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Office data from Q3 2011 indicated that the momentum seen in deal closures in the preceding quarter was lost and overall market activity remained subdued during the period. The cumulative take-up across Indias seven largest cities dropped 33% quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q), to the lowest level in the past year, as a number of occupiers remained cautious and reevaluated expansion plans. The cumulative vacancy rose marginally to 23.6% due to the slown down in deal closures, in spite of the sharp decline in new supply in the market. During the quarter, the new supply declined by 50% Q-o-Q, as the tight monetory policy measures pushed up the cost of funds over the course of the year. This was compunded by the declining funding options available to developers. The market uncertainty also impacted the rental expectations across all micro markets and average achievable rents remained unchanged. Even though the overall market sentiment remained muted across Indias seven largest cities in Q3 2011, due to the global uncertainties and the likely slow down in domestic growth, Indias long term growth prospects remain robust. Hence, markets are likely to rebound once clarity emerges on the likely direction of the global economy in 2012.
Author
Rohit Kumar Head of India Research +91 (0)124 459 7500 rohit.kumar@dtz.com Rejish T.C. Manager, Research +91 (0)80 4123 1600 rejish.tc@dtz.com Divya Badola Manager, Research +91 (0)124 459 7500 divya.badola@dtz.com Satish Tiwari Manager, Research +91 (0) 22 4223 1600 satish.tiwari@dtz.com Contacts David Green-Morgan Head of Asia Pacific Research +61 (0)2 8243 9913 david.green-morgan@dtz.com Tony McGough Global Head of Forecasting & Strategy Research +44 (0)20 3296 2314 tony.mcgough@dtz.com Hans Vrensen Global Head of Research +44 (0)20 3296 2159 hans.vrensen@dtz.com www.dtz.com
Figure 1
30% 25%
Economic overview
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in India expanded 7.7% in the 2nd quarter of 2011 compared to the same quarter of 2010. This is Indias weakest growth in the last six quarters (Figure 2). The S&P downgrade of the US economy and the prevailing tense debt situation in Europe might not affect the Indian economy because it is primarily driven by domestic consumption. However, the IT and ITES sector might feel the pinch in the coming months. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) headline inflation is within touching distance of 10% (9.78% in August 2011) - the highest among major economies of the world. Petrol prices were up by INR 3.14 adding to the inflationary pressures. The Reserve Bank of Indias (RBIs) anti-inflationary stance has seen interest rates go up a dozen times in the past 18 months. The repo rate (the rate at which the RBI lends) now stands at 8.25% and the reverse rate (rate at which the RBI borrows) now stands at 7.25% (Figure 3). The government launched a new Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in April 2011, with the aim of offering a better gauge of the country's industrial activity. The data was the first of a new series with a new base year, new components and weightings. The old series used the base year of 1993-94, which now stands revised to 2004-05. India's industrial production (IIP) growth fell to a 21 month low of 3.3% in July this year (Figure 4). This low growth figure is primarily driven by capital goods.
Figure 2
Figure 3
Interest Rates
Source: www.rbi.org.in
Figure 4
Source: www.rbi.org.in
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The deployment of Gross Bank Credit to the real estate sector saw a minor improvement in Q3 2011 from 4.4% of the total Non-Food Credit given by Commercial Banks in March 2011 to 4.4% in July 2011 (Figure 5). Since the beginning of the current financial year, the BSE Realty Index has eroded 21% in the past 6 months the sharpest fall being in August 2011 (Figure 6). Cabinet has approved the Draft Land Acquisition and Rehabilitation & Resettlement Bill 2011 in September 2011 in the Monsoon Session of the Parliment. It is likely to be enacted in the Winter Session later this year. Key highlights of the Bill are the higher compensation and clearer definition of public purpose for acquiring land. FDI into the Indian real estate sector has been at an all time low the past 4 years reflecting lower investor confidence in the sector. Prime reasons are politicizing the land acquisition issues and uncontrolled price rise of building materials amongst others.
Figure 5
Source: www.rbi.org.in
Figure 6
Source: www.bseindia.com
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Delhi and Pune witness strong new supply but at the same time both cities see increased vacancies between Q310 and Q311 (Figure 7). Mumbai, on the other hand, has shrunk its new supply and at the same time, has increased its vacancy signifying decreased take up during the same time.
Figure 7
20
Bengaluru Q310 Delhi NCR Q311 Delhi NCR Q310 Mumbai Q311
15
Chennai Q310
Mumbai Q310
Pune Q311
Kolkata Q310 -
10
11
Q310
Q311
Sizeof theBubblerepresentsStock
Delhi, Mumbai and Pune increase their stock from a healthy base (Figure 8). Bengaluru has seen moderate growth in its stock since last year. For all cities, the quarteron-quarter growth (between Q211 and Q311) has been miniscule
Figure 8
Stock Q3 11
2% 5%
Bengaluru 24%
Delhi 17%
3% 16%
Chennai 13% 2% 8% Hyderabad 7% 0% 10% Base: 366 mn sq ft Red Text: Q-O-Q change
Source: DTZ Research
3% 14%
Kolkata 5% 0% 18%
2% 16%
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Miniscule absorption happening in CBDs of all 7 towns primarily because of low supply (Figure 9).
Figure 9
PBD NOIDA
Base: 0.56 mn sq ft
7 CBD
Base: 1.02 mn sq ft
33 PBD
23 Suburban 13 New CBD 29 Off CBD 1 CBD
99
PBD
Pune 6%
1 CBD
31 52 13 4
PBD SBD
Base: 1.03 mn sq ft
Base: 0.42 mn sq ft
26 18
Base: 2.4 mn sq ft
Base: 0.6 mn sq ft
Source: DTZ Research
www.dtz.com
Delhi NCR
Amidst uncertain global economic conditions and unfavourable domestic conditions, Delhi NCR witnessed substantially lower take-up in Q3 2011. The overall take-up stood at 1.02 million sq ft which was 48% less than the previous quarter and 25% less than the same quarter last year (Figure 10). Nearly 60% of the total take-up was reported in Gurgaon. The traditional IT/ITES continued to dominate the market in Q3 2011, contributing to more than 50% of the demand. The rest of the demand came from sectors such as Retail, Manufacturing and Consumer Goods. Overall vacancy stood at 31.8% of the total stock in Q3 2011 which was marginally higher than Q2 2011 (Figure 10). The take-up and new supply were able to offset each other resulting in a minor rise of 1% in vacancy q-o-q. Vacancy levels declined across all key micro markets except Noida where it increased by 4% q-o-q. Noida witnessed the lowest take-up in Q3 2011 compared to any of the quarters in 2010 and, Q1 and Q2 in 2011. Although the CBD witnessed the highest take-up compared to any of the quarters in 2010 and Q1 and Q2 2011, most of the activity was a result of internal movement and not fresh take-up. Due to the liquidity crunch as a result of increasing interest rates and cost of construction, new supply in Q3 2011 reduced by 19% q-o-q. Approximately 1.6 million sq ft of new supply came to the market in Q3 2011, taking the stock to 62.6 million sq ft (Figure 11). The delivery timeline of many new projects got pushed back by a few quarters. Overall rents remained stable across all micro markets in the region (Figure 12). With moderate demand and supply, the rents in the SBD and PBD along with the CBD are expected to stay stable in the next couple of quarters. The Land Acquisition and Rehabilitation and Resettlement Bill 2011 was introduced in the Lok Sabha on September 7, 2011 and is expected to be passed in the winter session of the Parliament. The compensation component of the Bill is going to affect the real estate prices as the developers will have to shell out more money to acquire land from the farmers now. The momentum in Delhi NCR both in commercial and residential real estate is expected to slow down for a couple of quarters as a result of the current economic conditions both globally and in the country.
Figure 10
Figure 11
Figure 12
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Delhi NCR
Table 1 Occupier market Q3 2010 TOTAL Stock (sq ft) Take-up (sq ft) Availability (%) New Supply (sq ft) CBD Take-up (sq ft) Availability (sq ft) Availability ratio (%) New supply (sq ft) Prime rents (INR psft pm) SBD Take-up (sq ft) Availability (sq ft) Availability ratio (%) New supply (sq ft) Prime rents (INR psft pm) PBD (Gurgaon) Take-up (sq ft) Availability (sq ft) Availability ratio (%) New supply (sq ft) Prime rents (INR psft pm) PBD (Noida) Take-up (sq ft) Availability (sq ft) Availability ratio (%) New supply (sq ft) Prime rents (INR psft pm)
Source: DTZ Research
Q4 2010 56,774,542 1,850,233 32.61 2,790,066 19,300 57,301 4 0 300 ($6.6) 35,000 1,496,804 34 0 175 ($3.9) 1,487,733 10,774,744 30 2,245,066 86 ($1.9) 308,200 6,183,825 43 545,000 38 ($0.8)
Q1 2011 58,914,131 1,220,352 33.82 2,139,589 3,515 53,786 4 0 315($7.0) 55,600 1,466,804 33 0 185($4.1) 768,737 11,523,452 31 1,050,000 90($2.0) 392,500 6,881,414 45 1,089,589 40($0.9)
Q2 2011 60,923,131 1,963,519 31.59 2,009,000 21,350 32,436 2 0 350 (7.7) 229,500 1,537,304 32 300000 185($4.0) 1,315,488 10,249,732 27 770,000 90($2.0) 397,181 7,423,233 45 939,000 40($0.9)
Q3 2011 62,557,434 1,015,778 31.89 1,634,303 67,434 0 0 0 350 (7.7) 107,200 1,430,104 30 0 185($4.0) 744,944 10,454,788 27 950,000 90($2.0) 96,200 8,011,336 47 684,303 40($0.9)
Q/Q change (%) 2 -48 -19 216 0 -53 -7 0 -43 -93 23 0 -76 8 -27 0
Y/Y change (%) 16 -25 121 1126 21 23 -6 6 130 -92 494 10 -90 36 174 11
Directional outlook
53,984,476 1,356,673 31.61 740,000 5,500 73,400 5 0 290 ($6.4) 87,000 1,526,000 34 330000 175 ($3.9) 323,655 9,567,218 28 160,000 82 ($1.8) 940,518 5,900,054 43 250,000 36 ($0.8)
Table 2 Leasing transactions Address Unitech SEZ Sector 48, Building 2 Unitech SEZ Sector 48, Building 3 DLF Cyber City Building 5A
Source: DTZ Research
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Mumbai
In Q3 2011, office space take-up in Mumbai showed signs of moderation. Demand from the IT/ITES sector, which is one of the principal drivers for office space in the city, was restrained. This can be attributed to delayed decision making by several IT companies owing to debt crisis in America and several European economies which account for over 85% of revenues to the Indian IT sector. Additionally, inflation induced uncertainty in Indian markets has forced companies to adopt a cautious approach towards expansion. As a result, total demand for office space in the city was recorded at 1.03 million sq ft (Figure 13), which was substantially lower than demand recorded in Q2 2011. In the current quarter, Mumbai witnessed a total new supply of 2.37 million sq ft, taking the overall office space stock in the city to over 81 million sq ft. This new supply, largely comprising Grade A developments was centered across off CBD (77%) and suburban (23%) locations. Nearly half of supply witnessed in Q3 2011 consists of large sized under construction projects. With limited pre commitments in new supply, overall vacancy levels in the city inched over 24% (Figure 13) as compared to 23% recorded in the previous quarter. However, Grade A - Non IT vacancy levels were considerably lower as is the supply. Highest availabilities were recorded in off CBD (43%) and the suburban locations (33%) where significant part of new supply was unabsorbed. CBD and New CBD locations witnessed lowest vacancies in the city, which were recorded at 6-7%. Office rents remained largely stable across all micromarkets in the city in Q3 2011. Rents are likely to remain under pressure over the next 3-6 months due to a large supply pipeline and a simultaneous anticipated slowdown in demand (Figure 15). An anticipated slowdown of the US economy is likely to increase outsourcing to India. A robust 7-8% growth of the Indian economy will ensure a reasonable level of absorption in coming months. This, however will only provide a cushion to pricing in the face of large upcoming supply.
Figure 13
Take-up
Source: DTZ Research
Availability Ratio
Figure 14
Figure 15
Mumbai
Table 3 Occupier market Q3 2010 Total Stock (sq ft) Take-up (sq ft) Availability (%) New Supply (sq ft) CBD Take-up (sq ft) Availability (sq ft) Availability ratio (%) New supply (sq ft) Prime rents (INR psft pm) Off CBD Take-up (sq ft) Availability (sq ft) Availability ratio (%) New supply (sq ft) Prime rents (INR psft pm) New CBD Take-up Availability (sq ft) Availability ratio (%) New supply (sq ft) Prime rents (INR psft pm) Suburban Take-up (sq ft) Availability (sq ft) Availability ratio (%) New supply (sq ft) Prime rents (INR psft pm) PBD Take-up (sq ft) Availability (sq ft) Availability ratio (%) New supply (sq ft) Prime rents (INR psft pm)
Source: DTZ Research
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q/Q change (%) 3 -50 -31 -65 -9 0 0 100 47 31 0 -68 -22 -100 0 -74 6 23 0 -35 -4 -100 0
Y/Y change (%) 14 -46 -8 -33 -34 0 0 601 340 -8 -51 -24 -100 5 -35 -12 -73 0 -72 18 -100 0
Directional outlook
71,513,802 1,908,379 22 2,581,000 17,982 178,531 9 0 325 ($7.1) 42,815 1,094,385 16 0 190 ($4.2) 273,499 616,500 8 93,000 300 ($6.6) 370,138 6,767,475 35 1,988,000 125 ($2.7) 1,203,945 6,777,322 19 500,000 65 ($1.4)
72,758,906 2,100,000 20 1,245,104 15,000 172,531 9 0 325 ($7.1) 375,000 1,610,969 22 731,354 180 ($3.9) 310,000 450,000 6 46,250 315 ($6.9) 800,000 6,250,000 32 285,000 125 ($2.7) 600,000 6,350,700 18 182,500 65 ($1.4)
75,810,906 1,260,000 22 3,052,000 9,000 163,531 9 0 325 ($7.1) 175,000 2,032,069 25 600,000 180 ($3.9) 150,000 350,000 5 0 315 ($6.9) 225,000 6,025,000 30 0 125 ($2.7) 701,000 7,950,700 21 2,452,000 65 ($1.4)
79,256,559 2,068,441 23 3,445,653 34,000 129,531 7 0 325 ($7.1) 150,000 3,282,069 35 1,400,000 175 ($3.8) 415,586 602,067 7 667,653 315 ($6.9) 943,400 5,571,600 27 440,000 125 ($2.7) 525,455 8,363,245 21 938,000 65 ($1.4)
81,628,059 1,027,097 24 2,371,500 11,996 117,535 6 0 325 ($7.1) 300,000 4,812,069 43 1,830,000 175 ($3.8) 133,718 468,349 6 0 315 ($6.9) 241,001 5,922,099 28 541,500 125 ($2.7) 340,382 8,022,863 20% 0 65 ($1.4)
Table 4 Leasing transactions Address Maker Maxity Nirlon Knowledge Park www.dtz.com
Source: DTZ Research
Bengaluru
Absorption of office space remained high at 2.4 million sq ft in Q3 2011, on the back of a number of large pre-commitments in the PBD ORR submarket. However, this was a q-o-q decline of 26% from the record absorption achieved in the preceding quarter (Figure 16). Towards the end of Q3 2011, there appeared to be a change in the market conditions with a few corporations deciding to be cautious and go slow on their expansion plans, in the wake of turbulence in the global financial marketplace. Vacancy levels in the city moved marginally up to 18.3%, primarily because the total absorption did not completely offset the new supply during the period as pre-commitments accounted for half the deal closure in Q3 2011. Overall vacancy rates in city appeared to have bottomed out at 18.0% in Q2 2011 (Figure 16). Considering the significantly large supply scheduled for the next two years, vacancy rates are unlikely to improve further from the current levels. Among the various micro markets,vacancy remained low in CBD and SBD at 8% each, while it was at 23% in PBD. Among the various submarkets within PBD, it ranged between a low of 6% in PBD ORR to a high of 35% in PBD Whitefield submarket. A total of 1.6 million sq ft of new supply got ready for fit-outs during Q3 2011, a drop of 8% q-o-q, as no new supply came in the SEZ category. Significantly large portion of the new supply was in the PBD ORR submarket which has witnessed consistently large demand for space in the past. The progressively increasing cost of loans and the limited financing options available to developers are likely to have an impact on the future supply pipeline (Figure 17). The rentals remained largely unchanged during the quarter, due to the uncertain global market conditions apart from the fact that domestic economic scenario remained far from ideal. Rental expectations also appeared to remain realistic, in the wake of unconfirmed reports of recruitment freeze in a few large MNCs (Figure 18). In spite of all the global uncertainties and the emerging signs of weakening GDP growth in the country, the demand for office space in the city is likely to exceed the new supply during the rest of 2011. However, the large new supply expected during 2012-13, even in the face of possible phasing out of some projects, is likely to restrain any uncontrolled spiralling of rentals in the city.
Figure 16
Figure 17
Figure 18
100 80 60 40 20 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(E) 2012(E) 2013(E) 2014(E)
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10
Bengaluru
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Directional outlook
Total Stock (sq ft) Take-up (sq ft) Availability (%) New Supply (sq ft) CBD Take-up (sq ft) Availability (sq ft) Availability ratio (%) New supply (sq ft) Prime rents (INR psft pm) SBD Take-up (sq ft) Availability (sq ft) Availability ratio (%) New supply (sq ft) Prime rents (INR psft pm) PBD Take-up (sq ft) Availability (sq ft) Availability ratio (%) New supply (sq ft)
Source: DTZ Research
83,019,68 2,246,292 23 140,000 236,964 719,506 10 140,000 72 ($1.6) 165,970 2,157,402 10 0 50 ($1.1) 1,843,358 15,882,833 29 0
83,849,295 2,356,391 21 829,606 204,651 601,256 8 152,000 75 ($1.6) 262,645 2,183,751 10 0 55 ($1.2) 1,889,095 14,569,131 26 677,606 42 ($0.9)
84,012,289 1,703,497 20 162,994 106,256 556,494 8 0 75 ($1.6) 159,600 1,827,450 9 0 55 ($1.2) 1,778,340 14,086,171 25 162,994 42 ($0.9)
85,738,480 3,253,148 18 1,726,191 94,986 690,807 9 0 80 ($1.8) 237,805 1,452,060 7 150,930 55 ($1.2) 2,920,357 13,310,819 23 1,575,261 45 ($1.0)
87,322,965 2,408,506 18 1,584,485 71,639 625,101 8 0 80 ($1.8) 89,936 1,663,642 8 250,000 55 ($1.2) 2,246,931 13,716,019 23 1,334,485 45 ($1.0)
11 -46 -23
10 22 -14
13
Exchange rate: USD 1 = INR 45.7; * only PBD ORR sub-market commands the reported PBD prime rent
Table 6 Leasing transactions Address Adarsh Eco Place Brigade Summit Manyata Business Park
Source: DTZ Research
Micro-market Size (sq ft) PBD 28,327 PBD PBD 100,000 701,200
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11
Chennai
The office market recovery in Chennai, which has been underway since the second half of 2010 slowed down considerably in Q3 2011. The quarterly absorption during the quarter moderated to 0.6 million sq ft, a q-o-q decline of 46% (Figure 19). The tightening monetary policy measures to tame the stubbornly high inflation, coupled with the grave prognosis for the world economy, was likely to have delayed expansion plans of a few large corporations. Most of the demand during the quarter was restricted to the some of the more sought after technology parks in the beginning of OMR, apart from the central areas of the city. Vacancy rate in the city increased marginally and stood at 27% at the end of Q3 2011 vis--vis 26% at the end of Q2 2011 (Figure 19). Overall vacancy rate the city appeared to have bottomed out by the previous quarter and is likely to move up from the current levels, albeit marginally, unless sustained demand for space firms up in the near future. New supply during Q3 2011 stood at 0.8 million sq ft, a q-o-q drop of 63%. All of this new supply was reported in the PBD OMR submarket. The supply pipeline in the city continued to be large, however, the slackening demand in the wake of cautious market sentiments is likely to result in further project delays over the next two years (Figure 20). The rentals across the city remained largely unchanged in Q3 2011 as the market activity was considerably subdued during the period. Eventhough the city boasts of significant presence of firms in banking, engineering, automotive, consumer goods, media and entertainment sectors, the demand for large Grade A space was primarily driven by IT and ITES (particularly BFSI outsourcing) firms. In the next few quarters, how demand from IT/ITES sector gets firmed up would determine the course of the rental movement across all micromarkets. In a decision which may make the development of SEZs slightly more attractive, the Union Government took the decision to allow SEZ developers to sell stake in their projects. As per the SEZ rules, transfer of land is not permitted within SEZs and the government has clarified that the dilution of equity stake would not be treated as transfer of land. This decision is likely to help some of the SEZ developers as it gives them an opportunity to pare down their high debt levels on their balance sheets.
Figure 19
Take-up
Figure 20
Figure 21
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12
Chennai
Table 7 Occupier market Q3 2010 Total (sq ft) Stock (sq ft) Take-up (sq ft) Availability ratio (%) New supply (sq ft) CBD Take-up (sq ft) Availability (sq ft) Availability ratio (%) New supply (sq ft) Prime rents (INR psft pm) SBD Take-up (sq ft) Availability (sq ft) Availability ratio (%) New supply (sq ft) Prime rents (INR psft pm) PBD Take-up (sq ft) Availability (sq ft) Availability ratio (%) New supply (sq ft) Prime rents (INR psft pm)
Source: DTZ Research
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q/Q change (%) 2 -46 -63 25 0 -100 0 -27 32 -100 0 -59 6 -33 0
Directional outlook
43,311,029 800,000 34 1,022,000 27,000 949,437 26 180,000 65 ($1.4) 333,000 1,466,530 14 0 43 ($0.9) 440,000 12,833,429 43 842,000 24 ($0.5)
43,311,029 2,200,000 29 0 175,000 850,500 23 0 70 ($1.5) 950,000 423,000 4 0 45 ($1.0) 1,075,000 11,716,711 39 0 24 ($0.5)
44,811,029 1,300,000 26 500,000 36,000 818,000 23 0 70 ($1.5) 241,020 339,780 3 0 48 ($1.1) 1,022,980 10,388,851 34 500,000 26 ($0.6)
46,963,574 1,117,511 26 2,152,545 84,000 988,545 25 254,545 75 ($1.6) 212,240 525,780 5 698,000 48 ($1.1) 821,271 10,567,580 33 1,200,000 26 ($0.6)
47,763,574 600,000 27 800,000 105,000 985,545 25 0 75 ($1.6) 154,640 691,780 6 0 48 ($1.1) 340,360 11,226,980 35 800,000 26 ($0.6)
12 -23 -13 -5 8
Table 8 Leasing transactions Address Ascendas ITPC Bannari Amman Square RMZ Millenia
Source: DTZ Research
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13
Pune
In Q3 2011, Pune witnessed a total take-up of 0.42 million sq ft, a drop of 57% as compared to the previous quarter (Figure 22). This slowdown in demand can be attributed to a wait and watch policy adopted by most IT companies owing to debt crisis in several European countries and cautious outlook in American markets. With these geographies accounting for majority of revenues to Indian IT sector, IT/ITES companies have been guarded in executing their expansion plans. The SBD and PBD micro markets emerged as most active precincts in the city accounting for 52% and 31% of total take-up respectively. With take-up from BFSI and manufacturing sector largely being restrained, office space demand in the city continues to be driven by the IT/ITES sector. With significant part of new supply already precommited, vacancy levels in the city largely remained stable. As a result, overall vacancy levels in Q3 2011 was recorded at 28% (Figure 22). PBD witnessed the vacancy levels of 38%. However, availabilities in CBD and off CBD vacacny levels were recorded in the range of 9%-10%. With March 2014 set as deadline under the proposed Direct Tax Code (DTC) to occupy space in order to avail Special Economy Zone (SEZ) tax benefits, the city witnessed some transactions for SEZ space. SEZ space accounted for nearly 48% out of total take-up witnessed in this quarter. With high vacancy levels and moderation in demand, many developers are now going slow on under construction projects. As a result, the city witnessed a modest supply of 0.63 million sq ft in Q3 2011 (Figure 23), which was lowest when compared to last four quarters. Additionally, no significant new project were launched in the current quarter. After witnessing an appreciation in Q1 2011, rentals across micro markets have remained stable (Figure 24) in Q3 2011. This can be attributed to restrained demand and large upcoming supply. Cautious global market sentiments coupled with inflation induced uncertainity in Indian economy is likely to restrain office space take up over the next 3 to 6 months. Additionally, while demand is expected to remain at moderate levels, large upcoming supply over the next 6 to 9 months will keep rentals under pressure.
Figure 22
200 -
Take-up
Source: DTZ Research
Availability ratio
Figure 23
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Figure 24
100 80 60 40 20 0
2007
Source: DTZ Research
2008
2009
2010
www.dtz.com
14
Pune
Table 9 Occupier market Q3 2010 Total Stock (sq ft) Take-up (sq ft) Availability ratio (%) New supply (sq ft) CBD Take-up (sq ft) Availability (sq ft) Availability ratio (%) New supply (sq ft) Prime rents (INR psft pm) Off CBD Take-up (sq ft) Availability (sq ft) Availability ratio (%) New supply (sq ft) Prime rents (INR psft pm) SBD Take-up (sq ft) Availability (sq ft) Availability ratio (%) New supply (sq ft) Prime rents (INR psft pm) PBD Take-up (sq ft) Availability (sq ft) Availability ratio (%) New supply (sq ft) Prime rents (INR psft pm)
Source: DTZ Research
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Directional outlook
36,808,410 650,000 24 400,000 30,000 382,100 10 0 70 ($1.5) 50,000 265,900 8 0 55 ($1.2) 80,000 1,047,000 12 0 35 ($0.8) 490,000 6,964,160 33 400,000 30 ($0.7)
37,843,410 850,676 24 1,035,000 40,000 441,748 12 99,648 72 ($1.6) 20,000 362,900 11 0 55 ($1.2) 50,600 1,057,000 12 0 35 ($0.8) 740,076 7,194,596 33 783,352 30 ($0.7)
39,343,410 525,600 26 1,500,000 15,000 426,748 11 0 75($1.6 ) 95,036 472,864 13 200000 57($ 1.2) 80,564 982,000 11 0 35($0.8 ) 335,000 8,164,053 35 1,300,000 30($0.7 )
41,915,014 967,189 28 2,571,604 66,500 360,248 10 0 75($1.6) 150,000 322,864 9 0 57($1.2) 125,689 1,156,311 12 300,000 35 ($0.8) 625,000 9,810,657 39 2,271,604 30 ($0.7)
42,545,014 418,500 28 630,000 15,300 344,948 9% 0 75($1.6) 54,000 348,864 10% 80,000 57($1.2) 217,500 1,488,811 15% 550,000 35 ($0.8) 131,700 9,678,957 38% 0 30 ($0.7)
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15
Kolkata
Kolkata sustained robust absorption during Q3 2011 and reported overall absorption of 1.4 million sq ft. The total space take-up in Q3 2011 increased by more than 300% q-o-q (Figure 25). The PBD witnessed increase of 346% in take-up on q-o-q followed by CBD that witnessed 62% increase q-o-q. Along with Rajarhat this quarter witnessed strong activity in Salt Lake. The PBD accounted for 80% of the total take-up in Q3 2011. With expensive cities getting more expensive, Kolkata is expected to sustain the momentum. The PBD continued to be the preferred destination due to the availability of large floor plates with superior facilities at highly competitive rentals. Guided by no new supply and strong take-up in Q3 2011, the overall vacancy declined by 27% q-o-q and 3% y-o-y (Figure 25). All micro markets witnessed decrease in vacancy with PBD leading the pack. The vacancy level in PBD dropped by 28%, followed by CBD and SBD at 13% and 2% respectively. With no project completions reported during Q3 2011, stock remained unchanged q-o-q at 17.5 million sq ft (Figure 26). The trend is likely to continue into next few quarters. Few developments are expected to be completed in the coming quarters. Developers are holding off on any new project launches due to the current uncertainties in the global and domestic markets. Overall rentals remained stable across Kolkata due to modest vacancy in SBD and PBD. The CBD rentals remained static at INR 87 psft pm followed by SBD at INR 65 psft pm and PBD at INR 54 psft pm. The PBD markets of Rajarhat and Salt Lake remain the key markets for occupiers due to scalability options at competitive and stable rentals (Figure 27). Kolkata is emerging as the preferred destination as businesses try to cut down on their costs. The City is making the best use of its capabilities in terms of developing high standard infrastructure along with skilled man power. The demand in both commercial and retail markets is expected to remain robust in the next few quarters. However, considering the economic uncertainties the rentals are expected to stay stable in short to midterm to maintain the location attractiveness of the city. The IT/ITES sector will continue to be the primary demand driver.
Figure 25
Figure 26
Figure 27
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16
Kolkata
Table 11 Occupier market Q3 2010 Total Stock (sq ft) Take-up (sq ft) Availability (%) New Supply (sq ft) CBD Take-up (sq ft) Availability (sq ft) Availability ratio (%) New supply (sq ft) Prime rents (INR psft pm) SBD Take-up (sq ft) Availability (sq ft) Availability ratio (%) New supply (sq ft) Prime rents (INR psft pm) PBD Take-up (sq ft) Availability (sq ft) Availability ratio (%) New supply (sq ft) Prime rents (INR psft pm)
Source: DTZ Research
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Directional outlook
337
18 904
0 60,950 3 0 85 ($1.9)
0 60,950 3 0 87 ($1.9)
62 -13
0 -24
0 0
0 2
0 19,885 3 0 60 ($1.3)
-50 -2
460
346 -28
897 12
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17
Hyderabad
Hyderabad reported subdued leasing activity in Q3 2011, after several quarters of robust demand. The total absorption during Q3 2011 declined 42% q-o-q to 0.6 million sq ft (Figure 28). The IT/ITES sector, which contributed to large demand for space during the first half of the year, largely adopted a cautious approach about expansion in the wake of the worsening cues in the global financial markets. Apart from this, the political turmoil, which also disrupted the registration of deals in the city for weeks, likely contributed to the reduced market activity during the period. Vacancy rates in the city, which progressively declined over the past few quarters, remained largely unchanged at 10% in Q3 2011 (Figure 28). However, the absorption over the next few years may not be sufficient to completely offset the corresponding large new supply during the period and hance the vacancy rates in the city is likely to increase from the present low levels. A number of projects earlier scheduled to become ready for fitouts in Q3 2011 were delayed and hence no new supply came to the market during the period. The total Grade A stock in Hyderabad remained unchanged at 26.4 million sq ft at the end of Q3 2011. Even though the large supply pipeline in the city remains a concern, the frequest upward revision in interest rates has impacted the cost of funds for the developers, and this in turn is likely to impact the project delivery timelines in at least a few cases (Figure 29). As the market activity moderated from the record high levels in the immediately preceding quarter, the average achievable rental remained unchanged. The large supply pipeline and the paralysis of several arms of the administration in the city in support of the ongoing political strike, is likely to affect market sentiments and hence any further rental increase is unlikley during the last quarter of 2011 (Figure 30). The city continued to remain one of the most attractive destinations for the IT industry, as it boasts of high calibre work force due to presence of some of the best educational institutions including the IIT, IIIT and ISB. Even though a number of firms have decided to be cautious and to reassess their expansion plans, the demand for office space in the city is likely to improve from the current levels, once more clarity emerges on the direction of the global economy, in coming months.
Figure 28
Figure 29
Figure 30
60
40
20
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Hyderabad
Table 13
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
24,579,146 1,885,683 9 0
26,399,146 561,976 10 0
Table 14
Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q/Q change (%)
Y/Y change (%) Directional outlook
Occupier markets
0 0 0
0 0 5
Table 15 Leasing transactions Address Divyasree Orion Raheja Mindspace Ascendas V park Cyber Pearl Cyber Pearl
Source: DTZ Research
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Thane
325 315 45
BKC
80
30 40 45 50
Navi Mumbai
275
Worli
PBD ORR 60 Koramangala 55Intermediate Ring Road
Goregaon Malad
PBD Hebbal
55 C V Raman Nagar
Rental Value
20
75 Nungambakkam
65 Santhome
Salt Lake
54
90 Park Street 55 55
31
45 55 Guindy
40 34 Yerwada
EM Bypass
Hinjewadi
65 Jubilee Hills
Gachibowli
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20
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21
Definitions
Stock Total accommodation in the private sector, both occupied and vacant. Take-up Floor space acquired for occupation including the following: 1. Offices let to an eventual occupier. 2. Developments pre-let or sold. Prime rent Represents the attainable prime rent that could be expected for a building/unit of the highest quality and specification in the best location. Vacancy Total floor space in existing properties, which are physically vacant, ready for occupation and being actively marketed. New supply Total floor space, which has reached practical completion (ready for fit-outs) during the survey period. The forecasted new supply for the upcoming years is estimated based on the developer announcements and timelines stipulated by them. Pre-let/Pre-commit A development leased or sold prior to completion. Development pipeline Total space which has received planning permission and will either be constructed or extensively refurbished. Q-o-Q Quarter on quarter Y-o-Y Year on year EOI Expression of Interest LOI Letter of Interest BFSI Banking, financial services and insurance FDI Foreign direct investment IT/ITES: Information technology / Information technology enabled services
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Micro-market classification CBD Central business district SBD Secondary business district PBD Peripheral business district Delhi NCR CBD: SBD: PBD: Mumbai CBD: Off CBD: New CBD: Suburban: PBD: Bengaluru CBD: SBD: PBD: Chennai CBD: SBD: PBD: Pune CBD: SBD: PBD: Kolkata CBD: SBD: PBD: Hyderabad CBD: SBD: PBD: Connaught Place Nehru Place, Saket, Jasola and Vasant Kunj Gurgaon, Noida, Greater Noida and Faridabad Nariman Point and Cuffe Parade Worli and Parel Bandra Kurla Complex, Kalina and Santacruz (East) Andheri Kurla road and Andheri (W) Goregaon-Malad, LBS Marg, Powai, Navi Mumbai and Thane M.G. Road, Richmond Road and Vittal Mallya Road C.V. Raman Nagar, Intermediate Ring Road and Airport Road Outer Ring Road, Whitefield, Electronic City and Bannerghatta Road Nungambakkam, Anna Salai and RK Salai Guindy, Manapakkam and Vadapalani OMR, GST Road and Ambattur Koregaon Park, Bund Garden, DP Road and MG Road Viman Nagar, Kalyani Nagar, Kharadi and Airport Road Baner, Aundh, Hinjewadi, Hadapsar and Magarpatta Camac Street, AJC Bose Road, Theatre Road and JN Road Sarat Bose Road, EM Bypass and Topsia Road Rajarhat, Salt Lake SP Road, Rajbhawan Road, Panjagutta and Somajiguda Banjara Hills, Jubilee Hills HITEC City, Madhapur, Gachibowli and Kondapur
22
Contacts
Management Team India Anshul Jain CEO India Occupational and Developments Markets Hugh Hamilton Project Management David Parsley Investment Advisory Rajeev Bairathi Anuj Nangpal Research Rohit Kumar Press Contact Ruchika Rana
anshul.jain@dtz.com
hugh.hamilton@dtz.com
david.parsley@dtz.com
rajeev.bairathi@dtz.com anuj.nangpal@dtz.com
rohit.kumar@dtz.com
ruchika.rana@dtz.com
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23
Disclaimer
This report should not be relied upon as a basis for entering into transactions without seeking specific, qualified, professional advice. Whilst facts have been rigorously checked, DTZ can take no responsibility for any damage or loss suffered as a result of any inadvertent inaccuracy within this report. Information contained herein should not, in whole or part, be published, reproduced or referred to without prior approval. Any such reproduction should be credited to DTZ. DTZ October 2011
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