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NATIONAL ROADS AUTHORITY

Project Appraisal Guidelines


Appendix 19 - Sample traffic modelling report

March 2008

Kerry NRDO Kerry County Council

N22 Tralee Bypass / Tralee to Bealagrellagh [KY-99-122]

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Description SECTION 1 SECTION 2 SECTION 3 SECTION 4 Introduction Data Collection, Model Validation & Forecasting Data Analysis and Implications Conclusions and Recommendations References Page No. 4 7 12 18

APPENDICES Appendix 1 Preferred Route Corridor Drawing - Drawing No. 09/416/003 Appendix 2 Road Cross-section Details - Drawing No. 09/416/004

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Traffic Modelling Report

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N22 Tralee Bypass / Tralee to Bealagrellagh [KY-99-122]

N22 TRALEE BYPASS / TRALEE

TO

BEALAGRELLAGH

[KY-99-122] VOLUME 3 - TRAFFIC MODELLING REPORT FEBRUARY 2008

SECTION 1 - INTRODUCTION 1.1 Traffic Modelling Report

The purpose of this Traffic Modelling Report is to describe the work that has been undertaken relating to the transport model for the N22 Tralee Bypass/Tralee to Bealagrellagh Road Improvement Scheme [KY-99-122] in accordance with the NRA Project Appraisal Guidelines (Draft) (Ref. 1). The basis and the methods used to forecast the scheme design year Traffic Model will also be addressed in this report. The following is a brief overview of the deliverables required from the Appraisal process for major schemes as setout in the NRA Project Appraisal Guidelines: Project Brief; Transport Modelling Report; Cost Benefit Analysis; Project Appraisal Balance Sheet; Business Case, and Post Project Review. The Transport Modelling Report (TMR) describes what techniques have been used to model the situation, both existing and in the future, and what the impact of the scheme has been forecast to be.

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1.2

Project Description

The proposed N22 Tralee Bypass / Tralee to Bealagrellagh Road Improvement Scheme has two main components: 1. 2. N22 Tralee Bypass; N22 Tralee to Bealagrellagh.

The N22 Tralee Bypass is an eastern bypass of Tralee Town and is approximately 7.950 km in length connecting the N69 Tralee Listowel Road with the N70 Tralee Killorglin Road via the recently improved N21 Tralee Limerick Road. The Bypass road comprises a Type 2 Dual Carriageway cross-section, which requires a minimum landtake of 33.5 metres wide. It has four main structures, a crossing of the River Lee at Ballyseedy, a crossing of the Tralee-Mallow Railway Line at Ballinorig, a crossing of the L-2020 County Road over the mainline at Ballinorig and a crossing of the L-6510 County Road over the mainline at Knockawaddra Middle. It has 5 roundabouts on the mainline with a sixth on a side road and approximately 3km of side roads. For reference purposes the bypass has been sub-divided into four distinct sections. These sections relate to the separate road alignments between each roundabout and are summarised as follows: Section A - N69 Leath Roundabout to the L-2015 Ballybeggan Roundabout; Section B - L-2015 Ballybeggan Roundabout to the N21 Ballingowan Roundabout; Section C - N21 Ballingowan Roundabout to the N22 Camp Roundabout; Section D - N22 Camp Roundabout to the N70 Caherweesheen Roundabout. The Bypass route will provide a direct link to 4 national routes terminating in Tralee (N21, N22, N69 and N70) and will provide improved access to a fifth national route (N86) via the N70. It is estimated that the bypass will attract up to 9,300 vehicles per day comprising national road to national road through traffic. Furthermore, it is anticipated that the bypass will significantly reduce the volume of through traffic entering the town centre by up to 27% (Source: Tralee LUTS Report (Ref. 2)) The N22 Tralee to Bealagrellagh or N22 Access Route is approximately 5.465 km in length and provides a separate access to Tralee Town for traffic from Killarney and Cork. At present, the N22 converges with the N21 Limerick Road at Ballycarty, 3km east of Tralee, and both routes share access to the town from Ballycarty to Tralee via the N21. The proposed route commences at its roundabout junction with the N22 Tralee Bypass at Camp, Ballyseedy and terminates at the recently completed section of the N22 Road at Bealagrellagh. The N22 Access Route comprises a Standard 2-Lane Single Carriageway cross-section, which requires a minimum landtake of 30.3 metres wide. The route has one principal structure, a crossing of the Ballyseedy county road, 3 priority junctions and a number of stream crossings. The N22 Access Route will provide separate access for Killarney and Cork Traffic and will reduce the traffic demand on the recently improved N21 Ballycarty to Tralee Road, thereby ensuring that both routes operate at the target Level of Service D, which is equivalent to an average inter-urban speed of 80 km/h, in their respective design years. The Preferred Route Corridor for the scheme is shown on Drawing No. 09/416/003, which is contained in Appendix 1.

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1.3

Project History

A full project history is contained in the Project Brief (January 2008) (Ref. 20) produced by Kerry National Road Design Office in accordance with the NRA Project Appraisal Guidelines (Draft) (Ref. 1).

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SECTION 2 DATA COLLECTION, MODEL VALIDATION & FORECASTING 2.1 Traffic Studies

A number of extensive traffic studies have been undertaken during the development of this scheme, details of which are outlined hereunder. The scheme design year has been determined in accordance with NRA Circular 01/2004 (Ref. 11) wherein it states: For all national roads the design period specified is 15 years from the date that the new section of road is opened to traffic. It is anticipated that this scheme will open to traffic in 2011 and the corresponding design year is therefore 2026. As will be seen in this section, the traffic data published in the 2002 LUTS Report has been revised in the EIS to take account of the traffic growth factors published in NRA Future Traffic Forecasts 2002-2040 (Ref. 12) 2.2 Tralee Traffic Study, 1999

In 1999, M. C. OSullivan & Co. prepared a Traffic Study for Tralee (Ref. 13) to assess the traffic implications of the proposed route options for the scheme. Its main objectives were to establish baseline traffic patterns and flows on the existing network; to assess the level of traffic which will divert onto the proposed Tralee Outer Ring Road and to examine the options of combining the N21 and N22 in the form of a dual carriageway or to separate the two routes and provide a separate access for the N22. This separate N22 Access option was further sub-divided into running the access route north or south of the existing N21. In determining the demand for the Outer Ring Road and the level of traffic that would divert on to the new road, a 10 station origin destination survey was undertaken. Traffic counts were taken at the interview stations and Kerry County Council provided geometry and count information for various junctions affected by the proposal within the town. The raw data from the traffic survey interviews was processed to give an origin/destination matrix of the vehicles interviewed. The traffic counts taken at each of the interview station were converted to AADT figures using RT201 Expansion Factors for Short Period Traffic Counts (Ref. 14). The directional percentages obtained at each interview station in conjunction with the traffic counts were used to expand the origin/destination matrices to AADT figures. As this traffic Study predates the NRA publication Future Traffic Forecasts 2002 2040 (Ref. 12), the base year traffic figures were projected forward to the design year using a growth rate of 3.5% per annum based on the NRA National Road Needs Study (Ref. 3). The report concluded that the construction of an outer ring road, together with a separate N22 Access route, running north of the existing N21 (which would also be upgraded) would provide the greatest traffic relief to Tralee town. The Report also found that the outer ring road would attract an AADT of up to 17,134 vehicles per day by 2026, whilst the N22 Access Route was forecast to accommodate an AADT of 14,009 vehicles per day in the same year. In the event, the Preferred Route Corridor comprised an Access Route that went south of the existing N21 as this provided complete separation of the two routes and therefore ensured a more even traffic split. In addition, a southern access route would ensure separate access to the town centre for both routes. It was felt that these added benefits outweighed the marginal gains in running the access route north of the existing N21.

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2.3

Tralee Traffic Model 2001 (Part of Tralee LUTS Report)

In 2002, as part of the Tralee LUTS Report (Ref. 2), an extensive traffic model was developed for the town, which included proposed infrastructure such as the N22 Tralee Bypass and the N22 Access Route. LUTS Traffic model was based on two representative options, which were similar to all other route options in traffic terms, namely Option 2 (southern access route) and Option 6 (northern access route). The Report concluded: the findings of this assessment concluded that the Southern Route was the preferred alignment on traffic groundsModelled tests including the Tralee Eastern Ring Road are therefore based on this alignment, with tests undertaken based on the ring road being constructed to wide single 2-lane (WS2) standard. The Preferred Route Corridor for this scheme is a refinement of Option 2, being an amalgamation of Options 1 and 2. Option 1 is similar to Option 2 in traffic terms and was therefore accurately represented by option 2 in the Traffic Model. Data used in the LUTS Traffic model was collected from previous traffic studies such as the Traffic Study for Tralee (Ref. 13), prepared by M. C. OSullivan & Co. as outlined in the previous section and from origin/destination surveys undertaken for the LUTS traffic model. Roadside Interviews were conducted at 8 survey site locations strategically chosen in order to obtain representative samples of all the traffic leaving the Study Area via national and regional roads. Two-way manual classified counts were undertaken at each roadside interview site. Origin/ destination matrices were formed from the data collected and further converted to AADT values. The initial land use/forecasting model was constructed using existing traffic data and Home Interview data collected by Colin Buchanan & Partners (approximately 900 detailed interviews). The model was created using the TRIPS/SATURN suite. The model was then further developed and calibrated using the data collected during the Roadside Interview Surveys and the traffic counts. In determining a growth rate for future traffic projections a number of factors were taken into account. The future traffic associated with each option was based on the existing matrix. Trips from zones with existing development were factored to take account of proposed development. This was undertaken with a methodology, which preserved the general pattern of trips from these zones. Greenfield development sites were also examined and trip rates were assigned appropriate to the type of development. National growth projections were used to determine a growth factor applicable to forecast increase in car ownership which was applied to all trips in the matrix. In order to verify the growth rates determined from the SATURN model it was compared to the growth rate factors recommended for use in estimating traffic forecast figures as set out in the NRA National Road Needs Study (Ref 3). The LUTS Traffic Model was developed prior to the publication of the National Spatial Strategy (Ref. 15). The LUTS report took account of the fact that Tralee was a potential Gateway town. Two traffic growth scenarios were tested to take account of the fact that the population of Tralee could increase further than normal projections if designated a Gateway. Growth Scenario 1 used a traffic growth factor of 1.75 between 2001 and 2021, whilst Growth Scenario 2 (assuming gateway status) used a growth factor of 2.14 over the same period. In the event, Tralee has not been designated an Urban Gateway in the NSS, although it has been designated a Linked Hub with Killarney and accordingly, the figures from Growth Scenario 1 have been used. The LUTS Report does not take account of the recent extension to the scheme and therefore no figures are available for the new Section A of the Bypass as referred to Section 1.3 of this Report. Table 2.1 hereunder shows the projected traffic volumes on Sections B, C and D of the Bypass as well as the N22 Access Route on the basis of the LUTS traffic model to 2021 and also projected to the design year 2026.
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Table 2.1 Tralee Traffic Model (LUTS) AADT (Growth Scenario 1)


Route Section B (See Section 1.2) Section C (See Section 1.2) Section D (See Section 1.2) N22 Tralee to Bealagrellagh (N22 Access Route) 2021 AADT (LUTS Design Year) 15,401 17,148 8,215 13,034 2026 AADT* (Scheme Design Year) 16,440 18,305 8,770 13,914

*2026 AADT derived from extrapolating 2021 figures to 2026 using NRA Future Traffic Forecasts 2002 2040 (Ref. 12)

Having regard to the provision of the Tralee Bypass scheme, the LUTS Report stated The Tralee Eastern Ring Road was found to attract considerable volumes of traffic and in turn provide substantial relief to Tralee Town centre (-27%) [reduction in traffic volumes]. The road is forecast to attract up to 17,100 AADT. Compared with the Do-Minimum, the Eastern Ring Road is forecast to reduce travel time on the network by 35%. As part of the Overall Transport Strategy the LUTS Report made the following recommendation: Construct the Eastern Ring Road to WS2 standard, depending on the results of a Cost/Benefit analysis (current results show a positive NPV and a BCR > 1). 2.4 Tralee Traffic Model 2007 (Revised as part of Environmental Impact Statement)

An Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) (Ref. 7) has been prepared in respect of this scheme. As part of the EIS, an assessment of the traffic impacts of the scheme was carried out using baseline and predicted traffic flow obtained from the SATURN Traffic Model, which was developed for the Tralee LUTS Report (Ref. 2). The traffic flows from the Traffic model were modified to depict 2011 and 2026 levels using the growth rates outlined in the NRA Future Traffic Forecasts 2002-2040 Report (Ref 12). The traffic flows predicted in the EIS Traffic Assessment are shown in Table 2.2 for the years 2011 and 2026. The Traffic Model carried out as part of the LUTS used AM Peak Hour Flows, which were converted to AADT by multiplying by a factor of 12.38. The EIS applied the same factor (12.38) to convert to from AM Peak Hour Flows to AADT. Following the NRA Peer Review Process in July 2007, in their formal response the NRA issued a directive to Kerry NRDO to develop alternative route corridor to Section A of the Bypass in conjunction with the NRA in order to progress the scheme through the statutory processes. Following this directive, Kerry NRDO commissioned Atkins to update the Traffic Analysis contained in the EIS (Ref. 7) to include the alternative corridor to Leath Cross with a roundabout at Ballybeggan. Table 2.2 hereunder outlines the projected traffic volumes on the scheme at year of opening (2011) and at design year (2026). The Tralee Bypass Section A traffic figures refer to the scheme extension to the N69 at Leath Cross. Table 2.2 EIS Traffic Assessment AADT (based on NRA Future Traffic Forecasts 2002-2040)
Route Section A (See Section 1.2) Section B (See Section 1.2) Section C (See Section 1.2) Section D (See Section 1.2) N22 Tralee to Bealagrellagh (N22 Access Route) 2011 AADT 8,945 11,811 14,816 6,998 11,229 2026 AADT (Scheme Design Year) 11,390 15,029 18,867 8,914 14,299

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2.5

RT 630 National Roads and Traffic Flow 2004

The NRA publishes annual traffic figures for the existing National Road Network and the most recent version of these figures is contained in RT630 National Roads and Traffic Flow 2004 (Ref. 16). Notwithstanding the fact that both the Tralee Bypass and the N22 Access Route will comprise entirely new road infrastructure, reference should be made to the volumes on the existing road network so that comparison can be made between the computer models and recorded traffic data. There are three sections of the existing road network, which will provide useful comparisons. The traffic data available for all 3 sections was determined from traffic counts carried out in 2003. The first section is the N21 between Ballycarty and Tralee, which in 2004 catered for the combined N21 and N22 traffic, which merged at Ballycarty roundabout. The second section is the N21 immediately east of Ballycarty Roundabout and the third section is the corresponding N22 immediately south of Ballycarty Roundabout. Table 2.3 hereunder gives the 2004 AADT for each of these sections with the corresponding HCV component. It also shows the design year (2026) AADT and Equivalent AADT, which were projected forward using the NRA Future Traffic Forecasts 2002-2040. Table 2.3 RT630 AADT Figures (based on NRA Future Traffic Forecasts 2002-2040)
Route N21 End Speed Limit East Tralee (Section 1) N21 Junction with N22 Killarney Road at Ballycarty X (Section 2) N22 Junction with N21 at Ballycarty X (Section 3) RT630 2004 AADT (vehicles/day) 15,450 8,120 2004 % HCV 7.5 12.4 2026 AADT (vehicles/day) 24,931 13,127 2026 Equivalent AADT (pcu/day) 27,834 15,649

6,965

5.9

11,233

12,262

The combined Equivalent AADT of sections 2 and 3 (15,649 + 12,262 = 27,911) is approximately equal to the equivalent AADT of Section 1 (27,834). The ratio of the directional split at Ballycarty Roundabout is 56% (N21), 44% (N22). It is therefore reasonable to assume that the volume of N22 Traffic between Ballycarty and Tralee is forecast to be between 12,247 and 12,262 pcu/day based on RT630 figures. Assuming that 100% of N22 Traffic will divert to the proposed N22 Tralee to Bealagrellagh road when constructed, the best estimate for the Equivalent AADT for this road, based on RT630, is 12,262 pcu/day. 2.6 3-Day Automatic Traffic Count May 2006

A similar traffic assessment may be undertaken based on a 3-day automatic traffic count carried out on the N21 in May 2006 and assuming the same ratio of directional split (i.e. 56% N21 and 44% N22). The 2006 traffic count yielded an AADT of 16,148 vehicles per day with 13% HCV. Using NRA Future traffic Forecasts, the 2026 AADT is calculated to be 24,367 vehicles per day with 13% HCV. This equates to a 2026 Equivalent AADT of 29,308 pcu/day. Applying the ratio of directional split, the equivalent AADT is predicted to be 16,412 pcu/day on the N21 (56%) and 12,896 pcu/day on the N22 (44%). Taking account of the LOS D capacity of a standard 2-lane road at 17,700 pcu/day, the N22 Tralee to Bealagrellagh is forecast to operate within the LOS D capacity in the design year (2026). The N21 will marginally exceed the LOS D capacity in 2026. However, as this scheme was opened to traffic in 2005, the design year for this road is 2020. Using NRA Future traffic
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Forecasts, the 2020 equivalent AADT on the N21 with the N22 Tralee to Bealagrellagh scheme in place is 15,090 pcu/day. This figure is less than the LOS D capacity of a wide 2-lane road of 16,284 pcu/day. On the basis of these results, the N21 Ballycarty to Tralee scheme will operate at the target LOS D in the design year (2020).

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SECTION 3 DATA ANAYLSIS AND IMPLICATIONS 3.1 N22 Tralee Bypass

As outlined in Section 4 of this Report, the N22 Tralee Bypass is forecast to attract almost 19,000 vehicles per day in the 2026 design year. As part of the NRA Peer Review Process, Kerry NRDO was requested to determine the proportion of this traffic that would comprise National Route to National Route through-traffic as there was concerns that the bypass would simply provide traffic relief to Tralee town centre, particularly in view of the fact that Tralee is the terminus for all five national routes in the town. A Supplemental Report (Ref. 19) was prepared outlining the response of Kerry NRDO to issues raised at the Peer Review including the proportion of National to National Traffic on the bypass. This was based on Origin-Destination surveys undertaken as part of the Tralee Traffic Study (Ref. 13). Table 3.1 hereunder outlines the total AADT volumes on the bypass in the 2026 design year together with the corresponding volumes of National to National through traffic. Table 3.1 National to National Through Traffic Volumes on Tralee Bypass
Tralee Bypass Section Section A (See Section 1.2) Section B (See Section 1.2) Section C (See Section 1.2) Section D (See Section 1.2) Total 2026 AADT 11,390 15,029 18,867 8,914 2026 AADT National to National Through Traffic 5,523 5,523 9,319 6,009 % National to National / Total 48% 37% 49% 67%

It can be seen from Table 3.1 that significant volumes of National to National through traffic will use the bypass, ranging from 37% of all traffic on Section B to 67% of all Section D Traffic. Taking an average over the entire bypass, just over half of all traffic (50.25%) will comprise National to National through traffic. The LUTS Report (Ref. 2) compared the provision of a bypass for the town with the Do-Nothing scenario and found that if the [Do-Nothing] network exists in the year 2021, town centre traffic volumes will increase by a factor of 2.4 compared with those existing in the year 2000 the average journey time will increase from 8.1 to 17.8 minutes (+119%), and the average trip distance will increase from 7.5km to 8.7km (+16%). Congestion on the network will result in the average speed on the network reducing to less that half of what it was in 2000, from 55.3km/h to 29.4km/h. The Report then examined the benefits of providing the Bypass: Comparison of flows with the [Do-Nothing] networkindicates that construction of the Eastern Ring Road [Bypass] will remove 27% of Tralee town centre traffic. The modelled network statistics indicate that the Tralee Eastern Ring Road [Bypass] will provide significant benefits in time savings to users reducing time spent on the network by 35%. Section 3.8.4 of the Main LUTS Report concluded that the Tralee Eastern Ring Road [Bypass] was found to attract considerable volumes of traffic and in turn provide substantial relief to the town centre (27%), The road is forecast to attract up to 17,100 AADT. The LUTS Report forecast traffic figures from a base year of 2001 to a design year of 2021. The Tralee Bypass is scheduled to open in 2011 with a design year of 15 years from that date (2026).

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A traffic analysis was also undertaken as part of the Environmental Impact Statement for this scheme using the base year figures in the LUTS Report (2001) and projecting them forward to the year of opening (2011) and the design year (2026). The EIS traffic growth rate from 2021 to 2026 was determined using the NRA Future Traffic Forecasts 2002 2040 (Ref 12). Applying these growth rates has resulted in the design year AADT for the Tralee Bypass approaching 19,000 vehicles per day along one section (Section C.) The AADT over the entire bypass is forecast to range from 8,914 to 18,867 vehicles per day. 3.2 N22 Tralee to Bealagrellagh

The N22 Tralee-Killarney Route continues to access Tralee Town via the N21 road between Tralee and Ballycarty, which was recently upgraded at a total cost of 14.8 million. This improved section of roadway has been designed to take traffic for the N21 only. The most recent traffic figures for this section of road were derived from 3-day automatic traffic count in May 2006 and show the 2006 AADT at 16,148 vehicles per day. In the Do-Nothing scenario where the N21 and N22 would continue to merge at Ballycarty and using NRA Future Traffic Forecasts 2002 2040 (Ref 12), the AADT one year after the year of opening (2005) was found to be 16,148 vehicles per day with 13% HCV. In the Do-Nothing scenario where the N21 and N22 continue to merge at Ballycarty and using NRA Future Traffic Forecasts 2002 2040 (Ref. 12), the AADT at the design year (2026) is forecast to be 24,367 vehicles per day with 13% HCV. As the capacity of a Type 2 Dual Carriageway at LOS D is 20,000 vehicles per day and as the improved N21 has multiple direct access points along its length, upgrading the existing Wide Single Carriageway to Type 2 Dual Carriageway is not suitable in this instance. The present situation means that the recently completed Ballycarty to Tralee scheme is not currently operating at the target Level of Service D as the capacity for a wide single carriageway operating at LOS D is 13,800 AADT with 12% HCV. The situation is set to further deteriorate as the design year (2026) is approached. However, if the N22 Tralee to Bealagrellagh section of the scheme is constructed, it will remove up to 50% of the current traffic from Ballycarty to Tralee and will ensure that both the N21 and N22 will operate at the target LOS D at their respective design years, thereby maximising the return on the investment on national primary routes in the Tralee Area. 3.3 Required Cross-Section

Based on the traffic figures presented in both the Tralee LUTS Report and the EIS, the proposed road cross-section for the scheme needs to be selected which will cater for the predicted traffic volumes and provide the target Level of Service D. Table 4 of NRA TD 9/07 (which forms part of the NRA DMRB - Ref. 17) gives the AADT capacity of certain road types operating at LOS D. The Needs Study also provides this information and in addition provides capacity for both Rural and Commuter routes based on the 30th highest hour. The 30th highest hour is taken as 13% of AADT for rural (inter-urban) roads and 10% of AADT for commuter roads. The capacities are additionally based on the AADT comprising 12% Heavy Commercial Vehicles (HCVs).

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The National Roads Needs Study (Ref. 3) gives further clarification of the relationship of the 30th highest hour to AADT: The relationship of 30th highest hour flow and Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) varies with traffic type and is selected as follows, based on analysis of actual traffic flow measurements: Commuter Routes: show lower variation in peak traffic and the 30th highest hour flow is taken as 10% of AADT. Inter-urban Routes: will experience greater variation in peak flow-rates from day to day and the 30th highest hour flow is taken as 13% of AADT.

It is evident that the traffic likely to be generated on both the Tralee Bypass and Tralee to Bealagrellagh sections of the scheme will show lower variation in peak hour traffic and should therefore be designated as a commuter routes for the purposes of assessment of capacity. In April 2007 the NRA issued a revision to NRA TD 9 Road Link Design (which forms part of the NRA DMRB - Ref. 17). The most significant amendment to NRA TD 9/07 being the removal of Wide Single Carriageway (WS2) as an approved road cross section and the addition of three new approved road cross sections, namely: Type 1 Dual Carriageway (Standard Dual Carriageway lanes with LOS D AADT capacity = 38,100); Type 2 Dual Carriageway - (2+2 lanes with LOS D AADT capacity = 20,000); and Type 3 Dual Carriageway - (2+1 lanes with LOS D AADT capacity = 14,000).

In addition to the amendments to NRA TD 9/07, a new document NRA TD 10/07 Road Link Design for Type 2 and Type 3 Dual Carriageways was also produced in December 2007 as part of the NRA DMRB (Ref. 15). It should also be noted that NRA TD 27/07 Cross-Sections & Headroom (which forms part of the NRA DMRB - Ref. 17) was updated in December 2007. The capacity of the Type 2 Dual Carriageway road at LOS D is assessed as ranging from Standard Single Carriageway (11,600) to at-grade standard dual carriageway (Type 1 DC) (20,000). Based on the National Road Needs Study (Ref. 3), the maximum AADT for a Standard 2-Lane Road operating at LOS D is 11,600 for inter-urban routes and 15,000 for commuter routes with 12% HCVs. The AADT figures from the EIS are based on 5% HCV. In order to fully assess the carrying capacity of the proposed scheme it will be necessary to factor the HCV content into both the capacity and EIS design year traffic figures. To do this, it will be necessary to convert actual AADT figures expressed in vehicles per day to Equivalent AADT figures expressed in pcu/day where: pcu = passenger car unit and 1 HCV = 2.5 pcus By converting the percentage of HCVs into pcus, it will be possible to express all traffic figures in terms of Equivalent AADT. The equivalent AADT capacity of a Standard 2-Lane road operating at LOS D is therefore 13,688 pcu/day for inter-urban routes and 17,700 pcu/day for commuter routes. Table 3.2 hereunder shows the equivalent AADT, expressed in pcu/day, for the scheme at year of opening (2011) and at design year (2026), which is based on the EIS figures in Table 3.2 with the 5% HCV content factored.

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Table 3.2 EIS Traffic Assessment Equivalent AADT (pcu/day)


Route Section A (See Section 1.2) Section B (See Section 1.2) Section C (See Section 1.2) Section D (See Section 1.2) N22 Tralee to Bealagrellagh (N22 Access Route) 2011 AADT 9,616 11,811 15,927 7,523 12,071 2026 AADT (Scheme Design Year) 12,244 16,157 20,282 9,583 15,371

3.4

N22 Tralee Bypass Proposed Cross-Section

The original Sections B,C and D of the bypass were proposed as a Wide Single Carriageway Cross Section (WS2). The Wide Single Carriageway Cross Section (WS2) was withdrawn from NRA TD 9 as a prescribed road type following the publication of NRA TD 9/07. The EIS predicts the bypass will attract a maximum AADT of 18,867 veh/day in the design year 2026 and therefore a Type 2 Dual Carriageway Cross Section, with a capacity of 20,000 veh/day (or 23,600 pcu/day), is proposed for Sections B,C and D of the bypass. Following the NRA directive to develop an alternative route to the original Section A of the bypass, Kerry NRDO commissioned Atkins to update the Traffic Analysis contained in the EIS (Ref. 7) to include the alternative corridor to Leath Cross with a roundabout at Ballybeggan Traffic forecasts for the design year were determined from both the existing Traffic Model utilised for the EIS and additional Automatic Traffic Counter Surveys undertaken by Kerry NRDO. The extension of the scheme to the N69 near Leath Cross, when constructed, will attract an AADT (Annual Average Daily Traffic) of up to 11,400 vehicles per day. A Justification Report for the use of Type 2 Dual Carriageway on the revised Section A (Ref. 18) (the extension of the scheme to the N69 near Leath Cross) was prepared by Kerry NRDO as part of the Route Appraisal & Selection Report for the scheme extension to Leath Cross (Ref. 8) which submitted to the NRA in November 2007. This report examined in detail the updated traffic analysis and its design implications. The conclusions and recommendations of the Justification Report for use of Type 2 Dual Carriageway are as follows: Traffic analysis has shown that both a Standard Single Carriageway (S2) and a Type 2 Dual Carriageway (DC2) could be considered as appropriate road types to cater for the design year forecast traffic volumes (11,400 AADT) on the alternative corridor to Section A of the Bypass. If an S2 road type is selected for the alternative corridor, it will require a climbing lane for approximately 2.4km of the 3.3km corridor length. The width of an S2 road with a climbing lane is 19.0m while the corresponding width of a DC2 road is 21.5m. The NRA DMRB recommends that a minimum of 5km of DC2 be provided when constructed in conjunction with S2 road. The construction of the alternative corridor as a DC2 road is the only means by which this recommendation can be complied with. A Stage F Part 1 Road Safety Audit has highlighted concerns over the inconsistency of road type with initially DC2 divided road, followed by S2 undivided road and finally with S2 undivided road with a passing lane. It recommends that the alternative corridor should at the very least be constructed as a Type 3 Dual Carriageway. Type 3 Dual Carriageway
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is not recommended on new road alignments; therefore the next available road type is Type 2 Dual carriageway. The cost of constructing the scheme with an alternative corridor to Section A of the Bypass, which comprises an S2 road type (with climbing lane) is 88.233m, while the corresponding cost estimate for the entire bypass constructed as a DC2 road is 88.540m, a difference of only 307,000.00 (0.5%). A Cost-Benefit Analysis of both road types shows that the NPV of a DC2 corridor will exceed that of an S2 corridor by 26.37m, which represents an 85-fold return on the original investment over the lifetime of the road. The construction of the alternative corridor to Section A of the Bypass as a DC2 road type will reinforce the NRA policy on access control by providing a physical obstacle to such access. Taking the foregoing into account, it is recommended that the most appropriate road type for use on the alternative corridor to Section A of the N22 Tralee Bypass is a Type 2 Dual Carriageway. This recommendation is hereby submitted to the National Roads Authority for approval.

The Route Selection Report for the Scheme Extension to Leath Cross (Ref. 8) including the recommendation to construct the new Section A of the Bypass as a Type 2 Dual Carriageway was submitted to the National Roads Authority for approval on 14th November 2007 and at the NRA monthly progress review meeting it was agreed to proceed with the Environmental Impact Statement and the Preliminary Design Report on the basis of the recommended Preferred Route Corridor. It is therefore proposed to construct the all sections of Tralee Bypass from the N69 at Leath Cross to the N70 at Caherweesheen as a Type 2 Dual Carriageway. (It should be noted that the bypass will now comprise approximately 8km of 4-lane road, which brings the scheme within the threshold for a mandatory EIS.) The Type 2 Dual Carriageway cross-section will require a minimum land-take of 33.5 metres in width (fence to fence). The pavement will be 16.5 metres wide and will comprise 4 x 3.5m carriageways, 2 x 0.5m hard strips (forming part of the verge) and a central reserve, 1.5m in width. An approved safety barrier system shall be provided along the central reserve. There will be 2 x 3.0m verges (0.5m hard strip plus 2.5m grass verge). There will be a 1.0m offset from cutting and embankment side-slopes to open drains, which will be provided throughout. The open drains will be a minimum of 2.0m wide at ground level. Finally, a 3.0m strip will be provided on each side of the road, from the edge of the open drains, as a workspace for maintenance access. Details of the proposed cross-sections for the N22 Tralee Bypass are shown in Drawing No. 09/416/004.

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3.5

N22 Tralee to Bealagrellagh Proposed Cross-Section

As mentioned in Section 2.6 above, based on the 3-day Traffic Count undertaken along the N21 Ballycarty to Tralee scheme in May 2006 and applying the ratio of directional split derived from RT 630, the predicted 2026 equivalent AADT for N22 Tralee to Bealagrellagh scheme is 12,896 pcu/day. This implies that the scheme will operate within the target LOS D capacity of a Standard 2-Lane Commuter Road, which is 17,700 pcu/day. The EIS traffic assessment forecasts the 2026 equivalent AADT for N22 Tralee to Bealagrellagh scheme to be 15,371 pcu/day and applying the LUTS traffic figures, yields a value of 14,979 pcu/day. These EIS and LUTS forecasts are within 3% of each other, suggesting that these forecasts are robust. Both the EIS and LUTS traffic assessments predict that the 2026 traffic volumes on the N22 Tralee to Bealagrellagh section of the scheme will be less than the target LOS D capacity for a Standard 2-Lane commuter route, which is 17,700 pcu/day. Another factor which should be taken into account is the cross-section of the existing improved N22 road network between Bealagrellagh and Farranfore, which has been constructed to wide 2lane standard. It will be necessary to provide a taper from the standard 2-lane to the wide 2-lane cross-section. This will be introduced along the staggered junction where localised widening of the carriageway would be required in any event to facilitate the right turn lane. The taper will also coincide with a non-overtaking section. Taking the foregoing into account, the recommended road type of the N22 Tralee to Bealagrellagh is a Standard 2-Lane Single Carriageway (S2) as defined in Table 3 of NRA TD 27/07. Details of the proposed cross-section are shown on Dwg. No. 09/416/004 contained in Appendix 2. The S2 cross-section will require a minimum land-take of 30.3 metres in width (fence to fence). The pavement will be 12.3 metres wide and will comprise 2 x 3.65m carriageways, 2 x 2.5m hard shoulders and 2 x 3.0m verges. There will be a 1.0m offset from cutting and embankment sideslopes to open drains, which will be provided throughout. The open drains will be a minimum of 2.0m wide at ground level. Finally, a 3.0m strip will be provided on each side of the road, from the edge of the open drains, as a workspace for maintenance access.

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SECTION 4 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 4.1 Conclusions

As outlined in this report detailed traffic surveys, modelling and analysis has been carried out in order to assess the traffic demands on the proposed N22 Tralee Bypass/Tralee to Bealagrellagh Road Improvement Scheme and also to asses the impacts of the scheme on the existing road network. Furthermore traffic data forecasted to the design year 2026 obtained from analysis was used to determine the appropriate road cross-section to be utilised in the scheme. A number of different traffic data sources were used as baseline data in order to project the design year 2026 traffic, namely the Tralee LUTS Report (Ref. 2), RT 630 National Roads and Traffic Flow 2004 (Ref. 16); Tralee Traffic Model 2007 (Revised as part of Environmental Impact Statement (Ref. 7)) and a 3-Day Automatic Traffic Count carried out on the N21 in May 2006. When compared, the design year (2026) traffic projected from each of traffic sources yielded similar results and implications with regard to the required road cross-section for the scheme. The scheme will cater for significant volumes of National to National through traffic, aswell as providing traffic relief both to Tralee Town and the N21 Ballycarty to Tralee road scheme. Traffic analysis has shown that upto 50% of the traffic on the Tralee Bypass will comprise National to National through traffic. It has further shown that when completed, the scheme will remove up to 27% of traffic from the town centre and will reduce travel times by 35%. The scheme will also ensure that the N21 Ballycarty to Tralee road will operate at the Trarget LOS D at its design year of 2020. The scheme will improve the link between the 5 national routes teminating in Tralee and improve the transport corridor between the Tralee-Killarney Linked Hub, as defined in the National Spatial Strategy. 4.2 Recommendations

It is proposed to adopt a Type 2 Dual Carriageway cross-section for the N22 Tralee Bypass and a Standard 2-Lane Single Carriageway cross-section for the N22 Tralee to Bealagrellagh Section (N22 Access Route).

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REFERENCES 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. NRA Project Appraisal Guidelines (Draft). National Roads Authority, December 2007. Land Use and Transportation Study for the Electoral Area of Tralee. Colin Buchanan & Partners, 2002. NRA National Road Needs Study. National Roads Authority, 1998. Tralee Ring Road and N22 Ratass to Bealagrellagh Route Constraints Report. Kerry NRDO, January 2000. N22 Tralee Bypass/Tralee to Bealagrellagh [KY-99-122] Route Appraisal and Selection Report. Kerry NRDO, August 2002. NRA Environmental Assessment and Construction Guidelines. National Roads Authority, March 2006. N22 Tralee Bypass/Tralee to Bealagrellagh [KY-99-122] Environmental Impact Statement. Atkins, 2007. N22 Tralee Bypass/Tralee to Bealagrellagh [KY-99-122] Scheme Extension to the N69 near Leath Cross Route Appraisal and Selection Report. Kerry NRDO, November 2007. N22 Tralee Bypass/Tralee to Bealagrellagh [KY-99-122] Preliminary Design Report (Draft). Kerry NRDO, December 2007. 2003 Kerry County Development Plan. Kerry County Council, 2003. NRA Circular 01/2004 re: Future Traffic Forecasts. National Roads Authority, January 2004. NRA Future Traffic Forecasts 2002-2040. National Roads Authority, August 2003. M.C. OSullivan Tralee Traffic Survey. M.C. OSullivan Consulting Engineers, 1999. RT201 Expansion Factors for Short Period Traffic Counts. National Roads Authority, 1978. National Spatial Strategy for Ireland 2002 2020. Government of Ireland, 2002. NRA RT 630 National Roads and Traffic Flow 2004 (preliminary figures). National Roads Authority, June 2005. NRA Design Manual for Roads and Bridges. National Roads Authority. N22 Tralee Bypass / Tralee to Bealagrellagh Scheme Extension to N69 near Leath Cross Justification Report for use of Type 2 Dual Carriageway. Kerry NRDO, October 2007. N22 Tralee Bypass/Tralee to Bealagrellagh [KY-99-122] NRA Peer Review Supplemental Report May 2007. Kerry NRDO, May 2007. Project Brief (January 2008). Kerry National Road Design Office, January 2008.

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APPENDIX 1 Preferred Route Corridor Drawing - Drawing No. 09/416/003

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APPENDIX 2
Road Cross-section Details - Drawing No. 09/416/004

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