.com www.migbank.com

14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Tel.+41 32 722 81 00 15