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Post DisasterKey Factors in Asian LNG Market

World LNG Series ASIA Pacific SUMMIT 21 September 2011, Singapore

Yasushi Asano
General Manager of LNG Business

Introduction

1
2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.

Outline
1. Demand and Supply Prospect for Asian LNG 2. Change for Buyers (Before and After Disaster) 3. Future Trends in Suppliers' Side 4. What's Next?

2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.

1.Demand and Supply Prospect for Asian LNG


(mpta)

300
250 200 150 100 50 0

LNG Supply for Asian Market Existing, FID & FS)

Substitute LNG for nuclear reactors

Asian LNG Demandother than Japanese)

Japanese LNG Demand


Min Max 2015 Min Max 2016~2020 Min Max 2021~2030

2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.

1.Demand and Supply Prospect for Asian LNG Increasing Spot Trade especially in Asia and Europe Spot LNG for Asia - 4mpta (2005) to 18mpta (2010) Spot LNG for Europe - 6mpta (2005) to 14mpta (2010) Some Spot Cargoes in Europe (2010) possibly flow into Asian Market in 2011
Spot Volume in Atlantic can be source for additional Asian Demand including Nuclear Freeze

2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.

2.Change for Buyers (Before and After Disaster)


Atlantic LNG Flow to Asia (2010) : 8 to 9 mpta Increased Atlantic LNG to Japan (after Disaster) ; 4mpta

Atlantic LNG Flow to Asia


2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.

2. Change for Buyers (Before Disaster)

Constant Trends Gap between JKM and NBP


- Atlantic LNG flows to the Asian Spot Market

($/mmbtu)

12

Spread (JKM-NBP)

JKM
10 NBP HH 8

2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.

2. Change for Buyers (After Disaster)

Different Trends between JKM and NBP - 'Unreasonable' Price Gap caused by unbalanced Supply and Demand by the 'month by month' Spot Purchase of some Asian Buyers due to the Nuclear Freeze
($/mmbtu)

18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
2011/03/11

Spread (JKM-NBP) JKM NBP HH

2011/04/11

2011/05/11

2011/06/11

2011/07/11

2011/08/11

2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.

2. Change for Buyers (After Disaster) Continuous Spot Purchase by Asian Buyers
- Increased Atlantic LNG flow to Asian Market will continue - Buyers' Concern on continued 'Unreasonable' Price Gap including 'whichever higher' concept

Production Start of New Plant to supply the Asian Market


- Expect to end the 'Unreasonable' Price Gap - 'Reasonable' Price Gap ?

2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.

3. Future Trends in Supplier Side Chubu's Activity on LNG Business - Efforts for the integrated LNG Market Commit to the Unconventional Gas (CBM, Shale Gas) - Enhance LNG Trade by Alternate Flame Window to the North American Gas Market (US Export, Canadian Shale Gas) - HH Linked LNG Flow to the Asian Market

2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.

3. Future Trends in Supplier Side After Disaster

Increased Asian LNG Demand will accelerate the Change (Integration of Markets)
Revival of Asian LNG Demand/Japanese LNG Demand - Expand the Presence of the Traditional Asian Buyers in the LNG Market

2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.

4. What's Next?
In summary Integration among the LNG Markets with 'Reasonable' Price Gap Chubu's Commitment ; Towards Significant Player in the Integrated Markets, enhancing such Integration

2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.

Thank you!

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