2011 Atlas Standard Volume 10 - Giving Results Through Oct. 2011

the exclusive resource for monthly U.S.
charitable giving results, forecasts and analysis
2011 standard report volume 10

including results through october
The Atlas of Giving standard edition is the exclusive monthly resource for nationwide U.S. charitable giving results and forecasts. It provides monthly results and trends information for the past 12 months, as well as forecasts for the coming year. Commentary and practical suggestions are included in this complimentary tool.
P R O F E S S I O N A L
E D I T I O N
The Atlas of Giving PROFESSIONAL EDITION represents a quantum leap forward in fundraising intelligence. This detailed resource includes U.S. charitable giving results and forecasts by sector (religion, health, education, etc.), source (individuals, bequests, etc.) and state. Benefit from valuable information offered in this monthly report available via subscription.
custom
The Atlas of Giving Custom model applies the same methods used to create the Atlas of Giving to develop a forecasting algorithm unique to your organization. Your nonprofits gift history and other information is combined with economic and demographic variables to develop a custom revenue model. Realize exponential return on investment from this revolutionary opportunity.
info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 10 standard report page 2

2011 ATLAS of Giving, info@atlasofgiving.com. This material is provided for the intended ATLAS of Giving, Pat. Pend., member only. Distribution of this information without express written permission is prohibited. The ATLAS of Giving forecasts are provided for informational purposes only. ATLAS of Giving disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any warranties of application for a specific purpose. Forecasts are updated monthly. Current month forecasts represent a +/-4% margin of error, increasing as projection lead time increases.
contents
national giving giving at a glance results & trends
calendar year to date results & trends last month results & trends 3 month results & trends 6 month results & trends 12 month results & trends
p a ge 4 p a ge 6
forecast
calendar year forecast this month forecast 3 month forecast 6 month forecast 12 month forecast
p a ge 7
insight & analysis model calculations faqs contact us coming next month
p a ge 1 0 p a ge 1 5 p a ge 1 6 p a ge 2 0 p a ge 2 2
From time to time, reported economic variables are revised by the reporting entity. I n cases where variables related to the ATLAS of Giving data are revised, our figures will be updated to reflect the most current reported data.

giving at a glance
national results highlights
Year to date charitable giving through October 2011 totals $286.97 billion up 7.7% over last year. Growth in 2011 giving slows more dramatically as the year progresses. Giving for the month of October surged up 3.1% over September. S e p t e m ber
LAST MONTH RESULTS ($ BILLIONS)
$28.09
$28.95
up 3.1%
O c t o b er
2011 MONTHLY GIVING RESULTS ($ BILLIONS)

$29.33 $28.73 $28.55 $28.69 $28.15 $28.48 $28.09 $29.12 $28.88 $28.95

national results forecast

The forecast indicates that 2011 giving will total $343.33 billion 6.6% higher than last year. The forecast for the next 12 months shows an interesting intersection of giving as compared to last year.
NEXT MONTH FORECAST ($ BILLIONS) $28.95 $28.25

down 2.4%
October It is projected that 2012 giving will decline through April and will begin to improve late in the year.
N o v e mb e r
12 MONTH GIVING FORECAST ($ BILLIONS)
2010 / 2011 2011 / 2012 $29.76 $29.33 $29.43 $29.12 $28.90 $28.69 $28.88 $28.48 $28.48 $28.09
$28.95 $28.25 $28.11 $28.15 $27.91 $27.99 $27.32 $27.47
$28.55 $28.73
$27.94
$27.69 $27.71
$28.04

national giving
giving results & trends
Giving has been strong this year, with a 3.1% surge in October to $28.95 billion. This brings the year to date total to $286.97 billion an increase of 7.7% versus the same time last year.
calendar ytd
Up 7.7%
CALENDAR YTD TREND ($ BILLIONS) $266.57 $286.97 last month
Up 6.0%
(versus same period prior year)
2010
2011 past 3 months
Amount ($ Billions) November December January February March April May June July August September October Total
2009 / 2010 26.09 26.22 26.18 26.27 26.80 27.06 26.48 26.22 26.89 26.36 26.99 27.32 $318.88
2010 / 2011 27.47 27.91 28.15 28.55 28.73 29.33 29.12 28.69 28.88 28.48 28.09 28.95 $342.35
% Change 5.3% 6.4% 7.5% 8.7% 7.2% 8.4% 10.0% 9.4% 7.4% 8.0% 4.1% 6.0% 7.4%
Up 6.0%
past 6 months
Up 7.5%
past 12 months
Up 7.4%

national giving
giving forecast
November giving is forecast to decline 2.4% versus October for a total of $28.25 billion. Despite the decline, calendar year end giving is expected to be 6.6% higher than 2010.
calendar year forecast
Up 6.6%
CALENDAR YEAR FORECAST ($ BILLIONS) $321.95 $343.33 this month
Up 2.8%
(versus same period last year)
2010
2011 next 3 months
Amount ($ Billions) November December January February March April May June July August September October Total
2010 / 2011 $27.47 $27.91 $28.15 $28.55 $28.73 $29.33 $29.12 $28.69 $28.88 $28.48 $28.09 $28.95 $342.35
2011 / 2012 $28.25 $28.11 $27.99 $27.94 $27.69 $27.71 $28.04 $28.48 $28.90 $29.43 $29.76 $30.13 $342.43
% Change 2.8% 0.7% -0.6% -2.1% -3.6% -5.5% -3.7% -0.7% 0.1% 3.3% 5.9% 4.1% 0.0%
Up 1.0%
Down 1.4%
next 6 months
0.0%
next 12 months

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PROFESSIONAL EDITION
Monthly giving forecasts, results, trends and analysis Now indexed by charitable sector and gift source in the Atlas of Giving expanded PROFESSIONAL EDITION! Health Education Religion Arts Nature / Environment International Human / Disaster Services Society Benefit Individual giving Corporate giving Foundation grants Bequest giving
Plus ... Trends and forecasts by State!
BONUS: Each report contains Professional Presentation Graphics ready for you to use in your own presentations!
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custom
How much money will YOU raise next quarter next year?
The same methods that were used to create the Atlas of Giving can be employed to create an Atlas of Giving Custom model for your organization. We can identify a unique forecasting algorithm that is specifically tailored to an individual nonprofit. Your organizations giving history and other information is used with economic and demographic variables to develop a custom revenue version. The Atlas Custom forecasting tool creates efficiencies and opportunities that have never before been available
Schedule fundraising activities and campaigns

to maximize their potential
Plan budgets with more precision than ever Realize exponential return on investment
Email today for more information.
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insight & analysis
insight & analysis

economic factors that affect giving
The Atlas of Giving has definitively proven that charitable giving is directly related to economic and demographic factors. The relevant factors differ from sector to sector, source to source, and state to state. They also differ from one nonprofit to another. Only the Atlas of Giving has identified the factors and their proportional impact on giving in different sectors, sources and states. October economic results were encouraging but dont pop champagne corks quite yet Stock prices were the biggest pleasant surprise. After falling 5 straight months, stocks rebounded in a big way in October surging 9.72% for the month and returning year to date results to positive territory up 5.45% for 2011. Thats the good news. However analysts expect that a higher individual savings rate and reduced consumer spending will keep economic growth and stock prices down through year end. Lets hope theyre wrong. Home sales rose 5.7% in October. That sounds very encouraging. However, experts are not impressed. They attribute the rise to a 3.1% decline in prices. The effect of housing on charitable giving is a subject of speculation. There is some evidence that individuals have more disposable income available for giving when they are not spending that money on increased house payments, insurance, tax, furnishings and upkeep. But, there is also evidence that good news in housing sales has a positive impact on some forms of giving. The Atlas is analyzing these relationships. Consumer Confidence declined 17% in October. This is not a good sign for individual giving. According to a Conference Board survey, the average American family will spend $497 in 2011 holiday spending not much in comparison to past years and not much available for charitable gifts. Unemployment went down in October! However, it is not enough to cause a significant shift in giving or make any sort of pronouncement of good things to come. It dropped from 9.1% to 9.0% not enough to help and one month does not a trend make. Business Confidence was up in October which is very good news indeed. Keep your fingers crossed that it will continue. Business success drives the American economic engine and fuels the charitable giving economy with jobs, increased corporate and individual income, higher stock prices and a general atmosphere of financial confidence.

insight & analysis

other factors affecting giving
Political fundraising continues to consume some funds that would ordinarily be available for charitable giving. The totals now are not yet significant, but the Atlas continues to monitor the effects. Year end solicitation is helping to mitigate a less than favorable fourth quarter giving environment. Nonprofits and churches focus a lot of attention and effort on scheduling asking activities during the last quarter of the calendar year. The effect over time is that it has become a self fulfilling prophecy for year end to produce the best results. However, there is no evidence that contributors are in a more favorable giving mood during this time they are simply responding to being asked directly to give. Winter weather is believed to play a role in what families and businesses have available for giving. Severe weather increases costs of utilities, fuel, shipping, food and other expenses like snow plowing. The charitable giving environment is better when the weather is better.

insight & analysis

best and worst performers by state*
All states are projected to have an even stronger year than forecast last month. When comparing the calendar year forecast as of September versus the latest figures from October the winners are Montana, West Virginia, Rhode Island, New Mexico, the District of Columbia, Kansas and Alaska are on track to do at least 16% better than expected as of last month.
The increased projections are less pronounced in other states: Californias forecast has only grown by 2.6% and Texas by 2.8% over what was expected as of last month.*
* For more detailed information, subscribe to the Atlas of Giving Professional Edition an exclusive monthly resource for giving results and forecasts by sector, source and state.

insight & analysis
suggestions for professional practitioners*
Fundraising: Giving conditions are currently forecast to be less than favorable through April of 2012. This is a good time to focus activities and resources on donor retention and upgrading activities and spend less effort on acquisition until conditions improve. Consider mobilizing for an Operation Thank You. Enlist volunteers and staff to reach out to valued existing and newly acquired donors by phone to let them know how important they are to the mission. Use personal communication to give specific examples of how their giving has had a successful mission outcome. This activity can create an optional opportunity to offer to move the donor to a painless recurring donation program using a credit card or bank draft. If your organization has historically done well by being more aggressive in solicitation activities during poor economic conditions; get busy right away. Youve got about six months to make a windfall. Church and religious giving is expected to be almost 2% worse in the next twelve months than for the same period last year. This is a good time to consider using fundraising techniques and practices that are traditional for other nonprofits, but seldom used in churches. Direct mail, special events and creating online options could open new revenue sources. The summer months are usually frowned upon by development professionals for solicitations. However, the giving environment is forecast to improve beginning in July. Rescheduling solicitation activities like mailings and some events to July and August from the winter/spring will likely pay off handsomely especially since there will be less competition for the donors attention. Pennsylvania, Illinois, New York and Florida will be the most challenging states to raise money in during the next twelve months. Less populated states like Vermont are projected to have more stable giving environments. If your organization covers a multi-state geography, pay close attention to Atlas Pro state forecast information in planning budgets and solicitation activities.*
* For more detailed information, subscribe to the Atlas of Giving Professional Edition an exclusive monthly resource for giving results and forecasts by sector, source and state.

insight & analysis
suggestions for professional practitioners* (continued)
Budgeting: For fiscal years already underway, adjust budget expenditures now to account for flat to -3.0% charitable giving results through July of 2012. For planning budget for fiscal years not yet underway, anticipate declining giving revenue through June 2012, then prepare for a period of growth late in the year.

model calculations
model calculations
precise results and trends
Mathematical analysis of over 60 variables and 42 years of comprehensive giving data was used to create the Atlas of Giving model. Results calculations correlate to overall giving in the U.S. at a rate of 99.5%. The margin of error for the model is +/- 4% in the current month.
reliable forecasts
Margins of error for projections increase with time as illustrated below.
FORECAST MARGIN OF ERROR $29.00 $28.00 $27.00 $26.00 $25.00 $24.00 $23.00 Margins of error for forecast projections increase with time.
Forecasts have proven very reliable since the Atlas of Giving was created in 2010. Accuracy rates range from over 91% for one year projections, to over 99% for one month forecasts.
Forecast one month 3 months 6 months 12 months
Reliability 99.5% 98-99% 94-95% 91-92%

faqs
faqs
What is the Atlas of Giving?
The Atlas of Giving is the economic intelligence tool for charitable giving. The Atlas was originally created by PhilanthroMAX, LLC (www.philanthromax.com). It is a precise mathematical formula that relies on specific, defined economic and demographic input factors. The formula accurately matches published giving data for the last 42 years. It's coefficient of correlation to past published data is 99.5%. Because the factors included in the formula are reported monthly, the Atlas of Giving is able to measure charitable giving as it occurs monthly and does not need to rely on limited surveys or delayed reporting data. Other charitable giving indexes rely on surveys and fail to account for large segments of the giving economy such as contributions to churches, donor advised funds, some of the largest nonprofits, many small nonprofits and private foundations.
Each monthly Atlas of Giving includes results and trends for the past 12 months, as well as forecasts for the next 12 months.
The Atlas of Giving accounts for the entire giving economy and is the most precise measurement of total charitable giving in the United States. The most exciting innovation that comes from this technology is the ability to reliably forecast charitable giving. The complimentary Atlas of Giving Standard report and the subscription-based Atlas Professional Edition contain a monthly measurement of charitable giving, a 12 month forecast of charitable giving (updated monthly), insight and analysis of factors and events that affect giving and practical suggestions based on the giving environment and forecast. The Atlas of Giving PROFESSIONAL EDITION (Atlas PRO) also contains the monthly measurement, forecast and analysis by 8 sectors, 4 sources and 50 states plus the District of Columbia. It also includes a complete PowerPoint presentation that is updated each month. The introductory membership price is $99 annually for the monthly Atlas Pro report and PowerPoint presentation.

faqs
What are the practical benefits of the Atlas of Giving?
Raise more money with vital, timely information. Respond immediately to events that affect giving. Adjust spending and promotion to current giving conditions and forecasts. Create more effective and efficient budgets. Examine fundraising results in real time. Review chapter / unit / region results in real time. Evaluate staff performance with an accurate benchmark. Gain a competitive fundraising edge. Make your organization more effective and efficient. Monitor effects of events and policy changes on charitable giving.
How was the Atlas of Giving created?

The Atlas of Giving formulas were built upon the hypothesis that charitable giving is directly tied to macroeconomic factors and macro-demographic factors. A team of 25 PhD level mathematicians, analysts and statisticians evaluated more than 60 possible variables and their interactions with charitable giving outcomes over four decades. The hypothesis was proven: Charitable giving is directly tied to economic and demographic factors and only the Atlas of Giving knows exactly what they are. The research team used the relevant identified factors to create an algorithm that was compared with published annual giving data dating back to 1968. The algorithm correlates to 42 years of published giving history with a coefficient of correlation of 99.5%. Other indexes and estimates like Giving USA and the Blackbaud Index are based on surveys. These are not statistically representative of all nonprofits and churches. The Atlas of Giving does not rely on surveys. The input variables used in the Atlas algorithms are a handful of publicly reported economic and demographic measurements that are updated and reported each month. These variables also make a reliable forecast a reality. Therefore, the Atlas is able to use the algorithms to measure giving as it occurs monthly and provide an updated monthly forecast. Unlike any other index or measurement, the Atlas also monitors current events (political changes, disasters, tax policy changes, important economic factors like unemployment, the stock market, consumer confidence, etc.) and provides analysis of their impact on current and future giving. Indexes and surveys are rearward looking. The Atlas of Giving is forward-focused and provides real nonprofit management utility.

faqs
How accurate is the Atlas?
There will never be a centralized database that contains all charitable contributions made to 1.3 million nonprofits and churches. Many economic measurements (retail sales, unemployment, manufacturing inventories, etc.) rely on established formulas (algorithms) to establish a benchmark for measuring or estimating. The benchmark is then used to measure changes, establish trends and create forecasts. Consistency and fidelity of the benchmark is vital in measuring change and providing a forecast. The Atlas of Giving uses this proven methodology. The Atlas of Giving measurement benchmarks are solid. They account for all gifts to all charities and churches. These established benchmarks are highly accurate because they do not rely on surveys, samples, out of date tax information or reporting from charitable organizations and associations. They cannot be influenced by special interests, the media, corporations or charities. Atlas of Giving measurements are more accurate than any others that exist. The Atlas forecast is very precise. For 12 months of future forecasts, the Atlas forecast is 90-91% accurate; for 6 months 94-95%; for 3 months 98-99% and for 1 month 99100%. Like any forecast, however, the level of reliability decreases and the margin of error increases as the forecasting period increases. The forecast is updated monthly to account for changing events, economic conditions and policy changes and it is the only resource that provides analysis of events that impact charitable giving as they unfold. It is also the only resource that measures all sectors and sources of U.S. giving monthly.
August 2010 to July 2011 one month 3 months 6 months 12 months
Forecast $26.51 $78.96 $156.64 $309.70
Actual $26.38 $77.61 $166.16 $339.50
Reliability 99.5% 98.3% 94.2% 91.2%
The chart illustrates that in 2010, the Atlas projections for August 2010 were 99.5% accurate. Projections at that time for the next 12 months (through July of 2011) were 91.2% accurate.

faqs
How is the Atlas of Giving different from other reports and indexes?
The Atlas of Giving is the only resource that provides an ongoing forecast of giving which is updated every month. Other resources are singularly focused on looking back in time. The Atlas of Giving is forward-focused. The Atlas provides information that has immediate utility and provides future benefits. Other resources are available only on an annual basis and some are released six months after the end of the reporting year. The Atlas reports national giving as it occurs monthly in the current year. The Atlas of Giving analyzes the effect of current events on charitable giving. Others analyze historical events and their impact on last years giving.
Is the Atlas of Giving useful for all types of NPOs (churches, schools, local charities, hospitals, etc.)?
The Atlas is useful for any organization, church or business which derives some portion of its income from charitable giving.
How does the Atlas of Giving account for world events and economic changes?
The ability to respond to and measure the impact of change on giving is an inherent component of the Atlas of Giving. Because the Atlas is updated monthly, Atlas followers get real-time analysis of changes and events as they unfold.
Can the Atlas of Giving be customized for my organization?

Absolutely. We can create a unique model based on your giving data in conjunction with other variables that will generate a custom forecast and index for your organization or church. Please contact us at info@atlasofgiving.com for more information about the Atlas of Giving Custom model.

faqs
What is PhilanthroMAX?
PhilanthroMAX is an innovative firm that created the Atlas of Giving. It was founded upon the idea that philanthropic effectiveness can be maximized through products that provide analytics, evaluation and databased planning and accountability. PhilanthroMAX is led by experienced and successful fundraising executives who understand both sides of the philanthropic equation giving and getting. We specialize in providing products that use business principles and techniques to make giving and getting more effective, efficient and accountable. Our solutions can help: Deliver better results or improve effectiveness and efficiency. Expertly start new philanthropic ventures. Develop objective analysis of existing programs. Create product solutions for donor retention, planned giving, major gifts and annual programs. Achieve success during uncertain times.
Will PhilanthroMAX perform special analytic projects for clients?

Yes. We can accommodate a wide variety of special needs. Please contact us to discuss your individual objectives and requirements. For more information about PhilanthroMAX, please visit www.philanthromax.com.
contact us
info@atlasofgiving.com 877.414.0078

Raise more money now.

Meet short-term revenue goals Improve donor retention Open new revenue sources Expand existing income streams
ContactustodaytogetGUARANTEEDresults. Ifwedontproduce,youdontpay.Itsthatsimple.
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PhilanthroMAXleaderscreatedtheAtlasofGivingTM. Letusputouringenuitytoworkforyourorganization.
The Atlas of Giving is updated monthly based on the most current data available to help you make educated decisions and raise more money.
coming in the next monthly report

November 2011 Results and Updated Forecasts through November 2012!
Will final months of the year fall flat or just fall? How will stock market fluctuations impact fourth quarter giving? What is the outlook for the next 12 months?
Be the first to see the future of charitable giving!
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2011 Atlas Standard Volume 10 - Giving Results Through Oct. 2011

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the exclusive resource for monthly U.S.

charitable giving results, forecasts and analysis

2011 standard report volume 10

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 10 standard report page 2

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 10 standard report page 3

2011 MONTHLY GIVING RESULTS ($ BILLIONS)

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 10 standard report page 4

national results forecast

NEXT MONTH FORECAST ($ BILLIONS) $28.95 $28.25

12 MONTH GIVING FORECAST ($ BILLIONS)

$28.95 $28.25 $28.11 $28.15 $27.91 $27.99 $27.32 $27.47

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 10 standard report page 5

CALENDAR YTD TREND ($ BILLIONS) $266.57 $286.97 last month

(versus same period prior year)

2011 past 3 months

(versus same period prior year)

(versus same period prior year)

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 10 standard report page 6

CALENDAR YEAR FORECAST ($ BILLIONS) $321.95 $343.33 this month

(versus same period last year)

2011 next 3 months

(versus same period last year)

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 10 standard report page 7

now available ...

Plus ... Trends and forecasts by State!

special introductory offer:

Schedule fundraising activities and campaigns

insight & analysis

insight & analysis

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 10 standard report page 10

insight & analysis

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 10 standard report page 11

insight & analysis

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 10 standard report page 12

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 10 standard report page 13

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 10 standard report page 14

Forecast one month 3 months 6 months 12 months

Reliability 99.5% 98-99% 94-95% 91-92%

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 10 standard report page 15

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 10 standard report page 16

How was the Atlas of Giving created?

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 10 standard report page 17

August 2010 to July 2011 one month 3 months 6 months 12 months

Forecast $26.51 $78.96 $156.64 $309.70

Actual $26.38 $77.61 $166.16 $339.50

Reliability 99.5% 98.3% 94.2% 91.2%

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 10 standard report page 18

Can the Atlas of Giving be customized for my organization?

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 10 standard report page 19

Will PhilanthroMAX perform special analytic projects for clients?

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 10 standard report page 20

Raise more money now.

coming in the next monthly report

Be the first to see the future of charitable giving!

info@atlasofgiving.com 2011 volume 10 standard report page 22

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