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Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer Presentation to Security Studies (Regional) Australian Command and Staff College October 18, 2011
China EuropeanUnion Japan SouthKorea NewZealand New Zealand PNG Russia UnitedStates Laos L
Myanmar y Cambodia Mongolia NorthKorea India Pakistan TimorLeste Timor Leste Bangladesh SriLanka S iL k
tofosterconstructivedialogueand to foster constr cti e dialog e and consultation onpoliticalandsecurity issuesofcommoninterestand i f i t t d concern;and tomakesignificantcontributionsto effortstowardsconfidencebuilding andpreventivediplomacy intheAsia Pacificregion.
novoting no voting
Nonbinding
pp y, gp Theapproachshallbeevolutionary,takingplace inthreebroadstages,namely
TheARFprocessisnowatStageI,andshall The ARF process is now at Stage I and shall continuetodiscussmeansofimplementing confidencebuilding. StageII,particularlywherethesubjectmatter overlap,canproceedintandem withStageI.
p/ g InterSessional Groups/Meetings
Mandates renewed annually Cochaired by ASEAN & NonASEAN
199597 ISM on Search and Rescue 199597 ISM on Peacekeeping k 199599 ISM on Disaster Relief
resumed 2004
1995presentISGonConfidence BuildingMeasures 2002 presentISMonCounter 2002present ISM on Counter Terrorism&TransnationalCrime 2009presentISMonMaritime 2009 present ISM on Maritime Security 2009presentISMonNon 2009 t ISM N Proliferation
ExplorationofRegionalArmsRegister Regionalsecuritystudiescentre Regional security studies centre Maritimeinformationdatabase CooperativeapproachestoSLOCs Mobilizationofdisasterreliefassistance Mobilization of disaster relief assistance
Tohelppreventdisputesandconflictsfrom g p y arisingbetweenStatesthatcouldpotentially poseathreattoregionalpeaceandstability; Tohelppreventsuchdisputesandconflicts To help prevent such disputes and conflicts fromescalatingintoarmedconfrontation;and Tohelpminimizetheimpactofsuchdisputes To help minimize the impact of such disputes andconflictsontheregion.
EnhancedroleoftheARFChair Enhanced role of the ARF Chair ARFRegistersofExperts/Eminent Persons, AnnualSecurityOutlook and Voluntarybackgroundbriefingon regionalsecurityissues eg o a secu ty ssues
Myanmar
UN
ASEAN
consensus,noninterference,pacecomfortableto consensus non interference pace comfortable to all Peacefulsettlementofdifferences Peaceful settlement of differences
Greaterparticipationbydefenseand militaryofficials
ARFISMsandISGs
Prioritycooperationinfightagainst internationalterrorismandtransnational crime Supportfornonproliferation,armscontrol, disarmamentefforts disarmament efforts Preventivediplomacytentativesteps Butroleinconflictresolutionunlikely B t l i fli t l ti lik l
NorthKoreanuclearissues
15th ARF(2008)endorsesARFReviewPaper ARF (2008) endorses ARF Review Paper SeniorOfficialsdirectedtodrawupPreventative DiplomacyWorkPlan
prioritytonontraditionalsecuritychallenges ExplicitPDmeasurestopromotepeaceful cooperationandpreventdisputesandtensionsfrom cooperation and prevent disputes and tensions from escalatingintoarmedconflict
Phase2istoaccompanythedevelopmentofthe ASEANPoliticalSecurityCommunity
Good offices, fact finding, mediation offices finding Enhanced role of the ARF Chair Troika T ik past, present and f d future ARF Chairs Friends of the Chair ARF Experts and Eminent Persons p ASEAN Secretariat to assist - ARF Unit
ConfidenceBuildingMeasures C fid B ildi M PreventiveMeasures ARFprocess Cooperationonnon traditionalsecurity Cooperation on nontraditional security Respectforterritorialintegrity,sovereignty andunityofmemberscountries and unity of members countries Cooperationreseparatistthreats
ASEANearlywarningsystem to prevent occurrence ASEAN early warning system topreventoccurrence andescalationofconflicts ARF Unit within the ASEAN Secretariat ARFUnitwithintheASEANSecretariat EnhancedroleoftheARFChair MovingtheARFintoStage2(PD)andbeyond Moving the ARF into Stage 2 (PD) and beyond
StrengtheningDisputeSettlement Strengthening Dispute Settlement Mechanism Developingregionalcooperationfor Developing regional cooperation for maintenanceofpeaceandsecurity Developingsupportinginitiatives Developing supporting initiatives ThaiCambodiaBorderConflict2010? ThaiCambodia Border Conflict 2010?
StrengtheningASEANhumanitarian Strengthening ASEAN humanitarian assistance Developingcooperationinpostconflict Developing cooperation in post conflict reconstructionandrehabilitationinaffected areas Establishingamechanismtomobilise necessaryresourcesforpostconflictpeace f fli building
A group of states
attained a sense of community or collective identity adopted formal or informal institutions and practices become integrated hold dependable expectations of peaceful dependable change rule out the use of force to solve disputes