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ASEAN, the ARF and Prospects p for an ASEAN Community Part P t2

Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer Presentation to Security Studies (Regional) Australian Command and Staff College October 18, 2011

1st ARF Bangkok (1994)

Brunei Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Australia Canada C d

China EuropeanUnion Japan SouthKorea NewZealand New Zealand PNG Russia UnitedStates Laos L

Myanmar y Cambodia Mongolia NorthKorea India Pakistan TimorLeste Timor Leste Bangladesh SriLanka S iL k

tofosterconstructivedialogueand to foster constr cti e dialog e and consultation onpoliticalandsecurity issuesofcommoninterestand i f i t t d concern;and tomakesignificantcontributionsto effortstowardsconfidencebuilding andpreventivediplomacy intheAsia Pacificregion.

DecisionsoftheARFshallbemadethrough consensusaftercarefulandextensive consultationsamongallparticipants.

novoting no voting

MoveatapacecomfortabletoallARF members ChairmanofARFisChairmanoftheASEAN StandingCommittee ChairmansStatementafterannualmeeting

Nonbinding

pp y, gp Theapproachshallbeevolutionary,takingplace inthreebroadstages,namely

thepromotionofconfidencebuilding, developmentofpreventivediplomacyand d l f d l d elaborationofapproachestoconflicts.

TheARFprocessisnowatStageI,andshall The ARF process is now at Stage I and shall continuetodiscussmeansofimplementing confidencebuilding. StageII,particularlywherethesubjectmatter overlap,canproceedintandem withStageI.

p/ g InterSessional Groups/Meetings
Mandates renewed annually Cochaired by ASEAN & NonASEAN

199597 ISM on Search and Rescue 199597 ISM on Peacekeeping k 199599 ISM on Disaster Relief

resumed 2004

1995presentISGonConfidence BuildingMeasures 2002 presentISMonCounter 2002present ISM on Counter Terrorism&TransnationalCrime 2009presentISMonMaritime 2009 present ISM on Maritime Security 2009presentISMonNon 2009 t ISM N Proliferation

Developmentofbasicprinciples D l fb i i i l Comprehensiveapproachestosecurity Dialogueonsecurityperceptions Voluntarydefensepolicystatements


AnnualSecurityOutlook Backgroundbriefingsonregionalsecurity

WhitePapersandotherpublications White Papers and other publications

UNConventionalArmsRegister Enhancedcontactsandhighlevelvisits h d d hi h l l i i Exchangesbetweenmilitaryacademiesand staffcolleges ff ll Annualseminarfordefenceofficials Observersatmilitaryexercises

ExplorationofRegionalArmsRegister Regionalsecuritystudiescentre Regional security studies centre Maritimeinformationdatabase CooperativeapproachestoSLOCs Mobilizationofdisasterreliefassistance Mobilization of disaster relief assistance

Maritimezonesofcooperation(South ) ChinaSea) Priornotificationmajormilitary deployments Disclosurebyarmsmanufacturersand supplierstodestinationofexports suppliers to destination of exports

Tohelppreventdisputesandconflictsfrom g p y arisingbetweenStatesthatcouldpotentially poseathreattoregionalpeaceandstability; Tohelppreventsuchdisputesandconflicts To help prevent such disputes and conflicts fromescalatingintoarmedconfrontation;and Tohelpminimizetheimpactofsuchdisputes To help minimize the impact of such disputes andconflictsontheregion.

EnhancedroleoftheARFChair Enhanced role of the ARF Chair ARFRegistersofExperts/Eminent Persons, AnnualSecurityOutlook and Voluntarybackgroundbriefingon regionalsecurityissues eg o a secu ty ssues

1.Requiresdiplomacy 2.Noncoercive 3.Timely q 4.Requirestrustand confidence 5.Consultationand consensus 6.Voluntary

7.Conflictsbetweenand amongstates 8.Internationallaw,UN Charter,Five PrinciplesofPeaceful Pi i l fP f l Coexistenceand ASEANTreatyof y Amityand Cooperation

Cyclone Nargis, May , 008 CycloneNargis,May2,2008

Myanmar

UN

ASEAN

Secretariat Secretary General G l Chair Member

10 Members Senior Diplomat D l Technical Expert

Venueformultilateraldialogueand V f ltil t l di l d consultations Habitsofdialogueandconsultationson politicalandsecurityissues WillingnessofARFparticipantstodiscuss awiderangeofsecurityissues multilaterally

Agreedprinciplesfordialogueand Agreed principles for dialogue and cooperation


consensus,noninterference,pacecomfortableto consensus non interference pace comfortable to all Peacefulsettlementofdifferences Peaceful settlement of differences

ContinuingCBMsasfoundation EnhancinglinkagesbetweenTrack1and E h i li k b T k1 d Track2intheARFprocesses

Greaterparticipationbydefenseand militaryofficials

ARFISMsandISGs

Networkingdevelopedamongnational y, y security,defenseandmilitaryofficials Transparencythroughexchangeof informationondefensepolicyand information on defense policy and publicationofwhitepapers

Prioritycooperationinfightagainst internationalterrorismandtransnational crime Supportfornonproliferation,armscontrol, disarmamentefforts disarmament efforts Preventivediplomacytentativesteps Butroleinconflictresolutionunlikely B t l i fli t l ti lik l

NorthKoreanuclearissues

15th ARF(2008)endorsesARFReviewPaper ARF (2008) endorses ARF Review Paper SeniorOfficialsdirectedtodrawupPreventative DiplomacyWorkPlan

prioritytonontraditionalsecuritychallenges ExplicitPDmeasurestopromotepeaceful cooperationandpreventdisputesandtensionsfrom cooperation and prevent disputes and tensions from escalatingintoarmedconflict

Phase2istoaccompanythedevelopmentofthe ASEANPoliticalSecurityCommunity

Good offices, fact finding, mediation offices finding Enhanced role of the ARF Chair Troika T ik past, present and f d future ARF Chairs Friends of the Chair ARF Experts and Eminent Persons p ASEAN Secretariat to assist - ARF Unit

ASEAN Community 2015


Three P ll Th Pillars PoliticalSecurity Economic E i SocioCultural

PlanofAction Plan of Action


I. II. III. IV. V. VI.

PoliticalDevelopment ShapingandSharingNorms ConflictPrevention ConflictResolution PostConflictPeaceBuilding g ImplementingMechanisms

Promotionof Ajust,democratic andharmonious environment environment


Democraticinstitutionsandruleoflaw

Humanrightsandobligations Human rights and obligations Peopletopeoplecontacts

1.StrengtheningTACregime 2.DevelopmentoftheASEANCharter 3.ASEANTreatyofMutualLegalAssistance(MLA) Agreement 4.ASEANExtraditionTreaty 5.DeclarationonConduct(DOC)ofPartiesinthe SouthChinaSea 6.ASEANConventiononCounterTerrorism

ConfidenceBuildingMeasures C fid B ildi M PreventiveMeasures ARFprocess Cooperationonnon traditionalsecurity Cooperation on nontraditional security Respectforterritorialintegrity,sovereignty andunityofmemberscountries and unity of members countries Cooperationreseparatistthreats

ASEANearlywarningsystem to prevent occurrence ASEAN early warning system topreventoccurrence andescalationofconflicts ARF Unit within the ASEAN Secretariat ARFUnitwithintheASEANSecretariat EnhancedroleoftheARFChair MovingtheARFintoStage2(PD)andbeyond Moving the ARF into Stage 2 (PD) and beyond

implementationoftheConceptPaperonPreventive Diplomacy p y establishmentofanIntersessional SupportGroupon PreventiveDiplomacy

StrengtheningDisputeSettlement Strengthening Dispute Settlement Mechanism Developingregionalcooperationfor Developing regional cooperation for maintenanceofpeaceandsecurity Developingsupportinginitiatives Developing supporting initiatives ThaiCambodiaBorderConflict2010? ThaiCambodia Border Conflict 2010?

StrengtheningASEANhumanitarian Strengthening ASEAN humanitarian assistance Developingcooperationinpostconflict Developing cooperation in post conflict reconstructionandrehabilitationinaffected areas Establishingamechanismtomobilise necessaryresourcesforpostconflictpeace f fli building

A group of states

attained a sense of community or collective identity adopted formal or informal institutions and practices become integrated hold dependable expectations of peaceful dependable change rule out the use of force to solve disputes

ASEAN, the ARF and Prospects p for an ASEAN Community Part P t2


Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer Presentation to Security Studies (Regional) Australian Command and Staff College October 18, 2011

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