Suggested Solution for Applied Mathematics 2006 (II)

Paper II dx
2. (a) = kx(1000 − x) 1A
1 dy 1 du dt
1. (a) y= , =− 2 1A
u dx u dx dx
Substitute into E1 :
∫ x(1000 − x)
= k ∫ dt

1 du 3 1 x2 du 3 1 1 1
− + (
u 2 dx x u
) =
u2
, − u = −x 2
dx x
1
1000 ∫ ( +
x 1000 − x
)dx 1M

3 1
(b) Integrating factor = e
∫ −
x
dx
1A
[ln x − ln(1000 − x)] = kt + C 1A
1000

1 x
= e −3 ln x = 3
= Ae1000 kt , ( A = eC )
x 1000 − x

1 2
Multiple both sides of E 2 by 3
: At t = 0 , x = 400, ∴ A= 1M
x 3

1 du 3 1 x 2
3 dx
− 4 u=− 1M ∴ = e1000 kt
x x x 1000 − x 3

d u 1 u 1 2000 2000e1000 kt
( 3)=− , = −∫ dx x= (or x= ) 1A
dx x x x3 x 2 + 3e −1000 kt 3 + 2e1000 kt
= − ln x + C , where C is a constant.. 1A (b)
1 x
Put x = 1 , u = = −2 :
y 1A (montonic increasing)
1000
C = −2 1M 1A (correct x-intercept and
u x → 1000 as t → ∞ )
∴ 3
= − ln x − 2
x 1A (For having point of
400
1 −1 inflexion)
y= = 3 1A t
u x (ln x + 2) 0 Withhold if (a) being
incorrect

Page 1
Suggested Solution for Applied Mathematics 2006 (II)
f ( x) x 3 h( x ) ∞ ∞
3. (a) p( x) = = g ( x) + 4. (a) 1 = ∑ f ( x ) = 5∑ c x
g ( x) g ( x) x =1 x =1

h( x ) 5c
= g ( x) + x 3 u ( x) , where u ( x) = = and 0 < c < 1 1M
g ( x) 1− c
Put x = 0 : p(0) = g (0) + 0 = g (0) 1 1
c= 1A
2 3 6
p' ( x) = g ' ( x ) + 3x u ( x) + x u ' ( x)
1M
Put x = 0 : p' (0) = g ' (0) + 0 = g ' (0) (b) P(more than one winner)
2 2 3 = 1 − P(1)
p" ( x) = g " ( x) + 6 xu ( x) + 3x u ' ( x) + 3x u ' ( x ) + x u" ( x)
Put x = 0 : p" (0) = g" (0) + 0 = g" (0) 1 5
= 1−
3 6
(b) f ( x) = ( x + 4) + x (2 x − 3)
Let f ( x) = 2 x 4 − 3x 3 + x + 4 , g ( x) = x + 4 and h( x) = 2 x − 3 1
= 1A
They are twice differentiable functions of x. 6
f ( x) = [ g ( x)] 2 + x 3 h( x ) (c) Expected amount of money won by winner
Using (a), p(0) = g (0) = 2 ∞ f (i )
= 30000∑ 1M
−1 i =1 i
1 1
g ' ( x) = ( x + 4) 2 , p ' ( 0) = g ' ( 0) = ∞ ∞
2 4 5 1 1 1
= 30000∑ ( ) i = 150000∑ ( ) i
−3 1M i =1 i 6 i =1 i 6
1 2 1
g " ( x ) = − ( x + 4) , p" (0) = g" (0) = −
4 32 ∞
1 −1 i
= 150000∑ (−1) i ( ) 1M
Taylor’s expansion of p(x) about x = 0 i =1 i 6
∞
x2 1 −1
= p(0) + p ' (0) x + p" (0) + ... 1M = −150000∑ (−1) i −1 ( ) i
2 i =1 i 6

1 1 2 1
= 2+ x− x + ... 1A = −150000 ln(1 − )
4 64 6
Alternative Method = $27348 (correct to the nearest dollar) 1A
One may directly differentiate p(x) up to second derivatives and put x = 0 .

Page 2
Suggested Solution for Applied Mathematics 2006 (II)
5. (a) 0.75 = P( M ∪ N ) = P(M) + P(N) – P( M ∩ N ) --- <1> 1A 6. (a) Let E1 be the event that Boris will win the game.
0.8 = P( M ∪ N ' ) = P(M) + P( N ' ) – P( M ∩ N ' ) --- <2> P( E1 ) = P(Boris hits zone I in all the 3 throws) ×
<1> + <2>: P(Andy hits zone II once and misses twice, or misses the dart in
2P(M) + P(N) + P( N ' )– P( M ∩ N )– P( M ∩ N ' ) = 0.75 + 0.8 1M all the 3 throws)
2P(M) + 1 –P(M) = 1.55 = 0.7 3 × [ 3 C1 (0.2)(0.1) 2 + (0.1) 3 ] 1M + 1A
i.e. P(M) = 0.55 1 = 0.002401 ( ≈ 0.0024) 1A
(b) If M and N are mutually exclusive, (b) Let E 2 be the event that Andy’s point total is the lowest.
P( M ∩ N ) = 0 1M P( E1 ∩ E 2 )
From <1>: 0.55 + P(N) – 0 = 0.75 = P(Andy misses the dart in the 3 throws) ×
P(N) = 0.2 1A P(Boris and Chris hit zone I in all the throws)
(c) If M and N are independent, = 0.13 × 0.7 3 × 0.7 3 1A
P( M ∩ N ) = P(M) P(N) 1M
From <1>: 0.75 = P(M) + P(N) – P(M) P(N) P( E 2 | E1 )
= 0.55 + P(N) – 0.55 P(N) P( E 2 ∩ E1 )
=
4 P( E1 )
P(N) = ( ≈ 0.4444 ) 1A
9 0.13 × 0.7 3 × 0.7 3
= 1M
0.002401
= 0.049 1A

Page 3
Suggested Solution for Applied Mathematics 2006 (II)
( x − 1)( x − 2) ( x − 0)( x − 2) ( x − 0)( x − 1) 2
7. (a) (i) p ( x ) = f (0 )
(0 − 1)(0 − 2)
+ f (1)
(1 − 0)(1 − 2)
+ f (2)
(2 − 0)(2 − 1)
(iii) ∫0 xf ( x)dx
1M 2
≈ ∫0 xp( x)dx
f (0) 2 f ( 2) 2
= ( x − 3x + 2) + f (1)( x 2 − 2 x) + ( x − x) 1A
2 2 2 f ( 0) 3 f ( 2) 3
=∫ [ ( x − 3x 2 + 2 x) + f (1)( x 3 − 2 x 2 ) + ( x − x 2 )]dx 1M
0 2 2
f (0 ) f ( 2) 2 3 f ( 0) f (2)
=( − f (1) + )x − ( − 2 f (1) + ) x + f (0 )
2 2 2 2 2
= [2 f (1) + f (2)] 1
(ii) Error in using p(x) as an approximation to f (x) in [0, 2]: 3
( 3)
f ( ξ) 2 1 1
E ( x) = x( x − 1)( x − 2) for some ξ ∈ [0, 2] 1A (b) (i) I≈ [2 tan + tan ] 1A
3! 3 4 2
[withhold if use x instead of ξ ] ≈ 0.7047 1A
3 2
Let y = x( x − 1)( x − 2) = x = −3x + 2 x π
(ii) Let f ( x) = tan
dy 4
= 3x 2 − 6 x + 2
dx 1 x
f ' ( x) = sec 2
dy 3 4 4
= 0 gives x = 1± 1M
dx 3 1 x x
f " ( x) = tan sec 2
3 8 4 4
When x = 1+ , y ≈ −0.384900
3 (3) 1 x x
f ( x) = sec 2 (1 + 3 tan 2 )
3 32 4 4
When x = 1− , y ≈ 0.384900
3 x 1 x 1
For all x in [0, 2], tan ≤ tan and sec ≤ sec 1M
When x = 0 or 2, y=0 4 2 4 2
∴ the greatest value of | y | in [0, 2] is 0.384900 1A 1 1 1
(3)
|f ( x ) |≤ (sec 2 )(1 + 3 tan 2 )
m 32 2 2
| E ( x) |≤ (0.384900) ≈ 0.06415m < 0.07m 1
3! ≈ 0.076906

Page 4
Suggested Solution for Applied Mathematics 2006 (II)
By (a) (ii), | E ( x) |< 0.06415(0.076906) (using (a) (ii)) 8. (a) (i) Let f (x) = x − g (x)
≈ 0.004934 1A , which is differentiable and continuous in I. 1M
or < 0.07(0.076906) ≈ 0.00538 Since g (x) lies in I for any x in I, a ≤ g ( x) ≤ b for any x in I.

2 f (a) = a − g (a) ≤ 0
| I − J |= ∫0 [ xf ( x) − xp( x)]dx f (b) = b − g (b) ≥ 0 1

2 So there exists at least one root in I.

≤ ∫ x[ f ( x) − p ( x)] dx
0 f ' ( x) = 1 − g ' ( x)

2 Since | g ' ( x) |≤ m < 1 for any x in I,

= ∫ | x || E ( x) | dx
0 f ' ( x) > 0 for any x in I.

2 f (x) is strictly increasing in I. 1

< 0.004934∫ xdx 1M
0 Therefore, E1 has exactly one root in I.
= 0.004934 (2) (ii) | x n − r |=| g ( x n −1 ) − g (r ) |
≈ 0.0099 1A =| g ' (ξ) || x n −1 − r | ,
where ξ lies between x n −1 and r. 1A

2 [withhold if using x n −1 or r instead of ξ ]

or < 0.00538 ∫ xdx ≈ 0.0108
0 ≤ m | x n −1 − r |
≤ m 2 | x n −2 − r |
M
≤ m n | x0 − r | 1A
Since x 0 and r lie in I, | x 0 − r |≤| b − a |
Therefore, | x n − r |≤ m n (b − a) . 1

Page 5
Suggested Solution for Applied Mathematics 2006 (II)
(b) (i) Let g ( x) = e x − 2 and I = [−2, − 1] . e x +1
x (iii) h' ( x ) =
g (x) is differentiable in I. g ' ( x) = e > 0 for all x ∈ I . 2
Therefore, g (x) is increasing in I. 1M e −1 + 1
| h' ( x ) |≤ ≈ 0.683940 < 1
So, g (−2) ≤ g ( x) ≤ g (−1) in I. 2
– 1.8647 ≤ g (x) ≤ – 1.6321 ∴ the iterates generated by F2 converge to s. 1M
Therefore, g (x) lies in I for all x in I. 1A As 0.36788 < 0.68394,
Moreover, g ' ( x) = e x ≤ e −1 = 0.367879 < 1 for all x in I. 1 By (*), the iterates generated by F2 are less likely to
So all the required conditions in (a) are satisfied. converge to s at a faster rate than those by F1 . 1A
Using (a), E 2 has exactly one root in I and
| x n − s |≤ m n [−1 − (−2)]
As 0 < m < 1 , m n → 0 as n becomes very large.
So the iterates converges to s for any initial guess in [ −2, − 1 ]. 1
(ii) Put m = 0.367879:
| x n − s |≤ (0.367879) n [−1 − (−2)] < 0.001 1M
n(ln 0.367879) < ln 0.001 , n > 6.91 1A
Therefore, N = 7 .
n xn
0 – 1.5
1 – 1.776870
2 – 1.830833
3 – 1.839720
4 – 1.841138
5 – 1.841363
6 – 1.841399
7 – 1.841405
∴ x 7 = −1.84 (correct to 2 d.p.) 1A

Page 6
Suggested Solution for Applied Mathematics 2006 (II)

dx 0.12
9. (a) = −0.1x + 0.6 z --- <1> Particular integral: xp = = 0 .6
dt 0 .2

dy x = xc + x p
= −0.2 y + 0.1x --- <2> 1A+ 1A
dt = Ae −0.4t + Be −0.5t + 0.6
dz x& = −0.4 Ae −0.4t − 0.5Be −0.5t
= −0.6 z + 0.2 y --- <3>
dt At t = 0 , x = 0.7 , y = 0.3 , z = 0 .
x+ y + z =1 --- <4> dx
= −0.1x + 0.6 z = −0.07
(b) Substitute <4> into <1>: dt
1M
dx  A + B + 0 .6 = 0 .7
= −0.1x + 0.6(1 − x − y ) 1M 
dt − 0.4 A − 0.5B = −0.07
= −0.7 x − 0.6 y + 0.6 On solving, A = −0.2 , B = 0.3

d2x dx dy ∴ x = −0.2e −0.4t + 0.3e −0.5t + 0.6 1A

2
= −0.7 − 0 .6 1M
dt dt −0.4t −0.5t
dt (c) x = −0.2e + 0.3e + 0 .6
dx dx
= −0.7 − 0.6(0.1x − 0.2 y ) = 0.08e − 0.4t − 0.15e −0.5t
dt dt
1M
dx dx 15
= −0.7 − 0.06 x − 0.2 y ( + 0.7 x − 0.6) =0 gives t = 10 ln ( ≈ 6.286 ) 1M
dt dt 8

dx d2x
= −0.9 − 0.2 x + 0.12 = −0.032e −0.4t + 0.075e −0.5t
dt dt 2
1M
2 2
d x dx 15 d x
2
+ 0.9 + 0.2 x = 0.12 1 At t = 10 ln , ≈ 6.47 ×10 − 4 > 0
dt dt 8 dt 2
As x is continuous, x reaches the least value at t = 6.3 (correct to 2
Characteristic equation: λ2 + 0.9λ + 0.2 = 0 significant figures). 1A
λ = −0.4 or −0.5 1M The number of individuals in the population who are healthy attains
Complementary solution: x c = Ae −0.4t + Be −0.5t the least value after 6.3 weeks.
Where A and B are constants.

Page 7
Suggested Solution for Applied Mathematics 2006 (II)
(d) x = −0.2e −0.4t + 0.3e −0.5t + 0.6 π π
10. (a) 1 = ∫ f ( x)dx = ∫ k sin xdx 1A
0 0
lim x = 0 + 0 + 0.6 1M
t →∞
= [− k cos x] 0π
= 0.6 = 2k

dx 1
= 0.08e − 0.4t − 0.15e −0.5t k= 1A
dt 2

dx (b) Let E1 , E 2 and E 3 denote the events that the target appears in
lim =0
t →∞ dt Parts I, II and III respectively in a shot.

5 dx 5 2π
From <1>, z = ( + 0.1x) → [0 + 0.1(0.6)] = 0.1 (as t → ∞ ) 1M 3
3 dt 3 P( E 2 ) = ∫π f ( x)dx 1M
Since x+ y + z =1 3

y = 1− x − z 2π
 1  3
→ 1 − 0.6 − 0.1 = 0.3 as t → ∞ = − cos x 
 2 π
As t becomes large, the number of individuals in the population who 3

are healthy, infected and sick approach 0.6, 0.3 and 0.1 millions = 0.5 1
respectively. 1A (c) Let T be the event that Carol hits the target in a certain shot.
P(T ' ) = P (T ' | E 2 ) P( E 2 ) + P(T ' | E 2 ' ) P( E 2 ' ) 1M
= 0.5(1 − 0.9) + (1 − 0.5)(1 − 0.6)
= 0.25
Probability
= P( E 2 | T ' )
P( E 2 ∩ T ' )
= 1M
P(T ' )

0.5(1 − 0.9)
=
0.25
= 0.2 1A

Page 8
Suggested Solution for Applied Mathematics 2006 (II)
(d) P(T ) = 1 − P (T ' ) [Or = 0.5(0.9) + (1 – 0.5)(0.6)] 1M 11. (a) Let X (in kg) denote the weight loss of a participant of the programme.
= 1 – 0.25 X ~ N (6, 8 2 )
= 0.75 Probability = P( X < 0 )
Let T100 be the number of successful trials in 100 shots. 0−6
= P( Z < ) 1A
T100 ~ Bin (100, 0.75) 8
Using normal approximation, = P( Z < −0.75 )= 0.2266 1A
T100 ~ N (100(0.75), 100(0.75)(1 – 0.75)) 1M 64
(b) (i) Under H 0 , X ~ N (0, )
~ N (75, 18.75) n
P(T100 ≥ 85) c 64
P( X > | X ~ N (0, )) = 0.05 1A
85 − 0.5 − 75 n n
= P( Z ≥ ) 1M
18.75 c
−0
(For correction factor) n
P( Z > ) = 0.05 1M
= P( Z ≥ 2.1939) 8/ n

= 0.0141 1A c n
( ) = 1.645 , c = 13.16 1
(e) P(T ∩ E 2 ) = 0.5 × 0.9 1A n 8
= 0.45 (ii) P(Type II error)
Let T10 be the number of successful trials in 10 shots. c 82
= P( X ≤ | X ~ N (µ, ) ), where µ > 0 1A
T10 ~ Bin (10, 0.45) n n
P(T10 < 8) c 13.16
−µ −µ
= 1 − P(T10 ≥ 8) 1M n n
= P( Z ≤ ) = P( Z ≤ ) (using (i))
= 1 −10 C 8 (0.45) 8 (1 − 0.45) 2 − 10 C 9 (0.45) 9 (1 − 0.45) − (0.45)10 1M 8/ n 8/ n

= 0.9726 1A µ n
= P( Z ≤ 1.645 − ) 1A
8

µ n
As n increases, 1.645 − decreases.
8
P(Type II error) decreases as n increases. 1

Page 9
Suggested Solution for Applied Mathematics 2006 (II)
9 c 82
∑ xi P( X ≤
n
| X ~ N (6,
n
) ) ≤ 0.01 1M
i =1
(iii) (1) x=
9
c
−6
1 n
= (2 + 3 + 0 + 1 − 7 + 8 + 6 + 1 − 1) P( Z ≤ ) ≤ 0.01
9 8/ n

13 c−6 n
= ≈ 1.4444 ≤ – 2.3267
9 8
90% confidence interval for µ Since c = 13.16,
σ 13.16 − 6 n
= ( x ± 1.645 ) 1M ≤ – 2.3267
n 8
8 n ≥ 28.04
= (1.4444 ± 1.645( ))
9
= (– 2.94, 5.83) (correct to 2 d.p.) 1A (3) Mean of the combined sample
(2) Put µ = 6 . 1 36
=x = ∑ xi
36 i =1
From (b) (ii),

6 n 13 + 27 × 2.3
P(Type II error) = P( Z ≤ 1.645 − ) ≤ 0.01 1M = 1M
8 36

3 n ≈ 2.0861
1.645 − ≤ – 2.3267
4 13.16
c= = 2.1933
n ≥ 28.04 36
Least number of additional participants to be sampled As x < c , H 0 is not rejected at the 5% significant level.
= 29 – 9 (OR There is no evidence at the 5% significant level that the
= 20 1A programme is effective) 1M + 1A

Page 10
Suggested Solution for Applied Mathematics 2006 (II)

Alternative Solution
H0 : µ = 0
H1 : µ > 0

13 + 27 × 2.3
X = 1M
36
≈ 2.0861

82
Under H 0 , X ~ N (0, )
36

X −µ
Z=
σ/ n
2.0861 − 0
=
8 / 36
= 1.5646 < 1.645
∴ H 0 is accepted at the 5% significant level. 1M + 1A

Page 11