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GINGRICH THE FRONTRUNNER: HE IS NOW THE CHOICE OF NEARLY ONE IN THREE GOP VOTERS

Last week there was a three way horserace among voters who intend to vote in a Republican presidential primary or caucus next year. This week, in the Economist/YouGov Poll, there is one clear leader: former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich is the choice of nearly one in three GOP voters.

Preferred Republican Candidate for President


"If you had to choose one, which of these individuals would you want to be the Republican nominee for president in 2012?" 40
Percent of Registered Voters Likely to Vote in Republican Primary or Caucus

30

q q q q q

Gingrich: 31%

q q q q q

q q q q q q

20

Romney: 20%

q q q q q q q q q

q q q

Cain: 15%

10

q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q

Perry: 5%

Aug 2011

Sept 2011

Oct 2011

Nov 2011

Gingrich has jumped eight points in the last week, while former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney remains close to his level of a week ago and businessman Herman Cain has dropped below 20%. All other candidates are in single digits. The Gingrich climb is fueled by Republican voters who identify with the Tea Party: 43% of them favor Gingrich. But the former Speaker also does well with Republican voters who are not Tea Partiers: he narrowly trails Romney with that group.

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If you had to choose one, which of these individuals would you want to be the Republican nominee for president in 2012?
(Registered voters who are likely to vote in Republican primary or caucus) Newt Gingrich Herman Cain Mitt Romney Ron Paul Rick Perry Michele Bachmann Rick Santorum Gary Johnson Jon Huntsman Other No preference
3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% 6% 1% 2% 2% 12% 5% 5% 5% 7% 19% 12% 12% 26% 10% 43% 22%

Tea Party Followers NonTea Party Followers

Republican voters make clear distinctions between Gingrich and Cain when it comes to the attributes associated with governing. Nearly the same percentages of GOP voters say each man cares about people like themselves, understands their problems and shares their values. But Gingrich is much more likely than Cain to be perceived as understanding issues, being tough enough to make presidential decisions, and having the qualications to be President.

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Assessments of Cains presidential qualities have dropped in the last month. In mid-October, 63% believed Cain understood the issues, 68% said he was tough
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enough to make presidential decisions, and 61% said he had the qualications necessary to be president. Those declines may have been fueled by poor debate performances. Opinions of Cain may have been slightly affected by the sexual harassment allegations leveled at him by former associates during his time as head of the National Restaurant Association. A month ago, before these allegations were publicized, 65% of GOP voters said Cain shared their values, now 58% do, a drop of seven points.

CHALLENGING THE PRESIDENT: ROMNEY AND GINGRICH MAY BE MORE ELECTABLE THAN CAIN
President Barack Obamas approval rating remains low: just 39% in this weeks Economist/YouGov Poll approve of how he is handling his job, down from last week, and three points above his all-time low. But he is still competitive in 2012 fall matchups.

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?" 70 Disapprove: 46%

Obama Approval

60

Percent of Respondents

40

50

30

Approve: 39% 20 10

2009

2010

2011

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is nearly tied with the President when registered voters are asked who they would vote for if the November 2012 election were being held today. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich narrowly trails the President. Businessman Herman Cain is farther behind.
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If the 2012 presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and the following Republican candidate, would you vote for Barack Obama or the Republican candidate?
(Registered voters only)
Barack Obama Republican Candidate Other Not sure

46% 43%

48% 39%

47% 42%

6%

8% 5%

6%

6%

5%

Mitt Romney

Herman Cain

Newt Gingrich

There is nearly a year to go before that election, and it is by no means certain that any of these three men will actually be the Republican nominee. But the President continues to have serious difculties when it comes to handing the economy. Only 30% approve of his performance on that front. And when it comes to the President as a person, there may be problems as well. More than one in four Americans dislike him. And when asked if he mostly says what he believes, or mostly says what he thinks people what to hear, 58% say he panders matching the highest previous percentage thinking this.

BOTH PARTIES GET THE BLAME FOR SUPERCOMMITTEES FAILURE


Americans arent surprised by the Congressional Super Committees inability to come to an agreement on reducing the decit most never expected its members could or would agree. And in this weeks Economist/YouGov Poll, Americans see enough blame to go around: nearly half put the blame on members of both political parties.

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If the super committee members are NOT able to agree on recommendations to reduce the deficit, who would you blame more for the failure?
Republican members of the committee

25%

Democratic members of the committee

17%

Both equally

47%

Not sure

11%

Americans agree that the size of the federal budget decit is an important matter 85% express concern. And most believe government spending must be cut: 71% overall say that, including 58% of Democrats. There is still only minority support for increasing revenue by raising taxes: just 28% (and 43% of Democrats) support doing that.

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Overall, do you think that the federal government should increase or decrease...?
Increase Keep the same Decrease Not sure

71%

28%

29%

31%

12% 7%

10%

12%

...the amount it spends

...taxes

Americans arent sure where to turn to x the decit: just 31% approve of how the President is handling the problem. There is no consensus on which party is better at it: 35% trust the Democrats, 33% trust the Republicans, and 32% say both parties are the same. As for Congress overall, the Super Committees failure hasnt helped the legislative branchs image. In fact, Congresss approval rating in this weeks Economist/YouGov Poll is just one point above its all-time low. Only 8% approve of how Congress is handling its job, while 70% disapprove.

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Congress Approval
"Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the United States Congress is handling its job?" 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Disapprove: 70%
q

Percent of Respondents

Approve: 8%
q

2009

2010

2011

Clearly the situation is worrying Americans. 74% say the country is on the wrong track, matching the high during the Obama Administration. Nearly half think the economy is getting worse.

DROP IN SUPPORT FOR OCCUPY MOVEMENT


As the Occupy protests begin their third month, the recent arrests and violence recorded in some places may have taken a toll on public support. In the latest Economist/YouGov Poll, Americans divide more narrowly in their assessment of the movements goals than they have before. The public had been generally supportive.

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"Generally speaking, do you support or oppose the goals of the Occupy Wall Street movement?" 50

Support for Occupy Wall Street

Percent of Respondents Who Are Aware of Occupy Wall Street Movement

Support: 38% 40

Oppose: 33%
q

30

Neutral or Not Sure: 29% 20

October 2011

November 2011

This week, 38% of Americans say they support the Occupy Wall Street goals, while 33% say they oppose them. There are clear partisan differences: 60% of Democrats support the movements goals; 63% of Republicans oppose them.

ONE IN FOUR ADULTS WILL BE SHOPPING BLACK FRIDAY BUT MANY WILL BE SPENDING LESS
One in four adults plan to take advantage of Black Friday sales this year, but there is little indication most will be spending any more than they have in the past. In the latest Economist/YouGov Poll, 25% will shop on Black Friday the day after Thanksgiving that marks the beginning of the Christmas shopping season, and the day retailers hope to go into the black.

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Do you plan to shop for sale items on the day after Thanksgiving, also known as "Black Friday"?
75%

25%

Yes

No

Younger adults are the most likely to hit the stores Friday 39% of them say theyll be shopping that day. But the critical economic question is How much will you spend this holiday season? Three in four Americans plan to buy Christmas presents, but only 5% of those adults say they will spend more this year than they have in previous years. And more than four in ten will spend less than usual.

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Compared to previous years, how much do you plan to spend on Christmas gifts this year?
(Asked if respondent plans to buy Christmas presents) 51%

42%

5%

3%

More

About the same

Less

Not sure

Older Americans are especially likely to be holding back, but there is no difference when it comes to economic class. Nearly as many Xmas gift buyers with incomes above $100,000 as those with incomes under $40,000 say they will spend less this year.

MOST AMERICANS WILL SPEND THANKSGIVING CLOSE TO HOME


Though the Thanksgiving weekend may be the largest leisure travel weekend and the day before Thanksgiving the busiest travel day we shouldnt forget that most Americans spend their holiday close to home. 80% of those in the latest Economist/YouGov Poll will be sleeping at home Thanksgiving night. And nearly half of those who do travel will be traveling less than 100 miles from home.

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Will you spend at least one night away from home during the Thanksgiving holiday?
Yes, I will travel more than 100 miles from home

12%

Yes, I will travel less than 100 miles from home

8%

No, I will not spend any nights away from home

80%

There has been no real change in Thanksgiving travel plans from a year ago. And, as they did last year, most of those who are traveling will be traveling by car. Just one in ve of those who will leave home will travel by air.

AMERICANS SEE DECLINING RESOURCES BUT NOT IN THEIR LIFETIME


Nearly three our of every four Americans see the possibility of the earth running out of the resources necessary to support its growing population, but relatively few see this as a threat that will affect them personally. 73% of those in the latest Economist/YouGov Poll say the earth will run out of resources, but just 6% think this will probably happen in their lifetimes.

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How likely do you think it is that the earth will run out of resources to sustain a growing population?
Will probably never happen
15%

May happen in the future, but not in my lifetime

49%

May happen in my lifetime

18%

Will probably happen in my lifetime

6%

Not sure

11%

15% overall think the earth will never run out, with more than a quarter of Republicans (26%) agreeing. Democrats are more pessimistic: eight in ten of them expect this will happen someday. Younger adults (those under 30), with more years of life ahead of them, are the most likely to think they might be around to see this happen: 34% describe it as a possibility in their lifetime. Many Americans think the global population is getting too large. In the wake of the United Nations announcement of the worlds population reaching seven billion, 50% say the population is too high and is harming the environment. 58% of college graduates agree.

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