Risk Analysis of Shield Tunnel Segment Failure Based on Fuzzy Fault Tree Method

Dong-an ZHAO, Jun-jie ZHENG*, Ye-wei ZHENG

Institute of Geotechnical and Underground Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
Abstract-Through analyzing and summarizing the types of shield tunnel segment failure and the relevant causes of the accident, Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) was employed to study the failure risk of segment and the Fuzzy Fault Tree system model of segment and segment-related systems were established. The potential failure modes of risk accidents and their influencing factors were discussed through qualitative and quantitative analysis. With its application on practical project, some effective control measures were proposed. This research could be valuable reference for the design, construction and control of shield tunnel segments. Keywords-shield tunnel segment; fuzzy fault tree analysis method; risk analysis

cracking in the composite earth pressure balanced shield. The mechanism of segments failure was also investigated. Some measures were proposed to reduce segments floating, segments dislocation and cracking. The results in this paper can offer reference to the development of shield construction technique in composite earth pressure balanced shield.

II.

FAILUARE STATUS OF SHIELD TUNNEL SEGMENT

I.

INTRODUCTION

Failure analysis of shield segments primarily considers segment floating, segment dislocation and segment cracks. Specific cases can be seen in Table I and Fig. 1 [4].
TABLE I. Segment Failure segment floating and dislocation Case Shanghai Metro Line 2

In recent two decades, a large number of subways have been constructed in China. Because of its unique advantages in tunnel construction, shield method is widely used not only in relatively uniform and single layer soil, but also in non-uniform composite soil layers [1]. The Yangtze River Tunnel Construction in Wuhan is such an example. The left and right line of Yangtze River Tunnel is 3630m (hole to hole), in which shield section is 2538m [2]. However, risks exist in the construction of shield tunnels [3]. In engineering practice, shield segments are found to have higher rate of risk accident. The main risks are segment floating, segment dislocation and cracking, which will directly affect the waterproofing quality and durability of shield tunnel. Take Guangzhou subway shield tunnel as an example, in the No.1 line from Yellow Sand Station to Changshou Road Station, totally 581 segments were installed, among which 419 segments have cracks that are 0.3mm wide, 93 segments are water seeping, accounting for 16% of the total number of segments. In the No.2 line from Chigang Station to Lujiang station, the cracked segments account for 3.4% of all the segments [4]. There are similar cases of risk events in the oversea projects, such as Singapore Kranji Tunnel [5], German Weser River subway tunnel [6] and German Porto subway [7]. Therefore, it becomes particularly important to study the risks of segments floating, segment dislocation and cracking in the composite shield tunnels. In this paper, fuzzy fault tree analysis method was used to quantitatively analyze the issue of segments floating, segments dislocation and

SEGMENT ACCIDENT CASES

Case description This line is a main line that connects Pudong and Puxi districts. The problems of segment floating, deviation from tunnel axis and segment dislocation were very severe. When the 407th segment of the right tunnel was installed, it was found that the previous segments floated severely. According to the statistical data, the 308-402 segments suffered from the biggest floating, among which the biggest floating value was 104mm. The surrounding soil of this tunnel was mainly pelitic siltstone. When the 156th segment was installed, the phenomenon of segment cracks, dislocation, leakage and floating began to occur. The surrounding soils were mainly residual soil, strongly weathered siltstone and slightly weathered sandstone. Segments floating, cracking and leakage began to occur not long after the advance of shield.

segment floating

Guangzhou Metro Line 3

segment dislocation and crack

Shield tunnel in No.4 Line of Guangzhou Metro Shield tunnel in No.4 Line of Guangzhou Metro

segment dislocation and crack

*Corresponding author: Jun-jie ZHENG (email:zhengjj@hust.edu.cn)

This project is supported by the Program for New Century Excellent Talents Ministry of EducationP. R. China(No. NCET-06-0649) and the Key Program of Science and Technology Development of Wuhan Rail Transit, P. R. China(No. -JZ-16-52) Figure 1. a (b) (c) Crack, dislocation and leakage caused by shield construction

III. FAULT TREE ANALYSIS OF RISKS OF SEGMENT FLOATING, DISLOCATION AND CRACKING Fuzzy fault tree is a method that is used to evaluate the reliability and failure of complex systems [8, 9]; it can analyze both the direct cause of accidents and the potential mechanism of accidents. At the same time, some preventative measures can be obtained.

probability of risk. The curve of Triangular fuzzy membership function is shown in Fig. 4.

In this paper, A = ( m a, m, m + b) . C. Calculation Method of Importance of Fuzzy Probability

Importance of probability is a very important index in fault tree analysis; it indicates the impact of changes in probability of basic events on the probability of superior events. In the fuzzy fault tree theory, there is corresponding
membership 1

A. Composition of the fault tree

Based on the experience of practical projects, this paper lists 15 risk factors that can lead to segment floating, segment dislocation and segment cracking in the construction of shield tunnels, including the following: 1) poor geological conditions; 2) inappropriate grouting process; 3) wrong selection of the grouting parameters; 4) poor posture when shield machine is excavating; 5) small space in the backside of segment; 6) over break of shield machine is too large; (7) uneven supporting pressure; (8) preload on the bolt is not reasonably controlled ; (9) damaged outer surface of segment; (10) cracks in the corner of segment; (11) concrete cracks around the bolt hole of segment; (12) mismanagement in the assembly of segments; (13) inappropriate mix proportion of segment concrete; (14) leaking in segment joints; (15) collisions during assembling segments. For convenience, f1 ~ f15 are used to represent them in this paper.

probability p m-a a m b m+b

Figure 3.

Minimal cut sets as an independent event or a gate structure of fault-tree

In probability analysis, each event is independent of each other, and any risk event could lead to failure of shield tunnel segment. Therefore, this fault tree can be regarded as one risk event in which the minimal cut set is an isolated incident or a single gate structure fault tree, as shown in Fig2.

calculation method of importance of fuzzy probability. In the existing literatures, the main calculation methods of importance of fuzzy probability are centered method [12] and the median value method [13], and the latter one is believed to be more reasonable.

D. Accurate method for calculating the multiplication of fuzzy numbers N triangular fuzzy numbers are assumed to be A is f j = (m j a j , m j , m j + b j ), j = 1 ~ N . multiplication of the above N triangular fuzzy numbers, thus A is also a fuzzy number. In addition, its

f1
Figure 2.

f2

f3

f 13

f 14

f 15

membership in

N j =1

(m j a j ) and

Minimal cut sets as an independent event or gate structure of fault-tree

0, whereas the membership in

m
N N j =1

j =1 j

(m j + b j ) is is 1. The

Take these 15 risk factors as bottom events in the tree, then take the occurrence probability of each bottom event as fuzzy number, thus we can calculate the structure importance of various risks.

membership of A between the two intervals could be obtained through representation theorem. Theorem 1 (Representation Theorem): Assuming that , and H : (0,1] I R , H ( ) = [m , n ] 1 < 2 [ m 1 , n1 ] [m 2 , n 2 ] , then we have : 1) A = H ( ) and A is fuzzy number.
[0,1]

B. Fuzzy probability of bottom events

Assuming that the probability of f1 ~ f15 is p1 ~ p15 , respectively, then the probability of top events in the whole construction process is as follows:

2) A = H (n ) ( > 0) (n = (1
n =1

p A = 1 (1 pi )
i =1

16

1 ) ) n +1 1 ) n +1 ,

(1)

3) A = ([mA , n A ], LA , RA ) Where, mA = lim mn nA = lim nn (n = 1

n n

Fuzzy numbers are adopted to represent the probability of risk in this paper. The concepts of fuzzy membership functions and cut sets can be found in [10, 11]. Triangular fuzzy numbers are used here to express the
2

LA ( x) = { | m x} RA ( x) = { | n x} ,
0 < <1 0 < <1

m and n are the multiplication of all fuzzy numbers at the left side and right side of the closed interval of cut sets, respectively, i.e.:
m = [m j a j (1 )] , n = [m j + b j (1 )]
j =1 N

(2)

j =1

Meanwhile, in the multiplication calculation of triangular fuzzy numbers,

m A = nA = m j
j =1 N

In traditional experts survey method, each expert is assumed to be completely confident with his or her judgment, which is obviously inconsistent with the factual situation. This is because even the most brilliant academician cannot offer completely accurate judgment. In order to evade this problem, this paper uses the Confidence Index Method to modify the data obtained from experts survey method.
TABLE II. Grade (r) 1 2 number of experts ( mr ) 5 12 6 5

(3)

COMPOSITION OF EXPERTS
calculation coefficient ( vr ) 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 calculation weight ( r ) 0.041494 0.037344 0.033195 0.029046

Assuming [m j a j (1 )] = f j , in this paper, it is impossible that the probability is is f j > 0 m > 0 , when j [1, N ] , then
d (m ) = d d ( [m j a j (1 )])
j =1 N

0,

that

= aj
j =1

m >0 f j

(4)

3 4

So m is a monotone increasing function about . LA ( x) denotes the membership degree on the left side of membership function curve, and it is also the maximum value that makes m x . Therefore, when m = x , is the membership degree on the left side membership function curve. When n fuzzy numbers multiply, one nth order equation will be solved with a given x value. However, if any ( (0,1) ) is given a value in the expression of m , the calculated result is the relatively smaller value of the two values when the membership degree is . Thus, by dividing into infinite segments, the membership function curve can be obtained when results N N are between [ j =1 (m j a j ) and j =1 m j ] . On the other hand, n is a monotone decreasing function about RA ( x) is the membership degree on the right side of membership function curve, and it is also the maximum value that makes m x . Similarly, the membership degree in [ j =1 m j , j =1 (m j + b j )] can
N N

TABLE III. INVESTIGATION TABLE OF RISK ON SEGMENT FLOATING, DISLOCATION AND CRACK IN SHIELD TUNNELING Probability of Occurrence of Risk
Probability range Confidence index

Structure Importance
Structure importance range Confidence index

Risk Event f1 f15

In Table III, the values of probability range and Importance Range refer to the Classification Criteria in Table IV; the confidence degrees on their judgment are filled in Familiarity in this Professional Area, which is ranging from 30% to 100%. For convenience, value that is below 3 is not suggested.
TABLE IV. CLASSIFICATION CRITERIA OF RISK PROBABILITY RANGE AND STRUCTURE IMPORTANCE RANGE Classification Criteria 1 8 15 Risk Probability Range 0.1~0.5 % 10.0~20.0 % 90.0~100.0 % Structure Importance Range 0.1~0.2 % 5.0~7.0 % 80.0~100.0 %

be obtained. The calculation can be accurate enough when s dividing intervals are as small as 0.001. E. Obtaining calculation data
This paper adopts the weighted average experts survey method to obtain and handle the statistical data of various risk factors. So the contents of the questionnaire mainly focus on the probability of f1 ~ f15 and structure importance. Selection of experts, rating of experts, and experts confidence index on the probability of each risk and the structure importance are shown in Table II.

The integrated evaluation procedures for each risk probability are as follows: 1) Assuming that the number of experts who give feedbacks on the questionnaire is m, there are totally N risk events, the calculation weight of ith expert is i , his or her prediction about the occurrence probability of the jth risk event is [ Lij , Rij ] , and this experts confidence index on
this judgment is kij .

In which,
r =
vr

2) Through the equation ij = Rij Lij , the intervals

(m
r =1

(5)
vr )
3

of probability sections of experts judgments can be obtained. The intervals of probability sections that are corresponding to ij can be referred in Table IV, and

the modification range ak ij of triangular fuzzy numbers can be referred in Table V.

MODIFICATION RANGE k BASED ON CONFIDENCE INDEX k AND SECTION INTERVAL (%)
TABLE V. Section Interval (%) 0.1 10 20 30 0 0 0 2.5 5 7.5 5 10 15 7.5 15 22.5 10 15 20 40 60 25 50 75 30 60 90 35 70 105 20 30 30 45 Confidence Index k
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

TABLE VI. FUZZY SITUATION OF OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY OF EACH RISK EVENT AND STRUCTURE IMPORTANCE Occurrence Probability (%)
Average value 6.833 13.833 22.000 25.000 7.167 2.833 8.667 14.500 7.000 6.833 1.000 3.667 1.167 6.000 7.833 Fuzzy range 3.458 6.833 10.667 11.458 4.125 3.083 4.000 6.875 3.125 3.333 0.417 1.833 0.625 3.000 3.917

Risk

Nonoccurrence Probability (%)

Average value 93.167 86.167 78.000 75.000 92.833 97.167 91.333 85.500 93.000 93.167 99.000 96.333 98.833 94.000 92.167 Fuzzy range 3.458 6.833 10.667 11.458 4.125 3.083 4.000 6.875 3.125 3.333 0.417 1.833 0.625 3.000 3.917

Structure Importance (%)

Average value 30.833 18.000 18.833 23.667 8.000 19.500 5.167 3.167 7.833 3.667 4.167 12.333 23.333 4.833 1.833 Fuzzy range 15.833 9.208 10.250 11.917 4.000 10.375 2.583 1.583 3.917 1.708 1.958 6.333 13.125 2.417 0.917

f1 f2 f3 f4 f5 f6 f7 f8 f9 f10 f11 f12 f13 f14 f15

0.025 0.05 0.075 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35

In Table V, firstly, use the ak in the row where the Section Interval is 10%, and the data in other rows be obtained on the basis of it. The data in the shadowing areas actually do not exist because the probability or structure importance varies only in the range of 0%~100%, thus ak must be equal to or less than 50% and this problem can be ignored in actual situation. 3) Assuming that mij = ( Lij + Rij ) / 2 , the contribution of ith expert to the probability of jth risk event is (6) 4) After modified by Confidence Index and weighted influence of m experts, the occurrence probability of the jth risk event becomes:
p j = i =1[i ( mij akij , mij , mij + akij )]
m

pij = i ( mij akij , mij , mij + akij )

IV.

CALCULATION OF FUZZY IMPORTANCE

= ( p jm a j , p jm , p jm + a j )

(7)

Therefore, number as well.

pj

is an isosceles triangular fuzzy

The method presented in this paper was adopted to express the probability p1 ~ p15 that the events f1 ~ f15 will not occur, then the curves of membership function of 15 j =1 p j can be obtained. On the basis of the equation k [ a1 , a 2 ] = [ k a1 , k a 2 ] k R the following conclusion can be drawn: assuming the fuzzy probability of certain event f is p, thus the nonoccurrence probability (1-p) of this event is also a fuzzy number and its membership degree at the point when horizontal ordinate equals to (1 pk ) is equal to the membership degree of p s membership function at the point when horizontal ordinate equals to pk . According to this, the membership function curve of 15 probability p A = 1 j =1 p j of top events in the fault tree can be obtained. Similarly, this curve is comprised of the points of each interval when each membership degree is different in value of 0.001. After the fuzzy probability pA of top event is obtained, the median value mTe can be obtained via median value method. If the risk f1 is not considered, the occurrence 15 probability of top event is p1A = 1 j = 2 p j .With the same method, the median value mT 1e which does not
4

It can also be obtained that the ultimate structure importance is an isosceles triangular fuzzy number. In (2), when c j is a fuzzy number, it needs to be transformed into an accurate value by median value method, thus its median value is the horizontal abscissa when the membership degree is 1, i.e. c j = c jm . F. Method of processing the experts survey data Since not all the data in experts survey are given in this paper, we transform the data into isosceles triangular fuzzy number with the criteria that average value and standard deviation of isosceles triangular fuzzy number are equal to those in [11] that are composed by CIM model. calculation, the A = (m a, m, m + a ) is: After standard deviation of

(8) EX = a / 6 In order to calculate risk probobility, the fuzzy situation of probability that each event does not occur must be calculated by using 1 A1 , the results are shown in Table VI.

consider risk f1 can also be obtained. Similarly, mT 2 e ~ mT 15e can be obtained which do not consider risks f2~ f15. In sum, the importance of fuzzy probability and structure importance of events can be obtained, shown in Table VII.
TABLE VII.

presented method is better than other previous methods. When modifying the experts marks using confidence index, the triangular fuzzy number is suggested for its simplicity.
VI.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

RANKING AND COMPARISON OF STRUCTURE IMPORTANCE OF EACH RISK

Structure Importance Median Value
Value (%)
0.772199 0.798465 0.797694 0.787666 0.814110 0.796257 0.818073 0.820750 0.814349 0.819959 0.819292 0.807806 0.789910 0.818525 0.822482

Risk

Importance of fuzzy probability

Value (%) Rank
10 4 2 1 8 13 5 3 7 9 15 12 14 11 6

Fuzzy Range
Value (%)
15.833 9.208 10.250 11.917 4.000 10.375 2.583 1.583 3.917 1.708 1.958 6.333 13.125 2.417 0.917

Structure Importance
Value (10-4)
0.004834 0.006200 0.011440 0.017174 0.001276 0.000877 0.001070 0.001162 0.001297 0.000580 0.000094 0.001008 0.000581 0.000662 0.000334

This work was supported by the Program for New Century Excellent TalentsMinistry of EducationP. R. China (No. NCET-06-0649) and the Key Program of Science and Technology Development of Wuhan Rail Transit, P. R. China(Grant No. -JZ-16-52)
VII. REFERENCES
[1] H. W. Huang, Y. R. Yan, Q. F. Hu. Risk analysis of cutter head failure of composite EPB shield, Rock and Soil Mechanics, vol. 30, No. 8, pp. 2324-2330, August 2009.(in Chinese) H. J. Tian, H. Z. Liu. Control technology of Segment floating in Wuhan Yangtze Shield Tunnel, Tunnel Construction, vol. 29, No. 3, pp. 364-366, June 2009.(in Chinese) L. Guo. Fault elimination of mixed face shield during construction, Modern Tunneling Technology, pp. 436-439, 2006(Supp.). (in Chinese) Z. Y. Liang, J. S. Chen, H. H. Mo and W. B. Zhu. Preliminary study on cracking segment of Guangzhou metro in construction phase, Guangdong architecture civil engineering, No.3, pp. 23-25, March 2004. (in Chinese) J. Zhao, Q. M. Gong, Z. Eisensten. Tunneling through a frequently changing and mixed ground: A case history in Singapore, Tunneling and Underground Space Technology, vol. 22, pp. 388-400, 2007. (in Chinese) B. Nilsen, F. Dahl, J. Holzhauser, et al. Abrasivity of soils in TBM tunneling, Tunnels & Tunneling International, vol. 3, pp. 36-38, 2006. S. Nabendererde, E. Hoek, P. Marinos, et al. Geological risk in the use of TBMs in heterogeneous rock masses-The case of Metro do Porto and the measures adopted//Geotechnical Risks in Rock Tunnels. London: Taylor & Francis, 2006. E. B. Richard, B. F. Jerry, D. S. Nozer. Reliability and Fault Tree Analysis, Philadelphia: Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, 1975. D. H. Shi, S. R. Wang. Fault tree analysis methods and theories, Beijing: Beijing Normal University Press, 1993. (in Chinese) B. Q. Hu. Foundations of Fuzzy Theory, Wuhan: Wuhan University Press, 2004. (in Chinese) L. Chen. Analysis and evaluation research on risk in shield tunnel construction on municipal soft soil [PhD Thesis]. Shanghai: Tongji university, 2004 (in Chinese) . Y. C. Wang, W. X. Yu, Z. W. Zhuang. A new method of the importance analysis of FTA, Journal of national university of defense technology, vol. 21, No.3, pp. 63-66, March 1999.(in Chinese) Q. Li, T. J. Lu. The study on the methods of fuzzy significance analysis, Fuzzy Systems and Mathematics, vol. 14, No. 1, pp. 89-93, January 2000 (in Chinese) .

Rank
15 10 11 14 8 12 6 2 7 3 4 9 13 5 1

Rank
1 6 5 3 8 4 10 14 9 13 12 7 2 11 15

Rank
4 3 2 1 6 10 8 7 5 13 15 9 12 11 14

f1 f2 f3 f4 f5 f6 f7 f8 f9 f10 f11 f12 f13 f14 f15

0.015678 0.034443 0.060742 0.072566 0.015956 0.004495 0.0207 0.036703 0.016551 0.015816 0.002261 0.00817 0.002492 0.013688 0.018213

[2]

[3]

[4]

[5]

[6]

V.

CONCLUTIONS
of segment floating, based on Fuzzy Fault achievements in this future research and

[7]

Researches on the analysis dislocation and cracking which is Tree are seldom. Therefore, the paper could be reference for construction of metro subways.

[8]

[9] [10] [11]

1) Based on representation theorem, the accurate calculation method for the multiplication of fuzzy numbers are derived, which lays solid foundation for the right application of fuzzy mathematics on Fault Tree Method. 2) From the perspective of structure importance, the risks of Posture of shield machine when advancing and Parameters of grouting material should be paid enough attention first. The risks of Hard layer that contains aquifer, Cracking of outer surface of segments and Uneven supporting pressure among segments should be avoided by improving construction techniques. 3) Through quantitative analysis of Fuzzy Fault Tree on the 15 bottom events, the ranking of the importance of each event is made, which can help determine the main factors of risks. 4) For the multiplication of triangular fuzzy numbers, based on representation theorem, a more accurate calculation method is proposed. The results show that the
5

[12]

[13]