Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
November 4, 2011
Ashok Leyland
Performance Highlights
Y/E March (` cr)
Net sales Adj. EBITDA Adj. EBITDA margin (%) Reported PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUY
CMP Target Price
% chg (yoy)
14.0 8.1 (58)bp (7.8)
`28 `32
12 Months
2QFY12 2QFY11
3,095 331 10.7 154 2,714 306 11.3 167
Angel est.
3,184 299 9.4 112
% diff
(2.8) 10.6 130bp 37.5
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Ashok Leyland (AL) reported better-than-expected results for 2QFY2012, driven by higher net average realization and favorable operating leverage. We have revised our volume estimates marginally downwards and built in flat volumes for FY2012. However, we have revised our net sales estimates upwards due to the expected improvement in net average realization. We have also revised our margin estimates upwards to factor in the pricing action and softening commodity prices. We continue to maintain our Buy rating on the stock. Better-than-expected operating performance: During the quarter, AL reported 14% yoy growth in its top line to `3,095cr, driven by an 18.7% yoy increase in its average net realization. Volume performance, however, was subdued during the quarter, reporting a 3.9% yoy decline. Average net realization improved on account of price increases and higher defense kit and spare parts revenue. On a sequential basis, revenue jumped strongly by 24% as volumes increased by 22.6%. EBITDA margin came in at 10.7%, registering a decline of 58bp yoy; however, it expanded by 128bp qoq, largely due to favorable operating leverage, better-than-expected realization and lower other expenditure. Raw-material cost as a percentage of sales was more or less stable during the quarter, leading to 8.1% yoy (40.8% qoq) growth in operating profit. Net profit, however, declined by 7.8% yoy to `154cr, mainly due to higher interest and depreciation expense. Sequentially, net profit jumped substantially by 78.6%, led by better operating leverage, higher other income and lower tax-rate. Outlook and valuation: At `28, AL is trading at 10.2x its FY2013E earnings. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a revised target price of `32, valuing the stock at 12x its FY2013E earnings. Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EBITDA (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 38.6 20.0 30.6 10.8
3m 13.0
1yr
3yr 65.2
(0.7) (15.9)
(29.1) 161.8
FY2010 7,407 21.5 384 101.9 10.3 1.6 19.2 3.2 10.7 9.2 1.1 11.6
FY2011 11,366 53.4 630 64.2 10.7 2.4 11.7 2.8 16.5 14.2 0.7 7.1
FY2012E 12,590 10.8 605 (3.9) 10.2 2.3 12.2 2.6 14.8 12.9 0.7 7.0
FY2013E 14,507 15.2 726 19.9 10.2 2.7 10.2 2.2 16.5 14.2 0.6 6.1
Yaresh Kothari
022-3935 7800 Ext: 6844 yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com
2QFY12 3,095 2,183 70.6 252 8.1 92 3.0 236 7.6 2,763 331 10.7 63 86 10 193 0 193 6.2 39 20.1 154 5.0 266 0.6
2QFY11 2,714 1,918 70.7 211 7.8 79 2.9 199 7.3 2,408 306 11.3 39 64 5 208 0 208 7.6 40 19.5 167 6.2 266 0.6
yoy chg (%) 14.0 13.8 18.9 17.5 18.5 14.8 8.1 58.9 34.1 114.5 (7.1) (7.1) (4.2) (7.8)
1QFY12 2,496 1,723 69.0 250 10.0 75 3.0 213 8.5 2,260 235 9.4 53 85 4 101 (9) 111 4.4 24 22.1 86 3.5 266
qoq chg (%) 24.0 26.7 0.7 23.1 11.1 22.3 40.8 17.5 1.5 150.8 90.4 (100.0) 74.2 58.4 78.6
1HFY12 5,590 3,906 69.9 501 9.0 168 3.0 449 8.0 5,024 566 10.1 116 171 14 294 (9) 304 5.4 63 20.8 240 4.3 266
1HFY11 5,062 3,583 70.8 414 8.2 148 2.9 375 7.4 4,520 542 10.7 71 126 10 355 0 355 7.0 65 18.3 290 5.7 266 1.1
chg (%) 10.4 9.0 21.1 13.2 19.7 11.1 4.5 63.3 35.9 51.3 (17.0) (14.4) (2.5) (17.0)
(7.8)
0.3
78.6
0.9
(17.0)
Top-line growth led by growth in average net realization: AL reported 14% yoy growth in its top line to `3,095cr, driven by an 18.7% yoy increase in average net realization. Volume performance, however, was subdued during the quarter, reporting a 3.9% yoy decline. Average net realization improved to `130,970 on account of price increases and higher defense kit and spare parts revenue. Sequentially, revenue jumped strongly by 24%, as volumes increased by 22.6%. The engine business posted volume of ~3,373 units in 2QFY2012 compared to ~3,432 units in 2QFY2011. The defense business reported volume of ~1,000 sets during the quarter.
November 4, 2011
Total volumes
178.2
72.0
50 0 (50)
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
45.0
M&HCV passenger
M&HCV goods
50.8
Total M&HCV
2QFY12
39.9 40.2 22.2 23.7 21.1
81.6
(15.7)
6.3
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
Operating margin expands on favorable operating leverage: ALs EBITDA margin for the quarter came in at 10.7%, registering a decline of 58bp yoy; however, it was 130bp ahead of our estimates. Sequentially, operating margin expanded by 128bp from 9.4%, largely due to favorable operating leverage, better-thanexpected realization and lower other expenditure. Raw-material cost as a percentage of sales was more or less stable on a yoy basis. As a result, the companys operating profit grew by 8.1% yoy (40.8% qoq) during the quarter. Staff cost witnessed an increase of 18.9% yoy, as the company added around 2,000 employees. Other expenditure also grew by 18.5% yoy because of higher advertisement expense (`5cr-6cr), one-time annual maintenance expenditure of `8cr and as production at Pantnagar continues to ramp up.
November 4, 2011
2QFY12
EBITDA margin
Net profit
7.6 6.2
(%) 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
5.0 3.5
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
Net profit beats estimates due to operating margin expansion and high other income: Net profit for 2QFY2012 stood at `154cr, beating our estimates by 37.5%, led by expansion in operating margin and a significant increase in other income (`10cr vs. `5cr in 2QFY2011). Net profit, however, declined by 7.8% yoy largely due to higher interest (high working capital cost) and depreciation (addition to gross block) expense. Sequentially, net profit grew substantially by 78.6% on account of better operating leverage, higher other income and lower tax rate.
November 4, 2011
2QFY12
November 4, 2011
Investment arguments
Demand scenario to improve with easing of interest rates: M&HCV demand has witnessed a slowdown in recent times due to high interest rates and slowdown in industrial activity; however, we believe M&HCV demand is near its trough. With interest rates expected to cool down from CY2012, we expect pick-up in industrial activity, leading to a rebound in M&HCV sales. Thus, we expect Ashok Leyland's volume growth to rebound to ~12% in FY2013E, leading to a ~13% revenue CAGR over FY2011-13E. Pantnagar plant to mitigate raw-material cost pressures: The new tax-free facility at Pantnagar is relatively more profitable, with profitability estimated to be ~25% higher (cost savings of ~`35,000/vehicle) than that of existing plants. AL plans to ramp up Pantnagar production to ~35,000 vehicles in FY2012 from 12,800 in FY2011. We expect these benefits to partially offset the impact of raw-material cost pressures, enabling AL to maintain its operating margins at 10-11%. JV contribution yet to crystallize: AL has entered into an agreement to form a JV with Nissan Motor Company for the development, manufacture and distribution of LCV products. As AL has a negligible presence in the LCV space, this partnership would be positive for AL in the long run. The JV has already commenced commercial production of its first product, Dost, from September 2011. Further, the companys JV with John Deere is expected to start production from 2HFY2012.
We believe the next few quarters will also be challenging for the company, as commercial vehicle demand continues to be impacted by high interest rates and slowdown in industrial activity. However, we expect demand to revive from CY2012 with the likely easing of interest rates, thereby helping AL to post ~12% volume growth in FY2013E. At `28, AL is trading at 10.2x its FY2013E earnings. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a revised target price of `32, valuing the stock at 12x its FY2013E earnings.
November 4, 2011
FY2009 19,981 33,071 1,379 54,431 (34.7) 47,619 6,812 5,520 442 800 23 6,784
FY2010 18,481 44,345 1,100 63,926 17.4 57,947 5,979 6,746 369 885 36 8,035
FY2011 25,226 68,007 873 94,106 47.2 83,800 10,306 10,901 356 1,062 23 12,342
FY2012E 26,487 65,967 960 93,414 (0.7) 80,532 12,883 12,120 336 1,189 25 13,670
FY2013E 29,136 73,883 1,104 104,123 11.5 89,308 14,815 14,049 367 1,308 28 15,753
22,260 60,224 823 83,307 0.3 76,022 7,285 8,102 235 791 13 9,142
Jul-06
Jul-07
May-10
May-11
Dec-04
Jan-10
Dec-07
Aug-06
Dec-08
Jun-08
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Aug-05
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Jan-07
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November 4, 2011
Oct-11
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Jun-10
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November 4, 2011
Oct-11
November 4, 2011
Balance Sheet
Y/E March (` cr) SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital Reserves & Surplus Shareholders Funds Total Loans Deferred Tax Liability Total Liabilities APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block Less: Acc. Depreciation Net Block Capital Work-in-Progress Goodwill Investments Current Assets Cash Loans & Advances Other Current liabilities Net Current Assets Mis. Exp. not written off Total Assets 2,942 1,417 1,526 529 610 2,875 451 824 1,600 2,272 603 22 3,290 4,939 1,540 3,399 998 264 3,166 88 790 2,288 2,141 1,025 10 5,695 6,019 1,769 4,250 561 326 4,152 519 973 2,660 2,961 1,191 5 6,334 6,692 2,058 4,634 358 1,230 4,367 180 794 3,394 3,528 839 4 7,065 7,428 2,385 5,043 371 1,347 4,389 104 906 3,378 3,458 932 4 7,698 7,952 2,738 5,214 398 1,403 5,159 122 1,044 3,992 4,066 1,093 4 8,112 133 2,016 2,149 888 254 3,290 133 3,341 3,474 1,958 263 5,695 133 3,536 3,669 2,280 385 6,334 133 3,830 3,963 2,658 444 7,065 266 3,930 4,196 3,058 444 7,698 266 4,344 4,610 3,058 444 8,112 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
November 4, 2011
10
(614) (2,480)
(729) (2,042)
November 4, 2011
11
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest) (0.1) (0.2) 8.3 0.5 3.5 1.7 0.4 1.9 5.5 0.3 1.0 5.0 0.4 1.3 4.4 0.3 1.0 5.2 2.9 53 21 82 15 1.5 76 40 114 33 1.4 73 49 110 40 1.8 62 35 90 21 1.8 63 35 88 22 1.9 64 37 90 23 20.9 22.4 22.3 6.2 6.5 6.4 9.2 12.4 10.7 14.2 17.0 16.5 12.9 15.1 14.8 14.2 16.7 16.5 7.9 0.7 3.1 18.0 7.3 0.0 18.0 4.6 0.9 1.7 7.1 10.2 0.3 6.3 7.5 0.8 1.7 9.7 3.7 0.4 12.2 8.4 0.8 2.3 14.9 6.0 0.4 18.0 7.6 0.8 2.1 12.7 6.0 0.3 15.0 7.7 0.8 2.2 13.3 5.5 0.4 16.1 1.7 1.7 2.4 0.8 8.0 0.7 0.7 1.4 0.5 7.9 1.4 1.4 2.2 0.8 8.8 2.4 2.4 3.4 1.0 10.0 2.3 2.3 3.5 0.8 10.9 2.7 2.7 4.1 1.0 12.4 16.4 11.4 3.5 2.7 0.8 8.9 2.2 41.3 20.0 3.5 1.8 1.3 19.7 1.6 19.2 12.6 3.2 2.7 1.1 11.6 1.4 11.7 8.2 2.8 3.6 0.7 7.1 1.2 12.2 7.9 2.6 2.7 0.7 7.0 1.2 10.2 6.8 2.2 0.4 0.6 6.1 1.1 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
November 4, 2011
12
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Ashok Leyland No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
November 4, 2011
13