RWANDA Food Security Outlook

July to December 2011

Figure 1. Current food security outcomes, June 2011

Foodsecuritystressexpectedduringleanseason
KeyMessages
Prices of staple foods, which have been steadily rising since March, have started to stabilize following the harvest. However, prices remain much higher than the fiveyearaverageandlastyear. Despite these high prices, no acute food insecurity is anticipated following the ongoing Season B harvest (June toJuly). Starting in October, food security is expected to deteriorateinEasternagropastoralandsemiaridpastoral zones (Nyagatare, Gatsibo, Kayonza, Kirehe) and the East CongoNile Highland Subsistence Farming Zone (Nyabihu, Ngororero,partofMuhanga,NyamagabeandNyaruguru) as stocks from the Season B harvest decline and staple foodpricescontinuetorise.
Source:FEWSNET For more information on FEWS NETs Food Insecurity Severity Scale, please see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale

SeasonalCalendarandCriticalEvents

Source:FEWSNETRwanda

MostlikelyfoodsecurityscenarioJulytoDecember2011
Food security in the country has improved with season B harvests (June and July) underway. Most livelihood zones in RwandadependonbothrainyseasonAandBtosupportcroppingseasons,withasmallernumberofhouseholdsbenefiting fromtheseasonCmarshlandfarmingwhichrunsfromJunetoAugustandinvolvesmainlymaize,riceandbeans.Thefood securitysituationtypicallyremainsstablefromJulythroughSeptemberasseasonAstartswithlandpreparationandthen planting. This year prices of staples have been extremely high. The nominal wholesale price of maize in Kigali, for example, is 48 percenthigherthanthefiveyearaverageand118percenthigherthanlastyear(Figure3).Staplepriceshavestartedto stabilizeattheircurrenthighlevelfollowingtheJune/JulyharvestofSeasonBcrops.SeasonBharvests(JuneandJuly)are underwayandhaveimprovedfoodsecurity.
FEWS NET Rwanda Kigali, Rwanda Tel: +250 788303115 rwanda@fews.net

FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors views expressed in this 1717 H St NW publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Washington DC 20006 for International Development or the United States Government. info@fews.net www.fews.net/rwanda

RWANDA Food Security Outlook

Though rainfall deficits of 50 to 100 mm occurred during the February through July period in the western parts of the country, notably the East CongoNile Highland Subsistence Farming (Nyabihu, Ngororero, part of Muhanga, Nyamagabe and Nyaruguru), these deficits do not pose a serious risk to harvestsasrainfallinthisareaaverages1600mmperyear. ThemostlikelyscenariofortheJulytoSeptemberperiodis basedonthefollowingassumptions:

July to December 2011

Figure 3. Nominal wholesale price of maize in Kigali
450 400 350 300
USD/MT

250 200 150 100 50 0

MAY APR JUN JUL AUG MAR OCT NOV
2011

The September to January (Season A) rains will perform normally. Agriculture labor demand is expected to be average during the farming season between September andJanuary. Milk availability is expected to improve compared to current levels between October and December following therains. Livestockpricesandphysicalconditionareexpectedtobe normal following the expected normal rainy season between September and January. However, they are not expectedtoincreaseatthesamelevelasstaplepricesso livestock to cereal terms of trade are expected to deteriorate. In the Eastern pastoral and agropastoral zones, the ongoing provision of supplementary food and school feedingactivitiesareexpectedtocontinue Stocks from the current harvest are expected to last through September and rapidly decline afterwards until harvestfromSeasonAbeginsinJanuary. Prices are expected to continue to rise, beginning in OctoberasthestocksfromseasonBdecline,untilthenext harvestfromSeasonAbegininDecember.

JAN

FEB

20062010AVG

2010

Source: RATIN

Figure 3. Precipitation Anomaly (mm) Based on NOAA/CPC RFE Climatology Method, February 1 to July 6, 2011

Source: FEWS NET/NOAA East CongoNile Highland Subsistence Farming (Nyabihu, Ngororero,partofMuhanga,NyamagabeandNyaruguru) AccordingtotheComprehensiveFoodSecurityandVulnerabilityAnalysisandNutritionSurveyofRwandaconductedinJuly 2009,Nyabihu,NgororeroandNyaruguruNyamagabedistrictshadthehighestproportionofhouseholdswithpercentage of poor food consumption in the country. The main crops in these areas are tea, maize, sweet potatoes and beans. Although Season B crop assessment results are not available yet, Season B crop production is expected to be close to averagegiventhatseasonalrainfalltotalswere70to90percentofaverage.Poorhouseholdsareexpectedtomeetpartof their consumption requirement from their own production although they would still have to purchase beans, maize and cassavabeginninginAugustandSeptember. Considering the high but stable food prices during July to September, the close to average production this year and the availabilityofownproductiontosupplementpurchasedfoodallhouseholdswillmostlikelyremaingenerallyfoodsecure duringthisperiod.

DEC

SEP

Famine Early Warning Systems Network

RWANDA Food Security Outlook

July to December 2011

Figure 1. Estimated food security outcomes, July to Despite the anticipated close to average harvest, the very September 2011 smalllandholdingsofpoorhouseholdsmakeitimpossibleto produce enough food to feed households for longer than three months. Poor households therefore mostly rely on agriculturalwagelabor,mostlyinteaplantations,topurchase food. However, this year, the very high increase in staple prices have not been compensated by increase in wages, making it difficult for the poor households to meet their consumption requirements especially during the lean season (September and November). In addition to intensifying wage labor, poor households will also sell small livestock (rabbit, goats and pigs),increasethesaleoffirewoodandcharcoal,andinsome cases,workinconstructioninurbanareastobeabletomeet their consumption requirements. Despite these activities, households will not be able to fully meet their livelihood protection requirements and will face food security stress until the harvest of Season A crops begin in December/January. Source:FEWSNETRwanda Eastern agro and semiarid pastoral zones (Nyagatare, Figure 2. Estimated food security outcomes, October to December 2011 Gatsibo,Kayonza,Kirehe) In the Eastern Agro pastoral and Semi Arid Pastoral zone, harvests of maize and beans, which are among the most important crops consumed in the area, are expected to be below average this year due to late start of Season B rains (FebruarytoMay)especiallyinKayonzaandKirehedistricts. These same rains, after starting late continued in June and July(theytypicallyendinMay).Thecontinuationoftherains isexpectedtobebeneficialforthecontinuedregenerationof pasture and improved water availability that will lead to improved physical condition and productivity of livestock. Pricesoflivestockarealsoimproveseasonably. In addition to own production and the sale of livestock, agriculture labor is an important source of income for poor agro pastoralists in these areas. Payments for labor occur during the July/August cropping season andare both in kind Source:Source:FEWSNETRwanda and also in cash. Even if reduction in maize and beans productionisexpectedandstaplepricesareveryhighthisyear,allincomegroupsintheselivelihoodzoneswillmostlikely beabletomeettheirconsumptionrequirementsthroughownproduction,saleoflivestockandagriculturallaboruntilthe leanseasonbeginsinSeptember/October. Furtherincreasesinstaplepricesareexpectedasstocksfromthecurrentharvestdeclineandincreasedsalesoflivestockto beabletomeetconsumptionrequirementswillmostlikelyleadtoexcesssupplyandreductioninpriceoflivestock.Finally increasedsupplyofwagelabortothemarketisalsotoleadtodeclineinwages.Poorhouseholdsarethereforeexpectedto reduce the quantity and quality of food consumed during the period September to November and face stressed food securityuntilSeasonAharvestbeginsinDecember.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network

RWANDA Food Security Outlook

Table 1. Less likely events over the next six months that could change the above scenarios
Area Event

July to December 2011

Impact on food security outcomes Lack of agricultural labor during the production season, which is the main source of income for the poor, leading to increased levels of food insecurity. The increase in the price of staples will be much higher if the rains dont perform well because farmers and traders who currently have stocks will hold on to their stocks in anticipation of much higher price later in the season. Poor season A harvest in January When it occurs it destroys banana which is one of the staple crops in this area. Loss of banana will lead to loss of food for own consumption as well as for sale increasing the level of food insecurity in the affected areas.

Nationwide

Poor performance of the September to January Season A rains

Eastern agro-pastoral zone (Nyagatare and Gatsibo districts), Eastern semi-arid agropastoral zone (Kayonza,Gatsibo and Kirehe districts) Windstorm sometimes occurs in November in these areas.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network