Copenhagen Consensus 2008 Results

ThegoalofCopenhagenConsensus2008wastosetprioritiesamongaseriesofproposalsfor confrontingtengreatglobalchallenges. Thesechallengesare:Airpollution,Conflicts,Diseases,Education,GlobalWarming,Malnutrition andHunger,SanitationandWater,SubsidiesandTradeBarriers,Terrorism,Womenand Development. Apanelofeconomicexperts,comprisingeightoftheworldsmostdistinguishedeconomists,was invitedtoconsidertheseissues.Thememberswere: JagdishBhagwati,ColumbiaUniversity; FranoisBourguignon,ParisSchoolofEconomicsandformerWorldBankchiefeconomist; FinnE.Kydland,UniversityofCalifornia,SantaBarbara(Nobellaureate); RobertMundell,ColumbiaUniversityinNewYork(Nobellaureate); DouglassCNorth,WashingtonUniversityinSt.Louis(Nobellaureate); ThomasSchelling,UniversityofMaryland(Nobellaureate); VernonLSmith,ChapmanUniversity(Nobellaureate); NancyStokey,UniversityofChicago. Thepanelwasaskedtoaddressthetenchallengeareasandtoanswerthequestion,Whatwould bethebestwaysofadvancingglobalwelfare,andparticularlythewelfareofthedeveloping countries,illustratedbysupposingthatanadditional$75billionofresourceswereattheirdisposal overafouryearinitialperiod? Tenchallengepapers,commissionedfromacknowledgedauthoritiesineachareaofpolicy,setout morethan30proposalsforthepanelsconsideration.Duringthisweeksconferencethepanel examinedtheseproposalsindetail.Eachpaperwasdiscussedatlengthwithitsprincipalauthor andwithtwootherspecialistswhohadbeencommissionedtowritecriticalappraisals,andthen theexpertsmetinprivatesession.Basedonthecostsandbenefitsofthesolutions,thepanel rankedtheproposals,indescendingorderofdesirability,asfollows:

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 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 SOLUTION Micronutrientsupplementsforchildren(vitaminAandzinc) TheDohadevelopmentagenda Micronutrientfortification(ironandsaltiodization) Expandedimmunizationcoverageforchildren Biofortification Dewormingandothernutritionprogramsatschool Loweringthepriceofschooling Increaseandimprovegirlsschooling Communitybasednutritionpromotion Providesupportforwomensreproductiverole Heartattackacutemanagement Malariapreventionandtreatment Tuberculosiscasefindingandtreatment R&Dinlowcarbonenergytechnologies Biosandfiltersforhouseholdwatertreatment Ruralwatersupply Conditionalcashtransfers Peacekeepinginpostconflictsituations HIVcombinationprevention Totalsanitationcampaign Improvingsurgicalcapacityatdistricthospitallevel Microfinance Improvedstoveintervention Large,multipurposedaminAfrica Inspectionandmaintenanceofdieselvehicles Lowsulfurdieselforurbanroadvehicles Dieselvehicleparticulatecontroltechnology Tobaccotax R&Dandmitigation Mitigationonly CHALLENGE Malnutrition Trade Malnutrition Diseases Malnutrition Malnutrition&Education Education Women Malnutrition Women Diseases Diseases Diseases GlobalWarming Water Water Education Conflicts Diseases Water Diseases Women AirPollution Water AirPollution AirPollution AirPollution Diseases GlobalWarming GlobalWarming

Inorderingtheproposals,thepanelwasguidedpredominantlybyconsiderationofeconomic costsandbenefits.Thepanelacknowledgedthedifficultiesthatcostbenefitanalysismust overcome,bothinprincipleandasapracticalmatter,butagreedthatthecostbenefitapproach wasanindispensableorganizingmethod.Insettingpriorities,thepaneltookaccountofthe strengthsandweaknessesofthespecificcostbenefitappraisalsunderreview,andgaveweight bothtotheinstitutionalpreconditionsforsuccessandtothedemandsofethicalorhumanitarian urgency.Asageneralmatter,thepanelnotedthathigherstandardsofgovernanceand improvementsintheinstitutionsrequiredtosupportdevelopmentintheworldspoorcountries areofparamountimportance.

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Forsomeoftheproposals,thepanelfoundthatinformationwastoosparsetoallowajudgment tobemade.Theseproposals,someofwhichmayproveafterfurtherstudytobevaluable,were thereforeexcludedfromtheranking. Eachexpertassignedhisorherownrankingtotheproposals.Theindividualrankings,together withcommentariespreparedbyeachexpert,willbepublishedinduecourse.(Thechallenge papersandothermaterialhavealreadybeenplacedinthepublicdomain.)Thepanelsranking wascalculatedbytakingthemedianofindividualrankings.Thepaneljointlyendorsesthemedian orderingshownaboveasrepresentingtheiragreedview. NotesabouttheChallenges MalnutritionandHunger Theexpertpanelexaminedthefollowingsolutionstothischallenge:micronutrient supplementation(VitaminAandZinc),micronutrientfortification(ironandsaltiodization), biofortification(agriculturalimprovementsthroughresearchanddevelopment),deworming (whichalsoimproveseducation),andnutritionaleducationcampaigns. Thepanelrankedsolutionstothischallengeveryhighly,becauseoftheexceptionallyhighratioof benefitstocosts.Micronutrientsupplementswerethetoprankedandfortificationwasthethird rankedsolution,withtremendouslyhighbenefitscomparedtocosts. TradeandSubsidies Inthisarea,theexpertpanelconsideredthefollowingsolutions:ahighqualityoutcometothe Dohainternationaltraderound;andincreasingtherateofmigrationtoboostthelaborforcein highincomecountries.Inthecaseoftradereform,livesarenotdirectlyandimmediatelyatrisk, andthebiggestbarrierispolitical,notfinancial.However,asagroup,theexpertpanelconcluded thatacomprehensiveconclusiontotheDohadevelopmentagendawouldyieldsuchexceptionally largebenefits,inrelationtocomparativelymodestadjustmentcosts,thatthissolutionwasranked second. Diseases Underthistopic,theexpertpanelexaminedsolutionstothechallengeofbothcommunicableand noncommunicabledisease.Thesolutionsexaminedwere:fightingtuberculosisthroughdrugsand improvedcaseidentification;gettingcheapdrugsthattreatacuteheartdiseasetodeveloping countries;combiningamalariapreventionpackage(mosquitonets,DDTspray,etc)withsubsidies onnewtreatments;expandingimmunizationandmicronutrientcoverageforchildrenin developingnations;implementingtobaccotaxesindevelopingnations;andamultiple interventionapproachtopreventingandtreatingHIV/AIDS;makinginvestmentsinhospitals. Severaldiseasesolutionswererankedveryhighlybytheexpertpanel,wherethebenefits significantlyexceededthecosts.Theseoptionsincludedexpandedimmunizationcoveragefor children(rankedfourth);heartattackacutemanagement(ranked11th);malariapreventionand treatment(ranked12th);tuberculosiscasefindingandtreatment(ranked13th).

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Education Theresearchtheexpertsconsideredfocusedontargetingchildrenwhohadalreadyattended someschoolandthendroppedout.Thesolutionsexaminedbytheexpertswere:providing nutritionalsupplementsortreatmentsforintestinalparasitestoraiseschoolattendanceand increasephysicalandmentalcapacity;reducingthecostofschooling;conditionalcashtransfers (whereparentsarepaidinexchangeforsendingtheirchildrentoschoolregularly). ThefirstofthesesolutionswascombinedwithaproposedsolutionfromtheDiseaseschallenge paper,becausebothlargelydealtwithdeworminganditsbenefits.Thiscombinedsolutionwas rankedsixth.Loweringthepriceofschoolingwasrankedseventh,withaninvestmentof$5.4 billionyearlyforanaddedthreeyearofschoolingcoveringintotal12.6millionelementarydrop outs. WomenandDevelopment Underthisheading,theexpertpanelconsideredmeasurestoincreaseandimprovegirls schooling;providingsupportforwomensreproductiverole;microfinancetopoorwomen borrowers;affirmativeaction.Measurestoimproveandincreasegirlsschoolingthrough conditionalcashtransferstomotherswasrankedatnumbereightbythegroup,providing excellentbenefitstocosts. GlobalWarming Theexpertsconsideredfoursolutionsinthisarea:investingonlyinmitigation;investingin mitigationandresearchanddevelopmentintolowcarbonenergytechnology;investingonlyin researchanddevelopmentintolowcarbonenergytechnology;investinginacombinationof mitigation,researchanddevelopmentandadaptation.Mitigationonlyandacombinationof mitigationandR&Dweregiventhelowesttworankingsbytheexpertpanel,duetotheirvery poorbenefit/costratio.Theoptionincludingadaptationwasdiscarded,astheadaptationis essentiallyincludedinnearlyeveryotheroptionpresentedtotheCopenhagenConsensus.An investmentintoresearchanddevelopmentinlowcarbonenergytechnologieswasranked14thby theexpertpanel. SanitationandWater Underthisheading,theexpertsconsideredinterventionsthatwouldimproveaccesstoclean drinkingwaterand/orsanitation.Thesolutionstheyconsideredwere:settinguparuralwater supplyprogramprovidingpoorcommunitiesinAfricawithdeepboreholesandpublichand pumps;developingcampaignsthatraiseawarenessofdiseasetransmission,healthcosts,andthe socialbenefitsofsanitation;ensuringaffectedcommunitieshaveaccesstotechnologytoremove contaminantsinrawwatersupplies;buildingreservoirsinsomepartsofAfrica,suchasthesparsly inhabitedBlueNilegorgeinEthiopia.Theexpertpanelconsideredthatbiosandfiltersandthe ruralwatersupplyprogramofferedsomepromisingbenefitsasintermediatesolutionstothis problem. Conflict Themainfocusoftheresearchthattheexpertsexaminedisonreducingtheriskofconflictre emerginginacountryaftercivilwar.Itusedtheprovisionofaidasabenchmarksolution,and thensuggestedthefollowing:linkingaidtolimitsonmilitaryspending;sendingsignificantmilitary
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forcesintonationsemergingfromconflicttoreducetheriskofarelapseintoviolence;providing (andhavingtheabilitytobackup)apromisethatamilitaryforcewillintervenewhena democraticallyelectedgovernmentisthreatenedbyviolence.Theexpertpanelfoundthatpeace keepingforcesinpostconflictsituationscouldprovidefairbenefitsforthecost. AirPollution Theexpertsexaminedresearchexploringsolutionstobothindoorandoutdoorairpollution.The solutionsconsideredwere:Providingachimneylessrocketstovetothoseusingunhealthy,old fashionedstoves;switchingtolowandultralowsulfurvehiclefuels(dieselandgasoline)forurban vehicles;retrofittingdieselfuelledbusesanddeliverytruckswithfiltersthatreduceurban pollutionanditshealtheffects;introducingexhaustemissionlimitsfordieselvehiclesand checkingtailpipeemissionsinabidtocurbpollution.Thesolutiontoindoorpollutionwasranked at23,higherthantheoutdoorairpollutionsolutions,whoseveryhighcostsoutweighedthe benefitsinadevelopingnationcontext. Terrorism Thepanelchosenottoincludeanyoftheproposedsolutionstothechallengeofterrorisminthe overallranking.Thoughthepaperpresentedinnovativeandnewworkontheeconomiccostsand benefitofterrorprevention,thepanelfoundthattherewasnotsufficientevidenceregardingthe proposedoptions.

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Howtospend$75billionoverfouryears WhenthebudgetaryconstraintsoftheCopenhagenConsensusframeworkareappliedtothe expertpanelsprioritizedlist,moneycanbeallocatedtothirteenofthesolutions.Theyearly budgetis$18.75billion(4yearsx$18.75b=$75b),andprovidesforabroadrangeofinvestments. Yearlycostin Solution millionUSD 1 Micronutrientsupplementsforchildren(vitaminAandzinc) 60 2 TheDohadevelopmentagenda 0 3 Micronutrientfortification(ironandsaltiodization) 286 4 Expandedimmunizationcoverageforchildren 1,000 5 Biofortification 60 6 Dewormingandothernutritionprogramsatschool 27 7 Loweringthepriceofschooling 5,400 8 Increaseandimprovegirlsschooling 6,000 9 Communitybasednutritionpromotion 798 10 Providesupportforwomensreproductiverole 4,000 11 Heartattackacutemanagement 200 12 Malariapreventionandtreatment 500 13 Tuberculosiscasefindingandtreatment 419 Total 18,750
Note:AllcostsarebasedontheChallengePaperauthorsestimates.InthecaseofSolution13(tuberculosiscase findingandtreatment),theauthorestimatesthetotalcostsoftheinterventiontobe$1billion.However,owingtothe annualbudgetaryrestrictionof$18.75billion,only$419millioncanbeallocated.

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