ADEN FORECAST

THE MONEY METALS MARKETS

DECEMBER 2011 As the year draws to a close, its easy to say that its been a difficult one. Thats mainly because of the high volatility in the markets, in reaction to the daily ups and downs on the world stage. Thankfully, we did well. We primarily stayed in gold and metals related investments, U.S. bonds and the U.S. dollar, avoiding stocks and currencies in the second half of the year. And while there were challenges along the way, we hope youre happy with the results, all things considered.

a year for the history books

of your questions as we can in our issues and updates, sometimes we cant. We love your e-mails and comments, but time simply doesnt permit a personal reply. We apologize, but if we did we wouldnt get our regular work done and, unfortunately, we had to make that decision some time ago. Following, however, are some of the most frequently asked questions that we havent been able to answer in recent issues Q. If gold is a safe haven, why does it go up and down so often with the stock market? A. Great question and that has been the case lately. This happens at times but over the long haul, gold is the ultimate safe haven and it will go its own way, based on the underlying fundamentals. Over the past decade, for example, gold has risen 645% while the Dow Industrials has only gained 13%. We believe this will continue based on the vulnerable global debt situation, the weak currency markets and many other factors weve often discussed. In fact, gold has maintained its safe haven status for thousands of years

our 30th year

ITS COMPLICATED
As youll see in this months issue, the overall global environment remains complicated, and its still having a strong effect on all of the markets (see Chart 1). Currently, the Fed and other big central banks have come to the worlds rescue, at least for the time being. Theyre basically bailing out Europe but there will be a price to pay. Well have more in this months issue, but for now All of this drama and volatility have both raised many questions. And while we try to answer as many
INSIDE
Turning up?

and there is not another investment, including any currency, that can make that claim. Q. When you say, use weakness to accumulate gold, does that also apply to silver? A. Yes. Q.Is it prudent to invest in the ETFs for gold and silver (GLD and SLV), considering they may not have the necessary amount of metals to cover the shares issued? A. Yes, this is a risk. Many say theres proof the metals are there, others are doubtful. The same is true of the gold held by the U.S... These days theres reason to question just about everything. Thats why we always say, owning physical gold and silver is your best and safest bet. Also, keep it close to you rather than having a third party hold it for you. While the ETFs provide an easy way to buy and profit from the rises in gold and silver, think of them as an index, like the Dow Industrials, rather than as a way to buy gold or silver. Q. Which dealers do you recommend for buying gold and having it delivered? A.We like Dana Samuelson at

U.S. & World Stock Markets .......... 3 U.S. Interest Rates & Bonds ..............5 Currencies ......................................... 6
U.S. dollar: Rising on safe haven wave Bonds end year at highs Bo

Merry Christmas & Happy New Year!

We wish you a very Merry Christmas and the best this holiday season, and throughout the year. Peace, happiness, love, health and wealth may they all be yours Thank you too for being a subscriber and for your ongoing support. We sincerely appreciate it. Our warmest regards, Pam, Mary Anne & the team at The Aden Forecast.

Gold: Holding at high area

Metals & Natural Resources .......... 8

December Aden Research Copyright 7, 2011

Volume 30 Number 12 December 7, 2011

www.amergold.com. Weve known him for many years and he provides a good service. Q. Youve discussed an 11 year gold cycle thats due to peak in 2012 and a 17 year cycle that has years to run. Will you tell us when to sell? A. Of course. Also, as a reminder a cycle doesnt mean it has to happen the same way it did before. Golds rise, for example, could last longer than 11 years and it could be overpowered by the 17 year commodity cycle. Its also likely that the current situation is so unprecedented compared to anything thats happened since 1971, golds upmove will be totally different. Well continue to take it as it comes and while were open to these possibilities, for now, gold is still a great investment. Q. Is gold manipulated? A. Probably yes, at times. But since the major trend is always more powerful, manipulation effects will be temporary. Q. As a new subscriber, how do I start buying what you recommend? A. You may want to average in on the investments listed on page 12, over a few months, buying some now, some next month and so on. Buying on weakness during a major uptrend is our favorite way to buy new positions. Q. I find it difficult to interpret some of your recommendations some are not followed up on in your weekly updates. What does, keep your positions mean? A. We try to be specific with our recommendations, especially on page 12 in our monthly letters. But our weekly updates are indeed updates. Unless there is a specific change to be made, well usually touch on whats happening in more general terms. Keep your positions means to keep the investments weve been recommending, but also

CHART 1 keep accumulating if we previously

2011: QUICK VIEW

WINNERS: U.S BONDS (GOVT) & GOLD U.S. BONDS

GOLD PRICE

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

SILVER PRICE

EURO

S&P 500

HONG KONG

BRAZIL

said that too. Buy on weakness also means just that. But if there is no weakness, then continue averaging in if thats what we said to do... Hope this helps. Q. When you say, stay out of stocks, do you also mean precious metals stocks? A. No. We mean all stocks, except metals stocks. Since theyre in the metals related category, well always specify which metals stocks to sell in our Metals Recommendation on page 12. Q. When you change the order of strength for your recommendations, are we supposed to rebalance based on these monthly changes? A. No! Strength will change but if a stock is listed, we still recommend it. For new buyers, or those who want to add to their positions, then buy the strongest ones. Q. Do you know of a company or individual who follows your recommendations and could manage our money based on your advice? A. No, were sorry but we dont. Q. How can I learn more about technical analysis? A. Two great books are How Charts Can Help You in the Stock Market by William Jiler and Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by Robert Edwards and John Magee. They were published years ago but theyre the best for those who want to learn the basics of technical analysis. Q. Whos going to take over The Aden Forecast if you retire or die? A. At this point, were not planning to retire. We love what we do. Our role models are Harry Schultz and Richard Russell, who are keen market observers in their 80s, and theyre still writing. If one of us were to die, the other would carry on. If we were to die together... well, well give this more thought.
The Aden Forecast P.O. Box 790260 St. Louis, MO 63179-9927
In Costa Rica: Ph: 506-2271-2293 Fax: 506-2272-6261

JAN

2011

Editors:

Mary Anne Aden Pamela Aden

www.adenforecast.com info@adenforecast.com

Published monthly by Aden Research. Also includes access to a weekly update $250 per year. Send all customer service or market related questions to Aden Research, Dept. SJO 874, P.O. Box 025331, Miami, Florida 33102-5331 or E-mail info@adenforecast.com Questions will be answered in future issues. Copyright Aden Research 2011. All rights reserved. The Editors may have a position in the securities recommended and may change such positions without notice. This publications sole intended purpose is to provide investment-related information and opinions to subscribers. FREE WEEKLY UPDATE every Wednesday at 8 P.M. (Eastern time). You can access it through our website, http://www. adenforecast.com. To receive the market update by fax every week $160 per year for U.S. subscribers and $260 for subscribers outside the U.S. FASTER NEWSLETTER DELIVERY OPTIONS: Downloading from the website, no extra charge. Fax only, $65 more per year for U.S. subscribers and $170 more outside the U.S. Air Mail and Fax, $90 more per year for U.S. subscribers and $220 more outside the U.S. Make checks payable to Aden Research, S.A.

1-305-395-6141

from the U.S. dial 011 first, otherwise dial 00 Copyright Aden Research

December 7, 2011

U.s. & WorLD stoCk Markets

turning up?
Stock markets around the world headed higher this month, following a steep decline. This was in reaction to the bold concerted move by the major central banks to come to Europes aid. Following months of tension and bad news, the markets were happy that something was finally being done, and they rose sharply. The big question now is, will it last? falling steeply and when Germany started showing cracks in its foundation, thats when the big central banks stepped in. Many world leaders had desperately called for help, acknowledging that if Europe goes, the global economy will too. So led by the Fed, and in an obvious attempt to avoid a 2008 repeat, the central banks poured U.S. dollars at the problem and it worked. So many questions, but only time will tell We all know that all of this new money will eventually result in inflation. That in turn will mean higher interest rates, which are bad for stocks, and a much weaker U.S. dollar.

MARKET LEADS
On the other hand, we have to remember that new bull markets generally begin when the news is bad. Since the markets look ahead by about six months, they see whats coming and they always lead global events and the news. And there are some bright signs Unemployment in the U.S. finally dropped below 9% to a 2 year low. Holiday spending was up sharply and the world is determined to help Europe, whatever the cost, and avoid a global recession. Asia remains strong and its been doing its own thing, despite some problems. In other words, theres a good chance the Fed and the other central banks have saved the day yet again, at least for the time being.

PLUGGING THE DIKE...

Unfortunately, thats still to be seen. As you can see on Chart 2, most of the global stock markets are still marginal or bearish. That is, theyre not out of the woods yet and this upmove could end up being just a temporary pause. For now, we need to see how things evolve from here. Most important is Europe because its been the dominating wild card, affecting all of the markets. And its fundamental problems have not gone away. On the contrary, theyve gotten worse. In fact, the situation was deteriorating so quickly, it became obvious that Germany was standing alone as the lender of last resort for the entire Eurozone. Stocks were

... BUT WILL IT REALLY WORK?

Stock markets breathed a sigh of relief as the immediate risk of a global recession was lifted. At least some action was being taken and stocks liked all of the new liquidity. We all know, this same type of action worked in 2008, resulting in a strong upmove for stocks worldwide. But will it work again in a world thats far more in debt than it was then? All factors considered, its estimated that the Fed spent over $7 trillion to save the global economy from the brink as of early 2009. This latest effort is expected to be even larger. Can the Fed keep saving the world?

WELL SOON SEE EFFECTS

If so, then stocks will rise further. For now, well have to wait and let
CHART 2

MEXICO BEST, BUT NOT SO GREAT, YET COULD BOUNCE UP FURTHER

WORLD MSCI NASDAQ COMP. MEXICO IPC CHINA SHANGHAI GERMANY DAX TURKEY ISE 100

AT 2740 AT 1255 AT 2630 AT 35800 AT 6655 AT 62720

JUL 10

2011

JUL 10

2011

JUL 10

2011

JUL 10

2011

JUL 10

2011

JUL 10

2011

- - - 65 WEEK MOVING AVERAGE IS KEY MAJOR TREND.

Copyright Aden Research

December 7, 2011

the markets tell the story. Then well invest based on what theyre saying. Heres what were watching now The moving averages are always important. If the stock indices rise and/or stay above the levels shown on Chart 2, it would be a good sign that stocks are headed higher. Since the international stock markets are nearly all technically bearish, below their averages, wed want to see positive strength pretty much across the board. That hasnt happened yet, but it could. For the Dow Industrials the number to watch is 11750 (see Chart 3). Currently, the Dow is above that level, which is positive. If it can stay above 11750, and esCHART 4

CHART 3

TURNING BEARISH?
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
2007

65 WEEK MOVING AVERAGE AT 11750 65 WEEK MOVING AVERAGE AT 11750

tors are excited, when you look at the Industrials in a currency thats been strong over the years, a different picture emerges (see Chart 5). In Swiss franc terms, for instance, the Dow is totally unattractive and it has been for the past 10 years. Thats the way international investors are viewing the U.S. stock market, which illustrates why theyre opting for other opportunities.

ACTION TO TAKE
We recommend staying put for the time being. The market is volatile, mixed and risk remains high. Dont worry, we wont miss the boat. If this indeed proves to be a renewed bull market rise, similar to the one in 2009-10 following the last liquidity injection, well have plenty of time to get in. In the meantime, were far safer staying on the sidelines. Maintain caution, be patient and let the market tell the story. It will soon enough and we dont advise reacting because some excitement is in the air. Its far better to wait for more solid evidence.
CHART 5

DOW JONES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE WATCH HIGHS...

2007 2008

WHICH WAY NEXT?

a

65 WEEK MOVING AVERAGE AT 4950

NYSE

COMPOSITE

2007

DOW

NTR

07
END

08

09

10

11

65 WEEK MOVING AVERAGE AT 7815 2002 FINAL SUPPORT 2008

LEADING INDICATOR (MEDIUM-TERM) Bouncing up from lows

HIGH AREA

pecially if it closes and stays above 12230, the Dow could technically keep rising to its 2007 high near 14000. The Dow Transportations, Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are all near their averages, but more is needed. In other words, the signs are mixed and, despite the strong upmoves, this strength has yet to be confirmed.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE

a ...IN US DOLLARS
2000 2007

WARNING SIGN
TEMPORARILY TOO LOW

LEADING INDICATOR (LONG-TERM) On the decline... bearish reading

OVERBOUGHT AREA

OVERSOLD

AREA

02

03

04 05 06

07 08 09 10

11

Another warning sign is being flashed by the NYSE (see Chart 4). Lets take a closer look It too is resisting at its moving average and below a downtrend thats been in force since 2007. So overall, thats not a good sign for the market. Plus, the leading (long-term) indicator keeps declining, signaling the market is going lower. The medium-term indicator, however, is rising This is telling us that stocks will likely rise further in the weeks ahead before it heads down again. Meanwhile, even though inves-

BEARISH IN A STRONG CURRENCY b ...IN SWISS FRANCS

2000 2007

DOWNCHANNEL SINCE 2000 PEAK

95 00 05 10 11

December 7, 2011

Copyright Aden Research

U.s. iNterest rates aND boNDs

bonds end year at highs
CHART 6
30 YEAR YIELD INVERTED A WILD RIDE
EUROPE INTERVENTION

Bond prices surged this month. Interest rates fell further as demand for U.S. bonds gained momentum, driving rates lower. And then they reversed their direction as volatility shook the markets, thanks to some recent optimism in Europe. Nevertheless, U.S. bonds are still the worlds favorite safe haven. Investors remain concerned about the European debt crisis, and the long term repercussions this will have on the global economy.

U.S. BONDS

QE 2 STARTS

QE 2 OVER U.S. GOVT NEGATIVE CREDIT RISK

U.S. BONDS: Most attractive

German bonds had also been a safe haven. But now theyre feeling the heat. German bonds simply arent as desirable as they were before. That leaves U.S. bonds as the most attractive safety option. Theres really no competition and thats why U.S. bonds have been rising (see Chart 6). Theyre strong and bullish and thatll likely continue until the current crisis is finally resolved. This could take a long time. In the meantime, U.S. bonds are a good bet and you should hold onto them.

2010

2011

EUROPES TOUGHEST HOUR

As you know, the European debt crisis has become a domino type effect. And yes, it could trigger a 2008 repeat. German Chancellor Merkel
CHART 7
The Federal Reserves holdings of U.S. Treasury debt compared to the Treasury holdings of the Peoples Bank of China TREASURY HOLDINGS IN BILLIONS

FEDS VS. REDS

called this Europes toughest hour since World War II. Its almost like they didnt know what to do anymore. The European Central Bank (ECB) was warning that the area may slip back into a recession and the situation was extremely severe. Other countries were upset that more wasnt being done. In Spain, voters booted out the spenders opting instead for a conservative government that will take austerity measures. The new leaders in Italy and Greece are economists but one has ties to Goldman Sachs, which helped trigger the 2008 mess to begin with. In this tense environment, when push came to shove, the Fed and several other central banks became the lenders of last resort. This put downward pressure on U.S. bonds because the need for a safe haven wasnt as intense as it was before the Fed took action. But again, until the bond market indicates otherwise, U.S. bonds remain a safe haven.

Plus, the U.S. dollar is still the worlds reserve currency. As long as the rest of the world keeps accepting U.S. dollars and bonds, then all is well, at least for the time being. But at some point, the piper will have to be paid. Lets look at the facts The U.S. has total debt and liabilities of over $116 trillion. That amounts to about $1 million per taxpayer. In other words, the U.S. is following in the Eurozones footsteps, only on a larger scale. Even though there have been a few bright signs, U.S. unemployment remains high. Yes, it came down this month, but workers are still losing jobs. Poverty is at a record high. Half of homeowners are underwater and the middle class can barely keep up. Congress cant agree on anything and the Super Committee had to declare failure. They dont know where to cut spending, which could mean yet another credit downgrade. The result is, the Fed is buying most of the U.S. debt (bonds). Theyve now surpassed China as the U.S.s biggest lender (see Chart 7). But theyre using printing press dollars to do this. This will fuel inflation down the line, especially combined with this latest bout of new liquidity, but its the best the world has to offer.
CHART 8 GLOBAL BOND YIELDS
50 ITALY

U.S. Federal Reserve

THE LESSER EVIL THEORY

We know that many of you are skeptical. How can the U.S. be a safe haven when it too has so many problems? For now, its basically the lesser evil. The U.S. also has a printing press, and other countries dont.
SPAIN 0 FRANCE

The Peoples Bank of China

12/1/02 5/1/03 10/1/03 3/1/04 8/1/04 1/1/05 6/1/05 11/1/05 4/1/06 9/1/06 2/1/07 7/1/07 12/1/07 5/1/08 10/1/08 3/1/09 8/1/09 1/1/10 6/1/10 11/1/10 4/1/11 9/1/11

GERMANY
2011 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV

COURTESY: WWW.AGORAFINANCIAL.COM

COURTESY: www.bloomberg.com

Copyright Aden Research

December 7, 2011

RATES TO RISE AT SOME POINT

This is obviously not a healthy situation. The Fed says interest rates will stay low until 2013, but the markets call the shots. At some point, interest rates are going to rise big time. It hasnt happened yet, but eventually it will. Global interest rates generally move together. And, European interest rates have been on the rise (see Chart 8). Based strictly on the fundamentals, U.S. rates will follow. And when this happens, well want to sell our bonds because theyll likely fall sharply. In other words, the U.S.s current safe haven status will probably not be long lasting. If the Fed, for example, keeps flooding the world with fresh U.S. dollars, rates could soar sooner, rather than later.
a
2008

CHART 9

10 YEAR YIELD: Ready to move up

2008

HOLDING AT 2008 LOWS

LEADING INDICATOR (MEDIUM-TERM) Rising from oversold area

TEMP. OVERBOUGHT AREA

WEAK ECONOMY=RISING BONDS

For now, the weak economy is

TEMP.

OVERSOLD

AREA

2008

2009

2010

2011

also boosting bonds. If interest rates start rising strongly, however, itll be another story. Bond yields are still extremely oversold but the leading indicator is finally on the rise (see Chart 9). This suggests rates could move higher at any time. And when they do, bond prices will fall. All it would take is a shift in sentiment in this very fickle market. So stay alert if you have bonds and well keep you posted. If you havent bought bonds, continue to wait for a better buying opportunity. The major interest rate trend will remain down as long as the 30 year yield stays below 4.40%. If rates rise and then resist near that level, youd want to buy bonds. But if rates move above that level, all bond investors would then want to get out because the mega interest rate trend would be turning up, meaning interest rates are headed much higher.

U.s. dollar: rising on safe haven wave

The currencies fell sharply and all of them are now bearish. That is, theyre headed lower. Developments in the Eurozone dominated the markets. The news seemed to go from bad to worse and the euro was hammered in the process, leading the way for the other currencies (see Chart 10). At that point, the markets turned around. Still, the major trends are down, despite the wild swings... Its really been fascinating and heres how it unfolded this month. in Italy, concerns about the debt crisis spread like wildfire. And interest rates basically told the story Yields on Italian bonds surged, reflecting the higher risk in Italy. Then it spread... Interest rates in other countries started rising or moving up more quickly. But this didnt just happen in
CHART 10

CUrreNCies

GREECE & ITALY... FIRST

Following the resignations of the Greek Prime Minister and Berlusconi

FEELING THE PAIN

SWISS FRANC
AUG

EURO

APR

CANADIAN DOLLAR APR

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR APR

NEW ZEALAND JUL DOLLAR

AT 1.10

AT 1.3850

AT 1.008

AT 1.018

AT .7850

MAY 2010

2011

MAY 2010

2011

MAY 2010

2011

MAY 2010

2011

MAY 2010

2011

- - - 65 WEEK MOVING AVERAGE IS MAJOR TREND

December 7, 2011

Copyright Aden Research

CHART 11
FRANCE, THE NEWEST PIIGS NATION
Spread in percentage points The yield on 10 year French government bonds minus the yield on 10 year German government bonds

interest rates and precious metals.

GERMANY FEELING SHOCK

At that point, the world became very nervous... The biggest sign was the failure of Germanys latest bond auction. This came as a shock because it struck at the very pillar of confidence in Germany. It reflected the first doubts. German interest rates were rising. And while they were still much lower than rates in the risky countries, German rates were moving in the same direction, and this was a warning signal for all of the markets. Thats when the worlds central banks stepped in and itll now be very important to see what happens next... Time will soon tell. In the meantime, the currencies are bearish and the U.S. dollar is strong. So again, do not hold any of the international currencies at this time, or at least keep these to a minimum.

CHART 12 NOT GOING TO COLLAPSE JUST YET

a U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
80 MONTH MOVING AVERAGE IS MEGA DOWNTREND AT 81.30

COURTESY: WWW.AGORAFINANCIAL.COM

2008

2011

risky countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy. Countries like Austria and Finland that had nothing to do with the crisis, were also feeling the pressure. This was a strong sign that investors where losing faith in the entire Eurozone. France, which had been holding its own, was particularly hard hit and this added to an overall loss of confidence Following is an example of what we mean, courtesy of Eric Fry

LEADING INDICATOR (LONG-TERM) Rising from oversold area

OVERBOUGHT AREA

OVERSOLD AREA

Jul 07

2008

2009

2010

2011

...PANIC TOOK OVER

For years, French and German bonds held steady in relation to one another (see Chart 11). But looking at the difference between these two rates, you can see French yields have recently soared. So even though France has never defaulted during the past 200 years and it has a AAA rating, its being thrown into the risky country category. The bottom line, panic was starting to take hold. Investors, bankers and citizens were extremely worried. That drove the currencies lower, across the board. Everyone knew that if Europe were to fail, it would affect the worldwide global economy. This explains why countries as far away as Australia, Canada and New Zealand were under downward pressure too. The region is facing a truly systemic crisis, the EC President said. Germany was bearing the brunt for all of the Eurozone. Increasingly, it became apparent that Germany would determine the regions future, as well as the next direction for the global stock markets, commodities,

U.S. DOLLAR: King for now

Okay, we know it doesnt make sense, but the U.S. dollar is currently king. Its the worlds safe haven for cash. Sure, the U.S. has huge problems too, but its doing better than Europe and thats what the markets are focusing on (see Chart 12). So, we go with it and keep our cash in U.S. dollars. As you can see, the U.S. dollar index hit a new high for this years upmove and its likely headed higher. In fact, it could keep rising until it reaches major resistance at its mega trend near 81.30. Then
CHART 13

well see what happens. If the dollar halts there, well reevaluate our position. But if it keeps going, itll be extremely strong and well stay with the dollar. Remember, the markets tell the story. We may not agree with what theyre saying, but it would be a mistake to fight them. Since they lead, the reasons why will always become obvious in time.

YEN & YUAN

Currently, for instance, two of the few currencies that are bucking the worldwide bearish trend are the Japanese yen and Chinas renminbi (see Chart 13). The Japanese, however, have been intervening to weaken the yen and its days are likely numbered. In other words, its probably just a matter of time until the yen joins the currency bear market parade. China is another story. Theyre the worlds fastest growing economy and they have been for a long time. China has also been taking steps to build global goodwill. Theyve also been increasing their gold reserves, making trade agreements with many countries using their own currencies, and theyre

THE ASIAN CORNER

CHINESE RENMINBI (YUAN) JAPANESE YEN

SAFE HAVEN, BUT NOT FOR LONG

2010 2011 2010 2011

Copyright Aden Research

December 7, 2011

looking to eventually become the worlds reserve currency. In the U.S., Obama has decided to send troops to Australia, in the biggest deployment since World War II, in order to counter Chinas grow-

ing influence in the region, despite the fact that Asia has been peaceful. As our dear friend Chuck Butler noted talk about biting the hand that feeds you. And so it goes As weve often discussed, a global

shift is slowly happening from West to East. Itll probably take several years but with U.S. debt at unsustainable levels, the U.S. dollar will unlikely be king over the long haul. But stay with it for now.

MetaLs, NatUraL resoUrCes & eNerGy GoLD: holding at high area

The gold price has been holding up firmly and its been staying closer to the higher side. This is not really surprising considering all the problems in the world. Each day that passes is another chapter in the ongoing crises. Political events are moving the markets and theyll likely continue to dominate for the time being. Silver is holding firmly above $30, which is also a good sign. In fact, the late September - early October lows in most markets are key. If gold and silver, for example, stay above their closing lows at $1594 and $29.83, the markets are strong.
CHART 14

COMPETITIVE DEVALUATIONS

NEAR RECORDS
a GOLD PRICE IN SWISS FRANC TERMS

STRONG UPTREND SINCE 2005 b LEADING INDICATOR (MEDIUM-TERM) At high area, upside limited for now

TEMPORARILY

TOO HIGH

TEMP. 05 06

TOO 07 08

LOW 09 10 11

getting worse. Investors want proIn the end, no country wants a tection and value. So its really no strong currency, which is why gold wonder why demand is so strong. Meanwhile, gold is strong above is desirable. Chart 14A shows a $1650 and it would begin a renewed good example of this. It shows gold in Swiss Franc terms. Here you can rise above $1800. see the strength of golds bull market STRONG ONGOING DEMAND since 2005. Gold is indeed in high demand.... Gold moved sideways in 2010 especially investment demand. Acwhen the Swiss Franc was soaring cording to the World Gold Council, in dollar terms. But once the Swiss the latest quarter was the third highgovernment intervened to stem the est for investment demand on record. strong rise you can see that the gold price jumped up to a new record It was up 33% year on year. Investors around the world have high. For now, the gold CHART 15 price is overbought in Swiss Franc terms as D DECLINE NEAR AN END? 2011 the indicator (B) is at the C high area. But in U.S. dollar terms, the gold GOLD price is finally oversold, D? PRICE 2008 for the first time since A C 2008 (see Chart 15). Weve been waiting for 2006 B the indicator to develop C A into a decline we call a D B D low, and now it finally - - - 65 - - -65 Week Week Moving gave in for the first time D Moving Average average is key uptrend in 3 years! at trend is key $1520at $1230 The previous rise we D call C was an amazing LEADING INDICATOR (MEDIUM-TERM): b one for several reasons. Finally fell to lows... 1st time since 2008 This rise since April 2009 C moved golds bull market C C A HIGH AREA into a stronger phase, A and it was the very best intermediate rise in the bull market. Gold gained 120%. This rise was very tellB ing. It told us the world B OVERSOLD AREA D D has changed. The 2008 D meltdown problems are D still with us and theyre 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

December 7, 2011

Copyright Aden Research

CHART 16

GOLD SHARES: Still weaker than gold, but for long?

HUI GOLD BUGS INDEX

65 Week Moving Average at 548

HUI/GOLD RATIO: Favors gold, but bottoming

2009

the window. Meanwhile, its not a coincidence that central banks as a whole made a dramatic shift in gold purchases about two years ago. They became net buyers and their buying in the third quarter continued to grow. Their net gold purchases, for example, totalled 150 tonnes, which was more than double the yearly total in 2010. Yes, demand is surging. Gold is the mirror for the monetary world, which is why there is both fear buying and prosperity buying. Gold is a store of value and its a good investment.

GOLD SHARES TO CATCH UP?

25 Week Moving Average SUPPORT

b1

LEADING INDICATOR (MEDIUM-TERM) Rising from lows to favor HUI

GOLD SHARES TOO HIGH

GOLD SHARES TOO LOW 2009 2010 2011

been buying mainly for wealth preservation. This is an important point, and one main reason why gold will continue rising in the years ahead. In the Western world its been different... gold is being purchased, in good part, on fear... fear of uncertainty. Global demand, however, is being driven by prosperity. Gold has become a reserve asset class as investors and individuals continue to rediscover gold. Plus, and probably even more impressive, have been the gold purchases by the central banks. Weve all seen the massive money creation by the central banks to save the banking system. The latest concerted effort by six central banks was the most telling. Monetary discipline has gone out

Okay, then why are the gold stocks trading at their cheapest level in nine years? Gold shares are cheap. When you consider that industry profits are estimated to almost double this year, while gold itself is trading close to record highs, you have to agree that theyre at good value levels. CHART 17 Gold shares started falling behind golds GOLD STRONGER strength about seven a 2008 GOLD/GOLD MINING RATIO months ago in April. This 2000 separation coincided with 1980 the peak in the stock market and the start of the weakness in the resource sector. A troubling economy affected 2007 the gold shares too. Theyve still been a LD O SG OR good investment, its just FAV 70s END HE 19 TR that gold has been stronGA INCE T ME S ger. Chart 16 shows that 1974 the HUI index is still holdb GOLD/SILVER RATIO ing on to its major sup1990 SILV port, the 65 week moving ER S 2008 TRO NGE R average, which is a good sign. Meanwhile, the HUI 1970s RESIST... ... IS GOLD to gold ratio (B) clearly SUPPORT 1998 shows this discrepancy as the ratio fell this year. 2011 But its now starting to look like a bottom may be SIDEWAYS forming. TO DOWN DOWN SIDEWAYS UP 1980s 1970s 1990s 2000s This is being backed 71 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 up by the ratios leading

indicator (B1), as its rising from a low area. This means gold shares may be poised to outperform gold in the upcoming months. Another interesting way to look at gold compared to gold shares, is to look at the big picture. Chart 17A shows the flip side... gold compared to gold shares since 1971. Here you can see the mega trend has favored gold since 1974. Plus, gold became much stronger than gold shares in 2007, at the start of the financial meltdown. The ratio, however, is now approaching its 2008 high near the top side of the mega channel. Since this 2008 peak represented maximum fear during that crisis, its a good high area to use, comparing it with whats happening today. That is, a similar situation like in 2000 could be upcoming where gold shares outperform gold. In other words, stay invested in both gold and the strongest gold shares.

Copyright Aden Research

December 7, 2011

CHART 18

STEADY AND READY

a SILVER PRICE

65 Week Moving Average is key support at $33

LEADING INDICATOR (MEDIUM-TERM) Oversold

SILVER TEMPORARILY TOO HIGH

SILVER TEMPORARILY TOO LOW

2008

2009

2010

2011

Silver: In its own league

Silver, however, has been stronger than gold, and Chart 17B shows this best. Silvers strength over gold can clearly be seen since 1990 when the ratio began to decline. There are several interesting things to point out here, but first note that the 1970s peak resistance area has become golds support since the 80s. In 1998 and again this year when this level was broken, gold quickly rebounded, outperforming silver. Each case was for a different reason. In 1998, golds bull market

started two years before CHART 20 silvers did,which is why OIL/COPPER the ratio rose. Then 1985 2003 RATIO in 2011, silver soared CO PP 2008 ER STR much more than gold ON GE R did and the ratio fell to an extreme. The ratio has been rebounding since April in favor of gold, and 2011 2006 while this will likely conR E OPP tinue, silver still has the NC THA TER upper edge. The 1990s BET BLOODLINE VS OIL GLOBAL GROWTH downtrend (that favors 1988 silver) has been tested 85 90 95 00 05 10 twice, and both times it was when silver fell to turn for the better, at least for the an extreme low. If this downtrend is tested, will it moment. We know the debt monster be for the same reason? Well soon is lurking in the background and find out. If silvers leading indicator it will continue to weigh heavily on on Chart 18B is any indication, we the economy. But just based on the are at a good intermediate buying resource and energy movements, area now. Remember, when silver theyre starting to reflect a world takes off, it doesnt look back. economy thats doing okay. Commodities have continued Its best to be onboard and wait to beat equities for the fifth confor the train to take off. Meanwhile, silver is holding secutive year. This is a sign that firmly above $30 and it has been for demand from developing economies two months now, since reaching its is sustaining global growth. Another positive sign was the low in early October. Chart 18A shows that silver is strength in U.S. exports through holding near its 65 week moving September. The latest report showed average and as long as it stays that U.S. exports to emerging counabove the October low, its form- tries was up 20%. Developing countries seem to be ing a great base. Its important to have a solid silver position and to leading the world out of recession and it may become more noticeable accumulate. as 2012 unfolds. IS THE EMERGING WORLDS They now account for 55% of CONSUMER LEADING? U.S. goods shipments. Including The U.S. economy is starting to oil and natural gas, its up an inCHART 19

CRUDE HOLDING UP BEST

COPPER PLATINUM PALLADIUM CRUDE OIL

AT $4.00

AT $1730 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010

AT $720

AT $92 2009 2010 2011

2009

2010

2011

2011

- - - 65 WEEK MOVING AVERAGE IS MAJOR TREND

December 7, 2011

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Copyright Aden Research

credible 40% since 2000. The emerging world has grown fast and its becoming the worlds engine of growth. Meanwhile, the U.S. has become a net exporter of oil products for the first time since 1949! This is a real boost for exports as they supply the large countries of the Americas. Crude oil has been up all month, its been stronger than the base metals and it looks comfortable holding near the b $100 level. Chart 19 shows oil holding above its major support, the 65 week moving average, while copper, platinum and palladium are below their moving averages. In fact, Chart 20 shows oil compared to copper since 1985. Here you can clearly see that the mega trend since 1988 favors oil. That is, the bloodline of the world is stronger than the basic material for global infrastructure. The ratio bounced up from its 23 year uptrend this year, favoring oil over copper. Its now to be seen if the ratio can break above the downtrend. As you can see, this trend has been favoring copper since 2003 when copper first took off, soaring with global growth. Taking a bigger picture look at copper on Chart 21A, note that copper has basically been holding near

copper will continue to give a mega bullish reading. FORMING MASSIVE TOP? You can see that in 2004 2011 when copper soared, it moved a 2006 into a major bull market... COPPER the first ever of this kind in PRICE 1979-2011 demand and force. Once copper joins oil and rises back above its 65 week moving average at $4.00, it will renew its bull market. THE CE SIN 0s Meanwhile, it looks like 197 Caterpillar could be leading EL the base metals, including ANN PCH AU G 1999 copper, in renewed global ME demand. LEADING INDICATOR (EXTRA LONG-TERM): 2006 Chart 22 shows CAT has Falling from high area & room bounced up in recent months, to go further while the base metals contin2011 ue on their weak and sluggish path. Caterpillar is the worlds MAJOR HIGH AREA largest construction and mining equipment maker, making it also a good barometer of world growth. We sold Caterpillar last Summer and we may MAJOR LOW AREA be buying it again. 1999 2009 The grains are similar to the base metals. 2011 was not a great year for the commodity 79 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 sector as a whole. But Deere, the top of a mega up channel since the worlds largest farm equipment 2006! This chart was telling us ear- maker, is also a barometer for the lier this year that coppers upside soft commodities (see Chart 23). Overall, the resource and energy was limited as it was overbought, sectors are looking better, but the in a major high area (B). This years decline relieved this markets in general have more work overbought situation and now cop- to do before a bull market can be per is neutral. If it stays above the clearly confirmed. Were watching upper side of the mega channel, this closely.
CHART 21 CHART 22 CHART 23

IS CATERPILLAR LEADING RESOURCES? CATERPILLAR (CAT) BASE METALS

2011: NOT A GOOD YEAR

IS DEERE LEADING GRAINS? DEERE (DE) THE GRAINS...

DOWN YEAR FOR MANY

100 = JAN 2011 JAN 2011 JAN 2011 JAN 2011 JAN

100 = JAN 2011 2011

Copyright Aden Research

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December 7, 2011

OVERALL PORTFOLIO RECOMMENDATION

As the year draws to a close, its been a challenging one. Volatility was the name of the game, in reaction to the ongoing drama on the world stage. The overall global environment remains complicated and its still affecting all of the markets. Currently, the Fed and the worldss big central banks have come to the worlds rescue, but there will be a price to pay. The bottom line... gold, U.S. bonds and the U.S. dollar are still the best safe haven investments and we advise staying with them. As for stocks, see below.
25% Long-term U.S. government bonds

35% Cash:
US dollar

PRECIOUS METALS, ENERGY, RESOURCE RECOMMENDATION Gold and silver are holding quietly firm. Gold has stayed well above its late September lows while silver is basing above the $31 level. Demand is keeping the prices firm. Gold is strong above $1650, its becoming oversold and a 40% renewed rise will be getting started above $1800. Silver is basing and its best Precious Metals to continue accumulating coins, bars and ETFs in both gold and silver during Gold & silver physical weakness. Keep in mind, once silver takes off, it doesnt look back. Its best & ETFs & gold & silver shares to be onboard and wait for the train to take off. Keep the positions you have. Also, continue to keep our recommended gold and silver shares (see box). If you have others that are holding up well, keep them as well. Energy and resource shares are looking better and they may be getting closer to a buy area, but its still premature to buy. Caterpillar may be leading the way for the resource sector and well be keeping a close eye on these stocks. U.S. AND GLOBAL STOCK MARKET RECOMMENDATION Stock markets around the world headed higher this month on better news out of Europe. Nevertheless, most of the global markets remain marginal or bearish and we need to see more. For now, the market is mixed, volatile and risk remains high. Until we see evidence of real change, we recommend staying on the sidelines. Maintain caution, be patient and let the market tell the story. If this proves to be a renewed bull market rise, well have plenty of time to get in... but not yet. CURRENCIES RECOMMENDATION The currencies fell sharply and all of them are now bearish. That is, theyre headed lower. The euro led the way down and we do not recommend holding any of the international currencies at this time. The U.S. dollar is currently the king of currencies and the worlds safe haven for cash. While the other currencies were declining, for instance, the U.S. dollar index hit a new high for this years upmove and it could keep rising to the 81.30 level as its next target. Continue to keep your cash in U.S. dollars for the time being and hold UUP. OUR OPEN POSITIONS
GOLD & SILVER ETFs AND SHARES Royal Gold iShares Comex Gold SPDR Gold Shares Silver Wheaton Central Fd of Can iShares Silver Trust New Gold Central Gold Trust RGLD-Nasdaq IAU-AMEX GLD-NYSE SLW-NYSE CEF-AMEX SLV-AMEX NGD-AMEX GTU-NYSE TSX:RGL, FSX:RG3 HKE:2840 TSX:SLW TSX:CEF-A TSX:NGD

INTEREST RATE & BOND RECOMMENDATION Bond prices surged this month. Interest rates fell further as demand for U.S. bonds gained momentum. Volatility, however, also shook the markets due to some optimism in Europe. Still, U.S. bonds continue to be the worlds safe haven as European concerns persist. Currently, U.S. bonds are strong and bullish and you should hold them, as well as TLO, but this may not be the case for long. Our indicators are suggesting that rates could move higher at any time. And when they do, bond prices will fall. If you havent bought bonds, wait for a better buying opportunity. The major interest rate trend will remain down below 4.40% on the 30 year yield. Above that level, bonds would trigger a mega sell signal.

BONDS & CURRENCY ETFs & FUNDS Barclays LT Treasury TLO USD Bullish Index UUP-NYSE

Note: The shares, funds and ETFs are listed in the box in order of strength per each section. Keep the ones you have on the list.

December 7, 2011

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By Uncle Harry Dec 3, 2011 Dear Reader, Were living in a tiny period between the big/known past & the big/unknown future. Were urgently trying to learn from the past & struggling to project into a fog-hidden future. As Mohamed El Erian, CEO of Pimco, worlds biggest fund, said this wk: Every day I wake up knowing something significant will happen that was unexpected & we must be able to adjust to it quickly. He added: The system is infected at the core so 2nd & 3rd world nations cant insulate themselves even if they have growth. US is politically dysfunctional Germany must decide what it wantsa one or a two euro zone. Too bad we go to press before the Dec 9 meeting of EU leaders; we all hope it doesnt build another bridge to nowhere. Failure Dec 9 would ring fatal fire bells for the world. Major investors hold mostly cash or cash equiv, for safety & to be able to act as conditions change. Most banks can no longer stand-alone. Vet the balance sheets of your banks; what bonds do they hold? Portugal? Hungary? FT columnist Gideon Rachman rightly says: Markets arent the enemy of Euro politicians. They are their friends. In fact, they are all that stands between political leaders & angry citizens. Only mkts stand betwn politicians & deep austerity. Paul Craig Roberts, ex Reagan advisor, pulls no punches, says: EU authorities want more unity, which really means less sovereignty for EC member nations. Germany, the most powerful EU member is in the way of the power the EU authorities desire to wield. Thus, the Germans bond auction failure was an orchestrated event to punish Germany & to warn the German govt not to obstruct unity. Germany has been pushed into a European Union that intends to destroy the political sovereignty of member govts, just as Abe Lincoln destroyed the sovereignty of the individual US states. Who will rule the New Europe? Obviously, the private European banks & Goldman Sachs. The new Euro Central Bank president is Mario Draghi. He was Vice Chairman & Managing Director of Goldman Sachs International. Obviously, Draghi is going to protect the power of bankers. Italy's new prime minister, appointed not elected, was a member of Goldman Sachs Board of Intl Advisers. Mario Monti was appointed to the Euro Commission. Monti is European Chairman of the Trilateral Commission, a US organization that advances US hegemony over the world. Monti is a member of the Bilderberg group & a founding member of the Spinelli group, an organization created in Sept 2010 to facilitate integration within the EU. As in Italy, an unelected banker was installed as prime minister of Greece. Obviously, theyre intended to produce bankers' solution to the sovereign debt crisis. Greece's new appointed

prime minister, Lucas Papademos, was Governor of the Bank of Greece from 2002-2010. He was VP of the European Central Bank. He also is a member of America's Trilateral Commission. The European Union, like everything else, is another scheme to concentrate wealth in a few hands at the expense of European citizens, who are destined, like Americans, to be the serfs of the 21st century Outlook: joblessness to grow steadily (which expands crime), buying power to continue shrinking; poverty will spread. Its global. France & Germany are pushing for treaty changes, to provide tighter rules & punishment for govts who break rules. Two problems with that: 1. It will take a long time to get agreement by 17 nations & mkts have no patience. 2. Referenda are required for treaty changeswhich again will require time, & which one suspects wont be permitted by the insiders--but if permitted, may be defeated, as they usually were a few yrs ago. One suspects either changes will be illegally rammed through or the time required by the rules will be denied by mkts, thus forcing force majorradical emergency bailouts under crisis conditions. Golds daily chart shows a 2-month symmetrical triangle, with apex at 1745 +/-. Volume has dropped during sym/tri, which validates it. Spinner index is neutral, also validating. So we either break out up around $1765 (& close there 2days, & zoom $300 +/- pts. Or we break down to around $1670 (basis 2day close) & flop down $250-300 pts. So, shorterm neutral til breaks out. Chart wizard Louise Yamada is cautious to neutral, shorterm. A possible head & shoulder pattern in HUI gold stk index must be watched. As we write, gold is trying to break out, up. A 2day close needed to confirm. Richard Russell (in rehab re broken hip) & I agree on almost everything. But not on diamonds, except as tiny %. Markups are horrendous. An area for insiders & experts. Europe is starting to get its act together but is too late to avoid a recession. And thats the best case. Marc Faber (rightly) says: There are no free markets anymore. Just manipulated ones. Re chem-trails: Public are a Dumocracy in action. Accepts whatever govts throw at them, including the chemicalized air they breathe. China has been buying gold massively. Record 56.9 tons in Sept, 600% increase yr on yr. Bot 140 tons in July-Sept qrtr, vs 120 tons for all 2010. Also, Russia has bought gold every month but one since 06. The euro currency will last for a while longer because Germany needs it, for trade reasons. A 2-euro Europe may evolve, but the euro wont disappear anytime soon. Tea Party sign: Not long ago Stimulus meant foreplay, & we know what comes next. Christopher Caldwell, Weekly Standard editor, correctly writes (FT, 11/12): Strengthening privacy laws is vital as Information is power, just as money is power. Privacy is a pivotal & unsung right. Without privacy, all dissent is nipped in the bud. Germanys Pirates Party is fighting to establish privacy rights, & may yet draft a new order. Congrats to them & to Christopher Caldwell.

Ive done R&D on the Net via an expert supremo. They (the elite) plan to take it down, or split it into them-&-us. Ill spare U the grim details. But its vital 4 U 2 know the Net records every word U say on it. If U use Facebook U R foolish beyond repair. Faxing is marginally safer/ private. Forget phones & iPads, etc. Snail mail is the only privacy U own. Use it! Practice weaning yourself off the Net now, before the chop. Remember, dear reader, we got along before without the Net. We can do so again. Also, for all the convenience of the Net, it steals a large % of our lives on optional stuff. Get your life & your privacy back via the post box. Whats the hurry? What did U do with the time U saved on the net? U watched more web sites & emails. Dont fool yourself. And dont reveal yourself. Hunker down includes privacy! I dont know who wrote this. Someone called the sage. 4/7/2011. The God delusion. If U are so convinced God is a delusion, how do U explain the fact that this universe exists, & is governed by uniform natural laws throughout, so far as we can observe? How do U account for a lovely little girl's smile, or the raw beauty of the animal kingdom? For the complexity of the human nervous system? Was all this owing to chance? Are U aware of what Roger Penrose said? That the prospect of an orderly universe arising from a primordial explosion, & governed by a uniform set of laws, is as remote as U standing on one end of the universe, & hitting an area at the other end the size of a postage stamp, with a bow & arrow? THAT figure, btw, is several magnitudes beyond a Model T arising from an explosion in a junkyard. In fact, it represents one (unity) over (/) an inconceivable number. A number so vast, that our brain system has no way of comprehending it. To make things worse for your case, CONSTANTS are found in both nature, & in mathematics. Strong evidence of Design, in short. The universe we know was SELECTED. By God. To my way of thinking, the prospect that God does NOT exist is one (unity) over (/) an inconceivable NUMBER. I find no fault with this. How about U? Addison Wiggin writes (Forbes, 11/16) "Prior to the bursting of the credit bubble, the public was shocked to learn that our biggest investment banks were levered 30to-1. When asset values fell, those banks were quickly wiped out. But now the Fed is holding many of the same types of assets & is levered 51-to-1! If the value of their portfolio were to fall by just 2%, the Fed itself would be wiped out." Re the crisis: United we stand, divided we fall. But united we pay. Sylvia Wadwa, CNBC (she is a delight) John Authers (FT 11/13) rightly says The truth is out there & it lies in bond mkts. They have dictated every twist & turn in the eurozone crisis. In China, the yield curve sez lower rates expected & slower growth. Bonds tell all. Be aware interest rates are going lower everywhere!! That means bonds will continue as safe investments. But pick your currency (US$ ok for now) & country or company with care. Were into deflation. Inflation is for later on. Not soon. Heres the very private Heavy Weather Report from Wavy Hill of May 2011. US govt & voters recognize draconian reductions in defence & entitlements are

required to avoid default. But neither group are willing to cut. So the printing presses go on. In late 2011 stuff will happen that couldnt happen here. Crises to be much worse in late 2011. WH has good batting average. A better word is agreements, not conspiracies. Means the same & is the same. Millions of them, globally. Real. US ranks 25th in education. Education Secretary Duncan is so right, that part of problem is 3-months summer vacation while most of world schools teach 12mos a year. US system set in farmer days; that stage now gone. Change it! Xmas shoplifting is at an all-time high in London. This rather sums up the world crisis: immorality, joblessness, hopelessness, civil unrest. At presstime, gold & gold share charts are giving me no clear clue of shorterm direction. Even where bullish, theres a hint of a dip before a breakout upside. So, wait for breakout & 2day close thereof to be safe. World awaits with baited breath the Dec 9 EU summit meeting. Sarkozy & Merkel will meet Dec 5 to fine tune proposals. The fix must be better than the last 5 tries. Hope 4 best, prep 4 un-best. Take possession of any paper gold U think U control. Potpourri Newsletter writer/friend Chas Allmon is retiring, at 91. Sez were in a swamp of unknown duration. He predicts a dead decade for US home real estate. US jobless rise to 15- 20% amid civil unrest. Depression. Gold to fluctuate betwn $1200 & $2500 for 5yrs, thereafter to $4K-$5K, when DJIA will rise to 25,000 due to inflation in 2030-2040. If DJIA priced in gold it will fall to 2000 (real value). A booming US economy in 2050. US now has around 100,000 centenarians, a figure which has doubled since 2000. Its projected to double again by 2020. Trend is upward! So, roll on genes, vitamins, exercise, cut down on sugar, live on positive projection, etc. Great age without usable health is no gain, so invest in yourself & U too will be a viable 100year old humanoid. I take aprox 60 vitamin/supplement tablets a day. They got me this far! Which brings me to this: When HSL was shut down I said Id write a monthly column as long as health & stamina held up & I planned on one year. The Aden sisters agreed. Stamina now says best to stop, need slower pace. But I asked Pam&MaryAnne if we could leave the door open for me to write an occasional 1-page Flash Bulletin if/when events seem to require it. They agreed, & so be it. No harm in rereading past columns & HSLs. Kind reader says I am an eternal realist. If so, rereading past columns should help. 10 years ago the USA had Steve Jobs, Bob Hope & Johnny Cash. Now they have no Jobs, no Hope & no Cash. Saying No is easy, but it means U miss much in life. Saying Yes gives U more of life. --Wm Shatner (Star trek). Faith is a gift, but it seems some people have to be bashed over the head in order to accept that gift. Alf Field, worlds top gold forecaster. Laughter is seriously listed by medics now to treat/help most health problems. Start with smiles! God bless U, dear reader. Bye from your Uncle Harry at 88.3 & coasting.