European tourism, transport and environmental impacts

OECD Workshop on

LEISURE TRAVEL, TOURISM TRAVEL, AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Berlin, October 4-5, 2004 Paul Peeters

2004 NHTV Centre for Sustainable Tourism and Transport, Breda, The Netherlands

Contents of the presentation

Methods and MuSTT model

European tourism

European tourism transport

Environmental impacts of tourism transport

Some trends and mechanisms

Conclusions
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The MuSTT project

The MuSTT project (Multi-stakeholder European Targeted Action for Sustainable Tourism & Transport) has been initiated by DG Enterprise. Consortium: PriceWaterhouseCoopers, NEA, DTV Consultancy, IWW and NHTV/CSTT

Project objective: uncoupling growth of tourism and of transport encourage innovative practices to enhance sustainable development
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Methods (1): definitions

Tourism: all trips more than one night, but less than one year for leisure and holiday, business and visits to friends and relatives.

EU15: member states before June of 2004.

EU10: new member states since June 2004.

EU25: EU15 plus EU10.

EU-plus: EU25 plus Bulgaria, Romania, Norway, Switzerland.

ICA: intercontinental tourism.

Domestic tourism: tourists staying within their own country.

OD-Transport: between normal residence and destination.

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Local transport: transport at destinations.

Methods (2): The MuSTT model

MuSTT model created from WTO data and TEN-STAC:

Number of international tourists from WTO;

Modakl split from TEN-STAC;

Empty cells WTO data filled with TEN-STAC data;

Canary Islands added from share given by TEN-STAC;

Malta and Cyprus from WTO data assuming 100% air transport;

Average OD-travel distances from TEN-STAC;

Coach and ferries estimated from Eurostat data and taken from the ROAD transport mode of TEN-STAC.
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EU Tourism (1): purpose of visit per destination

East Mediterranean Europe Southern Europe

Central/Eastern Europe Western Europe Northern Europe Europe 0% 20% 40% 60% Visting friends/relatives 80% 100% Business
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Leisure/holidays

Source: WTO, 2003; figures for 2001

EU tourism (2): main flows

Source: WTO, 2003; figures for 2001

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Tourism transport (1): modal split

Modal split (pkm) all intra-EU15 transport

1%
2% 31%

Modal split (pkm) tourism intra-EU15 transport

8%

7%

8%

55% 5% 7%

Car Coach Rail Air Ferry 76%

Car Coach Rail Air Ferry

Source: Eurostat (left) and MuSTT model (right); figures for 2001

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Tourism Transport (2): tourism shares per mode

Tourism share per transport mode

100%

80%

60%

40%

20% Car Rail Air Coach/bus Ferries Total Tourism Other

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Source: WTO, 2003; figures for 2001

Share of tourism transport (%)

0%

Environment (1): emissions factors

120

100

80

60

40

Air (SH) Air (LH) Rail Car Ferries Coach

Relative emissions (score/pkm)

20

0 CO2 CO2-e PM NOx

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Source: MuSTT model; figures for 2001

Environment (2): external cost intra EU-plus tourism OD-transport

60

50

40

30

20

Accidents Nature/landscape Climate change Air pollution Noise

External costs (billion )

10

0 Coach Rail Air (CO2) Air (GHG)

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Car

Source: IWW/INFRAS plus MuSTT model; figures for 2001

Environment (3): noise

However: Long distance tourism rail/road transport relatively more through countryside: less people less nuisance.

Noise total external cost for tourism transport

25%

5% 68%

2%

Rail/road noise dominated by Car other purposes and freight. Coach Rail Noise is logarithmic: halving Air volume is just perceptible.

Source: IWW/INFRAS plus MuSTT model; figures for 2001

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From trips to impact: per market

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EU Tourism trips

EU25 citizens departures (number of trips)

6% Domestic EU15 EU10 58% Other Europe ICA

8%

1%

27%

Total: 932 million

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Source: MuSTT model; figures for 2001

EU Tourism transport

EU25 citizens departures (number of pkm)

Domestic 29% EU15 EU10 Other Europe ICA 36%

24%

9%

2%

Total: 1739 billion pkm

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Source: MuSTT model; figures for 2001

EU Tourism CO2-e emissions

EU25 citizens departures (CO2-e emissions)

16% Domestic EU15 EU10 Other Europe 37% 1% ICA

32%

14%

Total: 398 million ton

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Source: MuSTT model; figures for 2001

EU Tourism transport NOx emissions

EU25 citizens departures (NOx emissions)

Domestic 29% EU15 EU10 Other Europe ICA 37%

23%

9%

2%

Total: 858 million kg

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Source: MuSTT model; figures for 2001

EU Tourism transport PM emissions

3% EU25 citizens departures (PM emissions) 1% Domestic EU15 EU10 57% Other Europe ICA

2%

37%

Total: 16.7 million kg

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Source: MuSTT model; figures for 2001

From trips to impacts: per transport mode

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EU Tourism trips

EU25 citizens departures (number of trips)

Car Coach

27%

Ferry 59% Air

Rail

5%

2%

7%

Total: 932 million

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Source: MuSTT model; figures for 2001

EU Tourism transport

EU25 citizens departures (number of pkm)

Car 37% Ferry Rail Coach

55% Air 4% 1% 3%
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Total: 1739 billion pkm

Source: MuSTT model; figures for 2001

EU Tourism CO2-e emissions

EU25 citizens departures (CO2-e emissions)

23% 0% 0% 0% Ferry Rail Car Coach

Air

77%

Total: 398 million ton

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Source: MuSTT model; figures for 2001

EU Tourism transport NOx emissions

EU25 citizens departures (NOx emissions)

Car 37% Ferry Rail Coach

56% Air 2% 4% 1%
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Total: 858 million kg

Source: MuSTT model; figures for 2001

EU Tourism transport PM emissions

EU25 citizens departures (PM emissions)

6% Car Coach

4%

0%

5%

Ferry

Rail

Air 85%

Total: 16.7 million kg

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Source: MuSTT model; figures for 2001

Longer distances in 2020

Growth factor trips [2000=1.0]

4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 1000 2000 3000 4000

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Return distance [km]

Growth of pkm Intra EU-plus tourism (2000=1.0)

2 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 International Total

Car Air Other

Domestic

Source: MuSTT model.

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Growth of trips, pkm and CO2-e for Intra EU-plus tourism (2000=1.0)

1,8

1,6

1,4

1,2

0,8

0,6

Trips PKM CO2-e CO2-e (incl Tech)

0,4

0,2 International Total

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Domestic

Source: MuSTT model.

Some remarks on tourism trends and mechanisms

Tourism sector world-wide depends economically on individual leisure time budget and spending per night; not on OD-transport distance.

Impacts of war, terrorism and infectious diseases are generally temporary (Martin Mowford).

Increased availability of cheap high speed (air) transport is main driver behind tourism transport growth.

Current tourism trends - more frequent, more by air and further away - cause stronger growth of environmental impacts, even stronger than the economic growth of the sector.
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Emerging trends due to development of low cost carriers

>30% of all air European transport in 2010 by LCCs

LCCs competing in two ways: directly taking away passengers from coach and (high speed) rail and taking passengers over much larger distances for shorter and more frequent breaks (even one-day returns). This means 10-20 times the environmental impact per trip day.

Second homes are purchased at longer distances (low cost carrier homes) near LCC destinations.

Direct and indirect impacts on employment/economy both positive and negative.

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Conlusions (1): tourism and transport

Domestic tourism has largest share (59%) of in number of trips by EU-25 tourists; intercontinental only 6%.

The main tourism flows are directed north-south within Europe, main destinations being France, Spain and Italy.

Domestic tourism is car oriented, while international tourism is air oriented; rail, coach and ferry have small shares.

Tourism share of all passenger transport is about 17% of total, except for air with >80% and ferry with 60%.

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Conclusions (2): environmental impacts

Domestic tourism is relatively sustainable; ICA is unsustainable; intra EU25 comes in between.

Tourism energy consumption and impact on climate change is dominated by air transport.

Air quality is dominated by (diesel!) car transport.

Tourism transport safety cost is dominated by car use.

Tourism noise nuisance is dominated by car and air transport.

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