Emerging Oil Markets

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level
Final Report
Energy Community
26 April 2011
Contents
1. 2. 3. Executive Summary .......................................................................... 1 Introduction ....................................................................................... 4 Methodologies ................................................................................... 5 3.1. Methodology for Energy Demand Forecasting .................................. 5 3.2. Stock Holding Obligation Calculation Methodology ........................... 8 3.3. Data Reporting Requirements ......................................................... 10 3.4. Data Collection and Processing....................................................... 10 3.5. Facilities Capital and Operating Cost Estimation ............................. 14 3.6. Forward Crude Oil & Product Pricing ............................................... 15 3.7. Obligation Calculation Model Construction ...................................... 19 The Role of the Central Stockholding Agency ................................. 20 4.1. CSE Formation and Constitution ..................................................... 20 4.1.1. Hungary .................................................................................... 20 4.1.2. Czech Republic ........................................................................ 22 4.2. CSE Operation ................................................................................ 23 4.3. CSE Financing ................................................................................. 24 Albania ............................................................................................ 25 5.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand .............................. 25 5.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligations .................................................... 29 5.3. Current Oil Infrastructure ................................................................. 32 5.4. Emergency Oil Stock Current Situation ........................................... 35 5.5. Additional required stockholding capacities ..................................... 36 5.6. Legal Review ................................................................................... 36 5.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks ....................................................... 37 5.8. Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System ....................... 39 5.9. Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption ........................................ 40 5.10. Required Legislative Changes ......................................................... 40 5.11. Road Map ........................................................................................ 41 Bosnia and Herzegovina ................................................................. 44 6.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand .............................. 44 6.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligation ...................................................... 47 6.3. Current Oil Infrastructure ................................................................. 49 6.4. Emergency Oil Stock Current Situation ........................................... 52 6.5. Additional required stockholding capacities ..................................... 52 6.6. Legal Review ................................................................................... 52 6.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks ....................................................... 53 6.8. Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System ....................... 55 6.9. Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption ........................................ 55 6.10. Required Legislative Changes ......................................................... 55 6.11. Road Map ........................................................................................ 56 Croatia ............................................................................................ 58 7.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand .............................. 58 7.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligation ...................................................... 62 7.3. Current Oil Infrastructure ................................................................. 64
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Emergency Oil Stock Current Situation ........................................... 68 Additional Required Stockholding Capacities .................................. 68 Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks ....................................................... 69 Legal Review ................................................................................... 69 Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System ....................... 70 Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption ........................................ 71 Required Legislative Changes ......................................................... 72 Road Map ........................................................................................ 72 8. FYR Macedonia .............................................................................. 74 8.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand .............................. 74 8.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligation ...................................................... 77 8.3. Current Oil Infrastructure ................................................................. 80 8.4. Emergency Oil Stock Current Situation ........................................... 83 8.5. Additional Required Stockholding Capacities .................................. 84 8.6. Legal Review ................................................................................... 85 8.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks ....................................................... 86 8.8. Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System ....................... 88 8.9. Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption ........................................ 89 8.10. Required Legislative Changes ......................................................... 90 8.11. Road Map ........................................................................................ 90 9. Moldova .......................................................................................... 93 9.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand .............................. 93 9.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligation ...................................................... 95 9.3. Current Oil Infrastructure ................................................................. 98 9.4. Emergency Oil Stock Current Situation ........................................... 99 9.5. Additional Required Stockholding Capacities .................................. 99 9.6. Legal Review ................................................................................... 99 9.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks ....................................................... 99 9.8. Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System ..................... 101 9.9. Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption ...................................... 101 9.10. Required Legislative Changes ....................................................... 101 9.11. Road Map ...................................................................................... 101 10. Montenegro ................................................................................... 103 10.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand ............................ 103 10.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligation .................................................... 105 10.3. Current Oil Infrastructure ............................................................... 107 10.4. Emergency Oil Stock Current Situation ......................................... 108 10.5. Additional Required Stockholding Capacities ................................ 108 10.6. Legal Review ................................................................................. 109 10.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks ..................................................... 109 10.8. Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System ..................... 111 10.9. Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption ...................................... 112 10.10. Required Legislative Changes ....................................................... 112 10.11. Road Map ...................................................................................... 112 11. Serbia............................................................................................ 114 11.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand ............................ 114
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7.4. 7.5. 7.6. 7.7. 7.8. 7.9. 7.10. 7.11.
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11.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligation .................................................... 118 11.3. Current Oil Infrastructure ............................................................... 120 11.4. Emergency Oil Stock Current Situation ......................................... 123 11.5. Additional Required Stockholding Capacities ................................ 123 11.6. Legal Review ................................................................................. 124 11.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks ..................................................... 124 11.8. Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System ..................... 126 11.9. Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption ...................................... 126 11.10. Required Legislative Changes ....................................................... 127 11.11. Road Map ...................................................................................... 127 12. UNMIK .......................................................................................... 129 12.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand ............................ 129 12.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligation .................................................... 130 12.3. Current Oil Infrastructure ............................................................... 133 12.4. Emergency Oil Stock Current Situation ......................................... 135 12.5. Additional Required Stockholding Capacities ................................ 135 12.6. Legal Review ................................................................................. 135 12.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks ..................................................... 135 12.8. Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System ..................... 137 12.9. Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption ...................................... 137 12.10. Required Legislative Changes ....................................................... 137 12.11. Road Map ...................................................................................... 138 13. Georgia ......................................................................................... 140 13.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand ............................ 141 13.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligations .................................................. 143 13.3. Current Oil Infrastructure ............................................................... 145 13.4. Emergency Oil Stock Current Situation ......................................... 147 13.5. Additional Required Stock Holding Capacities............................... 147 13.6. Legal Review ................................................................................. 147 13.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks ..................................................... 147 13.8. Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System ..................... 148 13.9. Intervention is Case of Supply Disruption ...................................... 148 13.10. Required Legal Changes ............................................................... 148 13.11. Road Map ...................................................................................... 149 14. Turkey ........................................................................................... 151 14.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand ............................ 152 14.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligation .................................................... 154 14.3. Current Oil Infrastructure ............................................................... 156 14.4. Emergency Stock Holding Current Situation.................................. 159 14.5. Additional Required Stock Holding Capacity ................................. 159 14.6. Legal Review ................................................................................. 159 14.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks ..................................................... 160 14.8. Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System ..................... 160 14.9. Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption ...................................... 160 14.10. Road Map ...................................................................................... 161 15. Ukraine .......................................................................................... 163
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15.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand ............................ 163 15.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligation .................................................... 166 15.3. Current Oil Infrastructure ............................................................... 167 15.4. Emergency Stock Holding Situation .............................................. 169 15.5. Additional Capacity Requirements ................................................. 169 15.6. Legal Review ................................................................................. 169 15.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks ..................................................... 169 15.8. Organisational Aspects of the Stockholding System ..................... 170 15.9. Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption ...................................... 170 15.10. Required Legislative Changes ....................................................... 170 15.11. Road Map ...................................................................................... 170 16. Regional Approach........................................................................ 172 16.1. Introduction .................................................................................... 172 16.2. Regulation ..................................................................................... 172 16.3. Infrastructure ................................................................................. 173 16.4. Examples of regional approaches ................................................. 174 16.5. Economic Rationale for a Regional Approach ............................... 178 16.6. Recommendations ......................................................................... 179 16.7. Community Road Map ................................................................... 179 17. General Conclusions and Recommendations ............................... 182 18. Appendix 1 - Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand (Data Tables) 184 18.1. Albania........................................................................................... 184 18.2. BiH ................................................................................................. 186 18.3. Croatia ........................................................................................... 188 18.4. FYR Macedonia ............................................................................. 191 18.5. Moldova ......................................................................................... 193 18.6. Montenegro ................................................................................... 195 18.7. Serbia ............................................................................................ 196 18.8. UNMIK ........................................................................................... 199 18.9. Georgia .......................................................................................... 200 18.10. Turkey............................................................................................ 201 19. Appendix 2 - Economic Forecasting Assumptions ........................ 204

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Figures
Figure 1 Planning Process Interaction ............................................................. 5 Figure 2 MAED Model Main Inputs and Outputs .............................................. 8 Figure 3 Refiners Data Collection Sheet ........................................................ 12 Figure 4 Importers Data Collection Form ....................................................... 13 Figure 5 Product/Crude Price Ratios ............................................................. 17 Figure 6 Crude Oil Production, Albania, 2007-2020....................................... 26 Figure 7 Crude Oil Import and Export, Albania, 2007-2020 ........................... 26 Figure 8 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Albania, 2007-2020 ............ 27 Figure 9 Petroleum Product Imports, Albania, 2007-2020 ............................. 27 Figure 10 Petroleum Product Exports, Albania, 2007-2020 ........................... 28 Figure 11 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Albania, 2007-2020 ................................................................................................................ 28 Figure 12 Oil Product Supply and Demand, Albania, 2007-2020 ................... 29 Figure 13 Oil Infrastructure, Albania .............................................................. 32 Figure 14 Wholesale Companies Obliged to Hold Emergency Oil Stocks, Albania 2001-2009.................................................................................. 35 Figure 15 Proposed Build-up of Emergency Stocks Formation in Albania, 2012-2020............................................................................................... 39 Figure 16 Gantt Diagram for Road Map, Albania ........................................... 43 Figure 17 Crude Oil Imports, BiH, 2007-2020 ................................................ 44 Figure 18 Net Production of Petroleum Products, BiH, 2007-2020 ................ 45 Figure 19 Petroleum Product Imports, BiH, 2007-2020 ................................. 45 Figure 20 Petroleum Product Exports, BiH, 2007-2020 ................................. 46 Figure 21 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, BiH, 2007-2020... 46 Figure 22 Oil Product Supply and Demand, BiH, 2007-2020 ......................... 47 Figure 23 Oil Infrastructure, BiH..................................................................... 50 Figure 24 Proposed Build-up of Emergency Stocks Formation in BiH, 20122020 ........................................................................................................ 55 Figure 25 Road Map Gantt Diagram, BiH ...................................................... 57 Figure 26 Oil and Condensate Production, Croatia, 2007-2020 .................... 58 Figure 27 Crude Oil Import, Croatia, 2007-2020 ............................................ 59 Figure 28 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Croatia, 2007-2020 .......... 59 Figure 29 Petroleum Product Imports, Croatia, 2007-2020............................ 60 Figure 30 Petroleum Product Exports, Croatia, 2007-2020 ........................... 60 Figure 31 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Croatia, 2007-2020 ................................................................................................................ 61 Figure 32 Oil Product Supply and Demand, Croatia, 2007-2020 ................... 61 Figure 33 Oil Infrastructure, Croatia ............................................................... 64 Figure 34 HANDA Organisation Chart, Croatia .............................................. 71 Figure 35 Road Map Gantt Diagram, Croatia ................................................ 73 Figure 36 Crude Oil Import, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020 .............................. 74 Figure 37 Net Production of Petroleum Products, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020 ................................................................................................................ 75 Figure 38 Petroleum Product Imports, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020 ............. 75

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Figure 39 Petroleum Product Exports, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020 ............. 76 Figure 40 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020............................................................................................... 76 Figure 41 Oil Product Supply and Demands, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020 ... 77 Figure 42 Oil Infrastructure, FYR Macedonia ................................................. 80 Figure 43 Proposed Build-up of Emergency Stocks Formation in FYR Macedonia, 2012-2020 ........................................................................... 88 Figure 44 Organisation of Directorate for Compulsory Reserves of Oil and Oil Derivatives, FYR Macedonia .................................................................. 89 Figure 45 Road Map Gantt Diagram, FYR Macedonia .................................. 92 Figure 46 Crude Oil Production, Moldova, 2007-2020 ................................... 93 Figure 47 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Moldova, 2007-2020 ........ 93 Figure 48 Petroleum Product Imports, Moldova, 2007-2020 .......................... 94 Figure 49 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Moldova, 20072020 ........................................................................................................ 94 Figure 50 Oil Product Supply and Demand, Moldova, 2007-2020 ................. 95 Figure 51 Oil Infrastructure, Moldova ............................................................. 98 Figure 52 Proposed Build-up of Emergency Stocks Formation in Moldova, 2012-2020............................................................................................. 101 Figure 53 Road Map Gantt Diagram, Moldova ............................................ 102 Figure 54 Petroleum Product Imports, Montenegro, 2007-2020 .................. 103 Figure 55 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Montenegro, 20072020 ...................................................................................................... 104 Figure 56 Oil Product Supply and Demand, Montenegro, 2007-2020 ......... 104 Figure 57 Oil Infrastructure, Montenegro ..................................................... 107 Figure 58 Proposed Build-up of Emergency Stocks Formation in Montenegro, 2011-2020............................................................................................. 111 Figure 59 Road Map Gantt Diagram, Montenegro ....................................... 113 Figure 60 Oil and Condensate Production, Serbia, 2007-2020 .................... 114 Figure 61 Crude Oil Imports, Serbia, 2007-2020 ......................................... 115 Figure 62 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Serbia, 2007-2020 ......... 115 Figure 63 Petroleum Product Imports, Serbia, 2007-2020 ........................... 116 Figure 64 Petroleum Product Exports, Serbia, 2007-2020........................... 116 Figure 65 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Serbia, 2007-2020 .............................................................................................................. 117 Figure 66 Oil Products Supply and Demand, Serbia, 2007-2020 ................ 117 Figure 67 Oil Infrastructure, Serbia .............................................................. 120 Figure 68 Proposed Build-up of Emergency Stocks Formation in Serbia, 20112020 ...................................................................................................... 126 Figure 69 Road Map Gantt Diagram, Serbia ................................................ 128 Figure 70 Petroleum Product Imports, UNMIK, 2007-2020.......................... 129 Figure 71 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, UNMIK, 2007-2020 .............................................................................................................. 130 Figure 72 Oil Product Supply and Demand, UNMIK, 2007-2020 ................. 130 Figure 73 Oil Infrastructure .......................................................................... 133

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Figure 74 Proposed Build-up of Emergency Stocks Formation in UNMIK, 2011-2020............................................................................................. 137 Figure 75 Road Map Gantt Diagram, UNMIK .............................................. 139 Figure 76 Crude Oil Imports and Exports, Georgia, 2007-2020 ................... 141 Figure 77 Petroleum Product Imports, Georgia, 2007-2020 ........................ 142 Figure 78 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Georgia, 2007-2020 .............................................................................................................. 142 Figure 79 Oil Product Supply and Demand, Georgia, 2007-2020 ................ 143 Figure 80 Oil Infrastructure .......................................................................... 146 Figure 81 Map of Georgia Pipelines............................................................. 147 Figure 82 Road Map Gantt Georgia ............................................................. 150 Figure 83 Crude Oil Supply, Turkey, 2008-2020 .......................................... 152 Figure 84 Petroleum Product Production, Turkey, 2008 - 2010 ................... 152 Figure 85 Petroleum Products Balance, Turkey, 2007-2020 ....................... 153 Figure 86 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Turkey, 2007-2020 .............................................................................................................. 153 Figure 87 Oil Product Supply and Demand, Turkey, 2007-2020 .................. 154 Figure 88 Existing Infrastructure .................................................................. 156 Figure 89 Refineries..................................................................................... 159 Figure 90 Road Map Gantt Diagram, Turkey ............................................... 162 Figure 91 Crude Oil Supply, Ukraine, 2008-2020 ........................................ 163 Figure 92 Petroleum Product Production, Ukraine, 2008 - 2010 .................. 164 Figure 93 Petroleum Products Balance, Ukraine, 2007-2020 ...................... 164 Figure 94 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Ukraine, 2007-2020 .............................................................................................................. 165 Figure 95 Oil Product Supply and Demand, Ukraine, 2007-2020 ................ 165 Figure 96 Road Map Gantt Diagram, Ukraine .............................................. 171 Figure 97 Energy Community Road Map ..................................................... 181

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Tables
Table 1 Summary of Compliance Status with Directive 2009/119/EC.............. 2 Table 2 Assumed Tankage Construction Costs ............................................. 14 Table 3 Storage Operating Cost Estimates .................................................... 14 Table 4 Assumed Product Prices ................................................................... 18 Table 5 HUSA Cash Flows ............................................................................ 22 Table 6 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, Albania, 2009-2020............................................................................................... 29 Table 7 90 Days Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, Albania, 2009-2020............................................................................................... 30 Table 8 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Albania, 2009-2020 ... 30 Table 9 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Albania, 2009-2020 30 Table 10 Stockholding Obligation According to Average Daily Inland Consumption, Albania, 2010-2021.......................................................... 31 Table 11 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Albania, 2010-2021 ................................................................................................................ 31 Table 12 Required Volume of Storage of Compulsory Stocks, Albania, 20102021 ........................................................................................................ 31 Table 13 Crude Oil Pipelines, Albania ........................................................... 33 Table 14 Crude Oil and Intermediate Products Storage Capacities of ARMO, Albania .................................................................................................... 34 Table 15 Petroleum Products Storage Capacities, Albania ........................... 34 Table 16 Emergency Oil Stocks, Albania, 2010 ............................................. 35 Table 17 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage, Albania, 2010-2021 ................................................................................. 38 Table 18 Needed Investment in Crude Oil and Oil Products Purchase, Albania, 2010-2020 ................................................................................. 38 Table 19 Storage Tank Modernisation Plan, Albania, 2010-2020 .................. 38 Table 20 Storage Tank Construction Plan, Albania, 2010-2020 .................... 38 Table 21 Planned Costs (Storage Capacities, Crude Oil and Products Procurement and Operational Costs), Albania, 2010-2020 .................... 39 Table 22 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, BiH, 20092020 ........................................................................................................ 47 Table 23 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, BiH, 2009-2020 ....................................................................................... 48 Table 24 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, BiH, 2009-2020........ 48 Table 25 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, BiH, 2009-2020 .... 48 Table 26 Stockholding Obligation According to Average Daily Net Imports, BiH, 2010-2021 ....................................................................................... 49 Table 27 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, BiH, 2010-2021 ..... 49 Table 28 Required Volume of Storage for Compulsory Stocks, BiH, 20102021 ........................................................................................................ 49 Table 29 Crude Oil and Intermediate Products Storage Capacities in Bosanski Brod Refinery, BiH .................................................................................. 51 Table 30 Storage Capacities for Petroleum Products, BiH ............................ 51

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Table 31 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage, BiH, 2010-2020............................................................................................... 53 Table 32 Needed Investment in Crude Oil and Oil Products Purchase, BiH, 2010-2020............................................................................................... 53 Table 33 Storage Tank Modernisation Plan, BiH, 2010-2020 ........................ 54 Table 34 Storage Tank Construction Plan, BiH, 2010-2020 .......................... 54 Table 35 Planned Costs (Storage Capacities, Crude Oil and Products Procurement and Operational Costs), BiH, 2010-2020 ........................... 54 Table 36 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum, Croatia, 2009-2020 62 Table 37 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, Croatia, 2009-2020 ................................................................................. 62 Table 38 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Croatia, 2009-2020 .. 62 Table 39 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Croatia, 2009-2020 ................................................................................................................ 63 Table 40 Stockholding Obligation According to Average Daily Net Imports, Croatia, 2010-2021 ................................................................................. 63 Table 41 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Croatia, 2010-2021 63 Table 42 Required Volume of Storage for Compulsory Stocks, Croatia, 20102021 ........................................................................................................ 63 Table 43 Crude Oil and Semi Products Storage Capacities in Croatia .......... 65 Table 44 Petroleum Products Storage Capacities, Croatia ............................ 66 Table 45 LPG Storage Capacities, Croatia .................................................... 67 Table 46 Emergency Stocks Held by HANDA, Croatia .................................. 68 Table 47 Emergency Stocks Held by the Industry, Croatia ............................ 68 Table 48 Coverage of Days of Consumption, Croatia .................................... 68 Table 49 Croatian Capacity Requirements .................................................... 69 Table 50 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, FYR Macedonia, 2009-2020 ........................................................................... 77 Table 51 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, FYR Macedonia, 2009-2020 ................................................................... 78 Table 52 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, FYR Macedonia, 20092020 ........................................................................................................ 78 Table 53 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, FYR Macedonia, 2009-2020............................................................................................... 78 Table 54 Stockholding Obligations According to Average Daily Net Imports, FYR Macedonia, 2010-2021 ................................................................... 79 Table 55 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, FYR Macedonia, 2010-2021............................................................................................... 79 Table 56 Required Volume of Storage for Compulsory Stocks, FYR Macedonia, 2010-2021 ........................................................................... 79 Table 57 Petroleum Products Storage Capacities, FYR Macedonia .............. 82 Table 58 Emergency Stocks Held by OKTA Refinery, FYR Macedonia ........ 83 Table 59 Emergency Stocks Held by Makpetrol, FYR Macedonia ................. 83 Table 60 Emergency Stocks Held by Lukoil, FYR Macedonia ....................... 83 Table 61 Total Quantity of Emergency Stocks held in FYR Macedonia ......... 83 Table 62 Coverage of Days of Consumption, FYR Macedonia...................... 84
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Table 63 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage, FYR Macedonia, 2010-2021 ........................................................................... 87 Table 64 Needed Investment in Crude Oil and Products Purchase, FYR Macedonia, 2010-2020 ........................................................................... 87 Table 65 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, Moldova, 2008-2020............................................................................................... 95 Table 66 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, Moldova, 2008-2020 ............................................................................... 96 Table 67 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Moldova, 2008-2020 96 Table 68 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Moldova, 2008-2020 ................................................................................................................ 96 Table 69 Stockholding Obligations According to Average Daily Net Imports, Moldova, 2009-2021 ............................................................................... 97 Table 70 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Moldova, 2009-2021 ................................................................................................................ 97 Table 71 Required Volume of Storage for Compulsory Stocks, Moldova, 20092021 ........................................................................................................ 97 Table 72 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage Capacities Construction, Moldova, 2010-2020 ....................................... 99 Table 73 Needed Investment in Crude Oil and Products Purchase, Moldova, 2010-2020............................................................................................. 100 Table 74 Storage Tank Construction Plan, Moldova, 2010-2020 ................. 100 Table 75 Planned Costs (Storage Capacities, Crude Oil and Products Procurement and Operational Costs), Moldova, 2010-2020 ................. 100 Table 76 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, Montenegro 2009-2020............................................................................................. 105 Table 77 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, Montenegro, 2009-2020 ....................................................................... 105 Table 78 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Montenegro, 20092020 ...................................................................................................... 106 Table 79 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Montenegro, 20092020 ...................................................................................................... 106 Table 80 Stockholding Obligations According to Average Daily Net Imports, Montenegro, 2010-2021 ....................................................................... 106 Table 81 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Montenegro, 20102021 ...................................................................................................... 106 Table 82 Required Volume of Storage for Compulsory Stocks, Montenegro, 2010-2021............................................................................................. 107 Table 83 Petroleum Products Storage Capacities, Montenegro .................. 108 Table 84 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage, Montenegro, 2010-2020 ....................................................................... 110 Table 85 Needed Investment in Oil Products Purchase, Montenegro, 20102020 ...................................................................................................... 110 Table 86 Storage Tank Modernisation Plan, Montenegro, 2010-2020 ......... 110 Table 87 Storage Tank Construction Plan, Montenegro, 2010-2020 ........... 111

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Table 88 Planned Costs (Storage Capacities, Crude Oil and Products Procurement and Operational Costs), Montenegro, 2010-2020 ........... 111 Table 89 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, Serbia, 2009-2020............................................................................................. 118 Table 90 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, Serbia, 2009-2020 ................................................................................ 118 Table 91 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Serbia, 2009-2020 . 119 Table 92 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Serbia, 2009-2020 .............................................................................................................. 119 Table 93 Stockholding Obligation According to Average Daily Net Imports, Serbia, 2010-2021 ................................................................................ 119 Table 94 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Serbia, 2010-2021 .............................................................................................................. 119 Table 95 Required Volume of Storage of Compulsory Stocks, Serbia, 20102021 ...................................................................................................... 120 Table 96 Transnafta Pipeline Transportation System, Serbia ...................... 121 Table 97 Crude Oil and Semi Products Storage Capacity, Serbia ............... 121 Table 98 Petroleum Products Storage Capacities, Serbia ........................... 122 Table 99 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage, Serbia, 2010-2021 ................................................................................ 125 Table 100 Required Investment in Oil Product Purchases, Serbia, 2010-2020 .............................................................................................................. 125 Table 101 Storage Tank Construction Plan, Serbia, 2010-2020 .................. 125 Table 102 Planned Costs (Storage Capacities, Crude Oil and Products Procurement and Operational Costs), Serbia, 2010-2020 .................... 125 Table 103 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, UNMIK, 2009-2020............................................................................................. 131 Table 104 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, UNMIK, 2009-2020 ............................................................................... 131 Table 105 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, UNMIK, 2009-2020 .............................................................................................................. 131 Table 106 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, UNMIK, 2009-2020 .............................................................................................................. 132 Table 107 Stockholding Obligation According to Average Daily Net Imports, UNMIK, 2010-2021 ............................................................................... 132 Table 108 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, UNMIK, 2010-2021 .............................................................................................................. 132 Table 109 Required Volume of Storage for Compulsory Stocks, UNMIK, 20102021 ...................................................................................................... 132 Table 110 Storage Capacities for Oil Products ............................................ 134 Table 111 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage, UNMIK, 2010-2021 ............................................................................... 136 Table 112 Needed Investment in Oil Products Purchase, UNMIK, 2010-2020 .............................................................................................................. 136 Table 113 Storage Tank Modernisation Plan, UNMIK, 2010-2020 .............. 136 Table 114 Storage Tank Construction Plan, UNMIK, 2010-2020 ................. 136
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Table 115 Planned Costs (Storage Capacities, Crude Oil and Products Procurement and Operational Costs), UNMIK, 2010-2020 ................... 136 Table 116 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, Georgia, 2009-2020............................................................................................. 143 Table 117 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, Georgia, 2009-2020 .............................................................................. 144 Table 118 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Georgia, 2009-2020 .............................................................................................................. 144 Table 119 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Georgia, 20092020 ...................................................................................................... 144 Table 120 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Georgia, 2010-2020 .............................................................................................................. 145 Table 121 Required Volume of Storage of Compulsory Stocks, Georgia, 20102021 ...................................................................................................... 145 Table 122 Georgia Storage Capacity ........................................................... 146 Table 123 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage, Georgia, 2010-2020 .............................................................................. 148 Table 124 Georgia Oil Product Purchase .................................................... 148 Table 125 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, Turkey, 2009-2020............................................................................................. 154 Table 126 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, Turkey, 2009-2020................................................................................ 155 Table 127 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Turkey, 2009-2020 .............................................................................................................. 155 Table 128 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Turkey, 2009-2020 .............................................................................................................. 155 Table 129 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Turkey, 2009-2020 .............................................................................................................. 156 Table 130 Required Volume of Storage of Compulsory Stocks, Turkey, 20092020 ...................................................................................................... 156 Table 131 Storage Capacity ........................................................................ 157 Table 132 Turkish Industry Stock Holding Requirements ............................ 159 Table 133 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage, Turkey, 2010-2020................................................................................ 160 Table 134 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, Ukraine, 2009-2020............................................................................................. 166 Table 135 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, Ukraine, 2009-2020 .............................................................................. 166 Table 136 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Ukraine, 2009-2020 .............................................................................................................. 166 Table 137 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Ukraine, 2009-2020 .............................................................................................................. 167 Table 138 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Ukraine, 2009-2020 .............................................................................................................. 167 Table 139 Required Volume of Storage of Compulsory Stocks, Ukraine, 20092020 ...................................................................................................... 167
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Table 140 Ukraine Ports & Terminals .......................................................... 167 Table 141 Storage Capacity ........................................................................ 168 Table 142 Refineries .................................................................................... 168 Table 143 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage, Ukraine 2010-2020 ............................................................................... 169 Table 144 Commodity Purchase Capital Expenditure, Ukraine ................... 169 Table 145 EU Bilateral Emergency Oil Stocks Agreements ......................... 175 Table 146 Oil Production, Albania, 2007-2020 ............................................ 184 Table 147 Crude Oil Import and Export, Albania, 2007-2020 ...................... 184 Table 148 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Albania, 2007-2020 ....... 184 Table 149 Refinery Own Use, Albania, 2007-2020 ...................................... 184 Table 150 Petroleum Product Imports, Albania, 2007-2020 ........................ 184 Table 151 Petroleum Product Exports, Albania, 2007-2020 ........................ 185 Table 152 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Albania, 2007-2020 .............................................................................................................. 185 Table 153 Crude Oil Import, BiH, 2007-2020 ............................................... 186 Table 154 Net Production of Petroleum Products, BiH, 2007-2020 ............. 186 Table 155 Refinery Own Use, BiH, 2007-2020 ............................................ 186 Table 156 Petroleum Product Imports, BiH, 2007-2020............................... 186 Table 157 Petroleum Product Exports, BiH, 2007-2020 .............................. 187 Table 158 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, BiH, 2007-2020 187 Table 159 Oil and Condensate Production, Croatia, 2007-2020.................. 188 Table 160 Crude Oil Import, Croatia, 2007-2020 ......................................... 188 Table 161 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Croatia, 2007-2020 ....... 188 Table 162 Refinery Own Use, Croatia, 2007-2020 ...................................... 188 Table 163 Petroleum Product Imports, Croatia, 2007-2020 ......................... 189 Table 164 Petroleum Product Exports, Croatia, 2007-2020......................... 189 Table 165 International Bunkers, Croatia, 2007-2020.................................. 189 Table 166 Stock Changes, Croatia, 2007-2020 ........................................... 190 Table 167 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Croatia, 2007-2020 .............................................................................................................. 190 Table 168 Crude Oil Import, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020 ........................... 191 Table 169 Net production of Petroleum Products, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020 .............................................................................................................. 191 Table 170 Refinery Own Use, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020 ........................ 191 Table 171 Petroleum Product Imports, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020 ........... 191 Table 172 Petroleum Product Exports, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020........... 192 Table 173 Stock Changes, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020 ............................. 192 Table 174 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020............................................................................................. 192 Table 175 Crude Oil Production, Moldova, 2007-2020 ................................ 193 Table 176 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Moldova, 2007-2020 ..... 193 Table 177 Petroleum Product Imports, Moldova, 2007-2020 ....................... 193 Table 178 Petroleum Product Exports, Moldova, 2007-2020....................... 194 Table 179 Stock Changes, Moldova, 2007-2020 ......................................... 194

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Table 180 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Moldova, 20072020 ...................................................................................................... 194 Table 181 Petroleum Product Imports, Montenegro, 2007-2020 ................. 195 Table 182 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Montenegro, 20072020 ...................................................................................................... 195 Table 183 Oil and Condensate Production, Serbia, 2007-2020 ................... 196 Table 184 Crude Oil Import, Serbia, 2007-2020 .......................................... 196 Table 185 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Serbia, 2007-2020......... 196 Table 186 Refinery Own Use, Serbia, 2007-2020 ....................................... 196 Table 187 Petroleum Product Imports, Serbia, 2007-2020 .......................... 197 Table 188 Petroleum Product Exports, Serbia, 2007-2020 .......................... 197 Table 189 Stock Changes, Serbia, 2007-2020 ............................................ 197 Table 190 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Serbia, 2007-2020 .............................................................................................................. 198 Table 191 Petroleum Product Imports, UNMIK, 2007-2020 ......................... 199 Table 192 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, UNMIK, 2007-2020 .............................................................................................................. 199 Table 193 Georgia Petroleum Product Consumption, 2007-2020 ............... 200 Table 194 Georgian Domestic Petroleum Product Import, 2007-2020......... 200 Table 195 Oil and Condensate Production, Turkey, 2007-2020 .................. 201 Table 196 Crude Oil Import, Turkey, 2007-2020 .......................................... 201 Table 197 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Serbia, 2007-2020......... 201 Table 198 Refinery Own Use, Turkey, 2007-2020 ....................................... 201 Table 199 Petroleum Product Imports, Turkey, 2007-2020 ......................... 202 Table 200 Petroleum Product Exports, Turkey, 2007-2020 ......................... 202 Table 201 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Turkey, 2007-2020 .............................................................................................................. 202 Table 202 GDP Data Used in Economic Forecasting .................................. 204 Table 203 Albania MAED Inputs .................................................................. 205 Table 204 MAED Inputs BiH ........................................................................ 206 Table 205 MAED Inputs Croatia .................................................................. 207 Table 206 MAED Inputs FYR Macedonia .................................................... 208 Table 207 MAED Inputs Moldova ................................................................ 209 Table 208 MAED Inputs Montenegro ........................................................... 210 Table 209 MAED Inputs Serbia ................................................................... 211 Table 210 MAED Inputs UNMIK .................................................................. 212

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Abbreviations
APETRA API ARA ARMO ASMR bbl BE BiH BTC CHEM CIA cif CP CSE CY CZ DE DK DORS dwt EC EIHP EE EL EN590 ES EU FI FO fob FR FYR GIFP HANDA HRK HU HUSA IAEA Euro The Belgian stockholding agency American Petroleum Institute Antwerp, Rotterdam, Amsterdam Albanian Refining and Marketing of Oil The Czech Administration of State Material Reserves barrel Belgium Bosnia and Herzegovina Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyan chemicals Central Intelligence Agency cost, insurance, freight Contracting Parties Central Stockholding Entity (or Agency) Cyprus Czech Republic Germany Denmark Downstream Oil Reporting System dead weight tonnage European Commission Energy Institute Hrvoye Pozar Estonia Greece European Norm 590, a standard European grade of diesel fuel Spain European Union Finland fuel oil free on board France Former Yugoslav Republic Giurgiulesti International Free Port The Croatian stockholding agency Croatian Kuna Hungary The Hungarian Association of Crude Oil and Oil Products Stockpiling International Atomic Energy Agency

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IE IEA IEJE INA IT JANAF JP-4 JP Transnafta KKKSz km kt/y l LPG LT LU LV m3 MAED Med MEDEE MESSAGE MKD MOL MT Mt/y NESO NGL NIS NL NORA OKTA OMV PET PPRS prsn PT RSD
Ireland International Energy Agency Institute Economique et Juridique de lEnergie Industrija Nafte d. d., a Croatian oil company Italy Jadranski naftovod, a Croatian pipeline company A type of naphtha-based jet fuel, also Jet Propellant A Serbian pipeline company The former Hungarian Association of Crude Oil and Oil Products Stockpiling, now called HUSA kilometre thousand tonnes per year litre liquefied petroleum gas Lithuania Luxembourg Latvia cubic metre Model for Analysis of Energy Demand Mediterranean Modele dEvolution de la Demande dEnergie a sectoral end-use type energy demand model Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact Macedonia Denar Magyar Olaj- s Gzipari, an Hungarian oil & gas company Malta million tonnes per year The Turkish National Emergency Sharing Organisation natural gas liquid Naftna Industrija Srbije, a Serbian oil company Netherlands National Oil Reserves Agency (in Ireland) An oil refinery in the Macedonia, owned by Hellenic Petroleum sterreichischen Minerallverwaltung Aktiengesellschaft, an Austrian oil company petroleum products Petroleum Production Reporting System person Portugal Serbian Dinar
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SE SI SK SOCAR t tkm TNK-BP
toe UL95 UK UNMIK US$ VEG
Sweden Slovenia Slovak Republic State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic tonnes Tonne - kilometre Company formed by the merger of British Petroleums Russian oil and gas assets and the oil and gas assets of Alfa, Access/Renova group, the latter being known as Tyumen Nefte Kompany (Tyumen Oil Company) tonnes of oil equivalent Unleaded 95, unleaded gasoline with a research octane number of 95 United Kingdom (of Great Britain and Northern Ireland) United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo United States dollar vegetable oils

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1. Executive Summary
This is the Final Report for the study on Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level. The study has found: All the Beneficiaries need, to some extent, to enhance their crude oil and petroleum product stockholding systems in order to be in compliance with EU Directive 2009/119/EC. All Beneficiaries need to make some changes to their legal and regulatory framework to comply with the Directive. There are issues in most countries concerning the monitoring and transparent reporting of emergency stockholding and that regulations and systems will need to be developed in order to be compliant with the Directive. Most Beneficiaries should be able to become compliant with the Directive by 2020 through the adoption of a phased programme of changes and investment
This report is based on analysis and benchmarking of the information gathered from the Beneficiaries. A summary of the findings is shown in Table 1.

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Table 1 Summary of Compliance Status with Directive 2009/119/EC

Required Investments (Million ) Total Investment (Million ) CSE status 2011-2020 126.3 126.3 Needs to be set up Needs to be set up HANDA in operation Directorate in place 208.0 75.8 Needs to be set up Needs to be set up Minor Moderate Minor Minor Major no relevant laws in place Moderate Legislative changes required
Required Volume (thousand m3) Storage modernisation 140 182 A more detailed study has been carried out by HANDA 50.0 78.0 67.2 9.3 6.5 60.0 130.0 80.0 130.0 86.2 16.8 212.0 21.0 13.4 91.9 New storage construction Storage modernisation Purchase of crude oil and products
Beneficiary
New storage construction 97 374 600* 244* 327* 38.8
Albania
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Croatia
FYR Macedonia
Moldova
Montenegro
Serbia
837.0*
172.0
370.0
542.0
Government department fulfilling the role 100.0 359.0 156.8 247.2 Needs to be set up Needs to be set up
Moderate Major
UNMIK 906.0* 218.0
223.0
34.0
53.5
3.3
Georgia
Major no relevant laws in place 4,800.0 3,300.0 7,550.0 5,500.0 NESO in operation Believed to be moderate and underway Data withheld
Turkey 9,225* 2,200.0
11,500.0*
2,750.0
Ukraine
*Indicates a requirement to build new facilities but does not include possible utilisation of existing storage facilities
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In the course of the study the Consultant came to the following conclusions: Data reporting in general needs to improve for technical compliance to be achieved under the Directive The Beneficiaries are more inclined to setting up Central Stockholding Entities rather than obligating operating companies which, when tried, has caused reporting and compliance issues There are concerns about the costs of compliance with the Directive and there is a growing of awareness of the significant planning required to ensure compliance in terms of regulation, reporting and physical stockholding There are strong reasons for considering a regional approach to Emergency Oil Stockholding in terms of cost minimisation but significant further analysis and negotiation would be required to implement such a regional approach In order to increase security of oil supply in the region the Consultant recommends establishment of a Coordination Entity for oil and petroleum products consisting of representatives of the Beneficiaries and chaired by the Energy Community. The main tasks of the Coordination Entity would be monitoring of oil market and establishment of coordinated emergency response procedures. All the Beneficiaries have a realistic chance of being compliant with the Directive by 2020.

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2. Introduction
This is the Final Report for the study on Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level. The study covered the eight Contracting Parties (CP) of the Energy Community (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, FYR of Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Serbia and UNMIK) and three Observer countries (Georgia, Turkey and Ukraine), further called "Beneficiaries". Petroleum Development Consultants (PDC) conducted this study with the Energy Institute Hrvoye Pozar (EIHP) of Croatia. The key objectives of this study were: Recommendations on the crude oil and petroleum product stockholding systems for the Beneficiaries, in accordance with EU Directive 2009/119/EC Determine at a high level the stock holding obligation and costs for each Beneficiary in the time frame of 2011 to 2020 The development of a work programme for compliance with Directive 2009/119/EC by the Contracting Parties Identification of issues and problems facing the Beneficiaries in achieving compliance with the Directive and the development of proposed solutions Examine the possibility of a regional approach to coordinating stock holding activities
The analysis and benchmarking in this study was heavily reliant on information gathered from and provided by the Beneficiaries. The findings of the study were presented to the Beneficiaries at a meeting in Vienna on 1 March 2011 and comments and feedback received subsequently have been included in this Final Report.

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3. Methodologies
This section gives the methodology used for the forecasting of the demand scenarios, calculation of the stocking obligations, the initial estimation of facilities construction and operating costs and explanation of the forward pricing scenario for crude oil and petroleum products.
3.1. Methodology for Energy Demand Forecasting

Models prepared by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) were used to predict demand. The models MAED (Model for Analysis of Energy Demand) and MESSAGE (Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact) are particularly suitable for regional and scenario analysis. The MAED model is used to project useful/final energy demand. Useful demand is an input to MESSAGE model. Energy systems are modelled and optimised using MESSAGE model. Figure 1 shows the main interaction in the planning process and shows the use of the MAED and MESSAGE models.
Figure 1 Planning Process Interaction
Social and Economic Perspective

Development drivers (economy, population,)
Assesment of natural resources
Assesment of energy needs
MAED model
Technology choices
Exogenous assumptions
Analysis of energy supply options
MESSAGE model
Regional exchange
Environmental burdens and mitigation
Financial and other resource requirements
Sustainable energy strategy Investment schedule, energy supply prices, fuel consumption, emissions,
The methodology of the MAED model was originally developed by. B. Chateau and B. Lapillonne of the Institute Economique et Juridique de lEnergie (IEJE) of the University of Grenoble, France, and was presented as
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the MEDEE model. The IAEA adopted a simplified version of this model (MEDEE-2) and incorporated important modifications to make it more suitable for application in the developing countries, and it was named as the MAED model. The MAED model evaluates future energy demand based on medium to longterm scenarios of socio-economic, technological and demographic developments. The model relates systematically the specific energy demand for producing various goods and services identified in the model to the corresponding social, economic and technological factors that affect this demand. Energy demand is disaggregated into a large number of end-use categories; each one corresponding to a given service or to the production of a certain product. The nature and level of the demand for goods and services are a function of several determining factors including population growth number of inhabitants per dwelling number of electrical appliances used in households peoples mobility and preferences for transportation modes national priorities for the development of certain industries or economic sectors the evolution of the efficiency of certain types of equipment market penetration of new technologies or energy forms The expected future trends for these determining factors, which constitute scenarios, are exogenously1 introduced. An understanding of these determining factors permits the evaluation of the various categories of energy demand for each economic sector to be considered. The total energy demand for each end-use category is aggregated into four main energy consumer sectors
1
industry (including agriculture, construction, mining and manufacturing) transportation commercial residential
In an economic model, an exogenous change is one that comes from outside the model and is unexplained by the model. For example, in the simple supply and demand model, a change in consumer tastes or preferences is unexplained by the model and also leads to endogenous changes in demand that lead to changes in the equilibrium price. Put another way, an exogenous change involves an alteration of a variable that is autonomous, i.e., unaffected by the workings of the model.

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The model provides a systematic accounting framework for evaluating the effect on energy demand during a change in economics or in the standard of living of the population. The starting point for using the MAED model is construction of base year energy consumption patterns within the model. This requires compiling and reconciling necessary data from different sources, obtaining and calculating various input parameters and adjusting them to establish a base year energy balance. This helps to calibrate the model to the countrys specific situation. The next step is developing future scenarios, specific to a countrys situation and objectives. The scenarios can be sub-divided into two sub-scenarios: The socio-economic system describing the fundamental characteristics of the social and economic evolution of the country The other related to the technological factors affecting the calculation of energy demand, for example, the efficiency and market penetration potential of each alternative energy form.
The key to plausible and useful scenarios is internal consistency of assumptions, especially for social, economic and technological evolution. A good understanding of the dynamic interplay among various driving forces or determining factors is necessary. The model output, i.e. future energy demand, is just a reflection of these scenario assumptions. The evaluation of output and the modification of initial assumptions is the basic process by which reasonable results are derived. The model focuses exclusively on energy demand, and even more specifically on demand for specified energy services. When various energy forms, i.e. electricity, fossil fuels, etc., are competing for a given end-use category of energy demand, this demand is calculated first in terms of useful energy and then converted into final energy, taking into account market penetration and the efficiency of each alternative energy source, both specified as scenario parameters. Non-substitutable energy uses, such as motor fuels for cars, electricity for specific uses (electrolysis, lighting etc.), are calculated directly in terms of final energy. Demand for fossil fuels is therefore not broken down in terms of coal, gas or oil, because this energy supply mix largely depends on the technological possibilities of supply and relative prices of these fuels, aspects that are outside the scope of the MAED analysis. The substitution of fossil fuels by alternative energy forms (i.e., solar, district heat, etc.) is nevertheless estimated due to the importance of the structural changes in energy demand that these energy forms may introduce in the future. Since these substitutions

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will be essentially determined by policy decisions, they are to be taken into account at the stage of formulating and writing the development scenarios.
Figure 2 MAED Model Main Inputs and Outputs
3.2. Stock Holding Obligation Calculation Methodology

The stock holding requirement is determined for each country according to the Emergency Oil Stock Obligation Directive 2009/119/EC. This requires that Member States shall ensure that the total oil stocks maintained at all times within the Community for their benefit correspond, at the very least, to 90 days of average daily net imports or 61 days of average daily inland consumption, whichever of the two quantities is greater. The average daily net imports is calculated on the basis of the crude oil equivalent of imports which is obtained by calculating the sum of the net imports of crude oil, NGL, refinery feedstocks and adding this to the net imports of all other petroleum products, excluding naphtha, adjusted to take account of stock changes and multiplied by a factor of 1.065. From the sum of the net imports of crude oil, NGL, refinery feedstocks a deduction is made of 4% to account for naphtha yield. Inland consumption is the sum of the aggregate observed gross inland deliveries of the following products: motor gasoline aviation gasoline gasoline-type jet fuel (naphtha-type jet fuel or JP4) kerosene-type jet fuel other kerosene gas/diesel oil (distillate fuel oil) fuel oil (high sulphur content and low sulphur content)

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The crude oil equivalent of inland consumption is calculated by multiplying the sum of the aggregate observed gross inland deliveries by a factor of 1.2. The emergency stocks must take the form of at least the greater of 30 days of products within saleable categories and there is assumed to be a requirement to allow for 10% of the stocks to be unavailable due to technical problems such as remaining in tank bottoms and being unavailable for drawdown. Modelling of emergency stocks obligation in countries with refineries assumed maximal amount of crude oil was because the building of storage capacities for crude oil and storing of crude oil is cheapest than those of petroleum products, as well as the price of crude oil itself. On the other hand, countries with no domestic refinery were assumed to hold the entire obligation in petroleum products. Amounts of petroleum products held were estimated on basis of the inland consumption of main products (motor gasoline, kerosene and jet fuel, gas/diesel oil, residual fuel oil). One must bear in mind that each country has to set up its own structure of emergency stocks and that the structure of stocks presented in the study is by no means binding for Beneficiaries. In estimating the required storage, the largest calculated required volume of storage for each individual petroleum product and crude oil in the modelled period is taken and rounded up to give the required volume of storage. This approach is then taken forward to calculate capital investments in compulsory oil storage capacities. It is important to note that these calculated volumes and capital expenditures do not include the possible utilisation of existing storage capacities unless the Consultant assessed that some volume of storages need modernisation. In other words, the calculation assumes that storage for all the required stocks must be built in addition to existing storage capacities. Biofuels Directive 2009/119/EC recognises that biofuels are becoming increasingly required in the energy mix of the EU and subsequently the Energy Community and other legislation and targets (e.g. the 20-20-20 Scheme) require increased use of biofuels within a 10 year time frame. Under Directive 2009/119/EC, when calculating the stock holding obligations, biofuels shall be taken into account when blended and consumed with transport fuels. When accounting for the actual stockholding, biofuels should only be counted as part of the physical stockholding where they are blended to the appropriate specification or there is the intention and capability to blend them to required specification.

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3.3. Data Reporting Requirements

Directive 2009/119/EC sets out the requirements for data collection which are required to calculate the stock holding obligation as set out in Section 3.2 (which is covered by EC Regulation 1099/2008) and also requirements for reporting actual stock levels. The data reports from the facilities and companies holding the stocks should be collated by one central body. This should be done by an appropriate government department or by a Central Stock Holding Entity where one has been created. The reporting requirements are summarised here: Specific Stocks (Those held by a Central Stockholding Entity) and consisting of certain fuel types) must be catalogued in terms of volume and location A statistical summary of Specific Stocks must be submitted to the Commission monthly giving, location, volumes and days of supply equivalent of the Specific Stocks based on the last day of the previous calendar month A statistical summary of Commercial Stocks must also be submitted to the Commission monthly Commercial statistical summaries must be aggregated to protect commercial confidentiality An annual register of stocks must be kept and continuously updated
It is important to note that the reporting of inventories must happened promptly and reports must be processed and submitted to the commission within the following calendar month to which they relate. The Commission will collate and store all submitted data and make available digitally as appropriate.
3.4. Data Collection and Processing

In order to comply with Directive 2009/119/EC, each Beneficiary will have to collate and process large amounts of data from many different sources. The processing has definitive time scales which mean it must be efficiently conducted and not place too greater burden on the companies or the body which is responsible for the data collection and processing. In order the do this, EU Member States have implemented electronic reporting systems to collate the data and produce reports the required reports both to go to the European Commission and also for emergency planning purposes. The collated data can then be fed into models to determine the obligation for holding emergency stocks. The data are input electronically by companies. This is advantageous as the data are only typed out once, and are already in a standardised format and easy to use.
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The United Kingdom operates two systems which are used in the collection of data for calculation stockholding obligations: The Petroleum Production Reporting System (PPRS). PPRS is an administrative data collection system that requires licensees operating on the UK Continental Shelf to submit monthly details of their hydrocarbon (both oil and gas) production to the Department. PPRS is used to report flows, stocks and of crude oils and Natural Gas Liquids from field level through to final disposal. It is a condition of operation on the UKCS that companies submit monthly returns to government. Downstream oil information, including information on the transformation of crude oil into petroleum products at refineries, imports and exports of petroleum products, and the delivery of these products into consumption by various users, is collected through the Downstream Oil Reporting System (DORS). DORS was developed in cooperation with industry.
In order to comply with DORS, refiners and importers have to submit completed forms to the Department of Energy and Climate change on a monthly basis. Examples of the forms can be seen in Figure 3 and Figure 4.

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Figure 3 Refiners Data Collection Sheet
Source: UK Emergency Oil Stocks - A guide to the measures the UK adopts to meet its international obligations to maintain emergency oil stocks

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Figure 4 Importers Data Collection Form
Source: UK Emergency Oil Stocks - A guide to the measures the UK adopts to meet its international obligations to maintain emergency oil stocks

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3.5. Facilities Capital and Operating Cost Estimation

Capital construction costs for the required investment in storage capacity are estimated on the basis of the results of the Consultants survey and experience of terminal and tankage construction projects implemented in Europe in the recent past. Average costs of these projects amounted to 240 /m3 for petroleum products and 200 /m3 for crude oil. They include all the costs such as land acquisition, construction work, state fees, the necessary infrastructure, ground works and labour costs. Of course, there is potential for variation of these costs for the different countries which will for some countries have an effect on the total net investment required. It is the Consultants aim to give an outline of the approximate scale of the likely costs and definitive engineering studies for each country should be undertaken. The Consultant does however note that there is potential for significant deviation from the average price of construction for the jet fuel tanks because of the small volume required. However, given that their share in total storage capacity is relatively small, there should be relatively little impact on the total estimated investment requirements.
Table 2 Assumed Tankage Construction Costs
Commodity Crude Oil Petroleum Products

Source: PDC & EIHP Analysis
Cost ( / m3) 200 240
The Consultant has also taken an average of normal operating costs in Europe as an approximation of operating costs for emergency oil stocks storage. Operating costs used in this study present the average operating costs attained at the existing terminals for crude oil and petroleum products. They include terminal maintenance costs, labour costs, energy costs, fees and maintenance of stocks and a break-down of the costs used is given in Table 3.
Table 3 Storage Operating Cost Estimates
Input Maintenance Salaries Energy Fees Stocks maintenance (e.g. Cycling) Total
Source: PDC & EIHP Analysis
Cost ( / m3) 3.0 4.0 0.4 3.8 4.0 15.2

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Each country has to carry out its own detailed analysis of storage capacities as well as economic and financial analyses of existing or future stockholding system. The Beneficiaries has to be aware that there are a number of ways to achieve the obligation of stockholding. There are two basic models of stockholding system. One of them is an agency or a similar independent body that would take care of all aspects of emergency stockholding and another one is industry holding emergency stocks. There are also a number of variations in between that may be short term in a transitional period or long term. Organisational and financial aspects of stockholding presented in the study are only one of the many ways of achieving the obligatory targets and it should be used as a general guideline for countries in their effort of implementing the Directive 2009/119/EC. The competent institutions could also choose to store part of the obligation in products/crude oil another country through a bilateral agreement or to hold part of the obligation in form of tickets. In summary, there are several possibilities to achieve 90/61 days of stocks: to build new storage for emergency oil stocks to store large quantity of stocks in form of crude oil in the refineries or coastal terminals to lease existing storage capacities from the private companies to delegate part of the stocks to operators to delegate part of the stocks to Central Stockholding Entities in another country/countries (bilateral agreement) to include tickets different combination of above possibilities
Each country should assess the best way of holding the emergency stocks whether it is the cheapest, the quickest or safest way for it. The most suitable way of stockholding depends on a numerous factors such as financing possibilities, current situation of infrastructure, number of traders, presence of domestic refinery, time targets, future projects in oil sector, etc. The manner of holding stocks is also able to be changed when conditions change.
3.6. Forward Crude Oil & Product Pricing

In order to provide a cost basis for the acquisition of petroleum products to meet the stock holding requirement in each country, it is important to have a reasonable view on what future prices may be. It is impossible to know with any certainty what prices will be several years in to the future. However, a common approach to this problem is to plan based on assumptions that future product prices will be linked to each other and to the price of crude oil in a way that reflects historical trends. Analysis of historical prices shows that product-to-crude oil and product-toproduct ratios and differentials (sometimes referred to as crack spreads) tend
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to follow fairly consistent patterns and trends. These pricing relationships tend to be reasonably consistent over a wide range of absolute crude oil prices. This feature is particularly useful as crude oil price has proved to be particularly volatile, with a range in recent years from about US$10/bbl to over US$150/bbl. The difficultly in predicting oil price beyond a relatively short period into the future has proved problematic to all oil industry players. This has given rise to the approach of developing oil price scenarios which side-step this problem. This is the approach adopted for the analysis in this study. It is important to note that there is no one correct view of where oil prices may be in the future. For this study, an oil price scenario has been developed based on US$80/bbl Brent (fob, ARA). Market prices quotations are provided by several organisations and published in various journals. These allow historical analysis of pricing relationships. This applies to different grades of crude oil in different locations as well as to petroleum products. Based on such historical crude oil price relationships, a forecast for Urals crude oil, delivered into the Mediterranean region, has been made that is appropriate to US$80/bbl Brent (fob, ARA). This is approximately US$78/bbl Urals, cif Mediterranean. This is deemed most appropriate for the countries covered in this study as many are close to the Mediterranean and may well process Urals crude oil in their refineries (where they have them). Historical price analysis enables the typical range of pricing ratios and differentials to be established. The chart below demonstrates that product price ratios to crude oil are maintained in a fairly narrow band over time and a wide range of absolute oil price. This pricing analysis is based on cif Med cargo prices.

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Figure 5 Product/Crude Price Ratios

1.80 1.60 Product:crude price ratios 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 LPG UL95 1% FO Naphtha EN590 3.5%FO Jet Gasoil Urals CIF Med $/bbl 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Urals, CIF Med ($/bbl)
Pricing ratios and differentials can evolve over time as a function of market, regulatory and product quality changes. However, these factors have all varied over the last 15 years and still the range of price ratios has remained fairly constant. As a consequence, the forecast used here does not deviate significantly from the recent past. The actual pricing levels for products in each country will differ from the cif Med cargo prices, depending on the specific supply and demand position of each country. Deficit countries will tend to pay slightly more, due to the cost of importing from the Mediterranean, while surplus countries would achieve a price in-country which is typically less that the cif Med cargo price due to the need to export marginal production.

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Table 4 Assumed Product Prices
Product
Gasoline Diesel Jet fuel Gas oil Fuel oil Product Basket Crude Oil
Source: PDC Analysis of publicly available data
Price / Tonne
US$ 750 US$ 710 US$ 740 US$ 710 US$ 450 477 430
A note on data sources: all data presented in tables within this report has come from the Beneficiaries responses to Consultants Questionnaires and the Consultants analysis of that data.

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3.7. Obligation Calculation Model Construction

This section aims to provide a guide to the construction of a spread sheet model for determining the required obligation under Directive 2009/119/EC. The key functions of such a model are outlined here: Gather for each country the following annual data from statistic agencies and from models for future dates: o Domestic crude oil production o Crude oil import o Crude export o Domestic refinery product output o Imports of petroleum products o Exports of petroleum products o Domestic consumption of petroleum products Tabulate the above data and calculate net import/export balance and stock changes. This will create an energy balance for the country in terms of oil and petroleum products The energy balances for the relevant years are then converted to tonnes of oil equivalent (toe). Then both methods of determining the stock holding obligation (i.e. based on imports and domestic consumption) are applied for each year as set out in Section 3.2 The results for both the import and domestic consumption obligation are then compared. The obligation which is the greater amount in toe terms is the obligation which must be met The obligation is then converted from toe back into tonnes. The obligation in tonnes is then converted into a volume in cubic meters using the relevant products density This volume is then rounded up to allow for tank size construction. The capital cost of the tankage is then determined by multiplying the volume of required tankage by the estimated cost per cubic meter The cost of the physical stocks is then determined by multiplying the obligation in tonnes for each product by the relevant price.

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4. The Role of the Central Stockholding Agency

EU Member States have taken different approaches to managing strategic stocks with some setting up Central Stockholding Agencies (CSE), others obligating operating companies (referred to as economic operators in Directive 2009/119/EC) to hold oil stocks and some having the countrys stock holding obligation split between operating companies and a CSE. All three approaches can satisfy the requirements set out in Directive 2009/119/EC. However a CSE is structured, whether as a government department or as a corporate entity, CSEs should satisfy the following criteria: Be a non-profit entity Formed within the Member State or other Member State Have the specific purpose of managing the Member States emergency and specific oil stocks
Where stocks are held by companies as well as a CSE, it is usual for the CSE to also be responsible for monitoring & reporting of oil stocks. It should be noted that whilst the CSE may audit the holdings of economic operators, Directive 2009/119/EC also requires that third parties appointed by the commission may audit oil stocks held by both the CSE and the company. Where the country has elected not to form a CSE and obligates companies to hold emergency stocks, there should be one sole body for collating and reporting stockholding levels.
4.1. CSE Formation and Constitution

Where a country has elected to form a CSE, there is considerable flexibility in how the CSE can be formed and how it can operate. Two contrasting examples from countries that have recently joined the EU are given below in Sections 4.1.1 (Hungary) and 0 (Czech Republic). In Hungary, the CSE is an independent company owned by oil and petroleum companies which is constituted to be non-profit making and holds the oil stocks obligations at least-cost to the member companies. In the Czech Republic the central government controls and funds emergency oil stocks.
4.1.1. Hungary
Hungary is one of the first of the former Eastern Bloc countries to join the European Union and was required to update its emergency oil stock holding policies. In 1991, with the liberalisation of crude oil and petroleum products trading, there was no longer a state-controlled apparatus for ensuring adequate emergency oil stocks. In order to guarantee the provision of these significant stocks, the Hungarian Petroleum Association was formed to include the state oil company MOL and also the Hungarian affiliates of the international oil companies operating in Hungary at that time.

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In 1993, the Hungarian Parliament adopted Act IL/1993 which laid out the requirements for stock piling of oil products. In order to stockpile effectively, the 14 oil companies established the Association of Crude Oil and Oil Products Stockpiling (KKKSz). Now known as HUSA, it is an independent organisation but its actions are controlled as laid down in the Act of 1993 and so acts to ensure Hungarys compliance with storage requirements whilst allowing industry efficiently to stockpile the required quantities. HUSA has the following tasks: Create strategic stocks equal to 90 days of net imports Ensure technical conditions for safe storage Ensure lowest cost operation of the stock piling system Ensure equal burden on all market players
HUSA has the following obligations in terms of what form the emergency oil stocks can take: Crude oil Motor Gasoline Diesel Fuel Maximum 10% of stocks can be heavy fuel oil 90% of stocks must be crude oil and Motor Gasoline / Diesel
In the 1993 Act, it was realised that to build stocks and storage capacity equivalent to 90 days net import levels would be impractical in a short time frame. Hence a schedule of stock building was required such that 20 days of net import levels was required by 31 December 1993, adding 10 days by the end of each subsequent year so that by 31 December 1998 there would be the equivalent of 90 day net import levels as emergency oil stocks,. The emergency stocks were created in two ways: Petroleum Products: Crude: Purchase through bidding Purchase through bidding Toll processing in domestic refinery
The storage of stocks by HUSA is carried out by contracting partners which can be divided into 3 categories:
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Independent market players 100% HUSA owned storage companies Partially HUSA owned storage companies
All facilities that hold strategic stocks must have minimum loading and unloading capacities to allow sufficient flexibility for storage:
Unloading - Rail: minimum 2000 m3/day Loading Rail: minimum 2000 m3/day Road: 1000 m3/day
The financing of the stocks was initially done through a series of tendered, rolling one year loan facilities. Up until 2001, these loans were guaranteed by the government but from then the stocks acted as security for financing needs.
Table 5 HUSA Cash Flows
Storage and Cycling costs Financing costs Operational costs
Expenses 70% 25% 5%
Income Members contribution 100% Dividends from KKKSz companies Potential Source: IEA/China Seminar on Oil Stocks and Emergency Response, Beijing 9-10
December, 2002 - Session 4 IEA Experiences in Building Oil Stockholding Facilities Stockpiling Practice in Hungary
4.1.2. Czech Republic

In the Czech Republic the holding of emergency oil stocks is carried out by the central government. The break-up of Czechoslovakia in 1993 meant that Czech and Slovak reserves were not located where they best served the needs of the two now separate countries. In terms of energy policy and particularly oil stocks, the Czech Republic had two goals: joining the IEA which occurred in February 2001 and achieving EU membership. The emergency oil stocks are owned by the government and financed from the central government budget. To manage and hold these stocks, the Administration of State Material Reserves (ASMR) was created. ASMR has

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the responsibility of monitoring and reporting the condition of emergency oil stocks. There are three main pieces of Czech legislation pertaining to oil stocks:

Act 97/1993 on the ASMR Act 189/1999 oil stocks and procedures Decree 194/2000 Further detail on oil stocks
Act 189/1999 sets out what constitutes a supply interruption which would trigger release of emergency oil stocks by the ASMR and actions and powers which the ASMR may deploy in a supply interruption. These measures can be summarised as: Motoring speed and vehicle restrictions Aviation restrictions Retailing restrictions Rationing Temporary loans of stocks to relieve localised problems
The ASMR also has powers for enforcement in times of supply disruption. ASMR reports to the National Emergency Strategy Organisation (NESO) and agrees basic documentation, approval of procedures and relevant training. The Czech emergency oil stocks are required to be a maximum of 60% crude oil and the rest in products that conform to EU categories. A maximum of 17% may be held abroad under a ticketing arrangement but this requires government approval.
4.2. CSE Operation

CSEs can operate in a variety of ways in terms of ownership, operation and maintenance of emergency stocks and storage tankage. Under Directive 2009/119/EC, tankage maybe: Owned outright by the CSE Owned in part by the CSE (for example joint facilities with companies to reduce costs by increasing scale) Leased from commercial providers Owned by CSEs or companies in other countries Operated by the CSE or third party contractors
Emergency stocks maybe: Owned outright by the CSE

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Held by delegate companies (both within country and in other Member States) Held via ticketing arrangements with the option to buy emergency oil stocks when required (often held with international oil companies).
4.3. CSE Financing

CSEs have a requirement for both initial capital expenditure for the purchasing of stocks and construction of facilities, and ongoing operation expenditure. Options for the Beneficiaries are discussed within each country section of this report but a brief overview of the possible options are provided here with some key points about the two approaches: Central Government Funding: Easy to administer Usually low capital costs Consumers do not contribute proportionally to their consumption Often shields vulnerable consumers such as the energy poor from additional costs Consumer levy on fuel by unit Harder to administer Can have higher capital costs such unless there are government guarantees Proportional contribution by consumers based on consumption Public are aware of the cost of emergency oil stocks In terms of financing the initial cost of the storage, the host government often provides a soft loan or loan guarantee for the capital costs in order to establish the emergency stocks and then further financing is secured against the emergency stocks and the facilities (Germany and Hungary are two EU examples of this approach).

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5. Albania
Albanias geological oil reserves are mostly non-conventional (e.g. heavy, asphalt-resinous and high sulphur) and are estimated at 450 million bbl. Crude oil is produced from seven oil fields in southern Albania. Crude oil production in the last few years amounted to almost twice domestic crude needs. Bankers Petroleum Albania Ltd is currently redeveloping the PatosMarinza oil field through individual well leases from Albpetrol. The company plans phased take-over of Albpetrol areas to allow for an area clean-up and establish full consolidation of existing operations areas under Bankers management. Shut down of Albpetrols facilities and flow lines was scheduled for end of 2010, and complete field take-over and clean-up by 2013. There are two refineries in operation in Albania both belonging to the company ARMO (Albanian Refining and Marketing of Oil), a former stateowned company which was privatised in 2008 with the shareholders being Amra Oil Sha and a consortium of Refinery Associates of Texas, Anika Enterprises & Mercuria Energy Group that holds 85% of the shares. The remaining 15% of shares are owned by the Albanian Government, represented by the Ministry of Economy Trade and Energy. Oil products from the refineries supply about one-third of the domestic market. Recent increases in demand for light products cannot be met by the domestic refineries. Imported motor fuels are cheaper and of better quality than those produced in the domestic refineries and hence most of the petroleum products are imported from Greece and Italy. Significant foreign investment is being made as the potential for increased recovery in existing oil fields is being realised. This indicates a potential for additional output which should benefit the oil refineries where further investments are also planned.
5.1. Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand

The following figures provide a summary of the current and forecast position in Albania based on the methodology outlined in Section 3.1.

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Figure 6 Crude Oil Production, Albania, 2007-2020

2.500
2.000
x 1 000 t
1.500
1.000
500
0 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2015. 2020.
Figure 7 Crude Oil Import and Export, Albania, 2007-2020

200 0 2007. -200 -400 x 1 000 t -600 -800 -1.000 -1.200 -1.400 Import Export 2008. 2009. 2010. 2015. 2020.

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Figure 8 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Albania, 2007-2020

1.000 900 800 700 x 1 000 t 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2007. Naphtha 2008. 2009. 2010. Residual fuel oil 2015. Petrol coke 2020. Bitumen
Gas/diesel oil
Figure 9 Petroleum Product Imports, Albania, 2007-2020

800 700 600 x 1 000 t 500 400 300 200 100 0 2007. LPG Gas/diesel oil Bitumen 2008. 2009. Motor gasoline Residual fuel oil Lubricants 2010. 2015. 2020. Kerosene and jet fuel Petrol coke Other

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Figure 10 Petroleum Product Exports, Albania, 2007-2020

200 180 160 140 x 1 000 t 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2007. Naphtha 2008. 2009. Residual fuel oil 2010. 2015. 2020. Bitumen Petrol coke
Figure 11 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Albania, 2007-2020
1.600 1.400 1.200 x 1 000 t 1.000 800 600 400 200 0 2007. LPG Gas/diesel oil Bitumen 2008. 2009. 2010. 2015. 2020. Motor gasoline Residual fuel oil Lubricants Kerosene and jet fuel Petrol coke Other

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Figure 12 Oil Product Supply and Demand, Albania, 2007-2020
1.600 1.400 1.200 1.000 800 x 1 0 00 t 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 Production Import Export Consumption
5.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligations

The following tables give the Consultants calculated emergency oil stocks obligation for based on the methodology given in Section 3.2.
Table 6 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, Albania, 2009-2020
1 000 toe Crude oil LPG Motor gasoline Kerosene and jet fuel Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Petrol coke Bitumen Lubricants Other Total Daily net imports
2009 -208 101 86 10 357 33 32 44 9 0 463 1.3
2010 -186 109 99 15 398 61 40 58 10 2 607 1.7
2015 -1,222 123 138 19 376 -25 -1 -28 14 5 -599 -1.6
2020 -614 145 175 24 437 -63 -22 -76 19 9 33 0.1

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Table 7 90 Days Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, Albania, 2009-2020
1 000 toe Crude oil LPG Motor gasoline Kerosene and jet fuel Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Petrol coke Bitumen Lubricants Other Total
2009 -51 25 21 2 88 8 8 11 2 0 114
2010 -46 27 24 4 98 15 10 14 2 0 150
2015 -301 30 34 5 93 -6 0 -7 4 1 -148
2020 -151 36 43 6 108 -15 -5 -19 5 2 8
Table 8 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Albania, 2009-2020
1 000 toe Motor gasoline Kerosene and jet fuel Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Total Daily inland consumption
2009 97 11 487 124 720 2.0
2010 111 17 535 160 824 2.3
2015 156 22 632 190 1,000 2.7
2020 197 27 768 218 1,209 3.3
Table 9 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Albania, 2009-2020
1 000 toe Motor gasoline Kerosene and jet fuel Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Total
2009 16 2 81 21 120
2010 19 3 89 27 138
2015 26 4 106 32 167
2020 33 4 128 36 202
As the quantities of oil and petroleum products (in toe) calculated on basis of 61 days of average daily inland consumption are greater than quantities calculated on basis of 90 days of net imports after 2010, Albania should base its stockholding obligation on average daily inland consumption.

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Table 10 Stockholding Obligation According to Average Daily Inland Consumption, Albania, 2010-2021
1 000 toe Petroleum products Crude oil Total Days of net imports
2010 40 80 120 61
2011 46 92 138 61
2016 56 111 167 61
2021 67 135 202 61
Table 11 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Albania, 2010-2021
1 000 t Motor gasoline Kerosene and jet fuel Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Crude oil Total
2010 12 1 60 15 28 116
2011 14 2 66 20 32 132
2016 19 3 78 23 38 161
2021 24 3 94 27 46 194
The proposed composition of compulsory stocks provides the basis for the required volume of storage to 2021 as shown in Table 12.
Table 12 Required Volume of Storage of Compulsory Stocks, Albania, 2010-2021
m3 Motor gasoline Kerosene and jet fuel Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Crude oil Total
2010 15.806 1.834 71.126 17.104 33.042 138.912
2011 18.217 2.709 78.086 22.077 37.815 158.905
2016 25.492 3.522 92.268 26.175 45.918 193.375
2021 32.179 4.335 112.052 29.959 55.514 234.039

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5.3. Current Oil Infrastructure

This section provides the Consultants understanding of the current oil infrastructure in Albania.
Figure 13 Oil Infrastructure, Albania
Albania has four refineries, two of which are still in operation. The Ballsh and Fier refineries process heavy domestic crude oil (8-35API). The Ballsh refinery (1 Mt/y capacity) was commissioned in 1978 using Chinese technology and initially had the capacity to produce various oil products (including motor fuels) however this technology is now outdated. Its design only allows production of products with high sulphur content (4-8%) and operates at only about 30% of its nameplate capacity. Investments for improving infrastructure and quality of products are on-going. Finished products are shipped from Ballsh Refinery either by train or truck to the wholesale market. The road connection between the Fier and Ballsh refineries is not in good condition and needs improving and re-routing (e.g. to bypass the town of Ballsh). Roads are already under construction that should facilitate more efficient commercial transportation of products.

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The Fier refinery (0.5 Mt/y) was built using Russian technology which is now outdated. The refinery processes domestic crude oil and produces mostly light and heavy fuel oil for thermal power plant Fier and smaller quantities of bitumen and naphtha with high sulphur content. It operates at about 10-20% of installed capacity. Two crude oil pipelines currently exist, one which connecting the ARMO Vlor oil terminal with the refineries of Fier and Ballsh. Both pipelines are out of operation due to poor condition. In total, the oil pipeline network is 188 km long and the capacity is 2.5 million tons per year if operational and links the two operating refineries.
Table 13 Crude Oil Pipelines, Albania
Route Kuov - Zharrz Zharrz - Fier Gorisht - Ballsh Ballsh KPTHN (Refinery) Zharrz Visok Ballsh KPTHN (Refinery) Vlor - Ballsh Vlor - Fier (Refinery) Total
Length (km) 24.0 14.7 17.6 1.2 25.5 70.0 35.0 188.0
There are four ports in Albania. The port of Durrs, located in the Bay of Durrs, is the largest port in Albania and an important hub for the international market and product import into. Its operational infrastructure consists of 11 quay aprons with a depth ranging from 7.5 m-11.7m. The port is accessible for ships up to 20,000 dwt. To the north of city of Durrs is the newly built Porto Romano oil terminal which can receive cargo ships with liquid gas capacity of 9,000 tonnes and oil cargo ships with capacity of 20,000 tonnes. The sea depth of the tanker berth is 10.5m. Discharge capacity of the equipment is 9,000 t of gasoline in 24 hours and 4,000 t per LPG in 24 hours. The terminal has been operated by the concessionary company Romano Port since 2009. At Vlora-1 port in Vlor Bay, there is an ARMO ship unloading platform, however this only accessible for small cargo vessels. The anchorage depth is 20.1 - 21.3m and sea depth of tanker berth is 8.5m. The export line from the ARMO tank yard to the platform is 8" and has recently been rehabilitated. In addition, a 10" line runs in parallel, which is used for water purging after unloading operations. ARMO operates storage facilities for import/export of petroleum products with a ship loading platform (about 4 km from the shoreline). North of city of Vlor, as part of the Vlor coastal hydrocarbon terminal is a new 600m long jetty with water depth of about 8.5m which can
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accommodate two vessels. Unloading capacities are 19,000 t of gasoil and gasoline in 24 hours and 1,500 t of LPG in 24 hours. The terminal has been operated by the private company Petrolifera Italo-Rumena since 2009. The port of Shngjin is located at north of Albanian coast and handles among other cargo liquid bulks, specifically oils. Anchorage depth is between 20.1 and 21.3m. The port of Sarand is located at southern Albanian coast. It has two areas: Sarand for general cargo and ferries, and Limioni bay, for fishing and other smaller cargoes. The current total storage capacity in Albania is about 732,000 m3.
Table 14 Crude Oil and Intermediate Products Storage Capacities of ARMO, Albania
Product Crude oil
Intermediate products Total *Calculated based on data expressed in tonnes
Location Ballsh Refinery Vlora-1 port Ballsh Refinery
Capacity (m3) 42,500* 13,000 80,600* 136,100
Table 15 Petroleum Products Storage Capacities, Albania
Location Ballsh refinery Port of Shngjin Port of Durres Porto Romano oil terminal Vlora-1 port ARMO terminal, Vlora Petrolifera oil terminal, Vlora Different wholesale companies
Product Petroleum products Petroleum products Petroleum products Fuels and combustion fuels LPG Petroleum products Gasoline and gasoil Petroleum products Fuel oil LPG
Capacity (m3) 45,942* 39,450 31,000 69,000 10,000 13,000 30,000 64,000 281,216 13,057 596,665
Total *Calculated based on data expressed in tonnes
In the Vlora-1 port, there is 13,000 m3 of capacity for crude oil under construction. There are 147,000 m3 of storage for fuel and combustion fuels, 18,600 m3 for LPG and 10,000 m3 for bitumen under construction in Porto Romano terminal. This new capacity will increase existing storage by 188,600 m3.

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5.4. Emergency Oil Stock Current Situation

In Albania refineries and wholesale companies are obliged to keep emergency stocks of oil and oil products. The number of companies that are required to hold stocks is increasing each year, due to the liberalisation of the licensing process. In 2010 there were about 90 wholesale companies that had the obligation for holding emergency oil stocks. The growth in the number of companies is shown in Figure 14.
Figure 14 Wholesale Companies Obliged to Hold Emergency Oil Stocks, Albania 20012009
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2001 LPG 2002 2003 2004 Gas oil 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Motor gasoline
Kerosene and jet fuel
Light fuel oil (solar)
Based on the orders of the Minister responsible for the petroleum sector prepared for each wholesale company, the volume of emergency oil stocks for the year 2010 was 106,467 tons of oil and petroleum products.
Table 16 Emergency Oil Stocks, Albania, 2010
Product LPG Motor gasoline Gas oil Kerosene and jet fuel Light fuel oil (Solar) Total
Quantity (t) 16,458 9,979 69,178 2,401 8,450 106,467

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5.5. Additional required stockholding capacities

Albania currently has 106,467 tonnes of petroleum products for emergency stocks. This quantity almost satisfies the stockholding obligation under Directive 2009/119/EC. In order to keep holding enough stocks regarding the increase of consumption forecast, Albania should increase its stockholding capacities by about 100,000 m3 by 2021 (Table 12).
5.6. Legal Review

The main institution responsible for the management of the stocks is the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Energy. The responsible unit for the petroleum activity and the Central Technical Inspectorate audit quantities of emergency oil stocks. The rules and administrative procedures are based on the Technical regulation for maintenance of oil by-products in storages where the emergency stocks for oil, gas and their by-products are held, and the manner of control organisation for evaluation of the quality standards of byproducts in these storages. This Regulation is approved by the Minister responsible for the petroleum sector. Law No. 8450 of 24 February 1999, On the refining, transportation and trading of oil, gas and their by-products and its amendment (Law 9574, dated 3.7.2006) determines the holding of the emergency oil stocks by oil refineries and wholesale companies of oil, natural gas and their derivatives. This is equivalent to 30 days average sale calculated based on actual data and results of the activity of the previous year. Oil refineries, can meet up to 50% of their emergency oil stocks obligation in the form of crude oil. They can keep the stocks in their own tanks or in tanks of the oil production companies with whom they have a supply contracts. Wholesale companies can keep the emergency oil stocks in their own tanks or tankage rented from another company. Law No. 9218, dated 8 April 2004 (an amendment to Law No. 8450 "For the processing, transportation and marketing of oil, gas and derivatives) increased the obligation to 60 days average sales, starting from 2007 and achieving 90 days of the average sale in 2010. Article 25 of Law Nr. 9218 imposes a penalty of up to 50% of the product value for stock that is lacking from the defined requirement. Decree No. 808, dated 5 November 2004 On maintaining and management of emergency stock for oil, gas and their products commits refineries, coastal installations and wholesale companies to hold emergency stocks of oil, gas and their by-products. The emergency stocks are to be held for the following categories:

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Category 0 - crude oil Category I - liquid petroleum gas Category II - motor gasoline, fuel gasoline Category III - diesel oil, kerosene and jet fuel Category IV light fuel oil
The responsible unit for the petroleum activity defines the quantity of emergency stock for these products, held by the refinery, coastal installation and wholesale company, calculated over the sales of preceding calendar year. The quantity of emergency stock for the next year is defined by order of minister responsible for hydrocarbons sector, at the end of each year. Based on the Decision No. 914, dated 29 December 2007 (a modification to Decision No. 808 of the Council of Ministers "On the maintenance and reserve security management for petroleum, gas and their derivatives") the amount of the security reserve, to be held by entities that are obliged to keep the safety stock is: No less than 30 per cent of the technically certified tanks of the entity Not more than 40 per cent of the technically certified tanks of parties with whom the entity has an agreement with
5.7. Financial Aspects of Oil Stocks

Emergency stocks of petroleum products are held by energy companies. The system requires that they include their expenses for emergency stocks in the retail price of their product. The use of storage capacities of trade companies might also affect business opportunities and be the reason that some companies do not carry out the imposed obligation so compliance is problematic. To get better control over emergency stocks and transparency of the stockholding system, the Consultant proposes a more rigorous approach from the government for reporting and auditing of emergency oil stocks and more active role in fining non-compliant companies. For storing of emergency stocks Albania should consider all possibilities in enabling usage of existing storage whether through modernisation of storage currently out of operation or through lease of adequate storage capacities from private companies. The rest of the required capacities should be built in adequate locations.

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Table 17 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage, Albania, 20102021
Oil products Crude oil Total
Construction m3 41,000 9,840,000 56,000 11,200,000 97,000 21,040,000
Modernisation m3 140,000 13,440,000 0 0 140,000 13,440,000
In accordance with the calculated total obligation up to 2021, Albania needs to invest in the purchase of petroleum products and crude oil an amount of 91.9 million.
Table 18 Needed Investment in Crude Oil and Oil Products Purchase, Albania, 20102020
Tonnes Oil products Crude oil Total

148.216 46.243
71.989.771 19.872.985
194,459
91,862,756
The requirements for modernisation of existing storage capacity (Table 19), construction of new facilities (Table 20) and the formation or acquisition of stocks were defined for the purpose of calculating the investment by importers and producers of petroleum products for each litre of gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil and LPG sold on the Albanian market. The proposed scenario results in costs that include investments in storage facilities, procurement of petroleum products and crude oil inventories, renewal of stocks as well as operational costs of the entire system (Table 21).
Table 19 Storage Tank Modernisation Plan, Albania, 2010-2020
m3 Oil products Crude oil
2012 140,000 0
2014 0 0
2016 0 0
2018 0 0
2020 0 0
Table 20 Storage Tank Construction Plan, Albania, 2010-2020
m3 Oil products Crude oil
2012 0 0
2014 0 30,000
2016 20,000 26,000
2018 21,000 0
2020 0 0

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Table 21 Planned Costs (Storage Capacities, Crude Oil and Products Procurement and Operational Costs), Albania, 2010-2020
1 000 2011 2012 2013 2014 Oil products 0 69,967 2,128 2,128 Crude oil 0 0 0 17,195 Total 0 69,967 2,128 19,323
2015 2016 2017 2018 2,128 15,003 2,432 15,951 456 15,359 851 851 2,584 30,362 3,283 16,802
2019 2020 2,751 2,751 851 851 3,602 3,602
Figure 15 Proposed Build-up of Emergency Stocks Formation in Albania, 2012-2020

250 Crude oil 200 Oil products
x 1 000 t
150
100
50
0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
With the defined scenario of the stocks formation and forecast consumption of petroleum products in Albania, the average cost to the importers and manufacturers of petroleum products per each litre of gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil and LPG placed on the market would amount to 0.013 /l. Such fee ensures the formation of 61-day supplies of oil and petroleum products by the year 2020 in Albania.
5.8. Organizational Aspects of the Stockholding System

The body responsible for the maintenance and auditing of stocks is the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Energy. Due to problems in the current system of stockholding of imposing the obligation of holding emergency stocks to the companies the formation of a legally empowered institution would provide a transparent and efficient system which would satisfy the needs of security supply. This institution may be an independent agency (CSE) or any other similar body. Where a country sets up a CSE, it shall take the form of a body or service without profit objective and acting in the general interest and shall not be considered to be an economic operator. The main purpose of the CSE shall be to acquire, maintain and sell oil stocks.

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The regulator should be formed by amendments of the Law and it should take over all duties regarding emergency stocks including auditing purchase, sales, management and reporting and disclosure of emergency stock holdings. Given the current situation of non-compliance with emergency stock holding requirements in Albania, there should be a grace period for investment in storage capacity and build up of stocks.
5.9. Intervention in Case of Supply Disruption

The procedures for usage of emergency stocks in an emergency situation are provided in Decree No. 808 dated 5 November 2004. An emergency situation is triggered when: the petroleum market is characterized by a significant reduction of the supply of oil, gas and their products by a material rise in the price of imports of oil, gas and their products compared to prices of the previous year or when it is expected that these factors are likely to arise In case of a crisis the Prime Minister will proclaim a state of emergency for oil, oil products or gas, according to the proposal of the minister responsible for the hydrocarbons sector. The Committee of Crisis Management defines emergency stock usage and its market price. The Committee of Crisis Management prepares and approves the security measures to deal with the shortages. These measures include: introducing a maximum speed for motor vehicles limiting the use of certain vehicle groups temporary prohibition of export of oil, gas and their products
5.10. Required Legislative Changes

Even though Albania has a legislative framework based on the EU requirements on oil stocks it has to include recent changes included in the Directive 2009/119/EC in its legal acts. These changes involve: The method of calculation of the obligatory oil stocks - Article 3 ; Annexes I, II and III There is no need to classify products into Categories I, II, III etc. as the composition of stocks is regulated in Article 9 of the Directive 2009/119/EC

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The quantities of emergency stocks can be stored in form of crude oil in larger share than 40% - Article 9 of the Directive 2009/119/EC There are possibilities to for companies required to hold stocks to delegate their obligation - Article 8 of the Directive 2009/119/EC for details There is an obligation to submit statistical summaries of the level of emergency stocks on a regular bases for each month - Article 12 and Annex IV of the Directive 2009/119/EC There is an obligation to submit statistical summaries of the level of commercial stocks on a regular basis for each month - Article 14 of the Directive 2009/119/EC for details Biofuels can be taken into account when calculating stockholding obligation - Article 16 of the Directive 2009/119/EC The procedure in case of supply disruptions is to be refined to include the Commission and IEA in the process - Article 20 of the Directive 2009/119/EC and should include a revision to price increases triggering a release of stocks as opposed to physical interruption.
5.11. Road Map

Albania is fairly advanced along the road to complying with Directive 2009/119/EC. However, legislative changes are still required to comply with the Directive and to provide enforcement of company obligations. The Consultant believes an independent regulator should be formed to calculate the required emergency stock holding obligations, oversee reporting, auditing and publication of the emergency oil stocks and powers to levy fines for the non-compliance with emergency stock holding requirements. A possible timeline as envisaged by the Consultants is given in below. It should be noted that as the government is not envisaged as directly holding stocks, a looser engineering study and construction phase is given as companies should be allowed maximum flexibility for capital investment. Having met with Albanian representatives, it has become clear that the Albanian method of requiring industry to hold stocks has not been successful. Albania is now considering moving towards a CSE and having one central body control emergency stock holdings. This is a major undertaking by Albania and will require significant reworking of legislation and legal frameworks. The Consultant is presenting the road map for the current situation within Albania and not the proposed move to a CSE. Once Albania has started to move in a more certain direction, the Consultant recommends that Albania updates the Energy Community with a new road map. The Consultant believes that is Albania were to continue with the current framework and plans laid out in this section and in Figure 16, then Albania should be compliant by 2016. However, should Albania move towards a CSE system for holding stocks, this may take longer. In either case, the Consultant believes that Albania has a good chance of being compliant with Directive
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2009/119/EC by 2016 and certainly should be compliant by the 2020 time frame of this study.

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Figure 16 Gantt Diagram for Road Map, Albania
43
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6. Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is completely dependent on imported crude oil but it has petroleum products production in two refineries. The available production and refining capacities of both refinery plants, Bosanski Brod Oil Refinery and Modria Lube Refinery, are relatively high given the size of the BiH market.

The following figures provide a summary of the current and forecast position in BiH based on the methodology outlined in Section 3.1.
Figure 17 Crude Oil Imports, BiH, 2007-2020
4.500 4.000 3.500 3.000 x 1 000 t 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020

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Figure 18 Net Production of Petroleum Products, BiH, 2007-2020

4.000 3.500 3.000 2.500 x 1 000 t 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 0 2007 LPG Residual fuel oil 2008 2009 Motor gasoline Bitumen 2010 Naphtha Lubricants 2015 2020 Gas/diesel oil Other
Figure 19 Petroleum Product Imports, BiH, 2007-2020

1.600 1.400 1.200 1.000 x 1 000 t 800 600 400 200 0 2007 LPG Gas/diesel oil Bitumen 2008 2009 2010 2015 Petrol coke Other 2020 Motor gasoline Residual fuel oil Lubricants Kerosene and jet fuel

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Figure 20 Petroleum Product Exports, BiH, 2007-2020

3.000 2.500 2.000 x 1 000 t
1.500 1.000 500 0 2007 LPG Petrol coke 2008 2009 Motor gasoline Bitumen 2010 Gas/diesel oil Lubricants 2015 2020 Residual fuel oil Other
Figure 21 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, BiH, 2007-2020

2.000 1.800 1.600 1.400 x 1 000 t 1.200 1.000 800 600 400 200 0 2007 LPG Gas/diesel oil Lubricants 2008 2009 Motor gasoline Residual fuel oil Other 2010 Petrol coke 2015 Naphtha Bitumen 2020 Kerosene and jet fuel

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Figure 22 Oil Product Supply and Demand, BiH, 2007-2020
4.000
3.000
2.000
x 1 000 t
1.000
0 Production -1.000 Imports Exports Consumption
-2.000
-3.000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020
6.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligation

The following tables give the Consultants calculated emergency oil stocks obligation for BiH based on the methodology given in Section 3.2.
Table 22 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, BiH, 2009-2020
2009 1,022 13 212 2 549 -122 39 -16 -4 -17 1,679 4.6
2010 1,104 -7 155 2 566 -149 36 -31 -6 -11 1,659 4.5
2015 3,101 -152 -453 2 -251 -276 32 -224 -58 -33 1,688 4.6
2020 3,744 -187 -586 3 -349 -368 28 -292 -79 -49 1,866 5.1

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Table 23 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, BiH, 20092020
2009 252 3 52 0 135 -30 10 -4 -1 -4 414
2010 272 -2 38 1 140 -37 9 -8 -2 -3 409
2015 765 -38 -112 1 -62 -68 8 -55 -14 -8 416
2020 923 -46 -144 1 -86 -91 7 -72 -19 -12 460
Table 24 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, BiH, 2009-2020
2009 365 2 1,018 146 1,531 4.2
2010 360 2 1,120 140 1,622 4.4
2015 378 2 1,175 115 1,670 4.6
2020 413 4 1,367 101 1,884 5.2
Table 25 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, BiH, 2009-2020
2009 61 0 170 24 256
2010 60 0 187 23 271
2015 63 0 196 19 279
2020 69 1 228 17 315

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Table 26 Stockholding Obligation According to Average Daily Net Imports, BiH, 20102021
2010 138 276 414 90
2011 136 273 409 90
2016 139 278 416 90
2021 153 307 460 90
The proposed composition of compulsory stocks is based on current crude oil and petroleum products storage capacities and provides the basis for the required volume of storage to 2021 as shown in Table 28.
Table 27 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, BiH, 2010-2021
2010 72 0.4 202 29 95 398
2011 67 0.4 207 26 94 394
2016 69 0.4 215 21 95 401
2021 74 0.6 245 18 105 443
On the basis of proposed composition of compulsory stocks, the required storage capacity until 2021 is shown below.
Table 28 Required Volume of Storage for Compulsory Stocks, BiH, 2010-2021
2010 96,387 526 240,267 32,638 113,881 483,700
2011 88,739 584 246,410 29,164 112,522 477,419
2016 92,111 577 255,603 23,656 114,527 486,473
2021 98,566 848 291,390 20,282 126,571 537,658

The current refining capacities are greater than the market requirements of BiH. The refinery has two plants with a total capacity of processing 4,320,000 tons of oil annually. The older of the two plants started operation in 1968 with a capacity of 2 million tons a year, but currently its effective capacity is 1,320,000 tons a year. The new oil plant was designed for an annual output of 3 million tons. The construction of the new oil refining line was completed and put in trial operation in 1991, but because of the Balkans conflict, the plant

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was never used. The conflict caused damage and lack of financial resources after the conflict prevented the re-start of the new plant. A Russian company, NefteGazInKor, purchased an 80% share in the Bosanski Brod Refinery, a 75.6% share in the Modria Refinery and 80% share in Petrol Banja Luka. It was required to provide investment that would lead to significant rejuvenation of the BiH oil industry. These investments would ensure the functioning of the processing capacities of the new line which would increase the refinery's total annual capacity up to 4.2 million tons. The refinery Bosanski Brod imports crude oil by oil pipeline JANAF connected to Omialj sea terminal in Croatia.
Figure 23 Oil Infrastructure, BiH
BiH has around 800,000 m3 storage capacity. Of those 532,707 m3 are in Bosanski Brod refinery. Many of the storage tanks in BiH were damaged during the conflict. There are also tank facilities that need modernisation in order to comply with EU security standards. BiH owns a terminal in Port of Ploe in Croatia with a capacity 82,000 m3 with a shipping capacity of 500 t/h and receiving capacity of 1,000 t/h. The terminal is operated by Naftni Terminali Federacije.

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Table 29 Crude Oil and Intermediate Products Storage Capacities in Bosanski Brod Refinery, BiH
Product Crude oil Intermediate products Total

*Capacities in operation
Capacity* (m3) 163,000 122,863 285,863
Table 30 Storage Capacities for Petroleum Products, BiH
Location
Bosanski Brod refinery
Sarajevo
Mostar
ivinice
Ploe apljina Biha Ilija Vrbanja Breziani Banja Luka (Krajinapetrol a.d.) Vardite-Viegrad Different smaller terminals Total
Product LPG Motor gasoline Diesel Gas oil Residual fuel oil Other* LPG Motor gasoline Jet fuel Diesel LPG Motor gasoline Diesel LPG Motor gasoline Jet fuel Diesel Motor gasoline Diesel Motor gasoline Diesel Motor gasoline Jet fuel Diesel Diesel n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Capacity (m3) 3,241 31,272 80,279 4,705 47,735 79,475 1,000 20,000 3,000 20,000 1,000 6,000 30,000 1,000 3,000 6,000 10,000 32,000 50,000 5,000 15,000 8,000 27,000 10,000 28,000 20,900 17,600 4,600 3,500 10,000 499,832
*Including naphtha, platformate bitumen and base oil

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BiH has currently no emergency oil stocks and is understood by the Consultant to be evaluating possible options.
6.5. Additional required stockholding capacities

The refinery currently has 163,000 m3 of storage for crude oil in operation, but additional storage for crude oil and petroleum products could be provided after repair and modernisation. There is also a possibility to increase capacity in Port of Ploe or to lease storage from private companies. However, even with these measures, BiH needs new storage capacity to be built and / or existing storage capacities to rehabilitated and modernised. In that regard, the Consultant assumed that about 2/3rd of required stockholding capacities should be built new and other 1/3rd should be supplied by repair or modernisation of existing capacity (Table 31). In this way there is a possibility to achieve oil stocks formation with lower financial burden to the consumers.
6.6. Legal Review

At present, BiH does not have the legislation in place which regulates compulsory stocks of oil and petroleum products on the State level. The first steps towards creating the conditions to undertake obligation given in (then applicable) Directives 68/414/EEC, 73/239/EEC and 98/93/EC, which prescribed the obligation of forming the required reserves of crude oil ("Emergency Oil Stock") as well as procedures in situations of supply interruptions, were made in 2003 when the Government of the Federation BiH by Decision No. 599/03 (Official Gazette FBiH, 60/03) established the Company for storage of liquid fuels "Terminali Federacije " Ltd., Sarajevo. The main task of the Company is just keeping of emergency stocks. The Republika Srpska has recently adopted a new Law on oil and petroleum products (Official Gazette RS No. 36/09) that stipulates emergency oil stocks. According to the Law on oil and petroleum products of Republika Srpska, oil stocks are supposed to be in place by the beginning of 2012 comprising three groups of oil products: motor gasoline and aviation gasoline; diesel fuels, gas oil and jet fuel; fuel oil. Emergency stocks can consist of crude oil and semi final oil products, up to 40% for motor gasoline, aviation gasoline, diesel fuels, gas oil and jet fuel and up to 50% for fuel oil. State reserves, operational reserves, oil products in tanks of vehicles for driving and other transport means, products in rail cars, road tankers, gas filling stations tanks, in tanks of consumers are excluded from emergency oil stocks.
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The Government of Republika Srpska is preparing sub laws and/or other legal binding documents for emergency oil stock organisation system, financing and dynamics of formation. The Federal Ministry of Energy, Mining and Industry of the Federation of BiH is about to finish and adopt Decree on organization and regulation of oil sector in BiH. The aim of this document is to set up legal framework for security supply improvement, organization and regulation of oil sector in the Federation of BiH, increase level of transparency in doing oil business, increase petroleum products quality, as well as establishment of emergency oil stocks upon adoption of state level legal framework in line with Directive 2009/119/EC. The draft of the Decree stipulates establishment of 90-days oil stocks, its composition, which stocks can/cannot be taken into calculation, dynamics of establishment, etc.

The total obligation of emergency stocks to be held in the period of 2011-2021 (Table 26) is expected to be 460,000 toe in 2021. According to the proposed structure of compulsory stocks it is necessary to ensure 426,000 m3 of storage for petroleum products, and 130,000 m3 for crude oil by 2020. It is estimated that in BiH, there is about 142,000 m3 of storage capacity available for stockholding of oil products and about 40,000 m3 for crude oil. Accordingly, it is necessary to build additional 284,000 m3 of storage capacity for oil products and 90,000 m3 for crude oil (Table 31). Total investment in construction of new storage capacities and modernization of existing facilities is estimated at 103 million.
Table 31 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage, BiH, 2010-2020
Construction m3 284,000 68,160,000 90,000 18,000,000 374,000 86,160,000
Modernisation m3 142,000 13,632,000 40,000 3,200,000 182,000 16,832,000
Based on the calculated total obligation to 2021 BiH needs to purchase petroleum products and crude oil for 212 million (Table 32).
Table 32 Needed Investment in Crude Oil and Oil Products Purchase, BiH, 2010-2020
Tonnes 337,388 166,676,453 105,434 45,310,004 442,822 211,986,457

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In order to generate finance for emergency stocks formation in BiH, the Consultant recommends collection of fee paid by the producers and importers of petroleum products. As the petroleum products price is not regulated the cost of the stockholding system would be included in the retail price of motor fuels. The liable body should be responsible for collection of the fees. The requirement for the modernisation of existing the storage capacity (Table 33), construction of new facilities (Table 34) and the formation or acquisition of stocks were defined for the purpose of calculating the compensation to be paid by importers and producers of petroleum products per each litre of gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil and LPG sold on the BiH market. The proposed scenario costs include investments in storage facilities, procurement of petroleum products and crude oil inventories, renewal of stocks as well as operational costs of the entire system (Table 35).
Table 33 Storage Tank Modernisation Plan, BiH, 2010-2020
m3 Products Crude oil
2012 50,000 40,000
2014 92,000 0
2016 0 0
2018 0 0
2020 0 0
Table 34 Storage Tank Construction Plan, BiH, 2010-2020
m3 Products Crude oil
2012 0 0
2014 40,000 40,000
2016 80,000 40,000
2018 100,000 0
2020 64,000 0
Table 35 Planned Costs (Storage Capacities, Crude Oil and Products Procurement and Operational Costs), BiH, 2010-2020
1 000 Products Crude oil Total
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 25,321 760 73,367 2,766 54,800 0 18,127 608 23,535 1,216 24,143 0 43,448 1,368 96,902 3,982 78,943
2017 2018 2019 2020 3,982 69,024 5,502 47,129 1,824 1,824 1,824 1,824 5,806 70,848 7,326 48,953
With the defined scenario of emergency oil stocks formation (Figure 23) and forecast consumption of petroleum products in BiH, the average fee paid by the importers and manufacturers of petroleum products per each litre of gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil and LPG placed on the market would amount to 0.020 /l. The proposed fee ensures the formation of 90-day supplies of oil and petroleum products by the year 2020 in BiH.

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Figure 24 Proposed Build-up of Emergency Stocks Formation in BiH, 2012-2020

500 450 400 350 x 1 000 t 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Crude oil Oil products

Currently, BiH does not have an established emergency stocks system. It would be necessary to form a CSE3 or relevant body under the jurisdiction of the state level authority of BiH that would execute the legal obligations stipulated in the Directive 2009/911/EC. The main obligations comprise providing the required volume of storage capacities, purchase and maintenance of emergency stocks, and reporting emergency oil stock levels to the relevant bodies.

There is no legislation that regulates activities in case of oil supply disruptions.

Even though Republika Srpska has designed a basic legislative framework according to the EU requirements for oil stocks it has still to include recent changes included in the Directive 2009/119/EC in its legal acts. The required changes of existing legal acts and additional binding legal documents should be changed according to the following: The method of calculation of the obligatory oil stocks (90 days of average daily net imports) - Article 3 of the Directive; Annexes I, II and III of the Directive The composition of stocks is regulated in Article 9 of the Directive and this should be enacted into the appropriate new law
3
A CSE was chosen in this case as the market in BiH is small and there is less opportunity for companies to directly partake in storage of petroleum products and efficiently allocate costs

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The quantities of emergency stocks can be stored in form of crude oil in larger share than 40 or 50% - Article 9 of the Directive Include all other aspects stipulated in the Directive 2009/119/EC Design the legislation for the procedure in case of supply disruptions - Article 20 of the Directive There needs to be one CSE for the whole of BiH not separate bodies for stock holding within BiHs constituent entities in order to comply with Directive 2009/119/EC and the Treaty.
However, BiH has to implement the complete legal framework regarding the emergency stockholding at the state level. This includes the procedure in case of supply disruptions.
6.11. Road Map

Firstly BiH requires a legal framework for the storage of emergency oil stocks that complies with Directive 2009/119/EC. Secondly is the formation of a CSE and appropriate emergency response planning and coordination procedures. Thirdly is the construction of additional storage facilities and rehabilitation of those which are suitable. It is suggested that BiH should undertake a careful cost benefit analysis as to whether the CSE should own storage directly or lease and additional capacity from other operators.

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Figure 25 Road Map Gantt Diagram, BiH
57
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7. Croatia
Croatia has a well developed oil sector. The largest oil company is INA whose major shareholder is MOL with 47%, whilst the state holds 44% of the shares. INA is producing oil and gas in Croatia and abroad and produces petroleum products in two domestic oil refineries. INA operates a regional retail network of petrol stations in Croatia and BiH, Slovenia and Montenegro. OMV, Lukoil and Tifon have a significant share of the Croatian retail market.

The following figures provide a summary of the current and forecast position in Croatia based on the methodology outlined in Section3.1.
Figure 26 Oil and Condensate Production, Croatia, 2007-2020
900 800 700 x 1 000 t 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2007. 2008. 2009. Crude oil 2010 2015 2020 Other condensate

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Figure 27 Crude Oil Import, Croatia, 2007-2020
Figure 28 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Croatia, 2007-2020

6.000 5.000 4.000 x 1 000 t 3.000 2.000 1.000 0 2007 LPG Gas/diesel oil Lubricants 2008 2009 2010 2015 Naphtha Bitumen 2020
Motor gasoline Residual fuel oil Other
Kerosene and jet fuel Petrol coke

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Figure 29 Petroleum Product Imports, Croatia, 2007-2020

2.500
2.000
x 1 000 t
1.500
1.000
500
0 2007 2008 LPG Gas/diesel oil Bitumen 2009 2010 2015 2020 Motor gasoline Residual fuel oil Lubricants Kerosene and jet fuel Petrol coke Other
Figure 30 Petroleum Product Exports, Croatia, 2007-2020

3.500 3.000 2.500 x 1 000 t 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 0 2007 LPG Gas/diesel oil Lubricants 2008 2009 2010 2015 Naphtha Bitumen 2020
Motor gasoline Residual fuel oil Other
Kerosene and jet fuel Petrol coke

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Figure 31 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Croatia, 2007-2020

5.000 4.500 4.000 x 1 000 t 3.500 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 0 2007 LPG Gas/diesel oil Lubricants 2008 2009 Motor gasoline Residual fuel oil Other 2010 2015 Naphtha Bitumen 2020 Kerosene and jet fuel Petrol coke
Figure 32 Oil Product Supply and Demand, Croatia, 2007-2020

7.000 6.000 5.000 4.000 3.000 x 1 000 t 2.000 1.000 0 -1.000 -2.000 -3.000 -4.000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 Production Imports Exports Consumption

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The following tables give the Consultants calculated emergency oil stocks obligation for Croatia based on the methodology given in Section3.2.
Table 36 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum, Croatia, 2009-2020
2009 3,886 -178 -465 -4 280 -288 127 103 22 -138 3,343 9.2
2010 4,258 -197 -597 10 140 -402 100 58 19 -120 3,269 9.0
2015 4,730 -223 -632 22 -221 311 -456 107 22 -55 3,605 9.9
2020 5,209 -236 -722 29 -333 -113 -437 112 24 17 3,551 9.7
Table 37 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, Croatia, 2009-2020
2009 958 -44 -115 -1 69 -71 31 25 5 -34 824
2010 1,050 -49 -147 3 34 -99 25 14 5 -30 806
2015 1,166 -55 -156 5 -54 77 -112 26 5 -14 889
2020 1,284 -58 -178 7 -82 -28 -108 28 6 4 876
Table 38 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Croatia, 2009-2020
2009 835 117 2,156 738 3,846 10.5
2010 827 132 2,137 687 3,783 10.4
2015 853 150 2,195 663 3,861 10.6
2020 879 168 2,267 212 3,527 9.7 62

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Table 39 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Croatia, 2009-2020
2009 140 20 360 123 643
2010 138 22 357 115 632
2015 143 25 367 111 645
2020 147 28 379 35 589
Table 40 Stockholding Obligation According to Average Daily Net Imports, Croatia, 2010-2021
2010 275 550 824 90
2011 269 537 806 90
2016 296 593 889 90
2021 292 584 876 90
Given the structure of supply and demand in Croatia, the proposed stock holding is detailed in Table 41.
Table 41 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Croatia, 2010-2021
2010
55 8 141 48 630
2011
54 9 139 45 616
2016
60 11 154 47 679
2021
67 13 172 16 669
882
862
951
936
On the basis of the proposed composition of compulsory stocks, the required volume of storage at 2021 is shown in Table 42.
Table 42 Required Volume of Storage for Compulsory Stocks, Croatia, 2010-2021
2010 72,916 10,113 168,106 54,285 755,988 1,061,407
2011 71,794 11,267 165,650 50,283 739,215 1,038,209
2016 80,040 13,860 183,775 52,417 815,084 1,145,176
2021 88,960 16,794 204,776 18,033 802,957 1,131,520

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This section gives an overview of the Consultants understanding of the current infrastructure in Croatia.
Figure 33 Oil Infrastructure, Croatia
In Croatia, INA has two oil refineries located in Rijeka (Urinj) and Sisak. The refinery at Rijeka is mid-sized and it is located on the coast, allowing access to the port for deep-draft ships and the JANAF pipeline system. The refinerys location is suitable for market supply, not only to Croatia but also to the southern parts of BiH, Slovenia, Montenegro, and other Mediterranean countries. The Rijeka refinery annually processes 3-3.5 million tons of oil and manufactures a certain number of petroleum products intended for the domestic and foreign markets. The refinery in Sisak is 50 km from Zagreb, and the Zagreb area has the highest consumption of petroleum products in the country. The refinerys location is also suitable to supply other local markets in Croatia, as well as those in north-western BiH, north-eastern Slovenia and western and northern Serbia. The refinery processes domestic crude (produced by INA) in addition to Russian crude oil imported through the oil pipelines Druzhba 1 and Druzhba 2, as well as from the Mediterranean Sea by the JANAF oil pipeline. The refinery annually processes 2.0 to 2.2 million tons of oil and manufactures a certain number of petroleum derivates that are sold on the domestic and the neighbouring export markets.
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In 2005, INA launched an extensive refinery modernisation program, which is essential for the production of higher-quality products that meet EU requirements and specification. Meeting EU specifications was achieved at the end of 2010. The JANAF oil pipeline connects the harbour at Omialj on Krk Island and refineries in Rijeka and Sisak in Croatia, Bosanski Brod Refinery in BiH, Novi Sad and Panevo Refineries in Serbia. It also extends to Hungary where it connects to the Druzhba pipeline. The installed pipeline capacity is 20 Mt/y. Tank storage for crude oil is located at the Rijeka and Sisak refineries and in JANAF pipeline terminals of Omialj and Sisak. In total, Croatia has 3.43 million m3 of storage capacities for oil and oil products.
Table 43 Crude Oil and Semi Products Storage Capacities in Croatia
Terminal owner Location JANAF Omialj Terminal Sisak Terminal Virje Rijeka refinery INA Sisak refinery
Product Crude oil Crude oil Crude oil Crude oil Semi products Crude oil Semi products
Total capacity (m3) 760,000 100,000 40,000 336,000 597,000 310,000 350,830

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Table 44 Petroleum Products Storage Capacities, Croatia
Location Omialj Sisak (Refinery) Rijeka (Refinery) Zabok
Zadar (Gaenica)
Zagreb
Ploe Sesvetski Kraljevac
Vukovar Karlovac Osijek Opatovac Solin Varadin Sustjepan Vinkovci Beli Manastir Gospi Slavonski Brod Total
Product Motor gasoline Diesel n/a n/a Motor gasoline Diesel Gas oil Motor gasoline Motor gasoline - in construction Diesel Diesel - in construction Gas oil Fuel oil Motor gasoline Diesel Gas oil n/a Motor gasoline Diesel Motor gasoline Diesel Gas oil Motor gasoline Diesel Gas oil Diesel n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Diesel Motor gasoline Diesel and gas oil Motor gasoline Diesel Gas oil
Capacity (m3) 20,000 40,000 197,280 190,500 10,200 19,800 5,300 31,500 15,000 38,000 45,000 3,500 21,000 10,000 28,300 16,000 75,000 4,500 19,500 500 500 500 5,348 6,934 1,300 1,000 9,500 20,000 70,000 1,300 400 1,300 1,200 150 550 3,100 2,100 1,000 917,062

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Table 45 LPG Storage Capacities, Croatia
Location Varadin Islam Latinski Buzet Sv. Kri Zaretje Zaprei Posedarje (Brala trade) Novigrad minj Labin Kerestinec Brezovica Pula Rijeka Osijek Katel Suurac Metkovi Pian Vojni Omi Umag ibenik Nova Gradika Drni Slavonski Brod Zagreb Zadar Omialj Total
Capacity (m3) 180 516 304 6,270 750 150 100 160 120 180 450 600 520 380 300 100 200 500 300 100 300 750 200 500 4,749 200 500 19,379
Croatia has three ports which can receive oil and oil products: Omialj, Zadar, and Ploe. The Port of Omialj is located on the Island of Krk. Two tanker berths with a sea depth of 30m may accommodate tankers up to Very Large Crude Carrier class. Each of the berths has four unloading arms for crude oil and two for oil products, with reloading capacity of 5,000 m3/h each, i.e. 20,000m3 of crude oil per berth per hour. In the Gaenice area of Zadar there is a terminal for oil products. Furthermore, there are two terminals for reception and dispatching of liquid cargo in the Port of Ploe: "Port of Ploe Terminal" and "Oil terminals of FBiH".

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This section provides a summary of the current emergency stock holding situation in Croatia.
Table 46 Emergency Stocks Held by HANDA, Croatia
Tonnes Crude oil Motor gasoline Diesel Jet fuel Gas oil Fuel oil
31 Dec 2009 293,176 10,000 33,000 0 0 35,000
31 Jul 2010 293,043 30,000 25,000 0 0 35,000
Table 47 Emergency Stocks Held by the Industry, Croatia
Tonnes Crude oil Motor gasoline Diesel Jet fuel Gas oil Fuel oil
31 Dec 2009 42,760 10,720 23,920 900 4,752 7,725
31 Jul 2010 48,084 10,720 23,920 900 4,752 7,725
Table 48 Coverage of Days of Consumption, Croatia
Days of coverage Motor gasoline Diesel Jet fuel Gas oil Fuel oil
31 Dec 2009 HANDA Industry 58 15 33 10 51 13 33 11 60 11
31 Jul 2010 HANDA Industry 64 15 26 10 31 10 34 12 66 11
7.5. Additional Required Stockholding Capacities

The stockholding agency, HANDA, and pipeline company, JANAF, have signed an agreement to build new storage capacities for stockholding purposes of 480,000 m3 in Omialj and Sisak for crude oil and of 120,000 m3 for petroleum products in Zagreb. The agreement is based on the dynamics of establishment and restoration of compulsory oil stocks and petroleum products, their storage organization and regional distribution (Official Gazette No. 149/2009). The project is already in progress. The plan is also to build two more terminals for oil products on government land.
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The Republic of Croatia has recently concluded intergovernmental agreements on storage of emergency stocks with Republic of Germany and Republic of Hungary.

This section sets out the Consultants opinion of what Croatia is likely to require in terms of investment. Croatia has conducted a more in-depth review of its capacity requirements and the figures quoted here are only an approximate guide.
Table 49 Croatian Capacity Requirements
Products Crude Total
Volume (m3) 367,000 820,000 1,187,000
Capex () 88,080,000 164,000,000 252,080,000
Stock Cost () 132,172,712 287,442,938 419,615,650
Emergency oil stocks in Croatia are financed through a fee determined each year for each of the petroleum products group (Official Gazette No. 146/2010) as follows: for petroleum products of Group I (motor gasoline and gasoline for aircrafts) the fee amounts 200 HRK per ton for products of Group II (diesel, gas oil and jet fuel) the fee is 300 HRK per ton and for products of Group III (fuel oil) the fee is 50 HRK.
This system has worked well in meeting the Agency budget and it is already well established.
7.7. Legal Review

The Law on Oil and Petroleum Products Market (Official Gazette No. 57/06) and Law on Amendments of the Law on Oil and Petroleum Products Market (Official Gazette No. 18/11) regulates compulsory oil stocks in accordance with EU directives, establishes the Croatian Compulsory Oil Stocks Agency (HANDA) and defines the time framework to form the compulsory oil stocks. The quantity of stocks is calculated based on 90 day consumption in the previous year from 31 March 2013 to 1 April 2013 based on 90 days of net imports or 61 days of average inland consumption in previous year which of the two is larger. Compulsory oil stocks are to be formed and fully owned by the Agency by 31 July 2012. In the meantime stocks are partly held by the industry and their obligation decreases every year.
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The statistical summaries on emergency stocks and complete copy of the Registry will be submitted to the European Commission after Croatia joins the European Union. The use of emergency stocks based on the decisions on European Commission and IEA will also be possible after joining the EU. The Ministry responsible for the oil sector is in charge of the coordination and cooperation with the European Commission and IEA especially in the matter or security of oil supply. Technical support to the Ministry will be provided by HANDA. They will together represent Republic of Croatia in the expert and advisory bodies of the European Commission and IEA. The Statute of the Croatian Agency for Compulsory Stocks of Oil and Petroleum Products (Official Gazette No. 6/07) determines all issues for operational activities of the Agency. Some specific issues concerning activities of the Agency are formulated in Regulation on some issues relating activities of Croatian agency for compulsory oil stocks (Official Gazette No. 64/09). Every year the Croatian Government gives a Decision on the quantity and structure of compulsory oil stocks and petroleum products (for year 2010, Official Gazette No. 41/2010) that lists the amount of each petroleum product to be held by HANDA and energy organisations. The Plan of providing, the dynamics of the formation and replenishment of compulsory stocks of oil and petroleum products, storage and organization of the regional distribution (Official Gazette No. 149/2009) gives the procedures for securing compulsory stocks and determines the need for new capacities to be built on specific locations. The Decision on the compensation fee regarding the financing of Croatian Compulsory Oil Stocks Agency for 2011 (Official Gazette No. 146/2010) determines the level of fees for each ton of oil products (for each group of products based on Law on Oil and Petroleum Products Market) placed on Croatian market.

HANDA is managed by the Governing Council appointed by the Government based on the suggestion of the Minister of Energy. Members of the Governing Council include one representative of the Ministry of Energy and one representative of the Ministry responsible for finance, together with three independent experts. Members of the Governing Council are not employees of HANDA.

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The Director General is responsible for the professional work and legality of the business operations of HANDA. The Director General represents HANDA individually and without limitations and conducts all legal actions in the name and on behalf of HANDA. The Director General is appointed by the General Council based on a public contest. The Director Generals mandate lasts four years with the possibility of re-election. The Director General is responsible to the Governing Council for its work.
Figure 34 HANDA Organisation Chart, Croatia

HANDA is an independent body that is obligated to form and manage the oil stocks. HANDA receives reports from energy industry participants on a weekly basis to assess the state of the oil market to be able to record any possibility of supply disruption. It is obliged to notify any disturbance to the Expert Commission for monitoring of regular market supply of oil and oil products that has to be appointed by the Government based on the proposal of the Ministry within a month from the entry into force of the Law on Amendments of the Law on Oil and Petroleum Products Market (Official Gazette 18/2011). The Commission would supervise a regular supply of oil and petroleum products to the Croatian market, and proposes measures to the Government in case of any disturbance in the oil market. The intervention plan in case of accidental disruption to the market supply of crude oil and petroleum products (Official Gazette No. 68/2008) establishes procedures and criteria for identification of an extraordinary disturbance in

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market supply of oil and petroleum products and procedures for normalisation of the market supply of oil and petroleum products. This includes: measures to reduce petroleum products consumption conditions for consumption renewal of compulsory stocks of oil and petroleum products
The Expert commission is responsible for the enforcement of the Intervention plan.

Croatia has recently changed its legislative framework to meet the EU requirements on oil stocks and now it completely complies with the Directive 2009/119/EC in its legal acts. The various sub-laws and regulations will follow within a year.
7.11. Road Map

Croatia is the most advanced Beneficiary of the study in terms of compliance with Directive 2009/119/EC. Croatia appears to have adequate tankage capacity expansion and emergency oil stockpiling plans envisaged and should continue with these. The organisational structure for holding, auditing and reporting emergency stocks is in place. The Consultant has been informed that HANDA has completed ticketing arrangements for emergency stocks to be held in Germany and Hungary. This arrangement should be adequate to meet Croatias obligation under Directive 2009/119/EC. However, the Consultant has not seen the detail of the agreements and recommends that Croatia keeps the Energy Community informed of the details. The Consultants envisaged road map for Croatian compliance is shown in Figure 35 which allows flexibility for facilities construction or utilising the ticketing arrangements.

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Figure 35 Road Map Gantt Diagram, Croatia
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8. FYR Macedonia
FYR Macedonia has no domestic production of crude oil. Crude oil supply is sent by pipeline from the Thessaloniki refinery in Greece to the OKTA refinery which produces sufficient petroleum products for the domestic market.

The following figures provide a summary of the current and forecast position in FYR Macedonia based on the methodology outlined in Section 3.1.
Figure 36 Crude Oil Import, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020
1.600 1.400 1.200 1.000 x 1 000 t 800 600 400 200 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020

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Figure 37 Net Production of Petroleum Products, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020

1.400 1.200 1.000 x 1 000 t 800 600 400 200 0 2007 LPG 2008 Motor gasoline 2009 2010 2015 Gas/diesel oil 2020 Residual fuel oil
Kerosene and jet fuel
Figure 38 Petroleum Product Imports, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020

400 350 300 x 1 000 t 250 200 150 100 50 0 2007 LPG Naphtha Bitumen 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 Motor gasoline Gas/diesel oil Lubricants Kerosene and jet fuel Petrol coke Other

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Figure 39 Petroleum Product Exports, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020

700 600 500 x 1 000 t 400 300 200 100 0 2007 2008 LPG Gas/diesel oil Bitumen 2009 2010 Motor gasoline Residual fuel oil Other 2015 2020 Kerosene and jet fuel Petrol coke
Figure 40 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020

1.000
800
x 1 000 t
600
400
200
0 2007 LPG Naphtha Petrol coke Other 2008 2009 2010 Motor gasoline Gas/diesel oil Bitumen 2015 2020 Kerosene and jet fuel Residual fuel oil Lubricants

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Figure 41 Oil Product Supply and Demands, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020

1.500
1.000
x 1 000 t
500
0 Production -500 Import Export Consumption
-1.000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020

The following tables give the Consultants calculated emergency oil stocks obligation for FYR Macedonia based on the methodology given in Section 3.2.
Table 50 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, FYR Macedonia, 20092020
2009 967 32 -28 -21 32 -76 41 6 10 1 964 2.6
2010 1,060 20 -75 -20 -47 -164 62 5 10 1 851 2.3
2015 1,270 26 -211 -33 -252 -6 69 8 11 1 882 2.4
2020 1,352 37 -222 -35 -252 -42 85 10 12 1 946 2.6

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Table 51 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, FYR Macedonia, 2009-2020
2009 238 8 -7 -5 8 -19 10 1 2 0 238
2010 261 5 -18 -5 -12 -41 15 1 2 0 210
2015 313 6 -52 -8 -62 -1 17 2 3 0 218
2020 333 9 -55 -9 -62 -10 21 2 3 0 233
Table 52 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, FYR Macedonia, 2009-2020
2009 148 2 452 291 892 2.4
2010 138 2 475 221 836 2.3
2015 144 2 518 194 858 2.3
2020 159 1 574 160 893 2.4
Table 53 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, FYR Macedonia, 2009-2020
2009 25 0 75 49 149
2010 23 0 79 37 140
2015 24 0 87 32 143
2020 27 0 96 27 149
Assuming that FYR Macedonia would not make a commitment to maintain at least 30 days of specific stocks, than at least one third of its stockholding obligation has to be in the form of products (Table 54).

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Table 54 Stockholding Obligations According to Average Daily Net Imports, FYR Macedonia, 2010-2021
2010
79 158 238 90
2011
70 140 210 90
2016
73 145 218 90
2021
78 155 233 90
Table 55 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, FYR Macedonia, 2010-2021
2010 12 0 37 24 182 254
2011 11 0 36 17 160 224
2016 11 0 40 15 166 233
2021 13 0 46 13 178 249
On the basis of the proposed composition of compulsory stocks, the required volume of storage until 2021 is shown in Table 56.
Table 56 Required Volume of Storage for Compulsory Stocks, FYR Macedonia, 20102021
2010 16,004 208 43,750 26,619 217,892 304,473
2011 14,111 182 43,389 19,005 192,324 269,010
2016 14,862 159 47,847 16,882 199,533 279,284
2021 16,900 126 54,456 14,298 213,802 299,582

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This section provides a summary of the Consultants understanding of the current oil infrastructure within FYR Macedonia
Figure 42 Oil Infrastructure, FYR Macedonia
The OKTA refinery near Skopje has a nameplate capacity of 2.5 Mt/y but operates with a low level of utilisation. The OKTA refinery produces motor gasoline of EURO V standard, leaded motor gasoline with maximum 0.005 g/l of lead, diesel fuel of euro IV and V quality, jet fuel, LPG, extra light fuel oil with 1,000 ppm of sulphur, and fuel oil (80% with maximum 1% of sulphur for domestic market and 20% with maximum 2% sulphur for the UNMIK market). The refinery sells to FYR Macedonia, UNMIK and southern Serbia. The refinery uses the Port of Thessaloniki for imports of crude oil via the Vardax pipeline connecting Thessaloniki and OKTA refinery. The pipeline is about 213 km long and has capacity of 2.5 Mt/y. The storage capacity for oil and oil products in FYR Macedonia totals 468,420 m3. All of the storage capacity except in OKTA refinery and tip are owned by Makpetrol Company and amount to approximately 75,000 m3 located in different regions throughout FYR Macedonia. The OKTA refinery also has
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rented crude oil storage capacities in the Port of Thessaloniki (Greece) of 195,000 m3. FYR Macedonia has no ports and no pipelines. Oil products are imported mostly by railroad and exported mostly by road transport.

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Table 57 Petroleum Products Storage Capacities, FYR Macedonia
Location
Skopje - OKTA refinery
Skopje
Gostivar Ohrid
Prilep
Kocani
Kavadarci Kumanovo Veles Tetovo
tip
Product Crude oil Semi products LPG Motor gasoline Jet fuel Diesel Gas oil Fuel oil LPG Motor gasoline Jet fuel Diesel Gas oil LPG Motor gasoline Motor gasoline Diesel Gas oil Motor gasoline Jet fuel Diesel Gas oil Motor gasoline Jet fuel Diesel Gas oil Motor gasoline Diesel Gas oil Motor gasoline Gas oil Fuel oil Diesel Gas oil LPG Motor gasoline Diesel Gas oil Fuel oil
Total
Capacity (m3) 150,000 29,000 6,000 48,000 8,700 41,000 20,300 79,600 500 300 1,020 27,800 10,100 1,000 7,500 100 200 200 2,050 50 300 650 1,000 150 1,000 300 1,000 900 500 5,400 2,700 10,000 100 200 400 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 468,420

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Emergency oil stocks for FYR Macedonia are held in the storage capacity of OKTA refinery and private companies. A summary of the current stock holding is given here.
Table 58 Emergency Stocks Held by OKTA Refinery, FYR Macedonia
Product Motor gasoline 95 Motor gasoline 98 Diesel Gas oil Fuel oil LPG
Quantity (t) 5,662.5 906.0 6,760.0 6,892.0 8,000.0 202.9
Table 59 Emergency Stocks Held by Makpetrol, FYR Macedonia
Product Motor gasoline 95 Motor gasoline 98 Diesel Gas oil Fuel oil
Quantity (t) 4,490.6 245.4 17,762.3 7,723.3 3,939.4
Table 60 Emergency Stocks Held by Lukoil, FYR Macedonia
Product Motor gasoline 95 Motor gasoline 98 Diesel Gas oil
Quantity (t) 302.0 502.0 169.0 507.0
Table 61 Total Quantity of Emergency Stocks held in FYR Macedonia
Product Motor gasoline 95 Motor gasoline 98 Diesel Gas oil Fuel oil LPG Total
Quantity (t) 10,455.1 1,653.4 24,691.3 15,122.3 11,939.4 202.9 64,064.4

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Table 62 Coverage of Days of Consumption, FYR Macedonia
Product Motor gasoline Gas oil Fuel oil LPG
Days of coverage 35.9 38.6 18.0 1.2
Petroleum products stocks are approximately equal to the calculated quantities required to be held as emergency oil stocks. However, the overall requirement for emergency oil stocks is not covered and the Consultant estimates that the remaining emergency oil stocks should be made up of approximately 180,000 tonnes of crude oil. The target of the Government of FYR Macedonia is to have 70% reserves of products in the country and 30% of reserves in form of tickets by the end of 2015. According to the Mid-term Programme for the Period 2010-2015, the establishment, preservation, restoration and use of the compulsory reserves of oil and oil derivatives, refers to: all types of motor and air gasoline all types of diesel fuel and kerosene extra light oil for household EL 1 LPG fuel oil

In order to implement the legal commitments on basis of the Division Balance (fuel reserve make-up), the Directorate for compulsory reserves of oil and oil derivatives took over the reserves from the Agency for Commodity Reserves as the competent authority in 2010. The Directorate does not possess its own storage for petroleum products, but performs this activity by renting excise storage owned by the licensed trade companies for storage and keeping the compulsory reserves. The storage in FYR Macedonia has a limited capacity to store the total quantities of compulsory reserves that should be established in accordance to requirements of the law for 90 days consumption. In order to overcome this, the Directorate can build its own capacity, store the reserves in rented capacity outside its national borders on the territory of EU member states by concluding bilateral agreements between the FYR Macedonia and EU member states, or hold part of the stocks in the form of tickets.
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8.6. Legal Review

The Law on Compulsory Reserves of Oil and Oil Derivatives (Official Gazette No. 84/08) regulates the formation, storing, renewal and use of the obligatory reserves of oil and oil derivates, the jurisdiction of the Directorate for compulsory reserves of oil and oil derivatives and other issues of significance for the obligatory reserves of oil and petroleum products. This Law harmonised the FYR Macedonia legislation with EU Council Directive 2006/67/EC. In order to enhance the security of supply in the field of oil stocks, the Midterm Programme for establishment of compulsory reserves of oil and oil derivatives, construction, maintenance and buying of storage capacities 20102015 has been adopted by the Government. The Programme was prepared by the Directorate according to the Article 4 of the Law on compulsory reserves of oil and oil derivatives. The overall aim of the Programme is ensuring the security of supply of oil derivatives, where the total quantities of mandatory reserves for each type of oil derivative should reach coverage of realised average daily consumption of that oil derivative for a period of 90 days in the previous calendar year (or 25% of the total realised consumption of the relevant type of oil derivative in the previous calendar year). The indicators for the realised average daily consumption of oil derivatives in 2009, for each derivative separately are applied for preparation of the emergency oil stocks management programme. According to the Mid-term Programme, in the 5 year period, the following will be settled: The type, quantity and value of oil derivatives The manner of storage and renewal and costs for storage and renewal of compulsory oil and oil derivatives reserves The funds needed for financing the Mid-term Programme
The Directorate for Compulsory Reserves of Oil and Oil Derivatives makes agreements with authorised trading and storage companies that possess a licence for storing oil or petroleum products and pursuant to the Law are obliged to store the compulsory reserves. Pursuant to the Decree for Determining the Amount of the Compensation for Storage and Evaporation of the Compulsory Reserves of Oil Derivates (Official Gazette No. 44/2010), the companies that are obliged to store oil derivatives from the compulsory reserves are authorized to use oil derivatives for their own needs up to 30% per derivative, in the current calendar year. Companies have an obligation for the entire quantities of the oil derivatives used in this respect, to restock the compulsory reserves by 31 December each year. Income that companies realise from such use of the compulsory
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reserves is considered as payment of the compensation for storage, keeping, renewal and evaporation of oil derivatives from the compulsory reserves, by the Directorate. The Decree on the method for determining, calculating and payment of the amount of compensation for the compulsory reserves of oil and oil products that are payable on imports and / or production of oil products (Official Gazette No. 138/09) defines the method of fee calculation for compulsory reserves as that which is payable by the importers and producers of petroleum products for products sold on the FYR Macedonia market. The Directorate is authorised to perform inspection of the compulsory reserves which are stored in the tankage of the licensed trade companies. Inspection shall be performed on the basis of Directorates internal procedure in the form of mandatory controls.

The financing of the oil stocks is set by the Law on Compulsory Reserves of Oil and Oil Derivatives and shall be provided by the following: fee for mandatory reserves of oil and oil derivatives paid during both import of oil derivatives and production of oil derivatives funds realized on the basis of international cooperation of programmes and projects donations from domestic and foreign legal entities and natural persons foundations and gifts other sources
These funds shall represent income of the Directorate for compulsory reserves of oil and oil derivatives and are to be paid into a separate account, held with the treasury. The Decree on the method for determining, calculating, and payment of the amount of compensation for the compulsory reserves of oil and oil products that are payable on imports and / or production of oil products (Official Gazette No.138/09) are set as follows: light distillates or light oil products (liquid petroleum gas LPG butane, propane and butane propane mixtures, all types of motor gasoline and gasoline for aviation) - 0.89 MKD/litre high or middle distillates petroleum products (all types of vehicle diesel, gas oil or extra light heating oil and kerosene) - 0.30 MKD/litre heavy distillates and heavy oil products (all types) - 0.74 MKD/kg
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The fee is paid by the importers and producers of oil derivatives so it is included in the retail price of petroleum products. The total obligation of emergency stocks to be held in the period of 2011-2021 (Table 54) increases and amounts to 233,000 toe in 2021. According to the proposed structure of compulsory stocks, it is necessary to have 106,000 m3 of storage for petroleum products, and 215,000 m3 for crude oil by 2020 (Table 56). It is estimated that in FYR Macedonia, there are about 77,000 m3 of storage capacity available for oil products. Accordingly, it is necessary to build additional 29,000 m3 of storage capacity for oil products and 215,000 m3 for crude oil (Table 63). Total investment in construction of new storage capacities is estimated at 50 million.
Table 63 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage, FYR Macedonia, 2010-2021
Construction m3 29,000 6,960,000 215,000 43,000,000 244,000 49,960,000
In accordance with the calculated total obligation up to 2021 FYR Macedonia needs to invest in the purchase of petroleum products and crude oil in amount of 79.8 million (Table 64).
Table 64 Needed Investment in Crude Oil and Products Purchase, FYR Macedonia, 2010-2020
Tonnes 7,175 178,097 185,272
3,287,403 76,537,138 79,824,541
The realisation of the Mid-term Programme requires having 70% of the stockholding obligation in FYR Macedonia and provision for the remaining 30% by tickets in other countries. Until the end of 2015 the required investments could be covered by the average fee paid by the importers and manufacturers of petroleum products per litre of gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil and LPG placed on the market amounting to 0,020 /l. After achievement of 90 days stockholding obligation fee would decrease because it would only include costs of storage ticketing and operational costs of FYR Macedonia based storage.
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Figure 43 Proposed Build-up of Emergency Stocks Formation in FYR Macedonia, 20122020
300 Crude oil 250 200 x 1 000 t 150 100 50 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Products Tickets
On the other hand, if FYR Macedonia chooses to meet its whole obligation in its own territory until the end of 2015 in physical stocks the average fee paid by the importers and manufacturers of petroleum products per each litre of gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil and LPG placed on the market would amount to 0.033 /l.

Pursuant to the Law, the Directorate for compulsory reserves of oil and oil derivatives was established as a separate independent entity which is responsible for establishment, stocking, renewal and management of compulsory reserves of oil and oil derivatives. The Directorate for compulsory reserves of oil and oil derivatives has the following organisational structure:

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Figure 44 Organisation of Directorate for Compulsory Reserves of Oil and Oil Derivatives, FYR Macedonia
The Directorate is led by the Director who is appointed by the Government of the FYR Macedonia. The Director is appointed with a mandate of 4 years with possibility for repeated selection. Along with the Director, the Directorate is managed by the Management Board composed of 7 members. The members of the Management Board of the Directorate are appointed by the Government of the FYR Macedonia.

The procedure in case of oil and petroleum products supply disruption is stipulated under the Energy Law (Official Gazette No. 63/06, 36/07, 106/08 and 115/10). In the case of disruption of the energy system the Government shall, upon proposal of the Ministry, announce the criteria and requirements for a declaration of crisis, as well as the manner of supply of certain types of energy in such circumstances, the rights and obligations of the license holders regarding the pursuing of energy activities pursuant to the Law on Crisis Management (Official Gazette No. 29/05). The Rulebook on the conditions and manner and procedure for issuing, changing, extension of licenses (Official Gazette No. 31/09) for practicing energy entities determines that the License contains requirements on the supply of practicing the activity under special conditions such as force majeure, change of conditions on the world market, extraordinary events and a conflict situation. It also requires that the annual report that each licensee

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has to submit to the Energy Regulatory Commission includes information on supply measures when these in these special conditions arise.

FYR Macedonia has a legislative framework according to the EU requirements on the oil stocks but it has to include recent changes in Directive 2009/119/EC in its legal acts. These changes regard to: The method of calculation of the obligatory oil stocks (90 days of average daily net imports) - Article 3 of the Directive; Annexes I, II and III of the Directive There is an obligation to submit statistical summaries of the level of emergency stocks on a regular bases for each month - Article 12 and Annex IV of the Directive 2009/119/EC There is an obligation to submit statistical summaries of the level of commercial stocks on a regular bases for each month - Article 14 of the Directive 2009/119/EC Biofuels can be taken into account when calculating stockholding obligation - Article 16 of the Directive 2009/119/EC The procedure in case of supply disruptions are to be refined to include the Commission and IEA to the process - Article 20 of the Directive 2009/119/EC
8.11. Road Map

FYR Macedonia has in place what the Consultant regards as adequate organisational structures for monitoring and reporting the level of stocks. In terms of the legal aspects, the Law on Compulsory Reserves of Oil and Oil Derivatives (Official Gazette No. 84/08) should be amended in order to comply with Directive 2009/119/EC. The Consultant believes the legislative changes should be minor and passed relatively quickly. The infrastructure demands should be achievable within the required time frame. The use of external storage ticketing does significantly reduce the capital cost and allows for a concentration of storage of petroleum products nearer to where they would be required within FYR Macedonia. What may take longer is negotiating storage by ticketing arrangements within other countries. To facilitate stocks being held in other countries, there needs to be strong and binding agreements between the countries that hold the emergency stocks and the country owner of those stocks and also the stockholding entities relevant economic entities. It is the Consultants conclusion that agreements would have to cover the following as a minimum to comply with Directive 2009/119/EC:
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Title at Country Level Title at Central Stock Holding Entity / Storage Provider Level Rights of access at the country level Rights of access at the CSE / Storage Provider level Provisions for drawdown of emergency stocks All the above must apply when both countries are undergoing a period of supply interruption
FYR Macedonia might find these agreements difficult to conclude to a satisfactory level within the timeframe. The Consultants envisaged time frame is set out in Figure 45 and further discussion is given to region cooperation is given in Section 16. Whilst FYR Macedonia does not have any intention to have the CSE body owning any facilities, the Consultant recommends that negotiations are opened promptly and FYR Macedonia keeps an open mind in terms of facilities construction and possible joint ownership if this is cost effective.

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Figure 45 Road Map Gantt Diagram, FYR Macedonia
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9. Moldova
Moldova is currently establishing its reporting of the oil market and as such this section is limited but all information made available is presented here with the Consultants analysis.

The following figures provide a summary of the current and forecast position in Moldova based on the methodology outlined in Section 3.1.
Figure 46 Crude Oil Production, Moldova, 2007-2020
16 14 12 10 x 1 000 t 8 6 4 2 0 2007 2008 2010 2015 2020
Figure 47 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Moldova, 2007-2020

14 12 10 x 1 000 t 8 6 4 2 0 2007 2008 Gas/diesel oil 2010 2015 Residual fuel oil 2020

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Figure 48 Petroleum Product Imports, Moldova, 2007-2020

1.200 1.000 800 x 1 000 t 600 400 200 0 2007 LPG Residual fuel oil 2008 Motor gasoline Bitumen 2010 2015 Kerosene and jet fuel Lubricants 2020 Gas/diesel oil Other
Figure 49 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Moldova, 2007-2020

1.200 1.000 800 x 1 000 t 600 400 200 0 2007 LPG Residual fuel oil 2008 Motor gasoline Bitumen 2010 2015 2020 Gas/diesel oil Other Kerosene and jet fuel Lubricants

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Figure 50 Oil Product Supply and Demand, Moldova, 2007-2020

1.200 1.000 800 x 1 000 t 600 400 200 0 Production -200 2007 2008 2010 2015 2020 Import Export Consumption

The following tables give the Consultants calculated emergency oil stocks obligation for Moldova based on the methodology given in Section 3.2.
Table 65 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, Moldova, 2008-2020
2008
0 69 232 26 403 9 0 23 10 3 774 2.1
2010
0 64 233 22 415 16 0 32 13 1 797 2.2
2015
0 84 271 28 500 18 0 48 16 1 966 2.6
2020
0 105 313 33 593 20 0 63 19 1 1,146 3.1

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Table 66 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, Moldova, 2008-2020
2008 0 17 57 6 99 2 0 6 2 1 191
2010 0 16 58 6 102 4 0 8 3 0 197
2015 0 21 67 7 123 4 0 12 4 0 238
2020 0 26 77 8 146 5 0 15 5 0 283
Table 67 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Moldova, 2008-2020
2008
250 22 443 20 734 2.0
2010
263 25 474 27 789 2.2
2015
306 31 570 28 935 2.6
2020
353 38 674 31 1,095 3.0
Table 68 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Moldova, 2008-2020
2008
42 4 74 3 123
2010
44 4 79 4 132
2015
51 5 95 5 156
2020
59 6 113 5 183
Given the fact that Moldova has negligible refinery capacity, it was assumed that the total of their stockholding obligation would be in the form of products (Table 69).

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Table 69 Stockholding Obligations According to Average Daily Net Imports, Moldova, 2009-2021
2009
191 0 191 90
2011
197 0 197 90
2016
238 0 238 90
2021
283 0 283 90
Table 70 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Moldova, 2009-2021
2009
59 5 106 5 0 175
2011
60 6 108 6 0 180
2016
71 7 133 7 0 218
2021
83 9 159 7 0 259
On the basis of proposed composition of compulsory stocks, the required volume of storage until 2021 is given in Table 71.
Table 71 Required Volume of Storage for Compulsory Stocks, Moldova, 2009-2021
2009 79,304 6,773 125,615 5,462 0 217,153
2011 80,113 7,577 128,955 6,813 0 223,458
2016 95,150 9,652 158,298 7,398 0 270,498
2021 111,298 11,749 189,811 8,158 0 321,016

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This section gives a summary of what the Consultant understands to be the current oil infrastructure within Moldova.
Figure 51 Oil Infrastructure, Moldova
The only port on the Danube River is the Giurgiulesti International Free Port (GIFP) in the southernmost part of Moldova. It consists of a petroleum terminal, a cargo port and an industrial free zone. Due to its location on the Lower Danube with available water depths of up to 7m, GIFP is capable of receiving both inland and sea going vessels with a loading capacity of 10,000 tons. The Port has road and rail links. The maximum transhipment capacity is in excess of 2 million tonnes per year. At the Giurgiulesti terminal there are eight tanks for petroleum products with capacities from 4,200 to 12,000 m3 totalling 63,600 m3. The port operator and owner is ICS Danube Logistics SRL. The current petroleum products storage capacity is over 150,000 tons including state and industry storage capacity but excluding the armys capacity. Detailed data about current storage capacities is not available. The oil refinery in Komrat began operation in 2005 and it is the first refinery in the country. The refinery has a processing capacity of 600 bbl/d (30,000 tons/year) and processes crude oil extracted from a field in the southern region of Valeni, one of the countrys two oil fields.

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There are no oil pipelines in Moldova.

According to available data at the time there are no emergency oil and petroleum products reserves in Moldova.

As Moldova has got very limited storage capacities it should consider building required storage capacities or arrange bilateral agreement with the neighbouring country/countries for holding required quantities of stocks. In the case of Moldova building its own storage, the required capacity is about 327,000 m3 for compliance in 2021.
9.6. Legal Review

According to available data there is no particular legislation dealing with emergency oil stocks. According to the current legislation, the industry does not have any legal obligation to maintain petroleum stocks. For their own business purposes, however, they keep stocks in the tankage of importers and petrol stations. Currently Moldovas industry keeps stocks of around 30 days consumption of the main petroleum products (gasoline, diesel and LPG).

Total obligation of emergency stocks to be held in the period of 2011-2021 (Table 69) is estimated to increase to 283,000 toe by 2021. According to the proposed structure of compulsory stocks it is necessary to ensure 327,000 m3 of storage for petroleum products by 2020. It is estimated that in Moldova, there is currently no storage capacity available for emergency stocks. Total investment in construction of new storage capacities is estimated at 78.5 million (Table 72).
Table 72 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage Capacities Construction, Moldova, 2010-2020
Oil products
Construction m3 327,000 78,480,000
In accordance with the calculated total obligation to 2021, Moldova needs to purchase petroleum products costing 130.6 million (Table 73).

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Table 73 Needed Investment in Crude Oil and Products Purchase, Moldova, 2010-2020
Oil products
Tonnes 259,104 130,619,255
In order to finance emergency stocks formation in Moldova, the Consultant recommends collection of fee paid by the producers and importers of petroleum products. The expenses of stockholding system would be transferred to retail price of motor fuels. An appropriate body should be responsible for collection of the fee. The requirement for the construction of new the facilities (Table 74) and the formation or acquisition of stocks were defined for the purpose of calculating the compensation to be paid by importers and producers of petroleum products per each litre of gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil and LPG sold on the Moldova market. The proposed scenario results in costs that include investments in storage facilities, procurement of petroleum products inventories, and renewal of stocks as well as operational costs of the system (Table 75). The defined emergency oil stock formation scenario (Figure 52) and given the forecast consumption of petroleum products in Moldova, the average fee paid by the importers and manufacturers of petroleum products per each litre of gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil and LPG sold would amount to 0.022 /l. Such fee ensures the formation of 90-day supplies of petroleum products by the year 2020 in Moldova.
Table 74 Storage Tank Construction Plan, Moldova, 2010-2020
m3 Oil products
2012 60,000
2014 80,000
2016 60,000
2018 60,000
2020 67,000
Table 75 Planned Costs (Storage Capacities, Crude Oil and Products Procurement and Operational Costs), Moldova, 2010-2020
1 000 Oil products
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0 39,510 912 53,592 2,128 41,638 3,040 42,550 3,952 48,071

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Figure 52 Proposed Build-up of Emergency Stocks Formation in Moldova, 2012-2020

300 Oil products 250 200 x 1 000 t 150 100 50 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Moldova should consider the best way of organising the oil stocks system and according to that formation of a relevant body that manage oil stocks. This could be an independent newly formed body or a body in existing governmental structure.

There is no information on the legal framework for cases of supply disruptions in Moldova. Moldova should create a legal framework and decision structure in case of oil supply disruption in conformity to its laws and propositions of Article 20 of the Directive 2009/119/EC.

Moldova should design complete legal framework regarding the emergency oil stocks in compliance with the Directive 2009/119/EC.
9.11. Road Map

In the Consultants opinion, Moldova needs to develop a complete system for emergency oil stocks storage and an envisaged timeline is presented below.

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Figure 53 Road Map Gantt Diagram, Moldova
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10. Montenegro
Montenegro is a net importer of petroleum products. Most of the products are imported from Greece as the largest oil company Jugopetrol is owned by Hellenic Petroleum. Jugopetrol owns almost half of the petrol stations in Montenegro as well as a few stations in BiH and large storage capacities in the Port of Bar.

The following figures provide a summary of the current and forecast position in Montenegro based on the methodology outlined in Section 3.1.
Figure 54 Petroleum Product Imports, Montenegro, 2007-2020
600 500 400 x 1 000 t 300 200 100 0 2007 LPG Residual fuel oil 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 Motor gasoline Petrol coke Kerosene and jet fuel Bitumen Gas/diesel oil Lubricants

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Figure 55 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Montenegro, 2007-2020

600
500
400 x 1 000 t
300
200
100
0 2007 2008 2009 Motor gasoline Petrol coke 2010 Kerosene and jet fuel Bitumen 2015 Gas/diesel oil Lubricants 2020 LPG Residual fuel oil
Figure 56 Oil Product Supply and Demand, Montenegro, 2007-2020

600
500
400 x 1 000 t
300 200
100
0 Production 2007 Import 2008 2009 2010 Export 2015 2020 Consumption

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The following tables give the Consultants calculated emergency oil stocks obligation for Montenegro based on the methodology given in Section 3.2.
Table 76 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, Montenegro 20092020
2009 0 16 69 0 193 54 17 3 1 0 353 1.0
2010 0 18 72 0 205 80 35 16 1 0 426 1.2
2015 0 22 75 1 238 92 46 36 1 0 511 1.4
2020 0 24 76 1 277 101 47 35 1 0 562 1.5
Table 77 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, Montenegro, 2009-2020
2009 0 4 17 0 48 13 4 1 0 0 87
2010 0 4 18 0 50 20 9 4 0 0 105
2015 0 5 19 0 59 23 11 9 0 0 126
2020 0 6 19 0 68 25 12 9 0 0 139

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Table 78 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Montenegro, 2009-2020
2009 78 0 217 61 357 1.0
2010 81 0 231 90 401 1.1
2015 85 1 268 103 457 1.3
2020 86 2 312 113 513 1.4
Table 79 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Montenegro, 2009-2020
2009 13 0 36 10 60
2010 13 0 39 15 67
2015 14 0 45 17 76
2020 14 0 52 19 86
Given the fact that Montenegro has no indigenous capacity for processing crude oil, it was assumed that the total of its stockholding obligation would be in the form of oil products (Table 80).
Table 80 Stockholding Obligations According to Average Daily Net Imports, Montenegro, 2010-2021
2010 87 0 87 90
2011 105 0 105 90
2016 126 0 126 90
2021 139 0 139 90
Table 81 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Montenegro, 2010-2021
2010 17 0 49 14 0 80
2011 19 0 55 22 0 96
2016 21 0 68 26 0 116
2021 21 0 77 28 0 127
On the basis of proposed composition of compulsory stocks, the required volume of storage to 2021 is shown in Table 82.

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Table 82 Required Volume of Storage for Compulsory Stocks, Montenegro, 2010-2021
2010 23,279 106 57,782 15,402 0 96,569
2011 25,843 189 65,900 24,187 0 116,120
2016 28,538 399 80,629 29,329 0 138,895
2021 28,317 548 92,150 31,549 0 152,565

This section provides a summary of the Consultants understanding of the oil infrastructure within Montenegro.
Figure 57 Oil Infrastructure, Montenegro
There are no pipelines or refineries in Montenegro. The total storage capacity is around 212,000 tons. Most storage facilities are located in three locations: Port of Bar, Lipci on the coast at Boka Kotorska Bay and Bijelo Polje in the northeast of Montenegro.

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Table 83 Petroleum Products Storage Capacities, Montenegro
Location Bar Lipci Bijelo Polje Airport Tivat Airport Podgorica Niki Podgorica Total
*military storage
Product Motor gasoline Diesel and fuel oil Motor gasoline Diesel Motor gasoline Diesel n/a Jet fuel Jet fuel n/a LPG
Capacity (m3) 51,570 76,200 14,900 7,600 6,500 20,700 21,000* 7,860 410 5,800 310 212,850
About 10% of imported petroleum products are transported by road and the rest by tankers to the sea port of Bar. The Port of Bar can accept large ships and tankers. The terminal for petroleum products in the port of Bar is comprised of two parts, old and new. The old berth is designed to receive ships up to 5,000 dwt while the new berth is designed for vessels up to 80,000 dwt. The new berth with three marine loading arms of 200 mm diameter with manual controls is today mainly used for unloading, due to market demands and size of tankers to deliver oil products. The old berth is only used for unloading of smaller ships and pleasure craft.

Currently there are no strategic reserves of petroleum products or crude oil in Montenegro.

Montenegro Bonus is a company formed by the Government of Montenegro. It operates storage for oil and oil products, general cargo and pharmaceutical products. There is potentially 67,000 m3 of tankage for oil products in three locations which could be utilised for emergency oil stocks. All three storage facilities need modernisation in order to comply with EU standards. Two of the three Montenegro Bonus oil product storage facilities are involved in a legal dispute but it is expected to be resolved in favour of Montenegro Bonus. It is therefore presumed that all Montenegro Bonus oil products tankage are going to be used to store emergency stocks, although legal issues might slow down the process of modernisation and use for emergency stockholding purposes. The rest of the stocks are presumed to be stored in leased storages of

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companies active within the Montenegro market. Up to 2020, additional storage capacity of ~39,000 m3 will be required.
10.6. Legal Review

The new Energy Law approved by Parliament on 22 April 2010 (Official Gazette No. 01-70/25) requires that strategic reserves of oil and petroleum products are equal to 90 days of average domestic consumption in the previous year. Management of strategic reserves is a public service which is to be carried out by a legal person established by the government. A fee for establishing, maintenance, and management of strategic reserves will be charged in accordance with a Government Regulation. Strategic reserves of oil and petroleum products may be stored in Montenegro or in other countries. A Decree on strategic reserves of oil products that will define the requirement of 90 days coverage is in the process of adoption by the Government. It will define the manner of formation, maintenance and management of strategic stocks of oil and oil products. Strategic reserves of oil and petroleum products shall be ensured by legal persons selling to their customers at least 25 tonnes of crude oil or petroleum products in a previous year, and by new market participants, whose obligation is calculated on the basis of an estimate of sales in the first year of business operation, which shall be at least 50 tonnes of crude oil or petroleum products. According to Article 10 in the proposed Decree importers are required to provide the strategic reserves until 31 December 2021. The reserves are supposed to provide 10% per year of 90 days of average yearly consumption in Montenegro, starting from 31 December 2011. The secondary legislation in place includes a rulebook concerning Licenses in the Energy Sector of Montenegro of 2004, amended in 2009 on commercial transport, storage and distribution, sale and supply of petroleum products.

Energy Law Article 174 stipulates that for legal persons that sold to their customers at least 25 tonnes of crude oil or petroleum products in a previous year (for new market participants, the obligation is calculated on the basis of estimate of sale in the first year of business operation, which shall be at least 50 tonnes of crude oil or petroleum products) shall pay a charge for establishing, maintenance, and management of strategic reserves in accordance with the Government's regulation. All financial aspects of oil stocks will be stipulated by the new Regulation on strategic oil stocks with the possibility of some supplementary legislation. The total obligation of emergency stocks to be held in the period 2011-2021 (Table 80) increases and amounts to 139,000 toe in 2021. According to the
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proposed structure of compulsory stocks it is necessary to ensure 161,000 m3 of storage for petroleum products by 2020. It is estimated that in Montenegro, there are about 122,200 m3 of storage capacity available for oil products. Accordingly, it is necessary to build an additional 38,800 m3 of storage capacity for oil products (Table 84). Total investment in construction of new storage capacities and modernization of existing facilities is estimated at 15.8 million.
Table 84 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage, Montenegro, 2010-2020
Oil products
Construction m3 38,800 9,312,000
Modernisation m3 67,200 6,451,200
In accordance to the calculated total obligation up to 2021 Montenegro needs to invest in the purchase of petroleum products costing 59.6 million (Table 85).
Table 85 Needed Investment in Oil Products Purchase, Montenegro, 2010-2020
Oil products
Tonnes 127,140
59,612,701
In order to raise finance for emergency stocks formation in Montenegro, the Consultant recommends collection of fee paid by the producers and importers of petroleum products. As the petroleum products price is government regulated the cost of the stockholding system would be included in the retail price of motor fuels. The liable body should be responsible for collection of fees. The scenario of modernization of existing storage capacity (Table 86), construction of new facilities (Table 87) and the formation or acquisition of stocks were defined for the purpose of calculating the compensation to be paid by importers and producers of petroleum products per each litre of gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil and LPG placed on the market of Montenegro. This results in costs that include investments in storage facilities, procurement of petroleum products and crude oil inventories, renewal of stocks as well as operational costs of the entire system (Table 88).
Table 86 Storage Tank Modernisation Plan, Montenegro, 2010-2020 m3 2012 27,200 2014 17,500 2016 22,500 2018 0 2020 0
Oil products

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Table 87 Storage Tank Construction Plan, Montenegro, 2010-2020 m

3
2012 0
2014 0
2016 0
Oil products
2018 20,000
2020 18,800
Table 88 Planned Costs (Storage Capacities, Crude Oil and Products Procurement and Operational Costs), Montenegro, 2010-2020 1000
Oil products
2011 2012 0 13,227
2013 2014 413 16,730
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 983 25,586 1,857 14,463 2,161 12,990
With the defined scenario of emergency oil stocks formation (Figure 58) and forecast consumption of petroleum products in Montenegro, the average fee paid by the importers and manufacturers of petroleum products per each litre of gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil and LPG placed on the market would amount to 0.018 /l. Such a fee ensures the formation of 90-day supplies of oil and petroleum products by the year 2020 in Montenegro.
Figure 58 Proposed Build-up of Emergency Stocks Formation in Montenegro, 20112020
160 Products 140 120 x 1000 t 100 80 60 40 20 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Management of strategic reserves is a public service which shall be carried out by a legal person established by the Government pursuant to the Energy Law. The Government would impose responsibility for managing oil stocks to an existing legal body or it would form a new body/agency that would perform that task.

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The Law on Emergency Procurement (Official Gazette No. 069/03-29) regulates the procedure in the continuance of supply of the Montenegrin market with the products which are necessary for satisfying the basic needs of the population in conditions of serious market disruption that include natural disasters, direct conflict threat, blockade of Montenegros borders and other similar reasons that cannot be predicted. The Government of Montenegro has adopted a plan for emergency procurement in conditions of serious market disturbances. The plan includes: directives, measures, actions, type, quantity and value of merchandise, as well as supply agent per municipality. Financial means for implementation of the plan are provided by the Ministry of Finance from the budgetary reserves upon prior consent of the Government.
10.10.
Required Legislative Changes
The Energy Law provides general propositions of strategic stocks and according to that Montenegrin Government should bring sub-laws on emergency oil stocks which should comply with all propositions of Directive 2009/119/EC. Moreover, the method of calculation of the obligatory oil stocks in Energy Law should be changed to 90 days of average daily net imports according to Article 3 of the Directive and Annexes I, II and III.
10.11.
Road Map
Montenegro is progressing towards compliance with Directive 2009/119/EC and should continue along this path. Priority must be given to developing a suitable CSE body to oversee the build up, maintenance and reporting of emergency oil stocks. The Consultants envisaged timeline is given in Figure 59.

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Figure 59 Road Map Gantt Diagram, Montenegro
113
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11. Serbia
The Serbian oil industry comprises of a large vertically integrated company (NIS) and several international and private companies. Russian Gazprom-Neft acquired 51% of NIS shares in 2008. NIS is the only company in Serbia with integrated exploitation, processing and sale of petroleum and petroleum products and natural gas exploitation, thus playing an important role in maintaining Serbias energy security. It supplies about 75% of the Serbian oil market. NIS exports motor fuel, benzene, toluene, construction and industrial bitumen to the EU, Ukraine, Croatia, Montenegro and BiH.

The following figures provide a summary of the current and forecast position in Serbia based on the methodology outlined in Section 3.1.
Figure 60 Oil and Condensate Production, Serbia, 2007-2020
1.600 1.400 1.200 1.000 x 1 000 t 800 600 400 200 0 2007 2008 Crude oil 2009 LPG 2010 Other condensate 2015 2020

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Figure 61 Crude Oil Imports, Serbia, 2007-2020

5.000 4.500 4.000 3.500 x 1 000 t 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 0 2007 2008 2009 Crude oil 2010 2015 2020
Figure 62 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Serbia, 2007-2020

6.000 5.000 4.000 x 1 000 t 3.000 2.000 1.000 0 2007 LPG Naphtha Petrol coke Other 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 Motor gasoline Gas/diesel oil Bitumen Kerosene and jet fuel Residual fuel oil Lubricants

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Figure 63 Petroleum Product Imports, Serbia, 2007-2020

1.400 1.200 1.000 x 1 000 t 800 600 400 200 0 2007 LPG Gas/diesel oil Lubricants 2008 2009 Motor gasoline Residual fuel oil Other 2010 2015 Naphtha Bitumen 2020 Kerosene and jet fuel Petrol coke
Figure 64 Petroleum Product Exports, Serbia, 2007-2020

2.500
2.000
x 1 000 t
1.500
1.000
500
0 2007 LPG Naphtha Bitumen 2008 2009 Motor gasoline Gas/diesel oil Lubricants 2010 2015 Kerosene and jet fuel Residual fuel oil Other 2020

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Figure 65 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Serbia, 2007-2020

5.000 4.500 4.000 3.500 x 1 000 t 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 0 2007 LPG Gas/diesel oil Lubricants 2008 2009 Motor gasoline Residual fuel oil Other 2010 2015 Naphtha Bitumen 2020 Kerosene and jet fuel Petrol coke
Figure 66 Oil Products Supply and Demand, Serbia, 2007-2020

6.000 5.000 4.000 3.000 x 1 000 t 2.000 1.000 0 -1.000 -2.000 -3.000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 Production Import Export Consumption

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The following tables give the Consultants calculated emergency oil stocks obligation for Serbia based on the methodology given in Section 3.2.
Table 89 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, Serbia, 2009-2020
2009
2,190 288 -34 -24 490 -123 67 10 17 2 2,881 7.9
2010
2,035 298 -127 -16 502 -22 68 -2 50 64 2,849 7.8
2015
3,298 265 -476 -39 -194 -230 83 -11 55 12 2,762 7.6
2020
4,398 259 -775 -43 -836 -3 98 -56 60 65 3,166 8.7
Table 90 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, Serbia, 2009-2020
2009
540 71 -8 -6 121 -30 16 3 4 0 710
2010
502 74 -31 -4 124 -6 17 0 12 16 702
2015
813 65 -117 -10 -48 -57 20 -3 13 3 681
2020
1,084 64 -191 -11 -206 -1 24 -14 15 16 781

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Table 91 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Serbia, 2009-2020
2009
629 48 1,749 684 3,111 8.5
2010
613 50 1,754 695 3,112 8.5
2015
791 66 1,975 722 3,553 9.7
2020
903 94 2,255 707 3,959 10.8
Table 92 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Serbia, 2009-2020
2009
105 8 292 114 520
2010
102 8 293 116 520
2015
132 11 330 121 594
2020
151 16 377 118 662
Assuming Serbia would not make a commitment to maintain at least 30 days of specific stocks, then at least one third of its stockholding obligation has to be in the form of products (Table 93).
Table 93 Stockholding Obligation According to Average Daily Net Imports, Serbia, 2010-2021
2010
237 474 710 90
2011
234 468 702 90
2016
227 454 681 90
2021
260 520 781 90
Table 94 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Serbia, 2010-2021
2010
44 3 122 48 543 760
2011
42 3 121 48 537 751
2016
46 4 116 42 520 728
2021
54 6 136 43 596 835
On the basis of the proposed composition of compulsory stocks, the required volume of storage until 2021 is given in Table 95.

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Table 95 Required Volume of Storage of Compulsory Stocks, Serbia, 2010-2021
2010
58,497 4,447 145,349 53,640 651,514 913,446
2011
56,400 4,531 144,007 53,853 644,174 902,965
2016
61,749 5,076 137,690 47,487 624,530 876,534
2021
72,566 7,460 161,742 47,857 715,935 1,005,560

This section gives a summary of the Consultants understanding of the current oil infrastructure within Serbia.
Figure 67 Oil Infrastructure, Serbia
Crude oil imports (mainly from Russia) by tankers are brought in via the port of Omialj in Croatia and further to refineries by the JANAF oil pipeline within Croatia and by Transnafta oil pipeline within Serbia. The capacity of the Transnafta pipeline is 9 million tons per year.

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Table 96 Transnafta Pipeline Transportation System, Serbia
Route (from - to) Dunav (Bako Novo Selo) Novi Sad Novi Sad - Panevo
Diameter () 26 18
Length (km) 63,4 91
Volume (1000 m3) 21,2 14,2
The strategic plans of JP Transnafta include development of a multiproduct pipeline system. The total length of the product pipeline is to be 321 km and the project is expected to start 2011 with the first phase of the project being completed by the end of 2013 and the complete system completed in 2016. Altogether storage capacities in Serbia amount about 1.4 million m3 supplied by rail, road and river. There are two Serbian refineries in operation, Panevo and Novi Sad. Panevo is designed for a throughput of max. 4.8 Mt/y, while Novi Sad is designed for a throughput of a maximum of 2.5 Mt/y. The refineries are part of the oil company NIS whose main businesses are exploitation of oil and gas, processing and sale of petroleum and petroleum products. In 2008, GazpromNeft acquired 51% of the shares of NIS. The company has its own retail network of 480 petrol stations and oil storage
Table 97 Crude Oil and Semi Products Storage Capacity, Serbia
Location Panevo Novi Sad
Product Crude oil Semi products Crude oil Semi products
Total capacity (m3) 215,000 155,000 106,000 72,000

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Table 98 Petroleum Products Storage Capacities, Serbia

Location Panevo refinery Novi Sad refinery Zrenjanin Kovaica Kraljevo Mladenovac Odaci Prokuplje Zajear Product Petroleum products Petroleum products LPG LPG LPG LPG LPG LPG LPG LPG Motor gasoline Jet fuel Diesel Gas oil LPG Motor gasoline Diesel LPG Motor gasoline Diesel LPG Diesel LPG Motor gasoline Jet fuel Diesel Gas oil LPG Motor gasoline Diesel Motor gasoline Diesel Motor gasoline Diesel Gas oil Motor gasoline Diesel Diesel Diesel Motor gasoline Diesel Gas oil Motor gasoline Motor gasoline Diesel Motor gasoline Diesel Diesel Motor gasoline Diesel Motor gasoline Diesel Diesel Diesel Capacity (m ) 370,000 198,000 6,200 500 500 600 1,500 2,300 1,000 1,400 11,800 5,600 5,300 2,400 2,300 400 10,100 7,500 11,500 43,700 4,300 16,000 1,300 4,500 200 7,000 3,000 100 100 100 3,200 17,800 2,800 11,400 9,400 2,700 5,000 500 17,500 100 200 300 7,000 200 300 100 100 27,700 100 100 2,000 2,000 4,400 13,000 852,100
3
Beograd
aak
Novi Sad Subotica
Ni
Bogati Smederevo Prahovo Poega Crvenka Bari Sombor Jagodina Kladovo Svilajnac Elemir Koani Ada Huja Doljevac Ostrunica Total

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Serbia holds emergency stocks in the form of motor gasoline, diesel fuel and fuel oil. At this moment the amount of products that are currently being held cannot be set out because they are decreed confidential as a state secret. Article 114 of the Energy Law stipulates that entities supplying consumers with oil derivatives and electrical power and heat producers which consume oil derivatives shall, in line with a special law (meaning other than Energy Law), ensure emergency reserves, and shall ensure operational reserves which are at minimum equal to the average fifteen-day requirements of those consumers in the preceding year. The more detailed conditions and the method for ensuring, using and replenishing the operational reserves of oil derivatives will be prescribed by by-law of Energy Law. Emergency reserves in future will be organized by new The Commodity Reserves Law. Operational reserves (which is necessary for security of supply mainly electricity power and heat producers consuming oil derivatives) and Mandatory reserves (in accordance with directive) are a different kind of reserves.

A work program of the Directorate for Commodity Reserves for each year is adopted by the Government. In the last period it has increased the petroleum products storage capacities and the level of reserves in proportion to funds received from the state budget. For strategic reserves, three storage facilities are planned: Poega, for western Serbia Smederevo, for central Serbia and umadija Prahovo, for eastern Serbia
The storage capacities were increased to 32,700 m in Poega and the work program for 2010 envisages the rehabilitation of the storage capacity of 50,000 m in Smederevo which is planned to be reconstructed in the next two years. The Prahovo storage facility will be new. The Government is counting also on the capacities of NIS of which 49% is owned by the State. The work program of 2010 allocated 900 million RSD for the purchase of petroleum products with the purpose of raising the level of emergency stocks.

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JP Transnafta obtained a license for the storage of crude oil in two existing storage facilities of 10,000 m3 at the terminal in Novi Sad, and plans to build 100,000 m3 of storage capacity for crude oil in Novi Sad and Panevo. The Consultant estimates that of the existing storage capacities for petroleum products in Serbia, about 180,000 m3 might be available for emergency stocks storage. Therefore, in order to ensure enough capacity for emergency stocks about 128,000 m3 for oil products and 740,000 m3 for crude oil has to be built by 2020.
11.6. Legal Review

The Commodity Reserves Law (Official Gazette No. 18/92) regulates the formation, usage and renewal of commodity reserves that include the oil reserves. It also defines modes of building, maintenance and management of the reserves. In compliance with the Commodity Reserves Law, the Republic Directorate for Commodity Reserves takes care of all commodities reserves. A new Commodity Reserves Law is being drafted and it will include the emergency oil stocks. The Energy Law (Official Gazette No. 84/04) regulates operational reserves that should be enough for 15 days of average consumption. The new Commodity Reserves Law is expected to stipulate the organisation of emergency stocks and bodies responsible for emergency response planning and procedures.

The draft of the new Commodity Reserves Law anticipates that energy entities will be required to pay a fee for financing the obligatory reserves system. Total obligation of emergency stocks to be held in the period of 2011-2021 (Table 90) reaches an amount of 781,000 toe in 2021. According to the proposed structure of compulsory stocks (Table 94) it is necessary to ensure about 1 million m3 of storage for crude oil and petroleum products by 2020. It is estimated that in Serbia, there is about 180,000 m3 of storage capacity available for oil products. Accordingly, it is necessary to build an additional 117,000 m3 of storage capacity for oil products and 720,000 m3 for crude oil (Table 99). Total investment in construction of new storage capacities is estimated to be 172 million.

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Table 99 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage, Serbia, 20102021
Construction Oil products Crude oil Total m 117.000 720.000 837.000

3
28.080.000 144.000.000 172.080.000
In accordance to the calculated total obligation up to 2021 Serbia needs to invest 369.9 million in the purchase of petroleum products (Table 100).
Table 100 Required Investment in Oil Product Purchases, Serbia, 2010-2020
Tonnes 238,550 596,374 834,924
113,701,457 256,291,015 369,992,472
The proposed scenario for construction of new facilities (Table 101) and the of stocks was defined for the purpose of calculating the compensation to be paid by importers and producers of petroleum products per each litre of gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil and LPG placed on the market of Serbia. The proposed scenario results with costs that include investments in storage facilities, procurement of petroleum products and crude oil inventories, renewal of stocks as well as operational costs of the entire system (Table 105).
Table 101 Storage Tank Construction Plan, Serbia, 2010-2020 m3
Oil products Crude oil
2012 45,000 150,000
2014 45,000 150,000
2016 27,000 150,000
2018 0 150,000
2020 0 120,000
Table 102 Planned Costs (Storage Capacities, Crude Oil and Products Procurement and Operational Costs), Serbia, 2010-2020 1000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
0 28,643 684 29,327 1,368 18,554 0 85,977 2,280 88,257 4,560 90,537 0 114,620 2,964 117,584 5,928 109,091
1,778 1,778 1,778 1,778 6,840 92,817 9,120 77,902 8,618 94,595 10,898 79,680
With the defined scenario of stocks formation (Figure 68) and forecast consumption of petroleum products in Serbia, the average fee paid by the importers and manufacturers of petroleum products per each litre of gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil and LPG sold on the market would amount to 0.013
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/l4. Such a fee covers the costs of the formation of 90-day supplies of oil and petroleum products by the year 2020.
Figure 68 Proposed Build-up of Emergency Stocks Formation in Serbia, 2011-2020
800 700 600 x 1 000 t 500 400 300 200 100 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Crude oil Oil products
In the case that Serbia would want to form the stocks of crude oil and oil products by the 2016 (as per some suggested targets), the average fee per each litre of gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil and LPG placed on the market would amount to maximum 0.019 /l.

The Directorates department for non-food commodities undertakes activities related to formation, maintenance, storage, territorial distribution of oil and oil products, management, use, and intervention with these goods in the market. The department also makes analysis, surveys and studies that serve as technical basis for the legal regulation of formation, maintenance, utilisation and territorial disposition of oil and oil products. The draft Commodity Reserves Law will determine the organisational structure for holding and reporting of emergency stocks but the proposed structure is currently being revised.

In the event of market disruption, caused by an interruption of supply the Republican Directorate for Commodity Reserves is supposed to intervene in the market under the Law on Commodity Reserves and the Government's decision. In case of taking necessary measures due to market disruption, the
4
The fee is calculated presuming that Serbia has no emergency stocks as the data on existing stocks was not available to the Consultant.

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Directorate in line with ministries jointly have to do market analysis and propose possible measures to the Government, which makes the final decision on market reaction.
11.10.
Republic of Serbia is currently preparing a new Law on Commodity Reserves that would regulate emergency oil and oil products reserves in accordance with Directive 2009/119/EC. This Law should take into account: The method of calculation of the obligatory oil stocks (90 days of average daily net imports) - Article 3 of the Directive; Annexes I, II and III of the Directive There is an obligation to submit statistical summaries of the level of emergency stocks on a regular bases for each month - Article 12 and Annex IV of the Directive 2009/119/EC There is an obligation to submit statistical summaries of the level of commercial stocks on a regular bases for each month - Article 14 of the Directive 2009/119/EC Biofuels can be taken into account when calculating stockholding obligation - Article 16 of the Directive 2009/119/EC The procedure in case of supply disruptions are to be refined to include the Commission and IEA in the process - Article 20 of the Directive 2009/119/EC
11.11.
Road Map
Serbia, legally and organisationally, is well on the way to compliance with Directive 2009/119/EC. There are some relatively minor legislative changes to be made but the Consultant does not anticipate these being problematic or time consuming. There is a requirement for additional storage capacity building but this should be financeable under the existing bodies and with the measures outlined in this report. An envisaged timeline for compliance is set out in Figure 69. The Consultant believes that Serbia should be able to attain compliance with all facets of Directive 2009/119/EC by 2018 and certainly within the time frame of this study.

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Figure 69 Road Map Gantt Diagram, Serbia
128
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12. UNMIK
UNMIK is a net importer of petroleum products. There is production of neither crude oil nor petroleum products in UNMIK.

The following figures provide a summary of the current and forecast position in UNMIK based on the methodology outlined in Section 3.1.
Figure 70 Petroleum Product Imports, UNMIK, 2007-2020
1.000 900 800 700 x 1 000 t 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2007 LPG Residual fuel oil 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 Motor gasoline Petrol coke Kerosene and jet fuel Bitumen Gas/diesel oil Lubricants

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Figure 71 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, UNMIK, 2007-2020

1.000 900 800 700 x 1 000 t 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2007 LPG Residual fuel oil 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 Motor gasoline Petrol coke Kerosene and jet fuel Bitumen Gas/diesel oil Lubricants
Figure 72 Oil Product Supply and Demand, UNMIK, 2007-2020

1.000 900 800 700 x 1 000 t 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Production 2007 Import 2008 2009 2010 Export 2015 2020 Consumption

In the following tables the Consultant calculates the emergency oil stocks obligation for UNMIK based on the methodology given in Section 3.2.

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Table 103 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, UNMIK, 2009-2020
2009
0 47 98 21 257 112 35 50 6 0 627 1.7
2010
0 48 84 19 261 104 47 43 6 0 610 1.7
2015
0 66 114 29 313 145 45 83 9 0 804 2.2
2020
0 70 128 34 387 148 64 91 12 0 933 2.6
Table 104 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, UNMIK, 2009-2020
2009
0 12 24 5 63 28 9 12 1 0 155
2010
0 12 21 5 64 26 11 11 1 0 151
2015
0 16 28 7 77 36 11 20 2 0 198
2020
0 17 32 8 95 37 16 22 3 0 230
Table 105 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, UNMIK, 2009-2020
2009
110 24 290 127 551 1.5
2010
95 22 294 117 527 1.4
2015
129 33 353 163 678 1.9
2020
144 38 436 167 785 2.2

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Table 106 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, UNMIK, 2009-2020
2009
18 4 48 21 92
2010
16 4 49 20 88
2015
22 6 59 27 113
2020
24 6 73 28 131
Given the fact that UNMIK has no indigenous capacity for processing crude oil, it was assumed that the total of their stockholding obligation would be in the form of products (Table 107).
Table 107 Stockholding Obligation According to Average Daily Net Imports, UNMIK, 2010-2021
2010
155 0 155 90
2011
151 0 151 90
2016
198 0 198 90
2021
230 0 230 90
Table 108 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, UNMIK, 2010-2021
2010
28 6 75 33 0 142
2011
25 6 77 31 0 138
2016
35 9 95 44 0 182
2021
39 10 117 45 0 211
On the basis of proposed composition of the compulsory stocks, the required volume of storage to 2021 is shown in Table 109.
Table 109 Required Volume of Storage for Compulsory Stocks, UNMIK, 2010-2021
2010
37.838 8.176 88.803 36.680 0 171.497
2011
33 057 7.434 91.616 34.339 0 166.445
2016
46,112 11,649 112,598 49,160 0 219,519
2021
51,586 13,375 139,560 50,355 0 254,876

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The Consultants understanding of the current oil infrastructure is given in this section.
Figure 73 Oil Infrastructure
There no refineries or pipelines in UNMIK. There is about 185,000 m3 of petroleum product storage capacity in UNMIK, of which, 51,000 m3 are storages of retail outlets. Most of the storage consists of small volume tankage and is used by private companies. The storage in Ferizaj, Mitrovice and Peje is publicly owned and might be used for emergency stockholding purposes in the future. The biggest storage is Snake Depot with 20,000 m3 of capacity located in Bardosh near Pristina and operated by INA. Storage located along the railway line receives petroleum products from refineries in the region (mostly OKTA) but others are supplied by road only.

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Table 110 Storage Capacities for Oil Products
Location
Product Diesel fuel and motor gasoline Fuel oil LPG Jet fuel Diesel fuel and motor gasoline LPG Diesel fuel and motor gasoline Fuel oil Diesel fuel and motor gasoline Diesel fuel and motor gasoline Fuel oil LPG n/a Diesel fuel and motor gasoline Fuel oil LPG LPG Diesel fuel and motor gasoline Fuel oil LPG Diesel fuel and motor gasoline n/a Fuel oil Diesel fuel and motor gasoline Diesel fuel and motor gasoline LPG n/a Diesel fuel and motor gasoline Fuel oil LPG Gas oil, motor gasoline, LPG
Prishtine Fushe Kosove/UNMIK polje Obiliq Lipjan Ferizaj/uroevac
Prizren Suhareke Malisheve Gjakov/akovica Mitrovic Drenas Elez Hani Gjilan Peje Other Storages at retail objects Total
Capacity (m) 22,000 4,500 600 300 31,000 1,900 2,000 2,000 4,000 12,500 1,000 450 *14,000 3,500 1,000 350 1,100 2,000 3,500 450 2,000 *9,000 2,000 6,000 2,000 450 **2,000 1,000 1,000 200 51,000 184,800
* about 30% in operation; ** not in operation
UNMIK is landlocked and therefore most of the petroleum products are imported from the FYR Macedonia by rail and road. Imported petroleum products are transported 10% by rail and 90% by trucks.

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Currently there are no emergency stocks in accordance with Directive 2009/119/EC in UNMIK.

Considering the current rather low storage capacity for petroleum products UNMIK should build new storage. The required volume of storage in year 2016 amounts to 220,000 m3, trending to 255,000 m3 by 2021. There is a possibility of using some of the existing capacities for emergency stockholding with a volume of about 34,000 m3.
12.6. Legal Review

The oil market structure is controlled by the Ministry of Trade and Industry through Administrative Direction No. 01/2010 which regulates the organisation and functioning of the Licensing Office for Regulation and Monitoring of the Oil Sector. Emergency reserves of petroleum products are defined in the amended Law on Trade of Petroleum and Petroleum Products (Law No. 03/L-138). All petroleum and petroleum product storage and sale points are obligated at any time to possess reserves of at least 5% of their storage capacity for state emergency purposes. In case of market disruption, the Minister of Trade and Industry through special legal acts can mandate a higher percentage for emergency reserves. A draft Law on Emergency Oil Stocks Reserves is currently being prepared and should be adopted by the Assembly. The Law should be in compliance with Directive 2009/119/EC as it is going to be brought in by the end of 2012.

The total obligation of emergency stocks to be held in the period of 2011-2021 (Table 107) increases and amounts to 230,000 toe in 2021. According to the proposed structure of compulsory stocks (Table 108), it is necessary to ensure 257,000 m3 of storage for petroleum products by 2020. It is estimated that in UNMIK, there are about 34,000 m3 of storage capacity available for oil emergency stockholding purposes. Accordingly, it is necessary to build additional 223,000 m3 of storage capacity for oil products (Table 111). Total investment in construction of new storage capacities and modernisation of existing facilities is estimated at 56.8 million.

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Table 111 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage, UNMIK, 20102021
Oil products
Construction m3 223,000 53,520,000
Modernisation m3 34,000 3,264,000
In accordance to the calculated total obligation up to 2021 UNMIK needs to invest in the purchase of petroleum products in amount of 99.9 million (Table 112).
Table 112 Needed Investment in Oil Products Purchase, UNMIK, 2010-2020
Oil products
Tonnes 210,901
99,928,815
In order raise funds for emergency stocks formation in UNMIK the Consultant recommends collection of fee paid by the producers and importers of petroleum products. The liable body should be responsible for collection of fees. The proposed scenario of modernisation of the existing storage capacity (Table 113), construction of new facilities (Table 114) and the acquisition of stocks were defined for the purpose of calculating the compensation to be paid by importers and producers of petroleum products per each litre of gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil and LPG sold on the UNMIK market. This covers the costs that include investments in storage facilities, procurement of petroleum products inventories, renewal of stocks as well as operational costs of the entire system (Table 115).
Table 113 Storage Tank Modernisation Plan, UNMIK, 2010-2020 m3 2012 20,000 2014 14,000 2016 0 2018 0 2020 0
Oil products
Table 114 Storage Tank Construction Plan, UNMIK, 2010-2020 m

3
2012 0
Oil products
2014 40,000
2016 60,000
2018 60,000
2020 63,000
Table 115 Planned Costs (Storage Capacities, Crude Oil and Products Procurement and Operational Costs), UNMIK, 2010-2020 1000
Oil products
2011 0
2012 2,224
2013 304
2014 27,231
2015 1,125
2016 2017 2018 39,180 2,037 40,092
2019 2,949
2020 42,907

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With the defined scenario of stocks formation (Figure 74) and forecast consumption of petroleum products in UNMIK, the average fee paid by the importers and manufacturers of petroleum products per litre of gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil and LPG placed on the market would amount to 0.021 /l. Such fee ensures the formation of 90-day supplies of oil and petroleum products by the year 2020 in UNMIK.
Figure 74 Proposed Build-up of Emergency Stocks Formation in UNMIK, 2011-2020
250 Oil products 200
x 1 000 t
150
100
50
0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Currently, UNMIK does not have an established emergency stocks system. It would be necessary to form a CSE or relevant body under the jurisdiction of the Government of UNMIK that would execute the legal obligations stipulated in the Directive 2009/911/EC. The main obligations comprise tasks of providing required volume of storage capacities, purchase and maintenance of emergency stocks, and report of the state of stocks to the specified body.

UNMIK should design a clear structural and procedural legal framework for the rapid response in case of supply disruption of petroleum products.
12.10.
There is a need to provide a complete legal framework covering formation, maintenance, financing and monitoring of emergency stocks, organisation of the emergency stockholding system as well as procedures for rapid response in case of supply disruption.

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12.11.
Road Map
UNMIK needs to implement an entire stock holding system and construct storage facilities to hold the emergency stocks. The Consultants understand that legislation is currently being planned to meet Directive 2009/119/EC but there is a long way to go until compliance. An envisaged timeline is given in Figure 75 .

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Figure 75 Road Map Gantt Diagram, UNMIK
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Task Legal Develop regulatory framework/laws Enact relevant laws and regulations Organisational and Management Develop strategy and organisation for managing stocks Set up Central Stockholding Entity (as required) Develop stockholding obligations for operating companies (if required) Development of Emergency Response Planning Development of Inventory monitoring and reporting system Engineering Secure Engineering Budget Assess and design additional tank capacity Engineering design for additional tank capacity Tender for storage construction Build required additional tank capacity Stockbuilding Arrange financing for purchasing of emergency stocks Build-up emergency stocks Report compliance progress to the Energy Community
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13. Georgia
Georgia has a small petroleum product market when compared to the other Observer countries of the Energy Community but the market is comparable in size to the Contracting Parties with a market of approximately 2.5 Mt/y in 2009 and expected to grow to approximately 2.9 Mt/y by 2020. Georgia has very limited domestic production of crude oil. Georgia did have a small 50 kt/y refinery but this was very old and ceased operation in 2005 and Georgia imports petroleum products to meet domestic consumption. A tender has recently been awarded for a feasibility and preliminary design of a 50 kt/y refinery, however PDC has not modelled any production from this refinery into the forward modelling as the Consultant believes that the refinery will not be completed and operational by 2020. The Consultant believes that Georgia will remain dependent on imports yet Georgia is well placed to receive competitively priced imports of products via the Black Sea. Black Sea products are priced based on that of the Mediterranean market which is one of the most competitive markets for oil products globally due to the Black Sea being linked through the Dardanelles Strait to the Mediterranean. Most imports are brought in through the ports of Poti and Batumi where there are capable and relatively modern handling facilities. This should in theory make for easier extension of facilities or building of facilities to hold emergency stocks. Any new facilities here will be well situated to receive imports of fuels and easily connect to existing infrastructure.

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The following figures provide a summary of the current and forecast position in Georgia based on the methodology outlined in Section 3.1.
Figure 76 Crude Oil Imports and Exports, Georgia, 2007-2020

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Figure 77 Petroleum Product Imports, Georgia, 2007-2020
Figure 78 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Georgia, 2007-2020

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Figure 79 Oil Product Supply and Demand, Georgia, 2007-2020
13.2. Emergency Oil Stock Obligations

To comply with the Directive, Georgia must hold the greater of 90 days of net imports or 61 days of inland consumption. In this case Georgia must hold the equivalent of 90 days of net imports
Table 116 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, Georgia, 2009-2020
2009
19 11 497 61 406 0 1 1,690 14 0 2,698 7.4
2010
0 1 574 78 436 0 1 1,606 14 0 2,711 7.4
2015
0 -16 742 105 509 0 3 1,503 12 0 2,856 7.8
2020
0 5 951 138 599 0 4 1,374 10 0 3,081 8.4

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Table 117 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, Georgia, 2009-2020
2009
5 3 123 15 100 0 0 417 4 0 665
2010
0 0 142 19 108 0 0 396 3 0 668
2015
0 -4 183 26 125 0 1 371 3 0 704
2020
0 1 234 34 148 0 1 339 2 0 760
Table 118 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Georgia, 2009-2020
2009 560 69 457 0 1,086 3.0
2010 647 87 492 0 1,226 3.4
2015 835 118 573 0 1,526 4.2
2020 1,071 156 675 0 1,902 5.2
Table 119 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Georgia, 2009-2020
2009 94 11 76 0 181
2010 108 15 82 0 205
2015 140 20 96 0 255
2020 179 26 113 0 318
Where 90 days of average daily net imports is greater than 61 days of average daily inland consumption, the stockholding obligation is calculated on the basis of average daily net imports. Given the assumed lack of refining in Georgia, the Consultant recommends at this stage an emergency stock holding consisting of 100 percent product and the proposed constitution is set out below.

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Table 120 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Georgia, 2010-2020
1 000 toe Motor gasoline Kerosene and jet fuel Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Petroleum Coke Bitumen Lubricants Other Total
2009 111 16 94 0 0 412 4 0 637
2010 127 16 103 0 0 431 4 0 680
2015 146 20 111 0 0 409 4 0 690
2021 189 27 130 0 1 383 3 0 732
Table 121 Required Volume of Storage of Compulsory Stocks, Georgia, 2010-2021
m3 Motor gasoline Kerosene and jet fuel Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Petroleum Coke Bitumen Lubricants Other Total
2009 148,357 21,045 112,181 0 6 433,206 4,627 0 714,795
2010 168,708 20,443 122,995 0 220 453,158 4,059 0 765,525
2011 194,967 25,976 132,263 0 397 430,599 3,955 0 784,202
2015 251,793 35,032 154,175 0 825 402,898 3,455 0 844,722

This section provides a summary of the Consultants understanding of the current oil infrastructure within Georgia.

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Figure 80 Oil Infrastructure
Source: PDC after CIA World Factbook
Georgia has two major ports, Batumi and Poti. Batumi is at the terminus of the Caspian oil pipeline and is primarily an export terminal with a capacity of 18 million tonnes per annum. Poti has storage capacity for products 2.0 million tonnes per annum and crude of 1 million tonnes per annum. Georgia currently has a total of 1,258 km of oil pipelines and has a rail capacity of handling some 5.2 million m3of oil and petroleum products.
Table 122 Georgia Storage Capacity
Terminal Name Batumi Oil Terminal Ltd. Channel Energy Poti Oil Terminal SOCAR Kulevi Black Sea Terminal Supsa Oil Terminal
Source: www.tankfinder.com Key: PET = Petroleum Products
Capacity (m3) Product 581,650 PET, CRUDE 120,000 PET 380,000 PET, CRUDE 160,000 CRUDE
Access Sea, Rail, Pipe Sea, Rail Sea, Rail, Pipe Sea, Pipe

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Figure 81 Map of Georgia Pipelines
Key: Red = Baku (Azerbaijan) - Supsa Pipeline; Green = Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyan
The small (50,000 tonnes per year) refinery in Georgia has not functioned since 2005. There are currently tenders in circulation for design of a replacement refinery. Reaching operational capacity is, in the Consultants view, not likely within the time frame of this project.

There are currently no legal arrangements or organisations for the holding of emergency oil stocks in Georgia.
13.5. Additional Required Stock Holding Capacities

This is discussed below.
13.6. Legal Review

Georgian currently does not have a legal regime for the holding of emergency oil stocks.

To calculate the investment requirement, largest calculated required volume of storage of each individual petroleum product in the period 2010-2020 was determined and rounded up to the nearest 5,000 m3. The capacities were then multiplied by the cost per m3 outlined in Section 3.3.

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Table 123 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage, Georgia, 20102020
Product Motor gasoline Kerosene and jet fuel Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Other Total
m3 325,000 50,000 185,000 0 60,000 620,000
Capex () 78,000,000 12,000,000 44,400,000 0 14,400,000 148,800,000
The above calculation assumes that there is a requirement to build new facilities for the emergency fuel stocks. There are already significant storage facilities within Georgia as detailed in Table 122 and it may be possible to class some of the stocks held for commercial purposes as emergency stocks and / or to utilise any spare capacity within the storage facilities to be lease for holding emergency stocks. The required investment in the purchase of oil products is given in Table 124.
Table 124 Georgia Oil Product Purchase
Products
Tonnes 346,299 98,357,136
In terms of overall costs for achieving compliance in 2020, the Consultant estimates that the cost can be applied to a fee charge to importers of petroleum products at a rate of 0.072 Euro per litre.

There are currently no organisational procedures for emergency stocks within Georgia.
13.9. Intervention is Case of Supply Disruption

There are currently no intervention procedures for supply disruptions within Georgia.
13.10.
Required Legal Changes
Georgia needs to enact legislation that mandates the formation of emergency oil stocks, a body to own, maintain and manage the oil stocks and delegates power to an appropriate body to act in case of supply disruption.

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13.11.
Road Map
Georgia is required to implement every step and process for compliance with Directive 2009/119/EC. Georgia, given the already significant storage capacity and terminal facilities within the country should look at ways of incentivising further tank construction by existing market players and leasing the capacity back to a stock holding agency and the existing players manage the stocks on behalf of the stock holding agency. The Consultant recommends that due to Georgias small market, the CSE should own the stocks as it would probably be too bigger burden on existing players to have to hold reserves of that quantity. An envisaged timeline is presented in Figure 82.

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Figure 82 Road Map Gantt Georgia
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Task Legal Develop regulatory framework/laws Enact relevant laws and regulations Organisational and Management Develop strategy and organisation for managing stocks Set up Central Stockholding Entity (as required) Develop stockholding obligations for operating companies (if required) Development of Emergency Response Planning Development of Inventory monitoring and reporting system Engineering Secure Engineering Budget Assess and design additional tank capacity Engineering design for additional tank capacity Tender for storage construction Build required additional tank capacity Stockbuilding Arrange financing for purchasing of emergency stocks Build-up emergency stocks Report compliance progress to the Energy Community
150
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14. Turkey
Turkey is a relatively advanced country in terms of energy security and planning for supply interruptions with detailed plans laid out. Much of this comes from Turkey being a member of the IEA and has also in the past complied with European laws on emergency oil stocks. Turkey is net importer of oil products and energy. Whilst Turkey has significant refining capacity, much of this is not fully utilised. Many of the refineries are not suited to the existing market within Turkey and produce too much gasoline and fuel oils to meet existing trends and the Consultant predicts this is likely to continue. The underutilised capacity however does have its advantages in that it gives Turkey the flexibility of being able to utilise capacity to increase refining of products and gives Turkey the advantage of being able to hold emergency stocks in the form of crude oil. However, even though this strategy of maintaining stocks of crude oil is potentially cheaper than purchasing additional emergency stock as product, there may be further problems with emergency response planning as the Turkish refineries are limited in what they can produce. There are detailed emergency and contingency plans in place within Turkey that are reviewed as adequate by the IEA should a supply interruption arise.5
Note: There has been a lack of timely response from Turkey to the consultants questionnaire and inquiries and as a result reliance has been put on other data sources.

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The following figures provide a summary of the current and forecast position in Turkey based on the methodology outlined in Section 3.1.
Figure 83 Crude Oil Supply, Turkey, 2008-2020
Figure 84 Petroleum Product Production, Turkey, 2008 - 2010

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Figure 85 Petroleum Products Balance, Turkey, 2007-2020
Figure 86 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Turkey, 2007-2020

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Figure 87 Oil Product Supply and Demand, Turkey, 2007-2020

To comply with Directive 2009/119/EC, Turkey must hold the greater of 90 days of net imports or 61 days of inland consumption. In this case Turkey must hold the equivalent of 90 days of net imports
Table 125 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, Turkey, 2009-2020
1 000 toe Crude oil LPG Gasoline Jet/Other Kerosene Diesel/Gasoil Fuel Oil Other Products Total Daily net imports
2009 13,273 3,205 1,509 -1,429 828 9,858 1,311 28,554 78.2
2010 13,116 3,515 1,373 -1,526 911 10,282 1,370 29,043 79.6
2015 21,684 4,152 755 -2,658 429 10,244 -2,249 32,358 88.7
2020 23,398 4,285 820 -2,772 594 12,608 -2,732 36,201 99.2

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Table 126 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, Turkey, 2009-2020
1 000 toe Crude oil LPG Gasoline Jet/Other Kerosene Diesel/Gasoil Fuel Oil Other Products Total
2009 3,273 790 372 -352 204 2,431 323

7,041
2010 3,234 867 339 -376 225 2,535 338

7,161
2015 5,347 1,024 186 -655 106 2,526 -555

7,979
2020 5,769 1,057 202 -684 147 3,109 -674

8,926
Table 127 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Turkey, 2009-2020
2009
2,663 3,182 16,610 3,032 25,487 69.8
2010
2,312 3,247 16,943 3,227 25,730 70.5
2015
2,279 3,580 20,048 3,248 29,156 79.9
2020
2,247 3,913 23,153 3,270 32,582 89.3
Table 128 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Turkey, 2009-2020
2009 445 532 2,776 507 4,259
2010 386 543 2,832 539 4,300
2015 381 598 3,350 543 4,873
2020 375 654 3,869 547 5,445
Where 90 days of average daily net imports is greater than 61 days of average daily inland consumption, the stockholding obligation is calculated on the basis of average daily net imports.

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Table 129 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Turkey, 2009-2020
1 000 toe Motor gasoline Kerosene and jet fuel Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Crude oil Total
2009 225 269 1,402 256 5,378 7,530
2010 197 276 1,441 274 5,470 7,659
2015 191 299 1,676 272 6,095 8,533
2020 188 328 1,938 274 6,819 9,546
Table 130 Required Volume of Storage of Compulsory Stocks, Turkey, 2009-2020
2009 299,683 353,351 1,669,108 287,579 6,402,693 9,012,413
2010 2015 2020 262,148 254,122 250,778 363,390 393,879 430,952 1,715,402 1,995,668 2,307,322 308,335 305,197 307,579 6,512,331 7,255,733 8,117,567 9,161,606 10,204,599 11,414,198

This section provides a summary of the Consultants understanding of the current oil infrastructure within Turkey.
Figure 88 Existing Infrastructure
Source: PDC after CIA World Fact Book

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Turkey has a total of 3,332 km of oil pipelines. There are two major cross border pipelines running within Turkey: the Iraq - Turkey pipeline and the BakuTbilisiCeyhan pipeline both of which terminate at a Mediterranean port and give access to the Mediterranean market for Caspian and Middle Eastern oil.
Table 131 Storage Capacity Terminal Name Alpet Aliaga Alpet Izmit Alpet Mersin Alpet Samsun Altintel Tank Anadolu Uluslararasi Mt Selin Arkem Kimya Gebze-Dilovasi Tank Arkem Kimya Yumurtalik ATAS Refinery Aves Mersin Balpet Botas Ceyhan Tanker Cekisan Antalya Cekisan Cekmece Cekisan Iskenderun Delta Akdeniz Drtyol EUROIL Mersin Kiraz Guchan Tank Kiraz Yalin Tank Limas Liman Isletmeciligi Lukoil Eurasia Petrol Aliaga Lukoil Eurasia Petrol Batman Lukoil Eurasia Petrol Hatay Lukoil Eurasia Petrol Hopa Lukoil Eurasia Petrol - Kirikkale Lukoil Eurasia Petrol - Kocaeli Lukoil Eurasia Petrol Mersin M Oil Antalya Dolum Tesisi Opet Aliaga Opet Giresun Opet Konya Depot Capacity (m3) 68,000 16,460 94,847 46,950 45,000 31,200 45,000 100,000 570,000 117,600 57,000 1,770,000 36,805 75,000 18,500 625,000 65,160 21,952 22,709 31,700 14,734 5,116 84,329 13,000 19,400 32,000 16,800 33,300 66,000 43,130 1,526 Products PET PET PET PET PET, CHEM PET PET PET, CHEM PET PET, VEG PET CRUDE PET PET, GAS, CRUDE PET PET, CRUDE PET PET, CHEM, VEG PET, CHEM PET PET PET PET PET PET PET PET PET PET PET PET Access Road, Sea Sea Sea Road, Sea Sea Road, Sea Sea Road, Sea Sea Sea Road, Sea Pipe, Sea Pipe, Sea Sea Pipe, Sea Road, Sea Road, Sea Road, Sea Rail, Road, Sea Road, Sea Sea Road Road, Sea Pipe, Sea Road Sea Road, Sea Sea Pipe, Sea, Road Road, Sea Road

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Terminal Name Opet Korfez Opet Marmara Opet Mersin Orka Tank Petline Izmir (Korfez) Facility Petline Kirikkale Storing Facility Petline Trakya Petrol Ofisi Aliaga s Petrol Ofisi Antalya s Petrol Ofisi Derince Petrol Ofisi Haramidere s Petrol Ofisi Iskenderun s Petrol Ofisi Istanbul s Petrol Ofisi Mudanya s Petrol Ofisi Samsun s Petrol Ofisi Trabzon s Poliport Kimya Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. Soil Black Sea Soil Mersin Solventas Teknik Depolama A.S. Toros Ceyhan Total Gebze i Total Haramidere Turcas Aliaga s Turcas Ambarli s Turcas Korfez s Turkuaz & Zulfikarlar Chemical Yarimca Yilport Konteyner i ve Liman Isletmeleri Source: Tankerterminals.com
Capacity (m ) 37,500 453,000 248,000 12,000 21,000 57,000 198,300 165,325 108,919 184,000 973,760 20,150 54,289 78,427 140,000 140,200 96,400 220,000 247,427 94,950 39,500 11,150 66,014 16,000 39,185 120,000
Products PET PET PET PET, CRUDE PET PET PET PET PET PET PET PET PET PET PET PET PET, CHEM PET, VEG PET PET, CHEM, VEG PET, CHEM, VEG, GAS PET PET PET PET PET PET, CHEM PET, CHE, VEG
Access Pipe, Sea, Road Road, Sea Rail, Road, Sea Road, Sea Sea Road Pipe, Road, Sea Sea Sea Sea Pipe, Road, Sea Sea Sea Sea Pipe, Road, Sea Sea Road, Sea Road, Sea Road, Sea Sea Sea Road, Sea Sea Sea Pipe, Sea Pipe, Road, Sea
Turkeys four existing refineries are dominated by Tupras and are relatively large with a total capacity of 28.1Mt per year (567 kb/d), but have low utilisation rates which the Consultant estimates to be approximately 60% going forward. The refineries are also poorly matched with the Turkeys current demand scenario and this is likely to continue to be the case going forward to 2020.

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Figure 89 Refineries
Refinery Central Anatolian Izmit Aliaga Batman Aliaga (Due 2014)
Owner Tupras Tupras Tupras Tupras Petkim
Capacity bbl/day (m3/d) 100,000 (16,000) 220,000 (35,000) 220,000 (35,000) 22,000 (3,500) 214,000 (34,000)
14.4. Emergency Stock Holding Current Situation

Stock holding is governed under the 2003 Petroleum Market Law. The Law sets out requirements for coverage of inland consumption based on the EU directives and currently requires that 90 days of net imports are held. The stocks are required to consist of obligatory industry stocks and new established stocks to make up the requirement to 90 days from previous requirements laid out by previous EU Directives and IEA requirements. Industry participants are required to hold stocks as per the schedule set out in Table 132.
Table 132 Turkish Industry Stock Holding Requirements
Industry Type Refineries Fuel Distributors LPG Distributors Large consumers (20,000 t/y)
Required Holding (previous year average days) 20 20 10 15
It is the intention to build additional stocks to make up the shortfall of the above mention industry participants to 90 days.
14.5. Additional Required Stock Holding Capacity

The consultant currently does not have a full break down of Turkeys existing emergency stock holding capacity it has been assumed that the total stock holding capacity and stocks will have to be built up over an 8 year period starting in 2012. (See Table 133 for break-down of requirements).
14.6. Legal Review

The Consultant understands that there are currently studies being undertaken and laws are currently being drafted to comply with Directive 2009/119/EC but this is not available but the Consultant understands that the new laws should comply with Directive 2009/119/EC.

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Table 133 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage, Turkey, 20102020
Products Motor gasoline Kerosene and jet fuel Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Crude oil Total
Capacity (m3)
320,000 435,000 2,310,000 310,000 8,120,000 11,495,000
Investments ()
76,800,000 104,400,000 554,400,000 74,400,000 1,948,800,000 2,758,800,000
The above calculation assumes that there is a requirement to build new facilities for the emergency fuel stocks. There are already significant storage facilities within Turkey as detailed in Table 122 and it may be possible to class some of the stocks held for commercial purposes as emergency stocks and / or to utilise any spare capacity within the storage facilities. Total stock purchase capital expenditure is estimated by the Consultant to be 4.8 billion Euros. Given the assumed annual consumption over the time period, Turkey potentially should level a charge of 0.022 Euro per litre of liquid fuel sold.

The Turkish National Emergency Sharing Organisation (NESO) which is in place to coordinate responses to energy supply restrictions is chaired by the Undersecretary of the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources and includes members of the major oil companies, the Energy Market Regulatory Authority and can be expanded to include other ministries such as transport as required. As such, NESO potentially has wide ranging powers including the ability to relax fuel standards to increase refinery output, call for increased domestic production and allocate fuel to particular entities. NESO expects to be able to utilise the capability of Tupras, the formerly State own refining company with a dominant positions in Turkish refining and product retail to be beneficial in terms of logistics and communications should a supply interruption occur.

Intervention in case of supply interruption is set out in the Petroleum Market Law and the constitution of NESO and is compliant with international best practise and IEA and EU requirements of only countering physical supply interruptions and not a method of price control.

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14.10.
Road Map
Turkey is well advance with regards to its maintenance of oil stocks and has previously been compliant with IEA regulation. With minor legislative changes and some additional storage capacity building, Turkey should be compliant with the new directive by 2020 and may well be compliant by or before 2016 as set out in an envisaged time line in Figure 90.

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Figure 90 Road Map Gantt Diagram, Turkey
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15. Ukraine
The Ukraine has a long history of oil and gas production and refining and has some legal provisions for oil stocks. The Consultants forecasts for the Ukraine indicated that it will be a country that is increasingly reliant on imports of both product and crude to meet oil product demand. The countrys oil production is forecast by the Consultant to plateau even with the opening up to foreign oil companies, access to newer technology and increased investment in the Ukraines oil fields as the Consultant believes this is more a case of arresting decline rather than bringing on new production. Details of the emergency oil stocks arrangements are classified as a State secret and so not disclosed despite efforts by the Consultant to gain access to this information. As such, the analysis presented in this section is incomplete and not likely to accurately reflect the true situation within oil and oil product supply and demand.6

The following figures provide a summary of the current and forecast position in the Ukraine based on the methodology outlined in Section 3.1.
Figure 91 Crude Oil Supply, Ukraine, 2008-2020
Note: There has been a lack of response from the Ukraine to the consultants questionnaire and inquiries and as a result reliance has been put on other data sources.

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Figure 92 Petroleum Product Production, Ukraine, 2008 - 2010
Figure 93 Petroleum Products Balance, Ukraine, 2007-2020

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Figure 94 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Ukraine, 2007-2020
Figure 95 Oil Product Supply and Demand, Ukraine, 2007-2020

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To comply with the Treaty, Ukraine must hold the great of 90 days of net imports or 61 days of inland consumption. In this case Ukraine must hold the equivalent of 90 days of net imports
Table 134 Crude Oil Equivalent of Imports of Petroleum Products, Ukraine, 2009-2020
1 000 toe Crude oil LPG Gasoline Jet/Other Kerosene Diesel/Gasoil Fuel Oil Other Products Total Daily net imports
2009 13,273 -77 64 1,688 -82 2,012 -2,081

14,796 40.5
2010 13,116 -94 60 1,651 -71 2,114 -2,145

14,631 40.1
2015 21,684 -53 62 2,459 8 3,004 -2,381

24,784 67.9
2020 23,398 -37 75 3,503 47 4,199 -2,375

28,809 78.9
Table 135 90 Days of Daily Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, Ukraine, 2009-2020
1 000 toe Crude oil LPG Gasoline Jet/Other Kerosene Diesel/Gasoil Fuel Oil Other Products Total
2009 3,273 -19 16 416 -20 496 -513

3,648
2010 3,234 -23 15 407 -18 521 -529

3,608
2015 5,347 -13 15 606 2 741 -587

6,111
2020 5,769 -9 18 864 12 1,035 -586

7,104
Table 136 Crude Oil Equivalent of Inland Consumption, Ukraine, 2009-2020
2009 5,964 298 6,503 713 13,478 36.9
2010 5,895 342 6,719 719 13,675 37.5
2015 7,078 413 7,936 728 16,155 44.3
2020 8,261 484 9,152 737 18,634 51.1

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Table 137 61 Days of Average Daily Inland Consumption, Ukraine, 2009-2020
2009 997 50 1,087 119 2,252
2010 985 57 1,123 120 2,285
2015 1,183 69 1,326 122 2,700
2020 1,381 81 1,530 123 3,114
Table 138 Proposed Composition of Compulsory Stocks, Ukraine, 2009-2020
1 000 toe Motor gasoline Kerosene and jet fuel Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Crude oil Total
2009 493 25 538 59 2,787 3,902
2010 475 28 542 58 2,756 3,858
2015 818 48 917 84 4,668 6,536
2020 962 56 1,066 86 5,426 7,597
Table 139 Required Volume of Storage of Compulsory Stocks, Ukraine, 2009-2020
2009
657,681 32,480 640,291 66,232 3,317,667 4,714,350
2010
633,558 36,241 644,774 65,146 3,280,661 4,660,381
2015
1,090,844 62,806 1,092,010 94,569 5,557,503 7,897,733
2020
1,282,989 74,212 1,269,131 96,456 6,459,997 9,182,785

This section provides an overview of the Consultants understanding of the current infrastructure within the Ukraine.
Table 140 Ukraine Ports & Terminals
Port Yuzhny Ilyichevsk Odessa
Terminal Pivdenny Crude Oil Terminal Ilyichevsk Fuel Terminal Odessa oil and gas Terminal
Commodity Crude Fuels Crude and products
Capacity Load ~7500 tonnes per hour 3.2 million tonnes per year 25 million tonnes per year
Source: Tankerterminals.com

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Ukraine has a total of 4,514 km oil pipelines and 4,211 km of refined products pipelines (2009 data).
Table 141 Storage Capacity
Terminal Name Eximnefteproduct Terminals 1 & 2 Feodosia Oil Terminal Illichivsk Fuel Terminal Odesnefteprodukt Oil Company Alliance Terminal Yugtorsan Oil Terminal Yuzhny (Pyvdenniy) Reni Oil Terminal Transbunker Yuzhny Oil Terminal Transbunker-Dunay Triton Petrol Limited S.A.
Capacity (m3) Products 474,000 PET, CRUDE 280,000 PET, CRUDE PET, CHEM, GAS, CRUDE, 72,160 VEG 147,000 PET, CRUDE 135,000 200,000 75,000 80,000 2,400 9,000 PET, CRUDE CRUDE PET, CRUDE PET PET PET
Access Pipe, Road, Sea, Rail Rail, Sea Rail, Sea Road, Rail, Sea Pipe, Sea, Rail Sea, Pipe Sea, Rail Sea, Rail, Road Sea, Rail, Road Sea, Rail, Road
Ukraine has a total of 1.475 million m3 of storage capacity which is a long way short of the required ~14.3 million m3. The consultant believes this volume of tankage to be considerably understated in this report due to the laws regarding the secrecy of Ukraines Emergency Oil Stocks. Ukraine has a long history of oil production and refining, however, many of Ukraines refineries are old and require capital injection and modernisation to operate competitively and to EU standards producing EU compliant fuels.
Table 142 Refineries
Refinery Odessa Linos Kherson Kremenchug Drogobych Neftekhimik Prikarpatya Nadvirna

Owner LUKOIL TNK-BP Alliance Ukrtatnafta Pryvat Pryvat
Capacity bbl/day (m3/d) 70,000 (11,000) 320,000 (51,000) 36,000 (5,700) 368,500 (58,600) 40,000 (6,400) 39,000 (6,200)

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15.4. Emergency Stock Holding Situation

Ukraine currently is creating strategic reserves to comply with the IEA requirements for 90 days of net import coverage. This is being undertaken by the State Committee of Material Reserve (Derzhkomreserv) which was first created in 1992. The current situation is one where there is a lack of transparency as emergency oil reserves are still viewed as a state secret. The most recent IEA review of policy notes that there is consideration for compelling distribution companies to hold 60 or 90 day stocks. Ukraine currently has a stockholding but this is classed as military stocks and therefore is not accruable under IEA or EU directives towards emergency oil stocks.
15.5. Additional Capacity Requirements

Since the Ukraine does no release information on its emergency stocks storage, no analysis has been made.
15.6. Legal Review

There is insufficient information to analyse the readiness to adapt the Acquis.

Table 143 Required Volume and Corresponding Investments in Storage, Ukraine 20102020
Products Motor gasoline Kerosene and jet fuel Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Crude oil Total
Capacity (m3)
1,285,000 75,000 1,270,000 135,000 6,460,000 9,225,000
Investments ()
308,400,000 18,000,000 304,800,000 32,400,000 1,550,400,000 2,214,000,000
The above calculation assumes that there is a requirement to build new facilities for the emergency fuel stocks. There are already significant storage facilities within Ukraine as detailed in Table 122 and it may be possible to class some of the stocks held for commercial purposes as emergency stocks and / or to utilise any spare capacity within the storage facilities. The required capital expenditure for commodity purchase is given below and the estimated fuel fee for building up emergency stocks is 0.05 per litre of retail fuel based on a five year build up and 2015 consumption levels.
Table 144 Commodity Purchase Capital Expenditure, Ukraine
Products Crude
1,094,218 2,331,987
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15.8. Organisational Aspects of the Stockholding System

Derzhkomreserv reserve is responsible for the organisation of the stock holding system but details of the organisation have not been disclosed.

The plans for intervention in cases of supply interruption are understood by the Consultant to be in existence but are not disclosed.
15.10.
Since the Consultant does not have the existing legislation, no comment can be made on necessary changes
15.11.
Road Map
The Ukraine already has many of the requirements to hold emergency oil stocks in compliance with Directive 2009/119/EC, it is mainly a question of align required holding levels and disclosure. The Consultant does not anticipate difficulties in attracting investment into Ukraines oil sector. An envisaged timeline is detailed in Figure 96.

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Figure 96 Road Map Gantt Diagram, Ukraine
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Task Legal Amend laws on commodity resevers to comply with 2009/119/EC Organisational and Management Engineering Secure Engineering Budget Assess and design additional tank capacity Engineering design for additional tank capacity Tender for storage construction Build required additional tank capacity Stockbuilding Arrange financing for purchasing of emergency stocks Build-up emergency stocks Report compliance progress to the Energy Community
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16. Regional Approach

16.1. Introduction
The European Council underlined the need to enhance security of supply for the EU as a whole and for each member state in its energy policy. Therefore, Council Directive 2009/119/EC introduces convergence between the EU oil supply security system and IEA system. These two systems promote integrated actions in order to secure energy supply to all Member States. A regional approach can enhance actions to provide energy security; it is not limited to storage of stocks in neighbouring country but can extend to cooperation on emergency response system based on regional agreements. Such agreements should arrange co-ordinated use of stockdraw and other measures in response to disruptions in oil supplies. Stockholding agreements are potentially very important for the Energy Community region due to high level of market interaction among the Beneficiaries.
16.2. Regulation
The regional arrangements are dependent on strong bilateral arrangements. It is the Consultants finding that the IEA intent for emergency oil stocks is one of self reliance in terms of supply disruptions. It is the Consultants interpretation of Directive 2009/119/EC that these bilateral agreements must be achieved and the contingency planning for supply interruptions must be in place and demonstrably reliable if any regional approach is going to be deemed acceptable to the European Commission and/or the IEA. A key point to bear in mind is that countries hoping to put in place such agreements have to be able to demonstrate that these are robust and effective. It is not sufficient to simply have such regulations. Key issues that can arise include the following: Who holds title on any stocks held? What procedures are in place to release stocks to countries other than the country in which the stocks are held? In emergency or crisis situations, how are stocks released to each country affected? How can political, economic or other interference be avoided to ensure that a country can be supplied from another with its emergency oil stocks?

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In case of holding stocks outside national borders, it is of extreme importance to define clearly availability of stocks at all times as well providing transparency on the quantity and location of emergency stocks. Beneficiaries should established agreements for the identification, accounting and control of the stocks to allow them to be verified at any time. They also should ensure availability of stocks at all times and release if needed. Each beneficiary should provide information needed to identify the specific storage facility where the stocks are located as well as the quantities, the owner of the stocks and their nature. Stock release procedures in case of shortage have to be set out clearly.
16.3. Infrastructure
The main benefit of having any cross-border or regional approach to emergency stockholding is that of economy of scale although there are other advantages as well as disadvantages. Generally the advantages of such arrangements might include: Economy of scale (reduced cost of building and operating storage facilities if these are concentrated or centralised in fewer locations with shared support services (control rooms, monitoring, auditing etc). Access to sea ports for land-locked countries (for lower cost transportation of products by sea versus by rail or road). Ability to utilise spare storage capacity in countries close to others that have inadequate levels of storage.
At the same time, the disadvantages of a regional approach include: Lack of clarity in ownership of stocks. Delays in releasing stocks to markets in other countries (either through slower decision making or through physically longer. distances/extended supply chains). Political or economic interference in the management of emergency stocks. Risk of double counting stocks i.e. the same stock being part of the stockholding obligation in both countries. Potential for breakdown of the regional approach if supply shortages are caused by intra-regional conflict or dispute. Plans have to be assessed/audited by outside independent bodies.

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So, overall, it can be seen that most of the advantages are due to infrastructural benefits (that reduce the cost of stockholding) while most of the disadvantages are organisational and procedural. In this region (CPs) there are no excess capacities for oil stocks. Therefore, especially in the period of stock building emphasize has to be given to intergovernmental agreements regarding joint emergency response planning in order to minimize the adverse effects of supply disruptions in the interconnected market of the region. It is also understood that the Serbian Government has been keen to support the use of a regional approach to energy security.
16.4. Examples of regional approaches

As previously stated, there are examples of cross-border stockholdings and other forms of regional cooperation. One of the most common forms of regional cooperation is via bi-lateral agreements between EU member states. Although these are not uncommon, they have to meet the requirements of the existing and new EU Directive. The principle challenge in any of these bi-lateral agreements is that they are assessed to be sufficiently robust and reliable that they will work at times of supply interruption. A recent summary of the EU member states holding bilateral agreements in oil stockholdings is presented in Table 145:

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Table 145 EU Bilateral Emergency Oil Stocks Agreements EL 1 1 2 DE &3 2 CY 1 1 2 IE 1 2 LU 3 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 SI 2 IE 3 2 LU 3 3 1 1 3 1 2 LU 1 2 PT 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 CZ 2 SI 1 1 1 3 ES FR IE IT LU NL PT UK SE FI CY EE HU LV LT MT CZ SK SI
BE
DK
DE
BE
DK
DE
EL
ES
FR
2 DE &3
IE
IT
LU
2 LU
NL
PT
2 PT
Continued over leaf
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BE 3 1 3 2 CY 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3
DK
DE
EL
ES
FR
IE
IT
LU
NL
PT
UK
SE
FI
CY
EE
HU
LV
LT
MT
CZ
SK
SI
UK
SE
FI
CY
EE
HU
2 SI
LV
LT
MT
CZ
2 CZ 2 SK 2 SI 1 2 SI
2 SK
SK
SI
2 SI
Key: 1 = Reciprocal agreement pursuant to Article 7 of Council Directive 2006/67/EC; 2 = Asymmetrical agreement with indication of the beneficiary country of the stocks established on the territory of another Member State pursuant to Article 7 of the Council Directive 2006/67/EC; 3 =
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From this table, it can be seen that the number of bilateral agreements varies considerably (from zero to 17), this seemingly reflecting a combination of factors including the ability of a country to be self-sufficient, desiring to leverage the excess capabilities of other countries and vice versa to offer excess capabilities to other countries. One reasonably well documented system of emergency stock holding is in Ireland. Ireland has 5 bilateral agreements in place. In 1995, Ireland set up a new State body, the National Oil Reserves Agency (NORA). Through NORA, Ireland meets its EU and IEA obligations through a combination of: Oil stocks owned and held by NORA (either in Ireland or in EU member states with whom Ireland has concluded a Bilateral Oil Stockholding Agreement); Oil stock tickets where NORA has entered into short-term commercial contracts (either in Ireland or in EU member states with whom Ireland has concluded a Bilateral Oil Stockholding Agreement) with an option to purchase, in emergency circumstances, during the period of the contract; Operational stocks held in Ireland by industry/large consumers7, (excluding stocks within the distribution networks (e.g. filling stations) which are deemed to be consumed).
In Irelands case, with limited/insufficient storage available within the country, it is able to meet its obligations through use of available storage in other EU member states. The Netherlands holds the most bilateral agreements (17 in total), perhaps reflecting the scale of its downstream oil infrastructure and role as part of the largest oil trading hub in Europe. The pattern of bilateral agreements also indicates that many such agreements, not surprisingly, are between neighbouring countries. There have been some concerns about the validity and robustness of these agreements under the new EU Directive, in particular on how authorisation for stock releases might be managed and if there is potential for a conflict of interest over stocks held between CSEs and/or economic operators in countries which have such agreements.
The industry has no obligation to maintain strategic levels of oil stocks.

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In Belgium, the stockholding agency APETRA holds some stock for Belgium in the Netherlands. However, the agency is in a five-year transition period where it is attempting to bring all stocks within Belgium. The Belgian stockholding in the Netherlands is believed to have covered about 10% of its stockholding obligation. One suggestion in terms of overcoming issues associated with bilateral agreements is to have a regional body (a type of committee or secretariat) that oversees the functioning of two or more CSEs that are bound by appropriate agreements. The role of the regional body would be to ensure the management and potential release of oil stocks for the countries involved in an appropriate way regardless of where the stocks were physically held. The aim of this is to overcome any potential conflict of interest, interference or inefficient operation due to behaviour or actions of any one country or its CSE. Such an approach is not believed to have been put in place to date. While it appears designed to overcome some of the issues of bilateral agreements, the formation of such a body would need to be such that it had authority over multiple national CSEs. As such it is not clear how that would be regulated or legislated.
16.5. Economic Rationale for a Regional Approach

Where countries have relatively small oil markets, as is the case with several Beneficiaries, there is a strong rational for trying to increase utilisation of existing capacity within the region if possible. If there is no spare tankage capacity within the region, there is a strong case for aggregation of building new capacity as there are economies of scale to be made in building fewer relatively large facilities as opposed to a greater number smaller facilities for the same capacity. PDC analysis indicates that the relationship between increasing the size of the facility against the cost follows a power law relationship of approximately 0.6 to 0.7 meaning that the additional cost of storage decreases as the facility gets larger. Given there is cross border pipeline infrastructure in the region of the contracting parties, particularly in the countries of former Yugoslavia, there is the strong potential for regional cooperation and significant cost savings. Given that the region has to build extra capacity, if cost savings can be made these should be explored. The Consultant believes the optimal scenario is likely to be building significant new capacity at a point where it can be tied into existing pipeline infrastructure allowing the aggregation of capacity and reducing the unit costs of storage capacity for all parties.

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16.6. Recommendations
In order to increase security of oil supply in the region the Consultant recommends establishment of a Coordination Entity for oil and petroleum products consisting of representatives of the Beneficiaries and chaired by the Energy Community. The main tasks of the Coordination Entity would be monitoring of oil market and establishment of coordinated emergency response procedures. The system should define obligations of each Beneficiary in implementation of Directive 2009/119/EC in a certain time frame. Furthermore, Beneficiaries should establish a system of a monthly statistical reporting of the levels of commercial and emergency stocks held. The Community should consider publishing of monthly statistical summary of the commercial and emergency stocks in the Community level. In the case of supply disruption, the Coordination Entity should facilitate the coordination and implementation of measures needed for setting up of regular alternative oil supply. In order to enable quick, effective and transparent release of stocks Beneficiaries should have clear procedures in place to take measures determined by the Coordination Entity. At the Energy Community level, emergency preparedness is recommended to be defined in order to achieve the best possible response to oil shortage. As far as bilateral agreements are concerned, the precise nature and extent of these needs to be agreed between various countries. In general, the Beneficiaries do not have surplus storage capacity so there is no obvious initial provider of storage (i.e. there is no country in a comparable position as the Netherlands). However, a Coordination Entity would be able to explore synergies and cost-saving approaches for Beneficiaries to be able to meet their obligations. It is likely that this will support bilateral agreements between adjacent and near neighbouring countries, especially where one countrys market and/or infrastructure is considerably bigger than that of its neighbours.
16.7. Community Road Map

The Energy Community is moving towards all Contracting Parties becoming compliant with Directive 2009/119/EC. To move forward towards regional cooperation, it is important that all the contracting parties can meet their emergency oil stocks obligations. Presented in Figure 97 is a road map of the Consultants view on when all Contracting Parties are likely to have completed have the recognised stages in meeting compliance with Directive 2009/119/EC. There has been discussion at the work shop conducted during the writing of this report regarding a cut off date for all parties to have in place the required legislation and legal frameworks. Should this date come about, the timetables should be revised and the Energy Community Secretariat should be involved in determining the time frame for compliance
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with Directive 2009/119/EC as the situation evolves and more becomes known by the individual Beneficiaries.

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Figure 97 Energy Community Road Map
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17. General Conclusions and Recommendations

All the Beneficiaries need, to some extent, to need enhance their crude oil and petroleum product stockholding systems in order to be in compliance with EU Directive 2009/119/EC. The Consultants found states of varying preparedness from almost compliance and having adequate facilities in place to meet stockholding obligations to Beneficiaries that need complete regulatory, legal framework and investment in facilities All Beneficiaries need to make some changes to their legal and regulatory framework to comply with the Directive. Whilst some are relatively minor, others need to draft the required laws and frameworks from a position of having little or no legislation and frameworks in place There are issues in most countries concerning the monitoring and transparent reporting of emergency stockholding and that regulations and systems will need to be developed in order to be compliant with the Directive. The Consultant found that in most cases, the data required to calculate Emergency Stock Holding Obligations, information on storage facilities and existing stock holding levels was not readily available within the timeframes set out in Directive 2009/119/EC. The Consultant recommends that all Beneficiaries continue to work with the Energy Community, International Energy Agency and other bodies to develop comprehensive and reliable data reporting systems The Consultant also recommends that the Beneficiaries seek cooperation with the European Community, International Energy Agency and other countries and agencies that have recently gone through the process of developing emergency oil stocks. The Consultant recommends that the Energy Community Secretariat will be pivotal in facilitating the exchange of ideas and experience between more parties Most Beneficiaries should be able to become compliant with the Directive by 2020 through the adoption of a phased programme of changes and investment. This will take differing degrees of regulatory reform and investment and there needs to be greater work done by all the Beneficiaries in studying how to best bring about compliance with the Directive. Given the likely large capital costs involved, the Consultant concludes there is scope for seeking development aid from bodies such as the European Bank for Development and Reconstruction, the European

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Investment Bank, the world bank and other such development financiers Data reporting in general needs to improve for technical compliance to be achieved under the Directive and there needs to be an increased level of accurate and timely reporting from companies to the relevant regulatory bodies The Beneficiaries are more inclined to setting up Central Stockholding Entities rather than obligating operating companies which, when tried, has caused reporting and compliance issues. The Consultant recommends that the Beneficiaries continue building robust institutions that have the capacity to effectively deal with the work load of ensuring compliance with the Directive. There are concerns about the costs of compliance with the Directive and there is a growing of awareness of the significant planning required to ensure compliance in terms of regulation, reporting and physical stockholding. There are however many ways in which commercial tankage providers and CSEs can work together in order to reduce the overall cost of ensuring compliance and the Consultant recommends these are investigated fully. There are strong reasons for considering a regional approach to Emergency Oil Stockholding in terms of cost minimisation but significant further analysis and negotiation would be required to implement such a regional approach. The Consultant believes this should be investigated but concludes that greater regional cooperation will be more time consuming to bring about but has the potential to bring about substantial benefits. In order to increase security of oil supply in the region the Consultant recommends establishment of a Coordination Entity for oil and petroleum products consisting of representatives of the Beneficiaries and chaired by the Energy Community. The main tasks of the Coordination Entity would be monitoring of oil market and establishment of coordinated emergency response procedures. All the Beneficiaries have a realistic chance of being compliant with the Directive by 2020.

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18. Appendix 1 - Crude Oil and Oil Product Supply and Demand (Data Tables)
18.1. Albania
Table 146 Oil Production, Albania, 2007-2020
1000 t Crude oil
2007 563.2
2008 577.3
2009 576.6
2010 626.8
2015 2,037.0
2020 1,650.0
Table 147 Crude Oil Import and Export, Albania, 2007-2020
1000 t Import Export
2007 -153.3
2008 -180.7
2009 82.0 -299.0
2010 -193.3
2015 -1,272.4
2020 -640.0
Table 148 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Albania, 2007-2020
1000 t Naphtha Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Petrol coke Bitumen Total
2007 22.8 80.6 125.7 58.7 69.5 357.2
2008 16.0 74.4 75.8 47.4 92.2 305.8
2009 22.9 56.4 81.5 71.9 73.2 305.9
2010 14.9 72.0 76.0 44.2 85.9 293.0
2015 31.2 174.0 182.0 92.3 179.5 659.0
2020 41.1 230.0 240.0 121.9 237.0 870.0
Table 149 Refinery Own Use, Albania, 2007-2020
1000 t Refinery gas Residual fuel oil Other
2007 13.5 20.0 34.8
2008 11.8 17.7 24.2
2009 13.1 17.0 23.2
2010 10.5 15.8 21.6
2015 21.5 32.3 44.2
2020 28.6 42.8 58.6
Table 150 Petroleum Product Imports, Albania, 2007-2020
1000 t/year LPG Motor gasoline Kerosene and jet fuel Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Petrol coke Bitumen Lubricants Other Total
2007 74.0 66.6 10.4 337.2 20.0 1.2 6.4 7.7 523.5
2008 86.5 66.8 14.6 347.7 20.8 4.5 7.2 0.5 548.6
2009 94.9 80.6 14.7 335.1 31.1 29.9 40.9 8.5 0.2 635.9
2010 102.0 92.9 14.0 374.0 57.6 37.6 54.7 9.4 1.8 744.0
2015 115.7 130.0 18.2 353.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 13.4 5.0 636.5
2020 136.0 164.1 22.4 410.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 17.4 8.9 759.8

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Table 151 Petroleum Product Exports, Albania, 2007-2020
1000 t/year Naphtha Residual fuel oil Petrol coke Bitumen Total
2007 22.8 4.0 44.4 71.2
2008 16.0 4.2 51.1 71.3
2009 22.9
2010 14.9
22.9
14.9
2015 31.2 23.6 1.0 27.0 82.8
2020 41.1 58.7 21.0 72.0 192.8
Table 152 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Albania, 2007-2020
2007 74.0 66.6 10.4 417.8 145.7 54.7 26.3 6.4 7.7 809.5
2008 86.5 66.8 14.6 422.1 96.6 43.2 45.6 7.2 0.5 783.1
2009 94.9 80.6 14.7 391.5 112.6 101.8 114.2 8.5 0.2 918.9
2010 102.0 92.9 14.0 446.0 133.6 81.8 140.6 9.4 1.8 1,022.1
2015 115.7 130.0 18.2 527.0 158.4 91.6 153.4 13.4 5.0 1,212.7
2020 136.0 164.1 22.4 640.0 181.3 101.1 165.8 17.4 8.9 1,437.0

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18.2. BiH
Table 153 Crude Oil Import, BiH, 2007-2020
1000 t Crude oil
2007 0.5
2008 75.5
2009 1,065.0
2010 1,150.0
2015 3,230.0
2020 3,900.0
Table 154 Net Production of Petroleum Products, BiH, 2007-2020
1000 t LPG Motor gasoline Naphtha Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Bitumen Lubricants Other Total
2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.6 0.0 9.6
2008 1.1 3.5 3.5 20.5 49.7 0.0 9.2 6.9 94.4
2009 4.5 104.7 13.4 332.2 236.8 110.1 32.7 57.7 892.1
2010 31 154 0 401 257 127 37 21 1,029.0
2015 178 740 0 1,214 355 311 89 74 2,962.0
2020 215 894 0 1,466 429 395 111 66 3,576.1
Table 155 Refinery Own Use, BiH, 2007-2020
1000 t Refinery gas LPG Residual fuel oil Petrol coke Other
2007 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.1
2008 0.9 0.4 5.9 0.0 0.0
2009 18.9 15.8 88.5 0.0 0.0
2010 28.2 0.0 92.8 0.0 0.0
2015 81.1 0.0 176.9 0.0 0.0
2020 97.9 0.0 214.1 0.0 0.0
Table 156 Petroleum Product Imports, BiH, 2007-2020
2007 12.0 305.8
2008 16.8 293.5
2009 12.9 203.2 1.7 521.1 15.0 36.8 49.2 16.1 1.2 857.2
2010 6.0 168.0 2.0 595.0 28.0 34.0 41.0 14.0 2.0 890.0
2015 4.0 150.0 2.0 570.0 18.0 30.0 32.0 18.0 2.0 826.0
2020 2.0 127.0 3.0 490.0 12.0 26.0 6.0 20.0 2.0 688.0
1.1 0.8 796.6 839.1 95.4 92.6 55.2 46.8 109.5 130.5 24.4 22.1 1.7 1.6 1,401.7 1,443.8

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Table 157 Petroleum Product Exports, BiH, 2007-2020
1000 t/year LPG Motor gasoline Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Petrol coke Bitumen Lubricants Other Total
2007 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 29.0 4.6 0.2 34.0
2008 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 30.9 4.3 0.6 36.3
2009 0.8 4.1 5.2 129.7 0.4 64.3 19.6 16.7 240.8
2010 13.0 22.4 63.4 168.3 0.0 70.0 20.0 12.0 369.1
2015 147.0 575.5 805.4 277.4 0.0 242.0 72.0 33.0 2,152.3
2020 178.0 677.1 817.3 357.2 0.0 280.0 94.0 48.0 2,451.5
Table 158 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, BiH, 2007-2020
1000 t/year LPG Motor gasoline Kerosene and jet fuel Naphtha Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Petrol coke Bitumen Lubricants Other Total
2007 12.0 305.8 1.1 0.0 796.4 95.4 55.2 80.5 29.4 1.5 1,377.3
2008 17.9 297.0 0.8 3.5 859.3 142.3 46.5 99.6 27.0 7.9 1,501.9
2009 16.6 303.8 1.7 13.4 848.1 122.1 36.4 95.0 29.2 42.2 1,508.4
2010 23.9 300.0 2.0 0.0 933.0 117.0 34.0 98.0 31.0 11.0 1,549.9
2015 34.7 315.0 2.0 0.0 979.0 96.0 30.0 101.0 35.0 43.0 1,635.7
2020 38.6 344.0 3.0 0.0 1,139.0 84.0 26.0 121.0 37.0 20.0 1,812.6

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18.3. Croatia
Table 159 Oil and Condensate Production, Croatia, 2007-2020
1000 t Crude oil Other condensate Total
2007 596.0 283.1 879.1
2008 554.8 280.6 835.4
2009 525.8 250.4 776.2
2010 506.1 225.4 731.5
2015 483.0 208.0 691.0
2020 466.0 198.9 664.9
Table 160 Crude Oil Import, Croatia, 2007-2020
1000 t Crude oil
2007 4,198.3
2008 3,473.3
2009 4,048.2
2010 4,435.2
2015 4,927.0
2020 5,425.9
Table 161 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Croatia, 2007-2020
1000 t LPG Motor gasoline Kerosene and jet fuel Naphtha Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Petrol coke Bitumen Lubricants Other Total
2007 361.5 1,202.4 96.5 220.0 1,676.5 898.4 45.4 189.5 64.8 135.5 4,890.5
2008 316.9 1,000.9 97.1 155.6 1,396.8 934.4 31.6 169.1 36.9 103.8 4,243.1
2009 354.6 1,247.7 93.7 164.3 1,491.8 877.6 29.9 107.1 19.7 179.3 4,565.7
2010 375.0 1,250.0 100.0 157.9 1,650.0 950.0 32.7 117.3 21.6 345.4 4,999.9
2015 418.0 1,305.0 104.0 194.7 2,036.0 261.0 574.2 110.2 22.5 194.4 5,220.0
2020 452.0 1,411.0 113.0 214.8 2,202.0 282.0 621.0 119.2 24.4 205.6 5,644.9
Table 162 Refinery Own Use, Croatia, 2007-2020
2007 217.4 10.9 282.0 67.8 6.0
2008 154.5 0.0 194.2 57.9 0.0
2009 206.9 0.0 252.7 69.1 2.8
2010 209.8 256.3 70.1
2015 153.9
2020 166.4
239.3
258.8

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Table 163 Petroleum Product Imports, Croatia, 2007-2020
1000 t LPG Motor gasoline Kerosene and jet fuel Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Petrol coke Bitumen Lubricants Other Total
2007 2.0 255.0 4.0 720.5 96.8 200.4 96.3 29.8 323.7 1,728.5
2008 9.4 288.2 20.5 1,063.4 73.2 191.6 150.7 30.9 246.4 2,074.3
2009 16.5 224.7 0.8 587.4 74.9 133.2 118.1 30.9 68.5 1,255.0
2010 21.9 235.8 10.9 703.0 67.2 118.0 111.0 32.0 39.0 1,338.8
2015 33.3 249.4 21.0 784.0 312.0 20.0 145.0 34.0 56.0 1,654.7
2020 36.5 253.0 27.5 838.0 20.8 15.0 153.0 38.0 58.0 1,439.8
Table 164 Petroleum Product Exports, Croatia, 2007-2020
2007 198.8 717.3 0.2 188.9 513.2 215.4 40.9 56.6 51.0 37.9 2,020.2
2008 133.6 583.8 0.6 129.6 533.2 176.2 34.8 73.3 32.1 38.5 1,735.7
2009 185.6 718.9 0.8 141.2 302.0 336.0 22.1 21.3 10.7 126.6 1,865.2
2010 206.9 796.6 1.3 132.9 572.0 435.4 23.7 56.3 14.1 151.8 2,391.0
2015 242.7 843.2 0.2 167.2 991.1 4.3 448.2 44.2 13.5 107.8 2,862.4
2020 257.9 931.1 0.3 183.8 1,150.5 102.5 425.0 48.2 15.4 41.6 3,156.2
Table 165 International Bunkers, Croatia, 2007-2020
1000 t Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Jet fuel
2007 4.4 20.1 42.8
2008 0.0 21.7 49.8
2009 1.4 5.6 42.5
2010 0.0 9.0 49.0
2015 0.0 16.0 56.0
2020 0.0 24.0 69.0

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Table 166 Stock Changes, Croatia, 2007-2020
1000 t LPG Motor gasoline Kerosene and jet fuel Naphtha Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Petrol coke Bitumen Lubricants Other
2007 -2.4 -14.8 0.5 0.5 -2.6 -46.6 -4.5 -2.4 1.5 -3.9
2008 -1.7 -9.0 -3.2 0.7 -63.5 -194.4 3.2 -5.4 3.2 -31.1
2009 -1.8 -57.6 4.1 2.9 21.1 3.9 -7.8 0.0 0.0 71.9
2010
2015
2020
Table 167 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Croatia, 2007-2020
2007 162.3 725.3 58.0 31.6 1,876.8 713.1 200.4 226.8 45.1 417.4 4,456.8
2008 191.0 696.3 64.0 26.7 1,863.5 615.3 191.6 241.1 38.9 280.6 4,209.0
2009 183.7 695.9 55.3 26.0 1,796.9 614.8 133.2 203.9 39.9 193.1 3,942.7
2010 190.0 689.2 60.6 25.0 1,781.0 572.8 127.0 172.0 39.5 232.6 3,889.7
2015 208.6 711.2 68.8 27.5 1,828.9 552.7 146.0 211.0 43.0 142.6 3,940.3
2020 230.6 732.9 71.2 31.0 1,889.5 176.3 211.0 224.0 47.0 222.0 3,835.5

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18.4. FYR Macedonia

Table 168 Crude Oil Import, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020
1000 t Crude oil
2007 1,073.7
2008 1,069.3
2009 1,007.1
2010 1,104.0
2015 1,323.0
2020 1,408.0
Table 169 Net production of Petroleum Products, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020
1000 t LPG Motor gasoline Kerosene and jet fuel Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Total
2007 7.6 178.7 17.2 423.9 370.2 997.6
2008 29.1 176.0 19.4 436.1 355.8 1,016.4
2009 28.1 176.5 16.0 391.8 343.2 955.6
2010 31.3 185.2 20.6 440.1 338.2 1,015.5
2015 35.2 318.0 32.0 669.0 167.0 1,221.2
2020 37.4 341.0 34.0 715.0 172.0 1,299.4
Table 170 Refinery Own Use, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020
1000 t Residual fuel oil
2007 84.0
2008 83.3
2009 80.2
2010 88.3
2015 101.0
2020 108.0
Table 171 Petroleum Product Imports, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020
1000 t LPG Motor gasoline Kerosene and jet fuel Naphtha Gas/diesel oil Petrol coke Bitumen Lubricants Other Total
2007 55.9 5.0 20.0 0.3 39.8 95.2 6.8 9.8 0.7 233.5
2008 33.7 1.2 2.6 0.4 47.7 141.8 3.6 9.4 0.4 240.8
2009 35.2 29.7 14.3 0.3 175.1 58.4 5.3 9.2 0.6 328.0
2010 22.7 6.0 3.0 0.0 130.0 66.0 5.0 9.1 0.5 242.3
2015 28.8 2.0 0.0 0.0 90.0 70.0 7.4 10.2 0.8 209.2
2020 39.7 2.0 0.0 0.0 76.0 85.0 9.0 11.4 1.0 224.1

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Table 172 Petroleum Product Exports, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020
1000 t LPG Motor gasoline Kerosene and jet fuel Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Petrol coke Bitumen Other Total
2007 1.9 66.8 31.7 117.1 53.8 0.0 0.1 3.0 274.4
2008 6.6 75.0 13.5 151.2 110.5 19.2 0.4 0.0 376.5
2009 4.7 69.4 31.2 167.6 85.9 19.9 0.0 0.0 378.7
2010 4.0 76.2 22.1 174.1 154.4 8.0 0.0 0.0 438.8
2015 4.8 200.2 30.7 327.0 5.5 5.0 0.0 0.0 573.2
2020 5.0 210.5 33.0 312.9 39.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 605.4
Table 173 Stock Changes, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020
1000 t LPG Motor gasoline Kerosene and jet fuel Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Bitumen Other
2007 -1.4 -2.4 0.7 -3.1 0.4 3.0
2008 1.3 18.7 -2.5 29.4 -23.2 2.7
2009 0.8 -13.8 2.5 -22.9 -14.6
2010
2015
2020
Table 174 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, FYR Macedonia, 2007-2020
2007 60.3 114.4 6.2 0.3 343.5 316.8 95.2 6.8 9.7 0.7 953.9
2008 57.5 120.9 5.9 0.4 361.9 222.1 122.6 5.9 9.4 0.4 907.1
2009 59.4 123.0 1.6 0.3 376.4 242.7 38.5 5.3 9.2 0.6 857.0
2010 50.0 115.0 1.5
2015 59.2 119.8 1.3
2020 72.1 132.5 1.0
396.0 183.8 58.0 5.0 9.1 0.5 818.9
432.0 161.5 65.0 7.4 10.2 0.8 857.2
478.1 133.0 80.0 9.0 11.4 1.0 918.0

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18.5. Moldova
Table 175 Crude Oil Production, Moldova, 2007-2020
1000 t Crude oil
2007 8.0
2008 15.0
2010 12.0
2015 12.0
2020 12.0
Table 176 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Moldova, 2007-2020
2007
2008
2010
2015
2020
4.0 7.0
5.0 7.0
5.0 7.0
5.0 7.0
5.0 7.0
11.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
Table 177 Petroleum Product Imports, Moldova, 2007-2020
2007 50.0 205.0 20.0 357.0 8.0 26.0 16.0 2.0 684.0
2008 60.0 213.0 21.0 371.0 14.0 23.0 11.0 2.0 715.0
2010 60.5 219.1 21.0 0.0 390.0 15.1 0.0 30.0 12.0 1.0 748.7
2015 78.5 254.7 26.2 0.0 469.6 16.5 0.0 45.2 15.0 1.0 906.7
2020 98.3 293.9 31.4 0.0 556.4 18.6 0.0 58.8 18.0 1.0 1,076.4

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Table 178 Petroleum Product Exports, Moldova, 2007-2020
2007
2008
2010
2015
2020
1.0
5.0
6.0 7.0
1.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Table 179 Stock Changes, Moldova, 2007-2020
2007 3.0 -2.0 1.0 -9.0
2008 -5.0 -5.0 -3.0 -7.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1.0
2010
2015
2020
-1.0
Table 180 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Moldova, 2007-2020
2007 53.0 203.0 21.0 0.0 352.0 14.0 0.0 26.0 10.0 1.0 680.0
2008 55.0 208.0 18.0 0.0 369.0 17.0 0.0 24.0 11.0 1.0 703.0
2010 60.5 219.1 21.0 0.0 395.0 22.1 0.0 30.0 12.0 1.0 760.7
2015 78.5 254.7 26.2 0.0 474.6 23.5 0.0 45.2 15.0 1.0 918.7
2020 98.3 293.9 31.4 0.0 561.4 25.6 0.0 58.8 18.0 1.0 1,088.4

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18.6. Montenegro
Table 181 Petroleum Product Imports, Montenegro, 2007-2020
1000 t LPG Motor gasoline Kerosene and jet fuel Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Petrol coke Bitumen Lubricants Total
2007 19.0 55.0 0.8 137.0 128.0 48.0 3.0 1.0 391.8
2008 13.6 64.9 0.9 189.4 130.7 42.6 4.0 1.1 447.2
2009 14.7 65.1 0.3 180.9 51.1 16.0 2.5 0.9 331.4
2010 16.6 67.3 0.3 192.2 74.7 33.2 15.0 0.9 400.3
2015 20.5 70.6 1.0 223.4 86.1 43.2 34.2 1.0 480.0
2020 22.9 71.4 1.4 260.2 94.4 44.0 32.6 1.2 528.2
Table 182 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Montenegro, 2007-2020
2007 19.0 55.0 0.8 137.0 128.0 48.0 3.0 1.0 391.8
2008 13.6 64.9 0.9 189.4 130.7 42.6 4.0 1.1 447.2
2009 14.7 65.1 0.3 180.9 51.1 16.0 2.5 0.9 331.4
2010 16.6 67.3 0.3 192.2 74.7 33.2 15.0 0.9 400.3
2015 20.5 70.6 1.0 223.4 86.1 43.2 34.2 1.0 480.0
2020 22.9 71.4 1.4 260.2 94.4 44.0 32.6 1.2 528.2

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18.7. Serbia
Table 183 Oil and Condensate Production, Serbia, 2007-2020
1000 t Crude oil LPG Other condensate Total
2007 639.0 9.51 7.3 655.8
2008 636.1 9.9 7.5 653.5
2009 662.7 11.24 8.2 682.2
2010 863.0 10.7 7.8 881.5
2015 1,352.0 13.4 9.8 1,375.2
2020 1,301.0 22.1 16.1 1,339.2
Table 184 Crude Oil Import, Serbia, 2007-2020
1000 t Crude oil
2007 2,586.0
2008 2,587.0
2009 2,281.0
2010 2,119.3
2015 3,435.0
2020 4,581.0
Table 185 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Serbia, 2007-2020
1000 t LPG Motor gasoline Kerosene and jet fuel Naphtha Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Bitumen Lubricants Other Total
2007 108.2 624.1 57.0 252.5 1,065.9 652.4 192.2 1.1 62.5 3,015.9
2008 112.7 615.4 68.6 254.4 1,048.7 571.6 220.3 2.4 54.3 2,948.5
2009 119.0 599.3 51.2 144.1 983.3 628.1 126.3 1.1 1.7 2,654.0
2010 105.0 630.0 57.0 146.6 990.0 600.0 146.6 1.5 23.3 2,700.0
2015 168.4 1,106.3 91.4 240.3 1,827.8 817.7 170.3 1.6 1.5 4,425.2
2020 177.6 1,480.0 118.4 206.0 2,664.0 592.0 198.0 1.2 9.2 5,446.4
Table 186 Refinery Own Use, Serbia, 2007-2020
2007 50.0 18.4 204.8 35.2 0.6
2008 50.6 13.0 175.5 35.7
2009 62.0 9.2 171.8 34.9
2010 57.2 8.5 158.4 32.2
2015 84.3 0.0 203.2 58.9
2020 103.7 1.0 250.0 71.5

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196
Table 187 Petroleum Product Imports, Serbia, 2007-2020
2007 231.0 3.6 6.7 284.2 428.3 54.2 22.4 0.0 40.9 0.0 1,071.4
2008 244.4 3.9 0.9 244.4 584.8 9.1 96.5 17.4 51.2 6.0 1,258.6
2009 267.5 2.9 0.7 187.1 535.4 22.5 62.7 20.4 18.9 1.7 1,119.7
2010 286.0 2.0 1.3 75.4 544.3 11.0 64.0 12.7 48.5 59.8 1,105.0
2015 271.5 54.7 1.6 70.7 432.0 7.7 78.0 1.7 54.4 11.6 983.9
2020 270.8 85.6 1.0 126.0 329.8 16.0 92.0 5.0 61.8 60.6 1,048.6
Table 188 Petroleum Product Exports, Serbia, 2007-2020
2007 6.3 0.0 9.8 0.0 15.8 41.4 0.0 0.0 21.2 0.0 94.6
2008 10.2 72.1 17.9 0.6 3.7 72.4 0.0 32.7 3.3 0.2 213.1
2009 7.5 56.8 17.4 45.9 68.0 109.5 0.0 13.6 3.3 0.2 322.1
2010 6.0 121.0 16.7 12.0 73.0 32.0 0.0 14.3 2.0 0.0 277.0
2015 23.0 502.0 38.1 31.0 614.0 224.0 0.0 12.0 3.0 0.0 1,447.1
2020 28.0 813.0 41.0 0.0 1,115.0 19.0 0.0 58.0 5.0 0.0 2,079.0
Table 189 Stock Changes, Serbia, 2007-2020
1000 t LPG Motor gasoline Kerosene and jet fuel Naphtha Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Bitumen
2007 -10.6 -1.2 -27.4 17.1 -36.6 4.2
2008 17.8 -4.0 -26.2 -15.5 47.5 15.9
2009 -10.5 -21.5 5.9 -95.8 7.3 28.9 -2.8
2010
2015
2020

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197
Table 190 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Serbia, 2007-2020
2007 342.4 617.2 52.8 509.2 1,495.4 628.7 22.4 196.3 20.8 62.5 3,947.7
2008 356.8 565.0 47.6 472.0 1,614.3 555.8 96.5 220.9 50.2 60.2 4,039.4
2009 379.7 523.9 40.4 189.4 1,457.9 570.1 62.7 130.2 16.7 3.3 3,374.3
2010 395.7 511.0 41.6 210.0 1,461.3 579.0 64.0 145.0 48.0 83.1 3,538.7
2015 430.2 659.0 54.9 280.0 1,645.8 601.4 78.0 160.0 53.0 13.1 3,975.4
2020 442.5 752.6 78.4 332.0 1,878.8 589.0 92.0 145.0 58.0 69.8 4,438.1

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18.8. UNMIK
Table 191 Petroleum Product Imports, UNMIK, 2007-2020
2007 18.0 79.0 23.0 222.0 81.0 36.0 16.7 475.7
2008 26.0 87.2 24.9 202.0 93.2 49.0 6.0 488.4
2009 44.4 91.8 20.1 241.3 105.6 33.1 47.3 5.6 589.2
2010 44.7 78.9 18.0 244.9 97.3 43.8 40.4 5.2 573.1
2015 61.6 107.5 27.5 294.0 136.0 42.0 78.0 8.5 755.1
2020 66.0 120.0 31.5 363.6 139.0 60.0 85.0 11.0 876.1
Note
Table 192 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, UNMIK, 2007-2020
2007 18.0 79.0 23.0 222.0 81.0 36.0 16.7 475.7
2008 26.0 87.2 24.9 202.0 93.2 49.0 6.0 488.4
2009 44.4 91.8 20.1 241.3 105.6 33.1 47.3 5.6 589.2
2010 44.7 78.9 18.0 244.9 97.3 43.8 40.4 5.2 573.1
2015 61.6 107.5 27.5 294.0 136.0 42.0 78.0 8.5 755.1
2020 66.0 120.0 31.5 363.6 139.0 60.0 85.0 11.0 876.1

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18.9. Georgia
Table 193 Georgia Petroleum Product Consumption, 2007-2020
1000 t/year Refinery gas LPG Motor gasoline Kerosene and jet fuel Naphtha Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Petrol coke Bitumen Lubricants Other Total
2007 0.0 18.5 387.9 44.6 0.0 347.0 0.0 0.0 163.6 14.3 0.0 975.9
2008 0.0 11.6 410.2 59.0 0.0 347.4 0.0 0.0 151.7 15.4 0.0 995.4
2009 0.0 10.3 466.5 57.3 0.0 380.9 0.0 0.7 158.7 13.5 0.0 1,087.9
2010 0.0 1.2 539.1 72.8 0.0 409.6 0.0 1.2 150.8 13.1 0.0 1,187.9
2015 0.0 -15.1 696.2 98.2 0.0 477.5 0.0 2.6 141.1 11.5 0.0 1,411.9
2020 0.0 4.5 892.7 129.9 0.0 562.3 0.0 4.2 128.9 9.4 0.0 1,731.8
Table 194 Georgian Domestic Petroleum Product Import, 2007-2020
1000 t/year Refinery gas LPG Motor gasoline Kerosene and jet fuel Naphtha Gas/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Petrol coke Bitumen Lubricants Other Total
2007
2008
2009
2010 0.0 1.2 539.1 72.8 0.0 409.6 0.0 1.2 150.8 13.1 0.0 1187.9
2015 0.0 -15.1 696.2 98.2 0.0 477.5 0.0 2.6 141.1 11.5 0.0 1411.9
2020 0.0 4.5 892.7 129.9 0.0 562.3 0.0 4.2 128.9 9.4 0.0 1731.8
0.0 18.5 387.9 44.6 0.0 347.0 0.0 0.0 163.6 14.3 0.0
975.9
0.0 11.6 410.2 59.0 0.0 347.4 0.0 0.0 151.7 15.4 0.0
995.4
0.0 10.3 466.6 57.3 0.0 380.9 0.0 0.7 158.7 13.5 0.0
1088.0

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200
18.10.
Turkey
Table 195 Oil and Condensate Production, Turkey, 2007-2020
1000 t Crude oil LPG Other condensate Total
2007 2,134 2,134
2008 2,160 2,160
2009 2,402 2,402
2010
2015
2020
Table 196 Crude Oil Import, Turkey, 2007-2020
1000 t Crude oil
2007 23,446
2008 21,725
2009 14,219
2010
2015
2020
Table 197 Net Production of Petroleum Products, Serbia, 2007-2020
2007 762 4,098 2,407 974 7,016 6,369 2,286 294 785
2008 793 4,562 2,569 577 7,078 5,363 2,244 275 436
2009 604 3,963 2,029 168 5,102 3,012 2,010 246 314
2010
2015
2020
Table 198 Refinery Own Use, Turkey, 2007-2020
2007 563 895 -
2008 493 708 -
2009 1,189 233 -
2010
2015
2020

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201
Table 199 Petroleum Product Imports, Turkey, 2007-2020
2007 2,922 578 137 7,942 483 455 -
2008 2,684 302 5 8,333 796 305 -
2009 3,075 205 621 1709 9,117 631 657 -
2010
2015
2020
Table 200 Petroleum Product Exports, Turkey, 2007-2020
2007 150 2,027 355 100 579 2,555 -
2008 74 2,572 538 69 524 2,531 -
2009 88 1,960 663 28 395 1,171 -
2010
2015
2020
Table 201 Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products, Turkey, 2007-2020
2007 3,420 2,463 2,161 868 13,504 2,867 2,269 733 1,750
2008 3,381 2,354 2,085 575 14,509 2,503 2,251 591 591
2009 3,634 2,449 1,884 1,899 13,644 2,128 2,001 652 652
2010
2015
2020
Forecast data not provided forward as analysis is proprietary. Turkeys recent consumption is included in this section.

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202
The Ukraine did not submit data for the study. Therefore proprietary information and forecasts were used.

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203
19. Appendix 2 - Economic Forecasting Assumptions

Table 202 GDP Data Used in Economic Forecasting
Scale 1,000,000 1 1,000,000 1 1,000,000 1 1,000,000 1 1,000,000 1 1,000,000 1 1,000,000 1 1,000,000 1 1,000,000 1 1,000,000 1 1,000,000 1 2,580 91,983 78,094 2,502 9,158 9,064 68,404 65,197 3,047 2,865 3,230 70,283 10,426 81,008 2,977 7,533 7,237 7,635 252 221 203 209 7,941 3,592 72,813 11,312 84,676 3,462 901 788 723 742 3,286 2,629 2,262 2,273 24,259 19,404 16,729 16,847 18,612 2,506 770 217 8,338 3,995 75,507 12,227 88,742 3,976 5,181 4,611 4,235 4,286 4,484 3,290 2,937 2,710 2,752 2,887 3,028 2,842 2,808 2,855 2,959 3,050 3,016 4,676 19,567 2,630 812 229 8,754 4,443 78,376 13,103 92,730 4,478 6,223 5,858 5,806 5,919 6,154 6,363 2,639 2,523 2,564 2,652 2,748 2,838 5,384 5,299 5,540 5,808 6,074 6,330 6,527 2,888 6,580 3,145 3,127 4,841 20,599 2,763 867 244 9,192 4,941 81,480 14,032 96,758 4,966 11,393 10,780 9,368 9,349 9,534 9,770 10,014 50,524 47,748 41,492 41,407 42,227 43,273 44,356 3,238 2,982 2,826 2,863 2,996 3,142 3,273 3,411 45,470 10,266 6,771 2,957 6,812 3,214 3,236 4,994 21,406 2,865 925 260 9,652 5,496 84,739 15,002 100,660 5,466 12,665 11,642 11,012 11,137 11,635 12,183 12,670 13,177 2,267 2,064 1,885 1,887 1,928 1,982 2,048 2,136 2,249 13,836 3,581 46,834 10,574 7,109 3,105 7,084 3,343 3,365 5,193 22,262 2,980 980 276 9,801 5,637 86,536 15,787 99,693 5,809 7,187 6,575 6,037 6,072 6,236 6,440 6,690 7,011 7,382 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 7,807 2,378 14,528 3,761 48,239 10,891 7,465 3,260 7,368 3,476 3,534 5,453 23,153 3,099 1,039 292 10,139 6,013 89,187 16,676 101,993 6,256 2018 8,279 2,522 15,254 3,949 49,686 11,218 7,913 3,455 7,662 3,615 3,710 5,726 24,079 3,223 1,101 310 10,477 6,389 91,839 17,565 104,294 6,703 2019 8,779 2,674 16,017 4,146 51,177 11,554 8,387 3,663 7,969 3,760 3,896 6,012 25,042 3,352 1,167 328 10,814 6,764 94,490 18,454 106,595 7,149 2020 9,309 2,836 16,818 4,353 52,712 11,901 8,891 3,882 8,288 3,910 4,091 6,313 26,044 3,486 1,237 348 11,152 7,140 97,142 19,344 108,896 7,596
Albania
GDP
GDP per capita
Bosnia and Herzegovina
GDP
GDP per capita
Croatia
GDP
GDP per capita
UNMIK
GDP
GDP per capita
Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
GDP
GDP per capita
Montenegro
GDP
GDP per capita
Serbia
GDP
GDP per capita
Moldova
GDP
GDP per capita
Georgia
GDP
GDP per capita
Turkey
GDP
GDP per capita
Ukraine
GDP
GDP per capita
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database and Consultant's own models, All values given in constant US$
204
26 April 2011
Table 203 Albania MAED Inputs Demography Item Population Pop. gr. Rate Urban pop. Capita/hh Rural pop. Capita/hh Item Freight-km Item Dist. intracity Item Car diesel Car gasoline Car LPG Bus large Bus small Bus CNG Tramway el. Trolleybus Motorbike Item Car ownership Unit [million] [%p.a.] [%] [cap] [%] [cap] Unit [10^9 tkm] Unit km/prsn/day Unit [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [person/car] 2006 3.154 47.559 3.5714 52.441 4.3526 2006 4.686 2006 20.821 2006 15.018 15.302 0.000 68.148 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.531 2006 14.011 8530.000 2006 0.694 0.000 92.371 0.000 0.000 6.936 0.000 2010 3.195 0.32 51.200 3.400 48.800 4.300 2010 6.261 2010 21.630 2010 16.000 16.600 1.000 61.500 0.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.900 2010 9.660 8894.671 2010 0.694 0.000 91.303 0.000 0.000 8.003 0.000 2015 3.290 0.59 55.000 3.200 45.000 4.200 2015 7.333 2015 22.470 2015 17.500 18.100 1.900 55.100 0.000 2.170 1.700 1.620 1.910 2015 5.740 9274.933 2015 0.694 0.000 87.860 0.000 1.000 7.000 3.446 2020 3.370 0.48 58.200 2.980 41.800 4.100 2020 9.256 2020 23.342 2020 19.700 19.500 2.860 48.300 0.000 3.600 2.260 2.230 1.550 2020 4.150 9671.451 2020 0.694 0.000 84.900 0.000 2.154 6.000 6.252
Total freightkilometres Distance travelled Modal split of intracity passenger transportation
Factors for intercity passenger transport by car Modal split of public intercity passenger transportation
Car-kilometers [km/car/yr] Item Unit Air plane [%] Motorbike [%] Bus large [%] Bus small [%] Bus CNG [%] Train diesel [%] Train electric [%] Note: Red cells indicate uncertain estimate

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205
Table 204 MAED Inputs BiH Demography Item Population Pop. gr. Rate Urban pop. Capita/hh Rural pop. Capita/hh Item Freight-km Item Dist. intracity Item Car diesel Car gasoline Car LPG Bus large Bus small Bus CNG Tramway el. Trolleybus Motorbike Item Car ownership Carkilometers Item Air plane Motorbike Bus large Bus small Bus CNG Train diesel Train electric Unit [million] [%p.a.] [%] [cap] [%] [cap] Unit [10^9 tkm] Unit km/prsn/day Unit [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] Unit [person/car] [km/car/yr] Unit [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] 2008 3.521 33.037 3.0403 66.963 3.2999 2008 7.838 2008 27.51061 2008 28.475 27.038 0.357 43.646 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.485 2008 6.001 6523.553 2008 5.025 0.000 84.926 0.000 0.000 5.025 5.025 2010 3.543 0.27 33.936 3.007 66.064 3.267 2010 9.520 2010 28.600 2010 27.200 26.600 0.509 42.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 3.691 2010 5.376 6800.000 2010 5.496 0.000 84.210 0.000 0.000 5.296 4.998 2015 3.591 0.27 35.908 2.924 64.092 3.146 2015 11.790 2015 31.100 2015 29.000 25.000 0.726 39.700 0.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.574 2015 4.780 7624.941 2015 5.496 0.000 82.930 0.000 1.000 5.496 5.079 2020 3.622 0.18 37.851 2.811 62.149 2.997 2020 14.530 2020 32.820 2020 30.800 23.100 1.036 36.700 0.000 1.710 1.368 1.368 3.918 2020 3.960 8600.000 2020 5.496 0.000 82.220 0.000 1.710 5.496 5.079
Total freightkilometers Distance travelled Modal split of intracity passenger transportation

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206
Table 205 MAED Inputs Croatia Item Unit Population [million] Pop. gr. Rate [%p.a.] Capita/hh [cap] Total freightItem Unit kilometres Freight-km [10^9 tkm] Distance Item Unit travelled Dist. intracity km/prsn/day Modal split of Item Unit intracity Car diesel [%] passenger Car gasoline [%] transportation Car LPG [%] Car electric [%] Car CNG [%] Bus diesel [%] Bus CNG [%] Tramway el. [%] Motorbike [%] Factors for Item Unit intercity Car passenger ownership [person/car] transport by car Carkilometers [km/car/yr] Modal split of Item Unit public intercity Air plane [%] passenger Motorbike [%] transportation Bus large [%] Bus medium [%] Bus small [%] Bus CNG [%] Bus H [%] Train diesel [%] Train electric [%] Note: Red cells indicate uncertain estimate Demography 2005 4.455 2.9980 2005 16.617 2005 19.811 2005 21.927 34.629 1.767 0.000 0.000 27.811 0.000 8.618 5.247 2005 3.174 8448.017 2005 25.863 0.000 59.425 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 7.356 7.356 2010 4.420 -0.16 2.930 2010 20.221 2010 21.000 2010 24.310 29.600 4.500 0.000 0.000 26.700 0.000 8.618 6.272 2010 2.871 9020.616 2010 25.330 0.000 64.786 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 6.000 3.884 2015 4.355 -0.30 2.830 2015 24.600 2015 21.700 2015 24.630 28.200 3.520 0.000 3.260 17.420 9.000 8.618 5.352 2015 2.655 9360.000 2015 22.878 0.000 63.700 0.000 0.000 2.500 0.000 6.000 4.922 2020 4.280 -0.35 2.712 2020 29.600 2020 22.800 2020 25.770 25.300 4.040 0.680 5.000 14.000 12.000 8.618 4.592 2020 2.456 9540.000 2020 22.878 0.000 60.500 0.000 0.000 4.000 1.000 6.000 5.622

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207
Table 206 MAED Inputs FYR Macedonia Item Unit Population [million] Pop. gr. Rate [%p.a.] Capita/hh [cap] Total freightItem Unit kilometres Freight-km [10^9 tkm] Distance Item Unit travelled Dist. intracity km/prsn/day Modal split of Item Unit intracity Car diesel [%] passenger Car gasoline [%] transportation Car LPG [%] Bus large [%] Bus small [%] Bus CNG [%] Tramway el. [%] Trolleybus [%] Motorbike [%] Factors for Item Unit intercity Car passenger ownership [person/car] transport by Carcar kilometres [km/car/yr] Modal split of Item Unit public intercity Air plane [%] passenger Motorbike [%] transportation Bus large [%] Bus small [%] Bus CNG [%] Train diesel [%] Train electric [%] Note: Red cells indicate uncertain estimate Demography 2005 2.034 3.4870 2005 2.580 2005 14.713 2005 4.662 21.599 6.070 67.189 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.480 2005 6.561 5263.622 2005 0.115 0.000 96.496 0.000 0.000 1.685 1.704 2010 2.041 0.07 3.330 2010 2.800 2010 15.646 2010 6.800 21.700 6.510 61.500 0.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.490 2010 4.850 5986.010 2010 0.115 0.000 94.300 0.000 0.000 2.021 3.564 2015 2.037 -0.04 3.178 2015 3.800 2015 16.638 2015 9.800 21.440 7.420 55.100 0.000 2.170 1.700 1.620 0.750 2015 3.670 6807.540 2015 0.115 0.000 92.600 0.000 1.000 2.424 3.861 2020 2.025 -0.12 3.031 2020 5.330 2020 17.693 2020 13.900 21.100 8.260 47.500 0.000 3.600 2.260 2.230 1.150 2020 3.040 7741.818 2020 0.115 0.000 90.700 0.000 2.154 2.907 4.124

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208
Table 207 MAED Inputs Moldova Item Unit Population [million] Pop. gr. Rate [%p.a.] Capita/hh [cap] Total freightItem Unit kilometres Freight-km [10^9 tkm] Distance Item Unit travelled Dist. intracity km/prsn/day Modal split of Item Unit intracity Car diesel [%] passenger Car gasoline [%] transportation Car LPG [%] Bud d. [%] Bus g. [%] Bus CNG [%] Tramway el. [%] Trolleybus [%] Motorbike [%] Factors for Item Unit intercity Car passenger ownership [person/car] transport by Carcar kilometres [km/car/yr] Modal split of Item Unit public Air plane [%] intercity Motorbike [%] passenger Bud diesel [%] transportation Bus gasoline [%] Bus CNG [%] Train diesel [%] Train electric [%] Note: Red cells indicate uncertain estimate Demography 2007 3.581 2.6006 2007 6.443 2007 6.084619 2007 7.383 46.160 5.206 22.068 3.378 0.480 0.000 13.752 1.572 2007 11.739 4398.218 2007 0.000 0.000 55.747 10.783 0.719 16.376 16.376 2010 3.530 -0.48 2.570 2010 8.000 2010 7.106 2010 7.800 43.400 6.000 23.000 3.555 0.761 0.000 13.752 1.731 2010 10.360 4472.405 2010 0.000 0.000 55.075 10.783 0.992 15.806 17.344 2015 3.450 -0.46 2.520 2015 10.600 2015 9.204 2015 10.700 39.800 8.000 21.000 3.871 1.000 0.000 13.752 1.876 2015 8.450 4598.840 2015 0.000 0.000 53.973 10.783 1.000 14.901 19.343 2020 3.390 -0.35 2.500 2020 12.900 2020 11.922 2020 12.920 35.800 11.300 17.500 4.216 2.154 0.000 13.752 2.358 2020 7.030 4728.850 2020 0.000 0.000 52.894 10.783 1.710 14.048 20.566

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209
Table 208 MAED Inputs Montenegro Demography Item Population Pop. gr. Rate Capita/hh Item Freight-km Item Dist. intracity Item Car diesel Car gasoline Car LPG Bus large Bus small Bus CNG Tramway el. Trolleybus Motorbike Item Car ownership Unit [million] [%p.a.] [cap] Unit [10^9 tkm] Unit km/prsn/day Unit [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] Unit [person/car] 2003 0.634 3.6442 2003 2.274 2003 10.74115 2003 10.193 79.669 0.000 7.543 1.697 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.898 2003 2003.000 2003.000 2003 38.860 0.000 18.188 4.091 0.000 14.573 24.288 2010 0.640 0.14 3.430 2010 4.080 2010 12.163 2010 12.400 64.000 12.000 10.200 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.400 2010 2003.000 2003.000 2010 34.026 0.000 30.700 0.000 12.203 23.071 2015 0.648 0.24 3.260 2015 5.070 2015 13.773 2015 14.600 55.600 12.400 15.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 1.400 2015 2003.000 2003.000 2015 29.793 0.000 37.700 1.000 10.218 21.288 2020 0.653 0.18 3.080 2020 6.070 2020 15.597 2020 16.700 45.000 12.750 22.000 0.000 2.170 0.000 0.000 1.380 2020 2003.000 2003.000 2020 26.087 0.000 43.400 2.154 8.557 19.802
Total freightkilometres Distance travelled Modal split of intracity passenger transportation
Car-kilometres [km/car/yr] Item Unit Air plane [%] Motorbike [%] Bus large [%] Bus small [%] Bus CNG [%] Train diesel [%] Train electric [%] Note: Red cells indicate uncertain estimate

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Table 209 MAED Inputs Serbia Item Unit Population [million] Pop. gr. Rate [%p.a.] Capita/hh [cap] Total freight- Item Unit kilometres Freight-km [10^9 tkm] Distance Item Unit travelled Dist. intracity km/prsn/day Modal split of Item Unit intracity Car diesel [%] passenger Car gasoline [%] transportation Car LPG [%] Bus large [%] Bus small [%] Bus CNG [%] Tramway el. [%] Trolleybus [%] Motorbike [%] Factors for Item Unit intercity Car passenger ownership [person/car] transport by Carcar kilometres [km/car/yr] Modal split of Item Unit public Air plane [%] intercity Motorbike [%] passenger Bus large [%] transportation Bus small [%] Bus CNG [%] Train diesel [%] Train electric [%] Note: Red cells indicate uncertain estimate Demography 2007 7.382 2.9509 2007 18.652 2007 10.64661 2007 29.609 33.310 11.103 24.194 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.784 2007 5.091 6050.000 2007 0.000 0.000 79.014 0.000 0.000 10.493 10.493 2010 7.320 -0.28 2.940 2010 22.000 2010 11.158 2010 29.000 33.030 10.980 25.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.990 2010 4.700 6416.770 2010 0.000 0.000 78.062 0.000 0.000 10.128 11.810 2015 7.208 -0.31 2.870 2015 27.000 2015 12.067 2015 27.700 32.580 10.080 26.100 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 2.540 2015 3.900 7078.125 2015 0.000 0.000 76.500 0.000 1.000 9.548 12.952 2020 7.131 -0.21 2.770 2020 32.500 2020 13.049 2020 26.600 31.640 9.110 27.800 0.000 2.154 0.000 0.000 2.696 2020 3.360 7807.644 2020 0.000 0.000 74.969 0.000 1.710 9.001 14.319

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211
Table 210 MAED Inputs UNMIK Item Unit Population [million] Pop. gr. Rate [%p.a.] Capita/hh [cap] Total freight- Item Unit kilometres Freight-km [10^9 tkm] Factors for Item Unit intercity Car passenger ownership [person/car] transport by Carcar kilometres [km/car/yr] Modal split of Item Unit public Air plane [%] intercity Motorbike [%] passenger Bus large [%] transportation Bus small [%] Bus CNG [%] Train diesel [%] Train electric [%] Note: Red cells indicate uncertain estimate Demography 2006 2.033 0.27 6.4500 2006 3.000 2006 9.100 10632.705 2006 5.078 0.159 91.000 0.000 0.000 3.763 0.000 2010 2.161 1.54 5.550 2010 4.330 2010 7.730 10893.094 2010 5.078 0.159 87.300 0.000 1.000 4.800 1.663 2015 2.290 1.17 5.000 2015 5.800 2015 6.190 11159.860 2015 5.078 0.159 83.100 0.000 1.565 6.000 4.097 2020 2.420 1.11 4.510 2020 7.670 2020 5.080 11433.159 2020 5.078 0.159 79.300 0.000 2.449 7.000 6.013

26 March 2011
212

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Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

7.4. 7.5. 7.6. 7.7. 7.8. 7.9. 7.10. 7.11.

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

SE SI SK SOCAR t tkm TNK-BP

toe UL95 UK UNMIK US$ VEG

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

Table 1 Summary of Compliance Status with Directive 2009/119/EC

New storage construction 97 374 600* 244* 327* 38.8

Bosnia and Herzegovina

UNMIK 906.0* 218.0

Turkey 9,225* 2,200.0

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

3.1. Methodology for Energy Demand Forecasting

Social and Economic Perspective

Assesment of natural resources

Assesment of energy needs

Analysis of energy supply options

Environmental burdens and mitigation

Financial and other resource requirements

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

3.2. Stock Holding Obligation Calculation Methodology

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

3.3. Data Reporting Requirements

3.4. Data Collection and Processing

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

Figure 3 Refiners Data Collection Sheet

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

Figure 4 Importers Data Collection Form

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

3.5. Facilities Capital and Operating Cost Estimation

Commodity Crude Oil Petroleum Products

Cost ( / m3) 200 240

Cost ( / m3) 3.0 4.0 0.4 3.8 4.0 15.2

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

3.6. Forward Crude Oil & Product Pricing

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

Figure 5 Product/Crude Price Ratios

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

Table 4 Assumed Product Prices

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

3.7. Obligation Calculation Model Construction

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

4. The Role of the Central Stockholding Agency

4.1. CSE Formation and Constitution

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level

Storage and Cycling costs Financing costs Operational costs

Expenses 70% 25% 5%

4.1.2. Czech Republic

Emergency Oil Stocks in the Energy Community Level