Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Ins&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate
Massiveenblocsites
Twomassiveenblocsitesthathavebeenputupforsalewillclosewithinamonthstime.233unitFaberGardenin
UpperThomson,believedtobeitsfirstenblocattemptandpresumablyencouragedbythesaleofnearbyThomson
Grandwhichachievedupto$1,564psf,sitsonasprawling544,738sqftoffreeholdlandandownersareaskingfor
$830m.Withagrossplotratioof1.6andanestimateddevelopmentchargeof$31.2m,thefinalpricetagis$988psf
ppr.Ontheotherhand,528unitLagunaParkinMarineParadehasasiteareaof677,493sqftandagenerousplot
ratioof2.8.Reservepriceoftheprojectis$1.25b,marginallylowerthanthepreviousaskingpriceof$1.3binJuly
2011. An estimated development charge of $560m is payable to top up the 99year sites lease. Overall, Laguna
Parksfinalpricetagis$954psfppr.ThelasttimesuchamassivesiteattemptedanenblocsalewasthatofPark
WestCondoinSeptember2011.Itwasnotsuccessful.
There are at least 10 en bloc sites currently out in the market for developers to pick and choose. The last one
successfullysoldwasHongLeongGardensinSeptember2011,whichwaszonedresidentialwithcommercialonfirst
storey.Atasalepriceof$171m,itwasthebiggestenblocsalethisyear.Comparedtothepeakoftheenbloccycle
in2007wheredealsabove$1bweresuccessful,todaysenblocmarketismuchmoremutedwithmanyunsuccessful
attempts, an evidence of a mismatch in price expectations between existing owners and developers. We take a
closerlookatpropertypricesnearFaberGardeninthisreport.
FaberGardensatUpperThomson
Source:URA
Co.RegNo:198700034E
MICA(P):090/11/2009
SEEAPPENDIXIFORIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS
ENBLOC
TheRealDeals3November2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com
PropertypricesatUpperThomson
1,600
ThomsonGrand(99yr,TOP2015)
TheGardensatBishan(99yr,TOP2004)
BishanParkCondo(99yrTOP1994)
FaberGardenCondo(FH,TOP1984)
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
01Jan00
07Sep01
15May03
19Jan05
26Sep06
02Jun08
07Feb10
Source:URA
15Oct11
ProjectsintheSinMingareasitonfairlylargelandplotswith233to756residentialunits.FaberGarden
wasdevelopedbyUOL,BishanParkCondobyHongLeongandTheGardensatBishanbyGuocoland.The
latest Thomson Grand is developed by Hong Kongs property giant Cheung Kong. Resale prices of Bishan
Park Condo, completed in 1994 average at $790 psf while units at The Gardens at Bishan, completed in
2004aresellingataveragepriceof$935psf.Medianrentalforcondounitsintheareais$3.22psfpmfor
themonthofSeptember2011,implyingagrossrentalyieldof4.9%and4.1%forBishanParkCondoand
The Gardens at Bishan, respectively. The newly launched Thomson Grand is achieving $1,305 psf on
average,140outofthetotal361unitshavebeensoldsinceitslaunchinJuly2011.
NonlandedrentaldatainSinMingWalk,SinMingAvenue
Sep2011
Aug2011
Jul2011
Jun2011
May2011
Apr2011
Mar2011
Feb2011
Jan2011
Minimum
2.06
2.1
2.51
2.18
2.41
2
2.2
2.11
1.96
Source:URA
Change%
1.9%
16.3%
15.1%
9.5%
20.5%
9.1%
4.3%
7.7%
Median
3.22
3.16
3.19
2.79
3.39
3.02
3.16
2.86
2.67
Change%
1.9%
0.9%
14.3%
17.7%
12.3%
4.4%
10.5%
7.1%
Maximum
3.93
4.24
4.09
3.57
3.57
3.57
3.57
3.57
3.57
Change%
7.3%
3.7%
14.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Selectedenblocsitescurrentlyoutforsale
Tender
close
01Nov
01Nov
10Nov
14Nov
16Nov
22Nov
23Nov
01Dec
06Dec
08Dec
Project
CavenaghGardens
StPatrick'sGarden
PacificMansion
CrystalTower
DragonMansion
FaberGarden
NewtonLodge
HenryPark
LagunaPark
GreenLodge
Tenure
Freehold
Freehold
Freehold
Freehold
Freehold
Freehold
Freehold
Freehold
99yr
Freehold
Source:KimEng
TOP
1975
1981
1976
1982
1984
1989
1970
1993
1984
GFA
sqft
296,271
192,583
493,227
96,771
112,959
871,581
29,973
139,720
1,896,980
225,041
Reserve
price
$m
480500
188
990
155
150156
830
40
170180
1,250
195
Dev.
Charge
$m
31.2
2.5
560.0
Total
price
$m
480500
188
990
155
150156
861.2
42.5
170180
1,810
195
Price
$psfppr
16201688
976
2,007
1,602
1,3401,392
988
1,418
1,2161,287
954
867
MARKETSNAPSHOT
TheRealDeals3November2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com
UpcomingVVIPLaunches
TheHillier(District23)
A development nestled in Hilllview Avenue, a
private residential enclave overlooking Bukit
Timah Hill and the Bukit Timah Nature Reserve.
Features SOHOconcept residences sited above a
commercialpodium.
Recentresaletransactions
Project
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
BishanParkCondo
BishanParkCondo
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
BishanParkCondo
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
TheGardensAtBishan
BishanParkCondo
Tenure
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
99yr
Contract
month
Oct11
Oct11
Sep11
Sep11
Sep11
Sep11
Sep11
Sep11
Sep11
Sep11
Sep11
Sep11
Aug11
Aug11
Aug11
Aug11
Aug11
Jul11
Jul11
Jul11
Jul11
Jun11
Price
($psf)
963
967
937
997
937
851
921
968
975
778
802
896
963
792
940
929
678
868
682
907
726
763
Source:URA
PropertyStocks
Name
CapitaLand
CityDev
HoBee
HPL
KepLand
SCGlobal
SingLand
UOL
Wheelock
WingTai
Price
2.67
10.26
1.24
2.05
2.67
1.115
5.90
4.40
1.625
1.245
RNAV
3.97
13.27
2.76
4.41
5.25
4.74
10.42
N.A.
N.A.
3.03
Disc/
Prem
to
RNAV
33%
23%
55%
54%
49%
76%
43%
N.A.
N.A.
59%
N.A.=NoCoverage*Asatlatestreported
Disc/
Premto
NTA/share* NTA/share
3.18
16%
7.18
43%
2.13
42%
2.63
22%
2.72
2%
1.54
28%
10.57
44%
6.39
31%
2.32
30%
2.25
45%
PropertyPriceIndices
Index
SRPIOverall(Sep11)
RESIComposite(2Q11)
URAPPI(3Q11)
HDBResale(3Q11)
Change
+0.1%
0.5
+1.3%
+3.8%
Level
166.2
4.5
205.7
187.2
GovernmentLandSales(GLS)
RecentlyAwardedSites
Punggol Field / Punggol Walk (48.8k sqm, 550 units)
Awarded to Capital Development / ZACD for $169.6m
($323psfppr)
Upper Serangoon Crescent / Upper Serangoon Road
(86.2ksqm,860units)AwardedtoAllgreenfor$270.3m
($291.4psfppr)
Jalan Loyang Besar / Pasir Ris Rise (36.3k sqm, 355
units) Awarded to Hoi Hup, Sunway and Straits
Constructionfor$141m($361psfppr)
Pasir Ris Drive 3 / Pasir Ris Link, EC (39.0k sqm, 390
units)AwardedtoHoLee/UnitedEngineersfor$122m
($291psfppr)
Flora Drive (41.9k sqm, 415 units) Awarded to Koh
Brothersfor$163m($361.2psfppr)
YishunCentral7/CanberraDrive,EC(67.9ksqm,725
units) Awarded to MCC Land for $213.8m ($292.6 psf
ppr)
ConfirmedList(RecentlyOpenforTender)
Punggol Central / Edgedale Plains (60.8k sqm, 610
units)Tenderclosingon3November
YishunAve1/MiltoniaClose(35.5ksqm,355units)
Tenderclosingon15November
Chestnut Ave (39.3k sqm, 380 units) Tender closing
on24November
AlexandraRoad(48.8ksqm,545units)Tenderclosing
on6December
Chestnut Ave / Almond Ave (12.9k sqm, 35 landed
units)Tenderclosingon8December
Punggol Central / Punggol Place (54.1k sqm, 540
units)Tenderclosingon15December
ReserveList(RecentlyOpenforTender)
JalanJurongKechil(14.2ksqm,240units)
BuangkokDr/SengkangCentral(55ksqm,495units)
TanahMerahKechilRd(39.2ksqm,470units)
StirlingRoadA(44.5ksqm,445units)
StirlingRoadB(44.1sqm,445units)
EliasRd/PasirRisDr3(32.7ksqm,295units)
HillviewAve(35.4ksqm,405units)
SengkangSquare(64.4ksqm,710units)
Upper Serangoon View/ Upper Serangoon Road, EC
(43.3ksqm,420units)
Source:HDB,URA
TheRealDeals3November2011
MARKETSNAPSHOT
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com
PrimaryMarket
SecondaryMarket
Take
up
rate
(%)
Units
sold
(Sep)
Median
($psf)
49
94.2
11
1,679
22.0
2,326
BuckleyClassique
64
50
78.1
Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang(1214)
2,086
138
14
12
29
1,191
1,165
1,091
1,110
Total
no.of
units
No.of
units
soldto
date
City&Southwest(18)
JoolSuites
52
Orchard/Tanglin/Holland(910)
Hijauan
41
District
Newton/BukitTimah/Clementi(11+21)
$psf
Sep11
MoM%
Change
1,470
1,727
1,229
970
1,023
778
918
755
739
1,439
1,713
1,225
989
1,054
786
924
756
727
2.1
0.8
0.3
1.9
2.9
1.0
0.7
0.2
1.7
Euhabitat
748
Suites28
64
Vacanza@East
473
Viento
48
EastCoast(1516)
FlamingoValley
393
ParcElegance
157
TheMeyerise
239
WaterfrontIsle
561
Uber388
95
Vibes@EastCoast
117
Changi/PasirRis(1718)
ArcatTampines
574
Seastrand
473
Waterview
696
Serangoon/Thomson(1920)
560
26
361
42
233
294
563
40.6
62.2
80.9
233
36
11
734
932
854
ATreasureTrove
882
683
77.4
683
915
Top5ResaleTransactionsby$psf
AustvilleResidences
Boathouse
Residences
Bliss@Kovan
540
341
63.1
39
710
Project
CentroResidences
Terrasse
TheLuxurie
TheMinton
ThomsonGrand
RiverparcResidence
Suites@PayaLebar
West(2224)
BlossomResidences
(EC)
North(2528)
TheCanopy
TheMiltonia
Residences
Woodhaven
493
74.9
40.6
76.3
87.5
City&Southwest
Orchard/Tanglin/Holland
Newton/BukitTimah/Clementi
Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang
EastCoast
Changi/PasirRis
Serangoon/Thomson
West
North
$psf
Aug11
183
143
108
489
49
116
46.6
91.1
45.2
87.2
51.6
99.1
10
8
108
9
8
17
1,273
1,198
1,789
1,153
1,391
1,442
276
56.0
86
924
140
32
22.9
32
1,391
329
414
622
1,145
361
504
99
231
308
216
725
140
483
27
70.2
74.4
34.7
63.3
38.8
95.8
27.3
13
18
70
27
18
90
16
1,514
1,008
1,042
894
1,264
685
1,345
602
413
68.6
52
706
406
377
92.9
14
664
410
302
73.7
16
869
337
222
65.9
17
1,049
$psfpm
Aug11
City&Southwest
Orchard/Tanglin/Holland
5.3
4.4
4.3
3.1
4.6
4.4
3.9
3.1
Newton/BukitTimah/Clementi
3.3
3.2
3.5
3.4
Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang
3.1
3.8
3.1
3.8
EastCoast
3.1
3.6
3.2
3.7
Changi/PasirRis
2.8
4.3
2.8
4.2
Serangoon/Thomson
2.7
3.5
2.9
3.8
West
2.9
4.6
2.8
4.5
North
2.5
4.1
2.6
4.3
Source:URA
ParkviewEclat
ArdmorePark
PatersonSuites
St.ThomasSuites
St.RegisResidences
Tenure
District
$psf
Freehold
Freehold
Freehold
Freehold
999yrfr1995
10
10
9
9
10
3,513
3,085
3,000
2,905
2,776
Source:URA
Bottom5ResaleTransactionsby$psf
Project
LakesideTower
SembawangCottage
LakesideApartments
TheSunflower
EliasGreen
Source:URA
RentalMarket
District
Source:URA
Source:URA
Tenure
District
$psf
99yrfr1975
Freehold
99yrfr1977
Freehold
99yrfr1991
22
27
22
14
18
454
514
530
530
584
DEVELOPERSLANDBANK
Developer
District
06
09
10
10
11
17
18
18
18
18
19
19
23
23
Sentosa
CityDev
KepLand
CapitaLand
HoBee
UOL
Allgreen
Wheelock
TheRealDeals3November2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com
Landbank
SouthBeach(BeachRoad)
Futura(LeonieRoad)
BoulevardHotel(CuscadenRoad)
LuckyTower(GrangeRoad)
BuckleyClassique(BuckleyRoad)
HedgesPark(FloraRoad)
NVResidences(PasirRis)
PasirRisGrove,parcel3+stateland(PasirRis)
PasirRisDrive8,parcels4+5(PasirRis)
Tampines/UppChangiRdNorth
H2OResidences(SengkangWestAve)
BartleyRoadGLS(BartleyRoad)
ChoaChukangGLS(EC)(ChoaChuKangDrive)
SegarRoadGLS(EC)(SegarRoad)
ResidencesatW(SentosaCove)
TotalUnsoldUnits
MarinaBaySuites(MarinaBay)
Keppel&GETowerssite(TanjongPagar)
ReflectionsatKeppelBay(KeppelBay)
KeppelBayPlot3(KeppelBay)
KeppelBayPlot4(KeppelBay)
KeppelBayPlot5(KeppelBay)
SengkangGLSsite(SengkangSquare)
TheLakesideResidences(LakesideDrive)
TotalUnsoldUnits
TheInterlace(GillmanHeights)
UrbanResort(CairnhillRd)
Dleedon(FarrerRd)
TheNassim(NassimRd)
MarinePoint(MarineParade)
BedokTownCentreSite(BedokCentral)
BishanGLSsite(BishanStreet14)
YioChuKangsite(YioChuKangRd)
TotalUnsoldUnits
SeascapeatSentosaCove(SentosaCove)
PinnacleatSentosaCove(SentosaCove)
TotalUnsoldUnits
SpottiswoodeResidences(SpottiswoodePark)
BedokReservoir(BedokReservoirRd)
TotalUnsoldUnits
Skysuites@Anson(EnggorStreet)
ProjectatWestCoastRd(WestCoastRoad)
RVResidences(RiverValley)
RiverBay(MarThomaRd)
Riviera38(MarThomaRd)
TheCascadia(BukitTimahRoad)
TotalUnsoldUnits
ScottsSquare(ScottsRoad)
Ardmore3(ArdmorePark)
TotalUnsoldUnits
01
02
04
04
04
04
19
22
03
09
10
10
15
16
20
26
Sentosa
Sentosa
02
16
02
05
09
12
12
21
09
10
Tenure
99
Freehold
Freehold
Freehold
Freehold
99
99
99
99
Freehold
99
99
99
99
99
99
Freehold
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
Freehold
99
Freehold
Freehold
99
99
Freehold
99
99
Freehold
99
99
Freehold
999
999
999
Freehold
Freehold
Freehold
Unsold
Units
119
122
203
178
22
181
36
752
1,517
605
153
560
490
237
207
5,381
77
620
313
307
234
94
471
24
2,140
351
40
1,280
55
150
469
650
140
3,135
112
357
469
35
640
675
194
80
248
147
102
25
796
91
84
175
DEVELOPERSLANDBANK(contd)
Developer
Guocoland
BtSembawang
FrasersCentrepoint
WingTai
MCLLand
SCGlobal
District
02
10
26
09
09
09
09
15
16
16
18
18
19
19
19
27
03
09
09
10
10
11
23
10
15
17
19
9
9
9
10
Sentosa
Source:HDB,URA
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com
Landbank
Tenure
TanjongPagarGLSwhitesite(PeckSeah/ChoonGuan)
99
LeedonResidence(LeedonHeights)
99
TheWaterline(YioChuKangRd)
Freehold
TotalUnsoldUnits
TheVermontonCairnhill(CairnhillRd)
Freehold
PatersonSuites(PatersonRd)
Freehold
StThomasWalk(StThomasWalk)
Freehold
TotalUnsoldUnits
StarHubCentre
99
FlamingoValley(SiglapRd)
Freehold
WaterfrontGold(BedokReservoirRd)
99
WaterfrontIsle(BedokReservoirRd)
99
Seastrand(PasirRisDrive3)
99
PasirRisGLSsite(FloraDrive)
99
BoathouseResidences(UpperSerangoonRoad)
99
EsparinaResidences(Sengkang)
99
PunggolGLSmixedsite(PunggolCentral)
99
EightCourtyards(YishunAve2)
99
TotalUnsoldUnits
AscentiaSky(Redhill)
99
HELIOSResidence(CairnhillCircle)
Freehold
BelleVueResidences(OxleyWalk)
Freehold
LeNouvelArdmore(ArdmorePark)
Freehold
Anderson18(ArdmorePark)
Freehold
L'VIV(NewtonRd)
Freehold
ForesqueResidences(PetirRoad)
99
TotalUnsoldUnits
NOBHill(EweBoonRd)
Freehold
CasaNassau(EastCoastRd)
Freehold
PasirRisGLSsite(JalanLoyangBesar)
99
Terrasse(HougangAve2)
99
TotalUnsoldUnits
TheMarq(PatersonHill)
Freehold
Hilltops(CairnhillCircle)
Freehold
MartinNo.38(MartinRd)
Freehold
TheArdmore(ArdmoreRoad)
Freehold
SevenPalms(SentosaCove)
99
TotalUnsoldUnits
GrandTotal
TheRealDeals3November2011
Unsold
Units
500
424
40
964
66
24
221
311
240
220
4
81
215
380
291
1
685
141
2,258
47
64
38
42
157
40
299
687
70
65
580
122
837
37
208
23
50
31
349
18,177
SINGAPOREDISTRICTMAP
TheRealDeals3November2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
BoatQuay,Chinatown,HavelockRoad,MarinaSquare,RafflesPlace,SuntecCity
AnsonRoad,Chinatown,NeilRoad,RafflesPlace,ShentonWay,TanjongPagar
AlexandraRoad,TiongBahru,Queenstown
Keppel,MountFaber,Sentosa,TelokBlangah
BuonaVista,Dover,PasirPanjang,WestCoast
CityHall,HighStreet,NorthBridgeRoad
BeachRoad,BencoolenRoad,Bugis,Rochor
LittleIndia,FarrerPark,SerangoonRoad
Cairnhill,Killiney,LeonieHill,Orchard,Oxley
Balmoral,BukitTimah,GrangeRoad,Holland,OrchardBoulevard,RiverValley,TanglinRoad
Chancery,BukitTimah,DunearnRoad,Newton
Balestier,Moulmein,Novena,ToaPayoh
PotongPasir,Macpherson
Eunos,Geylang,Kembangan,PayaLebar
Katong,MarineParade,Siglap,TanjongRhu
Bayshore,Bedok,ChaiChee
Changi,Loyang,PasirRis
PasirRis,Simei,Tampines
Hougang,Punggol,Sengkang
AngMoKio,Bishan,BraddellRoad,Thomson
Clementi,UpperBukitTimah,HumeAvenue
BoonLay,Jurong,Tuas
BukitBatok,ChoaChuKang,HillviewAvenue,UpperBukitTimah
Kranji,LimChuKang,SungeiGedong,Tengah
Admiralty,Woodlands
Tagore,YioChuKang
Admiralty,Sembawang,Yishun
Seletar,YioChuKang
Source:expats2singapore.com
TheRealDeals
3November2011
APPENDIXI:TERMSFORPROVISIONOFREPORT,DISCLOSURES
AND
DISCLAIMERS
Thisreport,andanyelectronicaccesstoit,isrestrictedtoandintendedonlyforclientsofKimEngResearchPte.Ltd.("KER")ora
relatedentitytoKER(asthecasemaybe)whoareinstitutionalinvestors(forthepurposesofboththeSingaporeSecuritiesand
FuturesAct(SFA)andtheSingaporeFinancialAdvisersAct(FAA))andwhoareallowedaccessthereto(eachan"Authorised
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TheRealDeals
3November2011
Additionalinformationonmentionedsecuritiesisavailableonrequest.
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specificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthereport.
2011 Kim Eng Research Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. Except as specifically permitted, no part of this presentation may be
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StephanieWong
CEO,KimEngResearch