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Portfolio Strategy United States
Table of contents
1 US mutual fund managers boost foreign equity exposure
9 Disclosures
The prices in this report are based on the market close of October 13, 2006.
For the typical US large-cap mutual fund, foreign stock holdings now account for
an average of 8.4% of total equity assets compared with just 1.2% in 2000 (see
Exhibit 1). We analyzed $780 billion of equity holdings of 90 mutual funds in the Lipper
Large-cap Core, Growth, and Value benchmark indices. Since 2003, Lipper large-cap
Growth funds have led other Lipper large-cap mutual fund classes in foreign stock
exposure. Growth managers invest on average 9.3% of their portfolios in foreign equities,
compared with an 8.0% average weighting for both large-cap Core and Value managers.
On a combined basis stocks in Japan and Asia Ex-Japan account for less than 1%
of total equity assets of the average US large-cap mutual fund. The majority of
foreign holdings of US large-cap mutual funds is in Europe and North America (Ex-US).
10
9 Large-Cap Growth
as % of Total Holdings
8
Large-Cap Value
Foreign Assets
7
6
5
4 Large-Cap Core
3
2
1
0
Jun-01
Jun-02
Jun-03
Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Exhibit 2: We recommend buying foreign stocks with greatest upside potential to Goldman Sachs target prices
as of October 13, 2006
Equity Local Currency Upside to
Cap Price Target Goldman Sachs
Company Ticker (a) Country Sector (USD bil) Currency 13-Oct Price Target Price (%)
Europe
Vestas Wind Systems VWS.CO Denmark Industrials 5 Dkr 151.00 229.02 52
TomTom TOM2.AS Netherlands Information Technology 4 €€ 31.30 47.00 50
Vedanta Resources VED.L United Kingdom Materials 7 GBp 1,381.00 2,040.00 48
Xstrata plc XTA.L United Kingdom Materials 26 GBp 2,203.00 3,025.00 37
Nobel Biocare NOBE.VX Switzerland Healthcare 6 SFr 306.25 405.00 32
Metro MEOG.DE Germany Consumer Staples 19 €€ 46.35 59.00 27
Puma PUMG.DE Germany Consumer Discretionary 6 €€ 283.00 341.00 20
Infineon IFXGn.DE Germany Technology 9 €€ 10.03 12.00 20
Aker Kvaerner AKVER.OL Norway Energy 5 Nkr 615.00 730.00 19
SAP (Ordinary Share) SAPG.DE Germany Information Technology 63 €€ 164.96 195.00 18
Japan
Credit Saison 8253.T Japan Financials 7 ¥ 4,800 7,700 60
Mizuho Financial Group 8411.T Japan Financials 90 ¥ 902,000 1,350,000 50
Fuji Television Network 4676.T Japan Consumer Discretionary 5 ¥ 240,000 340,000 42
Mitsui & Co. 8031.T Japan Industrials 21 ¥ 1,558 2,160 39
Mitsui Trust Holdings 8309.T Japan Financial Services 9 ¥ 1,366 1,877 37
Komatsu 6301.T Japan Industrials 18 ¥ 2,180 2,900 33
INPEX Holdings 1605.T Japan Energy 18 ¥ 937,000 1,230,000 31
Mazda Motor 7261.T Japan Consumer Cyclicals 9 ¥ 779 900 16
Eisai 4523.T Japan Healthcare 15 ¥ 6,090 6,800 12
Sumitomo Realty & Development 8830.T Japan Financials 15 ¥ 3,810 4,122 8
Asia (ex-Japan)
High Tech Computer 2498.TW Taiwan Information Technology 11 NT$ 821.00 1,157.00 41
ProMOS Technologies 5387.TWO Taiwan Information Technology 2 NT$ 13.60 19.00 40
China Vanke (A) 000002.SZ China Financials 3 Rmb 7.11 9.81 38
Hong Kong Exchanges 0388.HK Hong Kong Financials 8 HK$ 58.10 80.00 38
Kweichow Moutai 600519.SS China Consumer Staples 6 Rmb 47.40 58.00 22
Huaneng Power International 0902.HK China Utilities 9 HK$ 5.84 7.10 22
DSME (GDR) 4266q.L South Korea Industrials 6 USD 67.11 81.00 21
GS Holdings 078930.KS South Korea Energy 3 W 31,700.00 36,900.00 16
Bank of East Asia 0023.HK Hong Kong Financials 7 HK$ 37.90 42.00 11
Samsung Electronics 005930.KS South Korea Information Technology 100 W 650,000.00 715,000.00 10
Global equity returns have varied widely YTD in 2006, with Asia (ex-Japan) up 16% and
Japan returning 3%. This range explains the breakdown in the correlation between US
large-cap core mutual fund returns and the percentage of their portfolio allocated to
foreign equities. Based on 2006 YTD performance, the correlation equals negative 0.28.
12 14
2
R = 0.115 12
10
10
Total Return (%)
8
8 2
6 R = 0.0779
Higher % invested abroad 6
4 correlated with higher return Correlation has reversed in
4
2006 YTD
2 2
0 0
Stocks in Japan and Asia (outside of Japan) on a combined basis account for just
0.9% of total equity assets of the average US large-cap mutual fund. Separately,
Japanese stocks account for 0.4% of total equity assts and 5% of total foreign stock
holdings. Asian equities outside of Japan account for 0.5% of total equity assts, or 6% of
total foreign stock holdings.
US large-cap Value managers, in particular, tend to avoid the Asian markets and
focus almost entirely within the Western Hemisphere.
US large-cap Growth managers have six times as much capital allocated to Europe
than Asia Ex-Japan (4.7% vs. 0.8%), with Japanese stock holdings accounting for
an extremely modest 0.4% allocation. GDP growth in Asia ex-Japan has outpaced the
US and Europe for the past five years, and Goldman Sachs Economics expects this trend
to continue through 2007. We expect Growth managers will increase their focus on the
Asian markets as sustained economic expansion creates new investment opportunities.
Holdings by Region
N. America Asia
USA Europe Japan Other (a)
(ex-USA) (ex-Japan)
Large-Cap Core 92.0% 4.3% 2.3 0.7% 0.4% 0.2%
Equity Total Return (2005) 4.9% 21.6% 27.5% 23.2% 40.2% 32.6%
Equity Total Return (2006 YTD) 11.0 10.7 8.6 15.9 2.6 15.5
(a) Other includes Australia, South America, Africa and the Middle East.
Exhibit 6: Foreign stocks with highest number of US large-cap mutual fund investors (of 90 Lipper benchmark funds)
as of October 13, 2006
No. of US
Equity Local Currency Large-Cap
Cap Price Total Mutual Fund
Company Ticker Rating Country Sector (USD bil) Currency 13-Oct Return YTD Investors
Europe
Nokia Corp (ADR) NOK Neutral Finland Information Technology 80 USD 20.20 12 % 26
Roche Hldgs Ag 7110388 Buy Switzerland Health Care 122 SwF 221.50 14 18
Alcon Inc ACL NC Switzerland Health Care 34 USD 111.12 (13) 14
Novartis Ag (ADR) NVS Neutral Switzerland Health Care 136 USD 57.09 10 12
BP Plc (ADR) BP Neutral United Kingdom Energy 212 USD 65.97 5 10
Diageo Plc (ADR) DEO Neutral United Kingdom Consumer Staples 49 USD 71.40 27 9
TOTAL Sa (ADR) TOT Neutral France Energy 151 USD 65.72 7 9
Nestle Sa 7123870 Neutral Switzerland Consumer Staples 139 SwF 436.75 14 8
Glaxosmithkline Plc (ADR) GSK Neutral United Kingdom Health Care 153 USD 54.00 10 8
SAP AG (ADR) SAP Buy Germany Information Technology 63 USD 51.68 15 8
Japan
Toyota Motor Corp (ADR) TM Neutral Japan Consumer Discretionary 186 USD 116.20 11 % 5
Sumitomo Mitsui Fg 8316 NC Japan Financials 81 ¥ 1,240,000.00 (1) 3
Mizuho Finl Gp 8411 Buy Japan Financials 92 ¥ 896,000.00 (4) 3
Honda Motor Ltd -Am Shares HMC Neutral Japan Consumer Discretionary 63 USD 34.68 21 3
Nissan Motor Co 7201 Buy Japan Consumer Discretionary 53 ¥ 1,411.00 21 2
Canon Inc 7751 Buy Japan Information Technology 74 ¥ 6,440.00 41 2
Mitsubishi Corp 8058 Neutral Japan Industrials 29 ¥ 2,160.00 (16) 2
Mitsubishi Estate 8802 Buy Japan Financials 32 ¥ 2,805.00 15 2
Mitsubishi Ufj Finl Gp (ADR) MTU Neutral Japan Financials 122 USD 12.70 (7) 2
Kirin Brewery Co 2503 Neutral Japan Consumer Staples 13 ¥ 1,572.00 15 1
Asia (ex-Japan)
Flextronics International FLEX Buy Singapore Information Technology 7 USD 13.19 26 % 5
Infosys Technologies (ADR) INFY Neutral India Information Technology 27 USD 52.03 30 4
Samsung Electronic 6771720 Buy South Korea Information Technology 98 W 644,000.00 (2) 4
Tata Steel Ltd 6101156 NC India Materials 7 Rs 511.30 38 3
Bhp Billiton Ltd 6144690 Neutral Australia Materials 67 A$ 26.50 19 3
China Merchant Hld 6416139 NR Hong Kong Industrials 7 USD 22.75 38 3
Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) TSM NC Taiwan Information Technology 50 USD 10.30 11 3
Housing Devel Fin 6171900 NC India Financials 8 Rs 1,532.55 29 2
Bharti Airtel Ltd 6442327 NC India Telecommunication Services 19 Rs 477.60 38 2
Satyam Computr Svc Ltd (ADR) SAY Buy India Information Technology 7 USD 43.48 19 2
US large-cap Core managers prefer foreign Industrials and Materials stocks relative
to domestic companies. Managers seek leverage to the global economy through foreign
cyclicals. US Financials, which account for 21% of total US large-cap Core fund assets,
have minimal international exposure with just 4% of Financials holdings in foreign stocks
and 96% domestic. We are not surprised by the lack of investment in foreign Financials,
given that large US-based Financials such as Morgan Stanley (MS, Buy) and Citigroup
(C, Neutral) generate a significant amount of their profits from international operations.
US large-cap Growth funds are highly exposed to foreign Telecom Services, Health
Care and Materials stocks. Foreign stocks represent 49% of Growth funds’ Telecom
holdings, but the sector only accounts for 1% of total portfolio assets. Growth managers
invest an average of 15% of their Health Care holdings in foreign stocks, a sector that
accounts for 17% of total equity assets in the typical Growth fund portfolios. Four of the
ten most commonly owned foreign stocks by Growth managers are Pharmaceutical
companies, such as Roche Holdings (ROG.VX, Buy) and Novartis (NOVN.VX, Neutral).
US large-cap Value fund are heavily exposed to foreign Energy companies. The
most commonly owned companies are such large-cap Energy bellwethers as British
Petroleum (BP, Neutral), Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa, Buy) and TOTAL (TOTF.PA,
Neutral). Similar to Core funds, Value funds seem to shy away from foreign Financials
and Consumer Discretionary stocks.
Reg AC
I, David J. Kostin, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately
reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their
securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or
indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Disclosures
As of October 1, 2006, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research had investment ratings on 2,245 equity securities. Prior
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Ratings, coverage groups and views and related definitions
Buy (B), Neutral (N), Sell (S) – Analysts recommend stocks as Buys or Sells for inclusion on various regional Investment Lists. Being assigned a
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(NC). Goldman Sachs does not cover this company. Not Available or Not Applicable (NA). The information is not available for display or is not
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Ratings, coverage views and related definitions prior to June 26, 2006
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