Arab J Geosci DOI 10.

1007/s12517-009-0096-3

ORIGINAL PAPER

Recent evaluation of the assessment seismic hazards for Nuweiba, Gulf of Aqaba
Amr Z. Hamouda

Received: 26 May 2009 / Accepted: 3 September 2009 # Saudi Society for Geosciences 2009

Abstract The Gulf of Aqaba is considered seismically as one of the most active zones of the Dead Sea Transform region. The main shock of the 1995 Gulf of Aqaba earthquake sequence is considered as the largest shock in the (surface wave magnitude Ms=7.2) since the sixteenth century. The present study is a trial to detect the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Nuweiba site. Data used for this study was a combination of both historical and recent instrumental data. Results of the hazard assessment, expressed as in the worst case scenario, reveal that Nuweiba is exposed to the occurrence of a maximum credible earthquake of magnitude mmax e e7:4 0:31, at hypocentral distance of 15.610 km. For structure with the return period of 100 years, with a 90% probability of exceedance, the maximum expected earthquake magnitude (ML) is 5.9 in this lifetime. The possibility of the maximum peak ground acceleration at the Nuweiba site is 0.41 g. Results of the hazard assessment can be used as an input data to assess the seismic risk for site of interest. Keywords Seismic hazard . Probabilistic . Maximum magnitude . Nuweiba . Gulf of Aqaba

Introduction The Gulf of Aqaba represents the southern portion of the Dead Sea fault system, which connects the spreading of the Red Sea seafloor with continental rift propagation. The 180-km-long

A. Z. Hamouda (*) Marine Geology and Geophysics Department, National Institute of Oceanography and FisheriesNIOF, Alexandria, Egypt e-mail: amreu@yahoo.com

structure comprises four sedimentary basins, Dakar, Tiran, Aragonese, and Aqaba Deep. The available considerable geological and geophysical data suggests that the depression of the Gulf of Aqaba has been formed by extensional tectonics (Ben-Avraham 1985; Fig. 1). The tectonic setting of the Gulf of Aqaba is closely related to the Dead Sea Transform (DST) fault region (Cochran 2004, personal communication; Al-Zhoubi et al. 2006). The evolution of the Gulf started with the initiation of the Red Sea rift in Late Oligocene to Early Miocene. The displacement motion along the main fault has been continuous science that time, with an increase in the component of transverse separation along the Dead Sea transform before 5 million years (Joffe and Garfunkel 1987). It is considered seismically as one of the most active zones in the Middle East region (Fig. 2). This region is characterized by abnormal and remarkable activity for a certain period of time followed by a quietly inactive period. The main shock of the 1995 earthquake sequence has been the largest shock (Mw 7.2) in the region since the sixteenth century. Numerous destructive earthquakes have occurred during historical times; many of them are documented in the Bible and Later Roman and various Arabic sources. On the other hand, there was no detected seismic activity inside the gulf for 6 months before mainshock earthquake of November 22, 1995 (Hamouda 2000; Al-Zoubi et al. 2002; Hofstetter 2003; Al-Zoubi et al. 2006). For the present moment, many structure damages related to mainshock earthquake of 1995 can be observed. The Gulf of Aqaba is divided into three distinct tectonics parts (Ben-Avraham 1985). The northern part has a relatively simple bathymetry and the largest basin of the Gulf. It is dominated by the flat-bottomed Aqaba deep, about 50 km long and 38 km wide. At the same time, this part is considered as the shallowest area of the gulf (about 900 m). The central basin (Aragonese deep) is about 35 km

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hazard is the first step in the evaluation of seismic risk, obtained by combining the seismic hazard with the vulnerability factors of buildings. Frequent large earthquakes in remote areas result in high seismic hazard but pose no risk. On the contrary, moderate earthquakes in the densely populated areas entail small hazard but has high risk. This work is an attempt to apply a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for the Nuweiba area. The probabilistic approach of earthquake hazard analysis aims to estimate the likelihood (probability) that any specified level of ground-motion intensity will be attained or exceeded in an arbitrary future time period due to the trigger of earthquakes from potential seismic sources. Economically, Nuweiba is considered as one of the most important cities in Egypt. It is located at longitude 34.67 E and latitude 29.00 N on the western border of the Gulf of Aqaba (Fig. 1). It is characterized by many new constructed buildings as well as the presence of Nuweiba harbor, which is the main Egyptian harbor on the Gulf of Aqaba. Moreover, it has many touristic villages and hotels that are constructed for the aim of tourism servicing.

Seismicity and tectonic settings of the Gulf of Aqaba The tectonic rift system for the northern Red SeaGulf of Aqaba is of particular interest. It is one of two places in the world (the Gulf of CaliforniaImperial Valley is the other one) where a mid-ocean ridge system changes into a transform system and runs into the continent (Ambraseys 2001). Moreover, the overall tectonic system is similar to that of the Gulf of CaliforniaSalton Trough system, and both are similar in shape and dimensions. However, there are two major differences between the two systems. Firstly, the horizontal motion in the Aqaba Gulf is left lateral, whereas the horizontal motion in the Salton Trough region is right lateral. Secondly, the slip rate along the Dead Sea rift is less than 1 cm/year, while along the San Andreas Fault it is about 5 cm/year (Ben-Avraham 1985). This could reflect the higher seismic activity, heat flow, and magmatic activity in the Salton Trough region in comparison with the Gulf of Aqaba region. Several felt historical earthquakes have been reported in Egypt. A total of 58 events were reported to be felt with intensities of VIX during the period 2200 B.C.1900 A.D. Some of these earthquakes are reported with poor information regarding the epicentral area; some have location outside the Egyptian borders (Abdel Fattah et al. 1997). The recent publications of historical earthquakes (Poirier and Taher 1980; Maamoun et al. 1984; Ambraseys et al. 1994) reported that some historical earthquakes occurred in the Aqaba region. They reported six major earthquakes of

Fig. 1 a The location of the Gulf of Aqaba between African plate, Arabian plate, and Sinai subplate (Makris and Rihm 1991). b Modified structures map of the Gulf of Aqaba with the main focal mechanism for the three major earthquakes (1983, 1993, and 1995). Integrated from Ben-Avraham 1985 and 1987

long and 6 km wide (Fig. 1). It is structurally as a pull-apart basin. It includes the deepest points (about 1,800 m) in the Gulf, which are separated by shallow basin sill. The third part is the southern basin which is about 55 km long and 6 km wide, and includes the Dakar (1,400 m) and Tiran (1,300 m) deeps (Hall and Ben-Avraham 1978; BenAvraham 1985). Generally, the sedimentary basins of the Gulf are distributed in an en-echelon faults pattern and represent pull-apart basin with different shapes and sizes. The present study included seismic activity and geological structure of these distinct parts. Seismic hazard assessment studies are of great importance to identify areas with different degrees of hazard. That will serve for further risk studies, construction codes, and land-use planning. These studies are defined as the probable level of ground shaking associated with the recurrence of earthquakes. The assessment of seismic

Arab J Geosci Fig. 2 The recent modified earthquake activity (3D) along the Gulf of Aqaba from 1900 to December 2005, based on the recorded data of NEIS, NERIAG, and ISC. The focal mechanism for the mainshock of 1983 is normal faulting; mainshock of 1993 has normal faulting mechanism with minor sinistral strike-slip component (Abdel Fattah et al. 1997). The mainshock, 1995, left-lateral strike-slip motion with a minor normal component (Hamouda 2000)

intensities VIIIIX in the years 1068, 1072, 1212, 1072, 1293, and 1588 that were felt inside the Gulf of Aqaba. Moreover, two larger shocks occurred along the rift in the years of 1068, 1293, and 1588. The nearest major historical earthquake to the Gulf of Aqaba occurred on March 1068 in the southern part of Wadi Saudi Arabia (Northern Aqaba). It was reported that this earthquake took place in the morning and resulted in about 20,000 deaths (Ambraseys et al. 1994; Badaway 1999; Zilberman et al. 2005). On 7 April 1588, a strong historical earthquake was felt in Northern Hijaz at sunrise. This was followed by numerous continuous shocks and possibly connected with a continuous activity in the Northern Red Sea (Gulf of Suez) region (Baer et al. 1999). The most recent destructive earthquake that has ruptured the plate boundary is the 1995 earthquake in the Gulf of Aqaba. The last seismic activity in the last 20 years could be characterized by the occurrence of swarm earthquakes. The most significant of these are (1) the 1983 swarm with a maximum magnitude of 5.3 with the epicenters concentrated in the northern tectonic block of the Gulf of Aqaba, (2) the 1993 swarm with a maximum magnitude of 5.6 with the epicenters concentrated in the middle tectonic blocks, and (3) the 1995 swarm, which had a maximum magnitude of 7.2 where the epicenter of the main event was located 15 km southeast of Nuweiba City. The 1995 earthquake has potentially loaded the crust of the rift further north and increased its probability for rupturing in another earthquake (Klinger et al. 2000; Al-Zhoubi et al. 2006).

According to Abdel Fattah et al. (1997) and Hamouda (2000), the focal mechanism solutions of the 3 August 1993 mainshock and 22 November 1995 are normal faulting mechanism with some left-lateral strike-slip component. The fault was striking NWSE and dipping to the SW for the 1993 earthquake, while 1995 earthquake has fault striking NS and dipping to the west. The earthquake of November 22, 1995 is the largest shock in this region since the sixteenth century. It occurred at origin time 04:15:11.5 GMT. The epicenter is at 28.68 N, 34.72 E, in the southern Aragonese deep beside the eastern border (Fig. 2). The surface wave magnitude (Ms) was 7.2, while the hypocenter depth was about 12 km (Hamouda 2000). The mainshock was followed by about 1,200 aftershocks in the first day but decreased in the days after. It destroyed a great part of the harbor and many buildings in Nuweiba City. These damages may be related to the weakness of the construction quality and/or inadequate seismic design. Till the moment, many people are still suffering from this earthquake (Fig. 3). The mainshockaftershock distribution was related to the barrier, where the heterogeneous stress pattern was changed to homogeneous after the main shock occurrence. This pattern of aftershocks is characterized by high stress drops, in which a constant stress drop is assumed outside the annular barrier (Abdel Fattah et al. 1997). Kebeasy (1990) considered the Gulf of Aqaba as a continuation to the active Levant fault. According to the available data during that time, he stated that the

Arab J Geosci Fig. 3 The observed field photographs. a Fracture faults at southern Nuweiba (10 km). b The collapse of three-story Paracoda Hotel and failure of one building basement from many building failure-related earthquakes in 1995

earthquake occurrences are found mainly in both ends of the Gulf of Aqaba. This idea was completely changed after the occurrence of the swarms of August 1993 and the earthquake sequence of November 1995, which occurred near the center part of the Gulf of Aqaba (Hamouda 2000). A left-lateral transform fault was initiated along the Dead Sea and the Gulf of Aqaba (Makris and Rihm 1991). A geological sinistral-slip movement is in the range of 105 110 km along the Aqaba wrench zone (Ben-Avraham 1985;

Fig. 1). Movement took place in two stages, as the opening of the tectonically related Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. In the first stage, about 65 km of the left slip displacement occurred possibly during the early Miocene. The second stage represented as 40 km of post-Miocene motion on the Dead Sea transform and Suez rift. The relation at the South Sinai triple Junction shows that the motion along the Dead Sea transform has been about 30 km during the last 5 My (Lyberis 1988). Joffe and Garfunkel (1987) proposed a

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kinematic model of plate motions in the Red Sea area. The model was based on a re-evaluation of the plate boundaries in the Afro-Arabian rift system. The model of recent motion confirms the validity of using the movement on the Dead Sea transform and the Suez Rift to determine the opening in the southern Red Sea. That has given a rate, i.e., 0.50.6 cm/year; the entire 105 km of motion could be achieved in about 1720 My (Garfunkel et al. 1981). The crustal structure of the southern part of the Gulf more closely resembles oceanic crust, whereas the central part is probably of transitional crustal structure (BenAvraham and Tibor 1993), which appears to be tectonically the most active part within the Gulf of Aqaba (Ben-Avraham and Tibor 1993). The northern part of the Gulf appears to have a continental crust structure. Based on geophysical data, Ben-Avraham (1997) and Hamouda (2000) suggested that the rifting activity propagated from the south northwards.

according to the geological setting, fault pattern space distribution, and seismotectonic studies of the region. The selection of this distance was based on an assumption initially made by Prof. O. Nuttli of St. Louis University, USA, that only the events occurring within area about 300 km from the structural site will be of engineering interest (Kijko et al. 2002). The focal depths of the collected data which lie within 40 km were considered in the subsequent hazard analysis.

Methodology Estimating the earthquake hazard parameters A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was applied to the Nuweiba site in the Gulf of Aqaba. The technique used in this study was developed by Kijko and Graham (1998, 1999) and Kijko et al. (2002) for the maximum likelihood estimates of maximum magnitude mmax. The procedure was parametric and consisted essentially of two steps. The first step was applicable to the area in the vicinity of the site, for which the knowledge of the seismic hazard was required, and comprised the estimation of areaspecific parameters. The parameters depend on the PSHA model selected; in this case, they were the area-specific mean seismic activity rate, (which is a parameter of the Poisson distribution), the level of completeness of the earth catalogue, the maximum regional magnitude, mmax, and the GutenbergRichter parameter, b. Assessment of the above parameters required a seismic event catalogue containing origin times, size of seismic events, and spatial location. The value of mmax could be estimated on the basis of the seismological history of the area, by utilizing seismic event catalogues and appropriate statistical estimation procedures. It was assumed that both the analytical form and the parameters of the distribution functions of earthquake magnitude were known (Kijko et al. 2002). This computation was done by using Fortran IV program. The second step required the integration of individual contributions from each seismogenic zone into a sitespecific distribution. The analysis of the main seismic activity regions around the study area was classified into four zones according to geologic setting, fault pattern, space distribution, and seismotectonic studies of the region. Accelerationattenuation model There are great progresses in the last 20 years in the study of strong earthquake ground motion and its engineering applications. New data sets have provided the basis for more reliable empirical estimates of ground motion in future earthquakes. Theoretical models have been devel-

Data selection Earthquake data has been collected from the International Seismological Centre catalogue (ISC 2006), National Earthquake Information Service (NEIS), from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) catalogue (NOAA 2006), and National Egyptian Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (NERIAG 2006). Additionally, published data on historical earthquakes was also considered (Ambraseys 2001; Ambraseys et al. 1994). The catalogue of earthquake recording is divided into an incomplete part (historic) and a complete part (instrumental). The complete part of the catalogue can be subdivided into two groups. The first group (having a magnitude 4) covers the time interval from 1st December 1930 to 31 December 1980. In fact, the period before 1981 was characterized by lack of information regarding the accuracy of the epicenter locations. According to the available data, there is a recording time gap between earthquake events, and accordingly this period was ignored. The second group (with a magnitude threshold of 3.0) covers the time interval from 1 January 1981 to 31 December 2005 and consists of 530 events. Since earthquakes with small magnitude can be neglected in the context of the present study, our analysis was limited to earthquakes with magnitude 3.0. All event magnitudes contained in both these sub-catalogues are in Richter, Mw scale. The standard deviations on the two groups were assumed to be 0.11 and 0.25, respectively. The collected data were classified according to the magnitude and time period. Seismic data were collected for a region encircling within 300 km from the Nuweiba (29.00 N and 34.67 E)

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oped for the estimation of ground-motion parameters and simulation of time series. Seismic hazards studies required the prediction of strong motion from earthquakes that pose a potential threat to public, either by injury or damage to property. In view of a lack record information which could assist in the determination of the maximum peak ground acceleration (PGA), at the site, amax, an approach was applied the idea of design or floating earthquake (Krinitzsky et al. 1993). According to this procedure, amax is the value of PGA calculated from the ground-motion attenuation formula by assuming the occurrence of strongest possible earthquake (e.g., with maximum magnitude) as occurred at the shortest distance. To express seismic hazard in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), the probability of a single earthquake of random magnitude (M) at a random distance (R) will cause a PGA equal to, or greater than, an acceleration of engineering interest amin to be calculated. For this purpose, mathematically the assumption of the attenuation curve of the PGA has the following form: lna c1 c2 M f R " 1

denotes moment magnitude; and c1, c2, c3, and c4 are attenuation coefficients.

Results Maximum expected magnitude and return period For the study area, the maximum expected magnitude mmax 7:4 0:31, the average GutenbergRichter parameter b 0:79 0:14, and the mean area-characteristic seismic activity rate l 3:15 1:32 events (ML 3) per year. The mean return periods for earthquake relationships for individual source areas represent an important study in the seismic hazard analysis (SHA). The number of earthquakes is a basic characteristic measurement of the seismological activity in and around the study area. A probabilistic seismic analysis is a quantitative estimate that a certain level of magnitude will be exceeded in a specified time interval. Figure 4 represents the expected magnitudes from 3.0 to 7.5. The return period for earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 is expected to occur once every 512 years in the Aqaba Gulf (on average, once every 8 years). It should be noted that an earthquake with magnitude ML equal to mmax =7.4 (maximum possible regional magnitude) has no associated return period. Earthquakes with these magnitudes, and which also caused damage, were reported in the middle of the Gulf of Aqaba to the Dead Sea. Figure 5 shows the magnitude of seismic events as a function of time period, covering the range 11,000 years, for different probabilities of 1, 10, 30, 60, and 90 of exceedance. The operating basis earthquake is defined as the

Where c1 and c2 are empirical constants, M is the earthquake magnitude, and (R) is a function of earthquake distance R. the term is a random error which has been observed to have a normal (Gaussian) distribution. According to Kijko et al. (2002), the regression coefficients c1,,c4 for the attenuation factors in formula (1) were assumed for different frequencies of the acceleration response spectra. Therefore, for a given frequency fi of ground motion, the amplitude of the spectral acceleration (SA), a(fi) is described by: lnafi c1i c2i M c3i R c4i lnR " 2

Where the cji are known regression coefficients, i=1,, nf, j=1,,4 and nf is the number of selected frequencies in the spectrum. In addition, it is assumed that the spectral amplitude a(fi)amin(i), where amin(i) denotes the minimum value of the spectral acceleration (SA) of engineering interest. Most of the existing attenuation relationships try to correlate the PGA with magnitude (M), distance (R), and sometimes with site soil conditions. Most of PGA attenuation relationships are based on the local magnitude (ML); the magnitudes associated with the earthquakes in Egypt are a conglomerate of body wave, surface wave, and local magnitudes. According to Atkinson and Boor (1995, 1997), the horizontal component of the PGA at the investigated site using a PGA attenuation of the standard form would be: lnPGA c1 c2 M c3 R c4 lnR 3
Fig. 4 Mean return periods (solid line) and associated standard deviations (dashed lines) of a magnitude (ML) expected for Nuweiba. The maximum magnitude (mmax SD) for Nuweiba is 7.40.31

The ground acceleration is measured in gravity units (g); hypocentral distance, R, is measured in kilometers; M

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Fig. 5 Magnitude (M) expected to be exceeded as a function of time for different probability levels of exceedance

Fig. 6 Probability of an earthquake with magnitude mmax 7:1 0:31 at a hypocentral distance 15.610 km will produce a PGA at the site of exceeding a given value of acceleration

earthquake for which an engineering structure is designed to remain operational. Assuming that the life span of a certain structure in Nuweiba City is 100 years, the maximum expected magnitude in this lifetime of such a structure with the 90% probability of exceedance is ML =5.9. For the same period with 30% probability of exceedance, the curve has magnitude ML =6.8. The site characteristics and PGA According Kijko et al. 2002, the coefficients in the attenuation equation (2) were calculated as c1 =2.46, c2 = 0.87, c3 =0.0008, and c4 =1.511. The PGA values could be calculated from the attenuation formula by assuming the occurrence of the strongest possible earthquake at the shortest distance to the site of investigation. For Nuweiba City, the PGA attenuation can be estimated where mmax =7.4, the nearest hypocentral distance ro =15.6 km, and R = 12 km; the resulting median value of the maximum PGA is equal to 0.41g, and its 80% confidence upper limit, amax (0.80)=0.85g, is represented in the maximum worst case scenario. The vertical-to-horizontal ground acceleration ratio can be conservatively taken as 0.6 (Ambraseys 1995). This would imply a vertical PGA of ~0.24 g. The probability of maximum magnitude mmax 7:4 0:31, occurring at hypocentral distance of 15.6 10 km, will produce PGA exceeding a given value as shown in Fig. 6. The mean return periods with the selected accelerations for the investigated site are shown in Fig. 7. The main important border values for design need information about acceleration values such as 0.05, 0.1, and 0.15 are expected to occur once every 824, 3080, and 60150 years, respectively. The average of one occurrence of accelerations of 0.05, 0.1, and 0.15 are every 15, 50, and 80 years, respectively.

In terms of the horizontal PGA, the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the investigated site is represented in Fig. 8. The main value of PGA is 0.05, which has an average return period of 15 years and has a 90% probability of exceedance in 30 years at Nuweiba City. Otherwise, the PGA value of 0.1 has 90% probability of exceedance in 100 years at Nuweiba site. Deterministic approach of the site-characteristic response spectra The deterministic approach is essentially based on the worst case scenario. The worst case scenario of Nuweiba site is of a maximum magnitude 7.4 earthquake occurring within an epicentral distance of 12 km with 10-km depth. The effect

Fig. 7 Mean return periods for accelerations (solid line) and associated standard deviations 0.41 (dashed lines) expected for the Nuweiba site

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Fig. 8 PGA at Nuweiba site as a function of time period for different levels

of this event was calculated at Nuweiba site and is expressed in terms of acceleration response spectrum. Figure 9 shows the 5% damping for the median value of horizontal acceleration response spectra at Nuweiba site. The spectrum was calculated over the frequency range of 120 Hz and the median PGA value of 0.51g.

Discussion and conclusions The aim of this study is to highlight the degree of hazards related to the earthquake activities associated with Nuweiba

Fig. 9 Median value of the horizontal acceleration response spectra (5% damping) predicted at Nuweiba site for an earthquake magnitude 7.4 at the hypocentral distance of 15.6 km

City, Gulf of Aqaba, in terms of speculating the possible future potentially damaging earthquakes. The seismic activity during the last two decades was mainly expressed by three significant swarms (Mw>5.2) most notably in 1983, 1993, and 1995 (Hamouda 2000; Al-Zoubi et al. 2002; Hofstetter 2003; Al-Zoubi et al. 2006). The seismic energy appears to have migrated from the south (Aragonese Basin to the north Eilat Basin) during the period of the study (historical and 1920 to 2006). Most of the aftershock activity is concentrated north of the main shock in the Aragonese and Eilat Basins, while the activity is diffused south of the main shock in the Dakar and Tiran basins. Most of the moderate-to-strong aftershocks (November 22, 1995 earthquake) of the whole aftershock sequence occurred in the Aragonese basin, mainly in the first 100 days following the main shock (Hofstetter 2003; Al-Zoubi et al. 2006). BenMenahem (1991), from the analyses of historical records, suggested a maximum local magnitude (ML =7.3) which corresponds to a maximum rupture length of 115 km (Gulf of Aqaba). The corresponding estimated maximum magnitude in this study is larger than the expected from the rupture of a single fault. Nuweiba City is one of the important commercial and tourism cities in Egypt. It is located on the western border of the Gulf of Aqaba, about 10 km from Aragonese Basin. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to understand the earthquake-resistant designs for construction of safe structures. The seismic hazard parameters of this study are estimated by the maximum likelihood procedure by Kijko et al. (2002); any additional geological or geophysical information can be easily incorporated. The procedure described is consequently capable of giving a realistic assessment of seismic hazard in the areas of both low and high seismicity, since the maximum regional magnitude, mmax, and the maximum site-characteristic PGA, amax, are the principal importance in any PSHA. Moreover, this approach is particularly useful for the mapping of seismic hazard in areas where both larger, historical observations and complete, recent instrument observation are available. The procedure takes into account the incompleteness of the seismic catalogues. The method accepts mixed data of two types, one containing only the largest earthquakes and the other containing data sets complete from different thresholds of magnitude. In the worst case scenario, Nuweiba City may be exposed to a destructive earthquake of maximum magnitude mmax 7:4 0:31 occurring at hypocentral distance of 15.610 km. Assuming that the life time of a certain type of structures in Nuweiba City is 100 years, the maximum expected earthquake in this lifetime of such a structure with the 90% probability of exceedance curve has a magnitude ML =5.9. But for the same life time with 30% probability of exceedance, the curve has local magnitude ML =6.8.

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The use of site-specific parameters to determine the horizontal component of the ground acceleration spectrum represents an advanced technique. The determination of the horizontal PGA that will occur in Nuweiba City is 0.41g, in which the vertical ground acceleration is 0.24g. The average return period of 15 years is associated with horizontal PGA of 0.05g. Moreover, this value has a probability of exceedance in 30 years of approximately 90% at Nuweiba City. According to the available historical data, the acceleration of 0.1g is expected to occur once every 3080 years, with an average of once every 50 years.

The magnitude value and the location of the event of 1995 (surface wave magnitude 7.2) changed the previous information about the seismic hazards of the Gulf of Aqaba. The values which calculated PGA indicate that Nuweiba city has a relatively high seismic hazard. Therefore, Nuweiba City may be subjected to earthquake of ML =6.3 with horizontal PCA=0.15 within a period of 3080 years. Conclusively, recalling that there is a significant seismic activity along the Gulf of Aqaba, it is of great necessity to assess and rehabilitate a program that can mitigate the seismic risk for structures existing in this region. Additionally, more future development plans and earthquake preparedness strategies should be based on the detailed information about the new geological characteristics of events in this region.
Acknowledgments I would like to express my appreciation to Prof. A. Kijko, Prof. J. P. Petief, and Prof. G. Graham for providing the program of the assessment of hazards parameters, which was very helpful in understanding this study. I am also grateful to Prof. Dr. M. B. Awad for his helpful discussions and thorough review of the manuscript.

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