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Recall: interarrival times Xi are exponential RVs with rate , so Xi = ln(Ui)/, Ui U ni(0, 1); therefore RV Tj = j Xi = the time for j th event. i=1 Algorithm A, to generate all events in (0, T ): 1) initialize t = ln(U0)/, n = 0; 2) while t < T , n = n + 1, Sn = t, t = t ln(Un)/ end. Output n is # of events in (0, T ), and event times S1, . . . , Sn. Example: a) in Text Problem 5.24, buses arrive at a sporting event according to a Poisson process with rate 5 per hour; need to simulate bus arrivals over one hour period.

b) Example Matlab for = 3, T = 2 t = -log(rand)/3; n = 0; while t < 2, n = n+1; S(n) = t; t = t - log(rand)/3; end disp(n), disp(S(1:n)) 7 .14181 .34328 .90224 1.0121 1.2183 1.4602 1.4988 For K = 10000 Matlab runs, E[n] = 6.0205.

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POISSON GENERATION CONTINUED Alternate Method: uses discrete Poisson RV N (T ), where N (T ) = total # events in (0, T ), and mean(N ) = T . j T (T ) Recall Poisson pmf: pj = e j! , j = 0, 1, . . .. If n = N (T ), then T U1, T U2, . . . , T Un are event times, which can be sorted to get S1, . . . , Sn. Algorithm B, to generate all events in (0, T ): 1) generate N P oisson(T ); 2) generate U1, U2, . . . , UN U ni(0, 1); 3) sort T U1, . . . , T UN to get arrival times S1, . . . , Sn. Output N is # of events in (0, T ), with event times S1, . . . , Sn. Step 1)? use Poisson RV algorithm from text Chapter 4: 1a) generate U U ni(0, 1); 1b) set N = 0, p = eT , F = p; 1c) while U > F set N = N + 1, p = T p/N, F = F + p end; 1d) Output N , the # of Poisson process events in time T . Example: = 3, T = 2 U = rand; N = 0; p = exp(-6); F = p; while U > F, N = N+1; p = 6*p/N; F = F+p; end disp(N), disp(sort(2*rand(1,N))) 6 .042814 .21492 .66472 1.6707 1.7381 1.8899 For K = 10000 Matlab runs, E[N ] = 5.9872.

POISSON GENERATION CONTINUED NonHomogeneous Processes with intensity function (t) given. Interarrival times Xi are exponential RVs with rate (t), Thinning Algorithm to generate all Si (0, T ): 1) initialize t = 0, n = 0, = maxt[0,T ] (t); 2) set t = t ln(U ni(0, 1))/, if t > T , stop; 3) if U ni(0, 1) (t)/, set n = n + 1, Sn = t; 4) go to step 2. Output n is # of events in (0, T ), and event times S1, . . . , Sn. Example, with (t) = 6/(t + 2), T = 2; so = 3. t = -log(rand)/3; n = 0; while t < 2, if rand < 2/(t+2), n = n+1; S(n) = t; end t = t-log(rand)/3; end disp([n S(1:n)]) 4 .096807 .73985 1.3257 1.6074

POISSON GENERATION CONTINUED If (t) , it is more ecient to subdivide [0, T ]; use 0 = t0 < t1 < . . . < tk+1 = T , with j = maxt[tj1,tj ]((t)). Subdivision Algorithm to generate all Si (0, T ): 1) initialize t = 0, n = 0, j = 1; 2) X = ln(U ni(0, 1))/j ; 3) set t = t + X, if t > tj , go to step 6; 4) if U ni(0, 1) (t)/j , set n = n + 1, Sn = t; 5) go to step 2; 6) if j = k + 1 stop; 7) set X = (X + t tj )j /j+1, t = tj , j = j + 1; 8) goto step 3. Output n is # of events in (0, T ), and event times S1, . . . , Sn.

POISSON GENERATION CONTINUED Alternate Method, generates Sns directly, using Fs(x) = P {s < x|s} = 1 P {0 events in (s, s + x)} x 0 (s+t)dt =1e . Direct Algorithm: initialize n = 0, S0 = 0; while Sn < T , generate Xn+1 FSn ; set Sn+1 = Sn + Xn+1, n = n + 1 end. This method requires easily inverted FSi s. Example: with (t) = b/(t + a). First compute

x x

(s+y)dy = b

0 0

(s+y+a)1dy = b(ln(x+s+a)ln(s+a));

1 1 S1 = F0 (U1), Sn+1 = Sn + FSn (Un), i > 1.

POISSON GENERATION CONTINUED Example with (t) = 6/(t + 2), T = 2; so Fs1(U ) = (s + 2)[U 1/6 1].

Matlab t = 2*(rand^(-1/6)-1); n = 0; while t < 2, n = n+1; S(n) = t; t = t + (2+t)*(rand^(-1/6)-1); end, disp([n S(1:n)]) 5 .23931 .59698 .77515 1.1221 1.8968 Using K = 100000 runs, E[n] 4.1641, 2 6 compared to 0 2+x dx = 6 ln(2) 4.1589.

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