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A visual essay
The Chinese economy is much more integrated with the world economy through international
trade and investment, which helps to explain its stronger rate of GDP growth during most of the past 3
decades. For its economic development, China has relied on industry and India on services. China’s
ratios of domestic savings and investment to GDP are roughly double those of India’s.
Both economies currently enjoy strong external positions, with ample foreign exchange reserves.
Higher oil prices are not likely to have a significant adverse impact on external liquidity. China and
India have low external debt as a percentage of GDP, and the ratio of short-term external debt to
foreign reserves is low.
Despite declining fiscal deficits, the level of public sector debt is a cause for concern,
especially in India. In particular, interest payments as a percentage of general government revenue
are very high in India, making the prospect of fiscal consolidation more remote. Excess domestic
liquidity presents a bigger challenge to China than India. M2 in China is heading toward 200% of GDP
+49 69 910-31745
with domestic credit almost 170% of GDP. This explains the rapid rise in CPI inflation during 2004, on
which the Chinese authorities are still keeping a tight rein.
Surveys indicate India has better corporate governance standards and its companies are more
commercially-driven. This explains why, despite China’s superior economic growth and macro-
economic stability, India’s rate of return on assets has been much higher, non-performing loans in the
banking sector lower, and stock market performance much better.
Editors: J. A.-Mund / N. Brandt / S. Hansakul, Frankfurt
Social indicators reflect generally improving living conditions for the average Chinese. China
also enjoys superior physical infrastructure, although India’s availability of skilled workers, especially
engineers, is much better regarded.
China’s early steps to liberalise its economy and invest heavily to modernise its physical
infrastructure gave it a substantial edge over India in terms of income per capita levels. They also
made China a more attractive destination to foreign investors. However, although India started
economic reforms only a decade later than China, it is far more advanced in its institutional
infrastructure and corporate governance. This is reflected in contrasting outcomes: foreign direct
investment is considerably lower than in China, but returns on investment are better on average. The
key to unlock India’s potential to rival China as an FDI destination is a decisive effort by the Indian
authorities to push ahead with reforms.
1
GDP
China & India: Real GDP growth China & India: Nominal GDP
% change, yoy USD bn
18 1900
15
1600
12 India China
China 1300
9
6 1000
3
India 700
0
400
-3
-6 100
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002
Source: IIF Source: IIF
China & India: GDP per capita (nominal) China & India: GDP per capita (PPP)
USD USD
1500 7000
1300 6000
India China India China
1100 5000
900 4000
700 3000
500 2000
300 1000
100 0
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Source: IIF Source: IMF
China: Nominal GDP vs. GDP based on PPP India: Nominal GDP vs. GDP based on PPP
USD bn
8000 USD bn
4000
7000
GDP based on PPP nom GDP GDP based on PPP nom GDP
6000
3000
5000
4000
2000
3000
2000 1000
1000
0 0
1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004
Source: IMF, IIF Source: IMF, IIF
2
GDP and structure of economy
China & India: GDP based on PPP as % of world total in 2004
USA
Others 21%
38% Japan
7%
Euro area
15%
India China
6% 13%
Source: IMF
2003 2003
1990 22%
1990
53% Industry
42%
Services 22% 56%
Industry
31% 32%
46%
32% Services
27%
Agriculture
22%
Agriculture
15%
China & India: Gross domestic savings China & India: Gross domestic investment
% of GDP % of GDP
55 50
China India China India
50 45
45 40
40 35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10 10
5 5
0 0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Source: IIF Source: IIF
3
External sector
China & India: Export of goods & services as % of world total in 2004
USA
10% Japan
6%
Other
46%
Euro area
31%
India China
Source: IMF 1% 6%
China & India: Total merchandise trade China & India: Exports of goods
as % of GDP as % of GDP
80 40
70 35
India China
60 30
India China
50 25
40 20
30 15
20 10
10 5
0 0
1990 2004 1990 2004
Source: Reserve Bank of India, CEIC Source: Reserve Bank of India, CEIC
China & India: Merchandise exports China & India: Merchandise imports
USD bn USD bn
700 600
600 500
China India China India
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100 100
0 0
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002
Source: IIF Source: IIF
4
External sector
China: Top 5 export partners in 2004, as % of China: Top 5 export partners in 1994, as % of
total exports total exports
South
Korea Germ any
Japan
5.7% 4.9%
20.6%
Japan
15.2%
India: Top 5 export partners in 2003, as % of India: Top 5 export partners in 1994, as % of
total exports total exports
Hong
China
Kong
United 4.7%
5.8%
Kingdom United
4.8% Kingdom
6.4%
USA USA
Hong 2003 19.1%
Kong 18.1% 1994
5.1% Germ any
6.6%
United
Arab
Em irates Japan
8.0% 7.7%
10
15
10
5
0 0
Clothing & Electrical Yarn & textiles Non-metallic Clothing Textile, yarn,
garments machinery & mineral manuf. fabric
equipment
Source: EIU Source: EIU
5
External sector
China: Top 5 import partners in 2004, as % of China: Top 5 import partners in 1994, as % of
total imports total imports
Taiw an Hong
11.5% Taiw an Kong
12.2% 8.2%
USA
8.0% EU USA
12.3% 12.1%
2004 1994
Japan
Japan 22.8%
South EU
16.8%
Korea 14.7%
11.1%
India: Top 5 import partners in 2003, as % of India: Top 5 import partners in 1994, as % of
total imports total imports
United United
Kingdom Kingdom
4.1% 5.4%
USA
USA
6.3% Saudi
10.1%
Sw itzerland Arabia
4.3% 5.5%
2003 1994
China Japan
Belgium Germ any
5.3% 7.1%
5.1% 7.6%
15 30
10 20
5 10
0 0
Electrical Crude oil & Yarn & textiles Basic Mineral fuels Machines &
machinery products manufactures transport
Source: EIU equipment
Source: EIU
6
External sector
2 5
15 60
USD bn (right) % of GDP (left)
USD bn (right)
50 1 0
% of GDP (left)
10 40 0 -5
30
-1 -10
5 20
-2 -15
10
0 0 -3 -20
-10 -4 -25
-5 -20
-5 -30
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Source: IIF Source: IIF
10 80 4 12
USD bn (right) % of GDP (left) USD bn (right) % of GDP (left)
70 10
8 3
60 8
6 2 6
50
4 1 4
40
2
2 30 0
0
0 20 -1 -2
10 -4
-2 -2
0 -6
-4 -3
-10 -8
-6 -20 -4 -10
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Source: IIF Source: IIF
USD bn
800
China India
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
May-05
Jun-05
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Apr-05
Source: CEIC
7
External sector
40 12 35 40
USD bn (left) USD bn (left)
35 % of total imports (right) 30 35
10 % of total imports (right)
30 30
25
8
25 25
20
20 6 20
15
15 15
4
10
10 10
2 5
5 5
0 0 0 0
1994 1997 2000 2003 1994 1997 2000 2003
Source: CEIC Source: Reserve Bank of India
30 250 40 140
USD bn (right) USD bn (right)
% of GDP (left) 35 % of GDP (left)
25 120
200
30
100
20
150 25
80
15 20
100 60
15
10
40
10
50
5
5 20
0 0 0 0
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Source: IIF Source: IIF
250 80 400 18
USD bn (right)
USD bn (right)
as % of reserves (left) 70 16
200 as % of reserves (left)
60 300 14
50 12
150
10
40 200
8
100 30
6
20 100
50 4
10 2
0 0 0 0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Source: IIF Source: IIF
8
FDI inflows
240 60 150 7
USD bn (right) USD bn (right)
210 % yoy (left) % yoy (left)
50 120 6
180
90 5
150 40
120 60 4
30
90 30 3
60 20
0 2
30
10
0 -30 1
-30 0 -60 0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Source: DBR Source: Reserve Bank of India
China: Top 5 sources of FDI in 2003, China: Top 5 sources of FDI in 1994,
in % of total utilised FDI in % of total utilised FDI
Japan
14.2%
Hong
Kong
South
67.5%
Korea Taiw an
Hong
Kong 2003 12.7% 1994 11.5%
50.2%
EU-15 USA
11.1% 8.5%
USA EU-15
11.8% Japan 5.3%
7.1%
Source: CEIC Source: CEIC
India: Top 5 sources of FDI in 2004, India: Top 5 sources of FDI in 1994,
in % of actual flows in % of actual flows
United
USA Kingdom
Mauritius 16.6% 20.6%
58.9% USA
2004 55.4%
Singa-
1994
pore Germ any
United 9.6% 9.0%
Arab
Em irates Mauritius
United 8.5%
9.5% Japan
Kingdom
5.4% 6.4%
Source: CEIC Source: CEIC
9
Fiscal accounts
China: Fiscal balance & total public sector India: Fiscal balance & total public sector
debt debt
% of GDP % of GDP
30 -5 % of GDP % of GDP
90 -12
25 80
-4 -10
70
20
-3 60 -8
15 50
-6
-2 40
10 30 -4
-1 20
5 -2
10
0 0 0 0
1998 2000 2002 2004 1998 2000 2002 2004
Total public sector debt (left) Total public sector debt (left)
Central gov't fiscal balance (right) General gov't fiscal balance (right)
Source: DBR Source: DBR, Reserve Bank of India
China: Central government revenues & India: Central government revenues &
expenditures expenditures
% of GDP % of GDP % of GDP
25 25 % of GDP
16 16
20 20
12 12
15 15
8 8
10 10
4 4
5 5
0 0 0 0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Central gov't expenditures (left) Central gov't expenditures (left)
Central gov't revenues (right) Central gov't revenues (right)
Source: DBR Source: DBR, Reserve Bank of India
7 40
30
5
4
20
3
China (left) India (right)
2
10
1
0 0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: Moody's
10
Monetary sector and prices
20000 140
15000 60
120
15000
100
10000 50
10000 80
60
5000 5000 40
40
0 20 0 30
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Source: DBR Source: Reserve Bank of India, DBR
3 180 0.5 65
RMB tr (left) INR tr (left)
% of GDP (right) % of GDP (right)
0.4 60
150
2
0.3 55
120
0.2 50
1
90
0.1 45
0 60 0 40
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Source: IFS Source: IFS
China & India: Annual inflation China & India: Recent inflation trend
% yoy % yoy
25 10
India: WPI, aop China CPI India WPI
China: CPI, aop
20
8
15
6
10
4
5
2
0
-5 0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2004 2005
Source: DBR Source: Bloomberg
11
Exchange rates & interest rates
China: Exchange rate (nominal & REER*) India: Exchange rate (nominal & REER*)
Index, 2000=100
Index, 2000=100 inverted scale inverted scale
300 0
350 0
8.0
7.5
5.5 7.0
6.5
6.0
* 12 month w orking capital
5.0 5.5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Apr-00 Apr-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05
Source: CMABB Source: Reserve Bank of India
China: 7-year generic government bond yield India: 10-year government bond yield
% %
6 8
5
7
6
3
2 5
Feb 03 Jun 03 Dec 03 Apr 04 Sep 04 Jun 05 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
12
Banking sector & financial markets
China & India: Bank return on assets China & India: NPL ratios
% of total loans
35
China India
2002
30
India
China 25
20
2001
15
10
2000
5
0
0 0.5 1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: IMF Source: IMF
2600 300
8000
BSE National Index, eop
250 Mumbai SENSEX 30 Index, eop 7000
2100
6000
200
1600
5000
150
1100 4000
100
3000
600
50 2000
Shanghai B-Share Index, eop (right)
Shanghai A-Share Index, eop (left) 1000
100 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
China & India: Bond issuance China & India: Price earnings ratios*
USD bn
5 35
China India
30
4 China India
25
20
3
15
2 10
5
1
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
0 *China: Shenzhen A-Share Index; India: Mumbai SENSEX
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 30 Index
Source: IMF Source: IMF
13
Population & labour force
800
600
26
400 1990
200 27
0 as % of total
1960 1970 1980 1990 2005 E 0 10 20 30 40 50
Source: UN, DBR Source: World Development Indicators, 2005
Workforce, ages 15 - 64: CN, IN, DE, US China & India: Labour force participation*
millions of people
1000
CN IN DE US India 71
800 2003
China 87
600
72
400
1990
89
200
%
0 20 40 60 80 100
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2005 E as % of total population, ages 15-64
Source: UN, DBR Source: DBR, World Development Indicators,
China & India: Female labour force China & India: Skilled labour & engineers
participation
India 8.94
Qualified
India 45
engineering
2003 China 4.129
China 79
7.8
Skilled labor
4.8
42
1990
0 2 4 6 8 10
80
*) Data are based on response from Institute for
as % of total Management & Development's annual Executive Opinion
0 20 40 60 80 Survey. High score equals high availability of skilled labour
Source: World Development Indicators, 2005 and qualified engineers.
14
Social indicators
China & India: Average life expectancy China & India: Infant mortality*
India 63 India 63
2003
2003
China 30
China 71
84
59 1990
1990 38
69
years 0 20 40 60 80 100
0 20 40 60 80 * per 1000 live births
Source: World Development Indicators, 2005 Source: World Development Indicators, 2005
China & India: Health expenditure in 2001 China & India: Gini coefficient
Health 5
expenditure,
% of GDP
5.5 India 33
2003
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 10 20 30 40 50
Source: World Development Indicators, 2004 Source: World Development Indicators, 2005
China & India: Adult literacy* China & India: Tertiary enrolment rate
India 68 India 11
2003 2003
China 95 China 13
62 6
1990 1990
87 3
0 20 40 60 80 100 0 5 10 15
* % ages 15 or older
Source: World Development Indicators, 2005 Source: World Development Indicators, 2005
15
Infrastructure
China & India: Fixed-line vs. mobile phones China & India: Internet users per 1000 people
per 1000 people in 2003 in 2003
25
Mobile
phones
215 India 17
India 46 China 63
Telephone
mainlines
China 209
China & India: PCs per 1000 people in 2003 China & India: Aircraft departures in 2003
in thousands
China & India: Roads network in 2001 China & India: Electric power in 2001
India 46 Transmission 27
Paved roads, & distribution
% losses, % of
China 91 output 7
Source: World Development Indicators, 2004 Source: World Development Indicators, 2004
16
Business environment & investment climate
China & India: Governance indicators* China & India: Obstacles in doing business
indicators
Control of India
India
corruption China Employment
law index*
China
Rule of law
Procedures
Regulatory to enforce a
effectiveness contract
Government
effectiveness Days to start
a business
Political
stability
Number of
Voice and start-up
accountability procedures
0 1 2 3 4 0 20 40 60 80 100
*) The six governance indicators are measured in units ranging from
about -2.5 to 2.5, with higher values corresponding to better
governance outcomes. Data have been rescaled to 0-5.
*) Higher score = more rigid labour laws
Source: World Bank Governance Index Source: World Development Indicators, 2004
2002
17