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Table of Contents
Strategy Portfolio Angel Research Model Portfolio 1QFY2012 Sectoral Outlook Automobile Banking Capital Goods Cement FMCG Infrastructure Metals Oil & Gas Pharmaceutical Power Real Estate Software Telecom Watch Stock Watch 15 18 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 56
Note: Stock prices as on June 30, 2011 Refer to important Disclosures at the end of the report
2-12 13
Strategy
On the cusp of a turn
Indian markets have underperformed almost all major global markets in the current calendar year ostensibly due to the twin macro-concerns of high inflation and interest rates; and now the key question on the minds of investors is when the rate cycle will reverse. While the trajectory was a little less certain even a couple of months back, in our view, various indicators are signaling that inflation and interest rates are close to peak levels, with respite likely from the second half. In our view, external issues such as the Greek crisis can contribute to near-term uncertainty and volatility, but they are unlikely to materially impact the overall upward trajectory of the Indian economy and markets, which are underpinned by strong structural growth drivers, and even in the near-term are likely to register GDP growth of 7.5-8%. Hence, we maintain our positive stance on Indian equities as we believe that valuations remain fairly attractive, especially in light of the reasonable earnings visibility over the next two years. etc., but nonetheless, food inflation cooling off significantly in recent weeks should reduce policymakers' need to tighten the policy even symbolically. Respite also on global commodities, sustainable crude range US$95-105: Global demand weakness is already leading to cooling commodity prices. Also, affirming the risk to global GDP from higher crude, the IEA has decided to release reserves (third such instance since 1974). Our analysis also indicates that whenever the global oil bill exceeds 5% of GDP crude prices , tend to cool off as demand weakens. For CY2011, this gives a range of US$95-105 for crude. Fed US Fed still perceives deflationary pressures: Wholesale (PPI) inflation in the US is as high as 7.3%, largely similar to Indian WPI levels. The US Fed, on the contrary, is worried about deflation due to weak unemployment and housing data. It is dismissive about the current inflation readings, pointing that they are driven by global commodity price pressures that are expected to dissipate.
Strategy
Markets decline for second consecutive quarter
Indian markets continued to be under pressure for most of 1QFY2012 primarily due to concerns of higher inflation and the consequent policy rate hikes by the RBI. Despite the bounce-back at the very end of the quarter, overall the Sensex registered losses of 3.1% qoq, continuing the declining trend witnessed in 4QFY2011.
Feb-11
Mar-11
Japan Brazil
Apr-11
May-11
US Dow FTSE
May-11
Jun-11
350
(30,000)
ves
ll now 2% ti Just 1
May-08
May-09
May-07
May-10
May-11
Jan-09
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Jan-07
Jan-08
Sep-10
Jan-10
Jan-11
Strategy
Exhibit 5: CRR hikes - very few in this interest rate cycle
10.00 9.00 8.00
Even the 1-year and 10-year G-sec yield spread has recently turned into the negative territory i.e., bond markets are also signalling that interest rates are closer to peak (as witnessed in the last interest rate cycle).
(%)
4.00
May-07 Sep-07 May-08 Sep-08 May-09 Sep-09 May-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
Credit offtake has fallen while deposit accretion has gained momentum
Prior to December 2010, broader deposit mobilisation was inevitably lower in light of high inflation and deposit rates even below NSS rates. Due to the resulting drying up of liquidity, broader interest rates have already gone up by about 200-225bp. With the sharp spike in lending rates, credit offtake has declined, as evident from the incremental CD ratio in FY2012 YTD (up to June 17) at just 44.9% compared to 247.1% during the same period in FY2011. A like-to-like comparison between Marchend and mid-June of FY2011 vs. FY2012 indicates 11% lower credit mobilisation vs. almost 5x higher deposit mobilisation. Peak retail FD rates currently hovering at 9-9.5% for major banks are well above the 8% that NSS offers and well above the 10-year G-Sec yield (8.3%) i.e., deposit mobilisation has picked up significantly only to be largely deployed at a negative spread into government bonds. Accordingly, we expect deposit rates as well as private sector lending rates to not go up further even if the RBI hikes the repo rate a couple of more times, as demand-supply dynamics for the banking sector dictate otherwise. In fact, we expect broader deposit and lending rates to decline from 2HFY2012, once WPI inflation also starts heading lower (the near-term uptick due to hike in fuel prices is in our view already factored in by the RBI and markets).
RBI's actions for containing demand-side inflationary pressures are bearing fruits
The RBI in its Annual Review of Monetary Policy for FY2012 had indicated its intention to contain demand-side pressures on inflation through continuance of tight monetary policy and to carry out further rate hikes if needed. Broader interest rates have risen by 200-225bp and signs of weakening demand are emerging in interest-sensitive sectors. 1) Real estate and infrastructure sectors are getting adversely impacted, 2) evidencing this slowing construction activity, cement volumes are flat on a yoy basis, 3) auto sales are decelerating, with passenger vehicles growing by just 6.2% yoy in May 2011 and 4) gross capital formation has been stagnant in 4QFY2011. The interest-sensitive mortgage demand, which has a substantial negative correlation with interest rates, is also expected to trend down going forward, as home loan rates have also hardened by 150-200bp and SBI's teaser rate scheme has been discontinued. Although sales of 19 large listed real estate companies have recovered from post-Lehman lows, they are still barely at the levels before the Lehman crisis even after a passage of three years and, in our view, higher interest rates could dampen real estate activity further. Cement dispatches for April and May 2011 have been almost stagnant on a yoy basis, providing further evidence of slowing construction activity. Passenger vehicles yoy growth decelerated to a more than two-year low of 6.2% yoy in May 2011. Another acknowledged lead indicator of the broader economy commercial vehicle sales, which were growing at a healthy rate of 30%+ at the start of FY2011, have slowed down to below 20% growth rate. Hence, with the RBI's actions for containment of demand-side inflationary pressures bearing fruits, we expect the monetary tightening stance to end sooner than expected by the markets.
4
80,000
70,503
62,862
40,000
28,527
Source: RBI, Angel Research; Note: #Between March 26, 2010 and June 18, 2010, * Between March 25, 2011 and June 17, 2011 Refer to important Disclosures at the end of the report
Strategy
Exhibit 8: Interest rates vs. housing loan growth
14.0 12.0 9.7 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 8.1 24.1 15.5 9.2 10.2 10.0
10.0 -
35.3 11.4
30.0
32.2
20.0
20.0
16.3
17.8 13.1
Jun-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Jul-10
Sep-10
1QFY2008
2QFY2008
3QFY2008
4QFY2008
1QFY2009
2QFY2009
3QFY2009
4QFY2009
1QFY2010
2QFY2010
3QFY2010
4QFY2010
1QFY2011
2QFY2011
3QFY2011
4QFY2011
(10.0)
Dec-10
May-11
Jan-11
Sep-10
Oct-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Feb-11
Jul-10
29.9
30.0 25.0
23.0
20.9 17.8
200,000
May-11
100,000 -
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
May-11
10.0 5.0 (5.0)
Aug-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
Strategy
Oil burden closer to the peak of historical averages; other commodities also expected to soften further on moderating global demand
Global oil prices had risen sharply over the past few months (from a steady range of US$85-95/barrel at the start of CY2011. Brent crude rose to the peak of US$125/barrel in April 2011 and has averaged over US$111/barrel in CY2011YTD, thereby impacting emerging economies like India in particular. However, looking at the trend in crude oil burden (crude oil consumption as a percentage of global GDP) over the past decade, we believe crude prices are closer to their peak levels. Since CY1999, crude oil burden has averaged 3.1% with a peak of 5.0% in CY2008. However, with the increase in oil prices, global forecasted crude oil bill for CY2011 has risen to 5.2%, indicating that CY2011 YTD average oil prices are closer to their peak levels based on historical trends. Hence, we expect Brent crude to continue its recent moderating trend further before stabilising in the US$95-105/barrel band. 28 member countries, recently decided to release 60mn barrels of oil from its emergency stocks. IEA member countries currently hold 4.1bn barrels of oil, of which 1.6bn barrels are held exclusively for emergency use (equivalent to 146 days of net oil imports as against the legal obligation of 90 days). Significantly, this is only the third time since 1974 that the IEA has tapped into its emergency stockpiles, indicating the willingness to reduce the burden of oil prices on the already moderating economic growth and carry out further releases if the situation does not improve. Though the quantum of the recent release was small at 60mn barrels (2mn barrels/day for 30 days) as compared to global forecasted demand for 2011 at ~88mn barrels/day, the quantum of excess reserves with IEA is large enough to continue a similar 'stimulus' for ~300 days. The announcement resulted in a sharp fall in oil prices and is expected to keep them on a downward bias at least in the short term. The government recently decided to hike the prices of several regulated fuels due to the rising under recoveries of OMCs. However, the recent decline in crude prices is expected to contain inflationary pressures within comfortable levels going forward.
Global GDP 2011E (US$ bn) 68,652 68,652 68,652 68,652 68,652 Source: IMF, OPEC, Angel Research
105 90 75
1.1 0.0
Source: IMF, OPEC, Angel Research; Note: 2011 data as per YTD average prices
Further, with the signs of recovery in advanced economies like the US moderating, consumption is likely to be lower than forecasted, thereby causing a decline in prices. Even the Federal Reserve in its recent review has revised its estimates downwards for US' GDP growth for the current as well as next year, suggesting moderating economic growth. In order to reduce the impact of disruption in Libyan oil supplies, the International Energy Agency (IEA), which consists of
In case of other commodities, with the recent signs of moderation in advanced economies and the re-emergence of sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone, we expect commodities to remain under pressure at least in the short term, which is expected to wane inflationary pressures on the Indian economy. The US Fed also expects pressures from global commodity and energy prices to dissipate going forward, as it modulates its accommodative monetary policy. Also, with the second round of Quantitative Easing (QE-II) ending on June 30, the speculative money which, to an extent, was fueling the commodity prices will shrink, thereby putting downward pressure on prices.
Strategy
The S&P GSCI index, which consists of 24 commodities from all commodity sectors energy products, industrial metals, agricultural products, livestock products and precious metals has cooled off ~12% from its recent peaks (trading near five-month lows), indicating the downward pressure on demand due to moderating global growth. inflation is generally assessed in terms of consumer price inflation (CPI). The Indian CPI is highly skewed towards food items (with a weightage of ~50% in the recently launched new CPI series), which are more relevant in a populous and developing country like India, compared to ~15% weightage in the CPI for US. If we compare the two countries' wholesale price indices, the difference between inflation levels is much smaller. The US PPI is mainly driven by higher global energy and commodity prices, which is a similar situation as with the Indian WPI; in fact, the US PPI is currently prevailing at as high a level as 7.3%. However, the US Central Bank is not worried about the same and expects pressures from these factors to dissipate as it modulates its accommodative monetary policy and the base effect kicks in. In fact, it is still more worried about deflation due to weak unemployment and housing data, which are key demand indicators relevant for monetary policy decision-making. We believe the Indian Central Bank should also take cognizance of this fact and use the monetary tightening tool sparingly in case of energy and commodity prices-related inflation.
Manufacturing PMI SA
India WPI
US PPI
That said, with food forming a substantial 45-60% of the common man's consumption basket depending on the various domestic consumer inflation indices, rising food prices are bound to be a serious concern for policymakers (not debating the Indian CPI composition which, unlike the US CPI, does not properly cover several items like housing and healthcare). In our view, there is broad acknowledgement that increasing rates is not the way to tackle this, rather we need to improve factors such as supply, logistics, procurement and subsidy disbursement. That said, the significant cooling of food inflation in the recent weeks will provide a respite to policymakers as regards headline inflation numbers, thus reducing the need to resort to even symbolic monetary policy tightening.
UK Mfg PMI
US Mfg PMI
Strategy
In fact, food inflation is hovering around its two-year low. Primary articles inflation has also come down sharply from its recent peak of 18.4% in January 2011 to 11.3% in May 2011. Even the spread between the primary articles and manufactured products inflation in the WPI has narrowed considerably from the recent peaks, indicating a greater proportion of pass-through of raw-material cost pressures this would ease off cost-push inflationary pressures going forward. However, over the past 2-3 quarters, there has been a wide divergence between them. The quarterly average primary articles inflation has eased considerably from the peak levels of 21.4% in the quarter ended March 2010 to 15.9% during 4QFY2011. On the other hand, raw-material costs as a percentage of sales has gone up to 44.6% during 4QFY2011. Primary articles inflation has softened further to 11.8% during 1QFY2012 (up to June 18, 2011); hence, we expect raw-material cost pressures to decelerate over the next couple of quarters and aid in improving overall EBITDA margins.
Avg. Primary Articles Inflation (%, RHS) 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0
25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 May-08 May-09 May-10 Nov-10 May-11
Strategy
Exhibit 25: Healthy traction in exports
30 46.0 41.1 37.3 20 30.6 26.9 19.3 10 21.6 25.8 41.2 42.2 42.5 44.7 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 Aug-10 Feb-11 Jul-10 May-11 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jun-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Apr-11
a minor 0.5% of global GDP for CY2011 (as per IMF estimates), creating enough scope (and incentive) for larger countries to bailout Greece and prevent wider global financial repercussions.
0.3
0.5
Ireland
Greece
Spain
In our view, external issues such as the Greek crisis can contribute to near-term uncertainty and volatility from an Indian market perspective, but they are unlikely to materially impact the overall upward trajectory of the Indian economy and markets, which are underpinned by strong structural growth drivers and even in the near-term are likely to register GDP growth of 7.5-8%.
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research; Note: Numbers in brackets denote appreciation of INR
Strategy
Exhibit 28: US unemployment well above average levels
12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 Jan-48 Sep-54 Jan-58 Sep-64 Jan-68 Sep-74 Jan-78 Sep-84 Jan-88 Sep-94 Jan-98 Sep-04 May-51 May-61 May-71 May-81 May-91 May-01 Jan-08 May-11
Average
2%
w gro
th
1,421
row %g
th
1,193
9%
w gro
th
1,014
FY2011
FY2012E
FY2013E
The US Federal Reserve in its June 2011 policy review meeting, for the second time, revised GDP growth forecasts downwards. Real GDP growth for 2011 has now been pegged at 2.8% compared to January 2011 estimate of 3.7%; similarly for 2012, it stands at 3.5% against the estimate of 4.0% in January 2011. Also, unemployment levels have been pegged higher than April 2011 forecasts, suggesting an overall moderating trend in the economic growth.
(x)
20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Average P/E Mar-10 Mar-11
6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Bond Yield Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11
Earnings Yield
The primary growth drivers of Sensex EPS over FY2011-13E are expected to be BFSI, oil and gas and metal stocks, with the BFSI sector expected to contribute 31.6% to overall growth in Sensex EPS during the period, while contribution from the oil and gas and metal sectors is estimated to be at 16.8% and
10
Strategy
11.9%, respectively. Strong performance by the BFSI sector highlights the underpenetration of financial services in India, which would drive credit growth in the years to come. IT companies are expected to contribute healthy 10.7% to Sensex EPS growth over FY2011-13E, primarily backed by higher volumes. On the other hand, sectors such as telecom, power and FMCG are expected to underperform the others. The combined contribution of all these sectors to Sensex EPS growth is expected to be 12.6% over FY2011-13E. We expect FMCG companies to post decent 16.4% yoy growth in sales on the back of higher volumes as well as price hikes; the increase in profits is expected to be healthy 20.7% yoy due to an 87bp yoy expansion in operating margins. Power companies are expected to post a 15.5% increase in sales, while PAT is expected to grow by healthy 22.8% on the back of OPM expansion of 262bp yoy. The auto, capital goods, metals and telecom sectors are expected to be the major underperformers during this quarter. Auto stocks are expected to report 12.1% yoy growth in profit, despite a healthy 22.2% increase in sales, mainly because of sub-15% growth in earnings for Hero Honda, Tata Motors and M&M due to stiff pressure on margins on account of high input costs. Maruti Suzuki is expected to report a 3.7% yoy decline in profits due to lower volumes as well as margin compression. Telecom companies are expected to report a decline in profits, despite substantial top-line growth. The telecom sector is expected to report a healthy 29.1% yoy increase in the top line, partially because of the inclusion of Zain's numbers in Bharti Airtel's accounts. However, due to increased competition and higher interest and other costs on account of the 3G network rollout, profits are expected to decline by 2.5% yoy. RCom's earnings are expected to fall substantially by 72.2% yoy due to operating margin compression as well as higher interest costs. Ex. telecom, profit growth in the Sensex is estimated at 14.7% yoy. Metal companies are expected to witness healthy growth of 27.3% in the top line on the back of stronger commodity prices as well as volume growth on account of capacity expansions. However, profits are expected to grow by relatively lower 11.2% yoy, primarily due to high input costs denting margins by 207bp yoy. Though the capital goods sector is expected to witness strong sales growth of 25.8%, margins are estimated to fall by 92bp yoy, resulting in bottom-line growth of just 5.8%. In the construction sector, we expect JP Associates to report moderate performance on the top-line front with strong growth in adjusted net profit. Sales and adjusted profits are estimated to grow by 11.6% and 88.4% yoy, respectively, with margins increasing by 275bp. We expect Cipla to perform moderately, with 15.5% top-line growth and 9.4% growth in the bottom line.
Auto
IT
Metals
Power
Real Estate
FMCG
Pharma
Engg.
Finance
Telecom
Constr.
Total
11
Strategy
Exhibit 35: Quarterly earnings trend for Sensex companies
(` Net Sales (` cr) Company Bajaj Auto Bharti Airtel BHEL Cipla DLF HDFC HDFCBK Hero Honda Hindalco HUL ICICIBK Infosys ITC 1QFY2012E 4,763 17,212 8,251 1,649 2,334 1,326 4,180 5,704 19,476 5,462 4,385 7,435 5,692 1QFY2011 3,737 12,231 6,601 1,427 2,029 1,081 3,341 4,265 16,544 4,794 3,672 6,198 4,817 2,998 3,214 7,885 5,124 8,051 12,944 13,823 5,069 3,706 58,228 10,994 5,925 26,876 5,152 27,195 8,216 7,236 283,372 % chg 27.4 40.7 25.0 15.5 15.0 22.6 25.1 33.7 17.7 13.9 19.4 20.0 18.2 19.5 11.6 26.0 27.5 2.5 16.6 17.1 1.1 28.2 18.2 13.9 72.2 23.4 7.6 27.5 28.4 15.2 21.7 21.8 Profit (` Net Profit (` cr) 1QFY2012E 734 1,874 785 282 408 884 1,073 550 819 609 1,493 1,689 1,301 864 199 674 637 448 2,091 3,904 70 391 5,615 2,550 1,700 2,226 494 1,858 2,182 1,363 39,766 1QFY2011 590 1,743 668 257 411 695 812 492 759 515 1,026 1,488 1,070 957 106 666 562 465 1,842 3,661 251 375 4,851 2,914 1,008 1,989 318 1,865 1,843 1,318 35,518 % chg 24.3 7.5 17.6 9.3 (0.8) 27.3 32.2 11.9 7.8 18.3 45.5 13.5 21.6 (9.7) 88.4 1.2 13.3 (3.7) 13.5 6.6 (72.2) 4.2 15.7 (12.5) 68.6 11.9 55.5 (0.4) 18.4 3.4 12.0 14.0 Weightage % Contribution (%) to Sensex growth# 1.4 3.5 2.3 1.1 0.6 6.2 6.2 1.2 2.5 1.6 8.4 9.4 7.3 1.8 0.6 6.6 2.3 1.1 2.0 3.1 0.5 0.5 10.7 4.6 1.7 2.5 1.4 2.7 4.6 1.7 100 2.8 1.8 1.6 0.6 (0.0) 6.7 8.2 1.1 1.2 2.6 18.3 6.7 6.3 (1.6) 2.0 0.3 2.3 (0.3) 2.0 1.9 (2.5) 0.3 16.4 (6.4) 12.2 6.5 4.8 (0.2) 4.0 0.4 100
Jindal Steel & Power 3,582 JP Associates L&T M&M Maruti Suzuki NTPC ONGC RCOM Reliance Infra RIL SBI Sterlite Tata Motors Tata Power Tata Steel TCS Wipro Total Sensex# 3,588 9,938 6,536 8,250 15,094 16,191 5,123 4,751 68,849 12,519 10,200 33,166 5,543 34,668 10,547 8,335 344,749
12
Company
CMP (`)
Stance
Underweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Equalweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Underweight Underweight Underweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Underweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Underweight Underweigh Underweight Underweight Underweight Overweight Equalweight Underweight Overweight Overweight Overweight
13
14
Automobile
Strong demand growth witnessed in the Indian auto sector in FY2010 and FY2011 showed signs of slowing down during 1QFY2012. Although the overall auto sector reported healthy growth of ~18% YTD in FY2012, it was primarily driven by the two-wheeler and three-wheeler segments. We expect our auto universe to report ~18% yoy growth in revenue during 1QFY2012 on the back of ~17% yoy jump in volumes. However, on a sequential basis, revenue is expected to decline by ~10%, led by a qoq decline in passenger vehicle (PV) and commercial vehicle (CV) volumes. While the strong growth momentum in two-wheelers and light commercial vehicles (LCV) continued in 1QFY2012, cumulative effects of rising interest rates and a sharp increase in fuel prices resulted in slowing PV and medium and heavy commercial vehicles (M&HCV) demand. We expect the near-term demand environment to remain challenging for the auto sector due to increased ownership cost for consumers. The long-term demand momentum is expected to remain healthy, aided by positive consumer sentiment, rising income levels, easy availability of finance and new launches. 6-18% yoy. Rubber and lead prices also rose by ~38% and ~30% yoy, respectively, during the quarter.
Jul-09
Mar-10
BSE_SENSEX
Oct-10
Jun-11
15
Automobile
Ashok Leyland, on the other hand, witnessed a 9.9% yoy dip in volumes, led by a 14.2% yoy fall in the M&HCV goods segment.
1QFY12
193,038 49,115 77,033 126,148 10,627 56,263 66,890 14,886
1QFY11 % chg
181,711 45,298 61,639 106,937 9,795 64,979 12,243 21,400 6.2 8.4 25.0 18.0 8.5 (13.4) 21.6 (9.9)
FY2011 FY2011
803,265 212,278 284,647 496,925 43,076 263,264 306,340 58,044 94,106
FY2010 % chg
642,685 167,828 233,697 401,525 34,124 207,036 241,160 34,140 63,926 25.0 26.5 21.8 23.8 26.2 27.2 27.0 70.0 47.2
74,774 (10.5)
1QFY12
1,092,815 963,051 129,764
1QFY11 % chg
928,336 828,418 99,918 323,899 1,234,039 463,840 200,358 95,486 160,197 7,799 54,483
FY2011 FY2011
FY2010 % chg
34.0 34.9 28.1 35.2 17.4 33.2 30.6 50.7 23.1
17.7 3,823,929 2,852,632 16.3 3,387,045 2,511,696 29.9 436,884 340,936 890,006
Exports (Inc above ) 427,364 Hero Honda TVS Motors Motorcycles Scooters Mopeds Three Wheelers Exports (Inc above ) 1,529,577 536,130 215,051 117,523 192,133 11,423 77,802
31.9 1,203,718
23.9 5,402,444 4,600,130 15.6 2,046,731 1,536,868 7.3 23.1 19.9 46.5 42.8 836,821 466,264 703,717 39,929 234,411 640,965 309,501 571,536
1QFY12
281,526 249,181 1,502 250,683 30,843 162,149 5,717 57,244 2,908
1QFY11 % chg
283,324 239,898 2,989 242,887 40,437 132,241 78,318 3,775 47,716 2,432
FY2011 FY2011
FY2010 % chg
24.8 30.0 44.1 30.1 (6.3) 24.9 24.9 64.6 21.8 31.9
(0.6) 1,271,015 1,018,365 3.9 1,127,083 (49.7) (23.7) 22.6 22.9 51.4 20.0 19.6 5,666 138,266 590,719 358,023 19,042 201,786 11,868 3.2 1,132,749 866,858 3,932 870,790 147,575 472,914 286,713 11,567 165,633 9,001
Automotive-Domestic 96,280
Automobile
21% yoy decline in CY2009. The US and European Union are the major export destinations for Indian auto component manufacturers, contributing 60-65% to the sector's export revenue. Going ahead, we expect the auto component industry to register moderate growth as domestic OEM demand is expected to ease after witnessing strong volume growth over the last two years. However, exports are likely to grow at a healthy rate on revival in the automobile industry across the globe and increased penetration of domestic auto component players in key export markets over the next couple of years. Further, with India emerging as a global automotive manufacturing hub, foreign players are setting up their facilities in the country, and this is expected to aid sourcing of components from the country over the long term. Replacement demand in the industry is expected to grow at a steady rate of 8-10%, although the threat of cheaper Chinese imports will remain a major concern for domestic manufacturers. Companies in the subsegments of the auto components sector (tyres, bearings and batteries), with a larger share of revenue from the replacement and domestic markets, are likely to register strong growth in the next couple of years.
Outlook
Considering the near-term macroeconomic challenges, we expect the auto industry to register moderate volume growth of 12-13% for FY2012. However, we believe low penetration levels coupled with a healthy and sustainable economic environment and favourable demographics supported by increasing per capita income levels will drive long-term growth of the Indian auto industry. As such, we prefer stocks that have strong fundamentals, ability to deliver strong top-line performance and are available at attractive valuations. We continue to prefer companies in the auto sector with a strong pricing power and high exposure to rural and exports markets. We prefer M&M among auto heavyweights. In the ancillary space, we maintain our positive stance on Exide Industries, Tyres Tyres. Apollo Tyres and JK Tyres.
(` cr)
rge Target Reco.
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Price as on June 30, 2011, @Adjusted for extraordinary items; * Consolidated numbers
(` cr)
Reco. Accumulate Neutral Accumulate Neutral Accumulate Buy
Exide Industries 162 FAG Bearing# 1,194 Motherson Sumi* 226 Apollo Tyres* 78
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Price as on June 30, 2011, * Consolidated numbers; # December year ending
17
Banking
During 1QFY2012, banking stocks suffered on account of uncertain domestic macro conditions, which have been plagued by high inflation for over a year now. With margin compressions and provisioning for pension expenses for retired employees in case of PSU banks in 4QFY2011 results already having created doubtful sentiments, the possibility of further aggressive rate hikes by the RBI as inflation numbers continued to be much outside the comfort zone led to a sharp correction in the Bankex in the last week of April. An aggressive 50bp hike in key policy rates in the May 3rd monetary policy was accompanied by the increase in savings rate and shift to relatively stricter provisioning norms, which further slid the Bankex down. Eventually, the Bankex rallied along with the Sensex in the last week of June, with increasing visibility that inflation may cool down from 2HFY2012. By the end of the quarter, the Bankex was down by 3.6% sequentially, underperforming the Sensex marginally by 0.5%. Within our coverage universe, Federal Bank gave the highest returns of 7.9% sequentially, followed by HDFC Bank and South Indian Bank, with gains of 6.8% and 4.8%, respectively.
80,000
70,503
62,862
40,000
28,527
Source: RBI, Angel Research; Note: #Between March 26, 2010 and June 18, 2010, * Between March 25, 2011 and June 17, 2011
18
Banking
Exhibit 3: 4QFY2011 and 1QFY2012 Lending and deposit rates
Avg. Avg. Base rates Bank AXSB HDFCBK SBI ICICIBK IDBI CRPBK CANBK BOB J&KBK UNBK BOI SYNBK OBC ANDHBK CENTBK DENABK IOB INDBK PNB UCOBK SIB ALLBK UTDBK 4QFY11 8.52 8.03 8.12 8.44 9.29 9.14 9.31 9.31 9.01 9.31 9.32 9.32 9.32 9.31 9.31 9.27 9.32 9.33 9.33 9.33 8.92 9.33 9.45 1QFY12 9.64 9.00 8.85 9.05 9.81 9.65 9.81 9.81 9.50 9.80 9.81 9.81 9.81 9.79 9.79 9.76 9.81 9.81 9.81 9.81 9.40 9.81 9.79 9.81 BP change 112 97 73 61 52 51 50 50 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 48 48 34 31 4QFY11 16.50 17.25 13.00 17.50 14.00 13.25 13.75 13.75 13.25 13.75 13.75 13.75 13.75 13.75 13.75 14.50 13.75 13.75 13.00 13.75 17.50 13.75 13.50 13.75 BPLR rates 1QFY12 17.25 17.75 14.00 18.00 14.50 13.85 14.25 14.25 14.00 14.25 14.25 14.25 14.25 14.25 14.25 15.00 14.25 14.25 13.50 14.25 18.50 14.25 14.25 14.25 BP change 75 50 100 50 50 60 50 50 75 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 100 50 75 50 4QFY11 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.10 9.35 9.50 8.75 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.60 9.00 9.25 9.50 9.15 9.00 9.75 8.75 8.75 9.35 FD rates 1QFY12 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.50 9.30 9.25 9.00 9.00 9.25 9.25 9.35 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.15 9.00 9.75 9.00 8.75 9.35 BP change 25 5 15 (35) (50) 50 10 (35) 25 (25) 25 -
On the back of pick-up in deposit growth rates in 1QFY2012, some of the banks reduced their term deposit rates. However, on the advances side, banks raised their lending rates by ~50bp on an average during the quarter. Amongst banks under our coverage, Axis Bank had the highest average base rate change (112bp), followed by HDFC Bank (97bp). We expect most banks, especially the smaller banks with low CASA ratios, to face NIM pressures during the quarter, as 1) further deposits reprice upwards, 2) CASA ratios decline as rising interest rates are likely to have resulted in a shift from savings to term deposits and 3) in most cases, CD ratios deteriorate in line with sectoral trends. Overall, we expect large private banks to post 25% yoy growth in net interest income, while PSU banks are expected to register 20.6% yoy growth.
The easing of liquidity pressures in 1QFY2012 post two quarters of heavy liquidity crunch in the system (average LAF borrowings for 3QFY2011 and 4QFY2011 at `92,300 and `83,800cr, respectively) further suggests that banks may not increase deposit rates any further even if there are further rate hikes by the RBI.
Banking
Central Bank of India, Vijaya Bank, Bank of India and Dena Bank. However, with one-time costs related to pension expenses for retired employees having been provided in 4QFY2011, we expect most PSU banks under our coverage to report a decline or negligible increase in staff costs in FY2012.
52.5 48.3 43.3 42.0 39.2 34.2 29.8 26.5 19.3 13.5 11.2 10.3 7.2 5.8
9.63
9.45 9.62
9.35 9.59
9.20 9.59
9.55
9.23 9.57
9.15
9.62
8.50
2Yr AAA
3Yr AAA
5Yr AAA
31-Mar-11
7Yr AAA
10Yr AAA
1Yr Gsec
7.55 8.30
10Yr Gsec
30-Jun-11
1.10
1.06
0.90
3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11
Source: Company, Angel Research Refer to important Disclosures at the end of the report
7.99 8.33
20
Banking
Hike in savings deposit rate; Provisioning norms become stricter
The RBI hiked the savings bank rate by 50bp to 4.0% on May 3, 2011, the first hike in the past 19 years, to reduce the spread between saving deposit and term deposit rates, which had widened significantly in the recent period; this move by the RBI is possibly a precursor to the deregulation. The impact of the hike is expected to be more on banks with a higher proportion of saving account deposits to total liabilities. Assuming no interest burden had been passed on, the overall negative impact would have been 0.4-9.3% on the net profit level (FY2012E) and 1-8bp on the return on assets (FY2012E) level. However, as expected, most banks have passed on the increased burden of cost of deposits through lending rate hikes. The RBI relaxed the 70% provisioning coverage norm for banks; however, it increased the provisioning requirements across the NPL bucket by 5-10%. Even in case of restructured advances, provisioning requirements were hiked to 2.0% from the existing 0.25-1.0% (depending on the category of advances), which is expected to add to the provisioning burden mainly for PSU banks in 1QFY2012. With inflation not budging, the RBI was forced into further rate hikes, which we feel was justified considering the generalisation of inflationary pressures and the underlying strength in credit demand remaining firm. Meanwhile, growth has suffered, as pointed out by few of the growth indicators; however, with the policy action in shape, we expect inflation to moderate in the second half of FY2012. Also, we expect deposit rates as well as private sector lending rates to not go up further even if the RBI hikes the repo rate a couple of more times, as the demand-supply dynamics for the banking sector dictate otherwise. In fact, we expect broader deposit and lending rates to decline from 2HFY2012, once WPI inflation starts treading downwards (the near-term uptick due to fuel prices is in our view already factored in by the RBI and markets). Accordingly, while we continue to like large banks with strong deposit franchises, ICICI Bank and Axis Bank are our top picks in this space as in our view they will also be bigger beneficiaries of the eventual turn in the interest rate cycle. In the mid-cap space, we prefer banks that have either already seen bulk of the asset-quality pressures or have been relatively conservative in the past couple of years. In this space, we like Corporation Bank, Indian Bank, United Bank and Syndicate Bank. (` ( ` cr)
Net Profit Profit 1QFY12E 943 174 1,073 1,493 86 212 358 329 1,001 773 1,018 235 337 141 336 417 294 162 348 1,100 2,550 344 198 631 127 109 % chg 27.1 32.3 32.2 45.5 46.4 35.8 3.0 2.5 16.5 6.7 0.5 (30.3) 0.8 1.8 33.9 13.2 46.6 11.3 (4.1) 3.0 (12.5) 29.6 (23.9) 5.0 17.6 (37.4) FY11 82.5 34.3 84.4 44.7 2.6 20.9 29.9 22.6 108.0 45.5 90.9 27.7 95.4 18.3 16.7 38.8 18.7 126.9 51.5 139.9 130.1 18.3 12.6 32.7 13.2 8.7 EPS (`) (` FY12E 98.2 43.1 110.3 57.1 3.1 26.0 33.4 23.9 117.1 56.9 91.6 17.6 100.2 19.5 18.5 43.3 22.5 141.2 57.4 151.9 202.5 21.1 14.8 43.8 14.8 9.1 FY13E 120.8 49.6 143.5 69.3 3.2 29.8 35.6 24.0 131.9 67.2 92.6 22.0 107.5 20.3 21.9 47.4 26.4 150.2 66.6 174.6 270.6 24.0 17.8 47.8 17.1 10.3 Adj BVPS (`) BVPS (` FY11 462.5 298.3 545.5 478.3 14.8 109.3 152.7 116.0 534.4 266.6 381.8 126.6 466.4 102.9 128.0 179.5 128.7 717.4 334.3 602.7 108.3 65.5 162.0 101.6 65.0 FY12E 529.8 332.7 630.3 510.0 17.2 131.8 185.3 134.1 624.8 331.5 469.8 131.7 554.8 119.7 142.7 217.9 145.1 825.5 395.2 743.3 131.9 82.2 237.8 111.3 71.5 FY13E 622.7 371.8 741.2 549.0 19.2 156.9 211.1 152.4 726.5 383.3 534.9 149.7 640.1 137.1 159.5 254.8 165.9 940.2 447.9 882.0 150.1 92.4 274.4 122.3 78.7 FY11 15.6 13.2 29.7 24.4 9.3 14.9 6.6 5.9 8.1 9.1 5.8 4.5 5.5 4.9 8.1 5.5 7.9 6.6 6.4 7.8 18.5 6.4 7.6 9.0 7.3 8.0 P/E (x) FY12E 13.1 10.5 22.7 19.2 7.7 12.0 5.9 5.6 7.4 7.3 5.7 7.0 5.2 4.7 7.4 4.9 6.5 5.9 5.7 7.2 11.9 5.6 6.5 6.7 6.5 7.7 FY13E 10.7 9.1 17.4 15.8 7.4 10.5 5.5 5.6 6.6 6.2 5.7 5.6 4.9 4.5 6.2 4.5 5.6 5.6 4.9 6.2 8.9 4.9 5.4 6.1 5.6 6.8 P/ABV (x) P/ABV FY11 FY12E FY13E 2.8 1.5 4.6 2.3 1.6 2.9 1.3 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.8 2.6 1.1 1.5 1.8 0.9 1.1 2.4 1.4 4.0 2.1 1.4 2.4 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.5 2.1 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.2 3.4 1.3 2.0 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 Target (`) Buy 483 Accum. - Neutral Buy 26 Accum. 337 Accum. 222 Accum. 145 Accum. Buy Buy Reduce Buy Buy Buy 498 112 640 106 255 Reco.
2.1 1,650
2.0 1,355
1.2 1,017
- Neutral
- Neutral 166 Accum. 893 Accum. 392 Buy Buy Buy Buy
1.2 1,235 Accum. 1.8 2,832 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.9 139 357
Vaibhav Agrawal/ l/Shrinivas Bhutda Varm arma Analyst - Vaibhav Agrawal/ Shrinivas Bhutda / Varun Varma
21
Capital Goods
Capital Goods (CG) Index Still in doldrums
During 1QFY2012, the CG index outperformed the broader indices and ended with a gain of 5.1% in absolute terms, outperforming the Sensex by 8.2%. After reporting negative returns in the first two months of the quarter, the CG index bounced back in June with ~6% returns in absolute terms. This was largely aided by the recent rally in the broader markets. In addition, the spike in CG production reported through IIP numbers released in June had a positive impact on the CG index. However, we believe the surge in CG stocks is a temporary event, given the deteriorating macro enviroment lower-thanexpected industrial capex and higher working capital requirements.
15.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
Mar-10 (5.0)
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Repo Rate (%, RHS)
Jun-11 2.0
Coal deficit A key concern: With the Indian coal sector struggling to meet the demands of the power sector, the perceived shortage in coal supply casts a grim outlook on the power sector. Further, the coal sector is facing problems over coals blocks (No-Go regions declared by the Environment Ministry), thereby pressuring coal supply. However, the environment ministry has agreed to relax the 'No-Go region' norms in certain cases in order to cope with the massive capacity expansion planned in the country. Power sector hurdled with delays in capacity addition: Most of the companies in our CG universe have their fortunes directly linked to the pace of the power sector's growth in the country. India has a poor track record in this regard, with only 50-60% of the total planned capacity added during several of the previous five-year plans. For the Eleventh Plan, the capacity addition target was revised to 62,374MW (78,000MW), of which only 57% has been achived till May 2011. As per the planning commission, around 17,600MW of capacity addition is planned in FY2012, which also seems challenging. As per our analysis, we estimate a total capacity addition of 42,000MW at the end of the Eleventh Plan.
8.2 3.5
(9.7) (7.1)
3Q09 4Q09 1Q10
(4.6) (5.8)
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11
(10.7)
2Q10 3Q10 4Q10
(9.0)
4Q11 1Q12
Companies in our CG universe reported a mixed performance during the quarter. ABB and Jyoti Structures emerged as the major gainers, up 9.9% and 4.8%, in absolute terms and outperformed the Sensex by 13% and 7.8%, respectively. BGR Energy tumbled the most, declining by 5.9%, in absolute terms and underperformed the Sensex by 2.8%; slackening order inflows and poor earnings visibility remain as an overhang on the stock. BHEL faced downward pressure partially due to the proposed FPO, before recovering in the recent market rally. We believe the challenges outlined in the power sector such as coal linkages, delays in land acquisition and environmental clearances will remain a near-term drag for companies in our CG universe.
Refer to important Disclosures at the end of the report
22
Capital Goods
Exhibit 4: IIP growth
(%) 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 (5.0)
Apr-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jan-11 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Apr-11 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10
(10.0)
23
Capital Goods
(CMP/TP: 594/) Thermax (CMP/TP:`594/) (Rating: Neutral): Thermax bagged an order worth `366cr for a 120MW captive power plant for supplying two blast furnace gas-fired boilers and one steam turbine generator. The company also received an order valued at `403cr to supply circulating fluidised bed combustion (CFBC) boilers for a co-generation plant. Management is scouting overseas to buy a company with a technological edge in water waste management to strengthen its presence in the water treatment segment. The size of such an acquisition is expected to be around US$100mn. 1QFY2012 expectations: We expect companies in our CG universe to post cumulative top-line growth of 17% yoy. This would primarily be driven by BHEL and Jyoti Structures, which are expected to post strong revenue growth of 25% and 24% yoy, respectively. KEC International and Thermax are also likely to maintain steady top-line growth of 18% and 14.1% yoy, respectively. BGRs top line is expected to drop by 15% yoy on a high base. In the T&D equipment segment, we expect ABB and Areva to report top-line growth of 15% and 14% yoy, respectively, while Crompton Greaves is likely to post muted growth of 8% yoy. On the operating front, we expect our universe companies to report flat margins at ~12.3%. ABB is likely post a margin improvement of 345bp yoy due to fewer expected cost provisions. KEC International is likely to post a slight improvement of 52bp yoy because of increased contribution from SAE Towers. On the other hand, we expect Thermax to report a 115bp yoy dip in OPM to 11%. Similarly, BGR and Crompton Greaves are expected to report a margin dip of 44bp and 42bp yoy, respectively. The expected top-line growth of 17% yoy along with flat margins would result in ~13% yoy PAT growth for companies in our CG universe. ABB is likely to report robust profitability growth on a low base. KEC International is also expected to report strong PAT growth because of normalised tax rates compared to high tax incidence in 1QFY2011. BHEL and Jyoti Structures are likely to maintain steady growth.
Source: Company; Angel Research; Note: Price as on June 30, 2011; * December year ending
24
Cement
Demand slowdown continues in 1QFY2012
After registering low dispatch growth of 4.9% in FY2011 (vs. FY2004-10 CAGR of ~9.3%), cement demand continued to remain muted in the first two months of FY2012. During April-May 2011, all-India cement dispatches remained flat at 35.86mt (35.92mt in April-May 2010). There was no pick-up in demand in the southern region post the elections in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. The political situation continued to remain uncertain in Andhra Pradesh, resulting in low government expenditure on housing and infra projects. Some parts of the southern region were also affected due to non-availability of sand. Demand was muted in the northern region as well on account of moderate demand from the real estate segment. Major reasons for low demand in this region were labour shortage due to the harvest season and extremely hot weather conditions. In the eastern region, demand failed to pick-up post the elections in West Bengal. Demand pick-up was slow in the western and central regions as well because of low offtake from the real estate segment and labour shortage.
Price situation
All-India cement prices rose substantially since mid-February due to the production discipline adopted by cement manufacturers across the country, reaching their all-time highs in March 2011. However, cement prices across the country have begun to correct from the peaks of March 2011. Price corrections have been in the range of `10-30/ bag. Southern region: Price correction has been the lowest in the southern region at `5-10/ bag from March 2011 levels. Cement manufacturers have adopted a strong production discipline despite low capacity utilisation, thereby capping the price fall to a large extent. Currently, cement prices are at `280/bag. On an average, cement prices have remained flat when compared on a sequential basis. Northern region: In the northern region, prices are currently hovering at ~`275/bag, down by `15/bag from March 2011 levels. However, for 1QFY2012, on a sequential basis, prices were higher by `10/bag. Western region: The western region managed to hold on to the peak-level prices till May-end. However, prices have corrected since then. On an average, prices have corrected by `10-25 from March 2011 peak levels. The correction has been severe in Gujarat, which has seen a price decline of ~`100/bag. Currently, prices are at `255/bag in the western region. For 1QFY2012, on a sequential basis, prices in the region were higher by `5/bag. Eastern region: In the eastern region, prices are at `235/bag, down by `25/bag from March 2011 levels. For 1QFY2012 as a whole as well, prices were down on a sequential basis. Central region: Prices have declined the highest in the central region since March 2011. Prices in this region fell by ~`30/bag from March 2011 levels and are currently at `245/bag. On an average, prices during the quarter declined on a sequential basis.
(5.0) (10.0)
Performance of companies
During April-May 2011, among large players, ACC was the top performer with 14.1% yoy dispatch growth, aided by capacity additions at Bargarh and Chanda. JP Associates also reported 7.7% yoy growth in dispatches. However, dispatches of UltraTech Cement and Ambuja Cements declined by 3.9% yoy and 3.7% yoy, respectively.
Dec-10
May-11
Jun-10
Sep-10
Apr-10
Oct-10
Feb-11
Jul-10
25
Cement
All-India capacity to increase by 18mt in FY2012
In FY2011, all-India cement capacity stood at ~304mtpa. In FY2012, the country's cement capacity is expected to increase by ~18mt. Capacity addition for FY2012 could go up to 24mtpa, if JP Associates fully meets its capacity addition targets for the year. Capacity addition could be higher by another 3.3mtpa if ABG Group commissions its proposed plant during the year.
150 100 50 0
Dec -10 May-06 May-01 Mar-07 Aug-07 Nov-08 Mar-02 Aug-02 Nov-03 May-11 Dec -05 Dec -00 Feb -05 Jul-05 Feb -10 Jan-08 Jun-08 Sep-09 Jan-03 Feb -00 Jun-03 Sep-04 Jul-00 Oct-06 Oct-01 Apr-04 Apr-09 Jul-10
60 18 31 9 4 8 7
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Key developments
Industry: During the quarter, the Government of India ordered the Security Frauds Investigation Office (SFIO), Department of Corporate Affairs, to investigate the allegations of cartelisation amongst some of the cement manufacturers leading to unsubstantiated rise in prices. The investigation would cover the operations of the cement companies over the last 10 years. The allegations if proved would result in the imposition of severe penalties on cement manufacturers.The Competition Commission of India (CCI), formerly known as Monopolies and Restrictive Trade Practices Commission (MRTPC), which is yet another government agency, is also investigating the allegations of cartelisation. Cement manufacturers had come under the radar of government agencies even in the past. The MRTPC had carried similar investigations in 2007 as well into the activities of cement companies. Although there have been instances of cement manufacturers being penalised abroad, there are no such precedences in India.
26
Cement
1QFY2012 expectations
Top line to increase by 5.2%
We expect our cement universe to report 5.2% yoy growth in its top line, primarily on account of better realisations. However, dispatches are expected to decline by 3.3%. We expect India Cements to post the highest top-line growth of 16.5%. Operating margins to decline Operating margins of cement players are expected to decline on a yoy basis due to increased power and fuel costs. However, India Cements is expected to record a 579bp increase in margins due to substantially higher realisations. Exhibit 8: Margins to decline in 1QFY2012
Company (%)
3,856
4QFY11 chg bp (qoq) 24.2 28.4 18.4 18.8 27.1 24.2 (276) (455) (227) (78) (396) (171)
ACC*
3,600
(`/ton)
3,200
2,800
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Year ending December; ^Performance is computed on a like-to-like basis
8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 (2.0) ACC Ambuja Cem. India Cements JK Lakshmi Cem. Madras Cement Ultra Tech
(` cr)
Reco. Neutral Reduce Neutral Buy Neutral Neutral
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Price as on June 30, 2011; ^December year ending; # Estimates for merged entity
Analyst - V Srinivasan
Refer to important Disclosures at the end of the report
27
FMCG
For 1QFY2012, we expect our FMCG universe's revenue growth to be at ~19% due to 1) price hikes in most product categories by all companies, 2) higher consumer spending on non-food items and 3) no hike in central excise duty in Union Budget 20112012. We expect top-line growth to be a mix of value and volume, driven by better distribution reach, new product launches and significant uptick in advertising activities. However, we highlight that increasing competitive pressure in most categories (particularly home and personal care, noodles, energy drinks and juices) and high levels of food inflation are likely to keep operating margin under pressure. Prices of key raw materials are currently witnessing a downturn, and we expect the full effect of falling input prices to start to play by 2HFY2012.
30 25 20 15 10 5 20-Jun-07 11 8 17
(%)
Normal Rainfall
Defecient/ Scanty
However, agri commodities are expected to show a benign trend in case of normal monsoons. Prices of crude-based inputs tend to follow the decrease in crude oil prices with a lag. Hence, despite the currently prevailing benign input cost scenario, prices of crude-linked inputs are expected to decrease going ahead.
28
FMCG
Acquisitions continue in this quarter too
During 1QFY2012, Godrej Consumer (GCPL) continued its global shopping spree and entered into an agreement for the right to acquire 51% stake in Darling Group Holdings (DGH), a company that operates in 14 countries in the sub-Saharan African region. Darling Group is one of the largest players in the hair care category in Africa with brands such as Darling and Amigos, both market leaders in countries in which they are present. Darling Group manufactures and distributes full range of hair extension products in Africa. The acquisition will take place in three phases. In Phase I, GCPL will acquire operations of countries that contribute ~45% to Darling Group's revenue. The phase will be concluded in the next two months. In Phase II, which will be concluded in nearly 12 months from then, GCPL will be acquiring ~70% of the group's business. In Phase III, which will be after another 12 months, GCPL will have the rights to own 100% of the business through a combination of call and put options. Going forward, GCPL may acquire the remaining 49% equity stake in DGH in a period of 3-5 years, through a combination of put and call options. All the acquisitions are in line with the company's core strategy of 3x3 (focus on the three markets of Asia, Africa and Latin America on companies having a presence in the three categories of personal wash, hair care and home care). Similar to most of its past acquisitions, the current acquisition is also likely to add value to GCPL's shareholders. Dabur India acquired 30 Plus, an OTC energizer brand from Ajanta Pharma during the quarter. The acquisition of 30-Plus is part of the company's aggressive strategy to build capability in the OTC healthcare business. The quarter also witnessed a deal in which Jyothy Laboratories snapped a majority stake in Henkel India. The deal includes Henkel's entire portfolio, including Henko and Chek detergents, Pril dish cleaners and Fa deodorant, and rights to the multinational's future launches. Amongst the above-mentioned deals, rumours regarding P&G, Unilever and Colgate also surfaced. India; and Britannia launched Tiger Krunch Chocochips. Dabur India launched Hajmola Mint Masti and a hand sanitizer. Marico's Saffola Arise launched premium basmati rice under the brand Basmati Gold. According to the company, the rice is 100% natural and its pure goodness would nurture the health of consumers. Kurkure launched three new products under the Ingredients of India range. The variants include Mumbai Chatpata Usal, Bengali Jhaal and South Spice Mix. ITC's Fiama Di Wills forayed into the men's grooming segment. Cadbury-Kraft Foods introduced refreshing Tang for children. Perfetti Van Melle India, market leader in the Indian confectionery industry with brands such as Alpenliebe, Center Fresh, Mentos and Happydent, announced its entry into the salty snacks business with the launch of STOP NOT range of snacks. Del Monte launched Four Seasons Fusion drink. Mother Dairy introduced Paan and Rose flavoured kulfis. GRB Dairy Foods launched ice cream, ready-to-cook food, spice blends and sweets mix.
(3.1) 12.5 11.6 12.3 11.6 20.4 9.6 17.9 18.7 20.4 28.9 25.9
10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 5.0
29
FMCG
Growth across the board
For 1QFY2012, we expect our FMCG universe's revenue growth to be at ~19% (mix of value and volume) and earnings growth at ~18%. We expect margin expansion for HUL, ITC, Britannia, Nestle, Dabur and GCPL; whereas for Asian Paints, Colgate, GSK Consumer and Marico, we expect margin contraction. Sector leader, HUL is expected to report 14% top-line growth, despite high competitive intensity in the S&D segment. Earnings are expected to grow by robust 18% yoy, primarily due to operating margin expansion. ITC is expected to witness strong volume growth, as there was no hike in excise duty on cigarettes during Union Budget 2011-12. We expect ITC to register robust 18.2% yoy top-line growth and 22% yoy earnings growth, aided by recent price hikes in cigarettes, strong performance of non-cigarette FMCG and rebound in its hotels business. Britannia, Colgate, Dabur, GCPL, GSK Consumer, Marico and Nestle are expected to post impressive top-line growth.
(` cr) `
Reco. Neutral Neutral Reduce Neutral Neutral Reduce Neutral Neutral Reduce Reduce
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Price as on June 30, 2011; * December year ending; ^Consolidated
30
IRB Infra
MPL
JAL
NCC
SEL
However, on the earnings front, we expect a decline for most companies under our coverage universe, primarily on account of higher interest costs. For 1QFY2012, outperformers from the earnings point of view are JAL and SEL.
Simplex In.
CCCL
HCC
IVRCL
L&T
(73.8)
100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 (20.0) (40.0) (60.0) (80.0) (100.0)
1QFY2012 expectations
CCCL (CMP/TP: `31/) (Rating: Neutral)
Consolidated Construction Consortium (CCCL) is expected to post poor numbers for 1QFY2012. We expect mere 10.0% yoy top-line growth, given the slow-moving infra and commercial orders (41% of the order book). On the EBITDA front, we expect the company to register a dip of 237bp to 5.9% (8.3%), owing to low-margin orders (`1,150cr) in the final stages of completion and fixed price contracts in which rise in material prices is above the companys estimates, leading to margin pressure. Against this backdrop, the bottom line for the quarter is expected to (`17.9cr). decline by 57.1% yoy to `7.7cr (`17.9cr)
Infrastructure
during the quarter. We project net profit at `674cr, an increase 674cr, yoy, of mere 1.2% yoy, mainly on account of the expected margin compression. We believe the company would end the quarter with a total order inflow of `16,000cr (`15,626cr) for the quarter, which is good, even though it is lower than its yearly guidance of 15-20%, considering the overall gloomy macro environment on the order inflow front for the sector.
2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 L&T Sadbhav IRB Infra MPL JAL NCC Simplex In. CCCL HCC IVRCL
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Consolidated numbers for CCCL, IRB and Simplex Infra
32
Infrastructure
With high interest rates: The RBI, on June 16, 2011, had increased the repo rate by 25bp (as expected) from 7.25% to 7.50%, with a similar increase in the reverse repo rate from 6.25% to 6.50%. The RBI has raised policy rates for the tenth time in the last 15 months. This move, aiming to kill inflation, would come at the cost of growth and is very well acknowledged by the RBI. We believe this was not the last round of hikes, given that inflation is expected to remain high (with high global commodity prices and food prices). However, we believe that interest rates are nearing peak levels and 2HFY2012 is expected to better off on the interest and inflation fronts. Order awarding takes a backseat: There has been a considerable slowdown in order awarding activity across sectors on account of various factors (such as environment clearance, lack of stable leadership in various PSUs, state elections and land issues). The only silver lining has been pick-up of awarding activity in the last couple of months from NHAI's end, although it is leading to intense competition and creating doubts over the profitability of these projects. Earnings to remain under pressure: For FY2012, we expect a moderate show on the top-line front, while margins will continue to remain under pressure due to high commodity prices and inflationary pressures. Against this background, spiraling interest cost will lead to flat/lower performance on the earnings front for FY2012 despite the benefit of low base effect of FY2011.
Exhibit 4: HCC, MPL, Simplex and JAL most vulnerable to increased interest rates
Company CCCL HCC IRB Infra IVRCL JAL L&T MPL NCC SEL Simplex Infra
Source: Company; Angel Research
Chg. Chg. in earnings for FY12 (%) int. inc. further100bp if int. rate inc. by further100bp (8.0) (76.8) (10.5) (7.9) (13.7) (2.1) (21.1) (13.6) (3.2) (14.1)
Reco. Neutral Neutral Accum. Buy Buy Accum. Buy Buy Buy Buy
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Price as on June 30, 2011, Target prices are based on SOTP methodology; ^Consolidated numbers; #1QFY2011 numbers for JAL have been adjusted for the etraordinary gain of `410cr (net of tax) *(1) For CCCL, there are no major investments in subsidiary;(2) For HCC, value of Lavasa and Road BOT totals to `29.9/share; (3) For IRB, investments in BOT and real estate total to `81.1/share; (4) For IVRCL, value of IVRCL Assets and BOT projects totals to`26.7/share; (5) For JAL, no investments have been adjusted;(6) For L&T, investments in subsidiaries amount to `464/share. (7) For Madhucon Projects, Road BOT and other investments total to `47.0/share; (8) For Nagarjuna, value of land bank, BOT projects and investments totals to `33.1/share;(9) For SEL, its investments in BOT projects total to `73.5/share; (10) For Simplex Infra, there are no major investments in subsidiaries
33
Metals
In our view, the steel space will continue to face challenges amid near-term negatives like seasonal fall in demand and high raw-material costs. Globally, steel prices are expected to remain under pressure. For 2QFY2012, coking coal and iron ore contracts are expected to settle close to their peak levels of 1QFY2012 levels. Base metal prices are also likely to remain under pressure in the near term on demand concerns due to slowdown in growth, led by monetary tightening in China and escalating debt crisis in Europe. In 1QFY2012, the BSE Metal index underperformed the Sensex by 3.7% and fell by 6.8% in absolute terms. SAIL underperformed by 15.9% on reports of the FPO being delayed, while JSW Steel remained flat relative to the Sensex. However, Tata Steel outperformed by 1.2%. Relative to the Sensex, Nalco fell by 10.4%, led by concerns on coal supplies. Hindalco underperformed by 10.2% due to delay in expansion projects. However, Sterlite remained flat, while HZL outperformed by 2.1%. Coal India continued to outperform, gaining 16.1%, while Sesa Goa was flat. However, NMDC and MOIL underperformed by 7.0% and 12.2%, respectively. Tata Steel sells its stake in Riversdale Mining: During the quarter, Tata Steel sold its 26.3% stake in Riversdale Mining to Rio Tinto for A$1,060mn. However, the company will retain its current holding of 35.0% in Mozambique coking coal project, which will partially integrate its European operations. We believe the sale should aid in part-funding the company's ongoing expansion plans. Vedanta MoEF clears allegation on Vedanta Aluminium: After putting a ban on expansion plans at Vedanta Aluminium at Lanjigarh, Orissa, in 2010, the Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF) has cleared anti-pollution measures taken by the company following allegations of a crack in red mud pond, which resulted in leakage of red mud. Posco starts land acquisition process: After a long delay of five years, MoEF finally gave environment and forest clearance to Posco in May 2011 to build the US$12bn steel plant in Orissa with a series of conditions. Posco has started the land acquisition process but is facing stiff resistance from villagers. Power cuts in China: China is facing severe power crisis since 2004 due to low hydropower production, poor coal transportation and inadequate power transmission systems. While the government has raised power tariffs in a bid to improve the situation, we believe the situation could worsen if coal prices continue to rise. In the near term, the increase in power cost has supported aluminium prices at higher levels.
Ferrous sector
During the quarter, steel prices in India remained flat sequentially with a negative bias due to moderating growth, led by interest rate hikes. In 1QFY2012, average HRC prices in India were flat qoq at ~`39,000/tonne, though up by 6.1% yoy. World average HRC prices increased by 1.9% qoq to US$809/tonne (up 11.7% yoy), while average Chinese export prices were flat qoq at US$714/tonne, though up by 11.5% yoy. JSW Steel and Essar Steel hiked flat product prices by `600-1000/tonne in June (first time in FY2012), citing higher raw-material prices, whereas SAIL kept its prices unchanged at May levels.
Key events
Tata Steel closes Scunthrope plant in Europe: During the quarter, Tata Steel announced to close its Scunthrope plant (long products business) in Europe as the unit has been incurring losses for the last two years due to weak demand from the construction segment. As per Tata Steel, demand for structural steel in UK is only two-third of 2007 level and is not expected to fully recover within the next few years. The proposal is expected to cut 1,200 jobs at Scunthrope and 300 jobs at Teesside sites. We believe the closure will help the company in reducing its operating costs.
800 600 400 200 0 1QFY09 3QFY09 1QFY10 3QFY10 1QFY11 3QFY11 1QFY12
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research Refer to important Disclosures at the end of the report
34
Metals
Exhibit 3: Domestic HRC prices flat qoq
45,000 40,000 35,000
(mn tonnes)
30,000
(`/tonne)
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Raw-material Raw-material prices trading near peak levels: Following the floods in Australia in January 2011, which led to significant supply shortages resulting in substantially higher coking coal prices, 2QFY2012 benchmark coking coal contracts are also settled at higher levels of US$315/tonne (US$330/tonne for 1QFY2012). Additionally, if the workers' strike at BHP Billiton continues, significant supply pressures in the near term may be witnessed. However, coking coal prices are expected to moderate in 2HFY2012, but the pace would depend on how operations in Australia normalise and normalcy in supply is restored. In case of iron ore negotiations, media reports suggest that 2QFY2012 contracts are likely to settle at 1QFY2012 levels. During the quarter, average spot iron ore prices for 63% Fe grade (CFR, China) were flat qoq at US$181/tonne (up 9.2% yoy).
Outlook
Raw-material Raw-material cost pressure to persist: We expect raw-material prices to remain volatile as a result of floods in Australia and low supplies of iron ore from India. However, softer demand from China is expected to keep further increases in iron ore price muted. Moreover, coking coal prices may decline as the flood situation in Australia normalises and normalcy in supply is restored. According to World Steel, global crude steel production for April and May was higher by 5.0% and 4.2% yoy to 127mn tonnes and 130mn tonnes, respectively. Global capacity utilisation levels are estimated to have remained flat at 81% in 1QFY2012. Given that steel production and raw-material prices are at elevated levels, we expect steel prices to remain under pressure, thereby leading to margin pressure in the near term. 1QFY2012 expectations: For 1QFY2012, on a yoy basis, we expect sales volume to increase, aided by higher realisations. Thus, we expect the top line of all the companies under our coverage to grow by 4-35% yoy. However, due to relatively higher raw-material costs, margins of steel companies are likely to contract by 300-370bp yoy. For Sesa Goa, iron ore sales volume is likely to be negatively affected and, thus, we expect flat top-line growth on a yoy basis. We remain positive on Tata Steel and JSW Steel.
105 90 75 60 45 30 15 0
(mn tonnes)
120 90 60 30 0 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11
Iron ore inventory (RHS) Indian Iron ore 63% Fe, CFR China (LHS)
Karnataka Iron ore exports from Karnataka yet to resume: Following an order of the Supreme Court on April 5, 2011, to lift the export ban on iron ore, the Karnataka government is likely to resume iron ore exports by July 2011, as the government is working on a mechanism (infrastructure such as checkpoints and satellite tracking systems) to check illegal mining. As per Federation of Indian Mineral Industries, iron ore exports from India have declined by ~18% to 85.4mn tonnes during April 2010-February 2011 on account of export ban in Karnataka and increased export duty. In May 2011, Indian iron ore exports to China fell by 35% yoy to 6.8mn tonnes. Total iron ore exports to China for April-May 2011 fell by 32.4% yoy to 15.8mn tonnes.
Refer to important Disclosures at the end of the report
Non-ferrous sector
During the quarter, base metal prices witnessed a mixed trend sequentially as concerns over the slowdown in economic growth and Greek default intensified. The sector also suffered due to hike in interest rates and bank reserve requirements by China. On a sequential basis, average aluminium and alumina prices on LME increased by 4-5%, while copper, zinc and lead prices declined by 2-6%. On a yoy basis, copper, aluminium, alumina, zinc and lead increased by 11-31% with copper and lead gaining 30.5% and 31.0%, respectively.
35
Metals
Exhibit 6: Average base metal prices (US$/tonne)
1QFY12 Copper Aluminium Alumina Zinc Lead 9,147 2,600 408 2,251 2,548 1QFY11 7,011 2,092 335 2,020 1,945 yoy % 30.5 24.3 21.8 11.4 31.0 4QFY11 9,633 2,506 388 2,394 2,602 qoq % (5.0) 3.8 5.1 (6.0) (2.1)
Outlook
Though base metal prices are likely to remain under pressure in the near term due to concerns on growth, long-term demand-supply fundamentals remain intact for some metals. The copper market is struggling with supply constraints, while the downside for aluminium prices is capped due to high energy cost. However, zinc and lead prices are unlikely to see any major upside as the market remains in surplus. For 1QFY2012, we expect non-ferrous companies to register positive top-line growth of 18-72%, owing to a surge in LME prices. HZL and Sterlite are expected to report yoy margin expansion of 599bp and 350bp, respectively. However, Nalco and Hindalco are expected to witness a yoy margin contraction of 488bp and 136bp, respectively, on account of higher operating cost. We remain positive on Sterlite and Hindalco.
On a yoy basis, inventory levels at LME warehouse for copper and aluminium increased by 3.1% and 1.6%, respectively. Inventory levels for zinc and lead were higher by 40.7% and 69.8%, respectively. However, on YTD basis, copper, aluminium, zinc and lead inventory increased by 23.2%, 5.2%, 23.1% and 53.8%, respectively.
Mar-11
Lead
Jun-11
Copper
Aluminium
cr ( ` cr )
Reco. Neutral Buy Buy Buy Reduce Reduce Buy Buy Buy Buy
358 Accumulate
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Price as on June 30, 2011; EPS calculation based on fully diluted equity; * Denotes consolidated numbers
36
110 100 90 80 70 60 50
Aug-10 Aug-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Sep-10 Feb-11 Nov-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Jun-10 Jul-10 Mar-11 Jul-10 Mar-11 Oct-10 Jun-11 Oct-10 Jan-11 Jan-11 Jan-11 Apr-11 Apr-11 May-11 May-11 Jun-11
OPEC oil supply started improving in April-May 2011 after a gradual fall in February-March 2011 as supply concerns in MENA countries eased.
30 30 29 29 28 28 27
Aug-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Sep-10 Oct-10 Jun-10 Jan-11 Jul-10 Mar-11 Apr-11
(US $/mmbtu)
4 3
2
Jul-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Sep-10 Feb-11 Aug-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Dec-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Jun-10 Mar-11 Mar-11 May-11 May-11 Oct-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Jan-11 Apr-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Jun-11 Jun-11
37
375,000
(000s barels)
350,000
325,000
300,000
Jul-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 Jun-11
from 5%; whereas on the petrol and diesel front, the revised customs duty will stand at 2.5% from 7.5% earlier. This will result in a loss of `26,000cr to the exchequer. Excise duty on diesel has also been reduced by `2.6/litre to `2/litre, resulting in a loss of `23,000cr to the exchequer. Thus, the duty cuts will cost the exchequer a whopping `49,000cr. We believe the steps taken by the government are per se in the right direction as they provide more clarity on the way ballooning under recoveries will be financed.
(000s barrels)
225,000
200,000
175,000
Aug-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Dec -10 Feb -11 Mar-11 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-10
Key developments
Goverment hikes fuel prices, cuts duties to tame mounting under recoveries
In a meeting held on June 24, 2011, the Empowered Group of Ministers (EGoM) took bold steps on the country's retail fuel pricing after a long wait of one year. As expected, the government not only hiked prices but also re-jigged the duty structure. Hence, it was an all-round effort to help the cash-starved bleeding OMCs. On the price hike front, the government hiked diesel price by `3/litre; whereas the price of cooking fuels, LPG and kerosene, was increased by `50/cylinder and `2/litre, respectively. The resultant price hikes will help reduce under recoveries of OMCs by around `21,000cr. Further, to reduce the burden of under recoveries on OMCs, the government lowered the customs duty on crude oil to nil
38
1QFY2012 expectations
ONGC is expected to report higher net realisations for the quarter on account of increased crude price and the government's decision to cap the upstream companies' subsidy burden for 1QFY2012 at 33% of under recoveries compared to 38.7% in FY2011. Consequently, we expect a sequential increase of 40% in ONGC's bottom line during the quarter. On a yoy basis as well, we expect an increase of 6.6% in ONGC's bottom line. RIL is expected to report higher GRM qoq at around US$11/bbl (US$9.2/bbl in 4QFY2011). Higher demand for diesel and SKO consequent to the earthquake in Japan resulted in a spurt in petro cracks in Asian benchmark indices. It could also be attributed to a wider heavy-light crude oil spread. Consequent to the same, we expect RIL's profitability for the quarter to increase by 4.4% sequentially, despite lower gas production. On a yoy basis as well, we expect RIL's profit to increase by 15.7%. Cairn, Cairn being highly leveraged to crude oil, is expected to benefit the most from the ~13% spurt in crude price sequentially. Production from MBA fields is expected to be higher qoq as there was production shutdown in the previous quarter. GAIL is expected to report flat transmission volumes qoq. Higher transmission tariff and lower subsidy burden on a sequential basis is expected to result in GAIL registering a robust 20% qoq increase in profit during the quarter. On a yoy basis, GAIL is expected to report modest growth of 6% yoy.
(%)
PLNG
GGAS
ONGC
GUJS
Cairn
IGL
GAIL
RIL
(` cr) `
Reco. Neutral Buy Buy Buy
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Price as on June 30, 2011; ^Standalone numbers for the quarter and consolidated numbers for full year
39
Pharmaceutical
Pharma sector bounces back strongly
The BSE healthcare (HC) index outperformed the BSE Sensex during 1QFY2012, after having underperformed in 4QFY2011. The HC index rose by 6.2% as against the drop in Sensex in the same period. The performance of the pharmaceutical sector was impacted by lacklustre performance of the broader indices, which reeled under the slowdown in economic growth and hardening of interest rates. In such a scenario, the pharmaceutical sector, which is never affected by the economic slowdown, emerged as a resilient sector and outperformed the broader indices. However, the regulator issued the warning letter dated June 3, 2011, citing 'lack of corrective actions' by the firm. With 4% contribution to the consolidated sales of FY2011 and ANDA filed with reference to DMF from the plant, we believe the warning letter would have a minor impact on the company's financial performance. We maintain our Buy recommendation on DRL with a target price of `1,920. APL has indicated that it has received the warning letter from the USFDA, detailing its observations for its Unit VI, for which the company has already received the warning letter. Also, based on a field alert report for packaging and labeling compliance for Unit III, the USFDA has asked APL to submit a detailed action plan for improvement in this letter, which is required to be submitted within 15 working days, and has given the opportunity to APL for a regulatory meeting. Unit III contributes approximately US$140mn to APL's total sales. We believe, even in the worst-case scenario, the stock would be fairly valued at these levels. APL is requesting the USFDA for the meeting date and is in the process of submitting a detailed action plan. Although this is a move towards the much-awaited clarity needed on the USFDA's ban, there is still nothing concrete that can be inferred from the same. In terms of the developments for Unit III, we believe there are packaging compliance issues, which have a high probability of getting resolved. Hence, we currently maintain our estimates and recommend Buy on APL with a target price of `278.
4QFY2011
1QFY2012
The upward rally during the quarter was mainly driven by large caps. Ranbaxy rose by 22%, led by positive news flow on Lipitor. With regards to other major players, Cadila, Sun Pharma and Lupin were the big gainers, rising by 16%, 12% and 8%, respectively. In mid caps, Ipca was up by 13%. In the MNC pack, Glaxo was up by 12%. Amongst losers, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRL) and Aurobindo Pharma (APL) dropped by 6% and 12%, respectively, which declined because of USFDAs import alert. Despite good quarterly numbers in 4QFY2011, Dishman was hammered, down 12%. Among small caps, Indoco Remedies lost 4% during 1QFY2012.
Key developments
Indian companies remain on USFDA's warning list
After Ranbaxy, Lupin and Sun Pharma, DRL and APL have now received the USFDA's warning letters. DRL's Mexican arm has received a warning letter from the US health regulator for violation of the current good manufacturing practice regulations. The company's Mexico facility produces intermediates and active pharmaceutical ingredients. The USFDA had inspected DRL's Mexico facility in November 2010 and later sought certain explanations from the company.
40
Pharmaceutical
was premature and the agency's enforcement discretion was not reviewable by a court. It also indicated that drug makers cannot sue over pending applications filed by their competitors. The news is positive for Ranbaxy, and since the company is awaiting clarity on the ongoing litigation, we retain our numbers. The stock is currently trading at 18.7x and 12.0x its CY2011E respectively. We and CY2012E earnings, respectively. We recommend Accumulate with a target price of `588. 588.
Sun and MSD enter strategic partnership to co-market MSD's diabetes drugs
During the quarter, Sun Pharma and MSD in India announced the formation of a strategic partnership agreement for the Indian market. Under the agreement, Sun Pharma would have the right to market, promote and distribute MSD's diabetes products, sitagliptin and sitagliptin plus metformin, under different brand names in India. MSD would provide the scientific excellence and market success of the product to the partnership, while Sun Pharma would bring in its proven success and expertise in the marketing of drugs in the relevant therapeutic areas across India. The stock is currently trading at 27.7x and 21.1x its FY2012E and FY2013E earnings, respectively. After the recent run-up we are Neutral on the stock.
5 1
15.2
Ranbaxy
DRL
41
Pharmaceutical
formulation sales during the period. On the domestic front, Indian formulation sales are expected to report a muted performance. Despite strong top-line growth on account of the integration, the company's operating profit margin would decline by 13.4% yoy, with margin likely to be around 30.7%. Net profit is expected to drop by 23.6% yoy for the quarter. Lupin, on the other hand, is expected to register sales growth of 17.0% yoy. The company's OPM is expected to contract by 188bp during the period. Net profit is expected to increase by 3.8% yoy. DRL is expected to post strong results with top-line growth of 10.0% to `1,851cr, majorly driven by the US market. The company is expected to witness strong traction in its Indian and Russian formulation businesses as well. In the PSAI segment, lacklustre performance is expected for 1QFY2012. The company is expected to post OPM of 15.2%, up 71bp yoy. On the net profit front, we expect the company to post net profit of `245cr, registering growth of 16.9% yoy. Cipla is expected to post net sales growth of 15.5% yoy to `1,649cr, driven by domestic as well as exports performance. OPM (excluding technical know-how fees) is expected to come in flat at 20.8% due to lower other expenses. Further, net profit is expected to increase by 9.3% yoy to `281.5cr. Ranbaxy's net sales are expected to remain flat at `2,143cr during 2QCY2011. The company's gross profit margin is expected to remain flat, leading to margin of 17.4%. Cadila is expected to post yet another strong quarter with 20.5% yoy growth in net sales to `1,280cr on the back of robust growth on the domestic formulation and exports fronts. The company's OPM is expected to expand by 128bp yoy to 20.7% due to a favourable product mix. Net profit of the company is expected to increase by 35.6% yoy to `179.0cr, driven by top-line growth and OPM expansion.
(` cr) `
OPM (%) chg bp 253 (0) 128 (13) (452) 71 (180) 60 (137) (188) 0 (1,336) Profit Net Profit 1QFY12E 117.9 53.0 179.0 281.5 14.7 245.0 154.4 16.1 82.8 203.8 50.3 258.9 431.2 26.3 25.1 35.6 9.3 (46.0) 16.9 10.6 8.8 27.1 3.8 (24.2) (23.6) (` EPS (`) % chg 22.5 25.1 35.6 9.3 (46.0) 16.9 10.6 8.8 27.1 3.8 (24.2) (23.6) FY11 20.2 67.3 33.8 12.0 9.9 63.8 66.2 41.5 20.9 19.3 22.2 35.5 17.5 4.1 23.1 8.8 3.5 1.8 14.6 18.2 13.2 6.6 4.6 7.2 6.2 4.2 (` EPS (`) FY12E 20.2 85.5 38.6 15.2 9.3 87.9 72.0 53.3 20.0 22.4 28.4 29.1 18.0 FY13E 21.9 89.7 52.6 18.9 11.1 96.0 86.9 66.5 27.5 29.7 37.3 44.8 23.5 FY11 8.6 30.5 27.2 27.4 9.1 24.0 35.6 10.4 16.4 23.3 12.2 15.2 28.3 P/E (x) FY12E 8.6 24.0 23.8 21.6 9.7 17.4 32.7 8.1 17.1 20.1 9.6 18.6 27.7 FY13E 7.9 22.9 17.5 17.5 8.1 16.0 27.1 6.5 12.4 15.1 7.3 12.1 21.1 arg Target (`) 278 1,053 377 133 1,920 665 593 373 588 Buy Neutral Buy Buy Buy Buy Neutral Buy Neutral Buy Buy Accum. Neutral Reco. % chg 1QFY12E 17.6 16.0 20.7 20.8 17.5 15.2 34.7 16.4 20.8 18.1 22.1 17.4 30.7
CMP (`) 173 2,052 919 330 90 1,533 2,354 430 342 449 271 497
Net Sales 1QFY12E 967 299 1,280 1,649 227 1,851 563 135 603 1,543 500 2,143 1,894 9.5 10.3 20.5 15.5 12.5 10.0 13.0 21.1 17.2 17.0 2.1 35.3
% chg 1QFY12E
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Our numbers do not include MTM on foreign debt. #2QCY2011 ,* Non-availability of 1QFY2011 consolidated numbers
42
Power
For 1QFY2012, we expect power-generating companies in our universe to report top-line growth of 16.4% yoy, driven by capacity additions and higher tariffs. The operating profit of companies in our universe is expected to increase by 15.2% yoy. Net profit is expected to increase by 12.7% yoy.
Operational highlights
During 2MFY2012, power generation in India rose by 8.5% yoy to 146BU (135BU). Overall, the country's thermal power generation rose by 6.5% yoy to 120.5BU. The plant load factor (PLF) of thermal plants for 2MFY2012 stood at 78.4%, higher by 646bp than the targeted 71.94%. Hydro power generation increased by 12.7% yoy to 20.2BU, while nuclear power generated grew substantially by 54.7% yoy to 5.4BU during the mentioned period.
Power-deficit situation
The country continues to face power deficit due to the delay in commissioning of new capacities, fuel shortage and deficiencies in the T&D system. India's overall and peak power-deficit levels during 2MFY2012 stood at 7.2% and 9.3%, respectively, lower than 13.0% and 13.8% reported in 2MFY2011. Exhibit 3: India Power-deficit scenario
18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 12.2 8.8 7.1 7.3 11.2 11.7 12.3 9.6 8.4 9.9 13.8 12.0 11.0 12.7 10.1 9.8 8.5 9.3 7.2 16.6
60
(MW)
(%)
A as a % of T (RHS)
Transmission lines
During 2MFY2012, 706 circuit kilometers (ckm) were added to the 400kV transmission lines, as against the targeted 813ckm. Total addition to the 220kV transmission line categories stood at 309ckm, as against the targeted 197ckm.
Overall
Peak
Transmission sub-stations
During 2MFY2012, total addition to the 220kV sub-station category stood at 980MW, as against the targeted 640MW.
2MFY12
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
43
Power
Exhibit 4: Region-wise power deficit (2MFY2012)
Region (%) Northern Western Southern Eastern Northeastern All India Source: CEA, Angel Research Overall (4.9) (11.1) (5.8) (4.5) (10.4) (7.2) Peak (7.9) (14.8) (7.2) (6.3) (10.3) (9.3)
Recently, the Indonesian government has set a September 2011 deadline, by which coal export contracts should be re-negotiated if contract prices are below the market price. If this rule comes into effect, then the cost of imported coal would be based on a reference price, which would be published by the Indonesian government every month. The reference price would be the basis for computation of royalty and taxes. This rule, when it takes effect, will substantially increase the cost of imported coal and would significantly affect the profitability of power players if they could not modify their PPAs to pass on the price hikes using the force majeure clause. The Association of Power Producers, a body of private power generators, has already moved the Ministry of Power for a change in the PPA clause.
Key developments
NTPC
NTPC commissioned the 660MW Unit 1 of Sipat Super Thermal Power Project on June 28, 2011. With this, the total capacity of NTPC Group now stands at 34,854MW. This is the first supercritical 660MW unit of NTPC. With the commissioning of this unit, the total installed capacity of Sipat Super Thermal Power Project has become 1,660MW. During the quarter, the Ministry of Coal de-allocated five coal blocks, which were previously allotted due to lack of the progress in development work. All these coal blocks were allocated on June 25, 2006. Coal blocks that have been de-allocated are Chhati-bariatu, Kerandari, Chhati-bariatu (south), Brahmini and Chichro Pastimal.
150 100 50 0
Dec-10 May-06 May-01 Mar-07 Aug-07 Nov-08 Mar-02 Aug-02 Nov-03 May-11 Dec-05 Dec-00 Feb -05 Jul-05 Feb -10 Jan-08 Jun-08 Sep-09 Jan-03 Feb -00 Jun-03 Sep-04 Jul-00 Oct-06 Oct-01 Apr-04 Apr-09 Jul-10
CESC
CESC has entered into a deal with Australia's Resource Generation (R-Gen) to buy a 4.8% stake in the latter for A$10mn. The acquisition has been done through CESC's subsidiary, Bantal Singapore Pte. Ltd., which has agreed to buy 12,195,122 shares of R-Gen at A$0.82 per share. Post this acquisition, RPG Group's (promoter of CESC) stake in R-Gen has increased to 11.2%. This deal also entails Integrated Coal Mining (another affiliate of RPG) to get 139mn tonnes of coal over 38 years from R-Gen's Boikarabelo mines in South Africa from late CY2013 when mining starts in these mines. CESC is exploring a possibility to set up a 2x660MW coal-fired plant adjacent to Boikarabelo mines to utilise a portion of the coal. CESC proposes to supply this power to the South African grid.
44
Power
Adani Power
During the quarter, Adani Power became the largest private sector thermal power generator in the country. The company synchronised the second supercritical unit of 660MW at Mundra, taking its overall capacity to 2,640MW. The company expects to have 6,000MW operational by the end of FY2012, out of the 16,500MW under development. CESC is expected to register 8.6% yoy growth in its standalone top line to `1,191cr, aided by higher sales volume and better realisation. OPM is expected to decline by 36bp yoy to 23.0%, while net profit would increase by 14.1% yoy to `125cr during 1QFY2012. We expect GIPCL to register a 41.3% yoy increase in revenue in 1QFY2012, primarily on the back of higher volumes. Commissioning of Unit 3 and 4 in Surat is expected to aid volume growth. OPM is set to expand by 194bp to 27.3%. However, the bottom line is expected to decline by 29.4% yoy to `29.6cr in 1QFY2012 on account of higher depreciation and interest costs. We expect PTC to record a 2.9% yoy jump in its standalone top line to `2,839cr, aided by higher volumes. We expect the company's operating margin to expand by 16bp yoy to 1.2% on account of better trading margins. Net profit for the quarter is expected to increase by 17.2% yoy to `32.6cr.
JSW Energy
JSW Energy has terminated its plans to acquire CIC Energy Indonesia, as the required due diligence cannot be completed before the deadline of May 31.
Outlook
We expect capacity addition to gather pace by the end of the Eleventh Plan in FY2012. However, the country's power-deficit scenario is likely to persist, as supply is unlikely to keep pace with demand. The poor financial position of State Electricity Boards (SEB) remains a major cause of concern for the industry. Although there have been no reported instances of non-repayment of dues by state utilities to generating companies, there have been instances of delayed payments. Poor financials have also resulted in increasing cases of backing down by state utilities. State utilities are averse to buying merchant power, which has resulted in merchant power tariffs plummeting by ~50% from FY2009 levels. In this scenario, players with fuel security and assured power offtake through PPAs are safer bets as compared to merchant power players. We maintain our Accumulate recommendation on NTPC and Buy view on CESC and GIPCL .
1QFY2012 expectations
For 1QFY2012, we expect NTPC to record a 16.6% yoy increase in its top line to `15,094cr, aided by volume growth due to the commencement of new capacities. Operating profit is expected to increase by 15.1% yoy to `3,849cr. Net profit is expected to increase by 13.5% yoy to `2,091cr.
(` cr) `
Reco. Buy Buy Accumulate Neutral
V. Analyst - V. Srinivasan
Refer to important Disclosures at the end of the report
45
Real Estate
For 1QFY2012, we expect residential volumes to report flat to moderate growth on a sequential basis on account of weak demand due to high interest rates and elevated property prices. Revenue of real estate companies is expected to be largely driven by execution of existing projects and new launches, though execution delays remain a cause of concern. Companies such as DLF and Unitech (through UCP) are expected to continue to see sustainability in office-leasing volumes on a sequential basis. Accordingly, we believe commercial rentals have bottomed out, and we do not foresee any material uptick until inventory levels come down. In our universe of stocks, we expect HDIL to report flat growth in Transfer of Development Rights (TDR) volumes and prices, given low inventory of TDRs left on account of earlier stoppage of the MIAL project, which has re-started and, thus, we expect TDR sales volume to increase in the coming quarters. HDIL is also expected to continue to book partial revenue from the 2mn sq. ft. (msf) FSI sale (worth ~`1,400cr) in 1QFY2012. DLF's revenue is expected to be largely driven by the sale of plotted properties in Gurgaon. For ARIL, we expect revenue to be driven by the residential segment and rental income. interest rates may compel buyers to postpone their purchases or investments in new houses. With increasing input cost and demand failing to pick up, we expect execution delays for many new as well as old properties. We also believe that cost escalation will impact margins over the coming quarters; however, margins will improve once revenue from new projects increases.
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
48.3
33.9
20 10 0 (10)
Revenue
ARIL DLF HDIL
(0.8) PAT
1QFY12
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
46
Real Estate
`2,400/sq. ft. (i.e. 20% discount to current levels of `3,000/sq. ft.) for arriving at our target price and do not expect any negative impact incrementally. We have assumed 4.5msf of TDR sale for FY2012 to factor in the hike in FSI. It should be noted that a 10% decline in TDR prices would impact our NAV by mere 3% and target price by 2.3%. Given the delay in shifting of families, we have excluded 10msf (potential 65 acres), which HDIL is expected to get at the airport vicinity as it rehabilitates 85,000 families. Overall, we expect the share of TDR sales in HDIL's revenue mix to fall from 60% in FY2011 to 30% in FY2012. appreciation across most micro markets. Industry participants have indicated that the surge in leasing enquiries has come on the back of renewed interest shown by corporates. In 1QFY2012, commercial area in Mumbai witnessed a 12-month high with 1.84msf of area leased out. Of this, the financial sector was the major contributor with a share of 40%. We expect demand for office space to start picking up from 2HCY2011 as we expect 20% net employee addition in the IT/ITES sector over FY2011-13. Cushman and Wakefield estimates cumulative pan-India demand for office space during CY2009-13 to be 196msf. Exhibit 3: Pan-India commercial demand
60 50
(mn sq. ft.)
47
Real Estate
Sensex vs. realty stocks
During 1QFY2012, the BSE realty index widely underperformed the Sensex by 1,049bp on the back of 1) corporate governance, 2) restricted credit flow to the sector and 3) the expected increase in cost of funding for future projects. Moreover, the RBI's measures to tighten liquidity and curb speculative demand by increasing LTV and risk weight on teaser loans have further dampened stocks performance. However, we believe the recent correction gives a good entry opportunity on account of 1) companies trading at a significant discount to our one-year forward NAV, 2) stability in volumes and 3) comfortable balance sheet position unlike that in 2008. We believe HDIL, Oberoi Realty and ARIL are best placed in the sector.
(3.0)
(12.3)
BSEREAL Index
SENSEX Index
(` cr) `
Reco.
48
Software
Demand landscape remains unscathed
The demand environment cited by most tier-I IT companies in terms of 1) positive client budgets for CY2011 across industries (expect telecom, which is expected to be flat) and with a higher component of offshoring; 2) like-to-like pricing increase in some of the deals as well as clients willing to compensate for cost of living adjustment (COLA); 3) upbeat gross hiring guidance for FY2012 by Infosys and TCS of 45,000 and 60,000, respectively; 4) robust revenue growth guidance by Infosys (18-20% yoy) and Cognizant (at least 29% yoy); 5) global major Accenture (August year ending) raising revenue growth guidance from 8-11% yoy in 1QFY2011 to 11-14% yoy in 2QFY2011 and then to 14-15% yoy in 3QFY2011; and 6) uptick in new license sales by Oracle envisage a strong demand environment for IT spending.
5 0 (5) (10)
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
Infosys
TCS
Wipro
HCL Tech
For the retail and CPG segment, IT spend continues to grow on multi-channel integration to encash on the digital consumer behaviour. Also, retail clients are spending on digital marketing and mobile and social technology to provide multi-channel experience, retail commerce and mobile marketing to increase digital consumer engagements. The manufacturing segment is also back with higher spend on IT, especially with industries such as hi-tech and semiconductor looking at immediate go-to-market strategies and, thus, spending on product engineering, supply-chain management and consulting to drive cost efficiencies. In the manufacturing segment, automotive and aerospace have also started spending on dealer management network, CRM applications, rationalising internal processes, setting up shared services, global launch and product engineering.
0 (5) (10)
1-May-11
1-Apr-11
16-Apr-11
15-Jun-11
16-May-11
31-May-11
30-Jun-11
(15)
4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11
BSE IT
Sensex (RHS)
Infosys
TCS
Wipro
HCL Tech
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research Refer to important Disclosures at the end of the report
4QFY11
49
Software
The energy and utilities vertical is gaining strong traction, especially for businesses relating to oil and gas, smart grid and safety, among others, mostly for cost-cutting measures. The telecom vertical is still a very soft spender and client budgets remain weak. This vertical was heavily impacted for Infosys and TCS due to one of their top clients, British Telecom, cutting back heavily on capex and downsizing operations. Managements of both the companies maintain that the client-specific issue is behind, and they foresee a slow recovery in the sector. We believe TSPs of matured markets will start spending to migrate to next-generation networks such as 4G to support the heavy voice and burgeoning data traffic. Service-wise Service -wise trends: Changed business needs of various industries have led to a surge in demand for discretionary services such as enterprise application services (EAS) and engineering and R&D (ERD) services. Investments in EAS mostly focus on simplifying internal processes and harmonising business processes across the enterprise to make organisations smarter and leaner primarily focusing on increasing efficiencies and reducing throughput. Even ERD services are witnessing a spurt in demand, with product companies getting aggressive and trying to launch a series of new products by shortening the go-to-market cycle. In addition, demand for ERD services is driven by increasing use of electronics, fuel efficiency norms, convergence of local markets and localised products.
1.3
1.4 1.1
0.8
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12E
Software
Exhibit 5: Trend in volume growth (qoq)
12 10 8
(%)
11.2
189 127 86 37 7 (0) (85) (121) (178) (237) (242) (270) 3QFY11
TCS Wipro*
120
7.2
2.9 1.5
BP(qoq)
4.8
(228) 4QFY11
HCL Tech
3QFY11
TCS HCL Tech
4QFY11
Wipro
1QFY12E
1QFY11
2QFY11
Infosys
1QFY12E
9.0 7.5 7.0 5.8 5.9 5.6 4.7 5.8 4.2 3.9 1.1 6.2 5.2
(%)
8 4.3
3.2 1.1
3QFY11
HCL Tech
4QFY11
Wipro
1QFY12E
( ` cr ) cr
Reco. Buy Buy Buy
1,337 Accumulate
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Price as on June 30, 2011; *June ending so 4QFY2011 estimates; ^October ending so 3QFY2011 estimates; Change is on a qoq basis
51
Telecom
During 1QFY2012, all telecom stocks (ex. RCom) gained, with Bharti Airtel (Bharti) and Idea pacing up by 10.0% and 21.0%, respectively. This was primarily due to strong subscriber net additions, positive MNP outcome and fading knee-jerk reaction towards the possible outcomes of National Telecom Policy 2011 due to recommendation regarding the re-pricing and re-framing of the spectrum and its charges.
6 4
0.49 3.8
6.4
(51.7) Rcom
Chg. (1 year)
Idea
As per the recent VLR data released for April 2011, out of the total 826.93mn subscribers, 583.22mn subscribers (70.5%) were active subscribers on the date of Peak VLR. Service provider wise, Idea leads the tally with a share of 92.92%, followed by Bharti with 89.51%, Vodafone with 80.78% and RCom with 63.64%, whereas Etisalat is at the bottom with 31.47%.
However, RCom underperformed significantly during the quarter, slipping by 12.9% because of the arrest of few of its senior officers along with the promoters of DB-Etisalat on account of their possible links in the 2G scam.
70 60 50 Bharti Vodafone
Jan-11
Idea
Feb-11
Rcom
Mar-11
BSNL
Apr-11
Aircel
Telecom
Thus, though the pace of subscriber addition sported by each of the companies remains at 2mn-2.5mn per month, additions made by Bharti and Idea are value additions, whereas for RCom it is more of a volume addition. Amongst unlisted companies, Vodafone is also part of the Bharti-Idea clan with higher RMS at 21.2% and SMS at 16.7%, whereas incumbents such as BSNL and Aircel are part of RCom's clan with SMS higher than RMS. New entrants, including Etisalat, Uninor, S Tel and Loop Mobile, grew at average rates of 15.9%, 5.5%, 5.9% and 0.6%, respectively, while Videocon declined at an average rate of 0.4% mom. Although subscriber base of all telecom players reported growth, net addition run rate slided steeply for every player in April-May 2011. Thus, a trend was spotted with most incumbents (Bharti, Vodafone, Idea and Aircel) maintaining their subscriber market share over March-May 2011, whereas RCom and BSNL lost their market shares slightly to 16.9% and 10.5% in May 2011 from 17.0% and 10.7% in March 2011, respectively.
31.1
21.2 16.7 13.9 11.1 10.7 8.2 8.3 4.8 6.8 17.0
20 15 10 5 0 Bharti
Vodafone
Idea
RMS
Rcom
SMS
BSNL
Aircel
Over March-May 2011, the Indian subscriber base grew at an average rate of 1.7% mom, led by incumbents such as Bharti, Vodafone and Idea. However, net subscriber addition numbers were the lowest in the last one year. Amongst incumbents, subscriber growth was led by Idea at 2.3% mom, followed by Aircel, Vodafone, Bharti, RCom and BSNL, which grew at an average rate of 2.0%, 1.8%, 1.5%, 1.5% and 0.7% mom, respectively.
(min)
398
415
394
401
397
397
241
241
200
3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11
4QFY11
Bharti (ex-Africa)
Idea
Rcom
15 13 11.2 11 11.0 9
3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11
4QFY11
Bharti (ex-Africa)
Idea
1QFY12E
1QFY12E
53
Telecom
ARPM to remain flat
ARPM has been following a declining trend over the past nine quarters due to entry of new players and the price war. However, the price war logged by these new entrants has turned into a curse for their own sustainability. The confidence in no further possibility of a price war was instilled by the rational pricing move made by various telecom players for 3G, i.e. no case of undercutting. Therefore, for 1QFY2012, we expect ARPM for Bharti (excluding Africa) to increase by 4.6% qoq to `0.45/min; however, for Idea and RCom, ARPM is expected to be stable on a qoq basis.
0.20 0.17 0.20 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.10 0.11 0.11
3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12E
0.17 0.17 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.10 0.11 0.10 0.13 0.13 0.11 0.16 0.14
0.17 0.17
0.13
0.10
0.10
(`/min)
0.50
Idea
Rcom
0.45
0.40
1QFY12E 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11
Bharti (ex-Africa)
Idea
Rcom
194 168
192 164
185 200
182
139
130
122
111
107
106
Bharti (ex-Africa)
Idea
Rcom
(` cr) `
Reco. Neutral Neutral Neutral
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Price as on June 30, 2011; Change is on a qoq basis
54
Stock Watch
55
Company Name
Reco
CMP (`) 3,367 2,985 7,076 1,922 3,945 6,472 638 40,681 7,211 21,512 364 183 13,740 1,984 37,499 394 41,183 33,479 8,751 186 63,356 2,548 9,372 7,507 53,068 34,139 22,641 23,226 8,024 7,785 3,021 7,724 116,718 125,937 13,396 9,139
Agri / Agri Chemical Bayer Cropscience Rallis India United Phosphorus Auto & Auto Ancillary
198
Amara Raja Batteries Apollo Tyres Ashok Leyland Automotive Axle^ Bajaj Auto Bharat Forge Bosch India* CEAT Denso Exide Industries FAG Bearings* Hero Honda JK Tyre Mahindra & Mahindra Maruti Motherson Sumi Subros Tata Motors TVS Motor Banking
Accumulate Buy Buy Neutral Accumulate Accumulate Neutral Buy Buy Accumulate Neutral Neutral Buy Buy Accumulate Accumulate Accumulate Accumulate Buy
225 78 49 422 1,406 310 6,851 106 66 162 1,194 1,878 96 701 1,158 226 31 994 54
257 93 60 1,610 351 135 98 172 133 804 1,314 247 35 1,100 62
Allahabad Bank Andhra Bank Axis Bank Bank of Baroda Bank of India Canara Bank Central Bank Corporation Bank Dena Bank Federal Bank HDFC Bank ICICI Bank IDBI Bank Indian Bank
Accumulate 197 Accumulate 134 Buy 1,289 Buy 872 Buy 414 Neutral 524 Reduce 124 Buy 526 Buy 91 Accumulate 452 Neutral 2,503 Buy 1,093 Neutral 136 Buy 213
222 145 1,650 1,017 498 112 640 106 483 1,355 255
56
Company Name
Reco
Accumulate Accumulate Buy Accumulate Accumulate Buy Buy Neutral Buy Accumulate Neutral Accumulate 18,565 6,141 3,240 100,183 16,628 1,772 697 2,075 2,356 7,076 17,841 20,590 2,181 538 1,932 25,582 573 1,938 5,740 4,046 1,864 17,192 112,069 651 2,086 1,036 2,433 4,722 2,901 5,103 6,275 15,860 53,705 2,069 5,856 3,272 2,946 5,485 3,995 7,100 7,494 18,708 66,161 2,632 6,939 3,587 6.4 12.6 42.9 24.5 9.2 24.5 12.0 10.2 9.3 12.7 7.3 12.6 38.3 21.6 9.4 24.4 12.0 9.9 9.7 13.1 2.6 0.8 11.0 24.0 6.2 5.1 68.3 7.5 5.8 15.5 8,913 8,463 3,896 1,529 3,033 18,351 10,160 9,617 4,394 1,717 3,467 20,704 20.6 23.2 13.4 15.9 21.8 20.9 21.0 23.3 16.5 15.8 21.4 21.1 54.9 7.6 4.8 6.1 7.9 69.7 62.2 8.4 8.8 7.2 10.5 80.4 4.2 1.3 14.5 29.7 8.2 6.8 82.5 8.7 7.6 23.0 17.3 17.6 14.8 7.2 10.3 13.4 12.2 39.7 15.7 8.7 11.2 15.8 26.7 11.7 14.0 9.5 15.3 16.0 8.1 6.1 7.7 11.6 7.4 24.1 11.9 7.0 8.5 11.9 22.1 10.1 10.6 6.4 7,443 4,564 5,252 50,647 11,029 1,721 2,830 5,398 2,350 6,197 8,675 5,320 5,719 59,389 12,867 2,053 3,259 6,418 2,883 7,173 9.4 10.2 11.0 19.8 13.4 22.9 11.0 11.0 14.2 10.7 9.5 10.7 11.0 19.8 13.9 25.6 11.0 11.3 14.3 10.7 20.3 8.9 44.5 133.6 15.3 11.9 12.6 9.5 179.3 37.5 23.6 11.9 48.1 156.5 18.7 15.4 15.3 12.8 231.7 43.4 43.2 28.8 10.1 15.3 17.0 7.6 6.7 8.3 11.7 15.9 37.2 21.6 9.3 13.1 13.9 5.9 5.6 6.2 9.0 13.7 6.7 5.3 2.7 4.1 4.1 1.1 0.9 1.8 2.4 4.2 2.5 2.5 0.6 0.5 1.0 2.1 0.9 1.3 2.1 1.6 0.9 1.7 4.3 1.0 0.8 0.7 5.8 4.4 2.3 3.4 3.3 0.9 0.8 1.4 2.0 3.4 2.3 2.3 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.8 0.8 1.3 1.8 1.4 0.8 1.5 3.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 16.6 19.7 30.0 28.9 26.8 14.6 16.8 24.2 22.9 29.6 15.2 15.2 4.3 7.0 10.3 16.7 7.3 3.2 14.2 20.6 8.1 11.0 17.5 8.5 6.1 7.2 16.8 22.1 26.8 27.2 26.3 17.2 15.3 26.0 24.7 27.3 15.5 15.2 7.8 7.7 12.4 16.7 11.2 5.3 16.5 21.2 9.8 13.1 18.1 9.2 7.6 9.9
CMP (`) 147 840 330 1,090 24 2,406 117 96 293 96 70 312 2.4 1.5 0.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.7 2.1 1.0 0.5 1.6 1.5 0.4 1.3 3.6 2.2 0.6 2.3 2.2 0.8 0.8 1.0
Target Price (`) 166 893 392 1,235 26 2,832 139 357 110 337
Mkt Cap (` cr) 9,086 4,073 9,614 34,520 2,706 152,778 6,733 6,005 15,352 3,317 3,285 10,859
Sales (` cr) FY12E FY13E 6,496 7,031 2,040 2,169 5,346 5,859 17,044 19,313 1,099 1,203 54,719 63,505 5,632 5,939 4,849 5,596 8,962 9,848 2,968 3,299 2,541 2,798 2,412 2,956
OPM (%) FY12E FY13E 2.7 2.4 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.5 3.3 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.4
EPS (`) FY12E FY13E 22.5 26.4 141.2 150.2 57.4 66.6 151.9 174.6 3.1 3.2 202.5 270.6 21.1 24.0 14.8 17.8 43.8 47.8 14.8 17.1 9.1 10.3 26.0 29.8
PER (x) FY12E FY13E 6.5 5.6 5.9 5.6 5.7 4.9 7.2 6.2 7.7 7.4 11.9 8.9 5.6 4.9 6.5 5.4 6.7 6.1 6.5 5.6 7.7 6.8 12.0 10.5
P/BV (x) FY12E FY13E 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.3 2.1 1.8 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 2.4 2.0
RoE (%) FY12E FY13E 16.0 16.6 18.3 17.0 15.4 15.8 21.9 21.3 19.2 17.3 19.7 22.6 17.0 17.0 16.8 17.6 19.2 18.1 13.5 14.0 12.4 12.8 21.6 20.6
EV/Sales (x) FY12E FY13E 2.1 1.3 0.6 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.8 0.8 0.4 1.3 1.2 0.4 1.2 3.0 2.1 0.6 1.9 1.8 0.8 0.8 0.9
Sell Neutral Buy Neutral Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Neutral
IOB J & K Bank Oriental Bank Punjab Natl.Bank South Ind.Bank St Bk of India Syndicate Bank UCO Bank Union Bank United Bank Vijaya Bank Yes Bank Capital Goods ABB* Areva* BGR Energy BHEL Crompton Greaves Graphite India Jyoti Structures KEC International LMW Thermax Cement ACC Ambuja Cements India Cements J K Lakshmi Cements Madras Cements UltraTech Cement Construction Consolidated Co Hind. Const. IRB Infra ITNL IVRCL Infra Jaiprakash Asso. Larsen & Toubro Madhucon Proj Nagarjuna Const. Patel Engg.
122 57 -
Neutral 31 Neutral 32 Accumulate 173 Buy 208 Buy 70 Buy 81 Accumulate 1,823 Buy 88 Buy 81 Neutral 148
57
Company Name 2,519 2,011 1,331 30,508 5,710 13,346 19,849 10,312 13,944 74,017 156,658 9,569 39,484 658 886 3,722 1,000 34,295 166,303 1,595 1,411 9,116 909 231,018 9,408 102,479 1,796 13,506 4,377 4,270 3,995 4,010 276 13,704
Reco
CMP (`)
76 134 268
161 404
Asian Paints Britannia Colgate Dabur India GlaxoSmith Con* Godrej Consumer HUL ITC Marico Nestle* Hotel
Neutral Neutral Reduce Neutral Reduce Neutral Neutral Neutral Reduce Reduce
3,181 478 981 114 2,452 431 343 202 156 4,095
Buy
105
140
Taj GVK IT 3i Infotech Educomp Everonn HCL Tech Infosys Infotech Enterprises KPIT Cummins Mphasis NIIT TCS Tech Mahindra Wipro Logistics and Shipping
Neutral 46 Buy 392 Accumulate 526 Buy 493 Buy 2,907 Neutral 144 Buy 173 Accumulate 435 Buy 55 Accumulate 1,180 Accumulate 721 Buy 418
360
58
Company Name
Reco
CMP (`) 9,311 247,854 921 492 57,569 34,724 19,688 5,612 3,210 21,339 101,100 884 56,793 764 24,521 56,476 58,387 59,111 55,972 5,004 5,008 5,338 234,377 10,174 293,857 5101 4849 18424 26648 739 26271 19987 524 4314 19887 1882 23029
Neutral Neutral Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Accumulate Accumulate Reduce Reduce Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy
439 392 29 155 136 181 882 334 499 83 255 66 138 213 282 168 609
37 225 158 242 1,024 358 533 77 241 96 191 253 385 216 799
Metal Bhushan Steel Coal India Electrosteel Castings Godawari Power Hind. Zinc Hindalco JSW Steel MOIL Monnet Ispat Nalco NMDC Prakash Ind. SAIL Sarda Energy Sesa Goa Sterlite Inds Tata Steel Oil & Gas Cairn GAIL GSPL Gujarat Gas IGL ONGC Petronet LNG RIL Pharmaceuticals Aurobindo Pharma# Aventis* Cadila Healthcare Cipla Dishman Pharma Dr Reddy's GSK Pharma* Indoco Remedies Ipca labs Lupin Orchid Chemicals Ranbaxy*
Buy Neutral Buy Buy Buy Buy Neutral Buy Neutral Buy Buy Accumulate
173 2052 919 330 90 1533 2354 430 342 449 271 541
59
Company Name 51469 3,747 1,150 154,067 2,342 1,874 35,742 6,628 150,057 26,333 19,752 2,388 1,620 1,612 2,690 4,929 708 464 2,120 4,932 389 1,334 366
Reco
CMP (`)
Neutral
497
Sun Pharmaceuticals Power CESC GIPCL NTPC PTC India Real Estate
298 76 187 79
380 94 202 -
64 210 160
105 200
395 80 96
Bajaj Electrical Bajaj Hindusthan ^ Balrampur Chini Blue Star CRISIL Finolex Cables Greenply Page Industries Sintex Siyaram Silk Mills SpiceJet Surya Roshni
Neutral 240 Neutral 71 Neutral 63 Buy 299 Accumulate 6,942 Buy 46 Buy 192 Neutral 1,901 Buy 181 Neutral 415 Neutral 33 Buy 84
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: ^Sept. year end; *December year end; Price as on June 30, 2011; #EPS for Aurobindo Pharma is on recurring basis
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Disclaimer
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Ratings (Returns) :
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Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302
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