Stock Market Trends & Observations

Stock Market Trends Weekly Update 10/22/11

P os tedO c tober2 2 ,2 0 1 1 byBob Categories:WE E KL Y U P D A T E

Email Subscription
Enteryouremailaddressto followthisblogautomatically. Whenyousignupyoumust confirmyoursubscriptionin thefollowupemail.

WEEKLY UPDAT E FOLLOWS T HE BREAK PDF FILE If y ou are reading this in a PDF file, click on the following link for better formatting Stock Market T rends & Observ ations CHART S MY CHART LINK (updated constantly ) Im now getting in ex cess of 1 5,000 hits per month on the abov e chart link.
open in browser PRO version
Are you a developer? Try out the HTML to PDF API

Signmeup!

Recent Posts
StockMarketTrendsWeekly Update10/22/11 IMPORTANTStockMarket Update10/19/11 StockMarketUpdate

pdfcrowd.com

This link is my personally used chart list and it has ev ery thing I need. If y ou hav e a suggestion for the charts, please let me know. I usually draw my trend lines and wav e counts on a daily basis (sometimes more often). These charts are the roadmap to y our tactics. Page 1 Index es With 1 Minute Bars Page 2 Index es With 5 Minute Bars Page 3 Index es With 1 5 Minute Bars Page 4 Index es With 30 Minute Bars Page 5 Index es With 60 Minute Bars Page 6 Index es With Daily Bars (candlesticks last 1 3 months) Page 7 Index es With Daily Bars (since Nov ember 2008) Page 8 Index es With Weekly Bars Page 9 Index es With Monthly Bars Pages 1 0 through 1 3 are indicators. The indicators are used to simply look for some ty pe of leading action before a turn or confirm ing action of the wav e count. Page 1 0 is a look ev ery day page. The other indicator pages are less frequently v isited. Page 1 4 through 26 are sector ETFs. They represent most of the activ e sector ETFs and are alway s a good bet when looking for something that is breaking in a new direction. Page 27 through 39 are growth stocks. These are stocks that hav e risen in price since 1 990. One qualification is that they must not be sev erely damaged in a bear market so they cant rise to significant new highs in the following bull market. The growth stocks show daily market action for the last 3 y ears and weekly prices since 1 990. This giv es a good perspectiv e of how they hav e behav ed in the immediate past (daily charts) and
open in browser PRO version
Are you a developer? Try out the HTML to PDF API

StockMarketUpdate 10/16/11 StockMarketUpdate 10/10/11 StockMarketFact10/02/11

Archives
October2011(5) September2011(17) August2011(33) July2011(17) June2011(10)

Categories
DAILYUPDATE(62) EDSONGOULD(1) GLOSSARY(1) SELL/BUYACTIONUPDATE (10) WEEKLYUPDATE(15)

October2011 M T W T F 3 4 5 6 7 S S 1 8 2 9

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

pdfcrowd.com

how they behav ed during good and bad times (weekly charts). WAVE COUNT S SIMPLIFIED Myw avecountsarenotElliottWave!Itsdifferent,simpleand functionsw ithoutamazeofexclusions. There are 3 peaks to a completed wav e count. A rev ersal of trend takes place after a completed wav e count. Often times its as simple as counting 3 bumps on a chart . . . Other times, not so easy . In a downtrend the same rules apply ex cept y ou are counting 3 v alley s instead of 3 peaks. Each step m ust stay confined to a channel. Lay ing a pen or pencil on the chart will help y ou v isualize the channel. As the trend progresses, all of the steps that make up the ov erall current trend will also be confined to a larger channel. When the m arket breaks a channel (regardless of the perceived wav e count), the current step has been term inated. (Make sure y our channel was correct before calling a termination). A single wav e may sub-div ide into another 3 wav es. I will call this an ex tension. When this happens (1 ) the trend is still intact, (2) the channel has widened and (3) instead of a total of 3 steps, there will be 5 steps. (Seeing an ex ample in the charts will help y ou understand this concept.) Sometimes I will use the terms step and wav e interchangeably , but usually a wav e is considered to be larger than a step. Reading the glossary helps in the understanding of this blog. Glossary Link
open in browser PRO version
Are you a developer? Try out the HTML to PDF API

24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Sep

Wall Street Quotes

Theessenceofinvestment managementisthe managementofrisks,notthe managementofreturns.Well managedportfoliosstartwith thisprecept. BenjaminGraham Thetimeofmaximum pessimismisthebesttimeto buyandthetimeofmaximum optimismisthebesttimeto sell. JohnTempleton Buyonthecannons, sellonthetrumpets. OldFrenchProverb Rule#1:Neverlosemoney. Rule#2:Neverforgetrule#1 WarrenBuffett Thefourmostdangerous wordsininvestingare "Thistimeit'sdifferent". JohnTempleton "Thistimeit'sdifferent"was prevalentduringthebubble of2000.In1929itwascalled pdfcrowd.com

ABBREVIAT IONS DJI = Dow Jones Industrials DJT = Dow Jones Transportations SPX = SP 500 ES = SP 500 Futures COMPQ = Nasdaq Composite Index TSX = Toronto Stock Ex change (Canadian blue chips) SOX = Semiconductors XLY = Consumer

"NewEconomics". Bob Historyalwaysrepeats,only thedetailschange. EdsonGould Ifyouhavetroubleimagining a20%lossinthestock market,youshouldn'tbein stocks. John(Jack)Bogle Stockareboughton GeraldLoeb Emotionsareyourworst enemyinthestockmarket. DonHays P/EratioThepercentageof investorswettingtheirpants asthemarketkeeps crashing. Anonymous HerdMentality Men,ithasbeenwellsaid, thinkinherdsitwillbeseen thattheygomadinherds, whiletheyonlyrecovertheir sensesslowly,andoneby one. ExtraordinaryPopular DelusionsandtheMadnessof Crowds pdfcrowd.com

************************************************************************************ expectations,notfacts. WEEKLY UPDAT E CLICK ON CHART S T O ENLARGE Short T erm Oct 4, 2011 T o Present Breakout T o Sm all Step 2 Underway (Lg Cap Breakout Unconfirm ed) SHORT T ERM COMMENT S

open in browser PRO version

Are you a developer? Try out the HTML to PDF API

HerdMentality CasessuchasTulipomaniain 1624whenTulipbulbs tradedatahigherpricethan goldsuggesttheexistence ofwhatIwoulddub "Mackay'sLawofMass Action:"whenitcomestothe effectofsocialbehavioron theintelligenceofindividuals, 1+1isoftenlessthan2,and sometimesconsiderablyless than0. ExtraordinaryPopular DelusionsandtheMadnessof Crowds Imademoneybysellingtoo soon. BernardBaruch Ifallyouhaveisahammer, everythinglookslikeanail. BernardBaruch Themainpurposeofthe stockmarketistomakefools ofasmanypeopleas possible. BernardBaruch Thehardestpartofabull marketisstayingon. Abubbleisabullmarketin whichyoudon'thavea

open in browser PRO version

Are you a developer? Try out the HTML to PDF API

pdfcrowd.com

position. Abuyandholdstrategyisa shorttermtradethatwent wrong. October,thisisoneofthe peculiarlydangerousmonths tospeculateinstocks.The othersareJuly,January, September,April,November, May,June,December,August andFebruary. MarkTwain Economistshavepredicted14 ofthelast3recessions. MarketCorrectionTheday afteryoubuystocks. In2008stockswereagood buy.....Goodbye Mercedes,goodbyeyacht, goodbyevacationhome, goodbye... Marketscanremainirrational longerthanyoucanremain solvent. JohnMaynardKeynes
1 0 -2 2 -1 1 SHORT T ERM

Moneytalks,butallmineever saysis"goodbye" Don'tgamble.Takeallofyour savingsandbuysomegood

It appears that the large caps hav e broken out into step 2 up, after a high lev el consolidation. The problem is that other index es hav e failed to
open in browser PRO version
Are you a developer? Try out the HTML to PDF API

pdfcrowd.com

confirm this mov e up. Well hav e to wait and see what happens early nex t week. In the early day s of a new uptrend, ev ery one marches upward and usually the NASDAQ is out front. Presently the NASDAQ is lagging the large caps. If the trend is v alid this should be corrected quickly , otherwise an upside failure could be possible.

savingsandbuysomegood stockandholdituntilitgoes up,thensellit.Ifitdon'tgo up,don'tbuyit. WillRogers

Returnofprincipalismore importantthanthereturnon ************************************************************************************ principal.

Interm ediate T erm 3 Steps Down Appears Com plete February 2011 T o October 4, 2011 Step 1 Up Underway

Hopeisyourworstenemyin themarket. Don'tcatchafallingknife. Spendatleastasmuchtime researchingastockasyou wouldchoosingarefrigerator. PeterLynch Whenyourealizethatyou areridingadeadhorsethe beststrategyistodismount. SiouxIndianProverb Dontevermakethemistake oftellingthemarketitis wrong. JamesDines WallStreetneverchanges, thepocketschange,the suckerschange,thestocks change,butWallStreetnever changes,becausehuman natureneverchanges. JesseLivermore

open in browser PRO version

Are you a developer? Try out the HTML to PDF API

pdfcrowd.com

LetWallStreethavea nightmareandthewhole countryhastohelpgetthem backinbedagain WillRogers Bullsmakesmoney,bears makesmoney,pigsget slaughtered. MyGrandfather Neverbuyastockthatwon't goupinabullmarket.Never sellastockthatwon'tgo downinabearmarket. WallStreetisastreetwitha riveratoneendanda graveyardattheother. Nevercheckstockpricesona Friday,itcouldspoilyour weekend. Nobodyismorebearishthan asoldoutbull. Thepublicisrightduringthe trendsbutwrongatboth ends. HumphreyNeill Thosewhocan,do. Thosewhocant,teach. Thosewhocantteach,work forthegovernment.

1 0 -2 2 -1 1 INT ERMEDIA T E T ERM

1 0 -2 2 -1 1 INT ERMEDIA T E T ERM 2

************************************************************************************
open in browser PRO version
Are you a developer? Try out the HTML to PDF API

pdfcrowd.com

Long T erm Uptrend Mar 2009 T o Present Step 2 Up (of 3) Com pleted From the bottom in March 2009 Large step one up ended in May 201 0 Large step two up ended in May 201 1 . Large step three up will begin when the decline beginning in February /May is finished. The correction following large step two up is alway s larger than the step one correction and to date that has been true.

Neverselladullmarketshort. Iselleuphoriaandbuy panic. Thewayhedeterminesthat istowaituntilpricesstart gappinginthecharts. Gappingontheupsideis euphoria,whilegappingon thedownsideispanic. JimmyRogerscourtesyofJeff Saut "Cutyourlossesandletyour profitsrun." Don'tmarryastock.Every stockmustbesold. OftentimesWHENyoutakea positioncanbemore importantthanWHATyou takeapositionin. Bob

About T his Blog

ObservationsofStockMarket Trendsusesseveral proprietarytechnical indicatorsdiscoveredbythe author.Theobjectofthisblog istonotifyyou(preferablyin advance)oftheimportant topsandbottomsinthestock market.Weknowthat's

open in browser PRO version

Are you a developer? Try out the HTML to PDF API

pdfcrowd.com

impossible,butnevertheless, it'sattemptedinthisblog. "ObservationsofStock MarketTrends"ispublished onanirregularschedulebuta dailyupdateislikelywhenwe arenearastockmarket inflectionpoint. Ifyoufindtheblog interesting,pleasebecomea followerbyenteringyour emailaddressinthesection "EmailSubscription"(topof thiscolumn).Youmustalso confirmyouremail subscriptionbyclickingona linkintheconfirmationemail, otherwiseyouain't subscribed.

1 0 -2 2 -1 1 LONG T ERM

************************************************************************************

Disclosure

Very Long T erm Downtrend Jan 2000 T o Present Step 2 Down (of 3) Com pleted

Thecontentonthisblogis meanttobeentertaining informationandshouldnotbe construedasinvestment advice.

open in browser PRO version

Are you a developer? Try out the HTML to PDF API

pdfcrowd.com

Nostatementbytheblog's authorshouldbeinterpreted asarecommendationtobuy orsellanysecurity,financial instrument,ortoparticipate inatradingorinvestment strategy. Anyinvestmentdecisionby anyonethatresultsinlosses orgainsbasedoninformation fromthisblogisnotthe responsibilityoftheblog's author. Theblog'sauthorwillmake statementsaboutcertain investmentvehiclesand strategies,butIt'ssimplythe authorexpressinghis opinion,oraction,regarding hisowninvestments.These opinionsarenevertobe construedasinvestment advice.

1 0 -2 2 -1 1 V ERY LONG T ERM

About Me
VERY LONG T ERM COMMENT S We hav e 3 possibilities for the future. We hav e entered a v ery wide swinging market (megaphone formation) similar to that of 1 966 to 1 97 4. During that era we had three bear markets with two interv ening bull market rallies. Each
open in browser PRO version
Are you a developer? Try out the HTML to PDF API

With55yearsofstudyingand investinginthestockmarket, Iamsharingthese experiencesandknowledge bywritingastockmarket blog.Thisblogrelieson severaluniqueand

pdfcrowd.com

bear market had a lower low than the prev ious bear. The interv ening bull market rallies saw new all time highs before the nex t bear market began. We also hav e formed a huge head and shoulders formation since 1 998. If this formation is v alid, the downside measurement calls for a bottom around Dow Jones Industrials 1 ,000. We began a v ery long term bull market that began in March 2009. Each subsequent min-bear markets will result in higher lows than the prior major low. Since 2000 we hav e had two bear markets, 2000 to 2003 and 2007 to 2009. Like 1 966 to 1 97 4, the recov ery from the first bear market saw a new all time high (2007 peak). Its possible that we may ex perience another all time high during the present recov ery period. This would support the megaphone formation. A failure to make new highs would support the head and shoulders argument. In both formations the conclusion of the present recov ery would call for a third and final bear market. An estimated time for the conclusion of the final bear market is approx imately 201 8. The lesser downside target of both formations is the megaphone formation as it likely calls for a bottom 1 ,000 to 2,000 points below the 2009 low, which would be around Dow 5,000. In the head and shoulders formation the measurement calls for a bottom around Dow Jones Industrials 1 ,000. This is almost an unimaginable ev ent as I try to v isualize the fundamentals inv olv ed. If this did happen, ev ery thing that could go wrong would hav e to go wrong. The reasons range from the absurd to the absurd. This scenario is so dark that it doesnt seem possible but nev ertheless, the head and shoulders formation is there and will be waiting until we pierce the all-time highs of
open in browser PRO version
Are you a developer? Try out the HTML to PDF API

severaluniqueand proprietaryindicators. Ihavebeencorrectatsome ofthebiggestmarketturnsin thelast40years.Iwasshort formostof19731974, reversedcourseandbecame abuyerduringtheweek beforeChristmas1974.Iwas alsoshortformostofthefirst halfof1982butbecamea buyeronAugust4,1982.This wasfivedaysbeforethe August9,1982blastoffon thehistoricbullmarketrunof the1980sand1990s.In 1999Ibegantollingthebell onthestockmarketknowing thattheendwasnear(no onelistened).InMarch2003, priortothebeginningofthe IraqwarIbecamevery bullishwhenitwasobvious thattherewasnoreasonto ownstocksandwehadalso achievedadoublebottom. ShortlyaftertheOctober 2007peakIbecameaseller andbear.Dayspriortothe March2009bottom,Ibought stocksinanticipationofa verygoodrallythatturned intoabigbullrun.Inthelater stagesoftheFebruaryMay 2011toppingprocess,I

pdfcrowd.com

formation is there and will be waiting until we pierce the all-time highs of October 2007 . Remember these are simply possible scenarios and are not embedded in fact. Whatev er the outcome, it nev er hurts to be a little cautious with some of y our money . But in the worst case scenario, ev ery thing that we take for granted as being safe . . . . would not be safe. This is something to nev er forget in the ev ent things go v ery badly .

beganwarningofan importantmarketcorrection. Onemanwasresponsiblefor myeducation,EdsonGould, thegreatesttechnicianthat everlived.

Afterreadingmanyofthe booksonstockmarket technicalanalysis,Ifound Hopefully we will nev er hav e to think about worst case scenarios other thatallofthesemethodshad than to hav e a good laugh at them presently . highfailurerates.Isearched foraformulathatworked ************************************************************************************ consistentlyandin1973I subscribedtoEdsonGould's REAL EST AT E "Findings&Forecasts".HereI struckgoldwiththemaster Here is a PDF report on the cy clic nature of real estate prices. Any one technicianofthe20th interested in cy cles and real estate should find it of interest. century.Extendinghis methodsIdiscoveredseveral Real Estate Cy cles proprietaryindicatorsthatI usetoday.

************************************************************************************ EDSON GOULD Edson Gould, Prem ier Stock Market Strategist I hav e posted some of his ideas and writing on this blog. He had a profound influence on the dev elopment of my techniques and proprietary indicators. I will post more of his writing at a later date. After 40 y ears I still hav e many of the publications from his adv isory serv ice, Findings & Forecasts. Edson Gould Link
open in browser PRO version
Are you a developer? Try out the HTML to PDF API

Ifyoufindmyobservationsof interestpleaseaddyour emailaddresstothesection, "EmailSubscription".

Spam Blocked

33
spam comments

pdfcrowd.com

************************************************************************************ T RANSACT ION SIGNALS ALL ACTIONABLE SIGNALS (buy or sell) ARE ONLY FOR SHORT TERM TIME FRAMES. These signals are not designed for intermediate or long term time frames BUT . . . . . After a short term buy signal, long term tax status can be achiev ed by a continuation of the upward trend, which causes short term actions to morph into long term holdings. See more details in the glossary under Tax es, Futures Contracts and Money Management. Glossary Link T RANSACT ION RECORD In this blog a warning of an impending bottom (or top) is often issued well in adv ance of the formal buy or sell date. This allows thoughtful consideration prior to a formal action signal. To get a sense of how this works, y ou should read a few day s prior to a formal buy /sell signal. I often buy /sell in my personal account based on the early warnings. The transaction record near stock market bottoms will show that I am v ery skittish and usually remain so until the new direction is well underway . SELL SEPT EMBER 9, 2011 BUY AUGUST 30, 2011 SELL AUGUST 30, 2011 Stopped out, re-bought quickly
open in browser PRO version
Are you a developer? Try out the HTML to PDF API

pdfcrowd.com

BUY AUGUST 29, 2011 SELL AUGUST 25, 2011 BUY AUGUST 23, 2011 SELL AUGUST 1, 2011 BUY JUNE 23, 2011 ************************************************************************************ MISCELANEOUS There are useful items throughout this blog. For instance, the Wall Street Quotes can be v ery instructiv e. So make sure and look all through the blog.
Sharethis: Twitter Digg Facebook Email Print LinkedIn Reddit

Comments:Be the firsttocom m e nt

IMPORTANT Stock Market Update 10/19/11

P os tedO c tober1 9 ,2 0 1 1 byBob Categories:D A I L Y U P D A T E

UPDAT E FOLLOWS T HE BREAK WAVE COUNT S SIMPLIFIED Myw avecountsarenotElliottWave!Thesearedifferent,simple andfunctionw ithoutamazeofexclusions.
open in browser PRO version
Are you a developer? Try out the HTML to PDF API

pdfcrowd.com

There are 3 peaks to a completed wav e count. A rev ersal of trend takes place after a completed wav e count. Often times its as simple as counting 3 bumps on a chart . . . Other times, not so easy . In a downtrend the same rules apply ex cept y ou are counting 3 v alley s instead of 3 peaks. Each step m ust stay confined to a channel. Lay ing a pen or pencil on the chart will help y ou v isualize the channel. As the trend progresses, all of the steps that make up the ov erall current trend will also be confined to a larger channel. When the m arket breaks a channel (regardless of the perceived wav e count), the current step has been term inated. (Make sure y our channel was correct before calling a termination). A single wav e may sub-div ide into another 3 wav es. I will call this an ex tension. When this happens (1 ) the trend is still intact, (2) the channel has widened and (3) instead of a total of 3 steps, there will be 5 steps. (Seeing an ex ample in the charts will help y ou understand this concept.) Sometimes I will use the terms step and wav e interchangeably , but usually a wav e is considered to be larger than a step. Reading the glossary helps in the understanding of this blog. Glossary Link ABBREVIAT IONS DJI = Dow Jones Industrials DJT = Dow Jones Transportations SPX = SP 500 ES = SP 500 Futures
open in browser PRO version
Are you a developer? Try out the HTML to PDF API

pdfcrowd.com

COMPQ = Nasdaq Composite Index TSX = Toronto Stock Ex change (Canadian blue chips) SOX = Semiconductors XLY = Consumer CHART S MY CHART LINK (updated constantly ) The abov e link has my charts, which are constantly updated during market trading. The index es dont lag current market trading. I usually update the charts daily (or more often) with wav e counts and trend lines. These charts are the roadmap to y our tactics. Page 1 Index es With 1 Minute Bars Page 2 Index es With 5 Minute Bars Page 3 Index es With 1 5 Minute Bars Page 4 Index es With 30 Minute Bars Page 5 Index es With 60 Minute Bars Page 6 Index es With Daily Bars (candlesticks last 1 3 months) Page 7 Index es With Daily Bars (since Nov ember 2008) Page 8 Index es With Weekly Bars Page 9 Index es With Monthly Bars Pages 1 0 through 1 3 are indicators. The indicators are used to simply look for some ty pe of leading action before a turn or confirm ing action of the wav e count. Page 1 4 through 26 are sector ETFs. They represent most of the activ e sector ETFs. Page 27 through 39 are growth stocks. These are stocks that hav e risen in price since 1 990. One qualification is that they must not be sev erely damaged in a bear market so they cant rise to
open in browser PRO version
Are you a developer? Try out the HTML to PDF API

pdfcrowd.com

significant new highs in the following bull market. The growth stocks show daily market action for the last 3 y ears and weekly prices since 1 990. This giv es a good perspectiv e of how they hav e behav ed in the immediate past (daily charts) and how they behav ed during good and bad times (weekly charts). ************************************************************************************ DAILY UPDAT E T HIS IS A WAT CH CAREFULLY UPDAT E PREVIEW T O A POSSIBLE BUY RECOMMENDAT ION As predicted the market has been consolidating since my last update . . . but we hav e to be alert to the possibility that we are forming a high lev el consolidation. It looks like a correction but it also looks like a continued mov e to the upside. The market was marking time today waiting for the FED Beige Book report. I hav ent looked at the report but the market say s it wasnt particularly good reading and thats all that counts. The market is declining but Im watching carefully to see if the decline ends around DJI 1 1 ,400 and doesnt v iolate the recent low of 1 1 ,300. That would create a rev erse head and shoulders that measures to about DJI 1 2,000. The Fibonacci retracement lev el of 61 % is about 1 1 ,940 and that coincides nicely with 1 2,000. A significant mov e abov e DJI 1 1 ,7 00 (to 1 2,000 or bey ond) would constitute a breakout of the bottom formation and would be v iewed as a positiv e dev elopment.
open in browser PRO version
Are you a developer? Try out the HTML to PDF API

pdfcrowd.com

Abreakoutatthistim ewouldnotsurprisem ejustasanother stabatthebottom areatoform therightshoulderofthe m uchlargerheadandshouldersform ationwouldalsonotbe asurprise.Them arketwillm akethedecisionshereandIm notgoingtotellitwhattodo. As y ou can see from the chart below, we hav e completed 3 steps down and are entitled to a 3 step up. Any up mov e could mov e back close to the old highs (May 201 1 ) or bey ond. Whether this mov e becomes large step 3 dating from March 2009 will be left for another day . But if its the beginning of large step 3, we would mov e to significantly higher highs than May 201 1 .

1 0 -1 9 -1 1 DJI 6 0 m in ba r s

Sharethis:

Twitter Digg

Facebook Email Print

LinkedIn

Reddit

Comments:Be the firsttocom m e nt

open in browser PRO version

Are you a developer? Try out the HTML to PDF API

pdfcrowd.com

Stock Market Update 10/16/11

P os tedO c tober1 6 ,2 0 1 1 byBob Categories:D A I L Y U P D A T E

UPDAT E FOLLOWS T HE BREAK WAVE COUNT S SIMPLIFIED Thew avecountsarentElliottWave!Itsdifferent,simpleand usuallyw orks. There are 3 peaks to a completed wav e count. A rev ersal of trend takes place after a completed wav e count. Often times its as simple as counting 3 bumps on a chart . . . Other times, not so easy . In a downtrend the same rules apply ex cept y ou are counting 3 v ally es instead of 3 peaks. Each step m ust stay confined to a channel. Lay ing a pen or pencil on the chart will help y ou v isualize the channel. As the trend progresses, all of the steps that make up the ov erall current trend will also be confined to a larger channel. When the m arket breaks a channel (regardless of the perceived wav e count), the current step has been term inated. (Make sure y our channel was correct before calling a termination). A single wav e may sub-div ide into another 3 wav es. I will call this an ex tension. When this happens (1 ) the trend is still intact, (2) the channel has widened and (3) instead of a total of 3 steps, there will be 5 steps. (Seeing an ex ample in the charts will help y ou
open in browser PRO version
Are you a developer? Try out the HTML to PDF API

pdfcrowd.com

understand this concept.) Sometimes I will use the terms step and wav e interchangeably , but usually a wav e is considered to be larger than a step. Reading the glossary helps in the understanding of this blog. Glossary Link ABBREVIAT IONS DJI = Dow Jones Industrials DJT = Dow Jones Transportations SPX = SP 500 ES = SP 500 Futures COMPQ = Nasdaq Composite Index TSX = Toronto Stock Ex change (Canadian blue chips) SOX = Semiconductors XLY = Consumer CHART S MY CHART LINK (updated constantly ) The abov e link has my charts, which are constantly updated during market trading. The index es dont lag current market trading. I usually update the charts daily (or more often) with wav e counts and trend lines. These charts are the roadmap to y our tactics. Page 1 Index es With 1 Minute Bars Page 2 Index es With 5 Minute Bars Page 3 Index es With 1 5 Minute Bars Page 4 Index es With 30 Minute Bars Page 5 Index es With 60 Minute Bars
open in browser PRO version
Are you a developer? Try out the HTML to PDF API

pdfcrowd.com

Page 6 Index es With Daily Bars (candlesticks last 1 3 months) Page 7 Index es With Daily Bars (since Nov ember 2008) Page 8 Index es With Weekly Bars Page 9 Index es With Monthly Bars Pages 1 0 through 1 3 are indicators. The indicators are used to simply look for some ty pe of leading action before a turn or confirm ing action of the wav e count. Beginning on page 1 4 are growth stocks. These are stocks that hav e risen in price since 1 990. One qualification is that they must not be sev erely damaged in a bear market so they cant rise to significant new highs in the following bull market. The growth stocks show daily market action for the last 3 y ears and weekly prices since 1 990. This giv es a good perspectiv e of how they hav e behav ed in the immediate past (daily charts) and how they behav ed during good and bad times (weekly charts). ************************************************************************************ DAILY UPDAT E We hav e retraced 50% (Fibonacci ratio number) of the decline since the May peak. The market is ov erbought and a correction could begin at any time, but . ... When y ou are in a continuing bull phase the market becomes ov erbought and stay s that way for weeks or months before a correction takes place. Im not say ing that we are in a bull phase but one should alway s be alert to a significant change in trend. Its certainly true that we finished 3 steps down since the May peak (see charts, page 5 or 6).
open in browser PRO version
Are you a developer? Try out the HTML to PDF API

pdfcrowd.com

Another stab at the bottom is likely and that could be the right shoulder of a possible rev erse head and shoulders. The measurement on this H&S is at least to the May 201 1 highs.
Sharethis: Twitter Digg Facebook Email Print LinkedIn Reddit

Comments:Be the firsttocom m e nt

Stock Market Update 10/10/11

P os tedO c tober1 0 ,2 0 1 1 byBob Categories:D A I L Y U P D A T E

UPDAT E FOLLOWS T HE BREAK WAVE COUNT S SIMPLIFIED Thew avecountsarentElliottWave!Itsdifferent,simpleand usuallyw orks. There are 3 peaks to a completed wav e count. A rev ersal of trend takes place after a completed wav e count. Often times its as simple as counting 3 bumps on a chart . . . Other times, not so easy . In a downtrend the same rules apply ex cept y ou are counting 3 v alley s instead of 3 peaks. Each step m ust stay confined to a channel. Lay ing a pen or pencil on the chart will help y ou v isualize the channel.
open in browser PRO version
Are you a developer? Try out the HTML to PDF API

pdfcrowd.com

As the trend progresses, all of the steps that make up the ov erall current trend will also be confined to a larger channel. When the m arket breaks a channel (regardless of the perceived wav e count), the current step has been term inated. A single wav e may sub-div ide into another 3 wav es. I will also call this an ex tension. When this happens (1 ) the trend is still intact, (2) the channel has widened and (3) instead of a total of 3 steps, there will be 5 steps. (The charts will help y ou understand this concept.) Sometimes I will use the terms step and wav e interchangeably , but usually a wav e is considered to be larger than a step. Wav e Counts In Charts Numbers of the same color represent steps within the same wav e. For instance, red 1 , red 2 and red 3 are steps within the same wav e. Different colored numbers represent steps in totally separate wav es. For instance, a red 1 occurs in one wav e while a blue 1 occurs in a totally separate wav e (refer to charts for ex amples). Reading the glossary helps a great deal in the understanding of this blog. Glossary Link ABBREVIAT IONS DJI = Dow Jones Industrials DJT = Dow Jones Transportations SPX = SP 500 ES = SP 500 Futures COMPQ = Nasdaq Composite Index
open in browser PRO version
Are you a developer? Try out the HTML to PDF API

pdfcrowd.com

TSX = Toronto Stock Ex change (Canadian blue chips) SOX = Semiconductors XLY = Consumer CHART S MY CHART LINK (updated constantly ) This link has my charts, which are alway s current and constantly updated during market trading. They dont lag market trading by 1 5 minutes which is true of many charts. There are 9 pages of index charts. Each page consists of (1 ) the same stock market index es, and (2) the same time frame. The time represented by each v ertical bar is the same on each page but increases in length on each succeeding page. The v ertical bars on the 9 pages ranges from 1 minute to 1 month. The final pages of these charts consists of growth stocks. These are stocks that hav e constantly risen in price since 1 990. One qualification is that they must not be sev erely damaged in a bear market so they cant rise to significant new highs in the following bull market. The growth stocks show daily market action for the last 3 y ears and weekly prices since 1 990. This giv es a good perspectiv e to how they hav e behav ed in the immediate past (daily charts) and how they behav ed during good and bad times (weekly charts). ************************************************************************************ DAILY UPDAT E Watch my chart link (abov e) for wav e counts and trendlines. I may not be writing in the blog but I try to update the charts when I hav e a
open in browser PRO version
Are you a developer? Try out the HTML to PDF API

pdfcrowd.com

chance. I am watching carefully for indications that we hav e finished a large step 3 down (since May ). Finishing step 3 requires a channel break of the downtrend and that hasnt taken place. Presently it looks like we are step 3 up since the bottom of October 4th. After completion of this third step, well see what kind of correction takes place. If a reasonable retracement takes place and rallies strongly into a higher high, it would indicate more rally ahead with the present 3 steps turning into step 1 up. Otherwise a weak rally into new highs abov e step 3 (counting from Oct. 4th) would probably indicate token new rally highs. One future possibility would be if we can rally back to Dow 1 1 ,7 00 and trend lower without a new low, it could raise the possibility of a REV ERSE head and shoulders formation. If true, it would measure to the old highs of May 201 1 . Ill write more as I can.
Sharethis: Twitter Digg Facebook Email Print LinkedIn Reddit

Comments:Be the firsttocom m e nt

Stock Market Fact 10/02/11

P os tedO c tober2 ,2 0 1 1 byBob

open in browser PRO version

Are you a developer? Try out the HTML to PDF API

pdfcrowd.com

Categories:D A I L Y U P D A T E ,WE E KL Y U P D A T E

MY CHART LINK (updated constantly ) This link has my charts, which are alway s current and constantly updated during market trading. They dont lag market trading by 1 5 minutes which is true of many charts. There are 9 pages of index charts. Each page consists of (1 ) the same stock market index es, and (2) the same time frame. The time represented by each v ertical bar is the same on each page but increases in length on each succeeding page. The v ertical bars on the 9 pages ranges from 1 minute to 1 month. The final pages of these charts consists of growth stocks. These are stocks that hav e constantly risen in price since 1 990. One qualification is that they must not be sev erely damaged in a bear market so they cant rise to significant new highs in the following bull market. The growth stocks show daily market action for the last 3 y ears and weekly prices since 1 990. This giv es a good perspectiv e to how they hav e behav ed in the immediate past (daily charts) and how they behav ed during good and bad times (weekly charts). ************************************************************************************ UPDAT E Morebearm arketsendinthem onthofOctoberthanany otherm onth!!! Keep that in mind while I am out of action.. ************************************************************************************
open in browser PRO version
Are you a developer? Try out the HTML to PDF API

pdfcrowd.com

Sharethis:

Twitter Digg

Facebook Email Print

LinkedIn

Reddit

Comments:Be the firsttocom m e nt

O lde rEntrie s

BlogatW ordPre ss.com .The m e :Sapphire byMichae lMartine .

Follow

FollowStockMarket Trends& Observations

Geteverynewpostdelivered toyourInbox. Enteremailaddress Signmeup!
Pow ered by WordPress.com

open in browser PRO version

Are you a developer? Try out the HTML to PDF API

pdfcrowd.com