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PRESENTATION OUTLINE
World economic outlook The Domestic economy Future Investment & Growth Way forward?
-0.6 -0.5
Positive Outturn in Trading Partner Countries - Despite Natural Disasters still Positives for Fiji in Trade, Tourism
3.5 4.1 2010(f) 3.9 1.6 2.1 1.8 3.5 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.2 2011(f) 2012(f)
4.0
2.0
1.5 0.9
1.4
1.7
1.6
14.5
10
5.2
4.4
160 Futures
120
80
40
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Apr-97
Apr-99
Apr-01
Apr-03
Apr-05
Apr-07
Apr-09
Apr-11
GOLD PRICES
US $/oz 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Futures
ALUMINIUM PRICES
US$/Tonne US$/Tonne
COPPER PRICES
10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000
6/06 US $2664
1,500 1,000 500 0 1/01/2008 1/09/2008 1/05/2009 1/01/2010 1/09/2010 20/05/2011
6/06 US $9135
2010
2011
Source: Bloomberg
EU Sugar Prices
US cents/1b
38 34
40 35 30
30 26 22
25 20
15 10 5
F u t u r e s
18 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Fiji Sugar Corporation
0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013
Source: Bloomberg
LUMBER PRICES
US $/000 board feet US $/tonne
FISH PRICES
2,000 1,600
500
400
30/05 US $232
300
1,200 800
200
400 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Bloomberg
100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
NZD
-10.2%
USD AUD
+25.4%
-15.2%
In Summary
Positives Global recovery continuing . Positives for our trade, tourism, remittances. Strong emerging economies growth More spending power opens us up for
tourists from China, India etc.
Higher export prices assist our trade balance Favorable exchange rate movements more competitive market for our exports
and tourism especially from Aus and NZ
Actuals
Average 5 Years
Average 10 Years
2
0.6
0 -2 -4 -6 -8 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009(p) 2012(f)
2.7%
0.2 0.0
0.19
0.14
-0.2 Agri Manuf Fish Htl Rl Est Fin Mining Trans Edu Elect Othr Pub Whlsale Cons
TOURISM
Arrivals & Earnings at Record Levels
000s
Visitor Arrivals
Forecast as @ Apr 2011 Annual
663 632
$M 1,200
Earnings
Forecasts as @ April 2011 1,030
800
700
1,000 Annual 980
600
800
500
400
600
300
400
200
200
100
0
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
FISH
Production erratic but Earnings on the rise
000 tonnes 35
Production
$M 250
Exports
30
30
Annual 200
Annual 186
205
25
20
15
14
100
10 50 5
Production
$M 200
Exports
100
120
80 70 62 60 80 88
40
35 40
20
0
1997 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(f)
25%
156
56%
126
100 80 60 40 20 0
2002 2003 2004 2005 29 46 52 68
87
-27%
80
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010(e)
2011(f)
SUGAR
Has sugar bottomed out?
000 tonnes 550 517 500 450 400 350 300 160 250 200 158 150 100 40 50 0
1994 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(f)
Production
$M 320 302
Exports
Annual Forecasts as @ April 2011
280
240
200
185
187
120 79 80
104
132
0
1996 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010(e) 2011(f)
Sources: Fiji Bureau of Statistics Fiji Sugar Corporation Limited and Macroeconomic Committee
GARMENTS
Production up but Export earnings flat
F$M 200 189 180 322 320 Annual
Production
$M 360
Exports
98
40
80
20
40
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010(e)2011(f)
0
2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010(e) 2011(f)
TIMBER
Production & Exports upsee huge potential in Forestry up
Production
000 m3 900 Annual 800 721 700 602 600 70 59 Forecast As @ Apr 2011 $M 90
Exports
83
578
60
500 385
50
400
40
300
30
200
20
100
10
TOTAL EXPORTS*
$M 2,000
Annual 21% Forecasts as @ Apr 2011
1,500
1,129 1,183 1,206 1,193 1,202 1,210
1,471 1,230
1,000
500
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010(e) 2011(f)
TOTAL IMPORTS*
$M
4,000
3,535 3,096 3% 2,875 2,723 2,502 1,969 2,083 2,808 2,897
3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
11.4% 3,227
2010(e) 2011(f)
IMPORTS - 2011
Contributions to Growth
Percentage points
10
8.3
$1,040M
Mineral fuel and food imports account for around 47% of total imports
11.4%
4
1.9
$531M
0.6
$587M
0.2
$282M Miscel Manuf Gds
0.2
$269M Chemicals
0
Mineral Fuels Food Mach&Tran Equp
* Contribution of mineral fuel re-exports to imports growth
PERSONAL REMITTANCES
Remittance inflows stabilise but industry more bullish!
$M
400
Annual 322
300
232 213
297
311
294 256
295
287
200
188
100
0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(p)
Sources: Fiji Island Bureau of Statistics and Macroeconomic Committee
CURRENT ACCOUNT
$M
1,500
1,000
-226
-3.2% of GDP
-500
-1,000
-19.3% of GDP
-18.2% of GDP
-1,118
-1,233
-1,204
-2,000 2002(r)
2003(r)
2004(r)
2005(r)
2006(r)
2007(r)
2008(r)
2009(r)
2010(e)
2011(f)
2012(f)
741
729
805
4
559
2
BANKS LIQUIDITY
With the foreign exchange inflows there is ample Liquidity in the System.
F$ M 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan-09
15 404 Devaluation Date 15-Apr-09
559
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
As @ 1st Jun
12
10
Time Deposit Rate 4.29% Savings Deposit Rate 1.17%
0
Apr-06 Aug-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11
Percentage $2,867 35 30 25 20 15 10
3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000
Jan-06 Aug-06 Mar-07 Oct-07 May-08 Dec-08 Jul-09 Feb-10 Sep-10
3.3%
5 0 -5 -10 -15
Apr-11
INFLATION
2011 Year-End Inflation Forecast at 7.0 Percent YearPercentage
12 10 8 6 4 2.7 2 0 -2 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A Devaluation
8.1% Y-on-Y Excluding Food & Energy 10.5% (VAT+FEA Tariff + OIL/Food)
2009
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2010
2011
% of GDP
20
16
13.3 542 499
12
8.8
9.2
8
263 229 5.2 67 1.7 76 1.7 111 2.0 3.9
INVESTMENT IN FIJI
% of GDP 35
Total Investment levels have been low for some time! Our economic performance is clearly reflective of this!
15
5.5 %
10
3.5 %
5
5.0 %
0 1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007(e) 2010(f)
INVESTMENT
Low in comparison to others
% of GDP
50
China
2009
Ease of Doing Business Singapore New Zealand United States Australia Samoa Fiji Tonga China Kiribati Papua New Guinea India
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Change in rank 6 -1 -5 -1 -2 3 1
Change in rank -1 3 -6 -2 -3 -1 5 2 3
50 46 44 77 103 63 117
44 44 41 76 108 65 120
IMPEDIMENTS TO INVESTMENT
RBF Survey 1999
Major Impediments found: in no particular order of priority Government policy uncertainty Red tape and bureaucracy General economic climate Finding skilled labour Political situation Law and order issues Lack of infrastructure High Utility costs (eg. water and electricity) Land tenure instability
Reserve Bank of Fiji
IMPEDIMENTS TO INVESTMENT
Have we addressed the issues from 1999?
Impediments: Government policy uncertainty Actions Feedback obtained by RBF Govt Investment Packages and policies introduced over the years Need proper follow through eg. Develop the North policyno markets, infrastructure problems No about-turns/ transparency critical Transparency of tender processes for Govt funded projects Ensure proper regulation/licensing of builders to maintain construction industry standards Treat local and foreign investors the same
IMPEDIMENTS TO INVESTMENT
Have we addressed the issues from 1999?
Impediments: Red tape and bureaucracy Actions Feedback obtained by RBF PMs Office & Commerce Ministry working to improve investment approvals process Proposal for an EDB Take investors by the hand approvals process Approval process must be investor friendly with quick turnaround time Numerous approvals required across many agencies Where is the one stop shop? Approving Agencies protecting their turf
Proposed
Implemented
1600
1200
1,044
800
639
687 591
400 223 94 0 17
2007
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2008
2009
2010
Source: Investment Fiji
IMPEDIMENTS TO INVESTMENT
Have we addressed the issues from 1999?
Impediments: General economic climate Actions Feedback obtained by RBF
IMPEDIMENTS TO INVESTMENT
Have we addressed the issues from 1999?
Impediments: Finding skilled labour Actions Feedback obtained by RBF Govt set up National Employment Centre to facilitate training to up skill workers 15,000 NEC registrations with training started Initial NEC placements underway We have an educated, English-speaking workforce (positive for call-centers) FNU should stick to teaching relevant Trades to cater to demand in these areas
IMPEDIMENTS TO INVESTMENT
Have we addressed the issues from 1999?
Actions Feedback obtained by RBF Govt committed to elections in 2014 under the Electoral Reforms Assistance on electoral reforms from Indonesia Continuing wait and see attitude by local investors Law and order issues Reforms in the Judiciary Visible progress in policing Judiciary operating smoothly Case backlog still an issue
Reserve Bank of Fiji
IMPEDIMENTS TO INVESTMENT
Have we addressed the issues from 1999?
Impediments:
Lack of infrastructure
Actions
High Utility costs (eg. water and electricity) and inconsistent supply.
Promotion of renewable energy projects to keep down costs (FEA Nadarivatu Hydro Project, etc.) Corporatization of Water Authority to improve consistency of supply (ADB Funded Suva Nausori water project)
IMPEDIMENTS TO INVESTMENT
Have we addressed the issues from 1999?
Impediments: Land tenure uncertainty Accessibility to land Actions Feedback obtained by RBF New Land Use Decree (Land Bank) Around 1,115 hectares committed to the land bank by landowners o/w 226 hectares already leased for periods up to 20 to 30 years Win-win situation for landowners and tenants Equitable distribution of rental to landowners
2011
$116.0
$192 m
TOURISM
Project
SSS International Hotel (Fiji) Ltd
Location
Value of investment
Progress to date
Stage 1 - Completed Stage 2 - Construction to start later this year Target completion - 2012
Nasau, Nadi
$40 million
Tabua Sands Warwick International Hotels Naviti Resort Warwick Fiji Resort Denarau
$4 million - renovations $14 million - additional rooms $2.5 million - furniture upgrade $5 million - for next 3 yrs Work has started Bridge/Marina/Sandworks Completed Peppars Naisoso Island Resort - Civil & Earthworks underway Work has not started yet
Westin Denarau
Total value - $230 million Naisoso Island Nadi Full project to be completed by 2017
TOURISM
Project
Fun World Center Ltd
continued
Progress to date
Stage 1 Completed Stage 2 Construction underway At designing stage Construction expected to start in July
Location
Value of Investment
$15 million
Nadi
Suva
No details available
Nadi
FNPF to either sell property outright or opt Revalued at $55 million against for joint venture Fund exposure of $61 million EOI on joint venture called last year
MINING
Project Developer Location Potential Production & Employment Progress to-date
Wainivesi Gold
250,000 tonnes Currently in small-scale production of ore every Royalty payment made to Govt. and year for five land-owners on first shipment of years. ores Paid for surface lease 50 years in 20-25 workers advance employed 240,000 ounces NML seeking mining license gold reserves Company currently exploration phase is Phase 1 exploration works in Presence of high quality gold deposits confirmed via surface sampling
Newcrest Wailevu, Mining Ltd Vanua Levu (NML) Lion One Ltd Sabeto Lautoka
MINING
Project Developer Location
continued
Progress to-date
Bauxite
Nawailevu, Bua
Mining lease issued in May 2011 Major export destination China A $4 million jetty expected to built in Bua
Life of Nawailevu Mine 2 years Copper Newcrest, Mitsubishi & Nittetsu (Namosi JV). Namosi Employment -100 workers Amount of ore reserves not fully determined at this stage. Between Nadi Sigatoka Ore reserve - 0.13 million tonnes Awaiting surface lease from NLTB. Mining lease to be issued after the issue of surface lease
Source: Media, Industry liaison, company websites
Drilling works continuing Feasibility studies underway at the Waiyaka and Waisoi corridors
Manganese
FORESTRY
Company
Pine/ Chips Tropik Woods Limited/ Fiji Pine Limited
Location
Viti & Vanua Levu &13,000 ha of plantations across the Maritime zone Viti Levu
Potential
59,000 hectares
Value
Current Price - $US 155.50 per tonne equivalent to around FJ$273 per tonne. Over a billion dollars
Progress to-date
Harvesting in Vanua Levu deferred due to delay in construction of the loading tower First shipment of pine chips to Japan delayed to Q4 Local value-adding will fetch higher returns for Fiji FFF also received lease to plant teak in Nadroga Listing on the South Pacific Stock Exchange
Mahogany
41,000 hectares
Teak
Ra Province
FISHING
ACCESS TO EU MARKET Progress to Date Only 1 fish processing company (Golden Ocean) , out of 6, is currently EU compliant
Entry into the EU market will attract investment into the fishing industry , especially in processing
Benchmarking against high EU standards - will assist Fiji to export more fish to any destination overseas
RENEWABLE ENERGY
Project Developer Location Capacity Invest. Value
$300 million
Progress to-date
Nadarivatu Hydro
FEA
Nadarivatu
41.7MwH
Biomass
Vuda
17.4MwH
$65 million
Project construction to employ 200 workers Plantation will employ 215 workers 20-25 will be employed at the Plant Save $40 million in foreign reserves Roads connecting to site completed Chinese engineers finalising designs Fully funded by the Chinese Govt
Somosomo Hydro
Department of Energy
Taveuni
700KwH
$20 million
BA
30MwH
Expressions of Interest - called Jan. 2011 $100 million Preliminary geological studies completed Preliminary agreement with FEA to purchase production
Source: Media, Industry liaison, company websites
Namosi
25 MwH
It is crucial that we MAINTAIN MACROECONOMIC & POLITICAL STABILITY to provide the foundation for INVESTORS
TO DO THIS
We must:
Grow the Economy Create an environment conducive to Investment Maintain Law and Order Continue to Promote a Sound Financial System Speed Up Structural Reforms
Only if we do these things will we realise our potential for Investment and Growth!
VINAKA