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Project on: EXCHANGE RATES

Introduction
In finance, an exchange rate (also known as the foreign-exchange rate, forex rate or FX rate) between two currencies is the rate at which one currency will be exchanged for another. It is also regarded as the value of one countrys currency in terms of another currency.[1] For example, an interbank exchange rate of 91 Japanese yen (JPY, ) to the United States dollar (US$) means that 91 will be exchanged for each US$1 or that US$1 will be exchanged for each 91. Exchange rates are determined in the foreign exchange market,[2] which is open to a wide range of different types of buyers and sellers where currency trading is continuous: 24 hours a day except weekends, i.e. trading from 20:15 GMT on Sunday until 22:00 GMT Friday. The spot exchange rate refers to the current exchange rate. The forward exchange rate refers to an exchange rate that is quoted and traded today but for delivery and payment on a specific future date.

Retail exchange market


People may need to exchange currencies in a number of situations. For example, people intending to travel to another country may buy foreign currency in a bank in their home country, where they may buy foreign currency cash, traveller's cheques or a travel-card. From a local money changer they can only buy foreign cash. At the destination, the traveller can buy local currency at the airport, either from a dealer or through an ATM. They can also buy local currency at their hotel, a local money changer, through an ATM, or at a bank branch. When they purchase goods in a store and they do not have local currency, they can use a credit card, which will convert to the purchaser's home currency at its prevailing exchange rate. If they have traveller's cheques or a travel card in the local currency, no currency exchange is necessary. Then, if a traveller has any foreign currency left over on their return home, may want to sell it, which they may do at their local bank or money changer. The exchange rate as well as fees and charges can vary significantly on each of these transactions, and the exchange rate can vary from one day to the next. There are variations in the quoted buying and selling rates for a currency between foreign exchange dealers and forms of exchange, and these variations can be significant. For example, consumer exchange rates used by Visa and MasterCard offer the most favorable exchange rates available, according to a Currency Exchange Study conducted by CardHub.com.[3] This study, which examined the U.S. dollar-to-Euro exchange rates provided by the major worldwide credit card

networks, 15 of the largest consumer banks in the U.S., and Travelex, showed that the credit card networks save travelers about 8% relative to banks and roughly 15% relative to airport companies.

Purchasing power of currency


The "real exchange rate" (RER) is the purchasing power of a currency relative to another. It is based on the GDP deflator measurement of the price level in the domestic and foreign countries (P,Pf), which is arbitrarily set equal to 1 in a given base year. Therefore, the level of the RER is arbitrarily set depending on which year is chosen as the base year for the GDP deflator of two countries. The changes of the RER are instead informative on the evolution over time of the relative price of a unit of GDP in the foreign country in terms of GDP units of the domestic country. If all goods were freely tradable, and foreign and domestic residents purchased identical baskets of goods, purchasing power parity (PPP) would hold for the GDP deflators of the two countries, and the RER would be constant and equal to one.

Balance of payments model


This model holds that a foreign exchange rate must be at its equilibrium level - the rate which produces a stable current account balance. A nation with a trade deficit will experience reduction in its foreign exchange reserves, which ultimately lowers (depreciates) the value of its currency. The cheaper currency renders the nation's goods (exports) more affordable in the global market place while making imports more expensive. After an intermediate period, imports are forced down and exports rise, thus stabilizing the trade balance and the currency towards equilibrium. Like PPP, the balance of payments model focuses largely on trade-able goods and services, ignoring the increasing role of global capital flows. In other words, money is not only chasing goods and services, but to a larger extent, financial assets such as stocks and bonds. Their flows go into the capital account item of the balance of payments, thus balancing the deficit in the current account. The increase in capital flows has given rise to the asset market model.

Manipulation of exchange rates

Countries may gain an advantage in international trade if they manipulate the value of their currency by artificially keeping its value low, typically by the national central bank engaging in open_market operations. It is argued that the People's Republic of China has succeeded in doing this over a long period of time. However, in a real-world situation, a 2005 appreciation of the Yuan by 22% was followed by a 38.7% increase in Chinese imports to the US.[6][7] In 2010, other nations, including Japan and Brazil, attempted to devalue their currency in the hopes of subsidizing cheap exports and bolstering their ailing economies. A low exchange rate lowers the price of a country's goods for consumers in other countries but raises the price of goods, especially imported goods, for consumers in the manipulating country.

How Is Exchange Rate Determined??


This is the one question that crops up in everyones mind, whenever we read reports such as, Rs. appreciating, US Dollar falling down, everywhere. In a very simple language ,we can say that Demand and supply determines the value of any currency against any other currency. Suppose the demand for Rupee is higher owing to excess supply of dollar (i.e. more number of people want to convert their dollar in to Rupee), value of dollar will naturally decline against Rupee. This is the fundamental principle of Demand and Supply driven Exchange rate. Not every nation on the earth follows the system of Demand and supply for determining the exchange rate. Some have pegged the value of their currency against others (like china) and some follow the route of `Free float` and intervention (by central bank) now and then whenever required (like India).

It was the earliest method used for determining the value of a currency Under the gold standard, currency issuers guarantee to redeem notes, upon demand, in that amount of gold. Governments that employ such a fixed unit of account, and which will redeem their notes to other governments in gold, share a fixed-currency relationship.This system avoids frivolous printing of currency and keeps the inflation under check. With expanding trade beyond geographies and transactions taking place across nations, this system of Gold standard was ill equipped to address the concerns and complexities of the new changing and dynamic world order.

`Gold Standard`

Bretton Woods System This new order came in to exisistence in 1944.


Preparing to rebuild the international economic system as World War II was still raging, 730 delegates from all 44 Allied nations gathered at the Mount Washington Hotel in Bretton Woods, for the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference. The delegates deliberated upon and signed the Bretton Woods Agreements during the first three weeks of July 1944.Here the participating countries agreed to fix the value of their currencies with in the fixed value (i.e. plus or minus some percentage in terms of gold) and it was also agreed that IMF would help those nations in case of serious problems in Balance of Payments.But this system also collapsed in 70s when US unilaterally decided to move out of this system and refused to convert the dollar into gold. This is the simple and most effective method to determine the value of currency which is used almost everywhere worldwide. (With some exceptions and modifications)This is also popularly called as free float system, where the market forces are given a free hand to determine the value of any currency based on Demand and supply for respective currencies.

Demand and Supply

6 Factors That Influence Exchange Rates


Aside from factors such as interest rates and inflation, the exchange rate is one of the most important determinants of a country's relative level of economic health. Exchange rates play a vital role in a country's level of trade, which is critical to most every free market economy in the world. For this reason, exchange rates are among the most watched, analyzed and governmentally manipulated economic measures. But exchange rates matter on a smaller scale as well: they impact the real return of an investor's portfolio. Here we look at some of the major forces behind exchange rate movements.

Overview
Before we look at these forces, we should sketch out how exchange rate movements affect a nation's trading relationships with other nations. A higher currency makes a country's exports more expensive and imports cheaper in foreign markets; a lower currency makes a country's exports cheaper and its imports more expensive in foreign markets. A higher exchange rate can be expected to lower the country's balance of trade, while a lower exchange rate would increase it.

Determinants of Exchange Rates


Numerous factors determine exchange rates, and all are related to the trading relationship between two countries. Remember, exchange rates are relative, and are expressed as a comparison of the currencies of two countries. The following are some of the principal determinants of the exchange rate between two countries. Note that these factors are in no particular order; like many aspects of economics, the relative importance of these factors is subject to much debate. 1. Differentials in Inflation As a general rule, a country with a consistently lower inflation rate exhibits a rising currency value, as its purchasing power increases relative to other currencies. During the last half of the twentieth century, the countries with low inflation included Japan, Germany and Switzerland, while the U.S. and

Canada achieved low inflation only later. Those countries with higher inflation typically see depreciation in their currency in relation to the currencies of their trading partners. This is also usually accompanied by higher interest rates. (To learn more, see Cost-Push Inflation Versus Demand-Pull Inflation.) 2. Differentials in Interest Rates Interest rates, inflation and exchange rates are all highly correlated. By manipulating interest rates, central banks exert influence over both inflation and exchange rates, and changing interest rates impact inflation and currency values. Higher interest rates offer lenders in an economy a higher return relative to other countries. Therefore, higher interest rates attract foreign capital and cause the exchange rate to rise. The impact of higher interest rates is mitigated, however, if inflation in the country is much higher than in others, or if additional factors serve to drive the currency down. The opposite relationship exists for decreasing interest rates - that is, lower interest rates tend to decrease exchange rates. (For further reading, see What Is Fiscal Policy?) 3. Current-Account Deficits The current account is the balance of trade between a country and its trading partners, reflecting all payments between countries for goods, services, interest and dividends. A deficit in the current account shows the country is spending more on foreign trade than it is earning, and that it is borrowing capital from foreign sources to make up the deficit. In other words, the country requires more foreign currency than it receives through sales of exports, and it supplies more of its own currency than foreigners demand for its products. The excess demand for foreign currency lowers the country's exchange rate until domestic goods and services are cheap enough for foreigners, and foreign assets are too expensive to generate sales for domestic interests. (For more, see Understanding The Current Account In The Balance Of Payments.) 4. Public Debt Countries will engage in large-scale deficit financing to pay for public sector projects and governmental funding. While such activity stimulates the domestic economy, nations with large public deficits and debts are less attractive to foreign investors. The reason? A large debt encourages inflation, and if inflation is high, the debt will be serviced and ultimately paid off with cheaper real dollars in the future. In the worst case scenario, a government may print money to pay part of a

large debt, but increasing the money supply inevitably causes inflation. Moreover, if a government is not able to service its deficit through domestic means (selling domestic bonds, increasing the money supply), then it must increase the supply of securities for sale to foreigners, thereby lowering their prices. Finally, a large debt may prove worrisome to foreigners if they believe the country risks defaulting on its obligations. Foreigners will be less willing to own securities denominated in that currency if the risk of default is great. For this reason, the country's debt rating (as determined by Moody's or Standard & Poor's, for example) is a crucial determinant of its exchange rate. 5. Terms of Trade A ratio comparing export prices to import prices, the terms of trade is related to current accounts and the balance of payments. If the price of a country's exports rises by a greater rate than that of its imports, its terms of trade have favorably improved. Increasing terms of trade shows greater demand for the country's exports. This, in turn, results in rising revenues from exports, which provides increased demand for the country's currency (and an increase in the currency's value). If the price of exports rises by a smaller rate than that of its imports, the currency's value will decrease in relation to its trading partners. 6. Political Stability and Economic Performance Foreign investors inevitably seek out stable countries with strong economic performance in which to invest their capital. A country with such positive attributes will draw investment funds away from other countries perceived to have more political and economic risk. Political turmoil, for example, can cause a loss of confidence in a currency and a movement of capital to the currencies of more stable countries.

CONCLUSION
The exchange rate of the currency in which a portfolio holds the bulk of its investments determines that portfolio's real return. A declining exchange rate obviously decreases the purchasing power of income and capital gains derived from any returns. Moreover, the exchange rate influences other income factors such as interest rates, inflation and even capital gains from domestic securities. While exchange rates are determined by numerous complex factors that often leave even the most experienced economists flummoxed, investors should still have some understanding of how currency values and exchange

rates play an important role in the rate of return on their investments.

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