Technical Research | December 19, 2011

Daily Technical Report

Sensex (15491) / NIFTY (4652)
On Friday, markets opened on a flat note and showed some signs of positive momentum during the first half. However, post announcement of RBI Monetary Policy indices tumbled sharply to break recent bottom of 15478 / 4639. On the sectoral front, Capital Goods, Realty and Banking were among the major losers. There was no sector in the positive territory. The advance to decline ratio was strongly in favor of declining counters. (A=847 D=1884). (Source www.bseindia.com)

Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart

Formation
On the Daily chart, we are witnessing a Downward Sloping Trend Line joining two lows of 15760 15479 / 4728 4639. On the Monthly chart, the 50% Fibonacci retracement
Source: Falcon

level of the rise from 7697 / 2252 (October 31, 2008) to 21108 / 6338 (November 30, 2010) is at 14400 / 4300.

Trading strategy:
Our benchmark indices opened marginally higher this week, but strong selling pressure at the higher level dragged indices to close near a new 52-week low. Going forward, if indices break Fridays low of 4628, then they are likely to test the 15330 / 4540 level, which also coincides with a Downward Sloping Trend Line, joining two lows of 15760 15479 / 4728 4639. Moreover, if indices sustain below the 15330 / 4540 level, then the possibility of testing the monthly 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the rise from 7697 / 2252 (October 31, 2008) to 21108 / 6338 (November 30, 2010) cannot be ruled out. This retracement level is at 14400 / 4300. On the upside, indices may face strong resistance near the 16142 / 4841 level.

Actionable points:
View Resistance levels Support levels Neutral 4841 4628 4540

Traders are advised to trade with caution and use strict stop losses.

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Technical Research | December 19, 2011

Bank Nifty Outlook - (8172)

Bank nifty opened on an optimistic note and traded in a narrow range during initial hours of trade. However, post announcement of the RBI monetary policy heavy selling pressure led the index to close at the lowest point in 2 years and also well below the 200 weeks SMA. On the daily chart the index has presently taken support on the trend line joining the lows of 8918 / 8626. We are witnessing a rise in ADX (14) indicator which is currently at 24.30, and suggests that the downtrend is gaining strength. A breach of Fridays low of 8127 will further intensify selling pressure, and may lead the index to test the next probable support level of 7961 7726 levels. On the upside, 8376 is likely to act as resistance in coming trading session. Actionable points: View Resistance Level Support Level
Neutral

Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Daily Chart

8376 8127 7961 - 7726

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Technical Research | December 19, 2011

Positive Bias:

Stock Name Bajaj Finserve

CMP 419.45

5 Day EMA 414.8

20 Day EMA 443.7

Expected Target 450

Remarks View will change below 395

Negative Bias:

Stock Name Apollo Tyres Cairn India

CMP 60.85 297.70

5 Day EMA 62 303.1

20 Day EMA 62.6 305.7

Expected Target 55 284

Remarks View will change above 63 View will change above 310

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Technical Research | December 19, 2011

Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty 50 Stocks

SCRIPS SENSEX NIFTY BANKNIFTY ACC AMBUJACEM AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTO BHARTIARTL BHEL BPCL CAIRN CIPLA DLF DRREDDY GAIL HCLTECH HDFC HDFCBANK HEROMOTOCO HINDALCO HINDUNILVR ICICIBANK IDFC INFY ITC JINDALSTEL JPASSOCIAT KOTAKBANK LT M&M MARUTI NTPC ONGC PNB POWERGRID RANBAXY RCOM RELCAPITAL RELIANCE RELINFRA RPOWER SAIL SBIN SESAGOA SIEMENS STER SUNPHARMA SUZLON TATAMOTORS TATAPOWER TATASTEEL TCS WIPRO S2 15,018 4,509 7,825 1,089 147 852 1,592 316 225 508 286 318 184 1,552 358 401 603 391 1,841 120 378 635 98 2,638 188 501 56 457 1,002 625 889 153 239 777 94 365 63 226 632 327 70 70 1,592 155 620 84 493 18 165 82 350 1,103 390 S1 15,255 4,580 7,998 1,109 150 878 1,621 327 233 518 292 325 189 1,579 368 407 615 403 1,883 123 386 656 101 2,681 192 509 57 469 1,037 643 910 157 244 803 96 374 65 236 677 338 72 72 1,635 159 634 86 503 18 169 85 358 1,125 397 PIVOT 15,662 4,700 8,301 1,138 154 921 1,665 340 244 530 301 332 198 1,609 378 413 630 422 1,943 127 395 685 106 2,735 198 521 60 483 1,096 666 930 164 252 845 99 382 68 253 761 354 76 76 1,709 164 657 91 515 20 174 90 370 1,154 403 R1 15,898 4,771 8,474 1,158 158 947 1,694 350 252 540 307 339 204 1,635 388 419 642 434 1,985 130 403 706 109 2,778 201 529 62 495 1,131 683 951 168 258 871 101 391 70 263 806 365 78 78 1,753 167 672 94 525 20 178 93 377 1,175 410 R2 16,306 4,890 8,776 1,187 162 990 1,737 363 263 552 316 347 213 1,666 398 426 658 452 2,045 135 412 735 114 2,832 207 542 65 508 1,190 706 971 174 265 913 103 400 73 279 889 380 81 82 1,826 173 695 98 537 22 184 98 389 1,204 416

Technical Research Team

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Technical Research | December 19, 2011 Technical Report

RESEARCH TEAM
Shardul Kulkarni Sameet Chavan Sacchitanand Uttekar Mehul Kothari Ankur Lakhotia Head - Technicals Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst

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