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Aneks A se vezuje za pitanje Socio-ekonomski kontekst analize i za Studiju izvodljivosti (opravdanosti)

ANNEX A DEMAND ANALYSIS


Demand forecasting is an important step in the feasibility study of a project, as it allows us to assess how much of a good or a service will be requested in the future, as well as the revenues that can be expected from the sale of that good or service.

Demand techniques

forecasting

Several techniques can be used for demand forecasting, depending on the data available, the resources that can be dedicated to the estimates, and the sector involved.

Interviewing experts misljenja eksperata

Kvalitativna

metoda

prikupljanja

Whenever, for budget or time reasons, a quantitative methodology for demand forecasting cannot be applied, interviewing experts can provide independent external estimations of the expected impact of a project. The advantages of this approach are low cost and speed. Of course, this kind of estimation can be only qualitative or, if quantitative, very approximate. Indeed, this approach can be recommended only for a very preliminary stage of the forecasting procedure.

Trend extrapolation
Extrapolation of past trends involves fitting a trend to data points from the past, usually with regression analysis.

Multiple models

regression

In the regression technique, forecasts are made on the basis of a linear relationship estimated between the forecast (or dependent) variable and the explanatory (or independent) variables.

Aneks B se vezuje za finansijsku i ekonomsku analizu, kada je potrebno odrediti odgovarajucu diskontnu stopu.

ANNEX B THE CHOICE OF THE DISCOUNT RATE


The financial discount rate Tri pristupa odredjivanja ove stope:
the first one estimates the actual (weighted average) cost of capital. The benchmark for a public project may be the real return on Government bonds (the marginal direct cost of public funds), or the long-term real interest rate on

commercial loans (if the project needs private finance), or a weighted average of the two rates. - the second approach establishes a maximum limit value for the discount rate as it considers the return lost from the best investment alternative. (prinos koji se moze ostvariti na najbolji portfolio); - poci od odredjene diskontne stope i korigovati je iskustvenim multiplikatorom It should be noted that as long as the FDR is taken as a real discount rate, the analysis should be carried out at constant prices. If current prices are used throughout the financial analysis, a nominal discount rate (which includes inflation) must be employed.

The social discount rate


The main theoretical approaches are the following: a traditional view proposes that marginal public investment should have the same return as the private one, as public projects can displace private projects; (javni projekti kao zamena privatnim) - another approach is to derive the social discount rate from the predicted long-term growth in the economy, as further explained below in the social time preference approach; - Dominantan metod - a third, more recent approach, involves decreasing marginal discount rates over time and is designed to give more weight to project impacts on future generations. (degresivna diskontna stopa) Still, consensus is growing around the social time preference rate (STPR) (drustvena stopa vremenske preferencije) approach. This approach is based on the long term rate of growth in the economy and considers the preference for benefits over time, taking into account the expectation of increased income, or consumption, or public expenditure. An approximate and generally used formula for estimating the social discount rate from the growth rate can be expressed as follows:

r = eg +p
where r is the real social discount rate of public funds; g is the growth rate of public expenditure; e is the elasticity of marginal social welfare with respect to public expenditure, and p is a rate of pure time preference. The EC, DG Regio, has suggested a 5.5% SDR for the Cohesion countries and 3.5% for the others. For our practical purposes, it may be useful to reinterpret the STRP formula in terms of consumption. Let us suppose g is the growth rate of consumption, e is the elasticity of marginal utility with respect to consumption, and p is the inter-temporal preference rate. The first component of the STPR formula is a utilitarian preference; the second one (p) is a pure time preference. The pure inter-temporal preference reflects consumers impatience (psiholoski uslovljena preferencija, nestrpljivost u potrosnji; vise se vrednuje sadasnja naspram buduce potrosnje). The utilitarian part measures the utility reduction of a marginal Euro caused by increases in real income. This means that in a developing economy where future consumption will be plentiful compared to the present level, individuals will require more compensation for postponing consumption. The social rate of time preference represents, in fact, the minimum return that individuals demand for giving up some of their current consumption in exchange for additional consumption in the future. All the values in the formula are country specific, especially those of consumption growth

(g) that depend directly on GDP. Social and individual preferences affect the marginal utility parameter (e); life expectancy and other individual characteristics influence the time preference parameter (p). Estimation of the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption, e : Meru elasticnosti marginalne korisnosti moze da predstavlja stepen progresivnosti poreza na dohodak. Sto je veci stepen progresivnosti poreza, veca je elasticnost i odatle veca drustvena diskontna stopa.
The formula is the following: e = Log(1-t) / Log(1-T/Y) where t is the marginal rate of income tax; T is the total income tax liability and Y the total taxable income.

ANNEX C PROJECT PERFORMANCE INDICATORS


This annex explains how to calculate and use the main project performance indicators for CBA analysis: Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and the BenefitCost Ratio (B/C).

The Net Present Value


NPV is a very simple and precise performance indicator. A positive NPV, NPV>0, means that the project generates a net benefit and it is generally desirable either in financial terms or in economic terms. When different options are considered, the ranking of the NPVs of the alternatives indicates the best one.

The Internal Rate of Return


The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is defined as the discount rate that zeroes out the net present value of flows of costs and benefits of an investment, that is to say the discount rate of the equation below:

NPV (S) = [St / (1+ IRRt)] = 0


The Internal Rate of Return is an indicator of the relative efficiency of an investment, and should be used with caution. The relationship between NPV and IRR is shown in the graph below.

Figure C.3 The internal rate of return Figure Multiple IRRs NPV NPV

C.4

IRR i IRR IRR IRR i

NEDOSTACI INTERNE STOPE PRINOSA 1. If the sign of the net benefits, benefits minus costs, changes in the different years of the projects lifespan (for example - + - + -) there may be multiple IRRs for a single project. In these cases the IRR decision rule is impossible to implement.

2. The IRR contains no useful information about the overall economic value of a
project. This can be illustrated by graphing the NPV as a function of the discount rate (r). Consider Figure C.5 that displays the NPV schedule for two alternative projects. Project A has a substantially higher NPV for any discount rate in the economically relevant range (i.e. for any r less than 30%), yet it crosses the axis to the left of project B, and consequently has a lower IRRi.e. IRRA = 40% < IRRB = 70%.

Figure C.5 IRR and NPV of two mutually exclusive alternatives

Source: (2007).

Ley

Since welfare depends on NPV, not IRR, it is apparent that project A dominates B. For instance NPVA(r) exceeds NPVB(r) by about US$ 1.6 million for a discount rate in the neighbourhood of 10% 3. the sensitivity to economic life: when projects with different economic lives are to be compared, the IRR approach inflates the deliverability of a short-life project niza IRR se dodeljuje kracem projektu 4. Osetljivost na vremenski raspored rezultata: projekti koji u pocetku ne obezbedjuju u duzem vremenskom periodu pozitivne neto novcane tokove i onda pred kraj pocnu da ih stvaraju, imace nizu IRR od projekata kod kojih je raspored neto novcanih tokova ravnomerniji 5. the IRR indicator cannot deal with cases in which time-varying discount rates are used. In these cases, the Net Present Value rule allows discount rate changes to be incorporated easily into the calculation. One advantage of the IRR (under reasonable assumptions) is that it is a pure number and this makes it easier to compare projects that are similar, apart from their size.

Benefit-cost ratio (B/C)


The benefit-cost ratio is the present value of project benefits divided by the present value of project costs:

B/C = PV (I)/PV (O)


where I are the inflows and O the outflows. If B/C >1 the project is suitable Like the IRR, this ratio is independent of the size of the investment, but in contrast to IRR it does not generate ambiguous cases and for this reason it can complement the NPV in ranking projects where budget constraints apply. The main problems with this indicator are: it is sensitive to the classification of the project effects as benefits rather than costs. It is relatively common to have project effects that can be treated both as benefits and as cost reductions and vice versa. Since the Benefit- Cost ratio rewards projects with low costs, considering a positive effect as a cost-reduction rather than a benefit would only result in an artificial improvement of the indicator; Da li npr. ustede u troskovima da klasifikujemo kao povecanje koristi ili kao manjenje troskova? B/C vise vrednuje projekte sa manjim troskovima, tako da nije svejedno kako klasifikujemo efekte. - it is not appropriate for mutually exclusive projects. -

ANNEX D THE PROJECTS IMPACT ON EMPLOYMENT AND THE OPPORTUNITY COST OF LABOUR
Different types of unemployment imply different formulas for estimating shadow wage

rates (SWR).

Competitive markets

labour

Even under full employment and in competitive labour markets, shadow wages may differ from market wages because of the social cost of displacing workers from one activity to another. These costs also lead to frictional unemployment (3%). The labour market functions relatively well and only small corrections are necessary due to project-specific transport, training, relocation and other costs not captured by the wage.

Markets with informal activities


Obracunska zarada se utvrdjuje na osnovu gubitaka output-a, koji inace nastaju u neformalnom sektoru, pri premestanju radnika u formalni sektor. The lost annual output m of hiring a new employee A conversion factor c Additional costs of transferring workers (training, relocation, etc.) z are subjected to conversion factor d, A very simple formula is:

SWR = mc + zd

Markets with nezaposlenost

involuntary

unemployment

Nezeljena

The shadow wage here will be usually higher or at least equivalent to the reservation wage. Rezervaciona zarada predstavlja naknadu za nezaposlene. A simple formula for the shadow wage is:

SWR = n(u/L) + zd
Where L is the project labour input, u the decrease in unemployment (number of units), n is the reservation wage and z is again the relocation costs. The link between the informal sector and involuntary unemployment. With a correction to the former c we obtain the following formula that merges the two situations.

SWR = n(u/L) + m(e/L) + zd


m is the opportunity cost of output forgone (measured by the wage) in the prior activity, e the decrease in employment. c becomes (e/L) which is a weight for the loss of employment in displaced activities. Further correction d can be added for relocation costs z. Where detailed statistical information on the local labour market is not available, unemployment is sizeable, and unemployment benefits are not available or extremely low, a shortcut formula can be used to determine the conversion factor for the labour cost:

SWR = W(1-u)(1-t)
where W is the market wage, u is the regional unemployment rate, t is the rate of social security payments and relevant taxes. The conversion factor here is (1-u)(1-t).

ANNEX F EVALUATION OF HEALTH &

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS METODI SU ISPITNA PITANJA!!!


TOTAL ECONOMIC VALUE
The monetary measure of a change in an individuals well being due to a change in environmental quality is called the total economic value of the change. The total economic value of a resource can be divided into use values and non-use values: Total economic value = use values + non-use values. Use values include benefits from the physical use of environmental resources, such as a recreational activity (sport fishing) or productive activities (agriculture and forestry). In this context uncertainty stems from a combination of the individuals uncertainty about future demand for the resource and uncertainty about its future availability. Non-use values refer to the benefits individuals may obtain from environmental resources without directly using them. For example, many people value tropical ecological systems without directly consuming or visiting them. The components of non-use values are existence value and bequest value. Existence value measures willingness-to-pay for a resource for some moral, altruistic or other reason and is unrelated to current or future uses. Bequest value is the value that the current generation obtains from preserving the environment for future generations.

When environmental service markets are available, the easiest way to measure economic value is to use the actual related market price. For example, when marine pollution reduces fish catches, market values for the lost harvest are easily observed in the fish market. When there is no market, the price can be derived through non-market evaluation procedures. The starting point of the evaluation, as for all costs and benefits, is looking at the individual preferences. A benefit is measured by the individual willingness-to-pay to secure it, and a cost is measured by the willingness to accept a compensation for the loss. Three main methodologies can be applied for estimating the monetary value of changes in non-market goods: - Revealed Preference Methods Metod otkrivenih preferencija - Stated Preference Methods Metod utvrdjenih preferencija - Benefit Transfer Method Metod transfera koristi

1. Metod otkrivenih preferencija (ispoljeno ponasanje)


This approach implies that the valuation of non-market impacts is based on the observation of the actual behaviour and, especially, on the purchases made in actual markets. Consequently, the focus is on real choices and implied willingness-to-pay. The strength of these approaches is that they are based on actual decisions made by individuals. The main methods are: specific

hedonic pricing method travel cost method averting or behaviour method cost of illness method

defensive

Metod hedonistickog utvrdjivanja cena The starting point is the fact that the prices of many market goods are functions of a bundle of characteristics. It is possible to describe any house e.g. by the number of rooms, location, structure, age, etc.

The Hedonic pricing method should identify the contribution of each significant determinant of house prices in order to estimate the marginal willingness-to-pay for each characteristic. Hedonic studies of the property market have been used to identify the value of nonmarket goods such as traffic noise, aircraft noise, air pollution, water quality and proximity to landfill sites. A house near an airport, for example, will be purchased at a lower price than a house located in a quiet area. The difference in values can be viewed as the value attached to noise. Metod transportnih troskova The travel cost approach seeks to put a value on the individuals willingness-to-pay for an environmental good or service, like for instance a nature park or an archaeological area, by the costs incurred to consume it. (spremnost da se podnesu transportni troskovi) The value of the nature park or archaeological area can be measured with reference to values expressed in the markets for trips to those areas. For zones located far from the nature park the number of visits is zero because the cost of the trip exceeds the benefit derived from the trip. Specific problems with this approach are related to multiple purpose trips; because many trips have more than one destination, it is difficult to identify which part of the total travel cost is related to one specific destination. Since only the benefits of the direct consumption of the environmental services are considered in this approach, non-use values (option value and existence value) cannot be considered. Metod odvracanja/odbrambenog ponasanja The main assumption is that individuals can insulate themselves from a non-market bad by adopting more costly behaviours to avoid it. The way to avoid exposure to specific non-market goods is the purchase of a market-good to defend the consumer from the bad. The value of each of these purchases can be considered the implicit price for the non-market good that individuals want to avoid. An example could be the installation of double-glazed windows to decrease exposure to road traffic noise. Double- glazing is a market good that can be seen as a substitute for a non-market good (absence of road traffic noise) and so the cost of purchasing it can be considered as the price of the non-market good. Specific problems with these approaches could be: - many averting behaviours or defensive expenditures are related to joint products (e.g. heating and insulation from noise) pa se ucinjeni troskovi se ne mogu precizno alocirati Metod troskova lecenja Like the defensive expenditures method, this one focuses on expenditures on medical services and products made in response to the health effects of non-market impacts. The difference between the two methods is that usually the decision concerning health care expenditure is not made by individuals alone, but involves social administrators, politicians and taxpayers.

2. Metod utvrdjenih preferencija


Stated preference approaches are survey-based and elicit peoples intended future behaviour in the markets. Through an appropriately designed questionnaire, a hypothetical market is described where the good in question can be traded. A random sample of people is then asked to express their maximum willingness-to-pay for (or willingness to accept) a supposed change in the goods provision level.

The

main

specific

methods are: contingent valuation method choice modelling method. Metod kontigentnog vrednovanja Ovo je kako ja shvatam metod Istrazuju se stavovi ispitanika o nekom dobru (kako bi se otkrili najvazniji faktori koji uticu na stavove). U sledecoj fazi se ispitanicima nudi to dobro pod razlicitim uslovima (razliciti scenariji) kako bi se otkrila njihova spremnost da plate (odnosno vrednost) to dobro pod tim posebnim uslovima. A evo i tog dela na engl: investigating the attitudes and behaviour related to the goods to be valued in preparation for answering the valuation question and in order to reveal the most important underlying factors driving respondents attitude towards the public good; - presenting respondents with a contingent scenario providing for a description of the commodity and the terms under which it is to be hypothetically offered. The final questions should aim to determine how much they would value the good if confronted with the opportunity to obtain it under the specified terms and conditions; - asking questions about the socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the respondents in order to check the extent to which the survey sample is representative of the population involved. Metod modeliranja izbora Respondents have various alternative descriptions of a good, differentiated by their attributes and levels, and are requested to rank the alternatives, to rate them or to choose their preferred option.

3. Metod transfera koristi


Koriste se ranije procenjene vrednosti jedinica netrzisnih dobara, koje se koriguju ili ne koriguju, i primenjuju se na drugom mestu (npr. procena u jednoj zemlji se moze primeniti u drugoj zemlji) This method consists of taking a unit value for a non-market good estimated in an original study and using this estimate, after some adjustments, to value benefits (or costs) that arise when a policy or project is implemented elsewhere. The interest shown in this approach is due to the opportunity to reduce the need for costly and timeconsuming original studies of non-market goods values. Clearly, the main obstacle in using this approach is that Benefit Transfer can give rise to seriously biased estimates. Nekriticka primena rezultata