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(a) Only (I) above (b) Only (II) above (c) Only (III) above
(d) Both (I) and (II) above (e) Both (II) and (III) above.
< Answer
24. If two options are bought at two extreme prices, and two options are sold at two intermediate prices, it >
is known as
(a) Bullish spread (b) Ratio spread (c) Box spread
(d) Condor spread (e) Gamma spread.
< Answer
25. Which of the following statements does not indicate the hedge effectiveness? >
(a) If the principal amount and the notional amount of the swap match
(b) If the fair value of the swap is zero in the beginning of the transaction
(c) If the net settlements under the swap are computed on each settlement date in the same way as
they are calculated on an interest-bearing instrument
(d) If there is prepayment facility in the financial instrument
(e) If there is no cap or floor on the variable interest rate of the swap.
< Answer
26. VaR measures should be supplemented by portfolio stress-testing because >
(a) VaR measures does not indicate how large the losses can be
(b) Stress-testing provides a minimum loss level
(c) VaR measures are correct only at 95% confidence interval
(d) Stress-testing scenarios incorporate reasonably probable events
(e) It performs effective backtesting too.
< Answer
27. As per FAS-133 which of the following embedded derivatives is not accounted for separately? >
(a) Term extending options having no reset of interest rates
(b) Non-leveraged inflation indexed payments
(c) Equity indexed interest payments
(d) Commodity indexed interest payments
(e) Convertible debt qualifying as derivative instrument.
< Answer
28. If a day’s temperature is 55º F, then heating degree days is >
(a) –10 (b) –5 (c) 0 (d) 5 (e) 10.
< Answer
29. The US T-bill futures index is 96.2. The yield on holding the bill till maturity of 90 days will be >
(a) 3.72% (b) 3.80% (c) 3.84% (d) 3.96% (e) 4.02%.
< Answer
30. Which of the following losses is excluded from fire insurance policy? >
(a) Loss due to lightning
(b) Loss due to fire resulting from explosion
(c) Loss due to fire fighting activities
(d) Loss due to explosion of boiler used for domestic purposes
(e) Loss by theft during the fires.
END OF SECTION A
Section B : Problems (50 Marks)
• This section consists of questions with serial number 1 – 6.
• Answer all questions.
• Marks are indicated against each question.
• Detailed workings should form part of your answer.
• Do not spend more than 110 - 120 minutes on Section B.
1. In January 2005, the T-bill futures on the IMM are trading at the following prices:
March futures : 98.25
June futures : 97.95
A speculator is expecting that the yield curve is about to become steeper. The speculator has no particular views
about the level of interest rates, however, he wishes to profit from this view.
You are required to show how the speculator can profit from this view? Under what circumstances will he make
loss?
(8 marks) < Answer >
2. The stock of a company is currently quoted in the market at Rs.150. The price of the stock is expected to go up or
down by 10% in next one year and by 15% in the second year. The risk-free interest rate in the economy is 6%.
Required:
Using two-step Binomial Model, find out the price of a 2-year American put option on the company’s stock with
strike price of Rs.175.
(8 marks) < Answer >
3. A firm in Denmark exports dairy products. On June 15 2004, an order worth $ 5 million to a US super store chain
was shipped. The payment was due after 3 months from the day of shipment. The spot DKr/$ was 6.1569 and the 3
month forward rate was 6.1625 at that time. The firm considered hedging the exposure through futures contract.
Since futures contract for Danish Kroner was not available, it considered either futures on Swiss Franc or Swedish
Kroner on IMM as both the currencies are closely related to Danish Kroner.
The spot SFr/$ rate was 1.2743 and September SFr futures were trading at $0.7875. The spot SKr/$ rate was
7.5833 and September SKr futures were trading at $0.13126 at that time.
On September 15, 2004, dollar was priced in the spot market as at SFr 1.2678, SKr 7.6166 and DKr 6.1602. In the
futures market September SFr future was priced $ 0.7891 and September SKr futures was priced at $ 0.13133.
You are required to find out which hedging strategy would have been better for the Danish firm.
(Standard size of SFr and SKr futures are 125,000 each).
(8 marks) < Answer >
4. The current ¥/$ spot rate is 112.00. A speculator believes that in the next three months yen will fluctuate
significantly against dollar, but he is not sure of the direction of the movement. The following 3-month European
put options on yen are traded in the market:
Strike Price Premium
$0.0085 $0.00006
$0.0089 $0.00020
$0.0093 $0.00050 You
are required to suggest the speculator a spread strategy using all the above options so that the speculator is
exposed to a limited loss. Also, prepare the payoff profile of the strategy showing maximum possible profit,
maximum possible loss and break-even point(s), if spot rate after 3 months ranges between $0.0082 – $0.0096.
(7 marks) < Answer >
5. A corporation enters into a $10 million notional principal interest rate swap. The swap calls for a corporation to
pay fixed rate and receive floating rate on LIBOR. The payment will be made every 90 days for one year and will
be based on the adjustment factor 90/360. The term structure of LIBOR when the swap is initiated is as follows:
END OF SECTION B
7. a. What will happen in the options market if the price of an American call is less than the value Max (0, S – E)?
Will your answer differ if the options are European? Explain.
b. Call prices are directly related to the stock’s volatility, yet higher volatility means stock prices can go lower.
How will you resolve this apparent paradox?
(5 + 5 = 10 marks) < Answer >
8. ‘The list of pure risks suffices to say that doing anything in life involves risk’. Explain the various types of pure
risks.
(10 marks) < Answer >
END OF SECTION C
Suggested Answers
Financial Risk Management – I (231) : April 2005
Section A : Basic Concepts
1. Answer : (d) < TOP >
Reason : Loss control measures are used in respect of risks which cannot be avoided. These risks might have
been assumed either voluntarily or because they could be avoided. The objective of these measures is
either to prevent a loss or to reduce the probability of loss. Insurance, for example, is a loss control
measure. Introduction to systems and procedures, internal or external audit help in controlling the
losses. Raising funds through floating rate interest bearing instruments reduces the losses due to
interest rate risk.
2. Answer : (d) < TOP >
Reason : In the Black and Scholes model for call option valuation the term used to compute option probability
of exercise is N(d2).
3. Answer : (d) < TOP >
Reason : The biggest single disadvantage of writing covered calls is opportunity losses if exercise occurs since
the call will be exercised when spot price is more than the strike price. Commissions are not required
for writing call, risk is controlled, margin requirement is not there since the call is covered and also
there is no regulatory hassle for this.
4. Answer : (c) < TOP >
Reason : Selling stock short and simultaneously buying a call is similar to buying a put option.
5. Answer : (c) < TOP >
Reason : The maximum possible gain per share when spot price exceeds strike price of Rs.55 is
(55 – 50 + 2) = Rs.7.
6. Answer : (e) < TOP >
Reason : Buying and selling futures for two different but related commodities is called intercommodity spread.
7. Answer : (d) < TOP >
Reason : In futures contract there is no credit risk as the futures clearing house bears the credit risk.
8. Answer : (d) < TOP >
Reason : A trader going long Treasury bond futures expects long-term interest rates to decline since the index
will be higher then due to fall in interest rate and the trader can sell at a higher price.
9. Answer : (e) < TOP >
Reason : The swap quote indicates the bank will receive floating and pay fixed at (5.50 + 0.23) = 5.73%, and
will pay floating and receive fixed at (5.50 + 0.26) = 5.76%.
10. Answer : (c) < TOP >
Reason : The daily limit of a commodity futures contract is the maximum of price increase or decrease relative
to the settlement price the previous day.
11. Answer : (b) < TOP >
Reason : The intrinsic value of a call option is zero until the market price of the underlying stock reaches the
strike price; after that point, the intrinsic value is computed by subtracting the strike price from the
market price of the stock. At expiration, the option can no longer have a time premium, so its value is
equal to its intrinsic value.
12. Answer : (a) < TOP >
Reason : For an in-the-money call option, as time passes its delta will approach one. All other alternatives are
not correct.
13. Answer : (b) < TOP >
Reason : The primary advantage of futures options is that they permit the adjustment of portfolio risk/return
exposure.
14. Answer : (c) < TOP >
Reason : Knock-in or knock-out options involve discontinuities and are harder to hedge when the spot price is
close to the barrier.
15. Answer : (a) < TOP >
Reason : Bullish put spread is created by selling put with higher strike price and buying put with lower strike
price.
16. Answer : (d) < TOP >
Reason : Paying a fixed rate on the swap is same as the being short a fixed rate note.
17. Answer : (a) < TOP >
Reason : With the same strike price, a short cap and long floor loses money if rates increase, which is
equivalent to a long position in a fixed rate bond.
18. Answer : (e) < TOP >
Reason : Time decay describes the loss of option value, which is greatest for at-the-money option with short
maturities.
19. Answer : (c) < TOP >
Reason : The variance/covariance approach does not take into account second-order curvature effects which is
important for measuring option risk.
20. Answer : (c) < TOP >
Reason : There will be a loss worse than VaR in on average , n = 1% x 100 = 1 day out of 100.
21. Answer : (e) < TOP >
Reason : A person expects the market to decline sharply in the near future. He will want options with negative
delta, positive gamma since when stock price decreases the value of a put which is having negative
delta will increase and for puts, positive gamma means that their delta will become more negative and
move toward –1.00 when the stock price falls.
< TOP >
22. Answer : (e)
Reason : If we are short in a asset, we cover it by buying call, the payoff is similar to long put.
< TOP >
23. Answer : (e)
Reason : A company which is expecting hot days in summer would either buy call option of HDD in winter or
sell CDD indices in summer.
24. Answer : (d) < TOP >
Reason : In a condor spread, two options are bought at two extreme prices, and two options are sold at two
intermediate prices.
25. Answer : (d) < TOP >
Reason : Though specific conditions apply to the hedge type (fair value/cash flow) we can assume that a
hedging relationship between an interest bearing financial instrument and an interest rate swap is
effective if
1. The principal amount and the notional amount of the swap match.
2. The fair value of the swap is zero in the beginning of the transaction.
3. The net settlements under the swap are computed on each settlement date in the same way as
they are calculated on an interest-bearing instrument.
4. There is no prepayment facility in the financial instrument.
5. The terms are typical for both the instruments and they should not invalidate the assumption.
6. The maturity date of the instrument and the expiration date of the swap match.
There is no ceiling or floor on the variable interest rate of the swap.
The time period between re-pricing is frequent enough to assume that the variable rate is a market
rate.
26. Answer : (a) < TOP >
Reason : The goal of stress testing is to identify losses that can go beyond the normal losses measured by VaR.
27. Answer : (b) < TOP >
Reason : Non-leveraged inflation indexed payments are not accounted separately under FASB - 133.
28. Answer : (e) < TOP >
= 10.
29. Answer : (c) < TOP >
90
1 - 0.038 x 360
Reason : Price of T-bill = $1,000,000 = $990,500
1, 000, 000 990, 500 360
990, 500 90
Yield = = 3.84%.
30. Answer : (e) < TOP >
Reason : Loss by theft during the fire is not included in the fire insurance policy.
Section B : Problems
1. Rates of T-bill futures in January :
March 98.25
June 97.95
If the dealer expects that the yield curve will become steeper it means that spread between the near and far end
contract will widen, i.e. Longer term interest rates will rise more than the shorter term interest rates. Hence the
speculator will buy a near end contract and sell a far end contract i.e. buying a spread. He buys March contract and
sells June contract. Assume in February the new rates are as under:
Scenario I II
March 98.35 98.10
June 98.00 97.75 If the speculator closes his
position
I. Gain on March contract (98.35 – 98.25) × 100 × 25 = $ 250
Loss on June contract (98.00 – 97.95) × 100 × 25 = $ 125
-------
Net gain $ 125
-------
II. Loss on March contract (98.25 – 98.10) x 100 x 25 = $ 375
Gain on June contract (97.95 – 97.95) x 100 x 25 = $ 500
-------
Net gain $ 125
-------
The speculator gains from his expectations that the yield curve becomes steeper under both the scenarios of
increasing interest rates and decreasing interest rates.
The speculator can make loss with this strategy if yield curve become downward sloping i.e. if the fall in long term
interest rate is more than the fall in short term interest rate.
< TOP >
2. Current stock price = Rs.150
Price after first year = ±
10%
Price after second year = ± 15%
Risk-free rate = 6%
The situation can be represented in the following way:
The value of American put option at node D, E, F and G will be equal to the value of European put option on these
nodes.
Value at node D : as put is out-of-money, so value is zero
Value at node E: 175 – 140.25 = 34.75
Value at node F : 175 – 155.25 = 19.75
Value at node G : 175 – 114.75 = 60.25
1.06 − 0.85
1.15 − 0.85
Probability of price increase in second year, P2 = = 0.70
Probability of price decrease = 1 – P2 = 0.3
Using single-period model, the value of put at node B is
Pu p 2 + Pd (1 − p 2 )
R
P =
0 ×0.70 + 34.75 ×0.30
1.06
= = 9.83
At node B, pay-off from early exercise is Rs.10, which is more than the value calculated as per single-period
model. So value of put at node B is 10.
The value of put at node C is
19.75 ×0.70 +60.25 ×0.30
1.06
P = = 30.09.
Pay-off from early exercise is 40, whereas single-period model gives a value of 30.09 which is lower, so value of
put will be 40.
1.06 − 0.90
1.10 − 0.90
Probability of price increase in first year, p1 = = 0.80.
Probability of price decrease = 1 – p1 = 0.20.
The value of put at mode A,
10 ×0.80 + 40 ×0.20
1.06
P = = 15.09.
Whereas the value due to early exercise is Rs.25 which is more than the value given by single period model.
Hence, the value of two year American put option is Rs.25.
< TOP >
3. Hedging through SFr futures
As the customer had a receivable in $, he would go long in SFr futures as it amounts to go short in USD i.e. buy
SFr futures
Standard size of SFr future is 125,000.
5, 000, 000
=
125, 000 × 0.7875
The number of SFr futures contracts to be bought = 50.79365079 = 51.
Gain from SFr futures is = (0.7891 - 0.7875) x 51 x 125,000 = $10,200.00
Gain from SFr futures in DKr = 10,200 x 6.1602 = 62,834.04
Inflow in the spot market = 5,000,000 x 6.1602 = DKr 30,801,000
Total inflow = DKr 30,863,834.04
Hedging through SKr futures
Here also as the customer had a receivable in $, he would bought SKr futures.
Standard size of SKr future is 125,000.
5, 000, 000
=
125, 000 × 0.13126
The number of SKr futures contracts to be bought = 304.7386866 = 305.
Gain from SKr futures is = (0.13133 - 0.13126) x 305 x 125,000 = $2,668.75
Gain from SKr futures in DKr =2,668.75 x 6.1602 = DKr 16,440.03
Inflow in the spot market = 5,000,000 x 6.1602 = DKr 30,801,000
Total inflow = DKr 30,817,440.03
So hedging through SFr futures would have given better result since inflow is more there.
< TOP >
4. Appropriate strategy is short butterfly spread. Here, the investor should sell puts at 0.0085 and 0.0093 and buy 2
puts at 0.0089.
Initial inflow = 0.00006 + 0.00050 - 2 x 0.00020 = 0.00016.
Spot Short Long Short Initial Net Inflow/
P = 0.0085 P = 0.0089 P = 0.0093 Inflow Outflow
0.0082 -0.0003 0.0014 -0.0011 0.00016 0.00016
0.0083 -0.0002 0.0012 -0.001 0.00016 0.00016
0.0084 -0.0001 0.0010 -0.0009 0.00016 0.00016
0.0085 0 0.0008 -0.0008 0.00016 0.00016
0.0086 0 0.0006 -0.0007 0.00016 0.00006
0.0087 0 0.0004 -0.0006 0.00016 -0.00004
0.0088 0 0.0002 -0.0005 0.00016 -0.00014
0.0089 0 0 -0.0004 0.00016 -0.00024
0.0090 0 0 -0.0003 0.00016 -0.00014
0.0091 0 0 -0.0002 0.00016 -0.00004
0.0092 0 0 -0.0001 0.00016 0.00006
0.0093 0 0 0 0.00016 0.00016
0.0094 0 0 0 0.00016 0.00016
0.0095 0 0 0 0.00016 0.00016
0.0096 0 0 0 0.00016 0.00016
Max. Profit =
$ 0.00016
Max. Loss = $ 0.00024
Break - even points are $ 0.00866 and $ 0.00914.
< TOP >
5. a. Let the fixed rate to be received by the bank be ‘R’, and the notional principal be ‘P’.
At the first payment date, the fixed payment is = P ´ R ´ (90/360)
The present value of the fixed leg we can get by multiplying (P ´ R) by the discounting factor we can get
from the LIBOR term structure.
Term Rate Discounting factor
90 days 7.00% 1/(1 + .07(90/360)) = 0.9828
180 days 7.25% 1/(1 + .0725(180/360)) = 0.9650
270 days 7.45% 1/(1 + .0745(270/360)) = 0.9471
360 days 7.55% 1/(1 + .0755(360/360)) = 0.9298
The present
value of fixed leg = P ´ R ´ 0.25 (0.9828 + 0.9650 + 0.9471 + 0.9298) = P ´ R ´ 0.9562
We know that on the date when interest rate is reset, the bond sells at par value. Hence, at time 0, the
present value of floating rate payments is the notional principal, P. But, given that there is no principal
payment the present value of principal repayment to be subtracted.
So, present value of floating payments is = P - P ´ 0.9298 = P ´ 0.0702
Now value of the swap at inception should be zero, hence we will equate present value of fixed payments
and present value of floating payments.
P ´ R ´ 0.9562 = P ´ 0.0702 or, R = 7.34%
b. The first net payment is based on a fixed rate of 7.34 percent and a floating rate of 7 percent:
Fixed payment: $10,000,000(.0734)(90/360) = $183,500
Floating payment: $10,000,000(.07)(90/360) = $175,000
The net is that the party paying fixed makes a payment of $8,500.
< TOP >
7. a. This would create an arbitrage opportunity. The call would be purchased and immediately exercised. For
example, suppose S0 = 44, X = 40, and the call price is Rs.3. Then an investor would buy the call and
immediately exercise it. This would cost Rs.3 for the call and Rs.40 for the stock. Then the stock would be
immediately sold for Rs.44, netting a risk-free profit of Rs.1. In other words, the investor could obtain an
Rs.44 stock for Rs.43. Since everyone would do this, it would drive the price of the call up to at least Rs.4.
If the call were European, however, immediate exercise would not be possible (unless, of course, it was the
expiration day), so the European call could technically sell for less than the intrinsic value of the American
call. We saw, though, that the European call has a lower bound of the stock price minus the present value of
the exercise price (assuming no dividends). Since this is greater than the intrinsic value, the European call
would sell for more than the intrinsic value. Then at expiration, it would sell for the intrinsic value.
b. The paradox is resolved by recalling that if the option expires out-of-the-money, it does not matter how far
out-of-the-money it is. The loss to the option holder is limited to the premium paid. For example, suppose the
stock price is Rs.24, the exercise price is Rs.20, and the call price is Rs.6. Higher volatility increases the
chance of greater gains to the holder of the call. It also increases the chance of a larger stock price decrease.
If, however, the stock price does end up below Rs.20, the investor's loss is the same regardless of whether the
stock price at expiration is Rs.19 or Rs.1. If the stock were purchased instead of the call, the loss would
obviously be greater if the stock price went to Rs.1 than if it went to Rs.19. For this reason, holders of stocks
dislike volatility, while holders of calls like volatility. A similar argument applies to puts.
< TOP >