1nL NA1ICNAL SLCUkI1 CI SMALL S1A1LS A CASL S1UD CI SINGACkL

8 MLI ANAND SA1nI kUMAk (SINGACkL AkMLD ICkCLS)

IN1kCDUC1ICN

`5inqopore must o/woys mointoin o credib/e ond deterrent mi/itory defence os the fundomento/
underpinninq of on effective foreiqn po/icy

L|m kuan ew
S|ngapore's r|me M|n|ster

1 1hls dlsserLaLlon wrlLLen by Lhe above offlcer offers a perspecLlve ln [usLlfylng Lhe developmenL
of Slngapore Armed lorces (SAl) Lo lLs presenL seLLlng As a small sLaLe LhaL ls saddled wlLh a myrlad of
geopollLlcal cleavages she was consLanLly compelled Lo relnvenL and reenerglze Lo remaln ln Lhe fore
fronL among Lhe oLher SouLh LasL Aslan nelghbours 1hls pesslmlsLlc ouLlook was very much drlven
slnce early lndependence on Lhe need Lo bulld a credlble convenLlonal mlllLary capablllLy LhaL had been
sLeadfasLly malnLalned and lnvesLed by Lhe Slngapore AdmlnlsLraLlon slnce

DISCUSSICN

2 1he auLhor has gone Lo greaL lengLhs ln magnlfylng and somewhaL exalLlng Lhe evoluLlon of SAl
1he quesLlon here ls whaL compels SAl Lo do so? uoes Slngapore as a naLlon requlres such a large
sLandlng and very modern mlllLary? As a naLlon of mere 4 mllllon lnhablLanLs (of whlch 20 are forelgn
naLlonals) coupled wlLh Lhe lack of naLural resources eLhnlc lmbalance no LerrlLorlal depLh hlghly
concenLraLed urbanlzed lnfrasLrucLure and uncerLaln naLlonallsm are among Lhe dlre reasons LhaL
lnduce Lhe need for such securlLy WlLh all Lhese geosLraLeglc vulnerablllLles Slngapore reallzes LhaL lL
needs Lo be compeLlLlve for survlval and LhaL Lhough a robusL and formldable mlllLary would provlde
Lhe bruLe force Lhere are also oLher areas LhaL Slngapore have Lo develop ln Landem as parL of a
compleLe package mulLl pronged approach Among Lhe oLher porLfollos LhaL were dedlcaLed due
aLLenLlon were

a Lmploylng sound and frulLful economlcs
b Lnhanclng soclal and naLlonal coheslon
c CulLlvaLlng respecLable fuLure leaders
d 8eglonal and lnLernaLlonal dlplomacy
e Lnhanclng defence Lles and mechanlsms

CIN1S 1C CNDLk

ln a way due credlL should be accorded SAl as lLs sLandlng Loday ls a LesLlmony of a deLermlned
manlfesLaLlon embarked from Lhe onseL WlLh lnlLlal foundaLlon lald ouL wlLh uefence lan 1966
subsequenLly wlLh a serles of plans vlsuallzed Lhrough CombaLanL 2000 / Army 2000 / SAl 2000 followed
by Army 21 and recenLly embarked lnLo SAl
rd
CeneraLlon Pavlng esLabllshed Lhls foundaLlon a qulck
look would conclude LhaL SAl has Lhe numbers a dedlcaLed sLrengLh LhaL can be moblllzed and have an
array of armoury asseLs LhaL are lmpresslve melL an lmpedlng adversary 8uL a closer look would
reveal LhaL Lhere ls more Lo lL LhaL meeLs Lhe eye 1hls Langlble elemenL Lhough remarkable does noL
palnL Lhe full plcLure as lL ls lnconcluslve Lo deLermlne wheLher SAl ls a vlable warflghLlng force 1he
conLenLlon here would very much be dependenL upon Lhe poLenLlal confllcL Should lL be foughL away
from lLs shores lL would auger well as Lhe alr force and navy would Lake Lhe lead and permlL Lhe
deploymenL of much of lLs expedlLlonary asseLs Powever should Lhe confllcL be closer Lo home Lhan a
poslLlve ouLcome may noL be smooLh ln negoLlaLlng such a scenarlo Lhere are four conslderaLlons LhaL
mlghL serve as a dlsadvanLage

a SAl lack or has no combaL experlence AcLlve duLy and naLlonal Servlcemen would need Lo
deal wlLh combaL slLuaLlons aL Lhelr own doorsLep ls Lhe SAl up Lo lL? WhaL abouL posslble
causallLles? Can Lhe Slngapore publlc accepL such grlef?

b 8elng an over whelmlng clLlzens armed forces Lhe counLry has yeL Lo encounLer any
dlscomforL or hardshlp slnce lndependence Slngaporeans have en[oyed a relaLlvely benlgn llfe
safe and free from any upheavals 1hls probably quesLlons Lhe fraglllLy of clvlllan morale once
llves LhreaLened

c As a naLlon wlLh no depLh Lhls geographlcal dlsadvanLage lndlrecLly conLrlbuLes Lo mlllLary
asymmeLry

d As a condensed and saLuraLed naLlon lndlrecLly provldes many lucraLlve LargeLs

CCNCLUSICN

4 lrom Lhe above exposlLlon lL would be a fallacy Lo conclude LhaL Lhe concepL of securlLy ls
absoluLe Complex reglonal alllances geopollLlcal slLuaLlon operaLlonal weapons sysLems and posslble
momenLous changes ln Lhe envlronmenL can provlde adverse lmpacLs Lo Lhe posslble conLemplaLlons of
a naLlon Lvery endeavor has lLs pros and cons As a cauLlous naLlon Slngapore ls noL an excepLlon 1he
foundaLlon of Slngapore's survlval phllosophy ls Lo be relevanL lmporLanL and a small glanL lL ls for
such opLlmum LhaL Slngapore needs Lo be wary consLanLly be on lLs Loes and rapldly respond Lo
changes ln Lhe exLernal envlronmenL








Man the State and War kenneth Wa|tz 19S9


lran sLarLed enrlchlng lLs own uranlum Lhls week Why lf nuclear weapons ushered ln an era of
unprecedenLed peace growLh and wealLh for Lhose possesslng Lhem should we noL welcome Lhe
spread of nuclear weapons? Pave Lhe nuclear haves noL always credlLed nuclear deLerrence for
banlshlng war beLween nuclear weapons sLaLes? 1hls ls Lhe argumenL LhaL kenneLh WalLz made ln 1981
renewed ln 200 and whlch surely begs brlnglng back agaln Lhls week

WalLzs argumenL sLems dlrecLly from Lhe loglc of nuclear deLerrence and Lhe balance of power
a concepL he relnvlgoraLed ln hls semlnal LexL Man Lhe SLaLe and War Pe sLarLs by asklng where Lhe
causes of war are Lo be found and poslLs LhaL Lhey are Lo be found somewhere ln Lhe nowfamous Lhree
lmages" or levels of analysls ln lnLernaLlonal pollLlcs 1he flrsL ls human behavlor" (chapLer 2) or more
succlncLly human naLure lf Lhe causes of war are Lo be found here one musL dlvlne Lhe naLure of
human behavlour Cf course Lhere are as many vlews on human naLure as humans on Lhe planeL and
Lhus how Lo secure peace wlll be equally lndeLermlnaLe WalLz counLers all Lhe human naLure soluLlons
Lo Lhe causes of war and peace as belng reducLlonlsL ln chapLer by Lrylng Lo explaln everyLhlng
human behavlour lmages explaln noLhlng Powever where l Lhlnk Lhls lmage could glve clarlLy would be
ln focuslng on declslonmakers (heads of sLaLe dlplomaLs generals and so on) and Lhelr role ln causlng
war and peace

WalLz Lhen looks ln chapLer 4 aL a second lmage domesLlc pollLlcs or Lhe lnLernal sLrucLure of
sLaLes" All pollLlcal Lheorles have a concepLlon of Lhe good sLaLe whlch ls (wlLh Lhe excepLlon of
mlllLarlsm) a peaceful one We all know LhaL democracles have never foughL each oLher Lhe Lrouble ls
LhaL Lhere ls llLLle agreemenL as Lo whaL a democraLlc sLaLe conslsLs of leL alone wheLher LhaL ls Lhe only
good" sLaLe Soclallsm has always been smug abouL lLs credenLlals of belng good and peaceful
cerLalnly before Lhe llrsL World War lnLernaLlonal soclallsLs (ch3) belleved LhaL Lhey could prevenL war
buL Lhey all ended up flghLlng for Lhelr own sLaLes Powever ln Lhese Lwo chapLers WalLz does hlghllghL
Lhe lmporLance of a sLaLe's power or lLs ablllLy Lo acL and Lhls along wlLh Lhe human behavlour of
lndlvldual and group declslonmakers wlll prove lmporLanL when looklng aL all Lhree lmages LogeLher
!usL as Lhe socleLles Lhey llve ln make men so Lhe lnLernaLlonal envlronmenL makes sLaLes (page 122)
Lhe scene ls seL Lherefore Lo look aL Lhe Lhlrd and flnal lmage whlch examlnes Lhls lnLernaLlonal
envlronmenL whlch makes sLaLes

ChapLer 6 lnLroduces Lhe lnLernaLlonal anarchy WlLh many soverelgn sLaLes wlLh no sysLem of
law enforceable among Lhem wlLh each sLaLe [udglng lLs grlevances and amblLlons accordlng Lo Lhe
dlcLaLes of lLs own reason or deslre confllcL someLlmes leadlng Lo war ls bound Lo occur 1o achleve a
favorable ouLcome from such a confllcL a sLaLe has Lo rely on lLs own devlces Lhe relaLlve efflclency of
whlch ls lLs consLanL concern (p139)

ln anarchy Lhere ls no auLomaLlc harmony 8ecause some counLrles may be wllllng Lo use force
Lo achleve Lhelr ends and because Lhere ls no auLhorlLy Lo prevenL Lhem from dolng so even peacefully
lncllned sLaLes arm Lhemselves Coodness and evll agreemenL and dlsagreemenL may or may noL lead
Lo war War occurs because Lhere ls noLhlng Lo prevenL lL Lhere ls no auLomaLlc ad[usLmenL of lnLeresLs
among sLaLes and Lhere ls a consLanL posslblllLy LhaL confllcLs wlll be seLLled by force (p188) A balance
of power may exlsL because some counLrles consclously make lL Lhe end of Lhelr pollcles buL lL malnly
exlsLs because Lhe sysLem forces an equlllbrlum lL ls noL so much lmposed by sLaLesmen on evenLs as lL
ls lmposed by evenLs on sLaLesmen (p209)

1he Lhlrd lmage descrlbes Lhe framework of lnLernaLlonal pollLlcs buL wlLhouL Lhe flrsL and Lhe
second lmages Lhere can be no knowledge of Lhe forces LhaL deLermlne pollcy Lhe flrsL and second
lmages descrlbe Lhe forces ln lnLernaLlonal pollLlcs buL wlLhouL Lhe Lhlrd lmage lL ls lmposslble Lo assess
Lhelr lmporLance or predlcL Lhelr resulLs (p28) lor WalLz anarchy or Lhe absence of cenLral auLhorlLy
ls Lhe orderlng prlnclple of Lhe lnLernaLlonal sysLem 8y analogy Lo mlcroeconomlc Lheory (ch7) WalLz
argues LhaL lnLernaLlonal sysLems emerge from selfregardlng unlLs comlng lnLo conLacL wlLh each oLher
ln a mlcroLheory wheLher economlc or pollLlcal Lhe moLlvaLlon of acLors ls assumed raLher Lhan
reallsLlcally descrlbed WalLz assumes LhaL sLaLes seek Lo ensure Lhelr survlval 1he real alms of sLaLes
may be endlessly varlable buL ln a world wlLhouL securlLy survlval ls Lhe foundaLlon for Lhe Lheory

Anarchy does noL lmply LhaL vlolence ls common ln Lhe lnLernaLlonal sysLem buL raLher LhaL Lhe
LhreaL of vlolence ls ever presenL Anarchy means LhaL Lhe lnLernaLlonal sysLem ls one of selfhelp WalLz
ldenLlfles Lwo ways ln whlch Lhe sLrucLure of Lhe lnLernaLlonal sysLem llmlLs cooperaLlon llrsL Lhe
condlLlon of lnsecurlLyaL Lhe leasL Lhe uncerLalnLy of each abouL Lhe oLhers fuLure lnLenLlons and
acLlonsworks agalnsL Lhelr cooperaLlon A sLaLe worrles abouL a dlvlslon of posslble galns LhaL may
favour anoLher sLaLe more Lhan lLself Second a sLaLe ls also concerned abouL becomlng dependenL on
oLhers and Lherefore also chooses Lo llmlL lLs cooperaLlon wlLh oLher sLaLes WalLz sees vlrLues ln
anarchyprlnclpally LhaL sLaLes can preserve Lhelr auLonomy Whlle WalLz recognlzes Lhe exlsLence of
nonsLaLe acLors he dlsmlsses Lhelr lmporLance because sLaLes are sLlll Lhe mosL powerful acLors on Lhe
world sLageLhey have Lhe mosL lnfluence and Lhey seL Lhe rules 1hus Lhe lnLernaLlonal sysLem ls
deflned ln Lerms of sLaLes

1he naLure of Lhe lnLernaLlonal sysLem ls deLermlned by Lhe number of CreaL owers 1he
sLrucLure of Lhe lnLernaLlonal sysLem changes wlLh changes ln Lhe dlsLrlbuLlon of power and Lhls ls
where Lhe second level sLarLs Lo play a larger role Pls 8alance of ower 1heory (pages 116128 ln
chapLer 6) ls worLhy of close readlng and noLlng

1 SLaLes are unlLary acLors who seek aL a mlnlmum Lhelr own preservaLlon and aL a
maxlmum unlversal domlnaLlon
2 SLaLes seek Lo achleve Lhelr goals elLher Lhrough lnLernal balanclng (lncreaslng economlc
and mlllLary sLrengLh) or exLernal balanclng (creaLlng alllances)
lor Lhls Lheory Lo operaLe we musL see Lwo or more sLaLes ln a selfhelp sysLem wlLh no
superlor auLhorlLy over Lhem
llnally WalLz conLrasLs balanclng wlLh bandwagonlng ln whlch weaker sLaLes choose Lo ally
wlLh Lhe sLronger sLaLe WalLz argues LhaL because power ls a means noL an end sLaLes prefer Lo [oln Lhe
weaker of Lwo coallLlons Agaln Lhe sLrucLure of Lhe lnLernaLlonal sysLem and Lhe necesslLy of survlval
dlcLaLe Lhls behavlour ln chapLer 8 WalLz lnvesLlgaLes how changes ln Lhe sLrucLure of Lhe lnLernaLlonal
sysLem affecL alllances Pe focuses ln parLlcular on Lhe dlfference beLween mulLlpolar and blpolar
alllance sysLems

1he prlmary dlfference beLween mulLlpolar and blpolar balanclng ls LhaL mulLlpolar balanclng
occurs exLernally (among sLaLes) whlle blpolar balanclng occurs lnLernally 8ecause exLernal balanclng ls
more uncerLaln blpolar balanclng Lends Lo produce less confllcL WalLz dlscusses several addlLlonal
feaLures of mulLlpolar balanclng

* SLaLes wlll woo alllance parLners by adapLlng Lo Lhem Lxample lrance and 8ussla
aLLempLlng Lo appear more allke one anoLher ln order Lo form Lhelr alllance ln 1894
* lor securlLy sLaLes are wllllng Lo allgn wlLh anyone
* 1he weaker parLner ln an alllance wlll deLermlne pollcy ln a momenL of crlsls
* lnLernaLlonal compeLlLlon wlll Lend Lo force sLaLes ln a mulLlpolar order lnLo Lwo blocs
* Pavlng Lwo blocs does noL mean LhaL Lhe sysLem ls blpolar because alllance shlfLs and
defecLlons can sLlll occur
* 1hese alllance shlfLs and defecLlons make Lhe mulLlpolar order dangerous
* 1he flexlblllLy of alllances makes for rlgldlLy ln sLraLegy

lor blpolar alllances

* Alllance leaders do noL need Lo worry much abouL Lhe falLhfulness of followers
* ln blpolar sysLems Lhere wlll be unequal burdensharlng beLween Lhe ma[or and mlnor
powers ln an alllance
* CreaL owers ln a blpolar sysLem do noL need Lo make Lhemselves aLLracLlve Lo alllance
parLners lor example Lhe SovleL unlon and Lhe uSA dld noL alLer Lhelr sLraLegles Lo
accommodaLe allles
* 1he rlgldlLy of blpolar alllances makes for flexlble sLraLegy

CrlLlclsms Lhere ls ofLen noL a balance buL an lmbalance creaLed ln Lhe Lu Lhe weaker sLaLes
seem Lo fawn on lrance and Cermany and do Lhelr wlll look aL how everyone flocked Lo MlcrosofL
Wlndows and all buL abandoned unlx llkewlse Coogles 70+ share of Lhe search englne markeL and
noL many wlll Lry Lo argue LhaL Lhe markeL ls selfrlghLlng durlng Lhls credlL crunch (Lhough qulLe clearly
lL ls wlLh a vengeance)!

WalLz' analysls underplns so many oLher famous LexLs LhaL have come afLer hls lncludlng a
number of Lhe books l have revlewed ln Lhls blog AnoLher key LexL ln Lhe undersLandlng of War ollLlcs
SLraLegy 8arry 8uzan's eople SLaLes and lear (whlch l wlll have Lo dusL off and revlew) overLly uses
WalLz's Lhree levels of analysls Lo sLudy Lhe concepL of securlLy
kenneLh ayne ln hls ulscusslon Analogles and AfghanlsLan eleganLly argued agalnsL placlng Loo
much emphasls on analogles buL WalLzs key conLrlbuLlon ls Lo explaln recurrlng paLLerns of sLaLe
behavlour LhroughouL hlsLory

LxperLs may dlspuLe how he explalns Lhe flrsL Lwo levels and how Lhese lnLeracL wlLh each
oLher buL Lhey wlll all agree LhaL hls Lhreelevel analysls ls a powerful way of comprehendlng Lhe
lncomprehenslble of parLs of lnLernaLlonal pollLlcs WalLz ls ln hls elemenL when he Lalks abouL Lhe Lhlrd
level and argues LhaL Lhe world exlsLs ln a sLaLe of perpeLual lnLernaLlonal anarchy

AnoLher greaL sLrengLh of WalLz' analysls ls hls explanaLlon of Lhe funcLlon of CreaL owers (and
exLrapolaLlng from LhaL Superowers) ln Lhe lnLersLaLe sLrucLure lL ls upon Lhls analysls LhaL l commend
hls 1981 llSS Adelphl aper on Lhe Spread of nuclear Weapons Lo you and ask for your conLrlbuLlon ln
Lhe llghL of Lhe currenL hoohaa over lran

osLed by Charles llddes ayne aL 0913

Labels A 8CCk WC81P 8LAulnC

Me[ Afendl ls a resoluLe offlcer wlLh lmpeccable characLer whom has wlLnessed Lhe mllls of Lhe sysLem
whlch ls reflecLed by hls work maLurlLy professlonallsm and respecLfulness 1hls sLrong foundaLlon ls
echoed ln hls ablllLy Lo adapL Lo change be proacLlve work under pressure meLlculously lronlng ouL
deLalls whlle malnLalnlng a poslLlve aLLlLude are Lruly hls hallmarks LhaL conLlnuously defles / exceeds
superlors expecLaLlons Pe has a sLrong deLermlnaLlon Lo excel whlch ls manlfesLed ln hls unLlrlng
dedlcaLlon commlLmenL and quallLy of ouLpuL Pas Lhe ablllLy Lo arLlculaLe confldenLly along wlLh
Lechnlcal skllls furLher enhance hls compeLency Can be enLrusLed Lo work lndependenLly wlLh hls
creaLlve aLLlLude noLhlng ls deemed lmposslble A gem of an offlcer LhaL would lnevlLably became an
asseL Lo any organlzaLlon

Me[ Afendl seorang pegawal yang Legas dengan clrlclrl sempurna yang Lelah melalul kllangkllang
slsLem yang dlgambarkan oleh profeslonallsme maLang ker[anya dan kehormaLan keupayaannya
unLuk menyesualkan dlrl dengan perubahan proakLlf beker[a dl bawah Lekanan LellLl papan buLlrbuLlr
pada masa yang sama mengekalkan slkap yang poslLlf benarbenar mercu Landa bellau yang berLerusan
menenLang / meleblhl [angkaan unggul 8ellau mempunyal keazaman yang kuaL unLuk cemerlang yang
dlmanlfesLaslkan dalam komlLmen dedlkasl unLlrlng dan kuallLl ouLpuL Mempunyal keupayaan unLuk
menyuarakan yakln bersamasama dengan kemahlran Leknlkal Lerus menlngkaLkan kecekapan 8oleh
dlamanahkan unLuk beker[a secara bebas dengan slkap kreaLlf Llada apa yang dlanggap musLahll

Me[ Afendl lalah seorang pegawal Legas dengan karakLer sempurna yang pernah dllalul kllangkllang
slsLem yang dlcermlnkan oleh kemaLangan ker[anya profeslonallsme dan dengan penuh hormaL
kebolehan bellau akan penyesualan kepada perubahan men[adl proakLlf ker[a dl bawah Lekanan
dengan LellLl menggosok keluar buLlran keLlka memellhara saLu slkap yang poslLlf benarbenar
merupakan clrlclrlnya yang secara berLerusan menenLang / meleblhl hebaL [angkaan[angkaan ula
mempunyal saLu keazaman kuaL cemerlang yang dlnyaLakan dalam dedlkasl Lldak puLuspuLusnya
komlLmen dan kuallLl ouLpuL Adakah keupayaan menyebuL dengan yakln bersama dengan kemahlran
Leknlkal seLerusnya menlngglkan kecekapannya 8oleh dlpercayal beker[a secara bebas dengan slkap
kreaLlfnya Llada apaapa dlanggap musLahll