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Contents
1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 Introduction The EIBE Assignment Task 1: Examples and Explanatory Notes Task 1: Blank Pro-forma Sheets Task 2: Notes from The Learning Manager A One-Day Scenario Development Timetable Conducting Research in Scenario Projects
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2 5 7 13 31 34 39
1.0 Introduction
"My interest is in the future because I am going to spend the rest of my life there."
Charles F. Kettering
EIBE Workbook
After more than 50 years, theories of business strategy are reasonably well developed and widely disseminated through MBA programmes at Business Schools, along with a plethora of books, academic and practitioner journals, magazines and websites devoted to the subject. Yet the business world is littered with examples of failed strategies. How does this situation arise? There are many factors which have contributed to it, but central to the issue is the fact that the templates for developing strategy which evolved from the pioneering work of Ansoff, Chandler and Sloan in the 1960s and were subsequently popularized at the Harvard Business School, presuppose that the contextual business environment is relatively stable and that humans are rational economic decision makers. The contextual environment is of course, far from stable as we have already seen, we are witnessing the biggest changes on the planet in 200 years suggests Tom Peters. It comes as no surprise that as the business environment mutates and business conditions become increasingly confusing and difficult, the response from companies is to batten down the hatches, curtail investments, slash operating costs, rein in discretionary expenditures and finally, to cut prices, as is much in evidence at this moment in business. These after all are the recipes that have worked in the past. However as Abraham Lincoln observed in the midst of the American Revolution, the dogmas of the quiet past will not work in the turbulent future. As our cause is new, so we must think and act anew. Cost control and management are of course essential, but alone are insufficient for businesses to survive and prosper in the current revolution; they may at best slow the hemorrhage, but will not lead to new ideas, new business opportunities, new revenue streams. Required is a forward looking, open ended, and creative approach to strategic thinking which adopts a pluralistic view of the future business environment rather than presupposing it to be well established, and which challenges the inertia and pitfalls of traditional business-as-usual thinking by opening up the strategic conversation within the organization. This is the essence of Sixth Sense and the vehicle advocated to move in this direction is scenario planning/thinking. Similarly to the term 'strategic', the term 'scenario planning' is used with various meaning but in its broadest sense, it is a tool for disciplined thinking about the future. Although not founded on axiom based theory, it is a well-developed strategic planning technique in both the public and business sectors. The significant departure of scenario planning from conventional long term planning models is that the scenario methodology assumes that it is neither useful nor possible to forecast the future and therefore it does not attempt to present the future as a single point estimate, but as a range of plausible and bounded alternatives. Whereas conventional strategic planning models are essentially analytical and focus predominantly on analysis and extrapolation of quantitative, historic data, scenario planning is largely intuitive taking as its starting point that the future is not likely to be a linear extension of the past, but an amalgam of numerous forces past, present and future, the causal relationships of which need to be understood. Undertaking a scenario planning exercise on the MBA is about equipping students with the skills for long-term survival and success in the world by learning to comprehend, anticipate and react to uncertainty and ambiguity rather than being paralysed by it. As Ged Davis, a former head of Scenario Planning in Shell International notes, the use of scenarios does not require us to be absolutely right we just have to be less surprised than those who are doing none of this thinking ideally, to be able to interpret as normal human affairs what others see as crises.
EIBE Workbook
which the organization operates. The EIBE Workbook is designed as an aid to the clarification of the scenario development process and to provide a framework for the presentation of the scenarios developed, and should be read and used in conjunction with material on the EIBE intranet site and the course textbook, The Sixth Sense: Accelerating organizational learning with scenarios. The Workbook is structured as follows: Section 2.0 provides an introduction to the EIBE Assignment which comprises 2 Tasks. Whereas Task I is a group exercise in which the group progresses through a scenario development process, Task 2 is an individual reflection assignment. The actual assignment itself is not included in the Workbook and should have been given to all students at the point when the course materials were distributed. A copy of the assignment is also available on the EIBE intranet site. Section 3.0 details the scenario development process and provides examples of the record sheets to be completed in undertaking Task 1 of the EIBE assignment, with explanatory notes on how the sheets should be completed by the groups. Section 4.0 provides blank copies of the record sheets for the Task 1 assignment in order of use. The Task 1 assignment calls for two iterations of the scenario development process; the 1st Iteration is a one-day scenario planning exercise designed specifically to familiarize the groups with the scenario development methodology. The 2nd Iteration follows the identical process but applies the experience of the groups learning and research findings in undertaking the 1st Iteration, in developing a new set of scenarios for the same client. The expectation is that 2nd Iteration will result in a demonstrably higher level of thinking and analysis in the scenario process outputs. Blank copies of the record sheets for both iterations are included in this section. Section 5.0 provides notes from The Learning Manager workshop which are intended as an aid to assist with managing group dynamics in undertaking the Task 1 group process, and with self-assessment of individual learning for completing the individual Task 2 assignment. Section 6.0 details a 10 step timed task process template which can be used for completing the 1st scenario iteration in a 6 hour period. The note provides guidance on the progression of steps to be taken in the scenario development process, and the timings involved in each step of the process. Section 7.0 articulating good research questions is the key to iterative scenario investigation and this section comprises an article by Professor Kees van der Heijden (who developed the EIBE course on the MBA programme), which provides guidance on the fundamental role of research in scenario development, and includes some tips for researchers. Scenario development is a lengthy, demanding process; as Ansoff has noted, Construction of scenarios is difficult and time-consuming and the final result is at best, laden with uncertainties and imprecision. At the same time, the EIBE course is unique and almost certainly unlike any other you have experienced; while thinking about the future may not be to everyones taste, the EIBE team hope that you find the course challenging and interesting, and that it will provide you with a useful tool for managing your life and career.
EIBE Workbook
It should be noted that the EIBE course is strictly concerned with scenario planning as a tool for making sense of the contextual environment and factors that will ultimately shape its development in particular ways in the future, the objective being to determine the implications this will have with respect to organisational strategy development. However the assignment must not enter into the arena of strategy development, there should be no discussion in the assignment with respect to the clients strategic response to the implications. Some important points to note about the Task 1 assignment: the assignment constitutes 80% of the total EIBE assessment. the assignment is normally undertaken as a group assignment and the maximum group size is strictly limited 6 students; the lower limit group size is generally 4 students but may be less if circumstances warrant it. In exceptional circumstances a student may be permitted to undertake the assignment on an individual basis. Once formed, it is imperative for the developmental learning process that groups remain the same throughout the EIBE module.
EIBE Workbook
there is no designated word limit for the Task 1 assignment and the assignment submission should include completed pro-forma sheets to cover two iterations of the scenario development process, summary notes on content of consultations with remarkable people, learning from key published sources, and a full list of references for all sources. You might find it helpful to also include photographs of the activities of your outputs from each iteration. Do not however bulk up your assignment submission by including copies of all of your research materials and data/descriptions of the scenario country. on completion of the assignment, each member of the group will be required to complete a Peer Assessment form evaluating the contribution made by each of the other team member to the group work in undertaking this assignment. The composite average peer assessment total for each student will then be applied to the group assignment mark, which depending on the totals, may result in each student in a group receiving a different mark.
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A diary of thoughts, discussions and decisions to be maintained for the group as a whole, covering both 1st and 2nd iterations, and including What are the key knowledge gaps the group has identified i.e. lack of knowledge or lack of support for current opinion in terms of the EIBE process and the country selected; and following from this: What are the key research questions identified during initial stage of investigation and analysis?
A record of decisions taken in order to seek answers to the process and factor research questions. Sources of data identified e.g. BIS, remarkable people, reports, etc.
Points of critical reflection on the EIBE and group process: This section should include not only critical reflections on the EIBE process, but also on your group/individual process and learning, related to material from Section 5.0 on group dynamics.
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Sheet 5: Driving Force Cluster Validation The objective of cluster validation is firstly, to ensure that each cluster is integral in that the driving forces in it essentially represents a single idea of interrelated concepts; and secondly, to identify the cause and effect, and chronology links of the driving forces within the cluster. The clustering work may be done as a paper exercise which is then converted to simple Powerpoint diagrams, or by using Decision Explorer software. In either case it is required that the outcomes be recorded in the Workbook. The result should be a series of diagrams, one for each cluster, similar to the following:-
Cluster Name
Sheet 6: Predictability/Impact Ranking of Driving Force Clusters The task is to rank each of the cluster headings by determining their placement on a relative predictability/impact matrix see diagram below. Impact in this case relates to the impact of the driving force on the clients areas of interest.
EIBE Workbook
Lower impact
Higher impact
Critical Uncertainties
Low predictability
Predictability meanwhile, relates to the driving force itself. High Predictability means we are reasonably certain that the driving force will play out in ways that are fairly well understood. Low predictability means that we have no clear idea which of a number of ways it might go. The 2 driving force cluster heading post-its at the bottom right corner of the matrix represent critical driving forces as they are simultaneously the most unpredictable driving forces and have the highest impact on the client organization/its areas of interest. It is these two that we then use to create a scenario matrix as the initial framework to develop a set of scenarios. Sheet 7: Framing and Scoping Scenario End States To create an initial scenario matrix, select the 2 critical driving forces. Ensure that they are independent driving forces/factors rather than interdependent factors, and place them across each other to form a matrix. These then form the A and B dimensions of the scenario matrix. Having created the scenario matrix comprising 4 scenario spaces, the next step is to establish the defining parameters of the end states by selecting plausible alternate outcomes (i.e. the extreme ends) of both the dimensions A and B in the horizon year, and develop high-level concept labels that encapsulate the essence of these dimensions (see example scenario end state parameters diagrams below) The final step in this stage is to define the end state of each of the scenarios by examining each of them in turn, and imagine what the world will look like in the horizon year (2025). Place some short phrases on post-its in each scenario box which characterize the end state of the world depicted in each scenario; the question then is how did this scenario come about, and we then use the event post-its from Sheet 3 as the factors/material for developing scenario stories which explain how things moved from today, to reach the end state.
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Lower impact
Higher impact Critical driving force 1 Low predictability Critical driving force 2 Scenario 4 Scenario 3 Scenario 1 Scenario 2
select two critical driving force clusters to create a matrix. ensure that the critical driving forces are independent of each other and not interdependent. determine the continuum and the polar outcomes of each driving force.
Scenario1
(A1+B1)
WorldEconomy
Scenario2
(A1+B2)
Scenario4
(A2+B1)
CriticaldrivingforceA:
B1:Individualistic/ Materialistic
Criticaldrivingforce B:ValueSystems
B2:Traditional/ Collectivist
Scenario3
(A2+B2)
A2:FracturedandDivisive
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Sheets 8-9: Scenario Stories and Implications In the 1st Iteration you must develop at least 1 of the 4 scenarios on the matrix into a scenario storyline. The number to be developed in the 2nd Iteration is dependent upon the group size i.e. a group of 5-6 students must produce 4 scenarios; a group of 3-4 must produce a minimum of 3, and a group of less than 3 students must produce a minimum of 2 scenarios. Here, you must take the event post-it material in each quadrant and develop them into a scenario outline which: tells the scenario story over the scenario time period, from an outline of the current situation to descriptions of the end state (some of this material will come directly from the scenario scope in Sheet 7, whilst other events and happenings will need to be added in order to complete the story); sets out the events that define the scenario story in terms of cause/effect reasoning and chronological order; and highlights the key implications for the client organization, in terms of impact on their particular area of interest (Note: this must not involve the clients responses to these).
The format for presentation of the scenario stories is open to interpretation but should include the scenario name, key descriptors of the present, key events over time, cause/effect and chronological linkages between events, key descriptors of the future end state, and key implications of events over time on the client organization and client areas of interest described in the assignment. The diagram below is one presentation format. (See Sheet 9 for details of alternative presentation formats). Scenario Title (short, themed and evocative of the scenario story)
Key events/happenings and their causal relationships over time.
Key descriptors of the present, in particular events already happening and which may set the foundations of developments in the future
Key descriptors of the future what will the world look like in the end state horizon year?
Present
Future
Key implications for the client organization of the impact of events over time, on its particular areas of interest.
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4.0
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1st Iteration
STIRDEEPER factors
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1st Iteration
Plausible Outcome B
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1st Iteration
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1st Iteration
Insert diagrams of each cluster in appropriate format. (See the example in Sheet 5 under Task 1: Examples and Explanatory Notes)
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1st Iteration
Low impact
High impact
Low predictability
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1st Iteration
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
Scenario 3
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1st Iteration
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1st Iteration
Given that the 1st Iteration is about understanding the process, only 1 scenario need be developed and presented, although you can if you wish, develop and present all 4 scenarios As a minimum the presentation of the scenario(s) should include the elements shown in Sheet 8-9 under Task 1: Examples and Explanatory Notes. This includes: the scenario name; key descriptors of the present; key events over time; cause/effect and chronological linkages between events; key descriptors of the future end state; and key implications of events over time on the client organization and client issues described in the assignment.
There are several ways this can be done; each scenario can be presented in: diagrammatic form overlaid with supporting text as shown in Sheet 8-9 under Task 1: Examples and Explanatory Notes. simple bullet point text format with sub-headings for the various scenario components i.e. key descriptors of the present, key events over time, and so on. detailed narrative (story) format which tells the story of the scenario from the present to the end state incorporating descriptors of the present, events over time and the cause/effect and chronological linkages between the events, and key descriptors of the end state. In this case there is generally no need for component headlines, except perhaps for the implications.
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2nd Iteration
STIRDEEPER factors
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2nd Iteration
Plausible Outcome B
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2nd Iteration
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2nd Iteration
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2nd Iteration
Low impact
High impact
Low predictability
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2nd Iteration
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
Scenario 3
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2nd Iteration
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2nd Iteration
In the 2nd Iteration, the number of scenarios to be developed depends on the group size. As specified in the assignment:
a group of 5-6 students must produce 4 scenarios; a group of 3-4 students must produce a minimum of 3 scenarios; and a group of less than 3 students must produce a minimum of 2 scenarios.
As indicated in Sheet 9, 1st Iteration, as a minimum the presentation of the scenarios should include the following elements: the scenario name; key descriptors of the present; key events over time; cause/effect and chronological linkages between events; key descriptors of the future end state; and key implications of events over time on the client organization and client issues described in the assignment.
And there are several ways this can be done; each scenario can be presented in: diagrammatic form overlaid with supporting text; bullet point text format with sub-headings for the various scenario components; or detailed narrative (story) format.
While marks for Task 1 are awarded for content rather than presentation, the medium of presentation is important and can serve to make the scenarios more engaging and compelling, and enhance their plausibility and authenticity. Notes: 1. It is expected that having understood the process in undertaking the 1st Iteration, the 2nd Iteration will then demonstrate a much higher level of thinking, supported by rigorous research, and this should be evident in the scenario stories. 2. As Pierre Wack, the so-called father of modern day business scenario planning noted, The test of a good scenario exercise is not whether any of the scenarios developed was correct or not, but whether the scenarios illuminated the unknown, while challenging our individual and organisational assumptions, forcing us to clarify our thinking, stimulating and structuring difficult discussions, and getting us to ask the right questions and face the hard choices required to adapt ourselves and our organisations to manage future change. A scenario exercise is good if it better prepares us to make better decisions on a future that is inherently uncertain. The above being the case, it is imperative that the 2nd Iteration scenarios bring some new thinking and insights to the client organisation, and highlight the implications inherent in each scenario, thereby providing a basis for the organisation to make better decisions in terms of their strategic plans.
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role and meaning of interruption and the use of metaphor and story based examples); and (3) time pressure. Tip: Forewarned is forearmed. Be warned - there will be members of your group who have a lot to say but may struggle saying it, or struggle to say it in a way that is easily and quickly understandable to others. The fact that you are aware that this will undoubtedly be the case ought to help in setting your expectations and extending your patience. It is the facilitators role to ensure that the group remains patient when communication is difficult remembering to check out meanings: i.e. the message has been received correctly. If there are complex messages that you or another group member is trying to offer to the rest of the group, the facilitator can be used to help and support the message sender by clarifying, summarizing and checking out understanding. Remember how useful its can be to use tools: white boards, Post-it s, drawing models etc. 4. Organization of the Task Process Problem: Here, groups can find themselves in difficulty if they are not following a clearly worked through and fully supported (everyone buys into it) rationale for how the group intends to go about their allocated task. Lack of clarity around process and the organization of the task can lead to confusion, duplication of effort, reduction in motivation, and can have a detrimental effect on the groups ability to achieve their goal. Also, in recently formed groups trust can be an issue. This manifests in a failure to allocate tasks to small sub-groups and results in the whole group doing everything together. This is poor use of time and is likely to impede the groups ability to achieve their goal. Tip: Before diving straight into doing mode, ensure that your group spends time thinking about process, planning key stages, working out individual members strengths and weaknesses and allocating the right person to the right task. For instance, one group member may not be good at researching and making sense of data, they may be more suited to attending to the presentation of material e.g. typing up ideas, putting presentations together. In sharing strengths and weaknesses, try to be honest about areas where you will need help and support in order to set appropriate expectations. Revisit the process plan. It should not be seen as concrete and ought to be flexible as your group proceeds towards its goal. Revisiting the process plan ought to be part of your groups process based discussion at the end of your meetings. An important part of process clarity is goal clarity. Each group member should be aware of the groups goal and the specific line of argument and exploration the group has agreed to follow. Take time out in all sessions to be clear how each contribution (e.g. piece of research, written section of a report) is working towards the groups goal. In this way any group members who for whatever reason are pursuing a different agenda, will be forced to defend their rejection of the agreed goals.
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4. Freeloading Problem: Here an individual or pocket of individuals, appear to be, or in fact are freeloading: that is, withholding effort from the groups endeavor. In this situation other group members are carrying the workload of the freeloaders, and in most cases feel intensely resentful of the unequal distribution of effort. The real problem arises when the freeloaders go unchallenged and simply experience positive re-enforcement of their behavior: i.e. I dont have to try as hard as the rest of the group in order to share in the overall success. This learning outcome is fatal for both the group and the individual. Tip: As with the dominance (and in fact all of these issues) early intervention is crucial. Rotating facilitation and time for process issues at the end of each group meeting is a useful mechanism to ensure that free loading can be addressed early. If the group has kept a clear note of task allocation and deadlines, then any freeloading activity becomes transparent. As with issue 1, the freeloading issue should be tackled within the group environment and feedback should be task focused. Note: When it comes to so-called freeloading, as with several other courses on the MBA, the EIBE course uses a peer assessment process whereby each group member is required to complete a Peer Assessment form evaluating the contribution made by each of the other team member to the group work in undertaking the assignment. The composite average peer assessment total for each student will then be applied to the group assignment mark, which depending on the totals, may result in each student in a group receiving a different mark. The objective of this peer assessment is to fairly recognize and reflect in the final group mark for each member in the group, the contribution of the individual members in completing the assignment. It should be recognized that not all group members will contribute equally in the same way, group members will inevitably contribute in very different ways. Some for example, may be good at organising and facilitating group discussions; others may be relatively quiet in group meetings, but are skilled in undertaking desk-based research, while others may have a particular strength in structuring and writing the scenarios. Ideally the group should attempt to work as a team with all contributing to the assignment equally albeit in different ways. Thus properly applied, peer assessment should be used to identify and appropriately penalize freeloaders i.e. those individuals withholding effort from the groups endeavor, it should not be used vindictively and maliciously to punish any individual simply because of differences in opinion and/or personality clashes.
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Note: Use one post-it per driving force and identify each in no more than 5-6 words; write in big, legible characters on the post-its so that they can be read from a distance. Do not put down a single word as a driving force such as economy, be more specific about what you mean i.e. is this the economy of a particular country, or region? Do you mean economic downturn, economic growth, or perhaps economic stagnation? OUTPUT: A wide range of driving force post-its (Record on Sheet 2)
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Step 3: Clarifying driving forces and plausible outcomes (Time allotted, 1 hour)
The facilitator should collect the driving force post-its from each group member one by one, asking each to contribute their most important ideas. The facilitator places each post-it on the working area on the wall and invites the contributor(s) to clarify what s/he means by the driving force, by identifying two plausible alternative outcomes that illustrate the range of uncertainty with respect to the driving force these should be polar extremes i.e. extremes at either end of a continuum. For example, the driving force domestic political climate in the UK could have as outcomes Labour elected or Tories elected. Or UK domestic economic growth could have the outcome on one hand as recession in 2xxx, followed by recovery in 2xxx, and the outcome on the other hand as continued growth through 2xxx at X.X % GDP growth pa. The two plausible alternative outcomes should be captured on post-its. The challenge is to ensure that there is no ambiguity in the driving forces post-its, that the intended meaning of each is understood by all group members. The facilitator should not allow elaborate debate on the validity of the statements, normally stating the 2 alternative outcomes of the driving force is sufficient clarification of what is intended. The facilitator should go around the room until all ideas have been captured in this way. There will inevitably be some duplication with one or more group members thinking of the same driving force. However it is often the case that what may initially appear as the same idea as one already covered by someone else, is in fact quite a different one when the author of it explains what s/he means as clarified by the alternative outcomes. The post-its with the alternative outcomes of each of the driving forces are called the event post-its and these should be kept in a separate pile for later processing. OUTPUT: Understanding driving forces/their potential outcomes (Record on Sheet 3)
Step 5: Validating and naming of driving force clusters (Time allotted, 30 minutes)
The next step in the process is to test the logic of the clusters by drawing influence diagrams that link each of the elements in the cluster, one diagram per cluster. These should be drawn on A4 sheets of paper and done in parallel with each group member working on several clusters. Each cluster should represent one central idea; if necessary the clusters can be rearranged if some elements do not seem to fit naturally, by exchanging post-its between clusters. It is also acceptable to have one element which appears in two (or more) clusters. Once the diagrams are completed the clusters should be named by identifying in 2 or 3 words, the central idea that embodies each cluster (avoid using just one word). The cluster name should be written on a (different coloured) post-it and attached to the clusters. A second spare copy of the cluster names should be made on post-its and retained for use in the Step 6 of the process which follows.
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The cluster diagrams should be posted on the wall and the group should review them. The facilitator should ensure that the group members understand how the elements in each of the clusters are linked, but should not allow an extended debate on the validity of the clusters or their names. OUTPUT: Influences/links in clusters clarified & clusters named. (Record on Sheet 5)
Step 7: Developing the scenario matrix and end states (Time allotted, 1 hour)
The post-its that are nearest to the bottom right-hand corner of the matrix denote driving forces that have the highest impact but also the lowest predictability, and as such represent so-called critical driving, and will be used to develop the initial scenario matrix. Another flipchart sheet should be attached to the wall and divided into four quadrants by drawing lines top to bottom and left to right through the middle (see Sheet 7). Select the two post-its that are at the bottom right hand corner of the predictability/impact matrix and place one on the horizontal axis, the other on the vertical to form a matrix, thereby creating an initial framework for developing 4 scenarios. Note: It is essential to ensure that the two post-its selected are not interdependent driving forces. Although it may be argued that at some level almost everything is connected to everything else, as far as possible the driving forces selected should be independent of each other; if they are interdependent they will invariably move in unison and therefore essentially represent only one driving force.
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Having determined that they are largely independent of each other, the next step is to examine each driving force, think about alternative outcomes for each within the horizon year and then develop high-level concept labels that encapsulate the essence of their dimensions and alternative outcomes as a continuum. For example one dimension or driving force on the horizontal axis could be the state of the domestic economy in which case the alternative outcomes and thus the dimension headings might be resilient and growing at the left end of the axis, and stagnant and moribund at the right. This exercise requires a trial and error approach and it has proven to be more effective to quickly try out ideas and later reject them, if necessary, than to try to come up with the ultimate answer in one go. In placing the two independent driving forces across each other and labeling their outcomes, an initial 4 box scenario matrix is created, each of the boxes representing a distinct scenario (see Sheet 7). The group should now move to developing the end state for each scenario. This is done by looking at each of the 4 scenarios in turn and imagining what the world will look like in the scenario in the horizon year and then placing some words and/or short phrases on post-its in the scenario box which characterize the end state of the world depicted in that particular scenario. For example, in a scenario box bounded by a stagnant and moribund economy and an ineffectual and corrupt government, characteristics of such a scenario might include: deteriorating infrastructure, decreasing FDI, voter apathy, social unrest, brain-drain, and so on. The final element of this step is to name the 4 scenarios. The names should be short, and themed where possible and should clearly call up the general image of the end states designed. OUTPUT: Initial scenario matrix and scenario end-states. (Record on Sheet 7)
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If a group find they have in their scenario space an event post-it that is fundamentally at variance with the underlying scenario theme, they should pass this to one of the other groups dealing with a scenario that may more logically accommodate it. Before finishing their scenario each group should revisit the influence diagrams made for the driving force clusters (Step 5) as these may prove useful as inspiration to enrich and embellish the storyline. OUTPUT: A plausible chronological storyline and story map for each scenario.
Step 10: Sharing the storylines/developing the research agenda (Time 40 minutes)
In the final process step, each group should take 5 minutes to give the rest of the group a summary of the storyline for their scenario, relating how events unfold from the current date to the scenario horizon year, and the implications. The audience groups should raise questions about the scenarios regarding inconsistencies, apparent contradictions, gaps and plausibility issues with the scenario storylines/maps. The facilitator should consolidate the lists of questions which arise from this and step 9 into one list of areas for research that the group needs to tackle. Finally, a group discussion is required to determine priorities, and which group members will be tasked with what areas to research, and when the next group meeting to discuss the research findings will take place OUTPUT: Focused research agenda and allocation of research tasks.
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An example
The research questions arise mostly while trying to connect the present reality with the endstates developed in the two-by-two matrix. Telling that story in some detail is crucially important, because in doing so you discover where you lack understanding of the underlying structure in the situation. For example consider a recent set of scenarios for a major European airport. The scenario group had chosen as their main dimensions: whether current political constraints, imposed by the government on the level of activity at this airport (located in a densely populated area) would persist; and whether one or more major airline(s) would use it as their main European hub.
This produced three scenarios, as one of the four was considered inconsistent (accommodating a major airline hub within existing constraints). Initially the scenario group did not fill out the scenarios further, and used the three end-states as strategy test conditions. That project was perceived as somewhat less than successful. It is clear that the team at that stage looked at first generation scenarios (or rather end-states) only. It was clear the stories had to be worked out over time. In doing so two major elements emerged as unknowns requiring further study: to what extent will the trend towards concentration in the airline industry in Europe persist over the next 20 years? to what extent (and at what level) will the hub and spoke system be the most effective way for airlines to make money in the years to come?
These aspects were then analysed thoroughly before going any further. In doing so some underpinning structure emerged that allowed the team to understand better what might happen. They found some predetermined elements lurking in this structure that needed to be uncovered to help in the design of strategy. Discovering some systemic features in either or both of these areas constituted a major payout for the project, even though the scenarios were not any longer valid. The team then continued in a second generation round. The scenario project had allowed the team to avoid wasting time on subjects of secondary importance and highlighted important aspects that needed further work. So, summarising the discussion so far: the purpose of scenarios is to give us an idea of what we don't know and therefore need to research. having learned what we don't know, we then have to go and do focused research. the results of the research must be incorporated in the next generation of scenarios. a sound process involves at least three iterations in this way. good projects are measured in months, not days or weeks. Most of the work is systems research.
Is it not a pity that scenario planners so often stop half-way, just doing the scenarios, maybe getting to the right questions, and then failing to carry that through to real new understanding by failing to take the time to do the research required? Just scenarios does not get you there, just as just analysis doesn't get you there either. It is the combination, carried out in a few cycles, that can't fail to lead you to the small number of crucial questions, where analysis
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gives you the key systemic insights. And it is ONLY those insights that will lead you to superior strategy.
The questions to the Remarkable People are also helpful here: what is happening that matters/could matter? what is the relevant system to study? what is the appropriate level of "granularity" (detail) of observation? what are other ways of looking at this?
Research results
Research results are initially scattered over a wide are, in the form of many relatively unrelated ideas and observations. The team needs to process these by considering how they affect the systemic understanding reached so far. General points to be taken into account include: the Business Environment is a system. Look for interrelations in the system, the combinations of the multiple elements that are driving it. look at the current reality and the short-term as well as the longer term. pay particular attention to the predetermined elements. Dont rest until as many uncertainties as possible have been turned into predetermineds. find the sensitive points of maximum leverage.
The research phase is always followed by a further scenario-building round, during which disparate bits of learning are brought together and integrated in a few storylines.
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Tips for researchers Chris Ertel, GBNs top researcher, has a few suggestions for scenario researchers that are worth considering: Think like a journalist. Approach your research in the spirit of a journalist, learning as much as you can as fast as you can without being too concerned about whether you are "covering everything" or not. The goal is not to reach the definitive answer to a question, but to raise the level of understanding as best we can as fast as we can. To succeed, we merely need to know more than we did when we started about the topic at hand. Use interviews as much as possible. Talking with very knowledgeable people is the most time-effective way to learn a lot about a topic. Still, if you are approaching an issue you know little about, you will want to do just enough reading and scanning in advance to make sure that you are asking good questions. And the most important question in any interview is the last one: "who else should I be talking to about this?" Focus on lead users/adopters. Most aspects of your scenarios are already happening - somewhere. "Visiting" these worlds (by reading or interviews) is one of the best ways to "see" the futures now. Focus when doing research, get rid of other tasks. Even if just for an hour at a time. Good research really does require careful thought and minimal distraction. Few people can do good research with the phone ringing and email a-chirping in the background. Save every useful article. Remember that you are going to use this material in a variety of ways. For example, for graphics presentations, you may want to use newspaper headlines and magazine covers as illustration. Keep everything that might be useful in this way. You do need an elaborate filing system, just make sure you can find what you need when you want it. Don't forget the 80-20 rule. Research is never done until you say it is. It is up to you to decide that it is done when you are hitting a clear point of diminishing returns (i.e. when you are working harder and harder to learn less and less new things). Have fun! It's a great luxury to learn. Think like a detective. Play with the material. Talk with people who think differently than you do. Go for a walk or a run. Juggle. Keep looking at the question from different angles.
This is the main purpose. But there are also a number of subsidiary objectives of the research related to improving the quality of the final scenarios presented to the client and beyond. These include: to increase the level of granularity of the story; one factor having an impact on the persuasiveness of a scenario is its richness of detail. Hitting upon the right anecdote,
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the one compelling image is not trivial, but often requires sifting significant volumes of data. to increase the depth and dimensionality of uncertainties, spelling out exactly what we mean by them. For example, a key driver such as 'liberalisation' can be conceptualised in many different ways. The team needs to get beyond a rather vague idea of 'freeing up the markets'. to identify more probable and worked out dynamics; the dynamics of scenario narratives should delve into a fully plausible nexus of patterns and events, let alone to design in an intricate web of feedback loops that helps the client to understand his situation.
The above is an extract from Kees van der Heijdens book: Scenarios, the art of Strategic Conversation, 2nd edition (2005), published by John Wiley & Sons.
A final thought.. Keep an open mind on all aspects of the study, and enjoy.
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