DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

02 November, 2011
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

M
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF
Ron William, CMT, MSTA

S-TERM
MULTI-DAY

L-TERM
MULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/ POSITION SHORT 1 Buy limit 3 LONG 3 LONG 3 LONG 3 SHORT 3 Buy limit 3

ENTRY LEVEL 1.3950 1.5840 78.20 0.8600 1.0050 1.0570 122.70

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS

STOP

1.3470 (Entered 01/11/2011) 1.5940/1.6153/1.6400 80.05/82.00/83.30 (Entered 01/11/2011) All three objectives to 0.9000 (Entered 28/10/2011) 1.0270/1.0660/1.0850 (Entered 01/11/2011) 1.0230/1.0010/0.9710 (Entered 01/11/2011) 124.10/126.00/127.32 Await fresh signal. Look to sell higher. Await fresh signal.

1.3840 1.5740 76.50 0.8800 0.9890 1.0750 121.30

USD/CAD AUD/USD GBP/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/GBP

Bijoy Kar, CFA

EUR/CHF GOLD SILVER

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

SHORT 3 SHORT 3

1710 34.1300

1600/1530/1300 (Entered 01/11/2011) 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011)

1760 35.6880

DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES

Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report

Notes:Entriesarein3unitsandobjectivesareat3 separate levelswhere1unitwillbeexited.Whenthefirstobjective(PT1)hasbeenhitthestopwillbemovedtotheentry pointforanearriskfreetrade.Whenthesecondobjective(PT2)hasbeenhitthestopwillbemovedtoPT1lockinginmoreprofit.Allordersarevaliduntilthenextreportis published,or atradingstrategyalertissentbetweenreports. CH-2008 Neuchtel info@migbank.com Switzerland www.migbank.com

MIG BANK / Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01

EUR/USD EUR/USD
EUR/USD (Daily)
BERMUDA TRIANGLE FAILED
BREAKOUTS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

02 November, 2011

Sharp reversal targets 1.3000.

EUR/USD has extended its sharp reversal from key overhead resistance (primarily an important 2 year trend-line). The dramatic move has

BREAKOUT ZONE (1.4000)

confirmed the emotionally charged bull-trap that we had anticipated, which had been driven by recent positive EU News. Key support is now holding at 1.3653 (18th Oct low). A sustained

200-DMA (1.4102)

SHARP REVERSAL AT KEY RESISTANCE TARGETS 1.3000 & 1.2870

confirmation beneath here will unlock further downside scope into 1.3146 (Oct swing low) and that all-important psychological level at 1.3000. Further pressure is also weighing from broad risk-related proxies. The euro

UPTREND (2 YEARS)

currently shares a high correlation of 0.85% with the S&P500 which is now falling sharply from its recent multi-week highs.

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD INDEX
200-DMA (75.74)
EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9% CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%

Inversely, USD Index has turned back higher above its long-term 200-day
USD INDEX (4 YEARS)

MA. The bulls are likely to recapture the recent 6-month highs near 80. Speculative (net long) liquidity flows are holding steady around their recent spike highs (3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely

+27%

+19%

+10%
SO FAR

remain strong and help resume the USDs major bull-run from its historic oversold extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).

BREAKOUT ZONE

DEMARK BUY SIGNAL

SpecialReport:EUR/USDAFallFromGrace?DeclineTargets1.3770/1.3410.

VIDEO

3 STD ABOVE ONE YEAR AVERAGE

MIGBankWebinar:WhytheUSdollarislikelytogainupto30%in612months. MIGBankUSDollarInterviewonBloomberg

TRIGGER (15000)
DEMARK BUY SIGNALS

13

KEY SUPPORT (73.50-73.00)

COT LIQUIDITY

EXTREME NET US $ SHORT POSITIONS

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
SHORT 1: 1.3950, Obj: 1.3470, Stop: 1.3840

USD Index daily, weekly chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 2

GBP/USD

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

02 November, 2011

Higher low sought for a return to 1.6167.

A break back over the 1.6167 high would lead us to remove the strategy below from the report. GBP/USD has found initial support at 1.5890 following the bout of weakness seen from the 200 day moving average. While contained within the 1.5890-1.6167 range a further swing lower remains feasible, towards our target zone near 1.5840, where a higher low is favoured to form. We remain wary of the general range bound nature of this market in the medium-term and note that short-term structure is suggestive of further gains, back towards 1.6167. While above 1.5632 a further leg higher is favoured. GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP However, if this

region fails to contain the current corrective phase, then the bias will turn negative again. GBP/USD has already experienced a large devaluation versus the US Dollar, therefore any strengthening in the US Dollar may not see the full participation of GBP/USD. Instead GBP/USD is favoured to remain stronger than most.

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Buy limit 3 at 1.5840, Objs: 1.5940/1.6153/1.6400, Stop: 1.5740.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 3

USD/JPY
USD/JPY (Daily 1 YEAR)

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

02 November, 2011

POST INTERVENTION RETRACEMENT (PIR I)

USD/JPY intervention favours test of 80.00.

USD/JPYs latest intervention by the BOJ favours a test of that allimportant psychological level at 80.00. This marks the BOJs third time to

QUAKE SHOCK! 83.30

POST G7 MOVE (I) HIGH

officially intervene on the rate this year, after it carved out yet another new post WWII record low at 75.35. Multiple DeMark buy signals were also triggered within the multi-week base pattern which has now broken higher (as had been expected by our
82.00

low volatility measures). The medium/long-term view is more bullish, favouring a sustained move above our initial upside trigger level at 80.00, near 80.24 (post BOJ

POST BOJ MOVE (II) HIGH

80.24
POST BOJ MOVE (III) HIGH

intervention II high). Keep in mind that such a scenario would help reactivate the longer-term technical bias, including prior monthly DeMark exhaustion signals, within the ending diagonal pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle. Only a sustained weekly close below 76.25 will lead to a reassessment of the view and extend temporary weakness into 74.55.
PleaseselectthelinkbelowtosignupforourMIGBankwebinaronUSD/JPY. ThiswillfeatureanupdatetoourpreviousSpecialReport USD/JPYsLongTermStructuralChange(Wednesday,November02nd15:0015:45GMT). WhatdolongtermcyclestellusaboutthefutureofUSDJPY? HowdoeventshocksandCentralBankInterventionsimpactthemarket? SafeHavenFlows:Awaveofchange. HighProbabilityTradingStrategies.

USD/JPY Weekly (2007 2011)

ENDING DIAGONAL PATTERN BREAKOUT TARGET (85-79)

PIR II

MONTHLY DEMARK BUY SIGNAL

DEMARK BUY SIGNAL AFTER NEW POST WWII LOW (75.35)

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
LONG at 78.20, Obj: 80.05/82.00/83.30, Stop: 76.50

USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 426 4

USD/CHF
Meets initial resistance at 0.8960.

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

02 November, 2011

USD/CHF saw a further squeeze higher to test the region close to 0.9000, reaching 0.8960 so far. Scope is seen for a further rise to test the 0.9000 level, however a degree of resistance would be expected there, which may then signal the resumption of a fresh swing to the downside. Although the medium-term view remains bullish a re-test of the region close to 0.8242 is possible ahead of a potential return to 0.9316. Movement in USD/CHF is likely to be affected by the SNB attempting to maintain EUR/CHF above 1.2000. However, back under 0.7712 is required to change the medium-term bullish bias. A push back over 0.9083 is required to open up a return towards the USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP recent high at 0.9316.

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Long 3 at 0.8600, Objs: All three to 0.9000, Stop: 0.8800

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 5

USD/CAD
USD/CAD (Daily)
August High (1.0673)

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

02 November, 2011
USD/CAD (Weekly)

Bulls reverse higher from psychological 1.0000 level.

USD/CADs short-term price activity has turned positive, with the sharp bullish reversal from the psychological 1.0000 level (prior trading range). Positive momentum needs to push above 1.0264 and 1.0400 to rebuild the
200-DMA (0.9815)

CONFIRMATION ABOVE 1.0680 OPENS LARGER RECOVERY

potential major upside reversal higher above the old resistance level at 1.0673 (August high & Congestion zone). Only a sustained close beneath here will unlock bearish setbacks into the long-term 200-day MA at 0.9813 and 0.9726 (31st Aug low). A strong directional confirmation above here will open a much larger

DEMARK BUY SIGNAL

recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the rates ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle.

USD/CAD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

CHF/CAD (Daily)
REVERSAL PATTERN

EUR/CAD is extending above its 200-day MA, within a large multi-month trading range. Key resistance continues to hold at 1.4379 (June swing high), which has for some time marked a strong distribution pattern. CHF/CAD is retesting its support nearby the 200-day MA at 1.1275, following the dramatic price slide lower (triggered by the SNB

50%

intervention). The cross-rate has now retraced more than half of its 2011 gains.
50% 200-DMA (1.3833)

(1.3570)
61.8%

(1.3379)

(1.1488)
61.8%

(1.0893)
200-DMA (1.1875)

EUR/CAD (Daily)

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
LONG 3: 1.0050, Objs:1.0270/1.0660/1.0850, Stop: 0.9890

EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 6

AUD/USD
AUD/USD
(1 YEAR)
DEMARK SELL SIGNALS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

02 November, 2011
AUD/USD
(Weekly)

Sharp setbacks weigh.

AUD/USDs sharp setbacks continue to weigh. The move was triggered from key resistance at 1.0765 (01st Sept high) and is now holding beneath
STRUCTURAL LEVEL

the 200-day MA (1.0407). A sustained move below here is likely to mount downside pressure on the
3 YEAR UPTREND IS UNDER PRESSURE

38.2%

(0.9144)
50%

(0.8546)
200-DMA (1.0407) 61.8%

rates multi-year uptrend. The bears need to confirm beneath 1.0322 (26th Oct low) and 1.0188 (18th Oct low). A break here will unlock sharp setbacks into 1.0000. Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains stable against the New Zealand dollar. The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2320 and

(0.7947) KEY ZONE

AUD/USD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/NZD (Daily) AUD/JPY (Daily)
DEMARK SELL SIGNAL

1.2100.
13

The Aussie dollar has reversed gains against the Japanese yen and is now trading back below the long-term 200-day MA which is currently at 83.11. Near-term support continues to hold at 77.63 (18th Oct low). A break here will resume downside scope into 76.70 and signal further unwinding of risk

200-DMA CAPS BEAR MKT 38.2%

appetite.
200DMA (83.12)

(76.70)
50%

(72.58)
61.8%

(68.47)

RESUMPTION OF BREAKDOWN ADDS TO RISK AVERSION

KEY SUPPORT 1.2319 / 1.2100

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 1.0570, Obj: 1.0230/1.0010/0.9710, Stop: 1.0750

AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 7

GBP/JPY

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

02 November, 2011

Short-term a return towards 122.65 is favoured.

GBP/JPY has entered into a period of consolidation following the intervention by the BOJ in USD/JPY at the start of the week. This has led to a breach above the key 123.31 level, which now warns of a much larger corrective phase higher. However, given the nature of the upside surge, a return to the 122.65 region is favoured ahead of further strength. Bigger picture a further rise towards 129.00/130.00 is possible, given the daily structure present since 116.84. A push back under 121.39 is required to negate this positive structure. Assuming that further short-term strength can be realised, a lower high would be anticipated close to 129.00, near the 200 day moving average GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP which is currently at 128.89. Thus the region between 129.00 and 130.00 would be attractive for renewed short positioning. In the meantime, a higher low may form close to the old 122.38/65 ceiling, with a short-term swing back into the 129.00-130.00 region in mind.

GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Buy limit 3 at 122.70, Objs: 124.10/126.00/127.32, Stop: 121.30

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 8

EUR/JPY

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

02 November, 2011

Possible symmetric correction complete at 111.60.

EUR/JPY has seen a significant break higher out of a falling channel, leaving a false break lower at 100.76, in the daily timeframe. However, we also note that the rise to 111.60 may eqaute to the completion of a symmetric correction from 100.76, thus warning of a return to weakness. Further price action needs to be monitored to try to determine a near-term bias, with the current stance being neutral. Should the region near 112.50 be met a lower high would be favoured to form in that region, close to the 200 day moving average, currently at 112.62. A sustained hold over the 200 day moving average will turn the outlook EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP bullish. In the meantime a mild bearish bias remains in place.

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 9

EUR/GBP

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

02 November, 2011

Poor trade loaction keeps us on the sidelines.

EUR/GBP saw a push back under 0.8670 in recent trade which now likely leaves a lower high at 0.8831, very close to the region in which we expected weakness to manifest, near the old double top at 0.8886/85. The bias remains mildly bearish, although trade location remains poor with a return back towards 0.8831 offering better opportunities. Alternatively, we await a clear break under the 0.8530/31 double bottom to realize a breakout from the 0.8530-0.8886 trading range. There is an increased probability of general range bound trade, thus short entry at higher levels is also supported by the potential of a return to a period similar to that between 2003 and 2007 (not shown). EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP A move back over 0.8960 is required to neutralise our mild bearish bias, in a generally rangebound environment.

EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Look to sell higher.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 10

EUR/CHF
Tight range holds under 1.2200.

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

02 November, 2011

EUR/CHF has entered into a tight consolidation range just under the 1.2200 level, testing the resolve of the SNB to defend levels higher than 1.2000. Failure to hold within the confines of the earlier hourly rising

channel also warns of a return towards the key high near 1.1973, close to the 1.2000 floor in EUR/CHF. Should a re-test of the 1.2000 region take place with a fall under 1.1973 also following, this would warn of the end of the recovery seen since 1.0075, increasing the probability of a return to this level. This brings back into focus the 1.2500 1.3000 zone where resistance was always anticipated. Also noted is the failure to maintain trade above the EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP 200 day moving average. Given the sustained push over 6% in 10 year Italian government bond yields, the question arises as to whether or not the SNB will be able to hold back the possible flow of funds into Swiss Francs that may occur if further stresses lead to yet higher yields in Italian government bonds.

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND
Await fresh trading signal.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 11

GOLD
GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS
DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 UPSIDE: $1760 / $1844

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

02 November, 2011

RISK ZONE III

DOUBLE TOP

Risk of a larger decline beneath $1530.

Gold remains bearish after its dramatic 20% price fall, which helped confirm the extreme overbought conditions (marked by DeMark

DEMARK SIGNAL WARNED OF GOLDS OVERBOUGHT CONDITIONS

20% SO FAR

$1760

indicators). This also timed a key cycle peak, ahead of that all-important
$1704

$2000 glass-ceiling. Most concerning is that speculative (net long) flows have recently breached

$1600

34%
$1532
BREAKOUT 200-DMA NOT BROKEN IN 3 YEARS!

a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold positions. In price terms, Golds latest 20% bearish slide is still worth less than the largest average drawdown measured since the start of the yellow metals

26%
CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530 UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINE INTO $1300 & $1040-1000 TREND CHANNEL
(12 YEARS)

long-term bull market in 1999. There is heightened risk of a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly close beneath $1600 and $1554-30 (200-day MA/swing low), which has not been breached in 3 years! A number of bargain hunting trend-followers will be watching this

COT NET LONG SPECULATOR POSITIONS

benchmark line in the sand for repeat support or a potential big squeeze lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000. Remember, this would still offer a unique buying opportunity in the near future.

I
25%
OVER 2 YEARS OF SIZEABLE LONG GOLD POSITIONS UNDER THREAT IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS

Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage: Special Report Golds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600 MIG Bank Gold Interview on CNBC Squawk Box
(CNBC & BLOOMBERG REPORTS)

VIDEO

MIG Bank Gold Webinar video

II

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 1710, Obj: 1600/1530/1300, Stop: 1760

Gold weekly, daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 12

SILVER
Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! Silver (Daily)
DEMARK SELL SIGNALS DEMARK SELL SIGNAL

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

02 November, 2011

13

Key support at $26.0700.

Silvers latest price capitulation is a painful reminder to the investment community that lightning can strike twice. Note, this marks the second time silver has crashed, following its 30% fall last April.

200 DMA (36.5125)

The move was triggered following a DeMark exhaustion sell signal and II has now wiped out almost 50% of silvers prior gains (taken from Silvers all-time high at 49.7900) which was last seen in 1980.

KEY SUPPORT (26.0700)

38.2%

Such a dramatic move traditionally produces volatile trading ranges. This allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.

(32.3135)

Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio

50%

(26.9150)

Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8% Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silvers long-

61.8%

(21.5165) 13 YEAR LEVEL

UNWINDING 67% FROM OVERSOLD TERRITORY

term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual resumption higher. Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio which has now accelerated higher by 67%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.

OVER

30 YEAR BASE PATTERN

BULL MARKET FROM 1999

Silver Monthly (since 1980)

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 34.1300, Obj: 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 35.6880

Spot Silver daily, weekly chart and Gold/Silver mint ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP
www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 13

LEGAL TERMS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

02 November, 2011

DISCLAIMER
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever. The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before making any investment decision. All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

Limitation of liability
MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind, including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

Material Interests
MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright
All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.

www.migbank.com

14

CONTACT

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

02 November, 2011

Howard Friend www.migbank.com Chief Market Strategist h.friend@migbank.com

Ron William Technical Strategist r.william@migbank.com

Bjioy Kar Technical Strategist b.kar@migbank.com

MIG BANK info@migbank.com www.migbank.com

14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Tel.+41 32 722 81 00 15