National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook

National Interagency Fire Center Predictive Services Issued: November 1, 2011

Next Issue: December 1, 2011

Wildland Fire Outlook November 2011 through February 2012

The November 2011 through February 2012 significant fire potential outlooks are shown below. The primary factors influencing these outlooks are: La Nia: La Nia conditions continue to strengthen, approaching what would be considered a moderate event although not as strong as this time last year. Classic weather patterns of wet and cold in the northwest and warm and dry in the south are expected, although intensity of these cannot be directly correlated to the strength of La Nia. Drought: Although significant rainfall has occurred across Oklahoma and Texas during the past month, extreme to exceptional drought conditions continue to persist in both states as well as parts of Louisiana, New Mexico, Arizona, Kansas and Arkansas. Extreme drought also persists across most of Georgia and parts of South Carolina and Alabama. Fuel Dryness: Fuel conditions have improved significantly across the majority of the country. With weather trending toward winter time conditions and burning periods becoming the shortest of the year, fuel conditions are expected to continue to improve across the U.S. through December. In areas where drought persists fuels will likely begin to trend toward above normal dryness after the first of the year.

Note: Significant fire potential is defined as the likelihood that a wildland fire event will require mobilization of additional resources from outside the area in which the fire situation originates.

Past Weather and Drought

High pressure across the central U.S. in early October slowly gave way to a slow-moving trough that crossed from west to east over the course of the month. This pattern ushered in fall and brought much needed rain to the drought-stricken South but also more flooding to the Northeast. Temperatures remained warm for most of the country, generally two to six degree above normal. However, extreme warmth in the upper midwest and far northeast early in the month drove monthly average temperatures to six to eight degrees above normal across parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont. At the other extreme, the strong trough that settled into the eastern U.S. by mid-month dropped temperatures to much below normal over the south by as much two to four degrees with a parts of Alabama and Georgia plummeting more than four degrees below normal. The western states, especially in the Northwest, had pockets of temperatures two to four degrees below normal. Precipitation was mixed; some much needed and some in already saturated areas. The extreme to exceptional drought areas from central and southeast Texas to central Oklahoma received three to six inches of rain, which is 150 to 300 percent of normal for this 30 day period in some parts. However, this did very little at mitigate the long-term drought conditions. Eastern Florida and southern Georgia received much needed rain, up to 300 percent of normal. In the Ohio Valley and Northeast, rainfall in excess of 200 percent of normal caused flooding in areas saturdated from tropical rains earlier in the summer. The northern and central Rockies, the high plains of Kansas and Nebraska, and much of California received above normal precipitation, especially the high country where some of the first snows of the season occurred. Precipitation deficits continued across southern Arizona, New Mexico, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. Deficits were also beginning to cause problems in the Midwest from Missouri to Minnesota.
Departure from Normal Temperature (top) and Percent of Normal Precipitation (bottom) (from High Plains Regional Climate Center) U.S. Drought Monitor (top) and Drought Outlook (bottom) (from National Drought Mitigation Center and the Climate Prediction Center)

Weather and Climate Outlooks

As La Nia conditions increase in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, classical La Nia weather patterns are once again expected for the U.S. Temperatures for November are expected to be above normal across much of the Rocky Mountain region, the Plains and Mississippi Valley. Also, conditions are favorable for warmer than normal conditions on Alaskas North Slope. Below normal temperatures are expected in Florida and the southern half of Alaska. For December through February, warmer than normal conditions scale back slightly to only the southwest and south central states with cooler than normal conditions for the West Coast, southern Alaska and along the Canadian border from Idaho to the Great Lakes region. Precipitation trends favor drier than normal conditions in November for much of the southern half of the U.S. and north along the Mississippi Valley. Above normal precipitation is expected in the Northwest. Strong dry trends continue through December to February for the southern third of the nation with strong wetter than normal trends for much of the northern third of the nation.
Top row: One-month (November) outlook for temperature (left) and precipitation (right). Bottom row: Three month (December-February) outlook for temperatures (left) and precipitation (right). (from Climate Prediction Center/NOAA)

Nov 2011

Dec 2011-Feb 2012

Area Discussions
Alaska: Alaska is out of fire season. Expect normal conditions for Alaska for November through February. Northern Alaska has received enough snow such that it will remain in place through the winter. Throughout the southern half of the state, dustings of snow have occurred but there is little cover. By the end of the first week of November, southern Alaska usually has snow cover. Novembers forecast indicates above normal temperatures along the North Slope, and below normal temperatures in the southern third of Alaska. Weak to moderate La Nia conditions are expected to continue and intensify slightly as winter develops, similar to last year, but not as strong. Southwest: Normal significant fire potential is expected across the entire Southwest for November. This month will be the beginning of a more of a winter weather pattern. A continuation of a backdoor cold frontal pattern is expected into at least the first week or so of the month and it is likely that eastern and southeastern sections of the Area will see decreased temperatures and possibly a slight increase in precipitation. Thereafter, its likely that a more active pattern will take shape with somewhat frequent storm systems either glancing or enveloping much of the Southwest Area from the west and north. This will lead to normal to slightly above normal temperatures and normal to above normal precipitation across the northern third or so of the region with generally below normal precipitation across the southern sections of the Area. Normal significant fire potential is expected from December through February for the northwestern portion of the Southwest Area with above normal fire potential for the southeastern third of the Area. A trough of low pressure expected to be focused from the Pacific Northwest eastward into the northern plains indicates the best chances for normal to above normal precipitation will be across the northwestern quarter to third of the Area associated with strong onshore flow inland from the eastern Pacific and some deep storm systems translating east to northeastward across the Great Basin. Elsewhere, relatively mild and dry conditions are likely overall, especially across the southeastern third of the Area. Above normal significant fire potential is expected to be most significant during abnormally windy and warm periods. Northern Rockies: Normal significant fire potential is expected during November. October was generally wetter than normal across the Northern Rockies Area. Most of the abnormally dry conditions that had developed during the month of September were reversed by frequent wetting rainfall events that occurred during the second and third week of the month. Temperatures returned to seasonal levels and high elevation snow began accumulating on the peaks. The grasslands across the eastern half of the Area also received beneficial wetting rainfall, though not as much as western Montana and Idaho. Nevertheless fire danger Area wide returned to normal levels, which for the end of October are low. One thing of note is that the possibility remains that the grasslands could become receptive to burn again should an extended dry period develop. Current and expected weather patterns suggest that this is not likely since an active, somewhat wet pattern is expected during the month of November. Expect another La Nia fall and winter for the Northern Rockies. The Northern Rockies is normally out of fire season for these months. Expect a relatively cold and snowy winter. La Nia winters produce good snowpack for the Area. The winter of 2010-11 might be a good comparison year. All fire activity is human caused with unattended camp fires, escaped prescribed burns and escaped agricultural burning as the major ignition sources. Western Great Basin: The Western Great Basin is out of fire season. There are typically no significant fires during November. Fuels are still dry and during the last days of October fine fuels could carry fire in several areas of the state if an ignition occurred, especially in windy conditions. Much wetter and cooler weather expected during the first week of November will likely increase fuel moistures and drop Energy Release Components significantly, greatly reducing the threat of any fire activity. In addition, daylight hours have decreased more than two hours since the peak in August, and the possibility of more deep, cold low pressure systems moving through the state with wetting rains will increase as we move through the month. Temperatures over the last 30 days have been two to six degrees above normal across the northern half of Nevada and zero to three degrees above

normal over central and southern Nevada. Precipitation for the same time period was 100 to 400 percent of normal over portions of northwest, northeast and southeastern Nevada, but only 25 to 75 percent of normal over much of the central and southwestern state. Over the long term, according to the most recent 11-month Standardized Precipitation Index, the state has seen normal to well above normal precipitation. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks for November call for a small chance of above normal temperatures over far eastern Nevada and a small chance of below normal precipitation in the far southeastern corner of the state. Otherwise, equal chances of above or below normal precipitation for most of Nevada. No change to the drought status is expected during the month of November. The Western Great Basin typically has no significant fires during the December through February period. The current Seasonal U.S. Drought Outlook shows drought development in a small area of far southern Nevada over the next several months. The outlook from the CPC for this period is for equal chances of below and above normal temperatures, but for precipitation it indicates a small chance of below normal precipitation in the far south and a small chance of above normal precipitation in the northern half of the state. Eastern Great Basin: November weather is expected to be normal, which means generally cool and wet conditions leading to very low fire activity Area wide. Northwest: Temperatures were mixed across the Northwest Geographic Area in October. Much of Washington was a bit cooler than average as well as sections of western Oregon. Other areas experienced near or slightly above normal temperatures for the month. Precipitation increased significantly over the region early in October, ending fire season. Monthly totals, however, were mixed with some regions reporting above average rainfall for October while other areas experienced drier than typical conditions for the month as a whole. Fire danger indices dropped below values needed to sustain the risk of significant wildfires early in October due to the onset of autumn rains. Significant fire potential is unlikely to rise until midsummer in 2012. A developing La Nia event will likely influence a cool and moist spring for the region in 2012 which will likely delay the onset of fire season several weeks later than usual. The onset of cool and wet winter weather in autumn reduces the risk of significant fires to virtually nil across the Northwest Geographic Area. Winter of 2011-12 is not expected to be any different. Northern California and Hawaii: About three quarters of northern California was wetter than normal in October, though most of that precipitation occurred in the first third of the month. Temperatures averaged from near to a few degrees above normal. The first third of November is expected to have temperatures near to a little below seasonal normals, along with precipitation close to seasonal normals. For the second half of the month, temperatures may climb a bit relative to normal, but there is greater uncertainty regarding precipitation. The months first couple of days will have moderate to strong foehn winds in place for the Sacramento drainage southwestward toward the Mendocino coast and San Francisco Bay Area. Although there is a possibility of a large fire in November for northern California, it will need an abnormally strong wind in order to carry. The Hawaiian Islands continue to exhibit drought conditions. The westward sides of all the islands have potential for above normal significant fire activity. There is no expected departure from normal for December through February as La Nia returns to the Area. Most of the Hawaiian Islands remain in low to moderate drought. Recent fire activity and a continuation of the drought in the short term leads to expected above normal significant fire potential across most leeward areas.

Southern California: Normal significant fire potential is expected for Southern California through November. Near normal precipitation is expected for November with slightly below normal temperatures for the entire Area. One to two offshore wind events are likely during the month. Normal significant fire potential is also expected for Southern California from December through February. Temperatures are expected to be slightly below normal with near normal precipitation. Weather may become warmer and drier than average by February of 2012. Rocky Mountain: Normal significant fire potential is forecast over the Rocky Mountain Area during November. On average, large fire activity decreases significantly from October to November over the Area. Although long range outlooks for November indicate warmer and drier than average conditions over much of the Area, an active weather pattern in late October is anticipated to continue into early November with occasional opportunities for precipitation. Normal significant fire potential is expected to continue across much of the Rocky Mountain Area during the December through February period. Long range forecasts indicate average temperatures during the period. Wetter than average conditions are predicted over northern portions of the region, with below average precipitation constrained to southern Kansas. Eastern Area: Well above normal precipitation and soil moisture anomalies were in place at the end of October across portions of the coastal Mid-Atlantic States. This will lead to below normal late fall significant fire potential over these areas. Soil moisture and precipitation anomalies were also near to above normal across the southeastern Big Rivers and southern Ohio at the end of October. Increased precipitation trends are forecast over these areas through the late fall months and will likely lead to below normal late fall significant fire potential. Normal significant fire potential is expected elsewhere. A moderate to strong La Nia is forecast to continue developing through the 2011-12 winter. This will likely lead to above normal precipitation trends across the Ohio Valley as the winter months progress. This will lead to below normal significant fire potential across this area as the winter progresses into the early spring of 2012. Elsewhere, expect normal significant fire potential. Southern Area: West of the Mississippi River long term exceptional and historic drought conditions for Oklahoma and Texas remain in place and are expected to persist. Above normal significant fire potential will continue due to fuel moistures remaining near or worse than critical thresholds. Vegetation mortality and damage from long term drought will provide increased fuel loading as well. Seasonal increases in cold frontal activity, higher surface wind speeds, post cold frontal low humidities, and drier than average precipitation trends will all be exacerbated by a re-strengthening La Nia. Significant fire potential is expected to increase across southern Georgia and the coastal sections of North and South Carolina. Tropical moisture through the first half of November is expected to keep central and southern Florida below normal significant fire potential. Water tables still remain low in many marsh areas of the coastal Atlantic and areas of the Gulf Coast so these areas will be of concern as lightning remains a fall ignition threat. For the Okefenokee Swamp and the site of the previous Honey Prairie Fire, the threat for fire reemergence will remain in place. Post frontal humidities will drop into the 15 to 25 percent range, and allow for brief periods of increased initial attack. Snow in November in the northern Appalachian Mountains is anticipated to mitigate the threat of significant fires. Robust tropical easterlies, very wet ground conditions, and the threat of additional rain will keep Puerto Rico in below normal significant fire potential. An anticipated wider spread pattern of below average precipitation is expected to provide a drying condition during leaf drop across the bulk of the Southern Area. Combined with recent drying trends, this will increase significant fire potential for most of the South to above normal from December through February. No significant improvement for Texas or Oklahoma is expected. Above normal significant fire potential will continue over most of Texas, southern Oklahoma, western Louisiana, and southern Arkansas, but this condition will be present only in December and possibly into early January. January will see this area transition to lower significant fire potential as vigorous fronts

provide moisture. Most of Texas will drop to an average condition by February. Eastern Texas, most of Louisiana, eastern Oklahoma, and southern Arkansas will see significant fire potential drop to below average in February as moisture returns. Thus the significant divergence as above normal significant fire potential conditions present in east Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas make a major change toward normal or below normal conditions later in the winter.

Historic and Predicted Wildland Fires and Acres Burned Data

Based on data reported year-to-date in 2011, nationally there were 92 percent of the average numbers of fires burning approximately 133 percent of the average acres. Nationally, as of October 31, the 10 year average number of fires is 69,010 and the 10 year average acres burned is 5,926,661. The following table displays 10 year historical, current and predicted information pertaining to fire statistics.
OCT 31 Reported Year-To-Date AVG reported for NOV 0 0 72 8,894 125 2,525 207 11,112 58 1,845 34 7,147 10 675 98 18,987 278 52,662 1,041 16,183 2,463 49,987 4,425 221,825 Projection for NOV YTD+Forecast 513 293,019 Average Reported YTD NOV 30 Historical Low YTD NOV 30 Year of Low Historical High YTD NOV 30 707 6,645,978 4,823 1,100,936 4,931 934,081 5,317 872,800 4,269 1,166,327 3,264 2,411,428 1,258 1,346,341 5,474 974,368 6,089 1,078,973 18,062 209,253 46,264 2,506,781 93,378 9,726,875 Year of High

Fires Acres Fires Acres Fires Acres Fires Acres Fires Acres Fires Acres Fires Acres Fires Acres Fires Acres Fires Acres Fires Acres Fires Acres

513 293,019 2,035 283,333 2,731 22,899 4,453 104,290 2,008 194,531 1,808 451,792 795 426,093 3,738 2,101,844 2,685 458,730 5,339 167,759 37,716 3,724,893 63,821 8,229,183

ALASKA 498 308 1,897,118 62,647 NORTHWEST 2,063 3,626 2,163 293,964 490,242 122,385 NORTH OPS 2,831 4,100 2,937 23,086 225,356 34,741 SOUTH OPS 4,690 4,273 3,433 107,339 337,030 84,539 NORTHERN ROCKIES 2,119 2,864 1,730 196,436 398,451 38,430 EAST BASIN 1,832 2,387 1,654 471,855 670,735 89,182 WEST BASIN 819 815 451 452,108 409,971 17,579 SOUTHWEST 3,830 3,981 2,456 2,128,415 486,889 61,370 ROCKY MOUNTAIN 2,910 3,397 1,965 534,490 281,093 45,006 EASTERN AREA 5,967 13,576 11,019 311,337 132,695 66,335 SOUTHERN AREA 40,878 33,881 15,731 3,857,601 1,057,698 274,165 NATIONALLY 68,027 73,435 59,229 8,579,721 6,401,680 3,338,191

2006 2008 2010 2004 2010 2010 2006 2010 2010 2004 2008 2004 2008 2003 2010 2001 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2004 2003 2010

2004 2004 2006 2002 2001 2008 2007 2007 2006 2006 2001 2007 2006 2006 2006 2002 2003 2002 2001 2008 2006 2006 2006 2006

Prepared October 31, 2011 by the National Interagency Coordination Center Predictive Services Staff. The information above was obtained primarily from Incident Management Situation Reports from 2001-2011, however some inaccuracies and inconsistencies have been corrected. Therefore, the data may not reflect other historic records and should not be considered for official statistical purposes. Note: This national outlook and some geographic area assessments are currently available at the NICC and GACC websites. The GACC websites can also be accessed though the NICC webpage at: http://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/outlooks.htm