Spearhead Analysis 29.11.

11

ALLY vs ALLY Continued

Post event developments continue the event being the 26/11 attack by US/NATO on Pakistani check posts in Salala, Mohmand Agency of FATA. From recent reports it seems that the attack was not a quick retaliatory or preemptive strike but that it continued for hours one and a half hours according to a Washington Post article to six hours as described by an injured survivor. A safe bet would be two to three hours enough to dispel the accidental or unintended or mistaken scenario and shift focus to deliberate, pre-meditated, maximum kill type of attack. This should make the investigation by NATO simpler and quicker. Several questions have now surfaced and each in its own way explains this attack that without a doubt is being seen as a land mark game changing event. The first question being asked is why there was no response by the Pakistan military if the attack was continued over a prolonged period especially when there seem to have been urgent messages from Pakistan asking for a cessation of the attack? Was it because there is no satisfactory night time response capability or some other reason? Similar questions were asked after the US raid to take out Osama. This question is also being used to indicate that the attack was deliberate and intended to highlight the helplessness of the Pakistan military against US incursions so as to bring it under criticism from Pakistanis part of the get Pakistan military and ISI series. Raymond Davis, OBL, and memo-gate are all slotted into the same category. There is also confusion on the status of the base Shamsi Base that the US has been asked to vacate.

The next scenario being tossed around is based on the fact that the attack was from Afghanistans Nangarhar province the scene of a recent transition of security responsibility to Afghan Security Forces. The idea apparently was to demonstrate US support capability to panicky Afghan National Security Forces. These forces are said to have asked for close support during some kind of operation in the area and panicked when a flare was allegedly fired by the Pakistanis to see what was going on. Also to indicate to the Pakistanis the type of post withdrawal operations that could be conducted against them if they were to try and exploit the situation. As collateral it helps secure the US-Afghan Strategic Agreement and the Pentagons future plans. A variant of this scenario has the Taliban masterminding the event by engaging the Afghan Security Forces in the vicinity of the Pakistani post thereby triggering their reaction and US/NATO response. The Taliban have had a long standing desire to see the Afghan Government Forces fighting with the Pakistan military. Yet another variant is the desire of the Northern Alliance backed Afghan Government to see the US attacking Pakistan whom they have repeatedly identified as the real enemy. The Taliban are seen by some as riddled with all sorts of intelligence operatives and therefore amenable to outside influences at a price. These debates and speculations will continue. The usual pattern is that the event reaches conclusion as per the plan of the stronger side and is followed by regret and concern by the perpetrator and much chest thumping and threats by the other side. The next phase is the speculation and analysis phase this is where we are right now, and finally comes the post event investigation and action phase to bring some sort of conclusion. This particular event is being seen as far too serious and damaging to smoothly move through these transitions unless there is genuine resolve to do this. The enduring perception is that this was a planned premeditated attack specifically for the purpose of killing Pakistani soldiers. On the US side the response so far is that the action to stop logistics through Pakistan will have no impact on operations and that the drone attacks will continue. Going by postings on the internet it seems that there is satisfaction in the US that their military has kicked ass and the Pakistanis have got what was coming to them this is most unfortunate and will ramp up the anti US feelings in Pakistan from anti US policy to anti-American. Both sides need to sit back and decide on the end result they want in the relationship it will then be easier to plan and orchestrate movement to that end result. Allowing the media and public opinion on both sides to take over as they muddle through will be messier and downright dangerous.
(Spearhead Analyses are collaborative efforts and not attributable to a single individual).

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