Y/E Mar

2007
2008
Revenue
12,951
15,367
EBITDA
1,508
2,919
EBITDA margin (%)
11.6
19.0
PAT
1,602
2,317
FDEPS (Rs)
11.8
17.0
P/E (x)
59.4
41.1
EV/EBITDA (x)
62.4
32.1
ROCE (%)
47.6
163.0
Source: BRICS Research, Company Data

2009
17,668
3,336
18.9
2,902
21.3
32.8
27.8
140.6

2010E
20,280
4,433
21.9
3,608
26.5
26.4
20.8
146.6

2011E
23,029
5,057
22.0
4,185
30.8
22.7
18.0
132.6

FY11E

FY12E

FY13E

FY14E

FY15E

(220)

(220)

(220)

(220)

(220)

(220)

Profit after tax

3,608

4,185

4,901

5,708

6,619

7,647

Depreciation

227

239

250

261

273

284

Net change in W Cap

286

385

453

513

583

661

3,902

4,588

5,384

6,263

7,254

8,373

131,086

3,902

4,588

5,384

6,263

7,254

139,460

Net Cash flow

Terminal Cash Flow
Total Cash flow
NPV (Rs mn)
Total no. of shares (mn)
Fair value per share (Rs)

100,962
136
742

Terminal growth rate

3.0%

WACC

9.6%

Risk-free rate

7.5%

Risk premium

5.0%

Beta
Cost of Equity

0.4
9.6%

Weight of equity

99.9%

Cost of Debt

23.5%

Tax Rate

16.0%

Post-tax cost of debt

19.7%

Weight of debt

0.1%

WACC

9.6%

Upside

6.4%

WACC
Terminal
growth rate

FY10E
Capital expenditure

7.6%

9.6%

11.6%

1.0%

808

604

478

3.0%

1,092

742

557

5.0%

1,815

1,001

683

Y/E Mar
Revenue
Operating exp
EBITDA
Depreciation
EBIT
Other income
Interest paid
PBT
Tax
APAT
Minority interest
EO inc / (exp)
PAT
Shares o/s (mn nos)
Revenue growth (%)
PAT growth (%)
EBITDA margin (%)
FDEPS (Rs) recurring
FDEPS (Rs) reported
Y/E Mar
Net fixed assets
Investments
Current assets
Inventories
Sundry debtors
Cash & bank balance
Loans & advances
Total assets
Networth
Share capital
Reserves & surplus
Minority interest
Total debt
Secured loans
Unsecured loans
Current liabilities & prov
Current liabilities
Provisions
Net deferred tax liab
Total liabilities

2007
12,951
11,443
1,508
153
1,356
670
10
2,016
414
1,602

1,602
136
15.2
16.4
11.6
11.8
11.8

2008
15,367
12,448
2,919
198
2,720
214
14
2,920
603
2,317

2,317
136
18.7
44.7
19.0
17.0
17.0

2009
17,668
14,332
3,336
229
3,107
357
11
3,453
551
2,902

2,902
136
15.0
25.3
18.9
21.3
21.3

2010E
20,280
15,847
4,433
227
4,206
272
11
4,467
859
3,608

3,608
136
14.8
24.3
21.9
26.5
26.5

2011E
23,029
17,972
5,057
239
4,818
444
11
5,251
1,066
4,185

4,185
136
13.6
16.0
22.0
30.8
30.8

Y/E Mar
Net Profit
Depreciation
Amortisation
Interest paid
Chg in working capital
Other op activities
Cash flow from op (a)
Capital expenditure
Chg in investments
Other investing act
Cash flow from inv. (b)
Free cash flow (a+b)
Equity raised/(repaid)
Debt raised/(repaid)
Interest paid
Dividend (incl. tax)
Other fin. activities
Cash flow from fin. (c)
Net chg in cash (a+b+c)

2007
1,602
153

10
403
(356)
1,812
(232)
150

(82)
1,730

(1)
(10)
(1,481)

(1,492)
238

2008
2,317
198

14
988
(76)
3,442
(214)
607

394
3,836
(1,224)
4
(14)
(2,276)

(3,511)
325

2009
2,902
229

11
(120)
(177)
2,846
273
343

615
3,460

(11)
(2,381)

(2,392)
1,068

2010E
3,608
227

11
286

4,133
(220)
(200)

(420)
3,713

(2)
(11)
(2,949)

(2,961)
752

2011E
4,185
239

11
385

4,819
(220)
(200)

(420)
4,399

(11)
(3,420)

(3,431)
969

2007
1,920
1,333
3,564
803
93
1,117
1,512
6,818
2,805
1,360
1,445

43

43
4,226
3,157
1,069
(257)
6,818

2008
1,990
726
4,017
756
92
1,443
1,700
6,733
1,622
136
1,486

47

47
5,342
3,469
1,873
(278)
6,733

2009
1,786
383
5,421
824
111
2,511
1,902
7,590
2,163
136
2,027

47

47
5,557
3,945
1,612
(177)
7,590

2010E
1,779
583
6,614
947
129
3,263
2,203
8,976
2,823
136
2,687

45

45
6,285
4,418
1,867
(177)
8,976

2011E
1,760
783
8,026
1,074
146
4,232
2,502
10,569
3,588
136
3,452

45

45
7,113
4,993
2,120
(177)
10,569

Y/E Mar
Raw material to sales (x)
Adv to sales (%)
Effective tax rate (%)
Dividend yield (%)
ROE (%)
ROCE (%)
Net debt/Equity (%)
EBITDA growth (%)

2007
0.4
16.0
20.6
1.4
57.1
47.6
(0.4)
(22.4)

2008
0.4
17.4
20.7
1.9
142.8
163.0
(0.9)
93.5

2009
0.4
16.0
16.0
2.1
134.2
140.6
(1.1)
14.3

2010E
0.4
15.1
19.2
2.7
127.8
146.6
(1.1)
32.9

2011E
0.4
15.3
20.3
3.1
116.6
132.6
(1.2)
14.1

Y/E Mar
EV/op. cash flow (x)
PER (x)
PCE (x)
Price/Book (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)

2007
47.0
59.4
542.7
33.9
62.4

2008
26.7
41.1
37.8
58.7
32.1

2009
28.2
32.8
30.4
44.0
27.8

2010E
21.1
26.4
24.8
33.7
20.8

2011E
17.9
22.7
21.5
26.5
18.0