Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
November 2, 2011
Particulars (` cr) NII Pre-prov. profit PAT 2QFY12 1,396 797 244 1QFY12 1,330 792 281 % chg (qoq) 4.9 0.6 (13.0) 2QFY11 1,347 778 379 % chg (yoy) 3.7 2.4 (35.6)
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Banking 6.537 1.2 191/95 254,787 10 16,858 5,073 CBI.BO CBOI@IN
`101 -
For 2QFY2012, Central Bank of India reported a 35.6% yoy drop in its net profit to `244cr, above our estimates due to higher fee income and recoveries and lower provisioning expenses than estimated by us. The bank has switched over all accounts worth `10lakhs and above, while the rest (`26,000cr comprising 20% of loan book) will be switched over in 2HFY2012. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.7x FY2013 ABV. We remain Neutral on the stock.
Asset quality under stress; NIM remains flat: The banks business growth was moderate during 2QFY2012, with advances growing by 1.7% qoq (up 12.7% yoy) and deposits increasing by 1.3% qoq (up 12.2% yoy). CASA ratio managed to improve by 24bp qoq to 32.8% on the back of 2.5% qoq growth in saving account deposits during 2QFY2012. Cost of deposits for 1HFY2012 stood at 7.0% (6.8% in 1QFY2012), leading to reported NIM remaining flat at 3.0%. Recoveries for the quarter stood strong at `50cr, registering growth of 194.1% qoq. Forex gains were also strong for 2QFY2012 at `74cr (`14cr in 1QFY2012), leading to sequential 15.1% growth in other income to `324cr. The banks asset quality deteriorated during 2QFY2012, with gross NPA ratio at 2.9% (2.3% in 1QFY2012) and net NPA ratio at 1.4% (0.9% in 1QFY2012). Slippages for 2QFY2012 stood at `1,244cr (annualized slippage ratio of 3.8%) compared to `598cr in 1QFY2012. A late starter in CBS implementation, the bank commenced the switchover to NPA-based recognition system only post 1QFY2012. The bank has switched over all accounts worth `10lakhs and above, while the rest (`26,000cr comprising 20% of loan book) will be switched over in 2HFY2012. Outlook and valuation: At the CMP, the stock is trading at cheap valuations of 0.7x FY2013E ABV compared to its trading range of 0.51.5x with a median of 1.15x since its listing in 2007. However, due to near-term concerns on asset quality because of the pending switchover of accounts worth `10lakhs and below to system-based NPA recognition, we maintain our Neutral view on the stock. Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 80.2 8.5 2.9 8.4
3m (3.6) (8.8)
FY2010 2,545 14.2 998 85.3 1.6 24.7 4.1 1.0 0.6 25.4
FY2011 5,325 109.2 1,121 18.3 2.84 27.7 3.6 0.8 0.6 23.2
FY2012E 5,623 5.6 860 (18.6) 2.65 13.3 7.6 0.9 0.4 12.4
FY2013E 6,336 12.7 1,263 39.6 2.63 19.5 5.2 0.7 0.5 13.9
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Shrinivas Bhutda
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6845 shrinivas.bhutda@angelbroking.com
Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com
2QFY12 1QFY12 % chg (qoq) 2QFY11 % chg (yoy) 4,910 3,618 1,088 205 3,513 1,396 324 279 144 45 50 85 1,721 924 647 277 797 431 392 74 (35) 366 122 244 33.2 4,558 3,524 1,010 24 3,228 1,330 282 178 134 104 17 27 1,612 821 588 233 792 393 263 108 22 399 118 281 29.6 7.7 2.6 7.6 770.2 8.8 4.9 15.1 57.1 7.5 (56.7) 194.1 217.9 6.7 12.6 10.1 19.0 0.6 9.7 49.0 (31.5) (8.3) 2.9 (13.0) 363bp 3,644 2,706 919 7 12 2,298 1,347 245 202 158 43 55 (11) 1,592 814 537 277 778 240 80 107 53 537 158 379 29.4 34.7 33.7 18.4 2,657.1 (100.0) 52.9 3.7 32.2 38.0 (8.9) 4.7 (9.1) 8.1 13.4 20.4 (0.1) 2.4 79.2 390.0 (31.1) (31.9) (23.0) (35.6) 384bp
Actual 1,396 324 1,721 924 797 431 366 122 244
Variation (%) 4.0 22.5 7.0 6.7 7.4 (8.1) 34.0 78.1 19.2
November 2, 2011
2QFY12
1QFY12
% chg (qoq)
2QFY11 % chg (yoy) 12.7 12.2 33bp (0.4) 9.0 6.9 (162)bp 111bp 180bp 152bp 164bp 24bp (43)bp 255bp 45.8 66bp 126.1 69bp (1372)bp 296bp 55bp
128,235 126,044 188,286 185,885 68.1 12,717 49,071 61,788 32.8 12.8 7.9 7.0 11.6 7.1 3.0 53.7 3,840 2.9 1,755 1.4 56.8 3.8 0.7 67.8 12,686 47,867 60,553 32.6 12.7 7.8 6.8 11.4 7.1 3.0 50.9 2,883 2.3 1,082 0.9 65.2 1.8 0.5
1.7 113,737 1.3 167,813 30bp 0.2 2.5 2.0 24bp 8bp 5bp 22bp 22bp (8)bp 1bp 280bp 33.2 65bp 62.2 50bp (838)bp 199bp 23bp 67.8 12,763 45,027 57,790 34.4 11.7 6.1 5.5 10.0 6.8 3.4 51.1 2,634 2.3 776 0.7 70.5 0.9 0.2
5.7 8.6
11.5 10.0
1.7 1.3
2.3
3.6
34.4
34.9
35.2
32.6
(2.8)
(2.8)
(5.0)
40.0
32.8
50.0
31.5
10.0
November 2, 2011
The banks cost of deposits for 1HFY2012 stood at 7.0% (6.8% in 1QFY2012), leading to reporting NIM remaining flat at 3.0%. Management has guided for NIM to remain at 3.0% level for FY2012.
Bank gets extension for switchover to system-based NPA recognition; Asset quality continues to see stress
The asset quality deteriorated during 2QFY2012, with gross NPA ratio at 2.9% (2.3% in 1QFY2012) and net NPA ratio at 1.4% (0.9% in 1QFY2012). Slippages for 2QFY2012 stood at `1,244cr (annualized slippage ratio of 3.8%) compared to `598cr in 1QFY2012. A late starter in CBS implementation, the bank commenced the switchover to NPA-based recognition system only post 1QFY2012. The bank has switched over all accounts worth `10lakhs and above, while the rest (`26,000cr comprising 20% of loan book) will be switched over in 2HFY2012. The bank aims to complete the switchover of at least `5lakhs and above accounts (worth ~`4,786cr) by 3QFY2012 and the rest of the exercise (worth `24,000cr) by the end of FY2012. Considering that smaller accounts are more prone to being thrown as NPAs by system-based NPA recognition, asset quality could continue to see further stress in 2HFY2012.
November 2, 2011
2.3 0.7
2.3 0.7
1.8 0.7
2.3 0.9
2.9 1.4
0.5
56.8
59.0 55.0
Investment concerns
Low branch productivity and structurally higher opex structure
The bank suffers from low branch and employee productivity in terms of business per branch as well as business per employee. Business per branch of the bank for FY2011 was ~34% lower than large and medium PSU peer banks. Due to this, the bank suffers from structurally higher operating expenses, as reflected in opex-toaverage assets ratio of ~1.6% during FY200911.
Earlier estimates FY2012 15.0 17.0 34.0 2.5 (4.9) (15.0) 5.0 2.0 FY2013 19.0 17.0 32.8 2.4 18.0 10.0 10.0 1.9
Revised estimates FY2012 13.0 12.0 35.5 2.7 (2.0) (14.0) 6.0 3.6 FY2013 16.0 15.0 34.9 2.6 12.9 8.0 8.0 3.1
FY2013 Earlier estimates 5,976 1,420 7,396 3,967 3,429 1,254 2,175 706 1,470 Revised Var. (%) estimates 6,336 1,400 7,736 3,938 3,798 1,692 2,107 684 1,423 6.0 (1.4) 4.6 (0.7) 10.8 34.9 (3.2) (3.2) (3.2)
Earlier estimates 5,416 1,203 6,619 3,606 3,013 1,466 1,548 387 1,161
Revised Var. (%) estimates 5,623 1,240 6,863 3,646 3,217 1,781 1,436 416 1,020 3.8 3.0 3.7 1.1 6.7 21.5 (7.2) 7.6 (12.2)
Nov-08
May-11
Aug-07
Dec-10
Apr-09
Jul-10
November 2, 2011
Mar-12
Feb-10
Sep-09
Oct-11
Jan-08
Jun-08
Reco. Buy Accumulate Neutral Buy Neutral Buy Accumulate Neutral Accumulate Accumulate Accumulate Accumulate Neutral Buy Neutral Neutral Neutral Accumulate Neutral Accumulate Accumulate Buy Buy Neutral Accumulate Buy Neutral
CMP (`) 1,128 412 483 887 23 308 161 118 800 333 50 482 101 428 82 115 215 100 823 286 979 1,909 107 74 225 71 60
Tgt. price (`) 1,414 444 1,114 355 169 881 362 55 510 498 107 301 1,106 2,239 123 238 82 -
Upside (%) 25.4 7.9 25.6 15.4 5.2 10.1 8.7 10.9 5.9 16.3 7.3 5.3 13.0 17.3 15.3 5.8 15.2 -
FY2013E FY2013E P/ABV (x) Tgt P/ABV (x) 1.8 1.1 3.3 1.6 1.1 1.9 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.8 2.3 1.2 2.0 2.3 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 -
FY2013E P/E (x) 9.9 8.4 16.8 13.0 6.8 10.2 4.3 5.3 5.7 5.5 4.3 5.6 5.2 4.4 3.9 5.4 5.5 4.0 5.2 5.0 5.8 7.3 4.7 4.4 5.1 4.2 7.3
FY2011-13E EPS CAGR (%) 17.7 19.5 30.5 23.3 15.6 19.9 12.2 (0.9) 14.2 15.2 38.1 (3.0) (16.1) 1.5 7.5 12.3 0.2 20.0 12.0 5.1 9.9 41.4 11.8 15.9 5.2 13.4 (3.2)
FY2013E RoA (%) 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.3 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4
FY2013E RoE (%) 20.0 14.0 20.9 15.4 18.2 20.8 18.4 15.8 20.7 17.1 16.5 17.2 13.9 16.6 16.4 14.0 17.4 15.9 17.8 14.1 20.6 21.9 16.3 16.7 17.0 14.1 10.5
IndBk
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF
November 2, 2011
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) Net Interest Income - YoY Growth (%) Other Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Expenses - YoY Growth (%) Pre - Provision Profit - YoY Growth (%) Prov. & Cont. - YoY Growth (%) Profit Before Tax - YoY Growth (%) Prov. for Taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY Growth (%) Preference Dividend PAT avl. to Eq. SH - YoY Growth (%) FY08 2,223 (10.2) 902 60.6 3,125 2.9 1,746 3.7 1,380 2.0 528 (19.6) 852 22.5 302 35.4 550 10.5 80 470 (5.5) FY09 2,228 0.2 1,070 18.6 3,298 5.5 1,862 6.6 1,437 4.1 512 (3.0) 925 8.6 354 38.2 571 3.8 78 494 5.0 FY10 2,545 14.2 1,735 62.2 4,281 29.8 2,222 19.4 2,059 43.3 509 (0.5) 1,550 67.5 491 31.7 1,058 85.3 61 998 102.1 FY11 5,325 109.2 1,265 (27.1) 6,590 54.0 3,999 80.0 2,591 25.9 932 83.2 1,659 7.1 407 24.5 1,252 18.3 131 1,121 12.4 FY12E 5,623 5.6 1,240 (2.0) 6,863 4.1 3,646 (8.8) 3,217 24.1 1,781 91.0 1,436 (13.5) 416 29.0 1,020 (18.6) 160 860 (23.3) FY13E 6,336 12.7 1,400 12.9 7,736 12.7 3,938 8.0 3,798 18.1 1,692 (5.0) 2,107 46.7 684 32.4 1,423 39.6 160 1,263 47.0
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital - Equity - Preference Reserve & Surplus Deposits - Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital Other Liab. & Prov. Total Liabilities Cash Balances Bank Balances Investments Advances - Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets - Growth (%) FY08 1,204 404 800 4,739 110,320 33.3 449 2,432 4,812 123,956 11,537 1,302 31,455 72,997 40.9 2,320 4,344 123,956 33.3 FY09 1,321 404 917 5,091 131,272 19.0 804 3,854 5,313 147,655 11,037 1,214 43,061 85,483 17.1 2,278 4,582 147,655 19.1 FY10 1,771 404 1,367 5,921 162,107 23.5 2,751 4,575 5,545 182,672 17,012 2,205 50,563 105,383 23.3 2,343 5,165 182,672 23.7 FY11 2,021 404 1,617 6,827 179,356 10.6 7,283 5,605 8,666 209,757 14,082 1,201 54,504 129,725 23.1 2,425 7,819 209,757 14.8 FY12E 2,264 647 1,617 9,829 200,879 12.0 8,181 6,334 8,131 235,617 13,057 3,534 61,010 146,590 13.0 2,643 8,783 235,617 12.3 FY13E 2,264 647 1,617 10,904 231,011 15.0 9,386 7,347 9,414 270,326 15,016 4,055 68,193 170,044 16.0 2,941 10,077 270,326 14.7
November 2, 2011
Ratio analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Ratio Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS (75% cover.) DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Pref. Div. RoA post Pref Div Leverage RoE 2.0 0.5 1.6 0.1 1.7 0.7 2.4 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.4 38.7 16.8 1.6 0.4 1.3 0.3 1.6 0.5 2.1 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.4 41.2 15.0 1.5 0.3 1.2 0.5 1.7 0.6 2.3 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.6 42.1 25.4 2.7 0.5 2.2 0.2 2.4 0.5 2.9 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.6 40.6 23.2 2.5 0.8 1.7 0.1 1.8 0.5 2.3 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.4 32.2 12.4 2.5 0.7 1.8 0.1 1.9 0.5 2.4 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.5 27.8 13.9 8.7 1.6 2.0 8.3 1.4 2.0 4.1 1.0 2.2 3.6 0.8 3.4 7.6 0.9 1.5 5.2 0.7 2.5 11.6 65.1 2.0 12.2 74.3 2.0 24.7 105.2 2.2 27.7 126.4 3.4 13.3 106.8 1.5 19.5 137.4 2.5 3.2 1.5 1.2 0.3 54.9 2.7 1.2 1.2 0.2 54.1 2.3 0.7 1.2 0.2 70.4 1.8 0.7 1.3 0.3 67.6 4.2 2.2 3.6 0.7 50.0 4.1 1.5 3.1 0.6 65.0 36.1 66.2 10.4 5.4 33.4 65.1 12.2 6.5 34.4 65.0 11.5 6.4 35.2 72.3 10.9 5.9 35.5 73.0 13.0 8.1 34.9 73.6 12.8 7.8 2.2 55.9 0.4 16.8 1.7 56.4 0.4 15.0 1.6 51.9 0.6 25.4 2.8 60.7 0.6 23.2 2.7 53.1 0.4 12.4 2.6 50.9 0.5 13.9 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
November 2, 2011
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
November 2, 2011
10