Cloud computing practice

- Nice

pictures case -

Nice pictures
Forecast

page 1

Copyrigth X4it

Cloud computing practice - Nice

pictures case -

Copyrigth X4it

Market forecast
month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

new customers
attraction
new customers
300
10%
330
11%
366
12%
410
13%
464
14%
528
15%
608
15%
699
14%
797
14%
908
15%
1045
15%
1201
15%
1381
14%
1575
15%
1811
14%
2065
15%
2374
12%
2659
12%
2978
14%
3395
14%
3871
15%
4451
10%
4896
15%
5631
14%
6419
14%
7318
13%
8269
11%
9179
13%
10372
12%
11617
12%
13011
11%
14442
10%
15886
12%
17792
10%
19572
10%
21529

loss

10%
10%
10%
9%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
5%
5%
6%
6%
6%
7%
7%
7%
8%
8%
9%
9%
10%
10%

churn
lost customers

30
33
37
37
42
42
43
42
40
36
52
60
81
93
106
142
163
183
235
268
345
397
484
557

total growth
300
330
366
410
464
528
608
699
797
908
1045
1201
1351
1542
1774
2028
2333
2617
2936
3353
3831
4415
4844
5571
6338
7225
8163
9037
10209
11434
12776
14174
15541
17395
19087
20972

accounts
300
630
996
1407
1870
2399
3006
3705
4502
5410
6455
7656
9008
10550
12324
14352
16684
19301
22237
25591
29421
33836
38681
44251
50590
57815
65978
75015
85223
96657
109433
123606
139148
156543
175630
196602

customers growth
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
2
1

4
3

6
5

8
7

10
9

12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36
11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35

new customers

lost customers

total growth

Accounts
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2
1

4
3

6
5

8
7

10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36
11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35

Customer growth is based on two marketing capabilities : 1- Recruit 10 customers per day. 2- Attraction of existing customers
advices. While sharing photos with their friends, they implicitely invited them to become customers. This viral marketing of any
social network is measured by attraction which defines the amount of new customers.
Because each customer pays for 1 year, there is no customer lost during the first year. The churn ratio (loss) runs between 5%
and 10%, which used to be in most on-line services
page 2

Cloud computing practice - Nice

pictures case -

Copyrigth X4it

Storage forecast
first upload
month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

accounts
300
630
996
1407
1870
2399
3006
3705
4502
5410
6455
7656
9008
10550
12324
14352
16684
19301
22237
25591
29421
33836
38681
44251
50590
57815
65978
75015
85223
96657
109433
123606
139148
156543
175630
196602

79
80
81
81
82
83
84
85
86
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
108
109
110
111
112

per day upload (Mo)

photo
10s video
15,00
17,00
15,15
17,17
15,30
17,34
15,45
17,52
15,61
17,69
15,77
17,87
15,92
18,05
16,08
18,23
16,24
18,41
16,41
18,59
16,57
18,78
16,74
18,97
16,90
19,16
17,07
19,35
17,24
19,54
17,41
19,74
17,59
19,93
17,76
20,13
17,94
20,33
18,12
20,54
18,30
20,74
18,49
20,95
18,67
21,16
18,86
21,37
19,05
21,59
19,24
21,80
19,43
22,02
19,62
22,24
19,82
22,46
20,02
22,69
20,22
22,91
20,42
23,14
20,62
23,37
20,83
23,61
21,04
23,84
21,25
24,08

per month upload (Go)

total
active users
0,48
10%
0,48
2%
0,49
4%
0,49
2%
0,50
2%
0,50
30%
0,51
10%
0,51
2%
0,52
4%
0,52
2%
0,53
2%
0,54
30%
0,54
10%
0,55
2%
0,55
4%
0,56
2%
0,56
2%
0,57
30%
0,57
10%
0,58
2%
0,59
4%
0,59
2%
0,60
2%
0,60
30%
0,61
10%
0,62
2%
0,62
4%
0,63
2%
0,63
2%
0,64
30%
0,65
10%
0,65
2%
0,66
4%
0,67
2%
0,67
2%
0,68
30%

created
38
56
100
128
172
562
405
352
479
524
632
1905
1289
1064
1391
1476
1733
5097
3378
2739
3525
3695
4266
12406
8158
6569
8392
8695
9977
28765
18732
14909
18788
19261
21825
62107

Storage functions ( Go)

deleted
stored
4
34
6
51
10
90
13
116
17
155
56
506
41
365
35
317
48
431
52
472
63
569
190
1714
129
1160
106
957
139
1252
148
1329
173
1560
510
4588
338
3040
274
2465
353
3173
369
3325
427
3839
1241
11165
816
7342
657
5912
839
7553
869
7825
998
8979
2876
25888
1873
16859
1491
13418
1879
16909
1926
17335
2183
19643
6211
55896

cumulative
34
85
175
290
446
952
1316
1633
2064
2536
3104
4819
5979
6936
8188
9517
11077
15665
18705
21170
24343
27668
31507
42673
50015
55927
63480
71305
80284
106172
123031
136449
153358
170693
190335
246232

Active users are really

uploading contents
during a month.
Their number is seasonnally defined. There are
some recurrent events,
like hoilidays, christmas,
which are real occasion to put and share
contents.

The upload amount increases slowly with time, due to better resolution of cameras. The first upload is minimal (around 20 photos).
Some contents are deleted by their owner. It decreases the amount stored at the end of each month.
The cumulative column explains that about 250 Tb have to be stored and backed-up at the end of third year.
page 3

Cloud computing practice - Nice

pictures case -

Copyrigth X4it

Storage growth (Go)

70000

60000

Storage capacity (Go)

300000
50000

250000
200000
150000
100000

40000

50000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

30000

20000

10000

0
1

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

created

18

19

deleted

page 4

20

stored

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

Cloud computing practice - Nice

pictures case -

Copyrigth X4it

Computing forecast
per month upload (Go)
month

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

accounts

300
630
996
1407
1870
2399
3006
3705
4502
5410
6455
7656
9008
10550
12324
14352
16684
19301
22237
25591
29421
33836
38681
44251
50590
57815
65978
75015
85223
96657
109433
123606
139148
156543
175630
196602

created

38
56
100
128
172
562
405
352
479
524
632
1905
1289
1064
1391
1476
1733
5097
3378
2739
3525
3695
4266
12406
8158
6569
8392
8695
9977
28765
18732
14909
18788
19261
21825
62107

deleted

4
6
10
13
17
56
41
35
48
52
63
190
129
106
139
148
173
510
338
274
353
369
427
1241
816
657
839
869
998
2876
1873
1491
1879
1926
2183
6211

stored

34
51
90
116
155
506
365
317
431
472
569
1714
1160
957
1252
1329
1560
4588
3040
2465
3173
3325
3839
11165
7342
5912
7553
7825
8979
25888
16859
13418
16909
17335
19643
55896

s per Go
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65

computing load (ECU seconds)

share
resize
users
total
average s per Go
total
average
10
3
200
10%
27242
22860
40309
33826
10
3
200
10%
10
3
200
10%
71359
59882
10
3
200
10%
91804
77038
123282
103454
10
3
200
10%
401960
337309
10
3
200
10%
10
3
200
10%
289791
243181
10
3
200
10%
251661
211184
342298
287243
10
3
200
10%
374856
314565
10
3
200
10%
10
3
200
10%
451701
379050
10
3
200
10%
1361960
1142903
921685
773442
10
3
200
10%
760596
638262
10
3
200
10%
10
3
200
10%
994651
834672
1055519
885751
10
3
200
10%
1239345
1040010
10
3
200
10%
3644707
3058495
10
3
200
10%
2415320
2026842
10
3
200
10%
1958513
1643507
10
3
200
10%
2520631
2115214
10
3
200
10%
2641636
2216758
10
3
200
10%
3050024
2559461
10
3
200
10%
8870127
7443463
10
3
200
10%
10
3
200
10%
5832887
4894730
10
3
200
10%
4696931
3941481
6000264
5035187
10
3
200
10%
6216739
5216844
10
3
200
10%
10
3
200
10%
7133408
5986077
20566663
17258738
10
3
200
10%
13393640
11239418
10
3
200
10%
10659667
8945175
10
3
200
10%
13433153
11272576
10
3
200
10%
13771416
11556433
10
3
200
10%
15605071
13095164
10
3
200
10%
44406543
37264232
10
3
200
10%

page 5

enhance
s per Go
total
500
1715
2537
500
500
4491
500
5778
7759
500
25298
500
500
18239
15839
500
21543
500
23592
500
500
28429
500
85718
58008
500
47870
500
500
62600
66431
500
78001
500
229387
500
152013
500
123263
500
158641
500
166257
500
191960
500
558260
500
500
367105
500
295611
377639
500
391263
500
500
448956
1294405
500
842956
500
670888
500
845443
500
866732
500
982137
500
2794817
500

Total
seconds
# CPU
1
51816
76672
1
1
135732
1
174620
234495
1
764566
1
1
551211
478685
1
651085
1
713014
1
1
859180
1
2590581
1753134
1
1446727
1
1
1891924
2007701
1
2357356
1
6932589
2
4594175
1
3725284
1
4794486
1
5024650
1
5801445
2
16871850
6
4
11094722
3
8934023
11413090
4
11824846
4
5
13568441
39119807
15
25476014
9
20275730
7
25551171
9
26194582
10
29682373
11
84465593
32

Cloud computing practice - Nice

pictures case -

Copyrigth X4it

Running CPUs
35

Computing forecast is based on

the 3 most consuming functions:

30

Share updates lists at every

upload.

25

Resize creates new content for

every new screen resolution of
handset.

20

Enhance is so easy that it is

massively used.
The load of these functions is directly proportional to the amount
of stored content.

15

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

This picture shows that a single micro instance is able to provide with nominal response time during the first year. It depends on
more precise measures, showing if there is a peak hour or not. Cloudwatch should be usefull, from the second quarter of activity.
The second year profile shows that horizontal scaling, based on Autoscaling should be usefull and less expensive than vertical scaling based on more powerfull instances.
The third year profile shows that Autoscaling becomes mandatory in order to fulfill highly variable requests volume. More powerfull
instances types could be set-up , if less expensive.

page 6