DAILY NEWSLETTER OF ESSENTIAL

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

MARKET WEATHER INFORMATION

Morning forecast

QT Weather
weather at a glance
Argentina shows worst in W and S Brazil mostly O.K.? E Argentina shows y-o-y surprise

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A Mixed Picture
Argentina crop remote sensing shows some year over year surprises, contra La Nina. The worst vegetation condition shows over W and S Argentina, while Brazil shows some year over year improvement. The near term outlook for Argentina is wettest in the parched S and W and driest in the East.

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As of 12/23a mixed vegetation composite. Year over year improved (blue) in Uruguay, N, E and far S Argentina. Deterioration (brown) in WC, SW and S Argentina.

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In Brazil, S and parts of SE Brazil have deteriorated, while center-west and parts of SE and far S Brazil show improvement. Recent rains have also improved Uruguay compared to the same time last year.

Todays weather maps

About Allen Motew

Allen Motew has been an expert weather analyst for more than 35 years. With a Seal of Approval for Broadcasters from the American Meteorological Society, Allen specializes in global weather prediction, synoptic scale and mesonet analysis, and severe weather events. He is trained in forecasting hurricanes, tropical cyclones and international weather events for government and private industry interests from around the globe. A Chicago native, Allen broadcasts his local, domestic and international commodity weather forecasts from the Chicago Board of Trade.

Remotely sensed droughtover the past 4 weeks, moderate to exceptional drought has spread over W Argentina and parts of Mato Grosso do Sul and W Sao Paulo, Brazil. Also, a strip of intensifying drought shows in central Buenos Aires.

Vegetation health7-day composite ending 12/23. ...values below 40 indicating different levels of vegetation stress, losses of crop and pasture production might be expected. If the indices are above 60, plentiful production might be expected

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South America Vegetation Health (Dec 23)indices below 40 show distinctly in red, from center-south, Brazil to a much broader area of west and south Argentina.

The next two weeks (through 1/11) from this mornings GFS model outputthe heaviest Argentine rains will cross South Argentina and miss E Argentina, Uruguay into Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.