World Urbanization Prospects 2009 Revision (United Nations 2010)

E c o n o m i c
& S o c i a l A f f a i r s
World Urbanization Prospects The 2009 Revision

Highlights
United Nations
New York
ESA/P/WP/215 March 2010 English only
Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division
World Urbanization Prospects The 2009 Revision

Highlights
United Nations New York, 2010
DESA
The Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat is a vital interface between global policies in the economic, social and environmental spheres and national action. The Department works in three main interlinked areas: (i) it compiles, generates and analyses a wide range of economic, social and environmental data and information on which States Members of the United Nations draw to review common problems and take stock of policy options; (ii) it facilitates the negotiations of Member States in many intergovernmental bodies on joint courses of action to address ongoing or emerging global challenges; and (iii) it advises interested Governments on the ways and means of translating policy frameworks developed in United Nations conferences and summits into programmes at the country level and, through technical assistance, helps build national capacities.
Note
The designations employed in this report and the material presented in it do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Symbols of United Nations documents are composed of capital letters combined with figures. This publication has been issued without formal editing.
EXPLANATORY NOTES
The following symbols have been used in the tables throughout this report: Two dots (..) indicate that the item is not applicable. Three dots (...) indicate that data are not available or are not separately reported. An em dash () indicates that the value is zero (magnitude zero). 0 or 0.0 indicates that the magnitude is not zero, but less than half of the unit employed. A minus sign (-) before a figure indicates a decrease. A full stop (.) is used to indicate decimals. Years given start on 1 July. Use of a hyphen (-) between years, for example, 1995-2000, signifies the full period involved, from 1 July of the beginning year to 30 June of the end year. Decimals and percentages in tables may not add to the totals presented because of rounding. References to countries, territories, areas and urban locations The designations employed in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The designations more developed regions and less developed regions are used for statistical convenience and do not necessarily express a judgment about the stage reached by a particular country or area in the development process. The term country as used in this publication also refers, as appropriate, to territories or areas. The more developed regions comprise all regions of Europe plus Northern America, Australia/New Zealand and Japan. The term developed countries is used to designate countries in the more developed regions. The less developed regions comprise all regions of Africa, Asia (excluding Japan) and Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia. The term developing countries is used to designate countries in the less developed regions. The group of least developed countries, as defined by the United Nations General Assembly in resolutions 59/209, 59/210 and 60/33, as of January 2008 comprises 49 countries, 33 of which are located in Africa, 10 in Asia, one in Latin America and the Caribbean, and five in Oceania (Botswana graduated in 1994 and Cape Verde in December 2007 from the group of least developed countries). Country names and the composition of geographical areas follow those presented in Standard country or area codes for statistical use (ST/ESA/STAT/SER.M/49/Rev.3), available at: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/methods/m49/m49.htm. Names of cities or urban agglomerations are presented in their original language, following the names used by National Statistical Offices or the United Nations Demographic Yearbook. For cities with names in more than one language, different names are separated by a hyphen. If the country uses non-Latin scripts, a transliteration of the original spelling into Latin script is used. If cities have established alternative names or English names, those names are presented in brackets. When necessary, the administrative subdivision to which a city belongs is appended to the city name to identify it unambiguously. For convenience, the term growth rate is used in this report interchangeably with the more appropriate term rate of change, which is neutral in respect to either growth or decline. The following abbreviations are used in this publication: DESA Department of Economic and Social Affairs SAR Special Administrative Region HDI Human Development Index
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision
iii
CLASSIFICATION OF COUNTRIES BY MAJOR AREA AND REGION OF THE WORLD

Africa Eastern Africa
Burundi Comoros Djibouti Eritrea Ethiopia Kenya Madagascar Malawi Mauritius1 Mayotte Mozambique Runion Rwanda Seychelles* Somalia Uganda United Republic of Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe
Middle Africa
Angola Cameroon Central African Republic Chad Congo Democratic Republic of the Congo Equatorial Guinea Gabon So Tom and Prncipe
Northern Africa
Algeria Egypt Libyan Arab Jamahiriya Morocco Sudan Tunisia Western Sahara
Western Africa
Benin Burkina Faso Cape Verde Cte dIvoire Gambia Ghana Guinea Guinea-Bissau Liberia Mali Mauritania Niger Nigeria Saint Helena2 * Senegal Sierra Leone Togo
Southern Africa
Botswana Lesotho Namibia South Africa Swaziland
Asia Eastern Asia

China China, Hong Kong SAR China, Macao SAR Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea Japan Mongolia Republic of Korea
South-Central Asia3
Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Iran (Islamic Republic of) Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan
South-Eastern Asia
Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Indonesia Lao Peoples Democratic Republic Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Timor-Leste Viet Nam
Western Asia
Armenia Azerbaijan Bahrain Cyprus Georgia Iraq Israel Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Occupied Palestinian Territory Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Syrian Arab Republic Turkey United Arab Emirates Yemen
1 Including Agalega, Rodrigues, and Saint Brandon. 2 Including Ascension, and Tristan da Cunha. 3 The regions Southern Asia and Central Asia are combined into South-Central Asia.
iv
CLASSIFICATION OF COUNTRIES (continued)

Europe Eastern Europe
Belarus Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Poland Republic of Moldova Romania Russian Federation Slovakia Ukraine
Northern Europe
Channel Islands4 Denmark Estonia Faeroe Islands* Finland5 Iceland Ireland Isle of Man* Latvia Lithuania Norway7 Sweden United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland8
Southern Europe
Albania Andorra* Bosnia and Herzegovina Croatia Gibraltar* Greece Holy See6 * Italy Malta Montenegro Portugal San Marino* Serbia Slovenia Spain The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia9
Western Europe
Austria Belgium France Germany Liechtenstein* Luxembourg Monaco* Netherlands Switzerland
Latin America and the Caribbean

Caribbean Anguilla* Antigua and Barbuda* Aruba Bahamas Barbados British Virgin Islands* Cayman Islands* Cuba Dominica* Dominican Republic Grenada Guadeloupe Haiti Jamaica Martinique Montserrat* Netherlands Antilles Puerto Rico Saint Kitts and Nevis* Saint Lucia Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Trinidad and Tobago Turks and Caicos Islands* United States Virgin Islands Central America Belize Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Mexico Nicaragua Panama South America Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Falkland Islands (Malvinas)* French Guiana Guyana Paraguay Peru Suriname Uruguay Venezuela (Bolivarian Rep. of)
4 Refers to Guernsey, and Jersey. 5 Including land Islands. 6 Refers to the Vatican City State. 7 Including Svalbard and Jan Mayen Islands. 8 Also referred to as United Kingdom. 9 Also referred to as TFYR Macedonia. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision v

Northern America
Bermuda* Canada Greenland* Saint Pierre and Miquelon* United States of America
Oceania Australia/New Zealand

Australia10 New Zealand
Melanesia
Fiji New Caledonia Papua New Guinea Solomon Islands Vanuatu
Micronesia
Guam Kiribati* Marshall Islands* Micronesia (Federated States of) Nauru* Northern Mariana Islands* Palau*
Polynesia
American Samoa* Cook Islands* French Polynesia Niue* Pitcairn* Samoa Tokelau* Tonga Tuvalu* Wallis and Futuna Islands*
Sub-Saharan Africa
Angola Benin Botswana Burkina Faso Burundi Cameroon Cape Verde Central African Republic Chad Comoros Congo Cte d'Ivoire Democratic Republic of the Congo Djibouti Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Ethiopia Gabon Gambia Ghana Guinea Guinea-Bissau Kenya Lesotho Liberia Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritania Mauritius Mayotte Mozambique Namibia Niger Nigeria Runion Rwanda Saint Helena So Tom and Prncipe Senegal Seychelles Sierra Leone Somalia South Africa Sudan Swaziland Togo Uganda United Republic of Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe
10 Including Christmas Island, Cocos (Keeling) Islands, and Norfolk Island. vi United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision

Least developed countries
Afghanistan Angola Bangladesh Benin Bhutan Burkina Faso Burundi Cambodia Central African Republic Chad Comoros Democratic Republic of the Congo Djibouti Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Ethiopia Gambia Guinea Guinea-Bissau Haiti Kiribati Lao Peoples Democratic Republic Lesotho Liberia Madagascar Malawi Maldives Mali Mauritania Mozambique Myanmar Nepal Niger Rwanda Samoa So Tom and Prncipe Senegal Sierra Leone Solomon Islands Somalia Sudan Timor-Leste Togo Tuvalu Uganda United Republic of Tanzania Vanuatu Yemen Zambia
NOTE: Countries with fewer than 100,000 inhabitants in 2009 are marked by an asterisk (*).
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Since 1988 the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations has been issuing every two years revised and updated estimates and projections of the urban and rural populations of all countries in the world and of their major urban agglomerations. This note presents the main findings of the 2009 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects which are consistent with the size of the total population of each country as estimated or projected in the 2008 Revision of World Population Prospects (United Nations, 2009 a). The 2009 Revision presents estimates and projections of the total, urban and rural populations of the world for the period 1950-2050. The results are shown for development groups, six major areas (i.e., Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, Northern America and Oceania) and 21 regions. Data are further presented for the 230 countries or areas of the world. The 2009 Revision also provides estimates and projections of the population of urban agglomerations with at least 750,000 inhabitants in 2009 for the period 1950-2025. Estimates of the proportion of the population living in urban areas and the population of cities are based on national statistics. Population censuses are the most commonly used sources of data on the proportion urban and the population of cities. However, in some countries, the data used as the basis for estimation are obtained from population registers or administrative statistics. The 2009 Revision confirms that the world population is currently slightly more urban than rural, since the level of world urbanization crossed the 50 per cent mark in 2009. Nevertheless, major parts of the world remain largely rural. In both Africa and Asia, still six out of every ten persons live in rural areas. Between 2009 and 2050, the world population is expected to increase by 2.3 billion, passing from 6.8 billion to 9.1 billion (United Nations, 2009 a). At the same time, the population living in urban areas is projected to gain 2.9 billion, passing from 3.4 billion in 2009 to 6.3 billion 2050. Thus, the urban areas of the world are expected to absorb all the population growth expected over the next four decades while at the same time drawing in some of the rural population. As a result, the world rural population is projected to start decreasing in about a decade and there will likely be 0.5 billion fewer rural inhabitants in 2050 than today. Furthermore, most of the population growth expected in urban areas will be concentrated in the cities and towns of the less developed regions. Asia, in particular, is projected to see its urban population increase by 1.7 billion, Africa by 0.8 billion, and Latin America and the Caribbean by 0.2 billion. Population growth is therefore becoming largely an urban phenomenon concentrated in the developing world (David Satterthwaite, 2007). Realization of these projections is contingent on the continuation of fertility reductions in the developing world. If fertility were to remain constant at current levels and the pace of urbanization remained that projected in the 2009 Revision, the world urban population would increase to 7.6 billion by 2050 instead of the 6.3 billion expected when fertility is assumed to continue declining in all developing regions (United Nations, 2009 c). In many countries, natural increase (the difference of births minus deaths) accounts for 60 per cent or more of urban population growth. Consequently, policies that facilitate the reduction of fertility by ensuring that couples have access to the modern contraception and that they can decide freely the number of children they desire can contribute to moderate increases in the number of urban dwellers, thereby making it easier for developing countries to adjust to the transformations associated with growing urbanization. There is significant diversity in the urbanization levels reached by different regions. The transformative power of urbanization was felt earlier in todays more developed regions and they have reached high levels of urbanization. Thus, 75 per cent of the inhabitants of the more developed regions lived in urban areas in 2009, whereas just 45 per cent of those in the less developed regions did so. Urbanization is expected to continue rising in both the more developed and the less developed regions so that, by 2050, urban dwellers will likely
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision 1
account for 86 per cent of the population in the more developed regions and for 66 per cent of that in the less developed regions. Overall, the world population is expected to be 69 per cent urban in 2050. Todays 3.4 billion urban dwellers are distributed unevenly among urban settlements of different size. In discussing urbanization, the focus often is on large cities, cities whose populations are larger than those of many countries. In 2009, 21 urban agglomerations qualified as megacities because they had at least 10 million inhabitants. Despite their visibility and dynamism, megacities account for a small though increasing proportion of the world urban population: 9.4 per cent in 2009 and 10.3 per cent in 2025. At the same time, over half of the urban population lives and will continue to live in small urban centres with fewer than half a million inhabitants. These and other key findings of the 2009 Revision are summarized below. Key Findings of the 2009 Revision 1. By the middle of 2009, the number of people living in urban areas (3.42 billion) had surpassed the number living in rural areas (3.41 billion) and since then the world has become more urban than rural (figure I). However, major disparities in the level of urbanization remain among development groups. Thus, whereas the proportion urban in the more developed regions was already nearly 53 per cent in 1950, it will still take another decade for half of the population of the less developed regions to live in urban areas (figure II).
Figure I. Urban and rural populations of the world, 1950-2050
7000.0
6000.0
5000.0 Population (millions)
4000.0
3000.0
2000.0
1000.0
0.0 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000 Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Urban population
Rural population
Figure II. Urban and rural populations by development group, 1950-2050
6000.0
5000.0
Population (millions)
4000.0
3000.0
2000.0
1000.0
0.0 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000 Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
More developed regions, urban population More developed regions, rural population
Less developed regions, urban population Less developed regions, rural population
TABLE 1. TOTAL, URBAN AND RURAL POPULATIONS BY DEVELOPMENT GROUP, SELECTED PERIODS, 1950-2050
Population (billion) Development group 1950 1975 2009 2025 2050 Average annual rate of change (percentage) 1950-1975 1975-2009 2009-2025 2025-2050
Total population World.................................... More developed regions.... Less developed regions..... Urban population World.................................... More developed regions.... Less developed regions..... Rural population World.................................... More developed regions.... Less developed regions..... 1.80 0.39 1.41 2.55 0.35 2.20 3.41 0.31 3.10 3.48 0.26 3.21 2.86 0.18 2.69 1.39 -0.39 1.77 0.85 -0.35 1.01 0.12 -1.01 0.22 -0.77 -1.62 -0.71 0.73 0.43 0.30 1.51 0.70 0.81 3.42 0.92 2.50 4.54 1.01 3.52 6.29 1.10 5.19 2.91 1.97 3.96 2.40 0.82 3.30 1.76 0.58 2.15 1.31 0.33 1.55 2.53 0.81 1.72 4.06 1.05 3.01 6.83 1.23 5.60 8.01 1.28 6.73 9.15 1.28 7.87 1.89 1.02 2.25 1.53 0.48 1.82 1.00 0.22 1.16 0.53 -0.01 0.63
2. The world urban population is expected to increase by 84 per cent by 2050, from 3.4 billion in 2009 to 6.3 billion in 2050. By mid-century the world urban population will likely be the same size as the worlds total population was in 2004. Virtually all of the expected growth in the world population will be concentrated in the urban areas of the less developed regions, whose population is projected to increase from 2.5 billion in 2009 to 5.2 billion in 2050. Over the same period, the rural population of the less developed regions is expected to decline from 3.4 billion to 2.9 billion. In the more developed regions, the urban population is projected to increase modestly, from 0.9 billion in 2009 to 1.1 billion in 2050 (table 1).
TABLE 2. PERCENTAGE URBAN BY DEVELOPMENT GROUP, SELECTED PERIODS, 1950-2050
Rate of urbanization Percentage urban Development group 1950 1975 2009 2025 2050 1950-1975 (percentage) 1975-2009 2009-2025 2025-2050
World...................................... More developed regions ..... Less developed regions.......
28.8 52.6 17.6
37.2 66.7 27.0
50.1 74.9 44.6
56.6 79.4 52.3
68.7 86.2 65.9
1.02 0.95 1.71
0.87 0.34 1.48
0.77 0.36 0.99
0.77 0.33 0.92
3. The world rural population is expected to reach a maximum of 3.5 billion in 2020 and to decline slowly thereafter, to reach 2.9 billion in 2050 (figure I). These global trends are driven mostly by the dynamics of rural population growth in the less developed regions, which house today 91 per cent of the world rural population. Whereas the rural population of the more developed regions has been declining steadily during the second half of the twentieth century and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future, the rural population of the less developed regions more than doubled since 1950 and will likely continue to grow until 2022 before a long-term decline sets in. 4. The rate of growth of the world urban population is slowing down (table 1). Between 1950 and 2009, the world urban population grew at an average rate of 2.6 per cent per year and increased nearly fivefold over the period, passing from 0.7 billion to 3.4 billion. During 2009-2025, the world urban population is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.8 per cent, which, if maintained, would lead to a doubling of the urban population in 39 years. During 2025-2050, the urban growth rate is expected to decline further to 1.3 per cent per year, implying a doubling time of 53 years. 5. The sustained increase of the urban population combined with the pronounced deceleration of rural population growth will result in continued urbanization, that is, in increasing proportions of the population living in urban areas. Globally, the level of urbanization is expected to rise from 50 per cent in 2009 to 69 per cent in 2050 (table 2). The more developed regions are expected to see their level of urbanization increase from 75 per cent to 86 per cent over the same period. In the less developed regions, the proportion urban will likely increase from 45 per cent in 2009 to 66 per cent in 2050 (table 2). 6. The world urban population is not distributed evenly among cities of different sizes. Over half of the worlds 3.4 billion urban dwellers (51.9 per cent) lived in cities or towns with fewer than half a million inhabitants. Such small cities account for 53.2 per cent of the urban population in the more developed regions and for 51.4 per cent of that in the less developed regions. Between 2009 and 2025, small urban centres with fewer than half a million inhabitants are expected to account for 45 per cent of the expected increase in the world urban population.
Figure III. Total population in millions by city size class, 1995. 2010 and 2025
1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,593
1995
2009
2025
Total population in millions
1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 914
1,146 1,004
749 684 629 534 465 352 237 143 225 321 186 320 526 469
Less than 100,000
100,000 500,000
500,000 1,000,000
1,000,000 5,000,000
5,000,000 10,000,000
10,000,000 and more
City size class

Note: The overall population in the smallest cities is estimated as the difference of the total urban population and the sum of the populations in cities estimated to have at least 100,000 inhabitants at each point in time. However, because the data on individual cities is generally reported only when their populations surpass 100,000, the projected numbers in the smallest size class may include some cities that are that time have surpassed the 100,000 mark.
7. In 2009, cities with fewer than 100,000 inhabitants accounted for one third of the world urban population, amounting to 1.15 billion (figure III). Cities with populations ranging between 100,000 and 500,000 were home to a further 629 million people, equivalent to 18 per cent of the world urban population. Taken together, cities with fewer than 500,000 inhabitants account for 51.9 per cent of the urban population. 8. In contrast, the 21 megacities in the world, each with at least 10 million inhabitants, accounted for 9.4 per cent of the world urban population. The number of megacities is projected to increase to 29 in 2025, at which time they are expected to account for 10.3 per cent of the world urban population. In relation to the overall population of the world, the share of megacities was 4.7 per cent in 2009, implying that just about one in every twenty people on Earth live in megacities. 9. Until 1975 there were just three megacities in the world: New York, Tokyo and Mexico City. Since then, their number has increased markedly and most new megacities have arisen in developing countries. Today, Asia has 11 megacities, Latin America has four, and Africa, Europe and Northern America have two each (table 3). Eleven of those megacities are capitals of their countries. By 2025, when the number of megacities is expected to reach 29, Asia would have gained another five, Latin America two, and Africa one.
10. Tokyo, the capital of Japan, is today the most populous urban agglomeration. Its population, estimated at 36.5 million in 2009, is higher than that of 196 countries or areas. If it were a country, it would rank 35th in population size, surpassing the populations of Algeria, Canada or Uganda. To reach such a large number of inhabitants, Tokyo, the megacity, is actually an urban agglomeration that comprises not only Tokyo-to but also 87 surrounding cities and towns, including Yokohama, Kawasaki and Chiba, large cities in their own right. Often, megacities arise because of the fusion of several cities or urban localities that are functionally linked and form an urban agglomeration.
TABLE 3. POPULATION OF URBAN AGGLOMERATIONS WITH 10 MILLION INHABITANTS OR MORE, 1950, 1975, 2009 AND 2025 (MILLIONS)
1950 Rank Urban agglomeration Population Rank Urban agglomeration 1975 Population
1 2
New York-Newark, USA Tokyo, Japan

2009
12.3 11.3
1 2 3
Tokyo, Japan New York-Newark, USA Ciudad de Mxico (Mexico City), Mexico
2025
26.6 15.9 10.7
Rank
Urban agglomeration
Population
Rank
Urban agglomeration
Population
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Tokyo, Japan Delhi, India So Paulo, Brazil Mumbai (Bombay), India Ciudad de Mxico (Mexico City), Mexico New York-Newark, United States Shanghai, China Kolkata (Calcutta), India Dhaka, Bangladesh Buenos Aires, Argentina Karachi, Pakistan Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, United States Beijing, China Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Manila, Philippines Osaka-Kobe, Japan Al-Qahirah (Cairo), Egypt Moskva (Moscow), Russian Federation Paris, France Istanbul, Turkey Lagos, Nigeria
36.5 21.7 20.0 19.7 19.3 19.3 16.3 15.3 14.3 13.0 12.8 12.7 12.2 11.8 11.4 11.3 10.9 10.5 10.4 10.4 10.2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
Tokyo, Japan Delhi, India Mumbai (Bombay), India So Paulo, Brazil Dhaka, Bangladesh Ciudad de Mxico (Mexico City), Mexico New York-Newark, United States Kolkata (Calcutta), India Shanghai, China Karachi, Pakistan Lagos, Nigeria Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo Beijing, China Manila, Philippines Buenos Aires, Argentina Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, United States Al-Qahirah (Cairo), Egypt Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Istanbul, Turkey Osaka-Kobe, Japan Shenzhen, China Chongqing, China Guangzhou, Guangdong, China Paris, France Jakarta, Indonesia Moskva (Moscow), Russian Federation Bogot, Bolivia Lima, Peru Lahore, Pakistan
37.1 28.6 25.8 21.7 20.9 20.7 20.6 20.1 20.0 18.7 15.8 15.0 15.0 14.9 13.7 13.7 13.5 12.7 12.1 11.4 11.1 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.5 10.5 10.3
11. Following Tokyo, the next largest urban agglomerations are Delhi in India with 22 million inhabitants, So Paulo in Brazil and Bombay in India, each with 20 million inhabitants, and Mexico City in Mexico and New York-Newark in the United States of America, each with about 19 million inhabitants. The smallest megacities are located in Africa and Europe. They include the two megacities in Africa, namely, Cairo in Egypt, with 11 million inhabitants and Lagos in Nigeria, with 10 million, and the two megacities in Europe, namely, Paris in France and Moscow in the Russian Federation, each with about 10.5 million inhabitants. Istanbul in Turkey is also among the group, being the least populous megacity in Asia, with 10.4 million inhabitants.
TABLE 4. POPULATION OF URBAN AGGLOMERATIONS WITH 10 MILLION INHABITANTS OR MORE IN 2009 AND THEIR AVERAGE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, SELECTED PERIODS, 1975-2025
Population (millions) Urban agglomeration 1975 2009 2025 Average annual rate of change (percentage) 1975-2009 2009-2025
Lagos, Nigeria Dhaka, Bangladesh Karachi, Pakistan Delhi, India Kolkata (Calcutta), India Mumbai (Bombay), India Manila, Philippines Al-Qahirah (Cairo), Egypt Beijing, China Shanghai, China Istanbul, Turkey So Paulo, Brazil Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, United States Ciudad de Mxico (Mexico City), Mexico New York-Newark, United States Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Buenos Aires, Argentina Paris, France Tokyo, Japan Moskva (Moscow), Russian Federation Osaka-Kobe, Japan
1.9 2.2 4.0 4.4 7.9 7.1 5.0 6.4 4.8 5.6 3.6 9.6 8.9 10.7 15.9 7.6 8.7 8.6 26.6 7.6 9.8
10.2 14.3 12.8 21.7 15.3 19.7 11.4 10.9 12.2 16.3 10.4 20.0 12.7 19.3 19.3 11.8 13.0 10.4 36.5 10.5 11.3
15.8 20.9 18.7 28.6 20.1 25.8 14.9 13.5 15.0 20.0 12.1 21.7 13.7 20.7 20.6 12.7 13.7 10.9 37.1 10.7 11.4
4.96 5.47 3.43 4.68 1.95 3.01 2.44 1.54 2.73 3.14 3.11 2.15 1.03 1.74 0.57 1.32 1.16 0.58 0.93 0.95 0.41
2.74 2.40 2.37 1.71 1.71 1.69 1.65 1.35 1.29 1.27 0.96 0.51 0.48 0.44 0.42 0.42 0.34 0.28 0.10 0.08 0.02
NOTE: Urban agglomerations are ordered according to their projected rate of population change during 2009-2025.
12. In 2025, Tokyo is projected to remain the worlds most populous urban agglomeration, with 37 million inhabitants, although its population will scarcely increase. It will be followed by the two major megacities in India: Delhi with 29 million inhabitants and Mumbai with 26 million, both expecting important population gains. So Paulo in Brazil, would come next, with 22 million inhabitants, a modest increase compared to 2009. Dhaka in Bangladesh would follow, with 21 million, implying a 46 per cent increase since 2009.
13. Megacities are experiencing very different rates of population change. The populations of 9 of the 21 megacities of 2009 are expected to grow at rates ranging from a very low 0.02 per cent per year to at most 0.51 per cent per year during 2009-2025 (table 4). The megacities exhibiting such relatively slow rates of population growth include all those located in developed countries (France, Japan, the Russian Federation and the United States) plus the four megacities in Latin America. Very high rates of growth are expected in Lagos in Nigeria, Dhaka in Bangladesh and Karachi in Pakistan (all having growth rates well above 2 per cent per year). In addition, the megacities in India (Delhi, Calcutta and Bombay) plus Manila in the Philippines are expected to grow considerably faster than those in China, Egypt or Turkey. These trends are consistent with the overall differentials in fertility among the national populations concerned. As noted earlier, the excess of births over deaths is an important component of population growth in most urban areas and the projected rates of population growth in megacities reflect the gradient in natural increase of the countries they belong to. 14. Although the megacities attract considerable attention because of their population size and geographical complexity, they represent the extreme of the distribution of cities by population size. They are followed by large cities with populations ranging from 5 million to just under 10 million, which in 2009 numbered 32 and are expected to number 46 in 2025. Three quarters of these megacities in waiting are located in developing countries and account for just 6.6 per cent of the urban population (table 5). 15. Cities in the next size class, with more than a million inhabitants but fewer than 5 million, are numerous (374 in 2009 increasing to 506 in 2025) and they account for 22 per cent of the urban population. Smaller cities, with populations ranging from 500,000 to one million inhabitants, are even more numerous (509 in 2009 rising to 667 in 2025), but they account for just 10 per cent of the overall urban population (table 5).
TABLE 5. POPULATION DISTRIBUTION OF THE WORLD AND DEVELOPMENT GROUPS, BY AREA OF RESIDENCE AND SIZE CLASS OF URBAN SETTLEMENT, 1975, 2009 AND 2025 Area of residence and size class of urban settlement (number of inhabitants) Urban area 10 million or more 5 million to 10 million 1 million to 5 million 500,000 to 1 million Fewer than 500,000 Urban area 10 million or more 5 million to 10 million 1 million to 5 million 500,000 to 1 million Fewer than 500,000 Urban area 10 million or more 5 million to 10 million 1 million to 5 million 500,000 to 1 million Fewer than 500,000 Population (millions) 1975 2009 2025 1 511 53 109 292 157 900 698 42 50 137 73 396 814 11 60 155 83 505 3 421 320 225 749 352 1775 924 101 45 202 84 491 2 497 219 180 546 268 1284 4 536 469 321 1004 465 2277 1 014 104 70 207 92 541 3 522 365 251 797 374 1736 Percentage distribution 1975 2009 2025 100.0 3.5 7.2 19.3 10.4 59.6 100.0 6.1 7.1 19.6 10.5 56.7 100.0 1.3 7.3 19.1 10.3 62.0 100.0 9.4 6.6 21.9 10.3 51.9 100.0 10.9 4.9 21.9 9.1 53.2 100.0 8.8 7.2 21.9 10.7 51.4 100.0 10.3 7.1 22.1 10.3 50.2 100.0 10.3 6.9 20.4 9.0 53.4 100.0 10.4 7.1 22.6 10.6 49.3
Development group World
More developed regions
Less developed regions
16. The distribution of the urban population by city size class varies among the major areas. Europe, for instance, is exceptional in that 67 per cent of its urban dwellers live in urban centres with fewer than 500,000 inhabitants and only 8 per cent live in cities with 5 million inhabitants or more. Africa has a distribution of the urban population by size of urban settlement resembling that of Europe, with 58 per cent of urban dwellers living in smaller cities (those with fewer than half a million inhabitants) and just 9 per cent living in cities with over 5 million inhabitants. In Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Northern America, the concentration of the urban population in large cities is marked: about one in every five urban dwellers in those major areas lives in a large urban agglomeration. At the same time, the proportion of urban dwellers living in small cities is between 49 per cent and 48 per cent in Asia and in Latin America and the Caribbean and is a low 37 per cent in Northern America. Oceania is a special case because it lacks cities with more than 5 million inhabitants but also has a relatively low percentage of its population living in urban centres with fewer than half a million inhabitants (38 per cent). 17. Historically, the process of rapid urbanization started first in todays more developed regions. In 1920, just under 30 per cent of their population was urban and by 1950, more than half of their population was living in urban areas. In 2009, high levels of urbanization, surpassing 80 per cent, characterized Australia, New Zealand and Northern America. Europe, with 73 per cent of its population living in urban areas, was the least urbanized major area in the developed world. By 2050, Australia, New Zealand and Northern America are all expected to be over 90 per cent urban while Europes level of urbanization is projected to be lower, at 84 per cent (table 6). 18. Among the less developed regions, Latin America and the Caribbean has an exceptionally high level of urbanization (79 per cent), higher than that of Europe. Africa and Asia, in contrast, remain mostly rural, with 40 per cent and 42 per cent, respectively, of their populations living in urban areas. Over the coming decades, the level of urbanization is expected to increase in all major areas of the developing world, with Africa and Asia urbanizing more rapidly than the rest (table 6). Nevertheless, by mid-century, Africa and Asia are expected still to have lower levels of urbanization than the more developed regions or Latin America and the Caribbean (figure IV).
TABLE 6. PERCENTAGE URBAN BY MAJOR AREA, SELECTED PERIODS, 1950-2050

Rate of urbanization (percentage) 197520092009 2025
Percentage urban Major area 1950 1975 2009 2025 2050 19501975
20252050
Africa................................................ Asia................................................... Europe .............................................. Latin America and the Caribbean ..... Northern America ............................. Oceania .............................................
14.4 16.3 51.3 41.4 63.9 62.0
25.7 24.0 65.3 60.7 73.8 71.5
39.6 41.7 72.5 79.3 81.9 70.2
47.2 49.9 76.9 83.8 85.7 70.8
61.6 64.7 84.3 88.8 90.1 74.8
2.32 1.55 0.96 1.54 0.58 0.57
1.26 1.62 0.31 0.78 0.30 -0.05
1.10 1.13 0.36 0.34 0.28 0.05
1.07 1.03 0.37 0.23 0.20 0.22
Figure IV. Percentage of the population in urban areas, 2009, 2025 and 2050
2009 80 and over 60 - 79 40 - 59 20 - 39 Less than 20
2025
2050
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects DEMOBASE extract. 2009. NOTE: The boundaries shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.
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Figure V. Distribution of the world urban population by major area, 1950, 2009, 2050
60% 54% 50% 50%
40% 31% 30% 20% 20% 12% 10% 4% 0% Africa Asia
38%
16% 9% 9%
13% 10%
15% 8%
6% 1% 1% 1%
Europe
Latin America and the Caribbean 2009 2050
Northern America
Oceania
1950
19. Despite its low level of urbanization, in 2009 Asia was home to about half of the urban population in the world. Europe had the second highest share, at 16 per cent (figure V). Over the next four decades, Africa and Asia will experience a marked increase in their urban populations. In Africa the urban population is likely to treble and in Asia it will almost double (table 7). By mid-century, most of the urban population of the world will be concentrated in Asia (54 per cent) and Africa (20 per cent). 20. With the exception of Africa and Oceania, all major areas are expected to have smaller rural populations in 2050 than today (table 7). Africas rural population may start to decline before the midcentury. Today, the majority of rural dwellers live in Asia (70 per cent) and Africa (18 per cent) and the concentration of the world rural population in these two major areas combined is expected to increase so that, by 2050, 65 per cent of all rural inhabitants are projected to live in Asia and 27 per cent in Africa. 21. The world urban population is highly concentrated in a few countries. In 2009, about three quarters of the 3.4 billion urban dwellers on Earth lived in 25 countries, whose urban populations ranged from 31 million in South Africa to 620 million in China. China, India and the United States accounted for 36 per cent of the world urban population. Most of the 25 countries with the largest urban populations are highly urbanized, but eight have levels of urbanization ranging from 28 per cent to 49 per cent and they include some of the most populous countries in the world: Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan. 22. Most countries have small urban populations. In 2009, two thirds of the 230 countries or areas considered had fewer than 5 million urban dwellers and they accounted for 6 per cent of the world urban population. Among them, 58 per cent had urban populations below one million and accounted for 0.5 per cent of all urban dwellers on Earth. By 2050, just half of all countries or areas are expected to have fewer than 5 million urban dwellers and will account for 2.1 per cent of the world urban population.
TABLE 7. TOTAL, URBAN AND RURAL POPULATIONS BY MAJOR AREA, SELECTED PERIODS, 1950-2050
Population (millions) Major area 1950 1975 2009 2025 2050 Average annual rate of change (percentage) 19501975200920251975 2009 2025 2050
Total population Africa................................................ Asia................................................... Europe............................................... Latin America and the Caribbean ..... Northern America ............................. Oceania ............................................. Urban population Africa................................................ Asia................................................... Europe............................................... Latin America and the Caribbean ..... Northern America ............................. Oceania ............................................. Rural population Africa................................................ Asia................................................... Europe............................................... Latin America and the Caribbean ..... Northern America ............................. Oceania ............................................. 195 1174 267 98 62 5 311 1808 235 127 63 6 610 2402 201 121 63 11 740 2389 169 109 57 12 768 1849 109 82 44 13 1.88 1.73 -0.51 1.03 0.09 0.88 1.98 0.84 -0.46 -0.15 -0.01 1.63 1.20 -0.03 -1.10 -0.66 -0.64 1.02 0.15 -1.03 -1.76 -1.15 -1.02 0.17 33 229 281 69 110 8 108 572 441 196 179 15 399 1719 531 462 285 25 661 2383 561 561 340 30 1231 3382 582 648 404 38 4.77 3.66 1.81 4.17 1.96 2.60 3.85 3.24 0.55 2.51 1.37 1.44 3.14 2.04 0.34 1.22 1.11 1.20 2.49 1.40 0.15 0.58 0.69 0.97 227 1403 547 167 172 13 419 2379 676 323 242 21 1010 4121 732 582 348 35 1400 4773 729 670 398 43 1998 5231 691 729 448 51 2.44 2.11 0.84 2.64 1.38 2.03 2.59 1.62 0.23 1.73 1.07 1.49 2.04 0.92 -0.03 0.87 0.83 1.15 1.42 0.37 -0.22 0.34 0.48 0.76
23. Similarly, the increases in the world urban population are concentrated in a few countries, with China and India together projected to account for about a third of the increase in the urban population in the coming decades. Between 2009 and 2025, the urban areas of the world are expected to gain 1.1 billion people, including 231 million in China and 167 million in India, which account together for 36 per cent of the total increase. Nine additional countries are projected to contribute 26 per cent of the urban increment, with increases ranging from 16 million to 51 million. The countries involved are: Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo in Africa; Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan and the Philippines in Asia; Brazil and Mexico in Latin America, and the United States of America. Among them, those in Africa and Asia will experience high rates of urban population growth, usually surpassing 2 per cent or even 3 per cent per year 24. A further urban increment of 1.7 billion people is expected globally during 2025-2050, with India being the major contributor (352 million) and China following (186 million). Together, the two most populous countries on Earth are expected to account for 31 per cent of urban growth during 2025-2050. In 2050, China will still have the largest urban population (1 billion), followed by India (0.9 billion).
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25. In a few developed countries, the urban population will decrease. Despite the projected increases in the level of urbanization, overall population decline in several countries will lead to a reduction in the number of urban dwellers. Between 2009 and 2025, the urban population of the Russian Federation and that of Ukraine are projected to decline by 3 million and 0.7 million, respectively. Between 2025 and 2050, more countries will experience reductions in the urban population. Those with the largest drops include Japan (a reduction of 4.5 million), the Republic of Korea (2.9 million), the Russian Federation (4.1 million) and Ukraine (2 million). 26. The rural population is even more highly concentrated in a few countries than the urban population. In 2009, 18 countries accounted for 75 per cent of the rural population and all but three (Japan, the Russian Federation and the United States) are located in Africa or Asia. India has the largest rural population (842 million), followed by China (725 million). Together, they account for 46 per cent of the world rural population. Bangladesh, Indonesia and Pakistan follow, each with over 115 million rural inhabitants. 27. In Africa, the largest rural populations are located in Nigeria (79 million), Ethiopia (69 million), Egypt (47 million), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (43 million), the United Republic of Tanzania (32 million) and Kenya (31 million). During 2009-2025, the rural populations of most of those African countries are projected to increase at rates higher than 1.3 per cent per year, except in the cases of Nigeria and Egypt. Among the populous countries in Asia, Pakistan is expected to experience the highest growth rate of the rural population during 2009-2025 (1.2 per cent per year). In contrast, in seven of the 18 countries with large rural populations, the rural population is declining, with China, Japan, the Russian Federation, Thailand and the United States having the fastest rates of decline. 28. As in the case of the urban population, most countries have small rural populations. In 2009, two thirds of the 230 countries or areas considered had at most 5 million rural inhabitants and accounted for 4.8 per cent of the world rural population. In three quarters of them, the rural population is projected to decrease during 2009-2050. 29. Faced with the opportunities and challenges associated with urbanization, many Governments have consistently considered their populations spatial distribution as a concern. In 2009, 83 per cent of Governments expressed concern about their pattern of population distribution, down from 89 per cent in the 1970s (table 8). Among developing countries, 58 per cent expressed the desire to modify in a major way the spatial distribution of their populations, whereas 28 per cent wanted to effect only minor changes. Among developed countries, 29 per cent desired a major change and 43 per cent a minor change. 30. Dissatisfaction regarding patterns of population distribution was highest in Africa (75 per cent of its countries wished to make major changes in the spatial distribution of their populations) and Asia (57 per cent desired a major change). In Latin America and the Caribbean, Oceania and Europe, about 40 per cent of Governments considered that major changes in spatial distribution were desirable. 31. Policies aimed at modifying the spatial distribution of a population often focus on ways to reduce migrant flows to large cities. In 1976, 44 per cent of developing countries reported having implemented such policies and by 2009, that proportion had increased to 72 per cent. At the same time, among developed countries, the proportion having policies to reduce migrant flows to large cities declined from 55 per cent in 1976 to 26 per cent in 1996 but increased later to 34 per cent in 2009. In Oceania, 83 per cent of countries have such policies, in Africa 77 per cent, in Asia 66 per cent and in Latin America and the Caribbean 68 per cent (United Nations, 2009 b).
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TABLE 8. GOVERNMENT VIEWS ON THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION, 2009

Major change desired Minor change desired Major change desired Minor change desired
Satisfactory
Total
Satisfactory
Total
Number of countries
Percentage
World................................ More developed regions ... Less developed regions.....
99 14 85
62 21 41
34 14 20
195 49 146
51 29 58
32 43 28
17 29 14
100 100 100
Source: World Population Policies 2009 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.09.XIII.14).
32. Historically, urbanization has been driven by the concentration of investment and employment opportunities in urban areas. Productive activities in industry and services cluster in cities. By one estimate, 80 per cent of the worlds gross domestic product (GDP) is generated by urban areas. As cities attract businesses and jobs, they bring together both the human and the entrepreneurial resources to generate new ideas, innovations and increasingly productive uses of technology. The 2009 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects provides a useful basis for the analysis of the worlds urban transformation and the dynamics of city growth.
14
References David Satterthwaite (2007): The transition to a predominantly urban world and its underpinnings. International Institute for Environment and Development. Human Settlements Discussion Paper Series, 4 September 2007 United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2009 a): World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, New York (Extended Dataset on CD-ROM, ST/ESA/SER.A/283, Sales No. 09.XII.6) _______ (2009 b): World Population Monitoring. Focusing on Population Distribution, Urbanization, Internal Migration and Development. A Concise Report. New York, (ST/ESA/SER.A/284, Sales No. E.09.XII.3) _______ (2009 c): World Fertility Patterns 2009. Wall Chart. (ST/ESA/SER.A/294, Sales No. E.09.XIII.12)
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ANNEX TABLES
Table A.1. Total, urban and rural population and proportion urban, 2009 Population (thousands) Total Urban Rural 6 829 360 3 421 110 3 408 251 28 150 3 155 34 895 67 86 18 498 15 88 40 276 3 083 107 21 293 8 364 8 832 342 791 162 221 256 9 634 10 647 307 8 935 65 697 9 863 3 767 1 950 193 734 23 400 7 545 15 757 8 303 14 805 19 522 33 573 506 56 4 422 11 206 150 16 970 1 345 751 7 022 538 45 660 676 3 683 20 4 579 6 281 1 606 22 992 62 76 10 661 15 27 37 139 1 977 50 18 937 5 631 4 577 287 701 44 711 112 7 145 10 368 159 3 718 65 237 6 518 1 809 1 178 166 844 9 301 5 371 3 914 887 2 934 11 245 27 018 305 56 1 712 3 038 47 15 062 620 480 7 022 538 34 141 190 2 273 15 2 926 21 869 1 549 11 903 5 10 7 836 0 61 3 137 1 106 57 2 356 2 733 4 255 55 91 117 510 144 2 489 279 148 5 217 0 461 3 345 1 958 772 26 889 14 99 2 173 11 843 7 416 11 871 8 277 6 555 200 0 2 710 8 168 103 1 909 725 271 0 0 11 519 486 1 410 5 1 653 Percentage urban 50.1 22.3 50.9 65.9 92.7 88.4 57.6 100.0 30.3 92.2 64.1 46.8 88.9 67.3 51.8 83.9 88.6 27.6 43.8 74.2 97.4 51.8 41.6 100.0 33.9 66.1 48.0 60.4 86.1 40.7 75.2 71.2 24.8 10.7 19.8 57.6 80.5 60.4 100.0 38.7 27.1 31.2 88.8 46.1 100.0 100.0 74.8 28.1 61.7 74.5 63.9
Country or area World Afghanistan Albania Algeria American Samoa Andorra Angola Anguilla Antigua and Barbuda Argentina Armenia Aruba Australia Austria Azerbaijan Bahamas Bahrain Bangladesh Barbados Belarus Belgium Belize Benin Bermuda Bhutan Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Botswana Brazil British Virgin Islands Brunei Darussalam Bulgaria Burkina Faso Burundi Cambodia Cameroon Canada Cape Verde Cayman Islands Central African Republic Chad Channel Islands Chile China China, Hong Kong SAR China, Macao SAR Colombia Comoros Congo Cook Islands Costa Rica
19
Table A.1. Total, urban and rural population and proportion urban, 2009 Population (thousands) Country or area Total Urban Rural Cte d'Ivoire 21 075 10 495 10 580 Croatia 4 416 2 537 1 879 Cuba 11 204 8 435 2 769 Cyprus 871 611 260 Czech Republic 10 369 7 621 2 748 Dem. People's Republic of Korea 23 906 14 372 9 534 Democratic Republic of the Congo 66 020 22 819 43 201 Denmark 5 470 4 742 729 Djibouti 864 658 206 Dominica 67 45 22 Dominican Republic 10 090 6 914 3 176 Ecuador 13 625 9 035 4 590 Egypt 82 999 35 925 47 074 El Salvador 6 163 3 931 2 232 Equatorial Guinea 676 267 409 Eritrea 5 073 1 070 4 003 Estonia 1 340 931 409 Ethiopia 82 825 13 657 69 168 Faeroe Islands 50 20 30 Falkland Islands (Malvinas) 3 2 1 Fiji 849 437 412 Finland 5 326 4 517 808 France 62 343 52 746 9 597 French Guiana 226 172 54 French Polynesia 269 138 131 Gabon 1 475 1 262 212 Gambia 1 705 978 727 Georgia 4 260 2 244 2 016 Germany 82 167 60 580 21 587 Ghana 23 837 12 095 11 742 Gibraltar 31 31 0 Greece 11 161 6 827 4 334 Greenland 57 48 9 Grenada 104 40 64 Guadeloupe 465 458 7 Guam 178 166 12 Guatemala 14 027 6 871 7 156 Guinea 10 069 3 509 6 559 Guinea-Bissau 1 611 481 1 130 Guyana 762 217 545 Haiti 10 033 5 074 4 959 Holy See 1 1 0 Honduras 7 466 3 808 3 658 Hungary 9 993 6 768 3 225 Iceland 323 301 22 India 1 198 003 356 057 841 946 Indonesia 229 965 101 182 128 783 Iran (Islamic Republic of) 74 196 52 049 22 147 Iraq 30 747 20 377 10 370 Ireland 4 515 2 783 1 733 Isle of Man 80 41 40 Percentage urban 49.8 57.4 75.3 70.1 73.5 60.1 34.6 86.7 76.2 67.1 68.5 66.3 43.3 63.8 39.5 21.1 69.5 16.5 40.3 73.1 51.5 84.8 84.6 76.2 51.5 85.6 57.3 52.7 73.7 50.7 100.0 61.2 83.9 38.9 98.4 93.1 49.0 34.9 29.9 28.5 50.6 100.0 51.0 67.7 93.3 29.7 44.0 70.2 66.3 61.6 50.7
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Table A.1. Total, urban and rural population and proportion urban, 2009 Population (thousands) Total Urban Rural 7 170 6 583 587 59 870 40 820 19 050 2 719 1 413 1 306 127 156 84 731 42 425 6 316 4 956 1 361 15 637 9 097 6 540 39 802 8 699 31 103 98 43 55 2 985 2 936 49 5 482 1 897 3 586 6 320 2 024 4 296 2 249 1 524 725 4 224 3 679 544 2 067 540 1 526 3 955 1 876 2 079 6 420 4 988 1 432 36 5 31 3 287 2 199 1 087 486 413 73 19 625 5 852 13 773 15 263 2 940 12 324 27 468 19 596 7 872 309 120 189 13 010 4 564 8 447 409 386 23 62 44 18 405 361 44 3 291 1 355 1 936 1 288 539 749 194 97 97 109 610 84 980 24 630 111 25 86 33 33 0 2 671 1 643 1 028 624 384 240 6 1 5 31 993 18 441 13 552 22 894 8 618 14 276 50 020 16 495 33 524 2 171 812 1 360 10 10 0 29 331 5 297 24 034 16 592 13 669 2 923 198 184 14 250 144 106 4 266 3 676 590 5 743 3 274 2 468 15 290 2 598 12 692 154 729 75 943 78 785 1 1 1 87 79 8 Percentage urban 91.8 68.2 52.0 66.6 78.5 58.2 21.9 43.8 98.4 34.6 32.0 67.8 87.1 26.1 47.4 77.7 14.3 66.9 84.9 29.8 19.3 71.3 38.9 35.1 94.5 71.4 89.1 41.2 41.9 50.1 77.5 22.6 100.0 61.5 61.5 14.1 57.6 37.6 33.0 37.4 100.0 18.1 82.4 93.0 57.4 86.2 57.0 17.0 49.1 37.0 91.2
Country or area Israel Italy Jamaica Japan Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Kiribati Kuwait Kyrgyzstan Lao People's Democratic Republic Latvia Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Libyan Arab Jamahiriya Liechtenstein Lithuania Luxembourg Madagascar Malawi Malaysia Maldives Mali Malta Marshall Islands Martinique Mauritania Mauritius Mayotte Mexico Micronesia (Fed. States of) Monaco Mongolia Montenegro Montserrat Morocco Mozambique Myanmar Namibia Nauru Nepal Netherlands Netherlands Antilles New Caledonia New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Niue Northern Mariana Islands
21
Table A.1. Total, urban and rural population and proportion urban, 2009 Population (thousands) Total Urban Rural 4 812 3 804 1 008 4 277 3 162 1 115 2 845 2 071 774 180 808 64 349 116 459 20 17 4 3 454 2 558 895 6 732 841 5 891 6 349 3 867 2 482 29 165 22 327 6 838 91 983 44 784 47 199 0 0 0 38 074 23 234 14 840 10 707 6 435 4 272 3 982 3 927 55 1 409 1 350 60 48 333 39 948 8 385 3 604 1 665 1 939 827 775 52 21 275 12 106 9 169 140 874 102 976 37 898 9 998 1 856 8 142 4 2 3 52 17 35 172 48 124 6 5 1 109 53 56 179 36 142 31 29 2 163 100 63 25 721 21 054 4 667 12 534 5 275 7 259 9 850 5 488 4 362 84 46 38 5 696 2 167 3 529 4 737 4 737 0 5 406 2 976 2 430 2 020 1 002 1 018 523 95 428 9 133 3 376 5 757 50 110 30 675 19 434 44 904 34 685 10 218 20 238 2 903 17 335 42 272 16 645 25 628 520 358 161 1 185 254 931 9 249 7 825 1 425 7 568 5 565 2 003 21 906 12 121 9 785 6 952 1 828 5 124 2 042 1 209 833 67 764 22 761 45 003 Percentage urban 79.0 73.9 72.8 35.6 82.4 74.1 12.5 60.9 76.6 48.7 0.0 61.0 60.1 98.6 95.8 82.7 46.2 93.7 56.9 73.1 18.6 39.7 32.3 27.8 90.4 48.9 20.4 94.1 61.4 81.9 42.1 55.7 54.8 38.0 100.0 55.1 49.6 18.2 37.0 61.2 77.2 14.3 39.4 68.9 21.4 84.6 73.5 55.3 26.3 59.2 33.6
Country or area Norway Occupied Palestinian Territory Oman Pakistan Palau Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Pitcairn Poland Portugal Puerto Rico Qatar Republic of Korea Republic of Moldova Runion Romania Russian Federation Rwanda Saint Helena Saint Kitts and Nevis Saint Lucia Saint Pierre and Miquelon Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Samoa San Marino Sao Tome and Principe Saudi Arabia Senegal Serbia Seychelles Sierra Leone Singapore Slovakia Slovenia Solomon Islands Somalia South Africa Spain Sri Lanka Sudan Suriname Swaziland Sweden Switzerland Syrian Arab Republic Tajikistan TFYR Macedonia Thailand
22
Table A.1. Total, urban and rural population and proportion urban, 2009 Population (thousands) Total Urban Rural 1 134 314 820 6 619 2 829 3 790 1 0 1 104 24 80 1 339 181 1 158 10 272 6 871 3 400 74 816 51 763 23 053 5 110 2 506 2 604 33 30 2 10 5 5 32 710 4 291 28 419 45 708 31 311 14 397 4 599 3 850 749 61 565 48 945 12 620 43 739 11 337 32 402 314 659 258 010 56 649 110 104 5 3 361 3 105 256 27 488 9 970 17 519 240 60 180 28 583 26 613 1 971 88 069 26 204 61 864 15 0 15 513 419 94 23 580 7 360 16 220 12 935 4 594 8 341 12 523 4 728 7 795 Percentage urban 27.7 42.7 0.0 23.3 13.5 66.9 69.2 49.0 92.7 49.9 13.1 68.5 83.7 79.5 25.9 82.0 95.1 92.4 36.3 25.1 93.1 29.8 0.0 81.6 31.2 35.5 37.8
Country or area Timor-Leste Togo Tokelau Tonga Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Turkmenistan Turks and Caicos Islands Tuvalu Uganda Ukraine United Arab Emirates United Kingdom United Republic of Tanzania United States of America United States Virgin Islands Uruguay Uzbekistan Vanuatu Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of Viet Nam Wallis and Futuna Islands Western Sahara Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2010). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision. Highlights. New York: United Nations.
23
Table A.2. Urban population and percentage urban by country, 2009 and 2050 Urban population (thousands) 2009 2050 3 421 110 6 285 881 6 281 1 606 22 992 62 76 10 661 15 27 37 139 1 977 50 18 937 5 631 4 577 287 701 44 711 112 7 145 10 368 159 3 718 65 237 6 518 1 809 1 178 166 844 9 301 5 371 3 914 887 2 934 11 245 27 018 305 56 1 712 3 038 47 15 062 620 480 7 022 538 34 141 190 2 273 15 34 749 2 566 41 425 104 121 34 042 20 58 48 882 2 319 68 26 954 6 870 7 323 414 1 185 125 500 167 6 353 11 306 368 14 630 63 650 12 261 2 206 2 236 204 464 18 573 4 497 23 991 4 951 10 430 29 343 39 042 568 66 4 683 15 761 76 19 462 1 037 695 8 623 593 54 061 622 5 422 21
Country or area World Afghanistan Albania Algeria American Samoa Andorra Angola Anguilla Antigua and Barbuda Argentina Armenia Aruba Australia Austria Azerbaijan Bahamas Bahrain Bangladesh Barbados Belarus Belgium Belize Benin Bermuda Bhutan Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Botswana Brazil British Virgin Islands Brunei Darussalam Bulgaria Burkina Faso Burundi Cambodia Cameroon Canada Cape Verde Cayman Islands Central African Republic Chad Channel Islands Chile China China, Hong Kong SAR China, Macao SAR Colombia Comoros Congo Cook Islands
Percentage urban 2009 2050 50.1 68.7 22.3 50.9 65.9 92.7 88.4 57.6 100.0 30.3 92.2 64.1 46.8 88.9 67.3 51.8 83.9 88.6 27.6 43.8 74.2 97.4 51.8 41.6 100.0 33.9 66.1 48.0 60.4 86.1 40.7 75.2 71.2 24.8 10.7 19.8 57.6 80.5 60.4 100.0 38.7 27.1 31.2 88.8 46.1 100.0 100.0 74.8 28.1 61.7 74.5 47.0 77.7 83.5 96.8 87.8 80.5 100.0 51.9 96.0 76.9 63.9 93.8 80.7 69.2 90.9 92.8 56.4 70.4 87.3 98.4 72.7 66.6 100.0 64.2 82.2 73.3 81.1 93.6 64.3 87.2 83.4 58.8 33.3 43.8 79.9 87.9 80.8 100.0 61.6 56.7 53.2 94.2 73.2 100.0 100.0 86.0 50.7 79.0 89.3
24
Table A.2. Urban population and percentage urban by country, 2009 and 2050 Urban population (thousands) 2009 2050 2 926 5 199 10 495 32 373 2 537 2 895 8 435 8 068 611 964 7 621 8 581 14 372 18 307 22 819 93 271 4 742 5 133 658 1 249 45 53 6 914 11 436 9 035 15 045 35 925 81 998 3 931 6 392 267 901 1 070 5 405 931 987 13 657 65 149 20 35 2 3 437 657 4 517 5 005 52 746 63 697 172 398 138 239 1 262 2 311 978 3 046 2 244 2 261 60 580 59 089 12 095 34 198 31 30 6 827 8 485 48 46 40 63 458 471 166 231 6 871 19 738 3 509 15 087 481 1 875 217 286 5 074 12 644 1 1 3 808 9 173 6 768 7 339 301 391 356 057 875 193 101 182 190 007 52 049 82 931 20 377 49 193
Country or area Costa Rica Cte d'Ivoire Croatia Cuba Cyprus Czech Republic Dem. People's Republic of Korea Democratic Republic of the Congo Denmark Djibouti Dominica Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Estonia Ethiopia Faeroe Islands Falkland Islands (Malvinas) Fiji Finland France French Guiana French Polynesia Gabon Gambia Georgia Germany Ghana Gibraltar Greece Greenland Grenada Guadeloupe Guam Guatemala Guinea Guinea-Bissau Guyana Haiti Holy See Honduras Hungary Iceland India Indonesia Iran (Islamic Republic of) Iraq
25
Table A.2. Urban population and percentage urban by country, 2009 and 2050 Urban population (thousands) 2009 2050 2 783 4 909 41 48 6 583 10 077 40 820 46 334 1 413 1 836 84 731 81 403 4 956 8 844 9 097 13 540 8 699 41 112 43 97 2 936 5 187 1 897 3 687 2 024 7 310 1 524 1 448 3 679 4 652 540 1 447 1 876 6 105 4 988 8 565 5 13 2 199 2 030 413 673 5 852 23 940 2 940 17 729 19 596 34 846 120 333 4 564 18 458 386 403 44 78 361 362 1 355 3 902 539 863 97 258 84 980 113 012 25 57 33 38 1 643 2 740 384 459 1 2 18 441 33 234 8 618 29 750 16 495 39 841 812 2 345 10 11 5 297 23 319 13 669 15 976 184 186 144 260 3 676 4 861 3 274 6 116 2 598 21 431
Country or area Ireland Isle of Man Israel Italy Jamaica Japan Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Kiribati Kuwait Kyrgyzstan Lao People's Democratic Republic Latvia Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Libyan Arab Jamahiriya Liechtenstein Lithuania Luxembourg Madagascar Malawi Malaysia Maldives Mali Malta Marshall Islands Martinique Mauritania Mauritius Mayotte Mexico Micronesia (Fed. States of) Monaco Mongolia Montenegro Montserrat Morocco Mozambique Myanmar Namibia Nauru Nepal Netherlands Netherlands Antilles New Caledonia New Zealand Nicaragua Niger
26
Table A.2. Urban population and percentage urban by country, 2009 and 2050 Urban population (thousands) 2009 2050 75 943 218 018 1 1 79 144 3 804 5 296 3 162 8 692 2 071 4 108 64 349 199 009 17 25 2 558 4 517 841 3 829 3 867 7 913 22 327 34 810 44 784 101 371 0 0 23 234 23 567 6 435 8 009 3 927 4 091 1 350 2 261 39 948 40 037 1 665 1 979 775 1 067 12 106 13 368 102 976 95 978 1 856 9 480 2 3 17 38 48 109 5 6 53 85 36 70 29 32 100 243 21 054 39 161 5 275 17 003 5 488 6 843 46 74 2 167 7 771 4 737 5 221 2 976 3 408 1 002 1 283 95 446 3 376 14 972 30 675 45 199 34 685 44 325 2 903 6 802 16 645 51 365 358 517 254 691 7 825 9 549 5 565 7 094
Country or area Nigeria Niue Northern Mariana Islands Norway Occupied Palestinian Territory Oman Pakistan Palau Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Pitcairn Poland Portugal Puerto Rico Qatar Republic of Korea Republic of Moldova Runion Romania Russian Federation Rwanda Saint Helena Saint Kitts and Nevis Saint Lucia Saint Pierre and Miquelon Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Samoa San Marino Sao Tome and Principe Saudi Arabia Senegal Serbia Seychelles Sierra Leone Singapore Slovakia Slovenia Solomon Islands Somalia South Africa Spain Sri Lanka Sudan Suriname Swaziland Sweden Switzerland
27
Table A.2. Urban population and percentage urban by country, 2009 and 2050 Urban population (thousands) 2009 2050 12 121 27 696 1 828 5 155 1 209 1 389 22 761 43 984 314 1 767 2 829 9 216 0 0 24 55 181 489 6 871 10 427 51 763 81 812 2 506 4 865 30 40 5 8 4 291 30 596 31 311 28 645 3 850 7 567 48 945 63 509 11 337 59 109 258 010 365 093 104 73 3 105 3 476 9 970 20 411 60 258 26 613 40 734 26 204 65 867 0 0 419 839 7 360 32 303 4 594 16 898 4 728 14 270
Country or area Syrian Arab Republic Tajikistan TFYR Macedonia Thailand Timor-Leste Togo Tokelau Tonga Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Turkmenistan Turks and Caicos Islands Tuvalu Uganda Ukraine United Arab Emirates United Kingdom United Republic of Tanzania United States of America United States Virgin Islands Uruguay Uzbekistan Vanuatu Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of Viet Nam Wallis and Futuna Islands Western Sahara Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe
Percentage urban 2009 2050 55.3 75.0 26.3 46.4 59.2 74.8 33.6 60.0 27.7 54.9 42.7 69.8 0.0 0.0 23.3 44.5 13.5 38.3 66.9 82.0 69.2 84.0 49.0 71.6 92.7 98.2 49.9 72.4 13.1 33.5 68.5 81.8 83.7 91.7 79.5 87.8 25.9 54.0 82.0 90.4 95.1 97.7 92.4 95.6 36.3 56.0 25.1 53.5 93.1 96.9 29.8 59.0 0.0 0.0 81.6 89.4 31.2 60.2 35.5 58.4 37.8 64.3
28
Table A.3. Urban, rural and total populations and percentage urban for the world and major areas, 1950-2050
Major area 1950 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
World Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Northern America Oceania
729 33 229 281 69 110 8
1 511 108 572 441 196 179 15
1 727 135 689 466 233 188 16
1 976 167 836 485 271 199 18
2 255 205 1 003 503 311 213 19
2 539 248 1 175 512 352 232 20
Urban population (millions) 2 837 3 167 3 486 3 824 295 349 413 487 1 361 1 568 1 757 1 958 514 523 533 543 393 433 469 502 252 271 289 307 22 24 25 27 Rural population (millions) 3 346 3 422 3 478 572 620 667 2 369 2 409 2 432 207 199 191 124 120 116 65 63 61 10 11 11 Total population (millions) 6 512 6 909 7 302 921 1 033 1 153 3 937 4 167 4 391 729 733 734 557 589 618 335 352 368 34 36 38 Percentage urban 48.6 50.5 37.9 40.0 39.8 42.2 71.7 72.8 77.7 79.6 80.7 82.1 70.3 70.2
4 176 569 2 169 552 533 324 28
4 536 661 2 383 561 561 340 30
4 900 761 2 598 567 585 355 32
5 263 870 2 810 573 607 369 33
5 620 986 3 014 578 624 382 35
5 963 1 107 3 207 581 638 393 37
6 286 1 231 3 382 582 648 404 38
World Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Northern America Oceania 29 World Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Northern America Oceania
1 800 195 1 174 267 98 62 5
2 550 311 1 808 235 127 63 6
2 710 348 1 934 227 129 66 7
2 870 389 2 053 221 131 67 7
3 036 434 2 176 218 131 69 8
3 174 478 2 273 216 130 68 9
3 278 525 2 337 212 128 66 9
3 499 707 2 427 180 112 59 12
3 476 740 2 389 169 109 57 12
3 409 763 2 318 156 104 55 13
3 307 777 2 222 143 99 52 13
3 182 783 2 111 131 94 50 13
3 033 780 1 986 120 88 47 13
2 864 768 1 849 109 82 44 13
2 529 227 1 403 547 167 172 13
4 061 419 2 379 676 323 242 21
4 438 482 2 623 693 363 254 23
4 846 556 2 890 707 402 267 25
5 290 639 3 179 721 442 283 27
5 713 726 3 448 727 482 300 29
6 115 819 3 698 727 521 319 31
7 675 1 276 4 596 733 646 383 40
8 012 1 400 4 773 729 670 398 43
8 309 1 524 4 917 723 690 410 45
8 571 1 648 5 032 716 706 421 46
8 801 1 770 5 125 708 718 431 48
8 996 1 887 5 193 700 726 440 50
9 150 1 998 5 231 691 729 448 51
28.8 14.4 16.3 51.3 41.4 63.9 62.0
37.2 25.7 24.0 65.3 60.7 73.8 71.5
38.9 27.9 26.3 67.3 64.3 73.9 71.4
40.8 30.0 28.9 68.7 67.4 74.7 70.8
42.6 32.1 31.5 69.8 70.3 75.4 70.7
44.5 34.2 34.1 70.3 73.0 77.3 70.5
46.4 36.0 36.8 70.8 75.5 79.1 70.4
52.4 42.2 44.6 74.0 81.2 83.4 70.2
54.4 44.6 47.2 75.4 82.6 84.6 70.4
56.6 47.2 49.9 76.9 83.8 85.7 70.8
59.0 49.9 52.8 78.4 84.9 86.7 71.4
61.4 52.8 55.8 80.0 85.9 87.6 72.1
63.9 55.7 58.8 81.5 86.9 88.5 72.8
66.3 58.7 61.8 82.9 87.9 89.4 73.8
68.7 61.6 64.7 84.3 88.8 90.1 74.8
Table A.4. Annual increment in the total, urban and rural populations of the world, more developed regions and less developed regions, 1950-2050 (millions)
World Total population Urban population Rural population More developed regions Total population Urban population Rural population Less developed regions Total population Urban population Rural population Urban increment of less developed regions as percentage of World World urban total increment increment
Period
1950-1955 1955-1960 1960-1965 1965-1970 1970-1975 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 2045-2050
46.8 52.0 61.7 70.8 75.1 75.3 81.7 88.8 84.5 80.5 79.4 79.3 78.7 74.5 67.3 59.5 52.3 46.1 39.0 30.7
24.7 29.0 33.2 33.3 36.3 43.2 49.8 55.6 57.0 59.6 65.9 63.9 67.5 70.4 71.9 72.8 72.7 71.3 68.7 64.5
22.2 23.0 28.5 37.5 38.8 32.1 31.9 33.2 27.5 20.9 13.5 15.4 11.2 4.1 -4.6 -13.3 -20.3 -25.2 -29.7 -33.8
10.2 10.4 10.2 8.4 7.9 7.0 6.3 6.8 5.5 4.1 4.3 4.1 3.5 2.7 1.8 0.9 0.3 -0.1 -0.5 -0.9
10.6 11.6 11.8 11.0 9.2 8.3 7.0 7.5 6.3 5.2 5.9 6.2 6.0 5.6 5.1 4.6 4.0 3.4 2.9 2.3
-0.5 -1.2 -1.6 -2.7 -1.3 -1.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -1.1 -1.6 -2.0 -2.5 -2.9 -3.4 -3.7 -3.7 -3.6 -3.4 -3.2
36.7 41.6 51.5 62.4 67.2 68.3 75.4 82.1 79.1 76.4 75.1 75.1 75.2 71.8 65.6 58.6 52.1 46.3 39.6 31.6
14.0 17.4 21.4 22.2 27.1 34.9 42.9 48.1 50.7 54.4 59.9 57.7 61.5 64.8 66.8 68.2 68.6 67.9 65.9 62.2
22.6 24.2 30.0 40.2 40.2 33.4 32.5 34.0 28.4 22.0 15.1 17.4 13.6 7.0 -1.2 -9.6 -16.6 -21.6 -26.3 -30.6
56.9 60.2 64.6 66.8 74.6 80.9 86.0 86.4 88.9 91.3 91.0 90.3 91.1 92.0 92.9 93.7 94.5 95.2 95.8 96.4
30.0 33.6 34.8 31.4 36.0 46.4 52.4 54.1 59.9 67.6 75.5 72.8 78.2 86.9 99.2 114.7 131.2 147.1 168.8 202.4
30
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2010).World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision. Highlights. New York: United Nations.
Table A.5. Countries accounting for 75 per cent of the world urban population ordered by urban population size, 1975, 2009 and 2050
Urban population in Cumulative 1975 percentage (thousands) Urban population in Cumulative 2009 percentage (thousands) Urban population in 2050 (thousands)
Rank
Country
Rank
Country
Rank
Country
Cumulative percentage
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
United States of America China India Russian Federation Brazil Japan Germany United Kingdom France Mexico Italy Ukraine Indonesia Spain Argentina Poland Pakistan Canada Egypt Turkey Republic of Korea Nigeria Iran (Islamic Republic of)
161 379 158 543 131 708 89 167 65 729 63 427 57 085 43 678 38 453 37 926 36 211 28 620 25 369 24 828 21 062 18 803 18 765 17 498 17 207 17 138 16 678 16 328 15 254
10.7 21.2 29.9 35.8 40.1 44.3 48.1 51.0 53.5 56.0 58.4 60.3 62.0 63.7 65.1 66.3 67.5 68.7 69.8 71.0 72.1 73.2 74.2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
China India United States of America Brazil Russian Federation Indonesia Mexico Japan Nigeria Pakistan Germany France Iran (Islamic Republic of) Turkey United Kingdom Philippines Bangladesh Italy Republic of Korea Argentina Egypt Spain Colombia Ukraine South Africa
620 480 356 057 258 010 166 844 102 976 101 182 84 980 84 731 75 943 64 349 60 580 52 746 52 049 51 763 48 945 44 784 44 711 40 820 39 948 37 139 35 925 34 685 34 141 31 311 30 675
18.1 28.5 36.1 41.0 44.0 46.9 49.4 51.9 54.1 56.0 57.8 59.3 60.8 62.3 63.8 65.1 66.4 67.6 68.7 69.8 70.9 71.9 72.9 73.8 74.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
China India United States of America Nigeria Brazil Pakistan Indonesia Bangladesh Mexico Philippines Russian Federation Democratic Republic of the Congo Iran (Islamic Republic of) Egypt Turkey Japan Viet Nam Ethiopia France United Kingdom United Republic of Tanzania Germany Colombia Sudan Iraq Argentina Italy South Africa Spain Thailand
1 037 695 875 193 365 093 218 018 204 464 199 009 190 007 125 500 113 012 101 371 95 978 93 271 82 931 81 998 81 812 81 403 65 867 65 149 63 697 63 509 59 109 59 089 54 061 51 365 49 193 48 882 46 334 45 199 44 325 43 984
16.5 30.4 36.2 39.7 43.0 46.1 49.1 51.1 52.9 54.6 56.1 57.6 58.9 60.2 61.5 62.8 63.8 64.9 65.9 66.9 67.8 68.8 69.6 70.5 71.2 72.0 72.8 73.5 74.2 74.9
31
Table A.6. Countries accounting for 75 per cent of the world urban population in 1975, 2009 and 2050, ordered by level of urbanization in those years
Percentage urban in Rank 1975 Percentage urban in 2009 Percentage urban in 2050
Rank
Country
Country
Rank
Country
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Argentina United Kingdom Canada United States of America France Germany Spain Russian Federation Italy Mexico Brazil Ukraine Japan Poland Republic of Korea Iran (Islamic Republic of) Egypt Turkey Philippines Pakistan Nigeria India Indonesia China
81.0 77.7 75.6 73.7 72.9 72.6 69.6 66.4 65.6 62.8 60.8 58.4 56.8 55.3 48.0 45.7 43.5 41.6 35.6 26.3 25.5 21.3 19.3 17.4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Argentina Brazil France Republic of Korea United States of America Canada United Kingdom Mexico Spain Colombia Germany Russian Federation Iran (Islamic Republic of) Turkey Ukraine Italy Japan South Africa Nigeria Philippines China Indonesia Egypt Pakistan India Bangladesh
92.2 86.1 84.6 82.7 82.0 80.5 79.5 77.5 77.2 74.8 73.7 73.1 70.2 69.2 68.5 68.2 66.6 61.2 49.1 48.7 46.1 44.0 43.3 35.6 29.7 27.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Argentina France Brazil United States of America United Kingdom Mexico Spain Colombia Iran (Islamic Republic of) Turkey Germany Algeria Russian Federation Italy Japan South Africa Iraq Nigeria China Philippines Sudan Indonesia Egypt Democratic Republic of the Congo Thailand Pakistan Viet Nam Bangladesh India United Republic of Tanzania Ethiopia
96.0 94.1 93.6 90.4 87.8 87.6 86.5 86.0 85.5 84.0 83.8 83.5 82.7 81.2 80.1 79.6 76.9 75.4 73.2 69.4 67.7 65.9 63.3 63.2 60.0 59.4 59.0 56.4 54.2 54.0 37.5
32
Table A.7. Level of urbanization, rate of urbanization and average annual rate of change for countries with the largest urban populations, 1950 to 2050
Percentage urban 1950 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 China India United States of America Brazil Russian Federation Indonesia Mexico Japan Nigeria Pakistan Germany France Iran (Islamic Republic of) Turkey United Kingdom Philippines Bangladesh Italy Republic of Korea Argentina Egypt Spain Colombia Ukraine South Africa Canada Viet Nam Poland Democratic Republic of the Congo Thailand Iraq Sudan Ethiopia United Republic of Tanzania 11.8 17.0 64.2 36.2 44.1 12.4 42.7 34.9 10.2 17.5 68.1 55.2 27.5 24.8 79.0 27.1 4.3 54.1 21.4 65.3 31.9 51.9 32.7 35.5 42.2 60.9 11.6 38.3 19.1 16.5 35.1 6.8 4.6 3.5 1975 17.4 21.3 73.7 60.8 66.4 19.3 62.8 56.8 25.5 26.3 72.6 72.9 45.7 41.6 77.7 35.6 9.8 65.6 48.0 81.0 43.5 69.6 58.5 58.4 48.1 75.6 18.8 55.3 29.5 23.8 61.4 18.9 9.5 11.1 2009 46.1 29.7 82.0 86.1 73.1 44.0 77.5 66.6 49.1 35.6 73.7 84.6 70.2 69.2 79.5 48.7 27.6 68.2 82.7 92.2 43.3 77.2 74.8 68.5 61.2 80.5 29.8 61.0 34.6 33.6 66.3 39.4 16.5 25.9 2050 73.2 54.2 90.4 93.6 82.7 65.9 87.6 80.1 75.4 59.4 83.8 94.1 85.5 84.0 87.8 69.4 56.4 81.2 90.8 96.0 63.3 86.5 86.0 81.8 79.6 87.9 59.0 73.6 63.2 60.0 76.9 67.7 37.5 54.0 Rate of urbanization (percentage) 1950-1975 1975-2009 2009-2050 1.55 0.90 0.55 2.08 1.64 1.77 1.54 1.96 3.67 1.63 0.25 1.11 2.03 2.07 -0.07 1.08 3.33 0.77 3.24 0.86 1.23 1.17 2.33 1.99 0.52 0.86 1.91 1.46 1.74 1.46 2.23 4.08 2.88 4.64 2.87 0.98 0.32 1.02 0.28 2.42 0.62 0.47 1.92 0.89 0.05 0.44 1.26 1.50 0.07 0.92 3.03 0.11 1.60 0.38 -0.01 0.31 0.72 0.47 0.71 0.18 1.35 0.29 0.47 1.02 0.23 2.15 1.63 2.48 1.13 1.47 0.24 0.20 0.30 0.99 0.30 0.45 1.05 1.25 0.31 0.26 0.48 0.47 0.24 0.86 1.75 0.43 0.23 0.10 0.93 0.28 0.34 0.43 0.64 0.22 1.67 0.46 1.47 1.41 0.36 1.32 2.00 1.79 Average annual rate of change of the urban population (percentage) 1950-1975 3.61 2.93 1.86 4.86 2.71 3.90 4.66 3.15 5.89 3.82 0.82 2.04 4.74 4.68 0.35 4.05 5.71 1.47 5.61 2.52 3.67 2.14 5.10 3.08 3.04 2.95 4.16 2.72 4.36 4.33 5.20 6.66 5.21 7.59 1975-2009 4.01 2.93 1.38 2.74 0.42 4.07 2.37 0.85 4.52 3.62 0.17 0.93 3.61 3.25 0.33 3.23 5.15 0.35 2.57 1.67 2.17 0.98 2.62 0.26 2.67 1.28 3.14 0.62 3.51 2.41 2.99 4.75 4.35 5.45 2009-2050 1.25 2.19 0.85 0.50 -0.17 1.54 0.70 -0.10 2.57 2.75 -0.06 0.46 1.14 1.12 0.64 1.99 2.52 0.31 0.01 0.67 2.01 0.60 1.12 -0.22 0.95 0.90 2.25 0.03 3.43 1.61 2.15 2.75 3.81 4.03
Rank
Country
33
Note: Based on countries that appear at least once in table A.5; countries are ordered according to the size of the urban population in 2009. Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2010). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision. Highlights. New York: United Nations
Table A.8. Countries accounting for 75 per cent of the world rural population ordered by rural population size, 1975, 2009 and 2050
Rural population in 1975 (thousands) Rural population in 2009 (thousands) Rural population in 2050 (thousands)
Rank Country
Rank
Country
Rank
Country
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
China India Indonesia Bangladesh United States of America Pakistan Japan Nigeria Russian Federation Brazil Viet Nam Thailand Ethiopia Philippines Turkey Myanmar Mexico
752 624 485 723 105 960 71 274 57 730 52 473 48 192 47 621 45 066 42 398 38 964 32 201 29 828 27 090 24 073 22 736 22 505
29.5 48.6 52.7 55.5 57.8 59.8 61.7 63.6 65.4 67.0 68.6 69.8 71.0 72.0 73.0 73.9 74.8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
India China Indonesia Bangladesh Pakistan Nigeria Ethiopia Viet Nam United States of America Philippines Egypt Thailand Democratic Republic of the Co Japan Russian Federation Myanmar United Republic of Tanzania Kenya
841 946 725 271 128 783 117 510 116 459 78 785 69 168 61 864 56 649 47 199 47 074 45 003 43 201 42 425 37 898 33 524 32 402 31 103
24.7 46.0 49.8 53.2 56.6 58.9 61.0 62.8 64.4 65.8 67.2 68.5 69.8 71.0 72.2 73.1 74.1 75.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
India China Pakistan Ethiopia Indonesia Bangladesh Nigeria Uganda Democratic Republic of the Congo United Republic of Tanzania Egypt Viet Nam Philippines Kenya Afghanistan United States of America Niger Thailand Nepal
738 607 379 350 136 186 108 662 98 103 96 995 71 065 60 676 54 240 50 341 47 535 45 798 44 785 44 297 39 189 38 839 36 785 29 377 25 709
25.8 39.0 43.8 47.6 51.0 54.4 56.9 59.0 60.9 62.6 64.3 65.9 67.5 69.0 70.4 71.7 73.0 74.0 74.9
34
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2010) . World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision. Highlights. New York: United Nations
Table A.9. Rural population, average annual rate of change and percentage rural for countries with the largest rural populations, 1950-2050
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Country India China Indonesia Bangladesh Pakistan Nigeria Ethiopia Viet Nam United States of America Philippines Egypt Thailand Democratic Republic of the Congo Japan Russian Federation Myanmar United Republic of Tanzania Kenya Uganda Brazil Mexico Nepal Turkey Afghanistan Niger Rural population (thousands) 1950 308 484 480 632 67 585 41 728 33 963 32 934 17 586 24 181 56 571 14 570 14 645 17 211 9 857 53 958 57 424 14 385 7 383 5 737 5 013 34 457 15 908 7 909 16 162 7 679 2 342 1975 485 723 752 624 105 960 71 274 52 473 47 621 29 828 38 964 57 730 27 090 22 393 32 201 16 520 48 192 45 066 22 736 14 192 11 740 10 126 42 398 22 505 12 711 24 073 11 559 4 509 2009 841 946 725 271 128 783 117 510 116 459 78 785 69 168 61 864 56 649 47 199 47 074 45 003 43 201 42 425 37 898 33 524 32 402 31 103 28 419 26 889 24 630 24 034 23 053 21 869 12 692 2050 738 607 379 350 98 103 96 995 136 186 71 065 108 662 45 798 38 839 44 785 47 535 29 377 54 240 20 256 20 119 23 532 50 341 44 297 60 676 14 048 15 952 25 709 15 577 39 189 36 785 Average annual rate of change of the rural population (percentage) 1950-1975 1975-2009 2009-2050 1.82 1.79 1.80 2.14 1.74 1.48 2.11 1.91 0.08 2.48 1.70 2.51 2.07 -0.45 -0.97 1.83 2.61 2.86 2.81 0.83 1.39 1.90 1.59 1.64 2.62 1.62 -0.11 0.57 1.47 2.34 1.48 2.47 1.36 -0.06 1.63 2.19 0.98 2.83 -0.37 -0.51 1.14 2.43 2.87 3.03 -1.34 0.27 1.87 -0.13 1.88 3.04 -0.32 -1.58 -0.66 -0.47 0.38 -0.25 1.10 -0.73 -0.92 -0.13 0.02 -1.04 0.56 -1.80 -1.54 -0.86 1.07 0.86 1.85 -1.58 -1.06 0.16 -0.96 1.42 2.60 Percentage rural 1950 83.0 88.2 87.6 95.7 82.5 89.8 95.4 88.4 35.8 72.9 68.1 83.5 80.9 65.1 55.9 83.8 96.5 94.4 97.2 63.8 57.3 97.3 75.2 94.2 95.1 1975 78.7 82.6 80.7 90.2 73.7 74.5 90.5 81.2 26.3 64.4 56.5 76.2 70.5 43.2 33.6 76.1 88.9 87.1 93.0 39.2 37.2 95.2 58.4 86.7 88.6 2009 70.3 53.9 56.0 72.4 64.4 50.9 83.5 70.2 18.0 51.3 56.7 66.4 65.4 33.4 26.9 67.0 74.1 78.1 86.9 13.9 22.5 81.9 30.8 77.7 83.0 2050 45.8 26.8 34.1 43.6 40.6 24.6 62.5 41.0 9.6 30.6 36.7 40.0 36.8 19.9 17.3 37.1 46.0 51.9 66.5 6.4 12.4 52.4 16.0 53.0 63.2
35
Note: Based on countries that appear at least once in table A.8; countries are ordered according to the size of the rural population in 2009. Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2010). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision. Highlights. New York: United Nations
Table A.10. Number of countries by period in which their populations become 50 per cent urban, by major area Major area World Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Northern America Oceania Before 1950 52 1 8 20 14 4 5 19501975 45 2 12 15 9 1 6 19752009 43 16 8 7 11 0 1 20092025 20 7 5 3 4 0 1 20252050 46 23 12 2 6 0 3 After 2050 24 8 5 1 2 0 8 Total 230 57 50 48 46 5 24
Note: If a country or area had a urban poportion larger than 50 percent in 1950, the country was considered as a country that became 50 per cent urban before 1950.
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2010). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision. Highlights. New York: United Nations
36
Table A.11. Number of countries or areas by period in which the rural population reaches a peak, by major area
Major area Before 1950 1950-1975 1975-2009 2009-2025 2025-2050 After 2050 Total
35 1 1 23 6 2 2
38 1 7 13 11 1 5
49 10 11 8 15 1 4
43 6 16 2 11 1 7
60 37 13 2 3 0 5
5 2 2 0 0 0 1
230 57 50 48 46 5 24
Note: If a country or area had its largest rural population in 1950, the country was considered as a country that reached its peak rural population before 1950. This category also includes those countries or areas that did not have any rural population in 1950. If a country will have its largest rural population in 2050, the country is considered as a country that will reach its peak rural population after 2050.
37
Table A.12. Countries or areas with 100,000 inhabitants or more in 2009 with high proportions of their population residing in urban areas in 1975, 2009 and 2050, by rank order
Rank Country or area Percentage urban in 1975 Rank Country or area Percentage urban in 2009 Rank Country or area Percentage urban in 2050
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Singapore China, Macao SAR Guadeloupe Belgium Malta China, Hong Kong SAR Kuwait Qatar Iceland Israel Australia Bahrain Guam Uruguay New Zealand Sweden Denmark Argentina
100.0 97.9 96.0 94.5 89.7 89.7 89.4 88.9 86.7 86.6 85.9 85.0 83.6 83.4 82.8 82.7 82.1 81.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
China, Hong Kong SAR China, Macao SAR Singapore Puerto Rico Guadeloupe Kuwait Belgium Qatar United States Virgin Islands Malta Runion Iceland Guam Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) Netherlands Antilles Uruguay Argentina Israel Martinique Australia Chile Bahrain
100.0 100.0 100.0 98.6 98.4 98.4 97.4 95.8 95.1 94.5 93.7 93.3 93.1 93.1 93.0 92.4 92.2 91.8 89.1 88.9 88.8 88.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
China, Hong Kong SAR China, Macao SAR Singapore Puerto Rico Kuwait Guadeloupe Belgium United States Virgin Islands Qatar Malta Runion Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of Netherlands Antilles Iceland Argentina Uruguay Guam Israel Chile France Australia Brazil Gabon Bahrain Denmark Lebanon Martinique
100.0 100.0 100.0 99.7 99.0 98.9 98.4 97.7 97.6 97.5 97.3 96.9 96.6 96.1 96.0 95.6 95.5 94.6 94.2 94.1 93.8 93.6 93.5 92.8 92.5 92.4 92.2
38
Table A.13. Countries or areas with 100,000 inhabitants or more in 2009 with low proportions of their population residing in urban areas in 1975, 2009 and 2050, by rank order
Rank Country or area Percentag e urban in 1975 Rank Country or area Percentage urban in 2009 Rank Country or area Percentage urban in 2050
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Burundi Rwanda Cambodia Nepal Burkina Faso Uganda Malawi Bhutan Mozambique Solomon Islands Ethiopia Bangladesh Lesotho Lao People's Democratic Republic United Republic of Tanzania Trinidad and Tobago Niger Botswana Papua New Guinea Kenya Afghanistan Vanuatu Eritrea
3.2 4.0 4.4 4.8 6.3 7.0 7.7 7.9 8.7 9.1 9.5 9.8 10.8 11.1 11.1 11.4 11.4 11.9 11.9 12.9 13.3 13.4 13.5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Burundi Papua New Guinea Uganda Trinidad and Tobago Sri Lanka Ethiopia Niger Nepal Solomon Islands Rwanda Malawi Cambodia Samoa Eritrea Swaziland Kenya Afghanistan Micronesia (Fed. States of)
10.7 12.5 13.1 13.5 14.3 16.5 17.0 18.1 18.2 18.6 19.3 19.8 20.4 21.1 21.4 21.9 22.3 22.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Papua New Guinea Sri Lanka Burundi Uganda Samoa Niger Ethiopia Trinidad and Tobago Swaziland Rwanda Cambodia Solomon Islands Micronesia (Fed. States of) Tonga
29.8 31.3 33.3 33.5 36.6 36.8 37.5 38.3 39.5 42.9 43.8 44.3 44.4 44.5
39
Table A.14. Countries or areas with 100,000 inhabitant or more in 2009 with the highest average annual rates of change of the urban population in 1995-2010 and 2010-2025, by rank order Urban average Urban annual rate of population Rank change in in 1995 1995-2010 (thousands) (percentage) 9.72 7.15 6.70 6.26 5.74 5.72 5.71 5.57 5.11 5.07 5.01 4.97 4.92 4.87 4.86 4.73 4.67 4.62 4.56 4.53 4.49 4.38 4.36 4.33 4.29 451 495 1 532 836 829 2 356 104 1 345 4 181 476 532 445 3 688 1 906 2 562 1 563 5 516 1 473 64 51 2 437 6 157 226 293 3 459 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Urban average annual rate of Urban change in population in 2010-2025 2010 (thousands) (percentage) 5.54 5.12 5.06 5.01 4.83 4.76 4.70 4.60 4.58 4.56 4.38 4.34 4.30 4.27 4.25 4.22 4.18 4.17 4.11 4.10 4.07 3.92 3.88 3.85 3.68 4 184 3 102 4 493 2 719 329 937 1 127 3 179 11 883 6 581 5 559 7 714 1 938 2 136 99 9 064 23 887 3 651 63 4 777 3 505 14 158 3 873 6 082 8 996
Rank
Country or area
Country or area
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Rwanda Qatar Burkina Faso Lao People's Democratic Republic Liberia Nepal Bhutan Malawi Mozambique Gambia Eritrea Burundi Yemen United Arab Emirates Haiti Chad Angola Togo Maldives Mayotte Mali United Republic of Tanzania Western Sahara Lesotho Afghanistan
Burkina Faso Malawi Uganda Niger Timor-Leste Burundi Eritrea Chad United Republic of Tanzania Afghanistan Nepal Yemen Rwanda Lao People's Democratic Republic Solomon Islands Kenya Democratic Republic of the Congo Guinea Vanuatu Mali Somalia Ethiopia Benin Madagascar Mozambique
40
Table A.15. Countries or areas with 100,000 inhabitant or more in 2009 with the highest average annual rates of change of the rural population in 1995-2010 and 2010-2025, by rank order Rural average Rural annual rate of population Rank change in in 1995 1995-2010 (thousands) (percentage) 7.09 4.69 4.34 3.46 3.42 3.24 3.06 2.98 2.88 2.84 2.76 2.74 2.69 2.65 2.65 2.62 2.59 2.58 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.39 2.37 2.37 2.32 33 31 1 116 7 835 4 989 6 547 18 510 35 14 625 2 674 276 33 5 565 4 046 5 728 938 3 620 774 9 737 1 366 49 062 8 799 22 278 526 5 229 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Rural average annual rate of Rural population in change in 2010 (thousands) 2010-2025 (percentage) 3.30 2.68 2.32 2.30 2.04 1.91 1.85 1.83 1.81 1.75 1.73 1.71 1.68 1.64 1.63 1.61 1.59 1.58 1.56 1.53 1.50 1.50 1.49 1.48 1.43 13 173 29 303 22 537 842 10 644 70 818 33 157 8 340 12 590 99 8 524 6 026 1 153 5 339 5 854 31 799 8 328 1 140 14 064 12 103 16 542 418 4 097 6 673 2 141
Rank
Country or area
Country or area
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Western Sahara Qatar Liberia Niger Rwanda Iraq Uganda French Guiana Afghanistan Eritrea Equatorial Guinea Kuwait Chad Papua New Guinea Zambia Jordan Benin Occupied Palestinian Territory Madagascar Mauritania Ethiopia Malawi Kenya United Arab Emirates Senegal
Niger Uganda Afghanistan Timor-Leste Iraq Ethiopia United Republic of Tanzania Rwanda Malawi Mayotte Zambia Papua New Guinea Guinea-Bissau Benin Somalia Kenya Chad Occupied Palestinian Territory Madagascar Burkina Faso Yemen Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Guinea Liberia
41
Table A.16. Population of urban agglomerations with the highest degree of primacy in 2010
Population in Percentage of the urban 2010 population residing in the (thousands) urban agglomeration in 2010
Rank
Country or area
Urban agglomeration
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39
China, Hong Kong SAR Singapore Kuwait Puerto Rico Mongolia Afghanistan Congo Togo Armenia Panama Senegal Uruguay Lebanon Cambodia Paraguay Georgia Israel Costa Rica Rwanda Greece Burkina Faso Guinea Kyrgyzstan Portugal Japan Angola Somalia Azerbaijan Liberia Haiti Sierra Leone United Arab Emirates Peru El Salvador Chile Lao People's Democratic Republic Kenya Ireland Niger
Hong Kong Singapore Al Kuwayt (Kuwait City) San Juan Ulaanbaatar Kabul Brazzaville Lom Yerevan Ciudad de Panam (Panama City) Dakar Montevideo Bayrut (Beirut) Phnum Pnh (Phnom Penh) Asuncin Tbilisi Tel Aviv-Yafo (Tel Aviv-Jaffa) San Jos Kigali Athnai (Athens) Ouagadougou Conakry Bishkek Lisboa (Lisbon) Tokyo Luanda Muqdisho (Mogadishu) Baku Monrovia Port-au-Prince Freetown Dubayy (Dubai) Lima San Salvador Santiago Vientiane Nairobi Dublin Niamey
7 069 4 837 2 305 2 743 966 3 731 1 323 1 667 1 112 1 378 2 863 1 635 1 937 1 562 2 030 1 120 3 272 1 461 939 3 257 1 908 1 653 864 2 824 36 669 4 772 1 500 1 972 827 2 143 901 1 567 8 941 1 565 5 952 831 3 523 1 099 1 048
100.0 100.0 76.8 69.5 57.7 56.7 56.7 56.6 56.0 52.5 52.5 52.4 52.2 51.6 51.1 50.3 48.9 48.9 48.5 47.4 45.6 45.3 45.0 43.3 43.2 42.9 42.8 42.5 42.2 40.4 40.2 39.6 39.4 39.3 39.0 38.9 38.9 38.7 38.5
Note: For urban agglomerations with 750,000 inhabitants or more in 2009 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2010).World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision. Highlights. New York: United Nations
42
Table A.17. Evolution of the population of the 29 urban agglomerations that are expected to become mega-cities in 2025 and their average annual rates of change
Population (thousands) Country Urban agglomeration 1980 1995 2010 2025 Average annual rate of change (percentage) 1980-1995 1995-2010 2010-2025
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
Japan Tokyo 28 549 33 587 36 669 37 088 1.08 0.59 0.08 India Delhi 5 558 12 407 22 157 28 568 5.35 3.87 1.69 India Mumbai (Bombay) 8 658 14 111 20 041 25 810 3.26 2.34 1.69 Brazil So Paulo 12 089 15 948 20 262 21 651 1.85 1.60 0.44 Bangladesh Dhaka 3 266 8 332 14 648 20 936 6.24 3.76 2.38 Mexico Ciudad de Mxico (Mexico City) 13 010 16 811 19 460 20 713 1.71 0.98 0.42 United States of America New York-Newark 15 601 16 943 19 425 20 636 0.55 0.91 0.40 India Kolkata (Calcutta) 9 030 11 924 15 552 20 112 1.85 1.77 1.71 China Shanghai 5 966 10 171 16 575 20 017 3.56 3.26 1.26 Pakistan Karachi 5 048 8 467 13 125 18 725 3.45 2.92 2.37 Nigeria Lagos 2 572 5 966 10 578 15 810 5.61 3.82 2.68 Democratic Republic of the Congo Kinshasa 2 053 4 590 8 754 15 041 5.36 4.30 3.61 China Beijing 5 366 8 138 12 385 15 018 2.78 2.80 1.29 Philippines Manila 5 955 9 401 11 628 14 916 3.04 1.42 1.66 Argentina Buenos Aires 9 422 11 154 13 074 13 708 1.12 1.06 0.32 United States of America Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana 9 512 11 339 12 762 13 677 1.17 0.79 0.46 Egypt Al-Qahirah (Cairo) 7 349 9 707 11 001 13 531 1.86 0.83 1.38 Brazil Rio de Janeiro 8 583 10 174 11 950 12 650 1.13 1.07 0.38 Turkey Istanbul 4 397 7 665 10 525 12 108 3.71 2.11 0.93 Japan Osaka-Kobe 9 990 11 052 11 337 11 368 0.67 0.17 0.02 China Shenzhen 58 2 304 9 005 11 146 24.51 9.09 1.42 China Chongqing 2 621 4 342 9 401 11 065 3.36 5.15 1.09 China Guangzhou, Guangdong 1 870 4 745 8 884 10 961 6.21 4.18 1.40 France Paris 8 669 9 510 10 485 10 884 0.62 0.65 0.25 Indonesia Jakarta 5 984 8 322 9 210 10 850 2.20 0.68 1.09 Russian Federation Moskva (Moscow) 8 136 9 201 10 550 10 663 0.82 0.91 0.07 Colombia Bogot 3 525 5 494 8 500 10 537 2.96 2.91 1.43 Peru Lima 4 438 6 582 8 941 10 530 2.63 2.04 1.09 Pakistan Lahore 2 882 4 653 7 132 10 308 3.19 2.85 2.46 Note: Urban agglomerations are ordered according to population in 2025. Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2010). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision. Highlights. New York: United Nations
43
Table A.18. Evolution of the population of the 46 urban agglomerations that are expected to have between 5 million and 10 million inhabitants in 2025 and their average annual rates of change
Population (thousands) Country 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 44 Urban agglomeration 1980 1995 2010 2025 Average annual rate of change (percentage) 1980-1995 1995-2010 2010-2025
United States of America India Republic of Korea China India China Viet Nam India United Kingdom Thailand Iran (Islamic Republic of) Angola Iraq China, Hong Kong SAR Sudan India Bangladesh Afghanistan China India Chile Brazil China Spain Cte d'Ivoire United States of America Kenya China China United Republic of Tanzania Saudi Arabia
Chicago Chennai (Madras) Seoul Tianjin Bangalore Wuhan Thnh Pho Ho Ch Minh (Ho Chi Minh City) Hyderabad London Krung Thep (Bangkok) Tehran Luanda Baghdad Hong Kong Al-Khartum (Khartoum) Ahmadabad Chittagong Kabul Dongguan, Guangdong Pune (Poona) Santiago Belo Horizonte Shenyang Madrid Abidjan Miami Nairobi Foshan Chengdu Dar es Salaam Ar-Riyadh (Riyadh)
7 216 4 203 8 258 3 750 2 812 2 516 2 878 2 487 7 660 4 723 5 079 962 3 145 4 609 1 164 2 484 1 340 978 137 1 642 3 721 2 441 3 418 4 253 1 384 3 122 862 269 2 150 836 1 055
7 839 5 836 10 256 5 513 4 744 4 763 3 802 4 825 7 908 6 106 6 687 1 953 4 598 6 214 3 242 3 790 2 578 1 616 1 416 2 978 4 964 4 093 4 081 4 688 2 535 4 431 1 755 569 3 403 1 668 3 035
9 204 7 547 9 773 7 884 7 218 7 681 6 167 6 751 8 631 6 976 7 241 4 772 5 891 7 069 5 172 5 717 4 962 3 731 5 347 5 002 5 952 5 852 5 166 5 851 4 125 5 750 3 523 4 969 4 961 3 349 4 848
9 936 9 909 9 767 9 713 9 507 9 347 8 957 8 894 8 816 8 470 8 387 8 077 8 043 7 969 7 953 7 567 7 265 6 888 6 852 6 649 6 503 6 463 6 457 6 412 6 321 6 275 6 246 6 242 6 224 6 202 6 196
0.55 2.19 1.44 2.57 3.49 4.25 1.86 4.42 0.21 1.71 1.83 4.72 2.53 1.99 6.83 2.82 4.36 3.35 15.56 3.97 1.92 3.45 1.18 0.65 4.04 2.33 4.74 4.99 3.06 4.61 7.05
1.07 1.71 -0.32 2.38 2.80 3.19 3.22 2.24 0.58 0.89 0.53 5.96 1.65 0.86 3.11 2.74 4.36 5.58 8.86 3.46 1.21 2.38 1.57 1.48 3.25 1.74 4.64 14.45 2.51 4.65 3.12
0.51 1.82 0.00 1.39 1.84 1.31 2.49 1.84 0.14 1.29 0.98 3.51 2.08 0.80 2.87 1.87 2.54 4.09 1.65 1.90 0.59 0.66 1.49 0.61 2.85 0.58 3.82 1.52 1.51 4.11 1.64
Table A.18. Evolution of the population of the 46 urban agglomerations that are expected to have between 5 million and 10 million inhabitants in 2025 and their average annual rates of change
Population (thousands) Country 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 45 43 44 45 46 Urban agglomeration 1980 1995 2010 2025 Average annual rate of change (percentage) 1980-1995 1995-2010 2010-2025
United States of America Canada Myanmar China China Egypt India Spain United States of America Singapore United States of America China Nigeria United States of America United States of America
Philadelphia Toronto Yangon Nanjing, Jiangsu Xi'an, Shaanxi Al-Iskandariyah (Alexandria) Surat Barcelona Dallas-Fort Worth Singapore Atlanta Haerbin Kano Houston Boston
4 540 3 008 2 378 1 731 1 178 2 519 877 3 837 2 468 2 415 1 625 1 992 1 350 2 424 3 281
4 938 4 197 3 213 2 944 2 821 3 277 1 984 4 318 3 665 3 480 2 781 2 860 2 360 3 353 3 726
5 626 5 449 4 350 4 519 4 747 4 387 4 168 5 083 4 951 4 837 4 691 4 251 3 395 4 605 4 593
6 135 6 029 6 022 5 845 5 726 5 648 5 579 5 477 5 421 5 362 5 153 5 080 5 060 5 051 5 034
0.56 2.22 2.01 3.54 5.82 1.76 5.44 0.79 2.64 2.44 3.58 2.41 3.72 2.16 0.85
0.87 1.74 2.02 2.86 3.47 1.94 4.95 1.09 2.00 2.19 3.49 2.64 2.42 2.11 1.40
0.58 0.67 2.17 1.72 1.25 1.68 1.94 0.50 0.61 0.69 0.63 1.19 2.66 0.62 0.61
Note: Urban agglomerations are ordered according to population in 2025. Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2010). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision. Highlights. New York: United Nations
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World Urbanization Prospects The 2009 Revision

ESA/P/WP/215 March 2010 English only

Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division

World Urbanization Prospects The 2009 Revision

United Nations New York, 2010

CLASSIFICATION OF COUNTRIES BY MAJOR AREA AND REGION OF THE WORLD

Asia Eastern Asia

CLASSIFICATION OF COUNTRIES (continued)

Latin America and the Caribbean

CLASSIFICATION OF COUNTRIES (continued)

Oceania Australia/New Zealand

CLASSIFICATION OF COUNTRIES (continued)

5000.0 Population (millions)

Figure II. Urban and rural populations by development group, 1950-2050

World...................................... More developed regions ..... Less developed regions.......

28.8 52.6 17.6

37.2 66.7 27.0

50.1 74.9 44.6

56.6 79.4 52.3

68.7 86.2 65.9

1.02 0.95 1.71

0.87 0.34 1.48

0.77 0.36 0.99

0.77 0.33 0.92

Total population in millions

Less than 100,000

10,000,000 and more

City size class

New York-Newark, USA Tokyo, Japan

26.6 15.9 10.7

Development group World

More developed regions

Less developed regions

TABLE 6. PERCENTAGE URBAN BY MAJOR AREA, SELECTED PERIODS, 1950-2050

14.4 16.3 51.3 41.4 63.9 62.0

25.7 24.0 65.3 60.7 73.8 71.5

39.6 41.7 72.5 79.3 81.9 70.2

47.2 49.9 76.9 83.8 85.7 70.8

61.6 64.7 84.3 88.8 90.1 74.8

2.32 1.55 0.96 1.54 0.58 0.57

1.26 1.62 0.31 0.78 0.30 -0.05

1.10 1.13 0.36 0.34 0.28 0.05

1.07 1.03 0.37 0.23 0.20 0.22

2009 80 and over 60 - 79 40 - 59 20 - 39 Less than 20

40% 31% 30% 20% 20% 12% 10% 4% 0% Africa Asia

Latin America and the Caribbean 2009 2050

TABLE 8. GOVERNMENT VIEWS ON THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION, 2009

World................................ More developed regions ... Less developed regions.....

100 100 100

729 33 229 281 69 110 8

1 511 108 572 441 196 179 15

1 727 135 689 466 233 188 16

1 976 167 836 485 271 199 18

2 255 205 1 003 503 311 213 19

2 539 248 1 175 512 352 232 20

4 176 569 2 169 552 533 324 28

4 536 661 2 383 561 561 340 30

4 900 761 2 598 567 585 355 32

5 263 870 2 810 573 607 369 33

5 620 986 3 014 578 624 382 35

5 963 1 107 3 207 581 638 393 37

6 286 1 231 3 382 582 648 404 38

1 800 195 1 174 267 98 62 5