Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Indraneel Bhowmik
Holy Cross College, Agartala, 29th October, 2011
The Discourse
Introduction Objectives & Structural Framework The Global Rubber Economy Rubber in Tripura Economics of the Rubber Farm Linkages Concluding Remarks
The Issue
Hevea brasiliensis 93 % production far away from home Vital ingredient of modern life Use positively correlated to development & automation Highly traded in the international market Globalisation- 1990s Uruguay Round of gatt- 1988 Wto- 1995 Free flow of goods & services Tripura Non traditional area Different from the Kerala model Multi-level impacts
Globalisation
.integration of economies and societies through cross country flows of information, ideas, technologies, goods, services, capital, finance and people.. Several Facets- cultural, social, political, economic & environmental Economic globalisationa] export & import of goods and services, b] flow of capital, c] transfer of technology & d] movement/ migration of people
Objective Explore the Impact of Globalisation in Tripuras Rubber Sector Analyse the effect of the Price Movement Structure Section I- Introduction Section II- The Global Rubber Economy Section III- Rubber in Tripura Section IV- Economics of the Rubber Farm Section V- Concluding Remarks Methodology Secondary Data Growth Rates
Constituent for almost 50000 articles Commercialisation since late 19th century- Colonies of exploitation Specific geo-physical need for production-Supply-prerogative for some selected countries Synthetic Rubber (SR)Petrochemical feed-stocks WW II Developed Nations
Proportional Distribution Years 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 NR 32 30 33 35 38 41 42 44 SR 68 70 67 65 62 59 58 56
Resurgence of NR
SR not a substitute Oil shocks Health Sector innovations Environmental Issues
Chinas emergence
Largest Consumer since 2001 Per capita consumption- 0.83 kg in 1990 5.80 kg in2009
Thailand Largest Producer Indonesia- Largest Area India- Highest Yield Traditional Producers Export of Value Added Products
Only major producer with dominant NR (73%) Per capita consumption- 0.55 kg in 1990 1.05 kg in2009
Average Daily Employment in plantations increased from 280000 in 1990 to 445000 in 2009 Receipts of rubber board increased by more than five-fold since 1993-94 Index of agricultural production for Rubber - 311.5 in 1994-95 570.7 in 2008-09 Index of productivity for the same period increased from 174.8 to 229.0 Index number for wholesale prices of Natural Rubber increased from 118.2 in 2001-02 to 447.6 in 2009-10; second highest after minerals
Kerala s Dominance Growing Share of Non-traditional Areas Tripura- 2nd largest since 2009
Rubber in Tripura
The Development Process Introduced by state Forest Department in 1963; afforestation Confined to the public sector Potential rehabilitation of the jhum cultivators TFDPC formed in 1976-77; 1st rubber based rehabilitation at Warrangbari, Cash Subsidy Scheme, 1980 TRPC in 1983; specific objective of settlement of landless tribal people Tripura Block Plantation Project-1992-93; collaboration between Rubber Board and DTW, GoT with sponsorship from World Bank. Growth of private plantation under Rubber Board initiative High growth in mid 1990s; slowdown after Asian Economic Crisis 1997 Revival of the international NR sector since 2001, renewed interest from private sector Craze after booming prices TRM- 2006 Stakeholders- SCs, STs, petty businesspersons, agriculturists, merchants, traders and state PSUs ; residents and corporate firms from other states or regions of the country. Lacks very big estates; mostly small holdings Turnover of Rubber Sector in Tripura- Rs. 450-500 crores
Year Total Area Tappable Production (ha) Area (ha) (Tonnes) (31/03)
1972-73 1980-81 1990-91 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 103 2746 17320 27164 28375 29737 30575 31754 32561 33661 36213 38346 41165 50070
Yield
11395 11895 11000 14418 17701 14958 13184 16937 19957 N.A 23275
8946 9360 9980 12999 17849 14905 15364 17122 21575* 20299 23280*
785 787 907 902 1008 996 1165 1011 1081 1000
th of Grow 0 ha 900
Total Tappable Output Yield Area Area 1972-73 to 1980-81 41.04 1980-81 to1990-91 18.42 Time Periods 1990-91 to 2000-01 2000-01 to 2008-09 5.41 6.51 9.37 10.59
1.22*
Significant differences (F= 157.15***) qGap consistently more than 40 percent Factors
qAgro-climatic
Average annual growth rate of area highest during 1970s; quite high in 1980s qGrowth rates for tappable area and production higher than total area currently qLower rates in 1990s- problem of free access; Kidnapping & murder of rubber professionals qImproved situation after 2004
q
v v
qDifferences
Farm Economics
Economic Life- 32-35 years; Two distinct phases- immature (6-7 yrs) & mature (25 to 28 yrs). qTwo types of cost- Material Cost & Labour Cost. qThe establishment cost- approx Rs. 120000 / ha; prime share in first year qLabour expenditure- max during the mature phase; Tapping - Rs. 40000/per annum/ ha; Materials & implements- Rs. 15000/- per annum/ ha qReturns- approx Rs159000/- per annum/ha [ Yield- 1000 kgs & av. price Rs. 159/kg in 2010] [Av price of Rubber (2011)- Rs. 208/kg] qBusiness income- Rs. 100000/- per annum/ha during mature stage qSmall farmers- additional Rs 40000/- per annum/ha if owner operator qSupplementary return rubber wood qPay back period- less than 11 years q Favourable BC Ratio & IRR
q
Three ways of marketing 1] Self processing of latex to sheets and sale to dealer 2] Rubber Producer Society by a group of famers- sharing of processing cost 3] Sale of crude latex at the farm gate
Economic Issues
Dp (NR) = f [Wp (NR)], particularly after the economic reforms Small growers exposed to vagaries in the world market Monetary value of NR in Tripura- more than 20 times between 1994-95 and 2010-11
R= 0.977
Ri s
in
n Tre g
Global Financial Meltdown Determinants of Global PriceState of the economy, Global Supply & Demand of NR, Weather, Price of Crude Oil,
Short Run FactorsUnemployment & Stagnation in IW Debt Crisis in Europe Volatility in Crude Oil Prices Political Instability in the Arab World
Linkage- Panorama
Plantations - extremely viable economic opportunity Inclusion of STs in the development process- Asset Base Increased Farm gate Price- Internet Utilisation of degraded forest lands & large number tilla lands Addition to the state GDP Fostering of green cover High rubber prices- additional impetus for growth Rubber goods manufacturing unit- augmented demand Scope of Value-addition: surgical gloves, contraceptives, cycle tyres, footwears, etc Interest from international trading agencies- Fair Trade Investors meet- CII, etc PGDRT- Tripura Universitys
Linkage: Tribulations
q q
Mad Rush- Occupation of reserved forests- Illegal plantation Indiscriminate rubber plantations- normal loss of biodiversity
q q
q q q
q q q
Spurious investors - supply poor quality planting materials Non-certified planting material- adverse affect on productivity, production and profitability Low Yield- low skilled labourer for tapping, poor education and awareness level of the rubber farmer Very low wage incentive for the trained labour Most tappers without formal training Lack of professionalism- trained tappers appoint untrained assistants Workers have no share in additional profit from high price Traces of absentee landlordism- urban owners Limited(???) scope of value addition in the state
Concluding Remarks
Rubber economy of Tripura has more or less satisfied the pre-conditions of take off and its drive to maturity can be assured with favourable policy mix.
ii] strict pursuance of a wage policy with incentives to the trained worker; iii] initiate short-term courses on plantation management; iv] development of Tripura specific rubber cultivar clones; & v] conduct a rubber census to prepare a database for necessary interventions
Boom in the international market of NR- time to reap the fruits but with caution The non-traditional rubber growing zone stands to gain because of land saturation in the traditional areas nature of NR provide a global linkage to Tripura which if well exploited is likely to be the engine of growth, but if not treated with adequate care and restrain then the expected results will boomerang. .........rubber planters of Tripura have to understand the nuances of globalisation
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