Shiftsinspeciesabundanceofsardine fisheriesinsouthernPhilippines:early signsofvulnerabilitytoclimate change?

Asuncion de Guzman, Cesaria Jimenez, Angelo Macario, Juliet Madula and Jayrald Santamina
Mindanao State University-Naawan Philippines
Sendai, Japan 2010

Background:theICECREAMProgram
3yearcollaborativeclimate researchprogramfundedby thePhilippinegovernment Utilizespressurestate responseframeworkto analyzeCCdriversand proposeinterventions 8projectcomponents; 6researchinstitutions
Sendai, Japan 2010

Background: Coastalclimateregimesof
thePhilipines
10coastalclimate typologiesbasedon rainfalldata Coastsaround Mindanaoisland classifiedinto4climate types~highlyvariable
David, et al. unpub.

VulnerabilityofPhilippinecoasts
Marinebiogeographical basinsofPhilippines integratedwithcoastal climateregimes Differentialvulnerabilityto NE&SWmonsoonsand tropicalstorms ICECREAMprojectsites acrossPhil.Archipelago Weather/CTDstationsinat least6locations

AsiasStormiest
19of39TSduring Pacifictyphoon seasonhitthe Philippinesin2009

Source: Wikimedia Commons, 2009

SSTalongeasternPhil.seaboard

Calagua

Surigao

Bothsitesshowanoverallincreaseof 0.5Cfrom1982to2007
Source: PacSEA project (2007)

Project6:CoastalFisheries
Componentlooksinto potentialeffectofCCon productionvariabilityof importantfishresources Drivers:ClimateorFishing? Humanenvironment synergy:impactson fisheriesandmarginal livelihoods

Pauly et al., 1998

CLIMATE CHANGE FACTORS Increasing SST Increased storminess Sea level rise Increased precipitation

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON FISHERIES Decreased catch Decreasing quality/value of catch Lower fisher Income Increasing poverty

Sardineasclimateproxy
IndianoilsardineSardinella longiceps formsalargepartof smallpelagics productionof nearshore fisheries Sardineisassociatedwithhigh productivityareas;upwelling zones Canbeaproxytochanging climate impactsonspawning &recruitment

Sardinella longiceps

Methodology
Monitoringoflanded catchintwobaysalong theEastWestgradient (MindanaoIs.) DataavailableonMay 2009March2010 Comparisonbetween upwelling and watersheddriven productivity

Very high Chl & PP (river driven)

ea aoS n inda M

Major upwelling zone (NE monsoon)

Methodology
Fish landing surveys Monitoring of catch and effort of major gears Monthly length-frequency measurements (future popdyn parameters) Sex ratios, gonadal maturity determination
Commercial bagnets in Sindangan Bay Artisanal fishing boats in Butuan Bay

PreliminaryResults:Sardineproductionin Sindangan Bay

LandedcatchofIndianoil sardineSardinella longiceps =625t Represents22%oftotal landedcatchof2,856t Therainbowsardine, Dussumiera elopsoides, mixesinverysmall proportions Abundantjuvenilesin Dec/Jan
800.00 E s tim ated L an d ed C atc h (to n s ) 700.00 600.00 500.00 400.00 300.00 200.00 100.00 0.00 Ma y J une J uly Aug S e p Oc t Nov De c J a n F e b Ma r 2009 2010

Monthlyproduc tionofmajorfis hs pec ies inS indang anB ay

O therS pec ies S kipjac ktuna B ullettuna P ugnos eponyfis h R edtailrounds c ad S lenderrainbows ardine Indianoils ardine

PreliminaryResults:Sardineproduction inButuan Bay

S.longiceps (1,732t) dominateslandedcatch (1,881t)fromButuan Bayinsameperiod 2000assessment: dominantspecieswasS. melanura presently caughtinsmallamounts Spawning:DecFeb

Shiftsinabundance:climaterelated?
Apparentasynchronyin abundanceofsardinein twobays Hypothesis:
Seasonalrecruitment oscillations(upwelling drivenvs chl ornutrient variability)
Upwellingdriven

river-driven / chl

Fisherperception:delayed appearanceofjuvenilesin SBthaninpastyears

Shiftsinabundance:Otherpotential drivers
Migration
Linear shifts (inshoreoffshore; shallow-deep; bay-to-bay gradients)

Overfishing
Increase in demand for fresh sardine to supply post-H facilities in Sindangan Bay Consequential in fishing effort

Growthofsardinepostharvestindustryin Sindangan Bay

Highannualproduction motivatedrapidgrowthof postharvestindustry 20sardinebottling companies(small,family ownedenterprises) Lowsardinecatchesoffset byexportingsardinefrom otherareas(large operationalcosts)

90,000 80,000 Production (Boxes) 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

80 70 Value (Ph pesos) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Production volume (boxes)

Domestic sales (Php millions)

Generalizations
Morequestionsthananswers Tropical,smallscalefisheries arehighbiodiversitysystems Vulnerabletooverfishing Experiencingfishingdown theweb phenomenon NeedforadaptiveFMto ensurefoodsecurity& income

ICECREAMs goalandchallenges
ICECREAMisanewborn inclimate research Goal:tocontributetoCCandFisheries scienceindatapoorsystems(withnolong termtimeseriesdata) Challenge:attributionofchangesor variabilityinfisheriessystemstoClimate disentangledfromoverfishingandother driversofstockchanges

NextSteps
BackwardandforwardtimeseriesC/Edata Linkfisheriesproductionpatternswith ocean/climatedatafrom(ICComponent2) NeedtodisentangleCCandfisherieseffects Studyspawning/recruitmentpatternsand possiblecorrelationswithSST,salinity,etc

Man must eatbut fish has to live, too!

Thankyouforyour attention!

Acknowledgments of Funding Assistance Sponsors:

NorthPacificMarineScience Organization InternationalCouncilfortheExploration oftheSea FoodandAgricultureOrganization FisheriesResearchAgencyofJapan TheICECREAMprogramof DepartmentofScience&Tech.(DOST)