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Modeling and simulation (M&S) is the use of models, including emulators, prototypes, simulators, and stimulators, either statically

or over time, to develop data as a basis for making managerial or technical decisions. The terms "modeling" and "simulation" are often used interchangeably.[1] The use of modeling and simulation (M&S) within engineering is well recognized. Simulation technology belongs to the tool set of engineers of all application domains and has been included into the body of knowledge of engineering management. M&S has already helped to reduce costs and increase the quality of products and systems and lessons learned are documented and archived. M&S is a discipline on its own. Its many application domains often lead to the assumption that M&S is pure application. This is not the case and needs to be recognized by engineering management experts who want to use M&S. To ensure that the results of simulation are applicable to the real world the engineering manager must understand assumptions, conceptualizations, and implementation constraints of this emerging field. Technically, simulation is well accepted. The 2006 National Science Foundation (NSF) Report on Simulation-based Engineering Science [2] showed the potential of using simulation technology and methods to revolutionize the engineering science. Among the reasons for the steadily increasing interest in simulation applications are the following:

Using simulations is as a rule cheaper and safer than conducting experiments with a prototype of the real thing. One of the biggest computers worldwide is currently designed in order to simulate the detonation of nuclear devices and their effects in order to support better preparedness in the event of a nuclear explosion. Similar efforts are conducted to simulate hurricanes and other natural catastrophes. Simulations can often be even more realistic than traditional experiments, as they allow the free configuration of environment parameters found in the operational application field of the final product. Examples are supporting deep water operation of the US Navy or the simulating the surface of neighbored planets in preparation of NASA missions. Simulations can often be conducted faster than real time. This allows using them for efficient if-then-else analyses of different alternatives, in particular when the necessary data to initialize the simulation can easily be obtained from operational data. This use of simulation adds decision support simulation systems to the tool box of traditional decision support systems. Simulations allow setting up a coherent synthetic environment that allows for integration of simulated systems in the early analysis phase via mixed virtual systems with first prototypical components to a virtual test environment for the final system. If managed correctly, the environment can be migrated from the development and test domain to the training and education domain in follow-on life cycle phases for the systems (including the option to train and optimize a virtual twin of the real system under realistic constraints even before first components are being built).

The emerging discipline of M&S is based on developments in diverse computer science areas as well as influenced by developments in System Theories, Systems Engineering, Software Engineering, Artificial Intelligence, and more. This foundation is as diverse as that of engineering management and brings elements of art, engineering, and science together in a complex and unique way that requires domain experts to enable appropriate decisions when it comes application or development of M&S technology in the context of this paper. The diversity and application-oriented nature of this new discipline sometimes results in the challenge, that the supported application domains themselves already have vocabularies in place that are not necessarily aligned between disjunctive domains. A comprehensive and concise representation of concepts, terms, and activities is needed that make up a professional Body of Knowledge for the M&S discipline. Due to the broad variety of contributors, this process is still ongoing. Although the terms modeling and simulation are often used as synonyms within disciplines applying M&S exclusively as a tool, within the discipline of M&S both are treated as individual and equally important concepts. Modeling is understood is the purposeful abstraction of reality, resulting in the formal specification of a conceptualization and underlying assumptions and constraints. M&S is in particular interested in models that are used to support the implementation of an executable version on a computer. The execution of a model over time is understood as the simulation. While modeling targets the conceptualization, simulation challenges mainly focus on implementation, in other words, modeling resides on the abstraction level, whereas simulation resides on the implementation level. Conceptualization and implementation modeling and simulation are two activities that are mutually dependent, but can nonetheless be conducted by separate individuals. Management and engineering knowledge and guidelines are needed to ensure that they are well connected. Like an engineering management professional in systems engineering needs to make sure that the systems design captured in a systems architecture is aligned with the systems development, this task needs to be conducted with the same level of professionalism for the model that has to be implemented as well. In summary, three activities have to be conducted and orchestrated to ensure success: a model must be produced that captures formally the conceptualization, a simulation must implement this model, and management processes must ensure that model and simulation are interconnected and on the current state (which means that normally the model needs to be updated in case the simulation is changed as well). M&S in modern military organizations is part of the acquisition/procurement strategy. Specifically, M&S is used to conduct Events and Experiments that influence Requirements and Training for military Systems. As such, M&S is considered an integral part of systems engineering of military Systems.

Types of model:
A model is an abstraction from reality used to help understand the object or system being modeled. People use modeling all the time to make decisions in their everyday lives although they usually dont do so in a formal way. Here are some common things are models: 1 Maps are models of a portion of the earths surface. They are made from materials that do not match that surface (traditionally made of paper rather than earth and rock), they have a different form that abstracts many objects shown on the map and leaves other out altogether. For example, a street map leaves out information on the topography, representing the earth as a flat plane. It shows only the streets and their names, direction relative to the north pole, and perhaps a scale and a title. They are generally drawn to scale so that one can calculate the approximate distance on the real earth that is represented by the proportional distance on the map. Computer maps are a special type of map that is virtual and goes away when the computer is turned off. 2 Most computer games are models of real or imaginary worlds programmed in a computer. The game programmers decide how objects in that virtual world behave do they follow the ordinary rules of physics or are some of those suspended allowing them the characters to jump extraordinary distances or fly. They also choose which objects to animate and which are left as static backgrounds even though the real objects in a real world are subject to changes over periods of minutes, hours, or days. 3 Many toys are models of real objects, scaled down or changed in their operation so that they are not dangerous or messy like toy trucks, guns, swords, dolls, dishes, stoves. People naturally use their experiences to create mental models of things they encounter in ways to help themselves learn and survive. Most of us know that brown water is probably not healthy to drink. We know that a car in the snow can possible skid and therefore we should drive slower and leave more space and time to stop. In Columbus, Ohio, the prediction of snow seems to create a model in many peoples mind that has them slow down even if it doesnt snow. Types of Models Models can be characterized and classified in a number of ways, but a complete review of those definitions is not really important to our work in this course. However, let's define a few broad categories of models to help us understand how they work. These categories are not necessarily mutually exclusive since a lot of models involve elements from several types. Physical Models

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Physical models are scale representations of the same physical entities they represent. They are used primarily in engineering of large-scale projects to examine a limited set of behavioral characteristics in the system. The illustration and site below are a good example of a physical model -- one of a stream and dam used to simulate the rate of outflow from the dam under a variety of circumstances. In the electronic version of this document there is link that explains more about this physical model (http://mhl.nsw.gov.au/www/warragvt.htmlx). Model of river and dam Mathematical Models Models that are run on a computer require the translation of a mental model into a set of rules and structures that can be represented in mathematical terms using a programming or modeling language. Mathematical models use mathematical equations to represent the key relationships among system components. The equations can be derived in a number of ways. Many of them come from extensive scientific studies that have formulated a mathematical relationship and then tested it against real data, just like our "driving to work" example. Some come from laboratory testing of relationships where that is feasible. Sometimes real data are used to derive relationships using statistical techniques to fit a particular relationship to the data and to measure the level of error associated with that representation. Mathematical models of large-scale systems often use a combination of approaches -- inserting tested equations where the relationships are well known and inserting statistical relationships where there is less certainty. Such models can also use probabilistic relationships for events that are random or exhibit some type of variable pattern. For example, models of weather analyze the long-term weather records for the area under consideration and calculate the frequency of different weather incidents. These are represented as their probability of occurrence, assuming that the past is a strong indication of future events. In Ohio, for example, there is a high probability of many small rainstorms because they occur frequently. There is a much lower probability of extreme events that produce a large amount of rainfall in a short time -- high winds, high snowfalls, etc. These can be incorporated into mathematical models by applying probability distributions in the model and using a random number generator to choose events based on that distribution. Similar rate based distributions are used in population dynamics models relating to birth and death rates, in the modeling of disease (epidemiology) based on risk factors, for earthquake risks, and for many kinds of accident modeling.

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Simulation Models Simulation models are a special subset of mathematical or physical models that allow the user to ask "what if" questions about the system. Changes are made in the physical conditions or their mathematical representation and the model is run many times to "simulate" the impacts of the changes in the conditions.

1. Stati 2. Dete Dynam Chaotic

Observed Interest Rate Noise

Noise Seed

Average Interest Rate

3. Disc models 3. Disc Discret models only at a


Principal Interest Sim Interest Simulated Principal Estimated Interest Rate

Averaging time 0 Average Principal 0

Simulated Principal 1 0 Sim Interest 1 0 Observed Interest Rate 0

<TIME STEP> <Time>

<Average Interest Rate>

3. Disc models
Averaging time Average Principal Sim Interest 1 Simulated Principal 1 Observed Interest Rate <TIME STEP> <Time> <Noise> <Average Interest Rate>

Discrete

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