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Buenos Aires, Argentina 13 September 2011 Alexander Robart arobart@pacwestcp.com +1 202 670 8027
PacWest Consulting Partners 7941 Katy Freeway, Suite 309 Houston, TX 77024
Agenda
1) Introduction 2) NA Unconventional Story & Current State of Market 3) Supply Chain & Infrastructure Implications 4) International Unconventional Development 5) US Analogue: Bakken 6) About PacWest 7) Questions
PacWest is a boutique strategy consultancy and market intelligence firm that specializes in unconventional oil & gas
PacWest Business Overview
Agenda
1) Introduction 2) NA Unconventional Story & Current State of Market 3) Supply Chain & Infrastructure Implications 4) International Unconventional Development 5) US Analogue: Bakken 6) About PacWest 7) Questions
Since 1990, shale gas production has exploded from zero to close to 90 bcm it now accounts for nearly one-quarter of US production
US Shale Gas Production (bcm)
Source: EIA, Annual Outlook for 2011 PacWest 2011 | All rights reserved | 5
North American natural gas production is forecast to be driven largely by eight US and Canadian plays
North American Shale Gas Production Additions (Bcfpd)
By 2030, shale gas is forecast to make up nearly half of US natural gas production
US Dry Gas Production (Tcf/year)
There are now dozens of active plays in the US, but demand is straining the existing supply chain and infrastructure in five hot spots
Todays US Hot Spots
DJ Basin/Niobrara
Bakken
These five hot spots have a several characteristics in common, but one most importantly: liquids-rich!!
US Unconventional Trends
Liquids-rich
Oily or liquids-rich formations are the primary driver of US unconventional activity today; why? Oil and gas price divergence - Driven by simple economics: WTI = $88 / Gas = $4; associated gas med-term low gas price
International unconventional potential means 3-yr NA upmarket cycle could extend to 5+ yrs
On the demand side, US Land rig count has rebounded dramatically since 2009 lows, driving demand of pressure pumping services
US Land Rig Count (Aug 2009 Aug 2011)
2,500
2,000
Land Rigs
1,500
1,000
500
0 Nov-09 Nov-10 Sep-09 Feb-10 Sep-10 May-10 Feb-11 May-11 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jul-10 Dec-09 Dec-10 Apr-10 Apr-11 Jun-10 Oct-09 Mar-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-09 Aug-10 Jun-11 Jul-11
The focus on oily plays is evident in the US Land rig count: oil drilling activity finally overtook gas drilling activity in early 2011
US Land Rig Count Oil vs. Gas (Aug 2009 Aug 2011)
100% 90% 80% Percentage of Land Rigs 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sep-09 Feb-10 Sep-10 Nov-09 Nov-10 Feb-11 Jul-10 Dec-09 Dec-10 Apr-10 Apr-11 Jun-10 Oct-09 Mar-10 Oct-10 May-10 Mar-11 May-11 Aug-09 Aug-10 Jun-11 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jul-11
Oil Gas
The dominance of unconventionals is also evident in the US Land rig count: increases in directional drilling has driven the rig count
US Land Rig Count Dir/Hor vs. Vert (Aug 2009 Aug 2011)
2,500
Directional/Horizontal
2,000
Vertical
Land Rigs
1,500
1,000
500
0 Sep-09 Feb-10 Sep-10 Nov-09 Nov-10 Feb-11 Jul-10 Dec-09 Dec-10 Apr-10 Apr-11 Jun-10 Oct-09 Mar-10 Oct-10 May-10 Mar-11 May-11 Aug-09 Aug-10 Jun-11 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jul-11
1,950 1,709
2,020
2,089
Land Rigs
1,500
1,000
500
2011
Source: PacWest Analysis; Macquarie
2012
2013
2014
Backlog
New Completions
11,935,890 HHP 9% 735,890 HHP 3,401,640 HHP
8,534,250 HHP
100%
131%
11,200,000 HHP
Supply
Demand
The under-supply is not expected to be relieved until late 2012 or early 2013
Source: CIBC World Markets; Macquarie; PacWest analysis PacWest 2011 | All rights reserved | 14
Agenda
1) About PacWest 2) NA Unconventional Story & Current State of Market 3) Supply Chain & Infrastructure Implications 4) International Unconventional Development 5) US Analogue: Bakken 6) About PacWest 7) Questions
Unconventional O/G carries with it significant supply chain and infrastructure implications
Unconventional Supply Chain & Infrastructure Implications
Competition & Innovation Key Technology and innovation made shale a reality; requires entrepreneurial supply chain to optimize for each unique unconventional formation US has deepest and most entrepreneurial O/G supply chain, competitive environment Higher Service Intensity Shale demands increased products/services, requiring more people, more equipment, more consumables (water, proppant, chemicals), more transportation infrastructure Advanced Equipment and Experience Required Most equipment and people will be imported initially; how friendly is import regime? Infrastructure Availability Key Production profile of shale gas wells is shorter and steeper than for conventional, so drilling campaigns have to be closely coordinated with evacuation/take-away projects - Delay in infrastructure can significantly impact economics NA Supply Markets Tight Today NA rewards high; opportunity cost deploying equipment to uncertain region?
PacWest 2011 | All rights reserved | 16
A NA unconventional operator forecasts that pressure pumping, rigs, and water will drive nearly 60% of 3-year 3rd party costs across 3 plays
Operator 3rd Party Spend by Category (3-yr)
Stimulation/Completion = 39%
0 0 % of Total 3-Yr Spend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 39%
Global pressure pumping capacity is the single largest supply limitation to a rapid ramp up of global shale development
Unconventional Supply Chain & Infrastructure Implications
Source: Halliburton Analysis;, Barclays CEO Energy-Power Conference, Sep 2011 PacWest 2011 | All rights reserved | 18
Pressure pumping demands significant quantities of consumables, which complicate sourcing and logistics
Pressure Pumping Consumables
Water
Average Eagle Ford frac requires 3-5 million gallons (80,000120,000 bbls) of water Water must be sourced, potentially pre-treated, and transported to frac site via trucks or pipes 10-40% of water flows back over 30-day period what do you do with flowback? - Treat it? - Dispose it?
Source: PacWest analysis
Proppant
Average Bakken frac requires 1.5 million lbs of sand equivalent to 15 rail cars North American supply is already extremely tight, though many new projects coming online over next 18 months Logistics costs 50+% of sand costs within NA What are economic sources of proppant in Argentina?
Chemicals
Huge volumes of chemicals used during completion Chemicals blends used are highly specific to a particular formation key elements of innovation There are already shortages of some key chemical inputs Logistics of getting chemicals to site challenging in areas with limited infrastructure
Agenda
1) About PacWest 2) NA Unconventional Story & Current State of Market 3) Supply Chain & Infrastructure Implications 4) International Unconventional Development 5) US Analogue: Bakken 6) About PacWest 7) Questions
A recent study on global shale gas resources sized up resources across 14 regions outside the US
Global Shale Resources
Source: EIA, World Shale Gas Resources Report PacWest 2011 | All rights reserved | 21
A new study by the Baker Institute forecasts shale gas production across key regions through 2040
Global Shale Resource Estimates & Production Forecasts
Global Shale Resource Estimates (bcf) India
63 180 187 226 231 290 388
France
Poland Brazil Algeria Libya Canada S Africa Mexico Agentina USA China
-
India
60
France Poland Brazil Algeria Libya Canada Mexico Argentina USA China
50
40
30
485 681 774 862 1,275
20
10
200
400
600
800
0 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, World Shale Gas Resources Report; Baker Institute, Shale Gas and US National Security PacWest 2011 | All rights reserved | 22
However, more than just technically recoverable resources are required to successfully produce unconventionals; many critical risk factors
Non-Technical Risks Factors
Demand
Direct
The level of natural gas demand within the country and neighboring countries that can serve as consumers Quality of existing supply chain, number of rigs currently in-country, ease of entry for new players, etc. Number of existing domestic E&P firms, level of unconventional experience, ease of entry, etc. Regulatory structure, midstream/downstream demand dynamics, etc. Fragmentation, tax policies, government incentives for unconventional development, etc. Quality of existing midstream, ease of developing new infrastructure, etc. Water, population densities, political/social acceptance, etc.
PacWest 2011 | All rights reserved | 23
Besides Argentina, China and Poland have made the most progress in exploring their shale acreage
Shale Status: China & Poland
China
Multiple US majors active in China under JVs Early exploration work progressing in target basins Promising frac equipment JV relationships set up to supply manufacture frac pumps in China (Weir SPM and Shengli Highland) Strong incentives to encourage production Proven capability and commitment to building infrastructure
Poland
Multiple wells drilled by key operators (i.e. PGNiG) with gas shows from multiple wells SLB recently completed 13-stage frac for 3Legs Resources Exploration programs on-going with many more wells to drill under concession minimum requirements Capital beginning to flow to develop domestic supply chain Logistics/ transportation issues already emerging
Australia has made significant progress on CBM, while India has a long way to go on shale
Shale Status: Australia & India
Australia
Strong geology, economic incentives, regulatory framework Making significant progress towards significant CBM production Numerous domestic and international operators participating
India
Geology still uncertain SLB fraced wells for ONGC in West Bengal (Damodar Valley Basin) and Assam Economic incentives and regulatory framework still TBD DGH has delayed shale concession round several times currently targeted for 2012 Q1 Resources relatively small, but growing energy demand and limited domestic resources mean they are important Major challenges developing infrastructure in the country do not bode well for pace of development Will likely be 3-5 years behind China
PacWest 2011 | All rights reserved | 25
Significant supply chain bottlenecks emerging across multiple products/ services need for greater supply chain support
Infrastructure availability inland poses challenges Shale exploration still early stage Water sourcing for fracing will present challenges
There have been some recent roadblocks to shale production in select countries around the world
Global Shale Resources
Canada: Quebec put temporary moratorium in place Sweden: Has seen protests to Shells exploration activity UK: Has seen protests, then embrace by government; Cuadrilla put its exploration activities on hold after minor seismic activities during drilling
France: Recently put a shale moratorium in place, putting exploration activity in the highly promising Paris Basin on hold for now
India: Licensing round delayed until 2012 Q1 South Africa: Temporary moratorium in place pending assessment of environmental impact report government recently requested a new version of the report, delaying release another 6 months
PacWest 2011 | All rights reserved | 26
One thing to keep in mind is how supply chain needs differ for exploration versus development phases
Exploration vs. Development Phase
Exploration Phase
Data collection exercise Goal: collect enough data to prove that hydrocarbons are present Priorities: speed, logistical simplicity Willingness-to-pay: relatively high Staffing: in-country team small
Development Phase
Supply chain development and mgmt Goal: build a long-term supply base that will help you reduce costs and optimize production, while minimizing risks Priorities: cost management, diversification
Implications
Bundling strategies are common to simplify logistics, mgmt, admin Work with local equipment providers (i.e. rigs) if possible for speed Big 4 and majors often best positioned More likely to distribute work between majors and local players Willing to invest time/effort in building local supply base Fwd-looking sourcing strategies
PacWest 2011 | All rights reserved | 27
Agenda
1) About PacWest 2) NA Unconventional Story & Current State of Market 3) Supply Chain & Infrastructure Implications 4) International Unconventional Development 5) US Analogue: Bakken 6) About PacWest 7) Questions
The US Bakken play has boomed over last two years, placing significant strains on existing infrastructure and supply chain
The Bakken Formation US Analogue: Bakken
Formation Huge contiguous oil accumulation spanning North Dakota and Wyoming in the US, Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Canada - ~14,700 square-miles; largest ever assessed by USGS Challenges Existing infrastructure limited Has seen tremendous growth over last two years Growth has placed major strains on the supply chain
Since late-2009, the rig count has increased 2.5-times with counts forecast at 200+ rigs beyond this year
Bakken Rig Count & Forecast
Rig Count Dir/Hor vs. Vertical
Land Rigs Land Rigs
200
180 160 140 120
Directional/Horizontal Vertical
200
200 180
210
220
100
80 60 40 20 0
150
100
50
Dec-09
Aug-09
Aug-10
Dec-10
Oct-09
Oct-10
Jun-10
Apr-10
Feb-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: PacWest Analysis; Macquarie; Baker Hughes PacWest 2011 | All rights reserved | 30
Overwhelming demand in the Bakken is expected to lead to a significant under-supply of pressure pumping capacity for 2011
Sensitivity Analysis of 2011 Bakken Pressure Pumping Capacity Utilization
250%
Pressure Pumping Capacity Utilization
2011 completions
121% 21% 100%
100% utilization of 2011 capacity
161% 28%
35%
15
30
Demand will continue to outpace supply for pressure pumping capacity into 2012 in the Bakken
Sensitivity Analysis of 2012 Bakken Pressure Pumping Capacity Utilization
200% Pressure Pumping Capacity Utilization 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
152% 43%
146% 42%
140% 40%
114%
109%
104%
100%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Note: Sensitivity analysis assumes an average of 20 frac stages / well in 2012, a conservative estimate
Source: CIBC World Markets; Macquarie; PacWest analysis PacWest 2011 | All rights reserved | 32
Staffing experienced crews is a critical challenge faced by pressure pumping service providers
The Quality vs. Quantity Dilemma
Completion increases = HHP increases = Frac crew increases = Need for trained staff!! North American pressure pumping industry is expanding rapidly (~20% YoY increase 2010-2011) and needs to add new hires to meet expansion targets Major increases in completions require major increases in frac crews, for example: - Typical 25K HHP frac fleet in the Bakken requires 2-3 crews of 30 staff = 60 90 experienced employees
- PacWest forecasts an increase in frac fleets in the Bakken from 38 fleets (May 2011) to 52 fleets (year-end 2011) = 840-1,260 experienced employees
Fact: Critical driver of oilfield safety = experienced staff Problem: There are no more experienced field workers left; pumpers are forced to manage deployment of large numbers of inexperienced employees
Supply chain constraints are holding back the deployment of new equipment and the ability to consistently supply pumping services
Bakken Supply Chain Constraints Logistics
Railway (primarily BNSF) import capacity into the Bakken is limited for all products, particularly proppant due to the large volumes required (1 railcar has capacity of 200K lbs of proppant; average 3 million lbs frac job requires 15 railcars)
Proppant
Global proppant consumption has reached unprecedented levels and most domestic producers are essentially sold out of product Greatest constraint is in 20/40 raw sand
Guar
Demand has reached record highs and the guar supply chain is not highly responsive due to its length (90% of raw guar seed grown in rural India)
Equipment
Manufacturers of pumping equipment reporting order backlogs of up to 1 year
Labor
Local labor force in the Bakken is limited and unemployment is extremely low
PacWest 2011 | All rights reserved | 34
Bakken pressure pumping supply has been unable to keep pace with demand so well completion backlogs are growing
Days Required for D&C in North Dakota
Days between Well Spud and Completion 180 120
172 90 85 76 67
87
50
60 0
72
96 57
81
82 67
103 80 81
99 95 98 103
107
118
93
Sources: Montana Board of Oil & Gas; North Dakota Industrial Commission; PacWest analysis
7
45 29 12 17 13 48 17 15
7 25 15 6 7 5 18 6 5 10 7 6
3.0 3.4
3.6 4.5
5
34
25 27
Note: Well backlog is best estimate based on data from Montana and North Dakota oil/gas regulators; rig count is from April 2011 Sources: Montana Board of Oil & Gas; North Dakota Industrial Commission; PacWest analysis PacWest 2011 | All rights reserved | 36
Agenda
1) Introduction 2) NA Unconventional Story & Current State of Market 3) Supply Chain & Infrastructure Implications 4) International Unconventional Development 5) US Analogue: Bakken 6) About PacWest 7) Questions
A sampling of some of PacWests recent projects demonstrate our depth of experience in North American and international shale
Sample of Recent PacWest Consulting Projects
Conducted a study of operator sourcing strategies for a large independent North American unconventional E&P operator with a focus on 6 categories: drilling rigs, workover/service rigs, logistics, OCTG, water, and pressure pumping Conducted an innovative economic and strategic analysis of operator all-in shale water management costs over 20-year timeframe, from sourcing all the way through to treatment/disposal, for Bakken and Eagle Ford acreage Conducted a study of the frac pump market focused on supplier strategic plans, manufacturing capabilities, and supply chain structure Analyzed Bakken and Eagle Ford supply/demand and conducted demand planning exercise to develop new pressure pumping sourcing and contract strategy to avoid continued completion delays for a large independent E&P operator Developed Poland unconventional market entry, product/service, and JV strategy for a potential shale service company for a private equity client
We have resources in every major unconventional country/region to support international shale needs
PacWest 2011 | All rights reserved | 38
PacWest unique combination of strategic and analytical capabilities with strong market intelligence offer a unique service
PacWest Market Intelligence Capabilities
PacWest Difference
Key differentiator: turning market data and intelligence into meaningful and actionable information Transform volumes of disparate market data, industry insider activity, and fieldlevel intelligence and expert input into strategic and actionable recommendations for decision-makers Aggregate, organize and distill a wide range of data and intelligence to provide information to our clients that is comprehensive, focused, and strategic Analyze this information to assess its strategic implications and provide a clear path of action for each stakeholder
Agenda
1) Introduction 2) NA Unconventional Story & Current State of Market 3) Supply Chain & Infrastructure Implications 4) International Unconventional Development 5) US Analogue: Bakken 6) About PacWest 7) Questions