INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE

WMO UNEP

Climate Change 2007:

Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Working Group II Contribution to the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Fourth Assessment Report

Summary for Policymakers

This Summary for Policymakers was formally approved

at the 8th Session of Working Group II of the IPCC,
Brussels, April 2007

Corrections made as of 13 April 2007.

Note: text, table and figures given here are final but subject to checking and copy-
editing and editorial adjustments to figures

Drafting Authors:
Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg
Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses
Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field,
Andreas Fischlin, B. Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin
Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein,
Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José
Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José
Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse,
Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia
Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone,
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong,
Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

IPCC Secretariat, c/o WMO, 7bis, Avenue de la Paix, C.P. No. 2300, 1211 Geneva 2, SWITZERLAND
Phone: +41 22 730 8208/8254/8284 Fax: +41 22 730 8025/8013
E-mail: IPCC-Sec@wmo.int Website: http://www.ipcc.ch
Summary for Policymakers IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report

A. Introduction
This Summary sets out the key policy-relevant findings of the Fourth Assessment of Working Group
II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The Assessment is of current scientific understanding of impacts of climate change on natural,

managed and human systems, the capacity of these systems to adapt and their vulnerability1. It builds
upon past IPCC assessments and incorporates new knowledge gained since the Third Assessment.

Statements in this Summary are based on chapters in the Assessment and principal sources are given at
the end of each paragraph2.

B. Current knowledge about observed impacts of climate change

on the natural and human environment
A full consideration of observed climate change is provided in the Working Group I Fourth
Assessment. This part of the Working Group II Summary concerns the relationship between observed
climate change and recent observed changes in the natural and human environment.

The statements presented here are based largely on data sets that cover the period since 1970. The
number of studies of observed trends in the physical and biological environment and their relationship
to regional climate changes has increased greatly since the Third Assessment in 2001. The quality of
the data sets has also improved. There is, however, a notable lack of geographic balance in data and
literature on observed changes, with marked scarcity in developing countries.

Recent studies have allowed a broader and more confident assessment of the relationship between
observed warming and impacts than was made in the Third Assessment. That Assessment concluded
that “there is high confidence3 that recent regional changes in temperature have had discernible
impacts on many physical and biological systems”.

From the current Assessment we conclude the following.

Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural
systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature
increases.

With regard to changes in snow, ice and frozen ground (including permafrost)4, there is high
confidence that natural systems are affected. Examples are:
• enlargement and increased numbers of glacial lakes [1.3];
• increasing ground instability in permafrost regions, and rock avalanches in mountain regions
[1.3];
• changes in some Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems, including those in sea-ice biomes, and also
predators high in the food chain [1.3, 4.4, 15.4].

1
For definitions, see Endbox 1.
2
Sources to statements are given in square brackets. For example, [3.3] refers to Chapter 3, Section 3. In the sourcing, F =
Figure, T = Table, B = Box and ES = Executive Summary.
3
See Endbox 2.
4
See Working Group I Fourth Assessment.

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Based on growing evidence, there is high confidence that the following effects on hydrological
systems are occurring:
• increased run-off and earlier spring peak discharge in many glacier- and snow-fed rivers [1.3];
• warming of lakes and rivers in many regions, with effects on thermal structure and water
quality [1.3].

There is very high confidence, based on more evidence from a wider range of species, that recent
warming is strongly affecting terrestrial biological systems, including such changes as:
• earlier timing of spring events, such as leaf-unfolding, bird migration and egg-laying [1.3];
• poleward and upward shifts in ranges in plant and animal species [1.3, 8.2, 14.2].

Based on satellite observations since the early 1980s, there is high confidence that there has been a
trend in many regions towards earlier ‘greening’5 of vegetation in the spring linked to longer thermal
growing seasons due to recent warming [1.3, 14.2].

There is high confidence, based on substantial new evidence, that observed changes in marine and
freshwater biological systems are associated with rising water temperatures, as well as related changes
in ice cover, salinity, oxygen levels and circulation [1.3]. These include:
• shifts in ranges and changes in algal, plankton and fish abundance in high-latitude oceans
[1.3];
• increases in algal and zooplankton abundance in high-latitude and high-altitude lakes [1.3];
• range changes and earlier migrations of fish in rivers [1.3].

The uptake of anthropogenic carbon since 1750 has led to the ocean becoming more acidic with an
average decrease in pH of 0.1 units [IPCC Working Group I Fourth Assessment]. However, the
effects of observed ocean acidification on the marine biosphere are as yet undocumented [1.3].

A global assessment of data since 1970 has shown it is likely6 that anthropogenic
warming has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems.

Much more evidence has accumulated over the past five years to indicate that changes in many
physical and biological systems are linked to anthropogenic warming. There are four sets of evidence
which, taken together, support this conclusion:
1. The Working Group I Fourth Assessment concluded that most of the observed increase in the
globally averaged temperature since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed
increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
2. Of the more than 29,000 observational data series7, from 75 studies, that show significant
change in many physical and biological systems, more than 89% are consistent with the
direction of change expected as a response to warming (Figure SPM-1) [1.4].
3. A global synthesis of studies in this Assessment strongly demonstrates that the spatial
agreement between regions of significant warming across the globe and the locations of
significant observed changes in many systems consistent with warming is very unlikely to be
due solely to natural variability of temperatures or natural variability of the systems (Figure
SPM-1) [1.4].

5
Measured by the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index, which is a relative measure of the amount of green vegetation in
an area based on satellite images.
6
See Endbox 2.
7
A subset of about 29,000 data series was selected from about 80,000 data series from 577 studies. These met the following
criteria: (1) Ending in 1990 or later; (2) spanning a period of at least 20 years; and (3) showing a significant change in either
direction, as assessed in individual studies.

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4. Finally, there have been several modelling studies that have linked responses in some physical
and biological systems to anthropogenic warming by comparing observed responses in these
systems with modelled responses in which the natural forcings (solar activity and volcanoes)
and anthropogenic forcings (greenhouse gases and aerosols) are explicitly separated. Models
with combined natural and anthropogenic forcings simulate observed responses significantly
better than models with natural forcing only [1.4].

Limitations and gaps prevent more complete attribution of the causes of observed system responses to
anthropogenic warming. First, the available analyses are limited in the number of systems and
locations considered. Second, natural temperature variability is larger at the regional than the global
scale, thus affecting identification of changes due to external forcing. Finally, at the regional scale
other factors (such as land-use change, pollution, and invasive species) are influential [1.4].

Nevertheless, the consistency between observed and modelled changes in several studies and the
spatial agreement between significant regional warming and consistent impacts at the global scale is
sufficient to conclude with high confidence that anthropogenic warming over the last three decades
has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems [1.4].

Other effects of regional climate changes on natural and human environments are
emerging, although many are difficult to discern due to adaptation and non-climatic
drivers.

Effects of temperature increases have been documented in the following (medium confidence):
• effects on agricultural and forestry management at Northern Hemisphere higher latitudes,
such as earlier spring planting of crops, and alterations in disturbance regimes of forests due to
fires and pests [1.3];
• some aspects of human health, such as heat-related mortality in Europe, infectious disease
vectors in some areas, and allergenic pollen in Northern Hemisphere high and mid-latitudes
[1.3, 8.2, 8.ES];
• some human activities in the Arctic (e.g., hunting and travel over snow and ice) and in lower-
elevation alpine areas (such as mountain sports) [1.3].

Recent climate changes and climate variations are beginning to have effects on many other natural and
human systems. However, based on the published literature, the impacts have not yet become
established trends. Examples include:
• Settlements in mountain regions are at enhanced risk to glacier lake outburst floods caused by
melting glaciers. Governmental institutions in some places have begun to respond by building
dams and drainage works [1.3].
• In the Sahelian region of Africa, warmer and drier conditions have led to a reduced length of
growing season with detrimental effects on crops. In southern Africa, longer dry seasons and
more uncertain rainfall are prompting adaptation measures [1.3].
• Sea-level rise and human development are together contributing to losses of coastal wetlands
and mangroves and increasing damage from coastal flooding in many areas [1.3].

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Changes in physical and biological systems and

surface temperature 1970-2004

Figure SPM-1. Locations of significant changes in observations of physical systems (snow, ice and
frozen ground; hydrology; and coastal processes) and biological systems (terrestrial, marine, and
freshwater biological systems), are shown together with surface air temperature changes over the
period 1970-2004. A subset of about 29,000 data series was selected from about 80,000 data series
from 577 studies. These met the following criteria: (1) ending in 1990 or later; (2) spanning a period
of at least 20 years; and (3) showing a significant change in either direction, as assessed in individual
studies. These data series are from about 75 studies (of which ~70 are new since the Third
Assessment) and contain about 29,000 data series, of which about 28,000 are from European studies.
White areas do not contain sufficient observational climate data to estimate a temperature trend. The 2
x 2 boxes show the total number of data series with significant changes (top row) and the percentage
of those consistent with warming (bottom row) for (i) continental regions: North America (NAM),
Latin America (LA), Europe (EUR), Africa (AFR), Asia (AS), Australia and New Zealand (ANZ), and
Polar Regions (PR) and (ii) global-scale: Terrestrial (TER), Marine and Freshwater (MFW), and
Global (GLO). The numbers of studies from the seven regional boxes (NAM, …, PR) do not add up to
the global (GLO) totals because numbers from regions except Polar do not include the numbers related
to Marine and Freshwater (MFR) systems [Working Group II Fourth Assessment F1.8, F1.9; Working
Group I Fourth Assessment F3.9b].

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C. Current knowledge about future impacts

The following is a selection of the key findings regarding projected impacts, as well as some findings
on vulnerability and adaptation, in each system, sector and region for the range of (unmitigated)
climate changes projected by the IPCC over this century8 judged to be relevant for people and the
environment9. The impacts frequently reflect projected changes in precipitation and other climate
variables in addition to temperature, sea level and concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The
magnitude and timing of impacts will vary with the amount and timing of climate change and, in some
cases, the capacity to adapt. These issues are discussed further in later sections of the Summary.

More specific information is now available across a wide range of systems and
sectors concerning the nature of future impacts, including for some fields not covered
in previous assessments.

Fresh water resources and their management

By mid-century, annual average river runoff and water availability are projected to increase by 10-
40% at high latitudes and in some wet tropical areas, and decrease by 10-30% over some dry regions
at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics, some of which are presently water stressed areas. In some
places and in particular seasons, changes differ from these annual figures. ** D10 [3.4]

Drought-affected areas will likely increase in extent. Heavy precipitation events, which are very likely
to increase in frequency, will augment flood risk. ** N [Working Group I Fourth Assessment,
Working Group II Fourth Assessment 3.4]

In the course of the century, water supplies stored in glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline,
reducing water availability in regions supplied by meltwater from major mountain ranges, where more
than one-sixth of the world population currently lives. ** N [3.4]

Adaptation procedures and risk management practices for the water sector are being developed in
some countries and regions that have recognised projected hydrological changes with related
uncertainties. *** N [3.6]

Ecosystems

The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded this century by an unprecedented

combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g., flooding, drought, wildfire, insects,
ocean acidification), and other global change drivers (e.g., land use change, pollution, over-
exploitation of resources). ** N [4.1 to 4.6]

8
Temperature changes are expressed as the difference from the period 1980-1999. To express the change relative to the
period 1850-1899, add 0.5oC.
9
Criteria of choice: magnitude and timing of impact, confidence in the assessment, representative coverage of the system,
sector and region.
10
In the Section C text, the following conventions are used:
Relationship to the Third Assessment:
D Further development of a conclusion in the Third Assessment
N New conclusion, not in the Third Assessment
Level of confidence in the whole statement:
*** Very high confidence
** High confidence
* Medium confidence

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Over the course of this century, net carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems is likely to peak before
mid-century and then weaken or even reverse11, thus amplifying climate change. ** N [4.ES, F4.2]

Approximately 20-30% of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of
extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5-2.5oC. * N [4.4, T4.1]

For increases in global average temperature exceeding 1.5-2.5°C and in concomitant atmospheric
carbon dioxide concentrations, there are projected to be major changes in ecosystem structure and
function, species’ ecological interactions, and species’ geographic ranges, with predominantly
negative consequences for biodiversity, and ecosystem goods and services e.g., water and food supply.
** N [4.4]

The progressive acidification of oceans due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide is expected to
have negative impacts on marine shell forming organisms (e.g., corals) and their dependent species. *
N [B4.4, 6.4]

Food, fibre and forest products

Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid- to high latitudes for local mean temperature
increases of up to 1-3°C depending on the crop, and then decrease beyond that in some regions. * D
[5.4]

At lower latitudes, especially seasonally dry and tropical regions, crop productivity is projected to
decrease for even small local temperature increases (1-2°C), which would increase risk of hunger. * D
[5.4]

Globally, the potential for food production is projected to increase with increases in local average
temperature over a range of 1-3°C, but above this it is projected to decrease. * D [5.4, 5.6]

Increases in the frequency of droughts and floods are projected to affect local crop production
negatively, especially in subsistence sectors at low latitudes. ** D [5.4, 5.ES]

Adaptations such as altered cultivars and planting times allow low- and mid- to high-latitude cereal
yields to be maintained at or above baseline yields for modest warming. * N [5.5]

Globally, commercial timber productivity rises modestly with climate change in the short- to medium-
term, with large regional variability around the global trend. * D [5.4]

Regional changes in the distribution and production of particular fish species are expected due to
continued warming, with adverse effects projected for aquaculture and fisheries. ** D [5.4]

Coastal systems and low-lying areas

Coasts are projected to be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosion, due to climate change
and sea-level rise. The effect will be exacerbated by increasing human-induced pressures on coastal
areas. *** D [6.3, 6.4]

Corals are vulnerable to thermal stress and have low adaptive capacity. Increases in sea surface
temperature of about 1-3°C are projected to result in more frequent coral bleaching events and
widespread mortality, unless there is thermal adaptation or acclimatisation by corals. *** D [B6.1, 6.4]

Coastal wetlands including salt marshes and mangroves are projected to be negatively affected by sea-

11
Assuming continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates and other global changes including land use
changes

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level rise especially where they are constrained on their landward side, or starved of sediment. *** D
[6.4]

Many millions more people are projected to be flooded every year due to sea-level rise by the 2080s.
Those densely-populated and low-lying areas where adaptive capacity is relatively low, and which
already face other challenges such as tropical storms or local coastal subsidence, are especially at risk.
The numbers affected will be largest in the mega-deltas of Asia and Africa while small islands are
especially vulnerable. *** D [6.4]

Adaptation for coasts will be more challenging in developing countries than in developed countries,
due to constraints on adaptive capacity. ** D [6.4, 6.5, T6.11]

Industry, settlement and society

Costs and benefits of climate change for industry, settlement, and society will vary widely by location
and scale. In the aggregate, however, net effects will tend to be more negative the larger the change in
climate. ** N [7.4, 7.6]

The most vulnerable industries, settlements and societies are generally those in coastal and river flood
plains, those whose economies are closely linked with climate-sensitive resources, and those in areas
prone to extreme weather events, especially where rapid urbanisation is occurring. ** D [7.1, 7.3, 7.4,
7.5]

Poor communities can be especially vulnerable, in particular those concentrated in high-risk areas.
They tend to have more limited adaptive capacities, and are more dependent on climate-sensitive
resources such as local water and food supplies. ** N [7.2, 7.4, 5.4]

Where extreme weather events become more intense and/or more frequent, the economic and social
costs of those events will increase, and these increases will be substantial in the areas most directly
affected. Climate change impacts spread from directly impacted areas and sectors to other areas and
sectors through extensive and complex linkages. ** N [7.4, 7.5]

Health

Projected climate change-related exposures are likely to affect the health status of millions of people,
particularly those with low adaptive capacity, through:
• increases in malnutrition and consequent disorders, with implications for child growth and
development;
• increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts;
• the increased burden of diarrhoeal disease;
• the increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases due to higher concentrations of ground
level ozone related to climate change; and,
• the altered spatial distribution of some infectious disease vectors. ** D [8.4, 8.ES, 8.2]

Climate change is expected to have some mixed effects, such as the decrease or increase of the range
and transmission potential of malaria in Africa. ** D [8.4]

Studies in temperate areas12 have shown that climate change is projected to bring some benefits, such
as fewer deaths from cold exposure. Overall it is expected that these benefits will be outweighed by
the negative health effects of rising temperatures world-wide, especially in developing countries. ** D
[8.4]

12
Studies mainly in industrialised countries.

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The balance of positive and negative health impacts will vary from one location to another, and will
alter over time as temperatures continue to rise. Critically important will be factors that directly shape
the health of populations such as education, health care, public health prevention and infrastructure
and economic development. *** N [8.3]

More specific information is now available across the regions of the world concerning
the nature of future impacts, including for some places not covered in previous
assessments.

Africa

By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to an increase of water stress
due to climate change. If coupled with increased demand, this will adversely affect livelihoods and
exacerbate water-related problems. ** D [9.4, 3.4, 8.2, 8.4]

Agricultural production, including access to food, in many African countries and regions is projected
to be severely compromised by climate variability and change. The area suitable for agriculture, the
length of growing seasons and yield potential, particularly along the margins of semi-arid and arid
areas, are expected to decrease. This would further adversely affect food security and exacerbate
malnutrition in the continent. In some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by
up to 50% by 2020. ** N [9.2, 9.4, 9.6]

Local food supplies are projected to be negatively affected by decreasing fisheries resources in large
lakes due to rising water temperatures, which may be exacerbated by continued over-fishing. ** N [9.4,
5.4, 8.4]

Towards the end of the 21st century, projected sea-level rise will affect low-lying coastal areas with
large populations. The cost of adaptation could amount to at least 5-10% of Gross Domestic Product
(GDP). Mangroves and coral reefs are projected to be further degraded, with additional consequences
for fisheries and tourism. ** D [9.4]

New studies confirm that Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate variability and
change because of multiple stresses and low adaptive capacity. Some adaptation to current climate
variability is taking place, however, this may be insufficient for future changes in climate. ** N [9.5]

Asia

Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding, and rock avalanches from destabilised
slopes, and to affect water resources within the next two to three decades. This will be followed by
decreased river flows as the glaciers recede. * N [10.2, 10.4]

Freshwater availability in Central, South, East and Southeast Asia, particularly in large river basins, is
projected to decrease due to climate change which, along with population growth and increasing
demand arising from higher standards of living, could adversely affect more than a billion people by
the 2050s. ** N [10.4]

Coastal areas, especially heavily-populated mega-delta regions in South, East and Southeast Asia, will
be at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea and, in some mega-deltas, flooding from the
rivers. ** D [10.4]

Climate change is projected to impinge on sustainable development of most developing countries of

Asia, as it compounds the pressures on natural resources and the environment associated with rapid
urbanisation, industrialisation, and economic development. ** D [10.5]

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It is projected that crop yields could increase up to 20% in East and Southeast Asia while they could
decrease up to 30% in Central and South Asia by the mid-21st century. Taken together and considering
the influence of rapid population growth and urbanisation, the risk of hunger is projected to remain
very high in several developing countries. * N [10.4]

Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily associated with floods and
droughts are expected to rise in East, South and Southeast Asia due to projected changes in the
hydrological cycle associated with global warming. Increases in coastal water temperature would
exacerbate the abundance and/or toxicity of cholera in South Asia. **N [10.4]

Australia and New Zealand

As a result of reduced precipitation and increased evaporation, water security problems are projected
to intensify by 2030 in southern and eastern Australia and, in New Zealand, in Northland and some
eastern regions. ** D [11.4]

Significant loss of biodiversity is projected to occur by 2020 in some ecologically-rich sites including
the Great Barrier Reef and Queensland Wet Tropics. Other sites at risk include Kakadu wetlands,
southwest Australia, sub-Antarctic islands and the alpine areas of both countries. *** D [11.4]

Ongoing coastal development and population growth in areas such as Cairns and Southeast
Queensland (Australia) and Northland to Bay of Plenty (New Zealand), are projected to exacerbate
risks from sea-level rise and increases in the severity and frequency of storms and coastal flooding by
2050. *** D [11.4, 11.6]

Production from agriculture and forestry by 2030 is projected to decline over much of southern and
eastern Australia, and over parts of eastern New Zealand, due to increased drought and fire. However,
in New Zealand, initial benefits are projected in western and southern areas and close to major rivers
due to a longer growing season, less frost and increased rainfall. ** N [11.4]

The region has substantial adaptive capacity due to well-developed economies and scientific and
technical capabilities, but there are considerable constraints to implementation and major challenges
from changes in extreme events. Natural systems have limited adaptive capacity. ** N [11.2, 11.5]

Europe

For the first time, wide ranging impacts of changes in current climate have been documented:
retreating glaciers, longer growing seasons, shift of species ranges, and health impacts due to a heat
wave of unprecedented magnitude. The observed changes described above are consistent with those
projected for future climate change. *** N [12.2, 12.4, 12.6]

Nearly all European regions are anticipated to be negatively affected by some future impacts of
climate change and these will pose challenges to many economic sectors. Climate change is expected
to magnify regional differences in Europe’s natural resources and assets. Negative impacts will
include increased risk of inland flash floods, and more frequent coastal flooding and increased erosion
(due to storminess and sea-level rise). The great majority of organisms and ecosystems will have
difficulties adapting to climate change. Mountainous areas will face glacier retreat, reduced snow
cover and winter tourism, and extensive species losses (in some areas up to 60% under high emission
scenarios by 2080). *** D [12.4]

In Southern Europe, climate change is projected to worsen conditions (high temperatures and drought)
in a region already vulnerable to climate variability, and to reduce water availability, hydropower
potential, summer tourism and, in general, crop productivity. It is also projected to increase health
risks due to heat waves and the frequency of wildfires. ** D [12.2, 12.4, 12.7]

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In Central and Eastern Europe, summer precipitation is projected to decrease, causing higher water
stress. Health risks due to heat waves are projected to increase. Forest productivity is expected to
decline and the frequency of peatland fires to increase. ** D [12.4]

In Northern Europe, climate change is initially projected to bring mixed effects, including some
benefits such as reduced demand for heating, increased crop yields and increased forest growth.
However, as climate change continues, its negative impacts (including more frequent winter floods,
endangered ecosystems and increasing ground instability) are likely to outweigh its benefits. ** D
[12.4]

Adaptation to climate change is likely to benefit from experience gained in reaction to extreme climate
events, by specifically implementing proactive climate change risk management adaptation plans. ***
N [12.5]

Latin America

By mid-century, increases in temperature and associated decreases in soil water are projected to lead
to gradual replacement of tropical forest by savanna in eastern Amazonia. Semi-arid vegetation will
tend to be replaced by arid-land vegetation. There is a risk of significant biodiversity loss through
species extinction in many areas of tropical Latin America. ** D [13.4]

In drier areas, climate change is expected to lead to salinisation and desertification of agricultural land.
Productivity of some important crops is projected to decrease and livestock productivity to decline,
with adverse consequences for food security. In temperate zones soybean yields are projected to
increase. ** N [13.4, 13.7]

Sea-level rise is projected to cause increased risk of flooding in low-lying areas. Increases in sea
surface temperature due to climate change are projected to have adverse effects on Mesoamerican
coral reefs, and cause shifts in the location of south-east Pacific fish stocks. ** N [13.4, 13.7]

Changes in precipitation patterns and the disappearance of glaciers are projected to significantly affect
water availability for human consumption, agriculture and energy generation. ** D [13.4]

Some countries have made efforts to adapt, particularly through conservation of key ecosystems, early
warning systems, risk management in agriculture, strategies for flood drought and coastal management,
and disease surveillance systems. However, the effectiveness of these efforts is outweighed by: lack of
basic information, observation and monitoring systems; lack of capacity building and appropriate
political, institutional and technological frameworks; low income; and settlements in vulnerable areas,
among others. ** D [13.2]

North America

Warming in western mountains is projected to cause decreased snowpack, more winter flooding, and
reduced summer flows, exacerbating competition for over-allocated water resources. *** D [14.4,
B14.2]

Disturbances from pests, diseases, and fire are projected to have increasing impacts on forests, with an
extended period of high fire risk and large increases in area burned. *** N [14.4, B14.1]

Moderate climate change in the early decades of the century is projected to increase aggregate yields
of rain-fed agriculture by 5-20%, but with important variability among regions. Major challenges are
projected for crops that are near the warm end of their suitable range or depend on highly utilised
water resources. ** D [14.4]

Cities that currently experience heat waves are expected to be further challenged by an increased

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number, intensity and duration of heat waves during the course of the century, with potential for
adverse health impacts. Elderly populations are most at risk. *** D [14.4].

Coastal communities and habitats will be increasingly stressed by climate change impacts interacting
with development and pollution. Population growth and the rising value of infrastructure in coastal
areas increase vulnerability to climate variability and future climate change, with losses projected to
increase if the intensity of tropical storms increases. Current adaptation is uneven and readiness for
increased exposure is low. *** N [14.4]

Polar Regions

In the Polar Regions, the main projected biophysical effects are reductions in thickness and extent of
glaciers and ice sheets, and changes in natural ecosystems with detrimental effects on many organisms
including migratory birds, mammals and higher predators. In the Arctic, additional impacts include
reductions in the extent of sea ice and permafrost, increased coastal erosion, and an increase in the
depth of permafrost seasonal thawing. ** D [15.3, 15.4, 15.2]

For Arctic human communities, impacts, particularly resulting from changing snow and ice conditions,
are projected to be mixed. Detrimental impacts would include those on infrastructure and traditional
indigenous ways of life. ** D [15.4]

Beneficial impacts would include reduced heating costs and more navigable northern sea routes. * D
[15.4]

In both polar regions, specific ecosystems and habitats are projected to be vulnerable, as climatic
barriers to species’ invasions are lowered. ** D [15.6, 15.4]

Arctic human communities are already adapting to climate change, but both external and internal
stressors challenge their adaptive capacities. Despite the resilience shown historically by Arctic
indigenous communities, some traditional ways of life are being threatened and substantial
investments are needed to adapt or re-locate physical structures and communities. ** D [15.ES, 15.4,
15.5, 15.7]

Small islands

Small islands, whether located in the tropics or higher latitudes, have characteristics which make them
especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea level rise and extreme events. *** D [16.1,
16.5]

Deterioration in coastal conditions, for example through erosion of beaches and coral bleaching, is
expected to affect local resources, e.g., fisheries, and reduce the value of these destinations for tourism.
** D [16.4]

Sea-level rise is expected to exacerbate inundation, storm surge, erosion and other coastal hazards,
thus threatening vital infrastructure, settlements and facilities that support the livelihood of island
communities. *** D [16.4]

Climate change is projected by the mid-century to reduce water resources in many small islands, e.g.,
in the Caribbean and Pacific, to the point where they become insufficient to meet demand during low
rainfall periods. *** D [16.4]

With higher temperatures, increased invasion by non-native species is expected to occur, particularly
on middle and high-latitude islands. ** N [16.4]

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Magnitudes of impact can now be estimated more systematically for a range of

possible increases in global average temperature.

Since the IPCC Third Assessment, many additional studies, particularly in regions that previously had
been little researched, have enabled a more systematic understanding of how the timing and magnitude
of impacts may be affected by changes in climate and sea level associated with differing amounts and
rates of change in global average temperature.

Examples of this new information are presented in Table SPM-1. Entries have been selected which are
judged to be relevant for people and the environment and for which there is high confidence in the
assessment. All entries of impact are drawn from chapters of the Assessment, where more detailed
information is available.

Depending on circumstances, some of these impacts could be associated with ‘key vulnerabilities’,
based on a number of criteria in the literature (magnitude, timing, persistence/reversibility, the
potential for adaptation, distributional aspects, likelihood and “importance” of the impacts).
Assessment of potential key vulnerabilities is intended to provide information on rates and levels of
climate change to help decision-makers make appropriate responses to the risks of climate change
[19.ES, 19.1].

The ‘reasons for concern’ identified in the Third Assessment remain a viable framework for
considering key vulnerabilities. Recent research has updated some of the findings from the Third
Assessment [19.3].

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Key impacts as a function of increasing

global average temperature change
(Impacts will vary by extent of adaptation,
rate of temperature change, and socio-economic pathway)

Table SPM-1. Illustrative examples of global impacts projected for climate changes (and sea-level
and atmospheric carbon dioxide where relevant) associated with different amounts of increase in
global average surface temperature in the 21st century [T20.7]. The black lines link impacts, dotted
arrows indicate impacts continuing with increasing temperature. Entries are placed so that the left
hand side of text indicates approximate onset of a given impact. Quantitative entries for water scarcity
and flooding represent the additional impacts of climate change relative to the conditions projected
across the range of Special Report on Scenarios (SRES) scenarios A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 (see Endbox
3). Adaptation to climate change is not included in these estimations. All entries are from published
studies recorded in the chapters of the Assessment. Sources are given in the right hand column of the
Table. Confidence levels for all statements are high.

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Impacts due to altered frequencies and intensities of extreme weather, climate, and
sea level events are very likely to change.

Since the IPCC Third Assessment, confidence has increased that some weather events and extremes
will become more frequent, more widespread and/or more intense during the 21st century; and more is
known about the potential effects of such changes. A selection of these is presented in Table SPM-2.

Phenomenona Likelihood of
and direction future trends Examples of major projected impacts by sector
of trend based on
projections
for 21st
century
using SRES
scenarios
Agriculture, Water Human health Industry,
forestry and resources [3.4] [8.2] settlement and
ecosystems society [7.4]
[4.4, 5.4]
Over most land Virtually Increased yields Effects on water Reduced Reduced energy
areas, warmer certainb in colder resources human demand for
and fewer cold environments; relying on snow mortality from heating; increased
days and nights, decreased melt; effects on decreased demand for
warmer and more yields in warmer some water cold exposure cooling; declining
frequent hot days environments; supply air quality in cities;
and nights increased insect reduced disruption
outbreaks to transport due to
snow, ice; effects
on winter tourism
Warm spells/heat Very likely Reduced yields Increased water Increased risk Reduction in
waves. in warmer demand; water of heat-related quality of life for
Frequency regions due to quality mortality, people in warm
increases over heat stress; wild problems, e.g., especially for areas without
most land areas fire danger algal blooms the elderly, appropriate
increase chronically housing; impacts
sick, very on elderly, very
young and young and poor.
socially-
isolated
Heavy Very likely Damage to Adverse effects Increased risk Disruption of
precipitation crops; soil on quality of of deaths, settlements,
events. erosion, inability surface and injuries, commerce,
Frequency to cultivate land groundwater; infectious, transport and
increases over due to water contamination of respiratory and societies due to
most areas logging of soils water supply; skin diseases flooding; pressures
water scarcity on urban and rural
may be relieved infrastructures;
loss of property
Area affected by Likely Land More Increased risk Water shortages
drought degradation, widespread of food and for settlements,
increases lower water stress water industry and
yields/crop shortage; societies; reduced
damage and increased risk hydropower
failure; of malnutrition; generation
increased increased risk potentials;
livestock deaths; of water- and potential for
increased risk of food-borne population
wildfire diseases migration

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Intense tropical Likely Damage to Power outages Increased risk of Disruption by flood and
cyclone activity crops; windthrow cause deaths, injuries, high winds; withdrawal of
increases (uprooting) of disruption of water- and food- risk coverage in vulnerable
trees; damage to public water borne diseases; areas by private insurers,
coral reefs supply post-traumatic potential for population
stress disorders migrations, loss of
property
Increased Likelyd Salinisation of Decreased Increased risk of Costs of coastal protection
incidence of irrigation water, freshwater deaths and versus costs of land-use
extreme high estuaries and availability due injuries by relocation; potential for
sea level freshwater to saltwater drowning in movement of populations
(excludes systems intrusion floods; migration- and infrastructure; also
tsunamis)c related health see tropical cyclones
effects above
a
See Working Group I Fourth Assessment Table 3.7 for further details regarding definitions
b
Warming of the most extreme days and nights each year
c
Extreme high sea level depends on average sea level and on regional weather systems. It is defined as the
highest 1% of hourly values of observed sea level at a station for a given reference period.
d
In all scenarios, the projected global average sea level at 2100 is higher than in the reference period [Working
Group I Fourth Assessment 10.6]. The effect of changes in regional weather systems on sea level extremes
has not been assessed.

Table SPM-2. Examples of possible impacts of climate change due to changes in extreme weather
and climate events, based on projections to the mid to late 21st century. These do not take into
account any changes or developments in adaptive capacity. Examples of all entries are to be found in
chapters in the full Assessment (see source at top of columns). The first two columns of this table
(shaded yellow) are taken directly from the Working Group I Fourth Assessment (Table SPM-2). The
likelihood estimates in Column 2 relate to the phenomena listed in Column 1. The direction of trend
and likelihood of phenomena are for IPCC SRES projections of climate change.

Some large-scale climate events have the potential to cause very large impacts,
especially after the 21st century.

Very large sea-level rises that would result from widespread deglaciation of Greenland and West
Antarctic ice sheets imply major changes in coastlines and ecosystems, and inundation of low-lying
areas, with greatest effects in river deltas. Relocating populations, economic activity, and
infrastructure would be costly and challenging. There is medium confidence that at least partial
deglaciation of the Greenland ice sheet, and possibly the West Antarctic ice sheet, would occur over a
period of time ranging from centuries to millennia for a global average temperature increase of 1-4°C
(relative to 1990-2000), causing a contribution to sea level rise of 4-6 m or more. The complete
melting of the Greenland ice sheet and the West Antarctic ice sheet would lead to a contribution to
sea-level rise of up to 7 m and about 5 m, respectively [Working Group I Fourth Assessment 6.4, 10.7;
Working Group II Fourth Assessment 19.3].

Based on climate model results, it is very unlikely that the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC)
in the North Atlantic will undergo a large abrupt transition during the 21st century. Slowing of the
MOC this century is very likely, but temperatures over the Atlantic and Europe are projected to
increase nevertheless, due to global warming. Impacts of large-scale and persistent changes in the
MOC are likely to include changes to marine ecosystem productivity, fisheries, ocean carbon dioxide
uptake, oceanic oxygen concentrations and terrestrial vegetation [Working Group I Fourth Assessment
10.3, 10.7; Working Group II Fourth Assessment 12.6, 19.3].

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Impacts of climate change will vary regionally but, aggregated and discounted to the
present, they are very likely to impose net annual costs which will increase over time
as global temperatures increase.

This Assessment makes it clear that the impacts of future climate change will be mixed across regions.
For increases in global mean temperature of less than 1-3oC above 1990 levels, some impacts are
projected to produce benefits in some places and some sectors, and produce costs in other places and
other sectors. It is, however, projected that some low latitude and polar regions will experience net
costs even for small increases in temperature. It is very likely that all regions will experience either
declines in net benefits or increases in net costs for increases in temperature greater than about 2-3°C
[9.ES, 9.5, 10.6, T109, 15.3, 15.ES]. These observations confirm evidence reported in the Third
Assessment that, while developing countries are expected to experience larger percentage losses,
global mean losses could be 1-5% GDP for 4oC of warming [F20.3].

Many estimates of aggregate net economic costs of damages from climate change across the globe (i.e.,
the social cost of carbon (SCC), expressed in terms of future net benefits and costs that are discounted
to the present) are now available. Peer-reviewed estimates of the SCC for 2005 have an average value
of US$43 per tonne of carbon (tC) (i.e., US$12 per tonne of carbon dioxide) but the range around this
mean is large. For example, in a survey of 100 estimates, the values ran from US$-10 per tonne of
carbon (US$-3 per tonne of carbon dioxide) up to US$350/tC (US$95 per tonne of carbon dioxide)
[20.6].

The large ranges of SCC are due in the large part to differences in assumptions regarding climate
sensitivity, response lags, the treatment of risk and equity, economic and non-economic impacts, the
inclusion of potentially catastrophic losses and discount rates. It is very likely that globally-
aggregated figures underestimate the damage costs because they cannot include many non-quantifiable
impacts. Taken as a whole, the range of published evidence indicates that the net damage costs of
climate change are likely to be significant and to increase over time [T20.3, 20.6, F20.4].

It is virtually certain that aggregate estimates of costs mask significant differences in impacts across
sectors, regions, countries, and populations. In some locations and amongst some groups of people
with high exposure, high sensitivity, and/or low adaptive capacity, net costs will be significantly larger
than the global aggregate [20.6, 20.ES, 7.4].

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D. Current knowledge about responding to climate change

Some adaptation is occurring now, to observed and projected future climate change,
but on a limited basis.

There is growing evidence since the IPCC Third Assessment of human activity to adapt to observed
and anticipated climate change. For example, climate change is considered in the design of
infrastructure projects such as coastal defence in the Maldives and The Netherlands, and the
Confederation Bridge in Canada. Other examples include prevention of glacial lake outburst flooding
in Nepal, and policies and strategies such as water management in Australia and government
responses to heat waves in, for example, some European countries [7.6, 8.2, 8.6, 17.ES, 17.2, 16.5,
11.5].

Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is
already unavoidable due to past emissions.

Past emissions are estimated to involve some unavoidable warming (about a further 0.6°C by the end
of the century relative to 1980-1999) even if atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations remain at
2000 levels (see Working Group I Fourth Assessment). There are some impacts for which adaptation
is the only available and appropriate response. An indication of these impacts can be seen in Table
SPM-1.

A wide array of adaptation options is available, but more extensive adaptation than is
currently occurring is required to reduce vulnerability to future climate change. There
are barriers, limits and costs, but these are not fully understood.

Impacts are expected to increase with increases in global average temperature, as indicated in Table
SPM-1. Although many early impacts of climate change can be effectively addressed through
adaptation, the options for successful adaptation diminish and the associated costs increase with
increasing climate change. At present we do not have a clear picture of the limits to adaptation, or the
cost, partly because effective adaptation measures are highly dependent on specific, geographical and
climate risk factors as well as institutional, political and financial constraints [7.6, 17.2, 17.4].

The array of potential adaptive responses available to human societies is very large, ranging from
purely technological (e.g., sea defences), through behavioural (e.g., altered food and recreational
choices), to managerial (e.g., altered farm practices) and to policy (e.g., planning regulations). While
most technologies and strategies are known and developed in some countries, the assessed literature
does not indicate how effective various options13 are at fully reducing risks, particularly at higher
levels of warming and related impacts, and for vulnerable groups. In addition, there are formidable
environmental, economic, informational, social, attitudinal and behavioural barriers to implementation
of adaptation. For developing countries, availability of resources and building adaptive capacity are
particularly important [see Sections 5 and 6 in Chapters 3-16; also 17.2, 17.4].

Adaptation alone is not expected to cope with all the projected effects of climate change, and
especially not over the long run as most impacts increase in magnitude [Table SPM-1].

13
A table of options is given in the Technical Summary

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Vulnerability to climate change can be exacerbated by the presence of other stresses.

Non-climate stresses can increase vulnerability to climate change by reducing resilience and can also
reduce adaptive capacity because of resource deployment to competing needs. For example, current
stresses on some coral reefs include marine pollution and chemical runoff from agriculture as well as
increases in water temperature and ocean acidification. Vulnerable regions face multiple stresses that
affect their exposure and sensitivity as well as their capacity to adapt. These stresses arise from, for
example, current climate hazards, poverty and unequal access to resources, food insecurity, trends in
economic globalisation, conflict, and incidence of disease such as HIV/AIDS [7.4, 8.3, 17.3, 20.3].
Adaptation measures are seldom undertaken in response to climate change alone but can be integrated
within, for example, water resource management, coastal defence, and risk reduction strategies [17.2,
17.5].

Future vulnerability depends not only on climate change but also on development
pathway.

An important advance since the IPCC Third Assessment has been the completion of impacts studies
for a range of different development pathways taking into account not only projected climate change
but also projected social and economic changes. Most have been based on characterisations of
population and income level drawn from the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (see
Endbox 3) [2.4].

These studies show that the projected impacts of climate change can vary greatly due to the
development pathway assumed. For example, there may be large differences in regional population,
income and technological development under alternative scenarios, which are often a strong
determinant of the level of vulnerability to climate change [2.4].

To illustrate, in a number of recent studies of global impacts of climate change on food supply, risk of
coastal flooding and water scarcity, the projected number of people affected is considerably greater
under the A2-type scenario of development (characterised by relatively low per capita income and
large population growth) than under other SRES futures [T20.6]. This difference is largely explained,
not by differences in changes of climate, but by differences in vulnerability [T6.6].

Sustainable development14 can reduce vulnerability to climate change, and climate

change could impede nations’ abilities to achieve sustainable development pathways.

Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability to climate change by enhancing adaptive capacity
and increasing resilience. At present, however, few plans for promoting sustainability have explicitly
included either adapting to climate change impacts, or promoting adaptive capacity [20.3].

On the other hand, it is very likely that climate change can slow the pace of progress toward
sustainable development either directly through increased exposure to adverse impact or indirectly
through erosion of the capacity to adapt. This point is clearly demonstrated in the sections of the
sectoral and regional chapters of this report that discuss implications for sustainable development [See
Section 7 in Chapters 3-8, 20.3, 20.7].

The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) are one measure of progress towards sustainable
development. Over the next half-century, climate change could impede achievement of the MDGs
[20.7].

14
The Brundtland Commission definition of sustainable development is used in this Assessment: “development that meets
the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”. The same
definition was used by the IPCC Working Group II Third Assessment and Synthesis Reports.

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Many impacts can be avoided, reduced or delayed by mitigation.

A small number of impact assessments have now been completed for scenarios in which future
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are stabilised. Although these studies do not take full
account of uncertainties in projected climate under stabilisation, they nevertheless provide indications
of damages avoided or vulnerabilities and risks reduced for different amounts of emissions reduction
[2.4, T20.6].

A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can diminish the risks associated
with climate change.

Even the most stringent mitigation efforts cannot avoid further impacts of climate change in the next
few decades, which makes adaptation essential, particularly in addressing near-term impacts.
Unmitigated climate change would, in the long term, be likely to exceed the capacity of natural,
managed and human systems to adapt [20.7].

This suggests the value of a portfolio or mix of strategies that includes mitigation, adaptation,
technological development (to enhance both adaptation and mitigation) and research (on climate
science, impacts, adaptation and mitigation). Such portfolios could combine policies with incentive-
based approaches, and actions at all levels from the individual citizen through to national governments
and international organisations [18.1, 18.5].

One way of increasing adaptive capacity is by introducing the consideration of climate change impacts
in development planning [18.7], for example, by:
• including adaptation measures in land-use planning and infrastructure design [17.2];
• including measures to reduce vulnerability in existing disaster risk reduction strategies [17.2,
20.8].

E. Systematic observing and research needs

Although science to provide policymakers with information about climate change impacts and
adaptation potential has improved since the Third Assessment, it still leaves many important questions
to be answered. The chapters of the Working Group II Fourth Assessment include a number of
judgements about priorities for further observation and research, and this advice should be considered
seriously (a list of these recommendations is given in the Technical Summary Section TS-6).

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Endbox 1. Definitions of key terms

Climate change in IPCC usage refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural
variability or as a result of human activity. This usage differs from that in the Framework Convention
on Climate Change, where climate change refers to a change of climate that is attributed directly or
indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition
to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.

Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability
and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the
consequences.

Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects
of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the
character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its
sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.

This box of key definitions is taken from the Third Assessment and has been subject to prior line by line approval
by the Panel.

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Endbox 2. Communication of Uncertainty in the Working Group II Fourth Assessment

A set of terms to describe uncertainties in current knowledge is common to all parts of the IPCC
Fourth Assessment.

Description of confidence

Authors have assigned a confidence level to the major statements in the Technical Summary on the
basis of their assessment of current knowledge, as follows:

Terminology Degree of confidence in being correct

Very high confidence At least 9 out of 10 chance of being correct
High confidence About 8 out of 10 chance
Medium confidence About 5 out of 10 chance
Low confidence About 2 out of 10 chance
Very low confidence Less than a 1 out of 10 chance

Description of likelihood

Likelihood refers to a probabilistic assessment of some well defined outcome having occurred or
occurring in the future, and may be based on quantitative analysis or an elicitation of expert views. In
the Technical Summary, when authors evaluate the likelihood of certain outcomes, the associated
meanings are:

Terminology Likelihood of the occurrence/ outcome

Virtually certain >99% probability of occurrence
Very likely 90 to 99% probability
Likely 66 to 90% probability
About as likely as not 33 to 66% probability
Unlikely 10 to 33% probability
Very unlikely 1 to 10% probability
Exceptionally unlikely <1% probability

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Endbox 3. The Emission Scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)

A1. The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth,
global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new
and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity
building and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional
differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into three groups that describe
alternative directions of technological change in the energy system. The three A1 groups are
distinguished by their technological emphasis: fossil intensive (A1FI), non fossil energy sources
(A1T), or a balance across all sources (A1B) (where balanced is defined as not relying too heavily on
one particular energy source, on the assumption that similar improvement rates apply to all energy
supply and end use technologies).

A2. The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying
theme is self reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge
very slowly, which results in continuously increasing population. Economic development is primarily
regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change more fragmented and
slower than other storylines.

B1. The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same global
population, that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid
change in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material
intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global
solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without
additional climate initiatives.

B2. The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions
to economic, social and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global
population, at a rate lower than A2, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and
more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines. While the scenario is also
oriented towards environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels.

An illustrative scenario was chosen for each of the six scenario groups A1B, A1FI, A1T, A2, B1 and
B2. All should be considered equally sound.

The SRES scenarios do not include additional climate initiatives, which means that no scenarios are
included that explicitly assume implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change or the emissions targets of the Kyoto Protocol.

This box summarizing the SRES scenarios is taken from the Third Assessment and has been subject to prior line
by line approval by the Panel.

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