Earthquake forecasting and probabilistic seismic hazard assessment through a smoothing Kernel and the rate-and-state friction law:

Application to the Taiwan region

Chung-Han Chan Yih-Min Wu
Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University, Taiwan

Chin-Tung Cheng
Overview

Po-Shen Lin

Geotechnical Engineering Research Center, Sinotech Engineering Consultants, Inc., Taiwan

Similar seismicity patterns during different periods in the Taiwan region

Declustered events during 1940-2005
M5 events

Non-declustered events during 2006-2010

Hualien city Crustal eq. Interface eq Intraslab eq. Declustered eq.
pla te

Intrasla

b regio

A smoothing Kernel function and the rate-and-state model are employed for forecasting the spatio-temporal distribution of the seismicity density in Taiwan. Through using an integration of these two approaches, the application was found to be capable of providing a seismicity forecast with a high accuracy. The proposed methodology, with verified applicability for rate estimation, could provide a suitable basis for application in short-term propobilistic seismic hazard assessments.
Good correlation between background seismicity rate and consequent events
Japan

10

Seismic hazard for the 2.1 probability (in g)

Twice of seismic hazard is expected after eq. 6

Seismic hazard 1 day a evaluated by backgr fter th ( ound e th rate e e + s q. 6 eis .r und seismi ate ackgro c haz B ch luated by backgro ard an (eva und ge rate ) on ly)

Acceleration response spectra in Hualien city

Interfa

ce regi

on

Two examples show that consequent earthquakes took placed in thet rate increase regions
After eq. 4
30 km

30 km

Longitudinal Valley Fault (plate boundary)

Eq. 6 R
Phil

y uk

ippi

ne S

yu T ren ch

China

Area for calculation

Seis. rate change at different time points

Eu ras ian

After eq. 6

ea p

late

Philippine

0.1

eg terface r In

regi ntraslab I

8c m /y r.

Ground motion prediction equations: For crust events: Lin and Lee [BSSA, 2008] For subduction events: Dissertation of P.-S. Lin [NCU, 2009] Soil amplification (site effect) is considered

ion

Eq. 4

on

Catalog is acquired by the Central Weather Bureau Seismic Network (CWBSN). Catalog is declustered according to the method by Burkhard and Grnthal [2009].

Eq. 1

Eq. 6

0.01 0.01

0.1

Respond period (s)

Eq. 2

Fraction of failure to predict

100%

Combination of the two models has a better forecasting ability

Negative correlation

Eq. 5
Hualien city Events during 2006-2010

Earthquake 4: Dec. 26, 2006 Eq. 4

Events after eq. 4

Earthquake 6: Jul. 23, 2007 ML5.8

Events after eq. 6

Seismic hazard for the 2.1 probability (PGA in g)

1

Rise of seismic hazard after earthquake 6, Back to the background level within 2 years

ML7.0
Seisimicity rate changes by the events during 2006-2010
-10% -5% -1% -0.5% -0.1% 0.0 +0.1% +0.5% +1% +5% +10%

Eq.6 ML5.8

80%

Estimated seismicity density rate for M5.0 (x10-6/yr/km2)

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0

0.9

Molchan diagram
Smoothing Kernel only

Evolution of seismic hazard in Hualien during 2006-2010

60%

No

co

Smoothing Kernel + rate/state friction law

rre

Background seismicity rate is evaluated by a smoothing Kernel in the neighboring region of the declustered earthquakes during 1940-2005. Higher seismicity rates along the east coast and southwestern Taiwan.

According to the rate-and-state friction model, the Coulomb stress change imparted by each earthquake results in seismicity rate change. Slip dislocation model of each event is acquired by the scaling law by Yen and Ma [BSSA, 2011]. For Coulomb stress change calculation, spatial variable receiver fault and maximum stress change among seismogenic layer (proposed by Catalli & Chan [accepted by GJI]) are considered.

0.8

40%

lat

ion

0.7

0.6
20%

Positive correlation
0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Distribution of seismicity during 2006-2010 compare with different forecast models through the Molchan diagram. The smoothing Kernel shows a good forecasting ability. A better forecasting ability is obtained when the rate/state law are further integrated.
Fraction of space occupied by alarm

Significant seismic hazard increases are evaluated when earthquakes take place in vicinity, even through with small magnitudes. According to the rate-and-state friction model, larger and longer hazard perturbations are expected when large earthquakes occur.

0.5

Eq.4 ML7.0

0.4

2006

2006.5

2007

2007.5

2008

2008.5

2009

2009.5

2010

2010.5

2011

Contact: cchan@ntu.edu.tw

Time (year)