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  • 1 10 10 India A Growth Opportunity James Randall

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    Atul Sasane
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    1) India has a large and growing population of over 1.1 billion people across thousands of towns and villages, with 50% of retail sales occurring in major metro areas. 2) The population is young and growing rapidly, projected to become the largest in the world by 2026, and low penetration of products means continued double-digit growth rates in consumer categories. 3) India's middle class is forecasted to grow substantially over the next decade, becoming the world's fifth largest consumer group and fueling increased spending and adoption of consumer goods.

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    1 10 10 India a Growth Opportunity James Randall

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    1) India has a large and growing population of over 1.1 billion people across thousands of towns and villages, with 50% of retail sales occurring in major metro areas. 2) The population is young and growing rapidly, projected to become the largest in the world by 2026, and low penetration of products means continued double-digit growth rates in consumer categories. 3) India's middle class is forecasted to grow substantially over the next decade, becoming the world's fifth largest consumer group and fueling increased spending and adoption of consumer goods.

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    7 Ansichten11 Seiten

    1 10 10 India A Growth Opportunity James Randall

    Hochgeladen von

    Atul Sasane
    1) India has a large and growing population of over 1.1 billion people across thousands of towns and villages, with 50% of retail sales occurring in major metro areas. 2) The population is young and growing rapidly, projected to become the largest in the world by 2026, and low penetration of products means continued double-digit growth rates in consumer categories. 3) India's middle class is forecasted to grow substantially over the next decade, becoming the world's fifth largest consumer group and fueling increased spending and adoption of consumer goods.

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    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Als PDF, TXT herunterladen oder online auf Scribd lesen
    Markieren Sie unangemessene Inhalte
    von 11

    India a huge opportunity for Growth

    James Randall Tokyo October 2010

    GfK Retail and Technology

    India A Growth Opportunity, James Randall

    October 2010

    India, diversity in numbers:


    1,156,897,766 Population

    16 Official Languages & 1,650 Dialects 82% Hindu, 12% Muslim, 2% Christian, 2% Sikh and 1.5% Buddhist 75% rural in 615,000 villages
    27 States, 4,378 towns
    35 Metro Cities 1m+ population 39 Towns 0.5m 1m population 320 Towns 100 500k population 3,984 Towns up to 100k population

    Retail Share:
    Metros

    49% 0.5m - 1m pop

    14%

    18%

    20%

    100 - 500k pop

    up to 100k pop

    Source: GfK nielsen India and Government of India Census

    GfK Retail and Technology

    India A Growth Opportunity, James Randall

    October 2010

    Exploding population:

    Predicted to be the largest population in the world by 2026 at 1,471,000,000


    3

    Fastest growing working age population

    Over 50% of the population is below 25 years of age

    0 14 yrs 15 64 yrs 65+ Population + 19m a year

    19% 60% 21%

    31% 64% 5%

    in 2020 average Indian will be 29yrs (v 37 yrs in China)

    Source: National Population Stabilisation fund

    GfK Retail and Technology

    India A Growth Opportunity, James Randall

    October 2010

    The fastest growing population. :


    2009 GDP (current prices IMF 2009):
    $14,256bn $4,908bn

    Experiencing rapid growth but with a very low GDP Per Capita
    4

    $5,068bn

    $1,235bn

    $3,352bn

    9.7%

    9.2%

    6.7%

    7.2% Indian GDP

    8.2%

    9.0%

    2006 - 07

    '07 - 08

    '08 - 09

    '09 - 10*

    '10 - 11*

    '11 - 12*

    2009 GDP Nominal Per Capita:


    $46,381 $3,678 $39,731 $1,031 $40,875

    Value of final goods & services produced by nation in a year, converted marketexch rate to US$ divided by the average (or mid-year) Source: IMF and Indian PMs Economic Advisory Council Forecast

    GfK Retail and Technology

    India A Growth Opportunity, James Randall

    October 2010

    In 2 decades will grow from 5% to 40%, their incomes will balloon to $1.1bn (x11)

    Growing middle classes become worlds 5th consumer group:


    5

    Between 2000 & 2009 Rich & consuming grew by 59% or 34m HOUSEHOLDS!
    Rich (US$ +5,000 p.a.) Consuming (US$ 1200 5000 p.a.)

    The Classes

    1990

    2000

    2008-09

    1 29

    3 55

    7 85

    The next 10 years could see 55m extra consuming households (2x UK)

    Climbers (US$ 500 1200 p.a.)

    48

    66

    90

    Aspirants (US$ +350 - 500 p.a.)

    48 35

    32 24

    32

    Destitute (US$ < 350)

    15

    Source: National Council of Applied Economic Research (Household in mn.)

    GfK Retail and Technology

    India A Growth Opportunity, James Randall

    October 2010

    2010 = huge market growth rates in India:


    6

    87%

    37%

    37%

    35% 20% 14% 12% 12%


    Microwave 1m

    Category:

    LCD/Plasma (millions units) 3m

    Mobile 139m

    AC 4m

    Notebook 3m

    DSC Refrigeration WM 2m 8m 4m

    Source: GfK nielsen India retail sales

    GfK Retail and Technology

    India A Growth Opportunity, James Randall

    October 2010

    Low Penetration of Products & Growing Middle Class:


    TV & Mobile Phone Cross Class & Rural Divide
    55.0%

    Rural Share:

    10% 31% 6%

    55.0%

    19.0%

    Penetration
    7.0%

    8% 2%

    3.0%

    As Indians become Middle Class they expect: Refrigerator, Washing Machine, Air Conditioner and a PC

    Source: GfK nielsen India retail sales

    GfK Retail and Technology

    India A Growth Opportunity, James Randall

    October 2010

    New Customer in India in the next decade:

    Mobile Penetration reaches 85%, TV 75% H.H. and 147m Consuming Households by 2020
    8

    366

    223

    220

    113

    New Customers in Millions


    103

    Source: GfK nielsen India retail sales

    GfK Retail and Technology

    India A Growth Opportunity, James Randall

    October 2010

    Exploiting the Market Opportunity:


    LCD Brand Share by country Jan 2010:
    49 38 10
    9

    Korean Brands, well established & manufacture in India

    Aug 2010: 615 3D TVs sold

    GfK Retail and Technology

    India A Growth Opportunity, James Randall

    October 2010

    India: a growth opportunity?


    Summary:
    10

    1.2bn people in 4,378 towns and 610k villages (50% sales in Metros) Population grows by 19m people a year (approx size of Australia or NL) 50% of Indian Population is under 25...... Indian Middle Class set to grow by 55m Households in 10 years Indian Middle Class forecast to become worlds 5th consumer group Low penetration provide double digit growth rates for years to come Masses of opportunity for new entrants

    India a huge opportunity for Growth


    James Randall Tokyo October 2010

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