China Threat in Space and Cyber Space

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China Threat in Space and Cyber Space

Point Paper Final Robert Lai Contemporary International ProblemsPOL300 September 5, 2008

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According to the hearing of China's Proliferation Practices and the Development of its Cyber and Space Warfare Capabilities before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on May 20, 2008, Chinas increasing capabilities in cyber and space warfare have posed growing threats to the national interest of the United States (China's Proliferation Practices and the Development of its Cyber and Space Warfare Capabilities, 2008). China has attained shashoujian (killer weapon) as a deterrent tool against the United States, and the shashoujian will be very effective as a secret weapon for asymmetric attack to the critical infrastructure of the United States (Bruzdzinski). Chinas shashoujian means more than assassins mace that it is a vital concept on combining Western technology with Eastern wisdom into an array of secret weapons and military doctrines. China is taking the stance that the best defense is an offense, where its space and cyber space program (elements of shashoujian) are focused on offensive strategies. The Iraq Wars, Kosovo, and Afghanistan wars resulted in China realizing US overwhelming superiority in both space and cyber space. However, the US military C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) has a dependence on space and cyber space, which make the two domains the most vulnerable. In Sun Tzus Art of War, one of the principles is to strike where the enemy is most vulnerable. China understands this strategy profoundly and develops capabilities in parallel to exploit these vulnerabilities. Current Issues of the China Threat in Space China understands that the US supremacy in space with the advanced satellite system will have an advantage over Chinas military. On the other hand, the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) of China is convinced that the US strength in space can become its Achilles heel as well (Wortzel, 2003a). The space program of China is dual-use for civilian and military, and its military objective is secretive and unknown to the US. In the past five years, China has made significant milestones in becoming the third country after the United States and Russia to have successfully launched manned spacecrafts two times; the successful launch of Change-1 orbiting the moon has set the stage for the Moon Exploration Project (Yuan, 2008). The challenge from China to US in space is inevitable. Opinions and details of this issue: The successful anti-satellite (ASAT) missile test event on January 17, 2007, showed that China has already mastered the capability in counter-space by using ballistic missiles to shoot down spy satellites in low earth orbit (Covault, 2007). Chinas ASAT test has just aligned with its plan to decapitate, paralyze, disintegrate, and blind the adversary (Bruzdzinski). This ASAT test demonstrated the vulnerability of US satellites in low earth-orbit used for military communication, GPS navigation for smart bombs and troops, and for real-time surveillance (U.S. official: Chinese test missile obliterates satellite - CNN.com, 2007). The ASAT test caught the U.S. by surprise since it was considered a military hedge to the U.S. space dominance (Hagt, 2007). Beijing will develop a high-powered laser weapon in the near future to destroy enemy satellites (Chinese Anti-Satellite Capabilities). In January, 2006, Pentagon confirmed that China beamed a ground-based laser at a U.S. spy

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satellite over its territory, but no details were provided about any damage to the spy satellite. Does China have the high-powered laser capability to attack a satellite in low earth orbit? No, there are still technical challenges (e.g., atmospheric attenuation and turbulence) to overcome before China can utilize high-powered laser for space target. However, the incident has signaled a fact that China has the capabilities to track the target in low earth orbit with lowerpowered laser beam. This is an important prerequisite for the high-powered laser attack to follow. According to the "Operational Implications of Laser Weapons" paper by Richard J. Dunn, III, U.S. experiments have already demonstrated that satellites located hundreds of kilometers up are vulnerable to high energy lasers (Richard J. Dunn, III, 2005). China is pursuing a multi-dimensional counter-space programs to develop counter-space capabilities that could be used to deny others (e.g., U.S., Japan) access to, or operations in outer space (Donald A. Manley, 2008). On April 19, 2004, China launched its first nanotechnology-based satellite, Nano-satellite I, which was only 55 pounds (Smith, 2004). It is obvious that the nano-satellite is one of the shashoujian for jamming or destroying enemy satellite in kinetic collision mode. To make the matter even worst, China can deploy multiple nanosatellites and form distributed attack on multiple U.S. space assets, which can be effective and inexpensive. China has revealed its Air Launched Launch Vehicle model first at the 2006 Zhuhai Airshow (Tellis, 2008). In additional, China has built solid fueled mobile space launch vehicle (SLV) to support rapid nanosatellites launching. Space Pearl Harbor might be the U.S. worst nightmare since the threat is real. Chinas moon program is a comprehensive program that includes a lander, a sample return mission, human mission, and eventual permanent space station (Reynolds, 2008). Nationalism is a major factor since Chinese have thousands of years of passion about the moon. Change, a Chinese goddess, flew to the moon to live a happier life there according to Chinese legend (Rong, 2007). The MidAutumn Festival, occurs at the fifteenth of the eighth month in Chinese Lunar Calendar, that has always been the most important traditional holiday for Chinese; it is also the festival for harvest in the Autumn and family reunion. There are countless of legends, folklores, and mythologies that admire the moon and the goddess of moon, Change, in Chinese history. Meeting with Change on the moon is not only the dream of many Chinese poets, but all Chinese share the same dream. Chinese government has known that its red flag on the moon means a lot for the pride of its nation; it also means the mandate from heaven for the communist party to rule the country, and becomes a superpower in space. China is growing its second generation of talents in science and technology from the space program. 80% of 10,000 Chinese engineers and technicians working in the China manned space program are under 40 (Xinhua, 2003). The Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) has a role in Chinas space activities, where its militaristic intent is unknown. Chinas manned and lunar space programs have prerequisites in tracking and identifying satellites, which could provide them the effective and precise physical attacks in outer space (Donald A. Manley, 2008). China has the resolve to challenge the U.S. dominance in space.

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Current Issues of the China Threat in Cyber Space Cyber warfare is no longer a concept, but rather a reality. Recently, Russia conducted cyber warfare against Georgia before the Russian troop advance. The incident of the cyber attack on Estonia in the spring of 2007 has signaled that cyber space has become a virtual battlefield. There have been many incidents of hacking by Chinese to the U.S. defense and civilian government networks, but China denies the allegation since source IP addresses of the attacker origin in China might be spoofed. However, Kevin Coleman, a Senior Fellow at the Technolytics Institute, said that China has the intent and technological capabilities necessary to carry out a cyber attack anywhere in the world at any time (Coleman, 2008). The critical infrastructure of the U.S. that include financial network, communication, internet, Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition System (SCADA) controlled water and power grids, and defense network are all vulnerable to cyber attack. A digital Pearl Harbor attack is possible. Opinions and details of this issue: The Chinese are the first to use cyber-attacks for political and military goals, says James Mulvenon, an expert on China's military and director of the Center for Intelligence and Research in Washington (Marquand & Arnoldy). Toshi Yoshihara, a Research Fellow and resident expert on security issues in the AsiaPacific region at the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, has pointed out that China has demonstrated an intense fascination with information warfare (IW) in his monograph Chinese Information Warfare: A Phantom Menace or Emerging Threat (Yoshihara, 2001). The transformations of the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) and its interest in Information Warfare (IW) theory and practice coupled with the principles of the Art of War by Sun Tzu should signal an alarm call to the U.S. (Thomas, 2008). According to an annual report issued by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, titled "Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2007," the PLA has developed a comprehensive principle of Computer Network Operations (CNO) computer network attack, computer network defense, and computer network exploitation (Peter, 2007). The PLAs CNO is methodical in offense as well as defense. In PLA, there are information warfare reserve and militia units, which have the capability to launch pre-emptive attacks against enemy computer networks (Rogin, 2006). In Like Adding Wings to the Tiger, Timothy L. Thomas stated Chinese Information Warfare (IW) theory is strongly influenced by Chinese military art (Thomas, 2008). The recent hackings to the U.S. Government appeared to have originated within the People Republic of China. The code name, Titan Rain, hacking was suspected to be a structured cyber attack by highly skillful hackers with Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) involvement (Thornburgh, 2005a, 2005b). These successful attacks proved that the PLAs net militia units have reached high level of technological sophistication in hacking. The new doctrine of the PLA described as pressure point warfarethe attacking of specific nodes to leave the

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adversary paralyzed, that seems to be adopted in these hackings have caused some agencies networks to go out of service (Norton-Taylor, 2007). In November, 2006, Chinese hackers prompted Navy college site closure (Chinese hackers prompt Navy college site closure, 2006). The Chinese hackers increase their interest in getting information on military network infrastructure. In addition, the Defense Information Systems Agencys Nonclassified Internet Protocol Router Network (NIPRNET) is a prime target for many hackers to exploit. The PLA understands that the attacks on NIPRNET might effectively impact the militarys logistics system (China's Proliferation Practices and the Development of its Cyber and Space Warfare Capabilities, 2008). Data-mining might even infer classified information from unclassified network. With simultaneous asymmetrical cyber attacks, China military might create a digital 9/11 attack to bring down the critical network infrastructure of the U.S. (Brookes, 2005). Botnet works like sleeper cells in a collection of compromised computer (also known as zombie) on internet that can be remotely-controlled to attack other peer computers on the network in a distributed fashion. PLA will apply this technique in its cyber offense operation. Two PLA air force officials, Sun Yiming and Yang Liping, have drafted a detailed plan to disable U.S. aircraft battle carrier fleet with a devastating cyber attack, which might use botnet, according to a Pentagon report obtained by The Times (Reid, 2007). Dr. Jiang Mianheng graduated from Drexel in 1991 with a doctorate in Electrical Engineering who is the son of Former President Jiang Zeming has strong association between the State Key Laboratory of Information Security (SKLOIS) and Dr. Jane Yan of Venus Tech (the elite hacking group) (The VeriSign iDefense Intelligence Operations Team, 2008). PLA Net Militia units have enlisted members from academia, private sectors, and state entities. SKLOIS researchers led by Dr. Xiaoyun Wang broke the MD5 and SHA-1 encryption algorithm and announced the hash collision attacks at the CRYPTO 2004 conference (Cryptography Research - Hash Collision Q&A). Courses of action

If the space is considered as the fourth domain after air, land, and sea, then cyber space is the fifth domain for the U.S. military. In a net-centric warfare, the five domains should be viewed as one integral system, since they are interconnected functionally to support superiority. Both space and cyber space domains are very closely related since one complements the other. The space dominance provides widespread military capabilities (e.g., navigation, surveillance, command and control) and economic potential to the U.S. The cyber space links all critical infrastructures including the support to the defense network. These two domains are vital to the U.S. national interest. China is aggressive to challenge the space dominance and information superiority of the U.S. The U.S. should consider the following courses of action in order to counter the China emerging threat in space and cyber space. Work out a space arms control proposals in accordance with the U.S. Policy on the prevention of an arms race in outer space (PAROS) to contain China, Russia,

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and others. Without a multilateral agreement to ban the development of space weapons, it might encourage the space arms race. PAROS might make China improve its transparency on its space program (Logan, 2008). Yet, PAROS is a double-edged sword that it also prevents the U.S. from developing space weapon. In the worst case, the negotiation process might put pressure on China. Containment might not work well for China since it has demonstrated its strong determination to succeed in its space program. Engagement might bring in cooperation instead of confrontation. If U.S. can partner with Russia in the international space station program, then it should include China to join the partnership. There are two benefits to cooperating with China in space program. First, it keeps China dependent on U.S. technology instead of letting China develop space technologies unilaterally. Second, U.S. can have leverage in other areas of the relationship (Logan, 2008). Step up the Air Force Cyber Commands effort to counter cyber attacks proactively. Air Force has claimed that the cyber domain is characterized by use of electronic systems and the electromagnetic spectrum. Space and cyber space domains are interrelated, and Air Force might justify to taking the lead to coordinate and de-conflict cyber activities. Finalize an Information Warfare (IW) doctrine to ensure cyber dominance. In Joint Vision 2010, the Joint Chiefs of Staff specifies the central operational concept of the futurethe one from which the others will flowto be information superiority (Major Raul R Henning, 1997). Since the PLA might already have an IW doctrine, it is logical to believe that China has strategic plan on IW attack and defense. The IW doctrine to the U.S. is important for its readiness to counter-attack and maintain information superiority. U.S. government must plan on having long-term funding and resources to meet the strategic goal. In the hearing before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, U.S. Congresswoman Zoe Lofgren said its not at all clear to us in Homeland overlooking the various departments that the FISMA standards are even being deployed throughout the federal government, and certainly its not clear that the FISMA standards provide an adequate level of security from a cyber point of view (China's Proliferation Practices and the Development of its Cyber and Space Warfare Capabilities, 2008). The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) should mandate all Information Systems Security workforces in all federal agencies to establish the minimum requirements for professional certification (e.g., Certified Information Systems Security Professional, Information Systems Security Engineering Professional) in order to meet the required skills, knowledge, and abilities for fighting the cyber security. To meet the challenge in cyber security, the U.S. government must take the initiatives to promote research and innovation in robust cyberspace technologies, and foster collaboration amongst government, private industry and academia. Staying ahead is the only game plan to counter cyber-attack.

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