Prof.

Tim Jacksons Report Prosperity without Growth a review and critique

By Trevor Berrill Sustainable Energy Systems Consultant and Environmental Educator

Population
Exploded hyperbolically 1800s Currently 7 Billion 5 Bill. Added in last 70 yrs Still adding 70mill./yr Projected 9 -10 Bill. by 2060 Most Growth in Very Poor Countries Ratio Poor to Rich people Now 4:1 In few decades > 7:1
(Source: Nielsen, p.238)

???

No. of Earths to sustain 7 Bill. At Australian Affluence Level

Prof. Tim Jacksons Findings Prosperity without Growth Report

1. Building Sustainable Macro-Econ.

Developing Macro-econ. Capability tools, variables, interactions, investment required etc
Eg. Canadian Low Grow Model, IPCC, Stern Report

Investing in green jobs and business, public assets and infrastructures

Eg. Deutsche Bank Green Investment

Increasing financial and fiscal prudence

Improving macro-econ. accounting Eg. GDP vs ISEW

2. Protecting Social Capabilities

Sharing work & improving work/life balance
Eg. various EU country work policies

Tackling systemic inequality

Eg. restrict CEO bonuses

Measuring prosperity
Eg. Dutch capabilities index

Strengthening human & social capital

Eg. Permaculture or Transition Towns movements

Reversing culture of consumerism

Eg. Scandinavian advertising policies

3. Respecting Ecological Limits

Imposing clearly defined resource/emission caps
Eg. Stockholm Resilience Centre Planetary Boundaries Study

Fiscal reform for sustainability

Eg. Green taxes that shift tax burden to pollution, not income

Promoting sustainable technology transfer to poorer nations & ecosystem protection

Eg. Clean Development Mechanism

Issues and Criticisms

Characteristics of Modern Economies

Efficient ??? - Maybe if measured by monetary flows Not if measured by energy and material flows Still treat ecosystem as external to economy Dont account for many forms of social capital
Source: Foran, Millenium Report

Cheap Energy = In-Efficiency!!

Material Flows (North America) - 1% ends up in products & is still in use 6 months after sale. Energy Efficiency - only a few percent for most efficient countries.
(Source: Hawken et al, 1999:81)

Least Efficient Transport Mode

99.4% Fossil Fuel WASTED

0.6% Shifts Driver 12% Moves Car

Equitable?
Ratio of Wealth - Haves VS Have-nots increasing 1 bill. on < $1 per day, 2 bill. on < $2/day 20% Global Pop. Earn 2% of income

OECD inequality increased in past 20yrs

Ratio of CEO income to Workers income > 262:1 Wealth - Trickly up / not down
(Source: Jackson; Nielsen; Mishel)

CEO to Aver. Worker Pay

Rich

Poor

Perfect Markets?
Advertising manipulation of young children Subsidies to Big Polluters - $10 Bill./yr to fossil fools industry in Australia Ideal/ Equitable Information Flows

Bulletin, 28 Sep 2003

Real Cost of Middle East Oil to USA > $450 per barrel Iraq war in 1990
Source: RMI Newsletter(1990), Vol. VI, No. III

Sustainability Principles
Polluter Pays > Ignored Coal Industry Mine Effluent / CSG Mining 60% of ecosystems degraded Precautionary Principle > Ignored GHG emissions increase 40% since 1990 Scarcity of crucial resources looming oil, food, water

How the World Eats!

Food Security?
Issues

FAO enough food for 12 bill. Proportion of undernourished in developing world declining since 1960s
Source: FAO (2010) State of Food Insecurity in the World

Wastage 30 to 40% Protectionism VS Globalisation Food resource intensity food miles 8000km for Cup of Yoghurt from Germany Commodity speculation Biofuels competition Extreme weather global warming

FAO Food Insecurity Report 2010

If 9 bill. at Affluence Level of OECD

Need a World Economy Size increase by: 2050 of

15 times larger

2100 of

40 times larger

This is a Totally Absurd, Unsustainable Goal

Need a New Economic /Political Paradigm

Steady State Econ.
Ecological limits
Focus on Community ownership / control Energy / Water / Food / Shelter Eg. Danish Windfarm Coops

Re-defining Value
Cooperation

Minimising Waste
Using renewable inputs

Redistributing Wealth

Jackson's Argument
Age of Systemic Irresponsibility Driven by Economic Rationalism Growth Imperative rules GFC - rogue individuals and slack regulators??? Caused by Systemic Problem Growth imperative > shaped Architecture of Modern Econs. Expansion of credit > fuel for growth Inherently ecologically and economically unstable

Need to Redefine Prosperity from:

Old Paradigm - Growth Imperative Material Focus - more is better Unlimited Freedoms Ever increasing GDP rules Any type of innovation / novelty is good Only way to create jobs New Paradigm - Prosperity means humans capacity to flourish Vital social and psychological aspects Participate meaningfully in life of society Range of bounded capabilities Live within Ecological Limits

Energy Consumption of the Rich & Famous

Mariah Careys pet dog, Jack, used to fly first class but has grown too big. He now travels by private jet or in a chauffeurdriven Mercedes.

Source: Sunday Mail 20 April 2008

In Defence of Growth
Material opulence necessary to flourish Provides basic entitlements health, education etc. Maintains economic and social stability Material possessions > allow participation in society > status, identity, social affiliations. Economic resilience > protect against external shocks > prevent collapse

Expand fast enough to offset labour productivity

Conventional Response - Decoupling

Reduce material and energy throughout intensity Lots of room to move Evidence energy /unit of econ. O/P declined 30% in last 30 yrs Carbon intensity has decreased > 1kgCO2/$ to 0.77kgCO2/$ Relative Decoupling Intensity decreases but resource impacts rise but more slowly Eg. when GDP grows faster than resource intensity decreases - total carbon emissions increased 40% since 1990 Absolute Decoupling Resource impacts decline in total

Material Intensity - OECD

Critique of Decoupling
Evidence for overall reductions hard to find Scale required is huge Eg. to Stabilise Climate at OECD level of aspiration for all, need 130 times lower C-intensity by 2050 Rule of Thumb In a growing econ. with increasing average income, absolute decoupling will occur when the rate of relative decoupling is greater than the rates of increase in population and income combined.

770g CO2/$> 6gCO2/$ of Econ. O/P

Iron Cage of Consumerism

Profit motive newer, better, cheaper Survival in market adapt and innovate Demand for novelty essential > STATUS Perfect Complements Restless consumer Restless innovating entrepreneur > Relentless pursuit of novelty > undermines social well-being

A New Disease Affluenza When too much is never enough

$30,000 Diamonds $100,000 SUV Weight 4 tonnes Fuel Economy 10L/km O-100kph in 2 secs $2 Mill. McMansion 500 m2 4 bathrooms 12 entertainment rooms Aver. Occupancy 1.5

(Source: CM Life Section 16/7/05, & Hamilton)

After the Crisis Reinvigorate at all costs

Keynesian Approach Public spending Eg. infrastructure Tax cuts to stimulate demand Variations - Green New Deal Invest in: Energy security Low-C infrastructure RE, EE and CCS Ecological protection Barrier Reef pollution

Ultimately Still rely on Consumption Growth

Renewable Energy

Macro-economics for Sustainability

Goals: Economic and social stability Ecological sustainability New Modelling shows that these goals are achieveable Failure of Old Models GDP poor measure of success of economy - no asset base adjustment - measures goods and bads - blind to indebtedness - external costs not included

Assumes substitution always possible

GNP vs Sustainable Economic Welfare Index

1990 GNP 1972

ISEW

(Source: Weizsacker, p.273)

Canadian Study by Peter Victor

Uses a fairly conventional econ. model Includes output, consumption, public spending, investment, employment, trade etc. Calibrated against statistical data

Low-Growth Scenario for Canada: Collapse

Low Growth Scenario for Canada: Resilience

Difference between Collapse & Resilience

Collapse Focus of investment in private goods Investment and employment BAU Resilience Focus of investment in public goods Unemployment falls by reducing work hours

New Macro-economy
Variables to include: Energy and resource dependency Value of environmental services and capital stocks Investment in: Resource productivity, Renewable energy Clean technologies, Greening business Climate adaption Ecosystem maintenance and protection

Restructuring Consumerism
Dismantle perverse incentives for unproductive status competition Key Elements 1. Building Sustainable Macro-econ. 2. Protecting social capabilities 3. Respecting Ecological Limits

Provide structures to participate socially

Governments role is to reverse focus on individual materialism

Reflections and Criticisms

Is it just frigging with the rigging of a fundamentally flawed system Global pressures probably demand war like response Market information now Internet based must be educated to assess good from bad Tax reform crucial need to Tax the bads, not the goods. The Haves dont want to relinquish material wealth

References
Beder, S. (1993). The Nature of Sustainable Development. Newham, Scribe Publications. what does sustainable development really mean? Beder, S. (2003). Power Plays. Scribe Publications. expose of the failure of privatisation of the electricity industry in US, UK, Aust and Nz. Cocks, D. (1996). People Policy. UNSW Press. examines population policy in Australia & pros / cons. Diesendorf, M. (2007). Greenhouse Solutions with Renewable Energy. UNSW Press. outlines viability of renewable energy and energy efficiency as cost effective and environmental benign solution to energy concerns and the barriers to their uptake. Ekins, P. et al (1992) Wealth Beyond Measure An Atlas of New Economics. GAIA Books. - examines the basic flaws in the economic rationalists approach and suggests pathways forward to account more fully for environmental and social costs. Hamilton, C. et al (2005) Affluenza. Allen and Unwin. examines the impacts of our over-consumption of goods and services, environmentally, socially and politically. Hawkins, P., Lovins, A & H (2000). Natural Capitalism. Allen and Unwin. (extract viewable at www.rmi.org) gives pathway forward for economic change based on resource efficiency and renewable energy. Homer-Dixon, T. (2006). The upside of down catastrophe, creativity and the renewal of civilisation. Island Press. examines the large systemic stressors on civilisation and solutions. Foran,B & Poldy,F (2002). Futue Dilemmas Options to 2050 for Australias population, technology, resources and environment. CSIRO Publishing. - key dilemmas facing continued BAU growth in Aust. Economy.

Karlson et al (2005). The Natural Advantage of Nations. Earthscan. examines sustainability and pathways forward for business and countries.

Lenzsen, M. (1998). Primary energy and greenhouse gases embodied in Australian final consumption: an input-output analysis. Energy Policy, Vol. 26, No. 6, pp. 498-506.
Meadows, D.L & D.H., Randers, J. (1992) Beyond the Limits. Earthscan Publications. sequel to Club of Rome Report, Limits to Growth. - revisits the trends and limits outlined in the original report with updated computer modelling. Mishel, L. (2007). State of Working America 2006-2007.

Millenium Report of Secretary-General of the UN (2000). www.un.org/millennium/sg/report/

Nielsen, R. (2005). The Little Green Handbook A guide to critical global trends. Scribe Publications. analysis of key statistics global on population, resource use, climate, pollution etc. OConnor, M. Et al (2008). Overloading Australia How government and media dither and deny on population. Envirobook. Pearce, D. (1991). Blue Print 1 & 2 , Greening the World Economy. Earthscan Publications. examines the problems with current economic system and methods to change to account more fully for environmental and social costs. Victor, P. (2008). Managing without Growth slower by design not disaster. Chleltenham: Edward Elgar. Von Weizsacker, E., Lovins, A & H. (1997). Factor 4 Doubling Wealth , Halving Resource Use. Allen and Unwin. a report to the Club of Rome on potential resource efficiency. Yencken, D and Wilkinson, D. (2000). Resetting the Compass Australias journey towards sustainability. CSIRO publishing. outlines the big sustainability issues facing Australia.

Internet Sites
Alternative Technology Association Australian Building Greenhouse Rating Australian Consumer Association Australian Government - Australian Greenhouse Office - ESD Australian and New Zealand Solar Energy Society Centre for Alternative Technology Clean Energy Council Environmental Building News Environmental Defenders Fund Environmental Protection Agencies Rocky Mountain Institute The Australia Institute www.ata.org.au www.abgr.com.au www.choice.com.au www.greenhouse.gov.au www.environment.gov.au/epcg/esd/integ.htm www.anzses.org www.cat.org.uk www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au www.greenbuilding.com www.edf.org www.epa.gov; & www.epa.qld.gov.au www.rmi.org www.tai.org.au

Magazines and Journals in the Library

Choice - Australian Consumer Association quarterly magazine Eco-generation Journal of Clean Energy Council of Australia ECOS CSIRO journal Habitat - Australian Conservation Foundation quarterly magazine Renew - Alternative Technology Association quarterly magazine Solar Progress Aust & NZ Solar Energy Soc. Quarterly magazine