Sie sind auf Seite 1von 15

US Mutual funds:

Portfolio Strategy foreign stock focus

US Equity Views

" The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.


Going abroad: US Mutual Funds migrating overseas.
US large-cap mutual funds have boosted foreign stock holdings to
October 16, 2006
8.4% of equity assets currently vs. just 1.2% in 2000. Europe has
dominated this migration, with less than 1% in Asia. We identify
the most popular positions and highlight 30 new investment ideas.

US large-cap mutual fund managers lift foreign equity holdings above 8%


The never-ending quest for better returns has led portfolio managers of US large-cap mutual
funds to boost their exposure to non-US stocks. We analyzed $780 billion of equity holdings
of 90 mutual funds in the Lipper Large-cap Core, Growth, and Value benchmark indices.
Foreign stock holdings of large-cap Growth mutual funds range between 0% and 19%.
US mutual fund portfolio managers buy European, but avoid Asian stocks
On a combined basis stocks in Japan and Asia Ex-Japan account for less than 1% of total
equity assets of the average US large-cap mutual fund. A majority of foreign holdings of US
large-cap mutual funds is in Europe and North America (Ex-US, Bermuda, Cayman Islands).

Foreign stocks enhanced returns in 2005 but not in 2006


A positive correlation existed in 2005 between US large-cap core mutual fund returns and the
percentage of foreign equity investments in a portfolio. This correlation broke down in 2006.

Invest in 30 stocks with the largest upside to Goldman Sachs Price Targets
We identify 10 stocks in each region with upside return to our target prices averaging 30%.

Large-Cap Mutual Funds have increased international exposure since 2000


Foreign Holdings as Percent of Mutual Fund Total Assets
Lipper Benchmarks Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Sep-06
Large-Cap Core 3.3% 3.5% 3.2% 4.4% 4.9% 7.3% 8.0%
Large-Cap Growth 0.9 2.9 2.2 5.0 6.7 8.4 9.3
Large-Cap Value 1.4 3.0 3.5 5.2 6.1 7.4 8.0

Average 1.8% 3.1% 3.0% 4.9% 5.9% 7.7% 8.4%

Source: Compustat, LionShares via FactSet, Goldman Sachs.

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its
research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of
interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only
a single factor in making their investment decision.
Customers of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. in the United States can receive independent, third-
party research on the company or companies covered in this report, at no cost to them, where
such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at
Analysts employed by non-US http://www.independentresearch.gs.com or can call 1-866-727-7000 to request a copy of this research.
affiliates are not required to take For Reg AC certification, see page 8. For other important disclosures, see page 11, go to
the NASD/NYSE analyst exam. http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html, or contact your investment representative.
Portfolio Strategy United States

Table of contents
1 US mutual fund managers boost foreign equity exposure

2 Buy foreign stocks with greatest upside to our target prices

3 Foreign stocks enhanced returns in 2005 but not in 2006

4 US mutual funds buy European, but avoid Asian stocks

5 Foreign stocks most commonly owned by US large-cap funds

6 Appendix: Amount of foreign stock allocation varies by sector

9 Disclosures

The prices in this report are based on the market close of October 13, 2006.

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research


United States Portfolio Strategy

US mutual fund managers boost foreign equity exposure


US equity investors have steadily increased the percentage of their investments in
foreign securities during the past 25 years. In the never-ending quest for better
returns, portfolio managers of US large-cap mutual funds have boosted their exposure to
non-US equities. Separately, retail investors have poured a torrent of capital into mutual
funds dedicated to international stocks and assets in these funds now total $82 billion.

For the typical US large-cap mutual fund, foreign stock holdings now account for
an average of 8.4% of total equity assets compared with just 1.2% in 2000 (see
Exhibit 1). We analyzed $780 billion of equity holdings of 90 mutual funds in the Lipper
Large-cap Core, Growth, and Value benchmark indices. Since 2003, Lipper large-cap
Growth funds have led other Lipper large-cap mutual fund classes in foreign stock
exposure. Growth managers invest on average 9.3% of their portfolios in foreign equities,
compared with an 8.0% average weighting for both large-cap Core and Value managers.

On a combined basis stocks in Japan and Asia Ex-Japan account for less than 1%
of total equity assets of the average US large-cap mutual fund. The majority of
foreign holdings of US large-cap mutual funds is in Europe and North America (Ex-US).

We believe global growth will continue to outpace US economic growth in 2007.


Goldman Sachs Economics expects real US GDP to decelerate to 2.3% in 2007 from
3.4% in 2006 while global GDP slows to 3.8% in 2007 from 4.6% in 2006. Although a
slowing US economy has typically weighed heavily on global output, we believe above-
trend global growth may continue, lead by the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China).

We encourage US large-cap mutual fund managers to consider 30 foreign stocks


with 30% average upside return to the Goldman Sachs target price (see Exhibit 2).

Exhibit 1: Large-Cap Funds International Holdings


as of October 9, 2006

10
9 Large-Cap Growth
as % of Total Holdings

8
Large-Cap Value
Foreign Assets

7
6
5
4 Large-Cap Core
3
2
1
0
Jun-01

Jun-02

Jun-03

Jun-04

Jun-05

Jun-06

Jun-07

Jun-08

Jun-09
Dec-00

Dec-01

Dec-02

Dec-03

Dec-04

Dec-05

Dec-06

Dec-07

Dec-08

Source: Federal Reserve, LionShares via FactSet, Goldman Sachs Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 1


Portfolio Strategy United States

Buy foreign stocks with greatest upside to our target prices


Exhibit 2 features ten large-cap stocks in each region that offer attractive
investment opportunities. We screened the Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy Lists
within each region for stocks with the greatest potential upside to target prices set by
covering research analysts. The upside potential for the 30 stocks listed below ranges
from 8% to 60%, with an average of 30%.

Exhibit 2: We recommend buying foreign stocks with greatest upside potential to Goldman Sachs target prices
as of October 13, 2006
Equity Local Currency Upside to
Cap Price Target Goldman Sachs
Company Ticker (a) Country Sector (USD bil) Currency 13-Oct Price Target Price (%)

Europe
Vestas Wind Systems VWS.CO Denmark Industrials 5 Dkr 151.00 229.02 52
TomTom TOM2.AS Netherlands Information Technology 4 €€ 31.30 47.00 50
Vedanta Resources VED.L United Kingdom Materials 7 GBp 1,381.00 2,040.00 48
Xstrata plc XTA.L United Kingdom Materials 26 GBp 2,203.00 3,025.00 37
Nobel Biocare NOBE.VX Switzerland Healthcare 6 SFr 306.25 405.00 32
Metro MEOG.DE Germany Consumer Staples 19 €€ 46.35 59.00 27
Puma PUMG.DE Germany Consumer Discretionary 6 €€ 283.00 341.00 20
Infineon IFXGn.DE Germany Technology 9 €€ 10.03 12.00 20
Aker Kvaerner AKVER.OL Norway Energy 5 Nkr 615.00 730.00 19
SAP (Ordinary Share) SAPG.DE Germany Information Technology 63 €€ 164.96 195.00 18

Japan
Credit Saison 8253.T Japan Financials 7 ¥ 4,800 7,700 60
Mizuho Financial Group 8411.T Japan Financials 90 ¥ 902,000 1,350,000 50
Fuji Television Network 4676.T Japan Consumer Discretionary 5 ¥ 240,000 340,000 42
Mitsui & Co. 8031.T Japan Industrials 21 ¥ 1,558 2,160 39
Mitsui Trust Holdings 8309.T Japan Financial Services 9 ¥ 1,366 1,877 37
Komatsu 6301.T Japan Industrials 18 ¥ 2,180 2,900 33
INPEX Holdings 1605.T Japan Energy 18 ¥ 937,000 1,230,000 31
Mazda Motor 7261.T Japan Consumer Cyclicals 9 ¥ 779 900 16
Eisai 4523.T Japan Healthcare 15 ¥ 6,090 6,800 12
Sumitomo Realty & Development 8830.T Japan Financials 15 ¥ 3,810 4,122 8

Asia (ex-Japan)
High Tech Computer 2498.TW Taiwan Information Technology 11 NT$ 821.00 1,157.00 41
ProMOS Technologies 5387.TWO Taiwan Information Technology 2 NT$ 13.60 19.00 40
China Vanke (A) 000002.SZ China Financials 3 Rmb 7.11 9.81 38
Hong Kong Exchanges 0388.HK Hong Kong Financials 8 HK$ 58.10 80.00 38
Kweichow Moutai 600519.SS China Consumer Staples 6 Rmb 47.40 58.00 22
Huaneng Power International 0902.HK China Utilities 9 HK$ 5.84 7.10 22
DSME (GDR) 4266q.L South Korea Industrials 6 USD 67.11 81.00 21
GS Holdings 078930.KS South Korea Energy 3 W 31,700.00 36,900.00 16
Bank of East Asia 0023.HK Hong Kong Financials 7 HK$ 37.90 42.00 11
Samsung Electronics 005930.KS South Korea Information Technology 100 W 650,000.00 715,000.00 10

(a) All stocks are rated Buy

Source: Compustat, Lionshares via FactSet, Goldman Sachs Research.

2 Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research


United States Portfolio Strategy

Foreign stocks enhanced returns in 2005 but not in 2006


The independent decision of so many US large-cap mutual fund managers to raise
their international stock allocation has proven to be a wise strategic move given
that the US market has lagged its global peers in recent years (see Exhibit 3).

Exhibit 3: International equity market returns


as of October 13, 2006
Total Return
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 YTD
Asia (ex-Japan) (3.8) (8.3) 47.0 17.7 23.2 15.9
MSCI World ex-USA (16.0) (25.2) 21.1 13.2 29.2 11.7
United States (11.9) (22.1) 28.7 10.9 4.9 11.0
Europe (18.6) (33.5) 11.4 6.5 21.6 10.7
Canada (20.0) (10.8) 53.2 22.8 27.5 8.6
Japan (23.5) (18.6) 24.5 7.6 40.2 2.6

Source: Compustat, Goldman Sachs Research.

A positive correlation existed in 2005 between US large-cap core mutual fund


returns and the percentage of foreign equity investments in a portfolio. However,
this correlation appears to have broken down in 2006 (see Exhibit 4).
International stocks returns, as measured by the MSCI World ex-US index, tracked
closely with returns in the United States through 2004. In 2005, foreign markets
significantly outperformed the S&P 500, 29% vs. 5%. US large-cap Core mutual fund
returns and foreign stock holdings as a percentage of total equity assets exhibited a
positive correlation of 0.34 in 2005.

Global equity returns have varied widely YTD in 2006, with Asia (ex-Japan) up 16% and
Japan returning 3%. This range explains the breakdown in the correlation between US
large-cap core mutual fund returns and the percentage of their portfolio allocated to
foreign equities. Based on 2006 YTD performance, the correlation equals negative 0.28.

Exhibit 4: Correlation of Large-Cap Core Foreign Holdings and Total Return


as of October 13, 2006
2005 2006 YTD
14 16

12 14
2
R = 0.115 12
10
10
Total Return (%)

Total Return (%)

8
8 2
6 R = 0.0779
Higher % invested abroad 6
4 correlated with higher return Correlation has reversed in
4
2006 YTD
2 2
0 0

(2) Correlation = 0.34 (2) Correlation = (0.28)


(4) (4)
0 10 20 30 40 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Foreign Holdings as % of Total Assets Foreign Holdings as % of Total Assets

Source: Compustat, Lionshares via FactSet, Goldman Sachs Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 3


Portfolio Strategy United States

US mutual funds buy European, but avoid Asian stocks


The vast majority of US large-cap mutual funds foreign holdings are concentrated
in Europe and North America (outside the US). Holdings in these markets account for
4.7% and 2.4%, respectively, of total equity assets (combined 84% share of the total
foreign stock allocation).

Stocks in Japan and Asia (outside of Japan) on a combined basis account for just
0.9% of total equity assets of the average US large-cap mutual fund. Separately,
Japanese stocks account for 0.4% of total equity assts and 5% of total foreign stock
holdings. Asian equities outside of Japan account for 0.5% of total equity assts, or 6% of
total foreign stock holdings.

US large-cap Value managers, in particular, tend to avoid the Asian markets and
focus almost entirely within the Western Hemisphere.

US large-cap Growth managers have six times as much capital allocated to Europe
than Asia Ex-Japan (4.7% vs. 0.8%), with Japanese stock holdings accounting for
an extremely modest 0.4% allocation. GDP growth in Asia ex-Japan has outpaced the
US and Europe for the past five years, and Goldman Sachs Economics expects this trend
to continue through 2007. We expect Growth managers will increase their focus on the
Asian markets as sustained economic expansion creates new investment opportunities.

Exhibit 5: Mutual fund holdings by region


as of October 13, 2006

Holdings by Region
N. America Asia
USA Europe Japan Other (a)
(ex-USA) (ex-Japan)
Large-Cap Core 92.0% 4.3% 2.3 0.7% 0.4% 0.2%

Large-Cap Growth 90.7 4.7 2.6 0.8 0.4 0.8

Large-Cap Value 92.0 5.2 2.2 0.0 0.4 0.2

Average 91.6% 4.7% 2.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4%

Equity Total Return (2005) 4.9% 21.6% 27.5% 23.2% 40.2% 32.6%

Equity Total Return (2006 YTD) 11.0 10.7 8.6 15.9 2.6 15.5

Asian stocks (including Japan) account for


less than 1% of US large-cap mutual fund assets.

(a) Other includes Australia, South America, Africa and the Middle East.

Source: Compustat, Lionshares via FactSet, Goldman Sachs Research.

4 Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research


United States Portfolio Strategy

Foreign stocks most commonly owned by US large-cap funds


Exhibit 6 lists the foreign stocks most commonly owned by the 90 US mutual funds
in the Lipper large-cap Core, Growth, and Value style benchmarks. For example, 26
of the 90 large-cap funds owned shares of Nokia (NOK, Neutral) based on the most
recent filings (10 Core, 7 Growth and 9 Value funds).

Exhibit 6: Foreign stocks with highest number of US large-cap mutual fund investors (of 90 Lipper benchmark funds)
as of October 13, 2006
No. of US
Equity Local Currency Large-Cap
Cap Price Total Mutual Fund
Company Ticker Rating Country Sector (USD bil) Currency 13-Oct Return YTD Investors

Europe
Nokia Corp (ADR) NOK Neutral Finland Information Technology 80 USD 20.20 12 % 26
Roche Hldgs Ag 7110388 Buy Switzerland Health Care 122 SwF 221.50 14 18
Alcon Inc ACL NC Switzerland Health Care 34 USD 111.12 (13) 14
Novartis Ag (ADR) NVS Neutral Switzerland Health Care 136 USD 57.09 10 12
BP Plc (ADR) BP Neutral United Kingdom Energy 212 USD 65.97 5 10
Diageo Plc (ADR) DEO Neutral United Kingdom Consumer Staples 49 USD 71.40 27 9
TOTAL Sa (ADR) TOT Neutral France Energy 151 USD 65.72 7 9
Nestle Sa 7123870 Neutral Switzerland Consumer Staples 139 SwF 436.75 14 8
Glaxosmithkline Plc (ADR) GSK Neutral United Kingdom Health Care 153 USD 54.00 10 8
SAP AG (ADR) SAP Buy Germany Information Technology 63 USD 51.68 15 8

North America (ex-USA, Bermuda, Cayman Islands)


America Movil Sa De Cv (ADR) AMX NC Mexico Telecommunication Services 76 USD 42.10 45 % 11
Suncor Energy Inc SU Buy Canada Energy 33 USD 72.50 15 11
Research In Motion Ltd RIMM Buy Canada Information Technology 21 USD 113.84 72 8
Encana Corp ECA Neutral Canada Energy 37 USD 45.90 2 7
Miramar Mining Corp MNG NC Canada Materials 1 USD 4.26 70 7
IPSCO Inc IPS NC Canada Materials 4 USD 89.85 9 6
Glamis Gold Ltd GLG NC Canada Materials 6 USD 37.94 38 5
Ensign Energy Services Inc *ESI NC Canada Energy 2 USD 17.68 (24) 5
Barrick Gold Corp ABX Buy Canada Materials 26 USD 29.79 7 4
Canadian Natural Resources CNQ Buy Canada Energy 25 USD 46.72 (5) 4

Japan
Toyota Motor Corp (ADR) TM Neutral Japan Consumer Discretionary 186 USD 116.20 11 % 5
Sumitomo Mitsui Fg 8316 NC Japan Financials 81 ¥ 1,240,000.00 (1) 3
Mizuho Finl Gp 8411 Buy Japan Financials 92 ¥ 896,000.00 (4) 3
Honda Motor Ltd -Am Shares HMC Neutral Japan Consumer Discretionary 63 USD 34.68 21 3
Nissan Motor Co 7201 Buy Japan Consumer Discretionary 53 ¥ 1,411.00 21 2
Canon Inc 7751 Buy Japan Information Technology 74 ¥ 6,440.00 41 2
Mitsubishi Corp 8058 Neutral Japan Industrials 29 ¥ 2,160.00 (16) 2
Mitsubishi Estate 8802 Buy Japan Financials 32 ¥ 2,805.00 15 2
Mitsubishi Ufj Finl Gp (ADR) MTU Neutral Japan Financials 122 USD 12.70 (7) 2
Kirin Brewery Co 2503 Neutral Japan Consumer Staples 13 ¥ 1,572.00 15 1

Asia (ex-Japan)
Flextronics International FLEX Buy Singapore Information Technology 7 USD 13.19 26 % 5
Infosys Technologies (ADR) INFY Neutral India Information Technology 27 USD 52.03 30 4
Samsung Electronic 6771720 Buy South Korea Information Technology 98 W 644,000.00 (2) 4
Tata Steel Ltd 6101156 NC India Materials 7 Rs 511.30 38 3
Bhp Billiton Ltd 6144690 Neutral Australia Materials 67 A$ 26.50 19 3
China Merchant Hld 6416139 NR Hong Kong Industrials 7 USD 22.75 38 3
Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) TSM NC Taiwan Information Technology 50 USD 10.30 11 3
Housing Devel Fin 6171900 NC India Financials 8 Rs 1,532.55 29 2
Bharti Airtel Ltd 6442327 NC India Telecommunication Services 19 Rs 477.60 38 2
Satyam Computr Svc Ltd (ADR) SAY Buy India Information Technology 7 USD 43.48 19 2

Source: Compustat, Lionshares via FactSet, Goldman Sachs Research

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 5


Portfolio Strategy United States

Appendix: Amount of foreign stock allocation varies by sector


Foreign stocks typically represent between 5% and 15% of the holdings of each
sector in a US large-cap mutual fund. Exhibit 7 identifies how US fund managers
currently split their domestic/international stock exposure by sector.

US large-cap Core managers prefer foreign Industrials and Materials stocks relative
to domestic companies. Managers seek leverage to the global economy through foreign
cyclicals. US Financials, which account for 21% of total US large-cap Core fund assets,
have minimal international exposure with just 4% of Financials holdings in foreign stocks
and 96% domestic. We are not surprised by the lack of investment in foreign Financials,
given that large US-based Financials such as Morgan Stanley (MS, Buy) and Citigroup
(C, Neutral) generate a significant amount of their profits from international operations.

US large-cap Growth funds are highly exposed to foreign Telecom Services, Health
Care and Materials stocks. Foreign stocks represent 49% of Growth funds’ Telecom
holdings, but the sector only accounts for 1% of total portfolio assets. Growth managers
invest an average of 15% of their Health Care holdings in foreign stocks, a sector that
accounts for 17% of total equity assets in the typical Growth fund portfolios. Four of the
ten most commonly owned foreign stocks by Growth managers are Pharmaceutical
companies, such as Roche Holdings (ROG.VX, Buy) and Novartis (NOVN.VX, Neutral).

US large-cap Value fund are heavily exposed to foreign Energy companies. The
most commonly owned companies are such large-cap Energy bellwethers as British
Petroleum (BP, Neutral), Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa, Buy) and TOTAL (TOTF.PA,
Neutral). Similar to Core funds, Value funds seem to shy away from foreign Financials
and Consumer Discretionary stocks.

6 Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research


United States Portfolio Strategy

Exhibit 7: How US large-cap mutual fund invest abroad by sector


as of October 13, 2006

Large-Cap Core Funds


Portfolio Foreign US
Weight Stocks Stocks
Materials 3% 14 % 86 %
Industrials 12 12 88
Telecom
Services
3 10 90
Health Care 12 8 92 16% of Large-Cap Core Fund
Assets is invested in
Info Tech 16 8 92
Information Technology.
Utilities 1 8 92
Foreign Stocks represent 8%
Energy 10 7 93 of this allocation, with 92% in
Cons domestic stocks.
Staples
9 6 94
Financials 21 4 96
Cons Disc 13 4 96
Total 100 %

Large-Cap Growth Funds Large-Cap Value Funds


Portfolio Foreign US Portfolio Foreign US
Weight Stocks Stocks Weight Stocks Stocks
Telecom
Services
1% 49 % 51 % Energy 11 % 21 % 79 %
Materials 3 22 78 Health Care 11 12 88
Health Care 17 15 85 Info Tech 8 11 89
Info Tech 25 10 90 Materials 5 9 91
Energy 9 10 90 Industrials 10 8 92
Cons
Cons Disc 14 6 94 Staples
9 8 92
Telecom
Industrials 11 2 98 Services
6 6 94
Financials 13 2 98 Cons Disc 10 3 97
Cons
Staples
7 2 98 Financials 27 2 98
Utilities 0 0 100 Utilities 4 1 99
Total 100 % Total 100 %

Source: Compustat, Lionshares via FactSet, Goldman Sachs Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 7


Portfolio Strategy United States

Price target methodology and risks


For methodology and risks associated with price targets mentioned, please refer to the
analyst’s previously published research.

Reg AC
I, David J. Kostin, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately
reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their
securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or
indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

8 Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research


United States Portfolio Strategy

Disclosures

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 9


Portfolio Strategy United States

10 Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research


United States Portfolio Strategy

Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s)


Compendium report: please see disclosures at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html

Company-specific regulatory disclosures


Compendium report: please see disclosures at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html

Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships


Goldman Sachs Investment Research global coverage universe
Rating Distribution Investment Banking Relationships

Buy Hold Sell Buy Hold Sell


Global 27% 59% 14% 53% 46% 45%

As of October 1, 2006, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research had investment ratings on 2,245 equity securities. Prior
to June 26, 2006, Goldman Sachs utilized a relative rating system of Outperform, In-Line and Underperform, which, for the
purposes of the above disclosure required by NASD/NYSE rules, equated to Buy, Hold and Sell. As of June 26, 2006,
Goldman Sachs assigns stocks as Buys and Sells on various regional Investment Lists; stocks not so assigned are deemed
Neutral. Such assignments equate to Buy, Hold and Sell for the purposes of the above disclosure. See 'Ratings, Coverage
groups and views and related definitions' below.

Price target and rating history chart(s)


Compendium report: please see disclosures at http://www.gs.com/research.hedge.html

Regulatory disclosures

Disclosures required by United States laws and regulations


See company-specific regulatory disclosures above for any of the following disclosures required as to companies referred to in this report: manager
or co-manager in a pending transaction; 1% or other ownership; compensation for certain services; types of client relationships; managed/co-
managed public offerings in prior periods; directorships; market making and/or specialist role.
The following are additional required disclosures: Ownership and material conflicts of interest: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts,
professionals reporting to analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the analyst's area of
coverage. Analyst compensation: Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Goldman Sachs, which includes investment banking
revenues. Analyst as officer or director: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts or members of their
households from serving as an officer, director, advisory board member or employee of any company in the analyst's area of coverage.
Distribution of ratings: See the distribution of ratings disclosure above. Price chart: See the price chart, with changes of ratings and price targets
in prior periods, above, or, if electronic format or if with respect to multiple companies which are the subject of this report, on the Goldman Sachs
website at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.

Additional disclosures required under the laws and regulations of jurisdictions other than the United States
The following disclosures are those required by the jurisdiction indicated, except to the extent already made above pursuant to United States laws
and regulations. Australia: This research, and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian
Corporations Act. Canada: Goldman Sachs Canada Inc. has approved of, and agreed to take responsibility for, this research in Canada if and to
the extent it relates to equity securities of Canadian issuers. Analysts may conduct site visits but are prohibited from accepting payment or
reimbursement by the company of travel expenses for such visits. Hong Kong: Further information on the securities of covered companies

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 11


Portfolio Strategy United States

referred to in this research may be obtained on request from Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Japan: See company-specific disclosures as to any
applicable disclosures required by Japanese stock exchanges, the Japanese Securities Dealers Association or the Japanese Securities Finance
Company. Korea: Further information on the subject company or companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs
(Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch. Russia: Research reports distributed in the Russian Federation are not advertising as defined in Russian law, but are
information and analysis not having product promotion as their main purpose and do not provide appraisal within the meaning of the Russian Law
on Appraisal. Singapore: Further information on the covered companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs
(Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W). United Kingdom: Persons who would be categorized as private customers in the United
Kingdom, as such term is defined in the rules of the Financial Services Authority, should read this research in conjunction with prior Goldman
Sachs research on the covered companies referred to herein and should refer to the risk warnings that have been sent to them by Goldman Sachs
International. A copy of these risks warnings, and a glossary of certain financial terms used in this report, are available from Goldman Sachs
International on request.
European Union: Disclosure information in relation to Article 4 (1) (d) and Article 6 (2) of the European Commission Directive 2003/126/EC is
available at http://www.gs.com/client_services/global_investment_research/europeanpolicy.html
Ratings, coverage groups and views and related definitions
Buy (B), Neutral (N), Sell (S) – Analysts recommend stocks as Buys or Sells for inclusion on various regional Investment Lists. Being assigned a
Buy or Sell on an Investment List is determined by a stock’s return potential relative to its coverage group as described below. Any stock not
assigned as a Buy or a Sell on an Investment List is deemed Neutral. Each regional Investment Review Committee manages various regional
Investment Lists to a global guideline of 25%-35% of stocks as Buy and 10%-15% of stocks as Sell; however, the distribution of Buys and Sells in
any particular coverage group may vary as determined by the regional Investment Review Committee. Regional Conviction Buy and Sell lists
represent investment recommendations focused on either the size of the potential return or the likelihood of the realization of the return.
Return potential represents the price differential between the current share price and the price target expected during the time horizon associated
with the price target. Price targets are required for all covered stocks. The return potential, price target and associated time horizon are stated in
each report adding or reiterating an Investment List membership.
Coverage groups and views: A list of all stocks in each coverage group is available by primary analyst, stock and coverage group at
http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. The analyst assigns one of the following coverage views which represents the analyst’s investment
outlook on the coverage group relative to the group’s historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Attractive (A). The investment outlook over the
following 12 months is favorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Neutral (N). The investment outlook
over the following 12 months is neutral relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Cautious (C). The investment
outlook over the following 12 months is unfavorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation.
Not Rated (NR). The investment rating and target price, if any, have been removed pursuant to Goldman Sachs policy when Goldman Sachs is
acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances. Rating Suspended
(RS). Goldman Sachs Research has suspended the investment rating and price target, if any, for this stock, because there is not a sufficient
fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for
this stock and should not be relied upon. Coverage Suspended (CS). Goldman Sachs has suspended coverage of this company. Not Covered
(NC). Goldman Sachs does not cover this company. Not Available or Not Applicable (NA). The information is not available for display or is not
applicable. Not Meaningful (NM). The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.
Ratings, coverage views and related definitions prior to June 26, 2006
Our rating system requires that analysts rank order the stocks in their coverage groups and assign one of three investment ratings (see definitions
below) within a ratings distribution guideline of no more than 25% of the stocks should be rated Outperform and no fewer than 10% rated
Underperform. The analyst assigns one of three coverage views (see definitions below), which represents the analyst’s investment outlook on the
coverage group relative to the group’s historical fundamentals and valuation. Each coverage group, listing all stocks covered in that group, is
available by primary analyst, stock and coverage group at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.
Definitions
Outperform (OP). We expect this stock to outperform the median total return for the analyst's coverage universe over the next 12 months. In-Line
(IL). We expect this stock to perform in line with the median total return for the analyst's coverage universe over the next 12 months.
Underperform (U). We expect this stock to underperform the median total return for the analyst's coverage universe over the next 12 months
Coverage views: Attractive (A). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is favorable relative to the coverage group's historical
fundamentals and/or valuation. Neutral (N). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is neutral relative to the coverage group's
historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Cautious (C). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is unfavorable relative to the
coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation.
Current Investment List (CIL). We expect stocks on this list to provide an absolute total return of approximately 15%-20% over the next 12
months. We only assign this designation to stocks rated Outperform. We require a 12-month price target for stocks with this designation. Each
stock on the CIL will automatically come off the list after 90 days unless renewed by the covering analyst and the relevant Regional Investment
Review Committee.
Global product; distributing entities
The Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs produces and distributes research products for clients of Goldman Sachs, and
pursuant to certain contractual arrangements, on a global basis. Analysts based in Goldman Sachs offices around the world produce equity
research on industries and companies, and research on macroeconomics, currencies, commodities and portfolio strategy.
This research is disseminated in Australia by Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty Ltd (ABN 21 006 797 897) on behalf of Goldman Sachs; in Canada by
Goldman Sachs Canada Inc. regarding Canadian equities and by Goldman Sachs & Co. (all other research); in Germany by Goldman Sachs & Co.
oHG; in Hong Kong by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.; in Japan by Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd; in the Republic of Korea by Goldman Sachs
(Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch; in New Zealand by Goldman Sachs JBWere (NZ) Limited on behalf of Goldman Sachs; in Singapore by Goldman
Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W); and in the United States of America by Goldman, Sachs & Co. Goldman Sachs
International has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the United Kingdom and European Union.

12 Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research


United States Portfolio Strategy

European Union: Goldman Sachs International, authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority, has approved this research in
connection with its distribution in the European Union and United Kingdom; Goldman, Sachs & Co. oHG, regulated by the Bundesanstalt für
Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, may also be distributing research in Germany

General disclosures in addition to specific disclosures required by certain jurisdictions


This research is for our clients only. Other than disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs, this research is based on current public information that we
consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. We seek to update our research as
appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Other than some industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large
majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst’s judgment.
Goldman Sachs conducts a global full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management, and brokerage business. We have
investment banking and other business relationships with a substantial percentage of the companies covered by our Global Investment Research
Division.
Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients and our
proprietary trading desks that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Our asset management area, our
proprietary trading desks and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views
expressed in this research.
We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as
principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives (including options and warrants) thereof of covered companies referred to in this research.
This research is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be
illegal. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of
individual clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and,
if appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. The price and value of the investments referred to in this research and the income
from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital
may occur. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and other derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable
for all investors. Current options disclosure documents are available from Goldman Sachs sales representatives or at
http://theocc.com/publications/risks/riskstoc.pdf. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income
derived from, certain investments.
Our research is disseminated primarily electronically, and, in some cases, in printed form. Electronic research is simultaneously available to all
clients.
Disclosure information is also available at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html or from Research Compliance, One New York Plaza, New York,
NY 10004.
Copyright 2006 The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior
written consent of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 13

Das könnte Ihnen auch gefallen